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2017 German federal election: Difference between revisions

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Revision as of 11:12, 6 August 2014

Next German federal election
← 2013 Between 27 August and 22 October 2017
All 631 seats in the Bundestag
316 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Angela Merkel Sigmar Gabriel
Party CDU/CSU SPD
Leader since 10 April 2000 13 November 2009
Leader's seat Vorpommern-Rügen – Vorpommern-Greifswald I Salzgitter – Wolfenbüttel
Last election 311 seats, 41.5% 193 seats, 25.7%
 
Leader Katja Kipping and
Bernd Riexinger 		Cem Özdemir and
Simone Peter
Party Left Greens
Leader since 2 June 2012 19 October 2013
15 November 2008
Leader's seat Saxony (List)
―
(did not run in 2013) 		Baden-Württemberg (List)
―
(did not run in 2013)
Last election 64 seats, 8.6% 63 seats, 8.4%
Incumbent Chancellor

Angela Merkel
CDU/CSU



The Next German federal election will elect the members of the Bundestag, the federal parliament of Germany, on a to be determined date.

German laws require that the next election should take place on a Sunday between 46-48 months after the assembly's first sitting. Since the current Bundestag first sat on 22 October 2013, the latest date the next election can be held on is 22 October 2017 (a Sunday). The earliest date is 27 August 2017, the first Sunday after 22 August. By convention, recent elections have been held in late September, avoiding the school holidays. Elections can be held earlier under certain conditions, such as if a government loses a confidence motion.

Background

In the previous federal election, which took place in 2013, the incumbent government, composed of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to achieve a majority of seats. The FDP failed to get over 5% of the vote, denying the party seats in the Bundestag for the first time in their history. In contrast, the CDU/CSU won their best result since 1990, with nearly 42% of the vote and just short of 50% of the seats. Merkel's party successfully negotiated with the Social Democrats (SPD) to form a grand coalition.

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

15-day average trend line of poll results from September 2013 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date Polling Firm CDU/
CSU 		SPD Left Green FDP AfD Others Lead
style="background:Template:The Left (Germany)/meta/color; width:40px;"| style="background:Template:Alliance '90/The Greens/meta/color; width:40px;"|
1–4 Aug INSA 41.0 25.0 9.5 9.5 3.0 4.5 7.5 15.5
28 Jun–1 Aug Forsa 43.0 24.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 19.0
24–30 Jul Emnid 42.0 25.0 9.0 10.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 17.0
25–28 Jul INSA 40.0 24.5 9.0 10.5 3.5 5.0 7.5 15.5
21–25 Jul Forsa 43.0 22.0 10.0 10.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 21.0
17–23 Jul Emnid 41.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 16.0
18–21 Jul INSA 41.0 24.0 9.0 10.0 3.5 6.0 6.5 17.0
16–21 Jul GMS 40.0 26.0 8.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 14.0
14–18 Jul Forsa 43.0 22.0 10.0 10.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 21.0
15–17 Jul FGW 41.0 24.0 9.0 11.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 17.0
15–16 Jul Infratest dimap 40.0 26.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 14.0
10–16 Jul Emnid 40.0 26.0 9.0 10.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 14.0
11–14 Jul INSA 40.0 24.0 9.0 11.0 3.5 6.0 6.5 16.0
7–11 Jul Forsa 41.0 23.0 9.0 11.0 3.0 6.0 7.0 18.0
28 Jun-11 Jul Allensbach 40.5 25.0 8.5 11.0 3.5 6.0 5.5 15.5
3–9 Jul Emnid 40.0 25.0 9.0 11.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 15.0
4–7 Jul INSA 40.0 25.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 5.5 6.5 15.0
30 Jun–4 Jul Forsa 41.0 23.0 9.0 11.0 3.0 6.0 7.0 18.0
30 Jun–2 Jul Infratest dimap 39.0 26.0 9.0 11.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 13.0
27 Jun–2 Jul Emnid 40.0 25.0 9.0 10.0 3.0 6.0 7.0 15.0
27–30 Jun INSA 41.0 24.0 9.0 10.0 3.5 6.0 6.5 17.0
23–27 Jun Forsa 41.0 23.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 7.0 6.0 18.0
23–25 Jun FGW 39.0 25.0 9.0 11.0 3.0 6.0 7.0 14.0
19–25 Jun Emnid 40.0 25.0 9.0 10.0 3.0 7.0 6.0 15.0
20–23 Jun INSA 40.5 24.0 9.0 11.0 3.0 6.0 6.5 16.5
17–23 Jun GMS 39.0 25.0 9.0 11.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 14.0
16–20 Jun Forsa 41.0 23.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 7.0 6.0 18.0
17–18 Jun Infratest dimap 39.0 25.0 8.0 12.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 14.0
12–17 Jun Emnid 39.0 25.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 7.0 6.0 14.0
13–16 Jun INSA 39.5 25.0 8.5 11.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 14.5
10–13 Jun Forsa 39.0 23.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 7.0 7.0 16.0
28 May–13 Jun Allensbach 40.0 26.0 8.0 10.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 14.0
5–11 Jun Emnid 39.0 25.0 10.0 11.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 14.0
6–10 Jun INSA 39.0 24.5 9.0 11.0 4.5 6.5 5.5 14.5
2–6 Jun Forsa 39.0 23.0 10.0 9.0 4.0 8.0 7.0 16.0
2–4 Jun FGW 39.0 26.0 9.0 11.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 13.0
2–4 Jun Infratest dimap 38.0 26.0 9.0 11.0 4.0 7.0 5.0 12.0
28 May–4 Jun Emnid 39.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 3.0 7.0 6.0 14.0
30 May–2 Jun INSA 38.0 26.0 9.0 11.0 3.5 6.0 6.5 12.0
26–30 May Forsa 38.0 23.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 8.0 7.0 15.0
25 May European Election 35.3 27.3 7.4 10.7 3.4 7.0 8.9 8.0
22–27 May Emnid 39.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 14.0
23–26 May INSA 39.0 26.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 13.0
19–23 May Forsa 40.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 15.0
15–21 May Emnid 39.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 15.0
16–19 May INSA 40.0 25.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 15.0
12–16 May Forsa 40.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 16.0
12–14 May Infratest dimap 39.0 26.0 9.0 11.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 13.0
8–14 May Emnid 39.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 14.0
9–12 May INSA 40.0 23.5 10.0 11.0 4.0 5.5 6.0 16.5
7–12 May GMS 41.0 25.0 9.0 11.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 16.0
5–9 May Forsa 40.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 16.0
25 Apr–9 May Allensbach 39.5 26.0 8.0 10.5 5.0 5.5 5.5 13.5
6–8 May FGW 40.0 25.0 10.0 11.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 15.0
30 Apr–7 May Emnid 40.0 25.0 9.0 11.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 15.0
2–5 May INSA 41.0 25.0 9.0 11.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 16.0
28 Apr–2 May Forsa 41.0 23.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 18.0
28–29 Apr Infratest dimap 40.0 26.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 14.0
24–29 Apr Emnid 40.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 15.0
25–28 Apr INSA 41.5 24.0 9.0 10.0 4.5 5.5 5.5 17.5
22–25 Apr Forsa 41.0 24.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 17.0
22–23 Apr Infratest dimap 41.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 16.0
17–23 Apr Emnid 41.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 17.0
18–21 Apr INSA 41.0 24.5 9.0 10.5 4.5 5.0 5.5 16.5
14–17 Apr Forsa 41.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 17.0
10–16 Apr Emnid 40.0 25.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 15.0
10–15 Apr GMS 41.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 17.0
11–14 Apr INSA 40.5 23.5 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.5 5.5 17.0
7–11 Apr Forsa 41.0 23.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 18.0
8–10 Apr FGW 41.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 16.0
28 Mar–10 Apr Allensbach 40.0 26.5 8.0 11.0 4.5 5.0 5.0 13.5
3–9 Apr Emnid 42.0 23.0 10.0 9.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 19.0
4–7 Apr INSA 41.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 17.0
31 Mar–4 Apr Forsa 42.0 23.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 19.0
31 Mar–2 Apr Infratest dimap 41.0 26.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 15.0
27 Mar–2 Apr Emnid 41.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 3.0 6.0 6.0 17.0
28–31 Mar INSA 41.0 24.5 9.0 11.0 3.0 5.0 6.5 16.5
24–28 Mar Forsa 42.0 23.0 10.0 9.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 19.0
25–27 Mar FGW 41.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 16.0
25–26 Mar Infratest dimap 41.0 25.0 8.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 16.0
20–26 Mar Emnid 41.0 25.0 10.0 11.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 16.0
21–24 Mar INSA 41.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 16.0
17–21 Mar Forsa 41.0 23.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 18.0
13–19 Mar Emnid 41.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 16.0
14–17 Mar INSA 40.5 24.5 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 16.0
12–17 Mar GMS 41.0 24.0 10.0 11.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 17.0
10–14 Mar Forsa 42.0 23.0 10.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 19.0
11–13 Mar FGW 41.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 16.0
1–13 Mar Allensbach 40.5 25.0 9.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 5.5 15.5
6–12 Mar Emnid 41.0 24.0 10.0 11.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 17.0
7–10 Mar INSA 41.0 25.5 8.5 10.0 4.0 5.5 5.5 15.5
3–7 Mar Forsa 42.0 23.0 10.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 19.0
4–5 Mar Infratest dimap 42.0 24.0 9.0 11.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 18.0
27 Feb–5 Mar Emnid 42.0 23.0 10.0 10.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 19.0
28 Feb–3 Mar INSA 41.0 24.5 9.5 11.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 16.5
24–28 Feb Forsa 40.0 22.0 11.0 10.0 4.0 6.0 7.0 18.0
24–26 Feb Infratest dimap 40.0 26.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 14.0
20–26 Feb Emnid 40.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 16.0
21–24 Feb INSA 40.5 25.5 9.0 10.0 4.0 5.5 5.5 15.0
19–24 Feb GMS 41.0 24.0 9.0 11.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 17.0
17–21 Feb Forsa 41.0 22.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 7.0 19.0
18–20 Feb FGW 43.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 19.0
13–19 Feb Emnid 41.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 17.0
14–17 Feb INSA 41.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 16.0
10–14 Feb Forsa 40.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 16.0
1–13 Feb Allensbach 40.0 26.5 9.0 10.5 4.0 5.0 5.0 14.0
6–12 Feb Emnid 41.0 24.0 10.0 11.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 17.0
7–10 Feb INSA 41.0 26.0 9.5 9.0 4.0 5.0 5.5 15.0
3–7 Feb Forsa 41.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 17.0
3–5 Feb Infratest dimap 41.0 27.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 14.0
30 Jan–5 Feb Emnid 42.0 25.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 17.0
31 Jan–3 Feb INSA 41.5 25.0 9.0 9.5 4.0 5.0 6.0 16.5
27–31 Jan Forsa 42.0 24.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 18.0
28–30 Jan FGW 43.0 25.0 9.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 18.0
27–29 Jan Infratest dimap 42.0 27.0 8.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 15.0
23–29 Jan Emnid 42.0 25.0 10.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 17.0
24–27 Jan INSA 41.0 26.5 8.5 9.5 4.5 4.0 6.0 14.5
20–24 Jan Forsa 42.0 23.0 9.0 11.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 19.0
10–23 Jan Allensbach 40.0 26.0 8.5 10.0 5.0 5.0 5.5 14.0
16–22 Jan Emnid 41.0 26.0 9.0 9.0 5.0 4.0 6.0 15.0
17–20 Jan INSA 41.0 26.0 9.0 9.5 4.5 4.0 6.0 15.0
15–20 Jan GMS 42.0 25.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 17.0
13–17 Jan Forsa 41.0 23.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 4.0 7.0 18.0
14–16 Jan FGW 43.0 24.0 10.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 19.0
9–15 Jan Emnid 41.0 26.0 10.0 8.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 15.0
10–13 Jan INSA 41.0 26.0 9.5 10.0 4.0 4.0 5.5 15.0
6–10 Jan Forsa 40.0 23.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 7.0 17.0
6–8 Jan Infratest dimap 41.0 27.0 8.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 14.0
4–8 Jan Emnid 42.0 25.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 17.0
3–6 Jan INSA 41.5 25.0 10.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 5.5 16.5
2–3 Jan Forsa 41.0 23.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 18.0
2014
16–20 Dec Forsa 42.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 4.0 5.0 18.0
17–18 Dec Infratest dimap 42.0 27.0 8.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 15.0
12–18 Dec Emnid 41.0 25.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 16.0
13–16 Dec INSA 42.0 27.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 15.0
9–13 Dec Forsa 42.0 24.0 10.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 18.0
10–12 Dec FGW 42.0 25.0 10.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 17.0
1–12 Dec Allensbach 41.5 25.5 9.0 10.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 16.0
6–9 Dec INSA 42.0 25.0 9.5 10.0 4.0 4.5 5.0 17.0
4–9 Dec GMS 43.0 25.0 9.0 10.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 18.0
2–6 Dec Forsa 43.0 24.0 10.0 9.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 19.0
2–4 Dec Infratest dimap 43.0 25.0 9.0 10.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 18.0
28 Nov–4 Dec Emnid 42.0 26.0 9.0 9.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 16.0
29 Nov–2 Dec INSA 42.5 24.0 9.5 11.0 3.5 4.0 5.5 18.5
25–29 Nov Forsa 42.0 23.0 10.0 10.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 19.0
26–28 Nov FGW 42.0 26.0 10.0 8.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 16.0
21–27 Nov Emnid 41.0 26.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 15.0
22–25 Nov INSA 40.5 25.5 9.0 10.5 4.0 4.0 6.5 15.0
18–22 Nov Forsa 42.0 23.0 10.0 9.0 3.0 5.0 8.0 19.0
8–21 Nov Allensbach 40.0 26.5 9.5 10.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 13.5
19–20 Nov Infratest dimap 42.0 25.0 9.0 10.0 3.0 4.0 7.0 17.0
14–20 Nov Emnid 42.0 25.0 10.0 9.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 17.0
15–18 Nov INSA 41.0 25.0 9.5 10.0 4.0 4.5 6.0 16.0
13–18 Nov GMS 41.0 25.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 16.0
11–15 Nov Forsa 41.0 24.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 17.0
7–13 Nov Emnid 41.0 25.0 10.0 9.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 16.0
6–11 Nov INSA 42.0 25.0 8.5 11.0 4.0 4.5 5.0 17.0
4–8 Nov Forsa 41.0 24.0 10.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 17.0
5–7 Nov FGW 42.0 26.0 9.0 9.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 16.0
4–6 Nov Infratest dimap 42.0 26.0 9.0 10.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 16.0
31 Oct–6 Nov Emnid 41.0 26.0 10.0 9.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 15.0
1–4 Nov INSA 42.0 26.0 9.0 10.5 3.5 4.0 5.0 16.0
28 Oct–1 Nov Forsa 42.0 25.0 9.0 9.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 17.0
24–30 Oct Emnid 42.0 25.0 9.0 9.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 17.0
25–28 Oct INSA 42.0 26.5 9.0 10.0 3.5 4.5 4.5 15.5
21–25 Oct Forsa 42.0 24.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 18.0
21–23 Oct Infratest dimap 40.0 27.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 13.0
17–23 Oct Emnid 41.0 26.0 9.0 10.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 15.0
18–21 Oct INSA 43.0 26.0 8.5 10.0 3.5 4.0 5.0 17.0
14–18 Oct Forsa 43.0 25.0 9.0 8.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 18.0
15–17 Oct FGW 42.0 26.0 10.0 8.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 16.0
10–16 Oct Emnid 42.0 25.0 10.0 9.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 17.0
1–16 Oct Allensbach 41.0 25.0 9.0 9.0 5.0 5.5 5.5 16.0
11–14 Oct INSA 42.0 26.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 6.0 4.0 16.0
9–14 Oct GMS 42.0 25.0 9.0 9.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 17.0
7–11 Oct Forsa 44.0 24.0 8.0 8.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 20.0
8–9 Oct INSA 43.0 25.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 18.0
7–9 Oct Infratest dimap 42.0 26.0 9.0 8.0 3.0 4.5 7.5 16.0
4–9 Oct Emnid 42.0 25.0 10.0 9.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 17.0
30 Sep–4 Oct Forsa 45.0 24.0 8.0 8.0 3.0 6.0 6.0 21.0
26 Sep–1 Oct Emnid 42.0 25.0 9.0 8.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 17.0
23–27 Sep Forsa 42.0 25.0 9.0 8.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 17.0
24–26 Sep FGW 43.0 26.0 10.0 7.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 17.0
24–26 Sep Emnid 43.0 26.0 9.0 7.0 3.0 6.0 6.0 17.0
22 Sep 2013 Election Results 41.5 25.7 8.6 8.4 4.8 4.7 6.3 15.8

References

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