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|[[Forum Research]]
|{{dts|November 5, 2015}}
|[http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/7b72104a-e79d-44e3-99aa-75c7714d30fdON%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2015%2011%2005)%20Forum%20Research.pdf PDF]
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Revision as of 16:25, 11 November 2015

42nd Ontario general election
← 2014 On or before October 4, 2018 (2018-10-04) 43rd →
122 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
62 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  File:Patrick Brown MPP.jpg
Leader Kathleen Wynne Patrick Brown Andrea Horwath
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since January 26, 2013 May 9, 2015 March 7, 2009
Leader's seat Don Valley West Simcoe North Hamilton Centre
Last election 58 seats, 38.65% 28 seats, 31.25% 21 seats, 23.75%
Current seats 59 27 20
Incumbent Premier

Kathleen Wynne
Liberal



The 42nd Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on October 4, 2018. Under amendments passed by the Legislative Assembly of Ontario in 2004, Ontario elections are now held on the first Thursday of October in the fourth calendar year, unless the Assembly is dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario due to a motion of no confidence. Such a dissolution is unlikely as the current government has a majority, though Premier Kathleen Wynne has stated that she may decide to dissolve the Assembly in the spring of 2018 rather than in October of that year in order to avoid any conflict with municipal elections and take advantage of better weather and longer days.[1]

Ridings

On June 4, 2015 the Attorney General of Ontario Hon. Madeleine Meilleur moved the first reading of Bill 115, also referred to as Representation Act, 2015.[2]

Like the previous Representation Act tabled in 2005, 11 ridings have been preserved for Northern Ontario, while the rest of the province will be divided into 111 electoral districts which follow the 2013 Representation Order. Upon the bill receiving Royal Assent, the Assembly's seat count will change from 107 to 122. The changes would take place provided the current Assembly does not dissolve before November 30, 2016.

Standings

Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
Party Party leader Seats
2014 Current
Liberal Kathleen Wynne 58 59
Progressive Conservative Patrick Brown 28 27
New Democratic Andrea Horwath 21 20
  Vacant 1
Total 107 107

Timeline

2014

2015

Incumbent MPPs not running for re-election

Liberals

Opinion polls

Polling firm Last date of polling Link Liberal PC NDP Green Other Type
of poll 		Sample
size 		Margin
of Error
Forum Research November 5, 2015 PDF 30 36 26 6 1 IVR 1,158 ±3% 19 times out of 20
Mainstreet Research September 21, 2015 HTML 30 40 24 7 - IVR 4,610 ±1.5% 19 times out of 20
Forum Research August 13, 2015 PDF 26 35 33 4 2 IVR 1,001 ±3% 19 times out of 20
Forum Research July 5, 2015 PDF 26 32 35 5 2 IVR 678 ±4% 19 times out of 20
Ipsos Reid May 20, 2015 HTML 34 32 25 8 - Online 1,002 ±3.5% 19 times out of 20
Innovative Research May 19, 2015 PDF 34 35 24 6 - Telephone 606 ±4.0% 19 times out of 20
Forum Research May 11, 2015 PDF 24 33 36 5 2 IVR 1,001 ±3% 19 times out of 20
Forum Research April 30, 2015 PDF 29 36 24 9 2 IVR 912 ±3% 19 times out of 20
Innovative Research April 26, 2015 PDF 40 33 18 8 1 Online 1,017
Forum Research March 26, 2015 PDF 29 34 27 8 2 IVR 881 ±3% 19 times out of 20
Environics March 25, 2015 HTML 32 33 27 7 - Telephone 989 ±3.1% 19 times out of 20
Forum Research February 27, 2015 PDF 32 39 21 6 2 IVR 996 ±3% 19 times out of 20
Forum Research January 30, 2015 PDF 37 36 19 6 2 IVR 1,028 ±3% 19 times out of 20
Forum Research December 20, 2014 PDF 35 36 20 7 2 IVR 1,058 ±3% 19 times out of 20
Forum Research November 29, 2014 PDF 37 37 17 7 2 IVR 1,054 ±3% 19 times out of 20
Forum Research November 1, 2014 PDF 40 35 19 4 2 IVR 1,104 ±3% 19 times out of 20
Forum Research October 1, 2014 PDF 36 34 23 6 1 IVR 1,079 ±3% 19 times out of 20
Forum Research August 21, 2014 PDF 39 32 19 8 2 IVR 1,229 ±3% 19 times out of 20
2014 election June 12, 2014 HTML 38.65 31.25 23.75 4.84 1.51

References

  1. ^ Benzie, Robert (June 4, 2015). "Ontario to add 15 MPPs, move 2018 election date ahead". Toronto Star. Retrieved October 25, 2015.
  2. ^ http://www.ontla.on.ca/web/house-proceedings/house_detail.do?Date=2015-06-04&Parl=41&Sess=1&locale=en#P995_171404
  3. ^ "Ontario election 2014: Tim Hudak to step down". CBC News. June 12, 2014. Retrieved June 12, 2014.
  4. ^ "Tim Hudak to quit July 2 amid Tory revolt". Toronto Star. June 18, 2014. Retrieved June 18, 2014.
  5. ^ Brennan, Richard (July 2, 2014). "Progressive Conservatives pick Jim Wilson as interim leader". The Toronto Star. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
  6. ^ "Joe Cimino, Rookie Sudbury NDP MPP, Resigns After 5 Months". The Huffington Post Canada. November 20, 2014. Retrieved November 20, 2014.
  7. ^ "Liberal Glenn Thibeault wins Sudbury byelection". CBC News. February 5, 2015. Retrieved February 6, 2015.
  8. ^ "Barrie MP Patrick Brown resigns seat as he shifts to lead provincial PCs". Ottawa Citizen. May 13, 2015. Retrieved May 18, 2015.
  9. ^ "Gerry Lougheed Jr., Ontario Liberal fundraiser, charged in Sudbury byelection scandal". CBC News. September 24, 2015. Retrieved September 26, 2015.
  10. ^ Shum, David (June 26, 2014). "MPP Glen Murray announces on Twitter he won't run in next election". Global News. Retrieved June 26, 2014.
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