Oscar's grind: Difference between revisions
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'''Oscar's Grind''' is a [[betting strategy]] used by gamblers on wagers where the outcome is [[Even money|evenly distributed]] between two results of equal value (like flipping a coin, betting on red or black in [[roulette]], etc.). It is an archetypal positive progression strategy. It is also called Hoyle's Press. In German and French it is often referred to as the Pluscoup progression.<ref name="roulette30.com">{{Cite web|title = Oscar's Grind system - Pluscoup progression Roulette 30|url = http://www.roulette30.com/2014/01/oscars-grind-system-pluscoup-progression.html|website = www.roulette30.com|accessdate = 2015-10-02}}</ref> It was first documented by Allan Wilson in 1965 in his book ''The Casino Gambler's Guide''.<ref name="masonlynne">{{citation | year=1993 | title = Fundamentals of Craps | author1=Mason Malmuth | author2=Lynne Loomis | publisher=Two Plus Two Publishing | isbn=1-880685-30-2 | page=46 | url=https://books.google.hu/books?id=ktT1ac4f_PoC&pg=PA46 }}</ref> This progression is based on [[Losing Streak|losing]] and [[Winning streak (sports)|winning streaks]], by manipulating the size of the bets so that in the event of a [[losing streak]], a same-length [[Winning streak (sports)|winning streak]] occurs, a profit is obtained. Oscar's Grind works best with a win goal and loss limit. Ideally, the win goal should be half of the original buy-in (e.g. $250 if one starts with $500) and loss limit should be 10 units.<ref name="edellfundamentals">{{citation | year=2005 | title=The Everything Craps Strategy Book: Win Big Every Time! | author=Larry Edell | publisher=F+W Media | isbn=978-1-59337-435-8 | page=105 | url=https://books.google.hu/books?id=Ttp4BNM8IyUC&pg=PA105 }}</ref> The main concept is that there are periods of many wins and periods of many losses. Losses and wins often come in streaks. Ideally, bets are kept low on losing streaks and increased on winning streaks that hopefully will follow.<ref name="roulette30.com"/> |
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Revision as of 16:51, 7 October 2015
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Oscar's Grind is a betting strategy used by gamblers on wagers where the outcome is evenly distributed between two results of equal value (like flipping a coin, betting on red or black in roulette, etc.). It is an archetypal positive progression strategy. It is also called Hoyle's Press. In German and French it is often referred to as the Pluscoup progression.[1] It was first documented by Allan Wilson in 1965 in his book The Casino Gambler's Guide.[2] This progression is based on losing and winning streaks, by manipulating the size of the bets so that in the event of a losing streak, a same-length winning streak occurs, a profit is obtained. Oscar's Grind works best with a win goal and loss limit. Ideally, the win goal should be half of the original buy-in (e.g. $250 if one starts with $500) and loss limit should be 10 units.[3] The main concept is that there are periods of many wins and periods of many losses. Losses and wins often come in streaks. Ideally, bets are kept low on losing streaks and increased on winning streaks that hopefully will follow.[1]
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Description
Oscar's Grind divides the entire gambling event into sessions. One session is sequence of consecutive games played until 1 unit of profit is won. Each session starts by betting 1 unit. Winning the game ends the session, as 1 unit of profit is achieved in the first game. If the gambler loses, the bet is repeated. Each time the gambler wins the game following a lost game, the bet is increased by 1 unit. This increase is not performed if current bet warrants achieving at least 1 unit of profit in total, in case the next game is won. On the contrary, the bet size in such a situation should be decreased to assure exactly 1 unit is won. Given infinite money and time, this makes sure that every session ends with a 1 unit profit.
Algorithm
betsize := 1
profit := 0
REPEAT
Bet
IF bet_won, THEN
profit := profit+betsize
IF profit < 1 THEN
IF profit+betsize+1 > 1 THEN
betsize := 1-profit
ELSE
betsize := betsize+1
ELSE
profit := profit - bet
UNTIL profit = 1
Example
| Betsize | Result | Profit | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LOSS | -1 | Betsize stays the same |
| 1 | LOSS | -2 | Betsize stays the same |
| 1 | LOSS | -3 | Betsize stays the same |
| 1 | LOSS | -4 | Betsize stays the same |
| 1 | LOSS | -5 | Betsize stays the same |
| 1 | WIN | -4 | Betsize is 2 units now |
| 2 | LOSS | -6 | Betsize remains 2 units |
| 2 | WIN | -4 | Betsize increases to 3 units |
| 3 | WIN | -1 | Only 2 units needed to achieve profit |
| 2 | WIN | 1 | Session ends |
Analysis
Oscar's Grind is the same as Martingale-based and Labouchère system in the sense that if you have an infinite amount to wager and time, every session will make a profit. Not meeting these conditions will result in inevitable loss of our entire buy-in in the long run. We can only lose 500 times in a row from a 500 unit bankroll, and if occasional wins come in and increase the betsize, this number decreases significantly. Oscar's Grind is based on losing streaks being 'compensated' by winning streaks in the short run, and e.g. in the example above a 5-long losing streak was equalised by a 3-long winning streak; so if we get 'compensated' with a 5-long winning streak, we get 3 units of profit.[4] The base of the system originates in the hot-hand bias, but winning and losing streaks in gambling have no mathematical ground or proof.
Variations
Oscar's Grind can be applied to non-even bets (streets in roulette or doubling in blackjack) as well, one just has to keep track of the amount and increase the betsize after wins accordingly. There are also variations that try to reduce the variance by waiting for a couple of wins before increasing the betsize. As it is with all betting progressions, no variation of Oscar's Grind will make a profit in the long run.[5]
See also
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References
- ^ a b "Oscar's Grind system - Pluscoup progression Roulette 30". www.roulette30.com. Retrieved 2015-10-02.
- ^ Mason Malmuth; Lynne Loomis (1993), Fundamentals of Craps, Two Plus Two Publishing, p. 46, ISBN 1-880685-30-2
- ^ Larry Edell (2005), The Everything Craps Strategy Book: Win Big Every Time!, F+W Media, p. 105, ISBN 978-1-59337-435-8
- ^ "Oscar's Grind System" (PDF). casino-strategy.com. July 2015. Retrieved 26 August 2015.
- ^ "Why Any Progression Must Fail for Negative Expectancy Games in the Long Run?". imspirit.wordpress.com. December 2012. Retrieved 26 August 2015.