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Revision as of 05:38, 3 June 2013

Australian federal election, 2013
← 2010 14 September 2013[1]
All 150 seats in the Australian House of Representatives
and 40 (of the 76) seats in the Australian Senate
Opinion polls
  Julia Gillard Tony Abbott
Leader Julia Gillard Tony Abbott
Party Labor Liberal/National coalition
Leader since 24 June 2010 (2010-06-24) 1 December 2009 (2009-12-01)
Leader's seat Lalor Warringah
Last election 72 seats 72 seats
Current seats 71 seats 72 seats
Seats needed Increase5 Increase4
2010 TPP 50.1% 49.9%
TPP polling 44% 56%
BPM polling 39% 40%
Incumbent Prime Minister

Julia Gillard
Labor



At the 2013 Australian federal election members will be elected for the 44th Parliament of Australia. Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced it will be held on 14 September 2013. No writ of election has been issued, and the date is thus still subject to change, though it must be held no later than 30 November. The centre-left Labor minority government she leads will attempt to win a third term against the opposition centre-right Coalition led by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, a Liberal.

At federal level, Australia has compulsory voting (since 1925) and uses a preferential ballot system (since 1919) in single-member seats for the House of Representatives and a single transferable vote system (since 1949) with optional group voting tickets (since 1984) in the proportionally representative Senate. The election will be conducted by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC).

Current Parliament

House of Representatives

Current House of Representatives seat numbers

Government (71)
  Labor (71)

Opposition
Coalition (72)
  Liberal (44)
  LNP (20)
  Nationals (6)
  Nat. WA (1)
  CLP (1)

Crossbench (7)
  Ind. (5)
  Greens (1)
  KAP (1)
See also: House of Representatives results for the Australian federal election, 2010

At the 2010 federal election, Labor and the Liberal/National Coalition each won 72 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, four short of the requirement for majority government, resulting in the first hung parliament since the 1940 federal election. On the crossbench, one member of the Australian Greens, one member of the National Party of Western Australia, and four independent members held the balance of power. After gaining the support of the Greens and three independents on confidence and supply votes, Labor was able to form a minority government with a 76–74 margin.[2]

Changes in House numbers

On 24 November 2011, Harry Jenkins resigned as Speaker of the House of Representatives and returned to the Labor backbench. Later that day, Deputy Speaker Peter Slipper was elected Speaker and quit the Liberal National Party to become an independent. This changed nominal confidence and supply numbers on the floor of the house from 75–74 to 76–73.[3][4] In January 2012, Andrew Wilkie declined to continue giving confidence to the incumbent government, changing numbers to 75–73 in the event of his abstention, or 75–74 in the event of his support for a vote of no confidence in the government. In April 2012, Labor's Craig Thomson moved to the crossbenches as an independent MP, and in May, WA National Tony Crook moved from the crossbenches to the Nationals, and therefore the Coalition. Changes brought the government to 71 seats, the Coalition 72 seats, and seven crossbenchers. On 9 October 2012, after an unsuccessful vote of no confidence in the Speakership, Slipper resigned as Speaker and was replaced by Labor Deputy Speaker Anna Burke. Slipper remains an independent MP.

Pendulum

See also: Post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2010 and Pre-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2013

Senate

Current Senate seat numbers

Government (31)
  Labor (31)

Opposition
Coalition (34)
  Liberal (24)
  LNP (6)
  Nationals (3)
  CLP (1)

Crossbench (11)
  Greens (9)
  DLP (1)
  Ind. (1)
See also: Senate results for the Australian federal election, 2010

Currently, the 76-seat Senate is made up of senators from the Coalition (34), Australian Labor Party (31), Australian Greens (9), Democratic Labor Party (1), and one independent senator, Nick Xenophon. The Greens hold the sole balance of power. Previously the Greens held a shared balance of power with the Family First Party and Xenophon.

Of the 76 Senate seats, 40 are to be contested. This corresponds to half of each state's allocation as well as both senators from each of the territories. Newly-elected senators will commence their terms on 1 July 2014. The table below summarises the seats that will be contested.

State/Territory Seats ALP Coalition Greens Other
NSW 6 3 3
VIC 6 3 3
QLD 6 3 3
WA 6 2 3 1
SA 6 2 2 1 1 (Ind., Xenophon)
TAS 6 3 2 1
ACT 2 1 1
NT 2 1 1
Total 40 18 18 3 1
Hold over 2010 36 13 16 6 1 (DLP)
Grand Total 76 31 34 9 2

Factors affecting the date of the election

The precise date of the next election is a matter for the Prime Minister to determine, and the Governor-General is bound by convention to accept the Prime Minister's advice, assuming it is consistent with the Constitution of Australia and the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA).

Election period

On 30 January 2013, at a speech at the National Press Club, Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced the election would be held on Saturday 14 September 2013. She said she has not yet formally advised the Governor-General but that this would be done in time for the writs of election to be issued on 12 August 2013;[5] it therefore remains possible the date could change.

The Broadcasting Services Act 1992 was checked by various commercial broadcasting media outlets and media councils as a result of Gillard's announcement.[6] The Act says, in part,

"Election period" means:
(a) in relation to any other election to a Parliament – the period that starts on:
– (i) the day on which the proposed polling day for the election is publicly announced; or
- (ii) the day on which the writs for the election are issued;
whichever happens first, and ends at the close of the poll on the polling day for the election;

— Broadcasting Services Act 1992, Schedule 2, Section 1

and

PART 2
b. (i) If, during an election period, a broadcaster broadcasts election matter, the broadcaster must give reasonable opportunities for the broadcasting of election matter to all political parties contesting the election, being parties which were represented in either House of the Parliament for which the election is to be held at the time of its last meeting before the election period.

— Broadcasting Services Act 1992, Schedule 2, Section 3(2)

This is interpreted as "equal time, over time" rather than equal time in the same broadcast, and that this requirement began with the announcement on 30 January 2013.[6]

Latest possible date

The next federal election cannot be held later than Saturday 30 November 2013. This date is determined as follows:

Law Requirement Comments
Constitution: Section 28[7] The House of Representatives has a maximum term of three years Following the 2010 election, the 43rd Parliament first met on 28 September 2010[8] and will expire on 27 September 2013
Constitution: Section 32[9] Writs must be issued within 10 days of the expiry of the House 10 days after 27 September 2013 is 7 October 2013
CEA: Section 156 (1)[10] Nominations of candidates must close at least 10 days but no more than 27 days after the date of the writ 27 days after 7 October 2013 is 3 November 2013
CEA: Section 157[11] Election day must be at least 23 days but no more than 31 days after close of nominations 31 days after 3 November 2013 is Wednesday 4 December 2013
CEA: Section 158[12] Election day must be a Saturday The Saturday prior to 4 December is 30 November 2013

Note that Section 28 of the Constitution also allows the House to be dissolved earlier than the maximum term. The Prime Minister may advise the Governor-General at any time to dissolve the Parliament and issue writs for a new election. Of Australia's 42 completed parliaments, only one, the 3rd Parliament (1907–1910), continued for the full three years; all the others were dissolved earlier.[13]

Scenarios

  • Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State"
  • Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of Senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.

Federal elections usually consist of a full election for the lower house, and an election for approximately half the membership of the Senate, held on the same day.[14] However, it is possible for the elections for the Houses to become unsynchronised due to early elections. The Constitution requires a half-Senate election to be held between 1 July 2013 and 30 June 2014, but the first possible date consistent with other requirements would be 3 August 2013. Should the current parliament run to or near its full term (27 September 2013), the elections for the two Houses would coincide.[15] However, if a House of Representatives election is held earlier than 3 August 2013, a separate half-Senate election would be required.[16]

A double dissolution, which would have involved the entire parliament being elected, is no longer possible. There are two reasons for this: (a) No legislation has been twice blocked by the Senate, hence there is no trigger for a double dissolution.[17] (b) A double dissolution is prohibited within the six months before the expiry of the parliament by effluxion of time. Unless it is dissolved earlier, the parliament will expire on 27 September, so a double dissolution could only have occurred on or before 27 March 2013.

Hung parliament

The current parliament is a hung parliament. It is therefore possible that the government may change without an election if the cross-bench members decide to change their support to the opposition. This last happened following the 1940 federal election when crossbenchers changed their support from the UAP's Robert Menzies to Labor's John Curtin.[18] It is also possible that the government might fall with no one party or group being able to command the confidence of the House of Representatives, which would trigger an election. The Government could lose its majority because a member of one of the government parties died, resigned, or otherwise lost office, triggering a by-election. To avoid triggering a general election in these circumstances, the Prime Minister could advise the Governor-General to suspend ("prorogue") parliament until the outcome of the by-election was known. Alternatively, the Opposition could agree to voluntarily suspend one of its number voting so that the government retains an effective majority. This is a practice known as "pairing".[16]

Retiring MPs and Senators

Where a Member of the House of Representatives does not renominate to contest the election, their term will end at the dissolution of the parliament.

Where a Senator does not renominate to contest the election, their term will end on 30 June 2014, unless they represent the Australian Capital Territory or the Northern Territory, in which case their term will end on 13 September 2013, the day before polling day. That date also applies to territory senators who contest the election but are defeated.

Members and Senators who have indicated their intention to retire are as follows:

Labor

Liberal

LNP

National

WA Nationals

Polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the Australian federal election, 2013
Primary Vote Two Party Preferred
Better Prime Minister Net Leadership Satisfaction

2013 election campaign timeline

  • 30 January – Julia Gillard announces planned election date of 14 September 2013.[5]
  • 31 January – Independent Member for Dobell Craig Thomson (a former ALP member) is arrested for alleged fraud[40]
  • 2 February – Attorney-General Nicola Roxon announces she will be retiring at the election. Higher Education Minister Senator Chris Evans, whose term was not due to finish until 2017, announces he will be resigning in the near future.[41]
  • 19 February – Greens leader Christine Milne announces that the alliance agreement with the ALP is over, but her party will not vote against confidence or supply.[42]
  • 26 February – Gillard announces she will 'campaign' in western Sydney for the following week, from Sunday night until Friday. It is announced that she will pay for her accommodation, as will her staff and the Sydney-based Ministers and their staff, as they have accommodation in Sydney and so are not entitled to travelling allowance.[43]
  • 19 March – Richard Torbay is forced to resign from The Nationals, forfeiting his candidature for the Division of New England.[44] Barnaby Joyce puts his name forward as a possible replacement candidate, hoping to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives.[45]
  • 21 March – Simon Crean asks Gillard for a party leadership vote, and publicly declares his support for Kevin Rudd. In parliament, the Opposition attempts to suspend standing orders for a no confidence vote and although gaining 73 votes to the government's 71 votes, fails to gain the absolute majority of 76 votes required. Crean is sacked from the ministry. At the leadership ballot no alternative candidate nominates, and Gillard is re-elected as ALP leader unopposed.[46] Rudd supporters Joel Fitzgibbon, Ed Husic, Janelle Saffin, and Richard Marles quit their positions in the executive government.[47]
  • 22 March – Rudd issues a statement that he will never again return to the ALP leadership.[48] Kim Carr, Martin Ferguson, and Chris Bowen quit their ministries.[49][50][51]
  • 23 March – Key independent MP Andrew Wilkie warns that ongoing instability within the ALP means the government will have difficulty surviving a vote of confidence when parliament resumes in May.[52]
  • 2 May - The Opposition indicates it will support the Government's National Disability Insurance Scheme policy, including an increase in the Medicare levy from 1.5% to 2%.[53][54]

Party policies for the 2013 election

References

  1. ^ "Gillard announces election date". ABC News. Retrieved 30 January 2013.
  2. ^ By online political correspondent Emma Rodgers (7 September 2010). "Labor clings to power". ABC News. Retrieved 8 September 2010. {{cite web}}: |author= has generic name (help)
  3. ^ "Slipper long plotted against us: LNP". News.smh.com.au. 24 November 2011. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
  4. ^ Renee, By (27 November 2011). "How Labor lured Peter Slipper to Speaker's chair in Federal Parliament". News.com.au. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
  5. ^ a b Malcolm Farr and Simon Benson (30 January 2013). "Julia Gillard announces federal election date". News.com.au. Retrieved 3 February 2013.
  6. ^ a b David Crowe (2 February 2013). "Equal political broadcast time 'starts now'". The Australian. Retrieved 3 February 2013.
  7. ^ "Commonwealth Of Australia Constitution Act – Section 28". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 8 September 2010.
  8. ^ "Parliament to sit on September 28". News.smh.com.au. 9 September 2010. Retrieved 15 September 2010.
  9. ^ "Commonwealth Of Australia Constitution Act – Section 32". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 25 October 2012.
  10. ^ "Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 156". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 8 September 2010.
  11. ^ "Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 157". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 8 September 2010.
  12. ^ "Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 158". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 8 September 2010.
  13. ^ Rob Lundie, Australian elections timetable, Parliament of Australia
  14. ^ The four Senators from the territories have their terms tied to the House of Representatives.
  15. ^ "Antony Green's Election Blog: Timetable for Future Australian Elections". Blogs.abc.net.au. 12 November 2011. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
  16. ^ a b "What Will Happen if there is an Early Election?". Antony Green's Election Blog. ABC News. 10 September 2010. Retrieved 15 September 2010.
  17. ^ Green, Antony. "2013 Federal Election Calendar". abc.net.au. Retrieved 18 December 2012.
  18. ^ "Hung Parliament – Where to from here?". Blogs.abc.net.au. 27 August 2010. Retrieved 8 September 2010.
  19. ^ "Labor MP Martin Ferguson announces he will retire at election". ABC News. 29 May 2013. Retrieved 29 May 2013.
  20. ^ Jeremy Thompson (29 August 2011). "Labor MP to stand down". ABC News. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
  21. ^ "Federal MP Sharon Grierson announces retirement". theherald.com.au. 18 July 2012. Retrieved 18 July 2012.
  22. ^ "Jenkins announces retirement from politics". ABC News. 26 July 2012. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  23. ^ Scott, Steven (27 November 2012). "Federal Labor Capricornia MP Kirsten Livermore announces she will not contest the next election". The Courier Mail. Retrieved 27 November 2012.
  24. ^ "McClelland to quit politics". ABC News. 29 January 2013.
  25. ^ "Nicola Roxon to quit politics: reports". The Age. 2 February 2013.
  26. ^ http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/wa-labor-senator-bishop-to-retire-20130415-2hv87.html
  27. ^ Kenny, Mark (28 January 2013). "Crossin calls for NT stolen generation payout". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 30 January 2013.
  28. ^ "Senate President Hogg announces retirement". ABC News. 10 August 2012. Retrieved 10 August 2012.
  29. ^ "Lib MP to quit federal politics". ninemsn. 25 January 2012. Retrieved 25 January 2012.
  30. ^ a b "Mal Washer and Judi Moylan – True liberals in a conservative heartland". The Body Politic. 28 July 2011. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
  31. ^ "Alby Schulz to retire". The Sydney Morning Herald. 17 April 2012. Retrieved 9 January 2013.
  32. ^ "The World Today". Abc.net.au. 15 August 2011. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
  33. ^ "Libs search for new senators". The West Australian. 10 April 2012.
  34. ^ Adcock, Frances (10 October 2012). "Bundaberg MP Paul Neville to quit". Retrieved 11 October 2012.
  35. ^ "Lib speaks for himself, defies gag by Abbott". The Canberra Times. 25 September 2010.
  36. ^ "Veteran Boswell won't renominate for Senate". The Brisbane Times. 21 September 2012.
  37. ^ "Another LNP senator to retire". news.com.au. 8 October 2012.
  38. ^ "Veteran Nationals MP John Forrest retires". ABC News. 6 March 2013. Retrieved 6 March 2013.
  39. ^ "WA National Tony Crook to quit federal politics". The Australian. AAP. 9 April 2013. Retrieved 13 April 2013.
  40. ^ Cullen, Simon (31 January 2013). "Police arrest MP Craig Thomson on 150 fraud charges". ABC news. Retrieved 20 February 2013.
  41. ^ Mark Kenny; Jessica Wright (2 February 2013). "Roxon, Evans shock resignations prompt cabinet reshuffle". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 20 February 2013.
  42. ^ Patrick Lion; Malcolm Farr (19 February 2013). "Christine Milne says Labor has walked away from its agreement with Greens". news.com.au. Retrieved 20 February 2013.
  43. ^ Julia Gillard 'campaigning', not governing, in western Sydney, Sid Maher and Dennis Shanahan, The Australian, 27 February 2013 12:00AM
  44. ^ Salusinszky, Imre (20 March 2013). "Richard Torbay quits NSW parliament after being dumped from Nationals federal preselection". The Australian. Retrieved 20 March 2013.
  45. ^ Packham, Ben (20 March 2013). "Barnaby Joyce ready to take on Tony Windsor in New England after Richard Torbay is dumped". The Australian. Retrieved 20 March 2013.
  46. ^ "Julia Gillard wins leadership unopposed". Yahoo7. 21 March 2013. Retrieved 21 March 2013.
  47. ^ Robertson, James (21 March 2013). "Body count: Rudd supporters quit their posts". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 21 March 2013.
  48. ^ Packham, Ben (22 March 2013). "I'm giving up on leadership: Kevin Rudd". The Australian. Retrieved 22 March 2013.
  49. ^ Packham, Ben (22 March 2013). "Chris Bowen quits after failed leadership coup, Julia Gillard says more may go". The Australian. Retrieved 22 March 2013.
  50. ^ AAP (22 March 2013). "Kim Carr resigns human services portfolio". Herald Sun. Retrieved 22 March 2013.
  51. ^ AAP (22 March 2013). "Martin Ferguson resigns from cabinet". ninemsn.com.au. Retrieved 22 March 2013.
  52. ^ http://www.gladstoneobserver.com.au/news/wilkie-warns-labor-over-vote-no-confidence/1803817/
  53. ^ Cullen, Simon. "Abbott supports NDIS levy, with conditions". abc.net.au. Retrieved 13 May 2013.
  54. ^ AAP (2 May 2013). "Gillard welcomes Abbott support for NDIS". The Australian. Retrieved 13 May 2013.
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