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==Date==
==Date==
The current statutory framework for the setting of a date for polling day in the general election is set out in the Electoral Act 1992 (as amended).<ref name=ElectoralAct1992>{{Cite web|url=http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/1992/en/act/pub/0023/print.html|title=Electoral Act, 1992|publisher=Office of the Attorney General|accessdate=2014-05-27}}</ref> Section 33 of that Act requires that the Dáil be dissolved within five years after its first meeting following the previous election, which was on 9 March 2011.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://oireachtasdebates.oireachtas.ie/debates%20authoring/debateswebpack.nsf/takes/dail2011030900001?opendocument|title=Table of Contents|date=9 March 2011|work=Dáil Éireann debates|accessdate=10 January 2014}}</ref> Section 96 requires that the poll is held, not earlier than the seventeenth day or later than the twenty-fifth day, following the day on which the writs for the election are issued; this count does not include "excluded" days, such as Sundays, Bank Holidays, or Good Friday. The writs for the election are issued by the Clerk of the Dáil on the day the Dáil is dissolved. With these restrictions, the Dáil must be dissolved no later than Tuesday 9 March 2016, and the next general election must take place no later than Friday 8 April 2016.{{refn|name=UpTo7years|group=nb|The current constitutional position is less restrictive. Article 16.5 of the [[Constitution of Ireland]] requires that the same Dáil shall not continue for more than 7 years, but allows for a shorter period to be fixed by law (which is currently fixed at 5 years). Article 16.3.2 of the Constitution of Ireland requires that a general election for members of Dáil Éireann must take place not later than thirty days after the dissolution (whereas the law currently only allows 25 days). So in theory, or in some emergency, the [[Oireachtas]] could amend or replace the Electoral Act 1992 to postpone the election for up to another 2 years and 5 days, or up to 8 April 2018.}}
The current statutory framework for the setting of a date for polling day in the general election is set out in the Electoral Act 1992 (as amended).<ref name=ElectoralAct1992>{{Cite web|url=http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/1992/en/act/pub/0023/print.html|title=Electoral Act, 1992|publisher=Office of the Attorney General|accessdate=2014-05-27}}</ref> Section 33 of that Act requires that the Dáil be dissolved within five years after its first meeting following the previous election, which was on 9 March 2011.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://oireachtasdebates.oireachtas.ie/debates%20authoring/debateswebpack.nsf/takes/dail2011030900001?opendocument|title=Table of Contents|date=9 March 2011|work=Dáil Éireann debates|accessdate=10 January 2014}}</ref> Section 96 requires that the poll is held, not earlier than the seventeenth day or later than the twenty-fifth day, following the day on which the writs for the election are issued; this count does not include "excluded" days, such as Sundays, Bank Holidays, or Good Friday. The writs for the election are issued by the Clerk of the Dáil on the day the Dáil is dissolved. With these restrictions, the Dáil must be dissolved no later than Wednesday 9 March 2016, and the next general election must take place no later than Friday 8 April 2016.{{refn|name=UpTo7years|group=nb|The current constitutional position is less restrictive. Article 16.5 of the [[Constitution of Ireland]] requires that the same Dáil shall not continue for more than 7 years, but allows for a shorter period to be fixed by law (which is currently fixed at 5 years). Article 16.3.2 of the Constitution of Ireland requires that a general election for members of Dáil Éireann must take place not later than thirty days after the dissolution (whereas the law currently only allows 25 days). So in theory, or in some emergency, the [[Oireachtas]] could amend or replace the Electoral Act 1992 to postpone the election for up to another 2 years and 5 days, or up to 8 April 2018.}}


Taoiseach [[Enda Kenny]] suggested at a press conference in September 2013 that the next election would be in March 2016.<ref name="it1529569"/>{{refn|name=AvailableFridays|group=nb|Assuming that Kenny's suggestion proves correct, and that the election takes place on a Friday as has been the norm in recent years to facilitate turnout, and given that [[Good Friday]] [[Template:Dates for Easter|25 March 2016]] is explicitly ruled out as an "excluded day" by Section 2 of the Electoral Act 1992, then the available dates would be Fridays 5, 12 and 19 March 2016.}} This was in the context of speculation that the [[Labour Party (Ireland)|Labour Party]] was unhappy with [[Government of the 31st Dáil|the coalition government]]'s progress and might consider withdrawing and forcing an early election.<ref name="it1529569">{{cite news|url=http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kenny-says-next-election-will-be-held-in-march-2016-1.1529569|title=Kenny says next election will be held in March 2016|last=Beesley|first=Arthur|date=16 September 2013|accessdate=16 September 2013}}</ref> The days around [[Easter Sunday]] on 27 March 2016 will be the culmination of the official commemoration of the centenary of the 1916 [[Easter Rising]],<ref>{{cite web|url=http://ireland.ie/state/|title=State Ceremonial|work=Ireland 2016|publisher=Government of Ireland|accessdate=10 June 2015}}</ref> and there has been speculation that the election would be earlier to avoid clashing with these.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.newstalk.com/Parade-to-mark-99th-anniversary-of-1916-Rising|title=Parade to mark 99th anniversary of 1916 Rising takes place in Dublin|last=Casey|first=Ruairi|date=5 Apr 2015|work=[[Newstalk]]|accessdate=11 June 2015}}</ref><ref name="it2247958">{{cite news|url=http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fine-gael-and-labour-prepare-distinct-election-pitches-1.2247958|title=Fine Gael and Labour prepare distinct election pitches|last=Kelly|first=Fiach|date=13 June 2015|work=[[The Irish Times]]|accessdate=18 June 2015}}</ref> Another factor is that [[Saint Patrick's Day]], 17 March, traditionally sees most ministers make official trips abroad.<ref name="it2247958" /> In June 2015, amid speculation that the election would be in the autumn, Kenny said it would be when the government's programme was completed.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kenny-says-election-will-follow-end-of-coalition-programme-1.2242090|title=Kenny says election will follow end of Coalition programme|last=Kelly|first=Fiach|date=8 June 2015|work=[[The Irish Times]]|accessdate=10 June 2015}}</ref> In early October 2015, media reported that Fine Gael TDs favoured a November election with Labour preferring spring 2016; for a week Kenny gave vague answers to reporters before stating he had "no reason to change [his] mind" from his previous "spring of 2016" preference.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.thejournal.ie/election-november-february-analysis-2382621-Oct2015/|title=Why nobody is a winner after Enda forgoes a cheeky election|last=O'Connell|first=Hugh|date=12 October 2015|work=[[TheJournal.ie]]|accessdate=12 October 2015}}</ref>
Taoiseach [[Enda Kenny]] suggested at a press conference in September 2013 that the next election would be in March 2016.<ref name="it1529569"/>{{refn|name=AvailableFridays|group=nb|Assuming that Kenny's suggestion proves correct, and that the election takes place on a Friday as has been the norm in recent years to facilitate turnout, and given that [[Good Friday]] [[Template:Dates for Easter|25 March 2016]] is explicitly ruled out as an "excluded day" by Section 2 of the Electoral Act 1992, then the available dates would be Fridays 5, 12 and 19 March 2016.}} This was in the context of speculation that the [[Labour Party (Ireland)|Labour Party]] was unhappy with [[Government of the 31st Dáil|the coalition government]]'s progress and might consider withdrawing and forcing an early election.<ref name="it1529569">{{cite news|url=http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kenny-says-next-election-will-be-held-in-march-2016-1.1529569|title=Kenny says next election will be held in March 2016|last=Beesley|first=Arthur|date=16 September 2013|accessdate=16 September 2013}}</ref> The days around [[Easter Sunday]] on 27 March 2016 will be the culmination of the official commemoration of the centenary of the 1916 [[Easter Rising]],<ref>{{cite web|url=http://ireland.ie/state/|title=State Ceremonial|work=Ireland 2016|publisher=Government of Ireland|accessdate=10 June 2015}}</ref> and there has been speculation that the election would be earlier to avoid clashing with these.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.newstalk.com/Parade-to-mark-99th-anniversary-of-1916-Rising|title=Parade to mark 99th anniversary of 1916 Rising takes place in Dublin|last=Casey|first=Ruairi|date=5 Apr 2015|work=[[Newstalk]]|accessdate=11 June 2015}}</ref><ref name="it2247958">{{cite news|url=http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fine-gael-and-labour-prepare-distinct-election-pitches-1.2247958|title=Fine Gael and Labour prepare distinct election pitches|last=Kelly|first=Fiach|date=13 June 2015|work=[[The Irish Times]]|accessdate=18 June 2015}}</ref> Another factor is that [[Saint Patrick's Day]], 17 March, traditionally sees most ministers make official trips abroad.<ref name="it2247958" /> In June 2015, amid speculation that the election would be in the autumn, Kenny said it would be when the government's programme was completed.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/kenny-says-election-will-follow-end-of-coalition-programme-1.2242090|title=Kenny says election will follow end of Coalition programme|last=Kelly|first=Fiach|date=8 June 2015|work=[[The Irish Times]]|accessdate=10 June 2015}}</ref> In early October 2015, media reported that Fine Gael TDs favoured a November election with Labour preferring spring 2016; for a week Kenny gave vague answers to reporters before stating he had "no reason to change [his] mind" from his previous "spring of 2016" preference.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.thejournal.ie/election-november-february-analysis-2382621-Oct2015/|title=Why nobody is a winner after Enda forgoes a cheeky election|last=O'Connell|first=Hugh|date=12 October 2015|work=[[TheJournal.ie]]|accessdate=12 October 2015}}</ref>

Revision as of 01:28, 3 December 2015

Irish general election, 2016

← 2011 No later than 8 April 2016

158[nb 1] seats in Dáil Éireann
80 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Enda Kenny Joan Burton
Party Fine Gael Labour
Leader since 2 June 2002 4 July 2014
Leader's seat Mayo Dublin West
Last election 76 seats, 36.1% 37 seats, 19.4%
Current seats 67 33

 
Leader Micheál Martin Gerry Adams
Party Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin
Leader since 26 January 2011 13 November 1983 [nb 2]
Leader's seat Cork South–Central Louth
Last election 20 seats, 17.4% 14 seats, 9.9%
Current seats 21 14

Incumbent Taoiseach

Enda Kenny
Fine Gael



The next Irish general election must take place no later than 8 April 2016. The election will be called following the dissolution of the 31st Dáil by the President, at the request of the Taoiseach. The electorate will elect the members of the 32nd Dáil who will assemble shortly afterwards to elect a Taoiseach following agreement on the Government of the 32nd Dáil.

Date

The current statutory framework for the setting of a date for polling day in the general election is set out in the Electoral Act 1992 (as amended).[2] Section 33 of that Act requires that the Dáil be dissolved within five years after its first meeting following the previous election, which was on 9 March 2011.[3] Section 96 requires that the poll is held, not earlier than the seventeenth day or later than the twenty-fifth day, following the day on which the writs for the election are issued; this count does not include "excluded" days, such as Sundays, Bank Holidays, or Good Friday. The writs for the election are issued by the Clerk of the Dáil on the day the Dáil is dissolved. With these restrictions, the Dáil must be dissolved no later than Wednesday 9 March 2016, and the next general election must take place no later than Friday 8 April 2016.[nb 3]

Taoiseach Enda Kenny suggested at a press conference in September 2013 that the next election would be in March 2016.[4][nb 4] This was in the context of speculation that the Labour Party was unhappy with the coalition government's progress and might consider withdrawing and forcing an early election.[4] The days around Easter Sunday on 27 March 2016 will be the culmination of the official commemoration of the centenary of the 1916 Easter Rising,[5] and there has been speculation that the election would be earlier to avoid clashing with these.[6][7] Another factor is that Saint Patrick's Day, 17 March, traditionally sees most ministers make official trips abroad.[7] In June 2015, amid speculation that the election would be in the autumn, Kenny said it would be when the government's programme was completed.[8] In early October 2015, media reported that Fine Gael TDs favoured a November election with Labour preferring spring 2016; for a week Kenny gave vague answers to reporters before stating he had "no reason to change [his] mind" from his previous "spring of 2016" preference.[9]

Electoral system

Ireland uses proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR–STV).[10] The general election will take place throughout the state to elect 158 members of Dáil Éireann, a reduction of 8 from the current 166 members. This follows the passing of the Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Act 2013. The Ceann Comhairle is automatically re-elected unless he opts to retire from the Dáil.[1] The election will take place in 40 parliamentary constituencies.[11] Each multi-member constituency returns no fewer than three, and no more than five Teachtaí Dála (Dáil deputies).[10]

Background

The current government (since 9 March 2011) consists of a Fine GaelLabour Party coalition headed by Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Tánaiste Joan Burton. Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, Anti-Austerity Alliance–People Before Profit, Renua Ireland, Social Democrats, Workers and Unemployed Action, and independent TDs form the opposition in the Dáil. Fianna Fáil is the largest opposition party.

Retiring incumbents

The following members of the 31st Dáil have announced that they will not contest the next general election:

Constituency Departing TD Party
Cork East Sandra McLellan[12] style="background-color: Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color" | Sinn Féin
Donegal South–West Dinny McGinley[13] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael
Dublin Mid–West Robert Dowds[14] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Dublin North–East Seán Kenny[15] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Dublin South Olivia Mitchell[16] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael
Dublin South–Central Michael Conaghan[17] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Dublin South–East Ruairi Quinn[18] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Dublin South–West Pat Rabbitte[19] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Dublin West Joe Higgins[20] style="background-color: Template:Socialist Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Socialist Party
Dún Laoghaire Eamon Gilmore[21] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Galway East Michael P. Kitt[22] style="background-color: Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color" | Fianna Fáil
Galway West Brian Walsh[23] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael
Kildare South Jack Wall[24] style="background-color:Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Limerick Dan Neville[25] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael
Louth Séamus Kirk[26] style="background-color: Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color" | Fianna Fáil
Roscommon–South Leitrim Frank Feighan[27] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael
Sligo–North Leitrim Michael Colreavy[28] style="background-color: Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color" | Sinn Féin
Wexford John Browne[29] style="background-color: Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color" | Fianna Fáil
Wexford Liam Twomey[30] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael

Opinion polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Opinion polls on general election voting intentions since the 2011 general election
Date Source Polling agency class=unsortable style="background:Template:Fine Gael/meta/color; width:60px"|Fine Gael class=unsortable style="background:Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color; width:60px"|Labour Party class=unsortable style="background:Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color; width:60px"|Fianna Fáil class=unsortable style="background:Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color; width:60px"|Sinn Féin class=unsortable style="background:Template:Green Party (Ireland)/meta/color; width:60px"|Green Party class=unsortable style="background:Template:European United Left–Nordic Green Left/meta/color; width:60px"|AAA–PBP[nb 5] Others
26 November 2015 The Irish Times Ipsos MRBI[p 1] 30 7 19 21 2 3 18[nb 6]
21 November 2015 The Sunday Business Post Red C[31] 31 7 19 18 2 4 19[nb 7]
14 November 2015 The Sunday Times Behaviour & Attitudes[32] 26 7 20 21 1 9 16[nb 8]
7 November 2015 Sunday Independent Millward Brown[p 2] 29 7 24 21 1 19[nb 9]
24 October 2015 The Sunday Business Post Red C[p 3][p 4] 30 7 20 16 2 1 24[nb 10]
18 October 2015 The Sunday Times Behaviour & Attitudes[p 5] 24 8 19 19 1 7 21[nb 11]
23 September 2015 The Irish Times Ipsos MRBI[p 6] 28 8 20 19 1 3 21[nb 12]
12 September 2015 The Sunday Business Post Red C[p 7] 28 10 18 16 28
15 August 2015 The Sunday Times Behaviour & Attitudes[p 8] 27 6 20 19 2 5 23[nb 13]
30 July 2015 Sunday Independent Millward Brown[p 9] 24 7 23 21 1 3[nb 14] 23[nb 15]
26 July 2015 The Sunday Business Post Red C[p 10] 25 8 18 18 2 1 28[nb 16]
18 July 2015 The Sunday Times Behaviour & Attitudes[p 11] 24 8 18 17 32
27 June 2015 Sunday Independent Millward Brown[p 12] 29 6 23 21 1 3 17[nb 17]
24 June 2015 The Sunday Business Post Red C[p 12][p 13] 28 7 20 18 2[nb 18] 25[nb 18]
15 June 2015 The Sunday Times Behaviour & Attitudes[p 14][p 15] 24 9 21 19 2[nb 19] 26[nb 19]
30 May 2015 The Sunday Business Post Red C[p 16] 28 10 19 21 3 19[nb 20]
14 May 2015 The Irish Times Ipsos MRBI[p 17] 28 7 20 21 24
26 April 2015 The Sunday Business Post Red C[p 18][p 19] 25 8 19 22 1[nb 21] [nb 22] 24[nb 21]
5 April 2015 Sunday Independent Millward Brown[p 20] 25 8 19 24 3 2 18[nb 23]
28 March 2015 The Sunday Business Post Red C[p 21][p 22] 27 10 18 17 2[nb 24] 26[nb 24]
26 March 2015 The Irish Times Ipsos MRBI[p 23] 24 7 17 24 3 25
11 March 2015 The Sunday Times Behaviour & Attitudes[p 24] 27 9 18 19 3 23
21 February 2015 The Sunday Business Post Red C[p 25] 24 7 18 21 3 27[nb 25]
14 February 2015 Sunday Independent Millward Brown[p 26][p 27] 25 6 19 26 1[nb 26] 23[nb 26]
19 January 2015 The Sunday Business Post Red C[p 28] 24 9 19 20 2 26
13 January 2015 RTÉ (Today with Sean O'Rourke) Red C[p 29] 24 8 18 21 1 28[nb 27]
21 December 2014 The Sunday Times Behaviour & Attitudes[p 30] 24 5 18 22 1 29
18 December 2014 Sunday Independent Millward Brown[p 31] 22 5 18 21 2 32
17 December 2014 The Sunday Business Post Red C[p 32] 21 6 19 24 2 28
4 December 2014 The Irish Times[p 33] Ipsos MRBI 19 6 21 22 3 29
23 November 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 34] Red C 22 8 18 22 3 27
2 November 2014 Sunday Independent[p 35] Millward Brown 22 7 20 26 2 23
26 October 2014 The Sunday Times[p 36] Behaviour & Attitudes 25 9 18 19 3 25
26 October 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 37] Red C 26 8 18 20 2 28
9 October 2014 The Irish Times[p 38] Ipsos MRBI 24 9 20 24 23
21 September 2014 Sunday Independent[p 39] Millward Brown 25 9 21 22 1 23
14 September 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 40] Red C 28 8 18 23 2 23
17 August 2014 The Sunday Times[p 41] Behaviour & Attitudes 24 14 18 19 1 24
3 August 2014 Sunday Independent[p 42] Millward Brown 25 7 20 24 1 23
29 June 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 43] Red C 25 7 18 22 2 26
12 June 2014 Paddy Power[p 44] Red C 22 4 18 22 2 32
7 June 2014 Sunday Independent[p 45] Millward Brown 20 5 20 26 2 2 25
23 May 2014 European election 22.3 5.3 22.3 19.5 4.9 3.3[nb 28] 23.9
23 May 2014 Local elections 24.0 7.2 25.3 15.2 1.6 2.9[nb 29] 25.5
19 May 2014 Sunday Independent[p 46] Millward Brown 20 6 21 23 2 27
16 May 2014 The Irish Sun[p 47] Red C 25 8 20 20 2 25[nb 30]
1 May 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 48] Red C 25 11 21 18 25
19 April 2014 Sunday Independent[p 49][p 50] Millward Brown 29 6 22 20 2 21
19 April 2014 The Sunday Times[p 50][p 51] Behaviour & Attitudes 21 9 20 20 4 26
3 April 2014 The Irish Times[p 52] Ipsos MRBI 25 8 25 21 21
30 March 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 53] Red C 26 9 22 21 22
28 February 2014 Sunday Independent[p 54] Millward Brown 27 8 21 22 2 20
22 February 2014 The Sunday Times[p 55] Behaviour & Attitudes 30 9 19 18 24
22 February 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 55] Red C 29 11 22 16 22
24 January 2014 Sunday Independent[p 56] Millward Brown 30 12 26 16 1 15
22 January 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 56] Red C 27 9 23 16 25
9 January 2014 Paddy Power[p 57] Red C 28 10 22 18 22
15 December 2013 The Sunday Times[p 58] Behaviour & Attitudes 30 11 21 15 3[nb 31] 21[nb 31]
10 December 2013 The Irish Times[p 59] Ipsos MRBI 30 9 22 21 [nb 32] 18
24 November 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 61] Red C 29 12 22 15 2[nb 33] 20[nb 33]
17 November 2013 Sunday Independent[p 62] Millward Brown 27 9 24 21 1 18
7 November 2013 Paddy Power[p 63] Red C 25 9 24 16 2 24
23 October 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 64] Red C 29 9 23 17 23
October 2013 Sunday Independent[p 62] Millward Brown 27 9 27 19 2 17
1 October 2013 The Irish Times[p 65] Ipsos MRBI 26 6 22 23 2 21
28 September 2013 Sunday Independent[p 66] Millward Brown Lansdowne 28 10 27 19 1 15
21 September 2013 The Sunday Times[p 67][p 68] Behaviour & Attitudes 25 11 21 18 3 23
16 September 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 69] Red C 27 10 23 17 4 19
1 September 2013 Sunday Independent[p 70] Millward Brown Lansdowne 27 8 25 21 1 18
18 August 2013 Sunday Independent[p 71] Millward Brown Lansdowne 29 8 28 19 1 15
7 July 2013 Sunday Independent[p 72] Millward Brown Lansdowne 26 8 29 19 19
30 June 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 73] Red C 28 12 22 17 21
14 June 2013 The Irish Times[p 74] Ipsos MRBI 24 9 26 21 2 18
13 June 2013 Paddy Power[p 74] Red C 30 10 24 16 20
2 June 2013 Sunday Independent[p 75] Millward Brown Lansdowne 27 11 27 17 18
26 May 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 76] Red C 26 11 26 16 21
19 May 2013 Sunday Independent[p 77] Millward Brown Lansdowne 23 12 26 19 1 18
28 April 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 28 11 25 16 2 18
14 April 2013 Sunday Independent[p 79] Millward Brown Lansdowne 24 12 27 16 2 18
31 March 2013 The Sunday Times[p 80] Behaviour & Attitudes 27 7 23 15 2 25
24 March 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 28 13 24 14 1 20
17 March 2013 Sunday Independent[p 79] Millward Brown Lansdowne 25 9 29 20 1 16
2 March 2013 Irish Independent[p 79] Millward Brown Lansdowne 24 11 23 21 2 20
24 February 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 28 12 26 16 2 16
18 February 2013 Irish Independent[p 79] Millward Brown Lansdowne 25 13 27 20 1 15
8 February 2013 The Irish Times[p 81] Ipsos MRBI 25 10 26 18 1 20
27 January 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 28 11 21 19 2 19
21 January 2013 The Sunday Times[p 80] Behaviour & Attitudes 26 11 24 19 3 18
10 January 2013 Paddy Power[p 82] Red C 29 13 21 16 3 18
2 December 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 28 14 20 17 3 18
18 November 2012 The Sunday Times[p 80] Behaviour & Attitudes 30 12 22 14 3 19
28 October 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 34 13 19 17 2 15
18 October 2012 The Irish Times[p 83] Ipsos MRBI 31 12 21 20 2 14
23 September 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 32 14 18 18 2 16
16 September 2012 The Sunday Times[p 80] Behaviour & Attitudes 31 14 16 18 2 19
24 June 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 32 15 18 16 2 17
27 May 2012 Sunday Independent[p 84] Millward Brown Lansdowne 36 12 17 20 1 14
26 May 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 30 15 18 19 2 16
25 May 2012 The Irish Times[p 85] Ipsos MRBI 32 10 17 24 2 15
23 May 2012 The Sunday Times[p 80] Behaviour & Attitudes 33 14 16 17 2 18
18 May 2012 Paddy Power[p 86] Red C 32 13 18 20 2 15
18 May 2012 Irish Independent[p 84] Millward Brown Lansdowne 34 15 16 17 1 17
13 May 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 29 13 19 21 2 16
29 April 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 32 14 17 19 2 1 15
17 April 2012 The Sunday Times[p 80] Behaviour & Attitudes 33 14 15 16 5 18
20 April 2012 The Irish Times[p 87] Ipsos MRBI 33 13 14 21 2 17
30 March 2012 Paddy Power[p 86] Red C 35 16 15 14 2 18
25 March 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 34 15 16 18 2 15
4 March 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 30 16 17 18 2 17
20 February 2012 The Sunday Times[p 80] Behaviour & Attitudes 33 13 16 20 2 16
29 January 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 30 14 18 17 3 18
12 January 2012 Paddy Power[p 86] Red C 33 16 17 14 2 18
12 December 2011 The Sunday Times[p 80] Behaviour & Attitudes 29 12 18 19 3 18
4 December 2011 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 32 15 18 15 1 19
25 October 2011 The Irish Times[p 88] Ipsos MRBI 36 19 15 15 1 14
23 October 2011 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 31 17 14 16 2 20
18 October 2011 The Sunday Times[p 80] Behaviour & Attitudes 35 16 14 17 1 16
7 October 2011 The Irish Times[p 89] Ipsos MRBI 35 17 16 18 2 12
2 October 2011 The Sunday Times[p 80] Behaviour & Attitudes 34 16 16 14 3 17
25 September 2011 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 33 16 15 15 2 19
17 September 2011 Sunday Independent[p 90] Millward Brown Lansdowne 40 20 10 11 2 17
4 September 2011 The Sunday Times[p 91] Behaviour & Attitudes 44 12 15 13 2 12
21 July 2011 The Irish Times[p 92] Ipsos MRBI 38 18 18 10 2 14
22 June 2011 Irish Independent[p 84] Millward Brown Lansdowne 42 19 16 11 1 12
29 May 2011 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 41 19 16 11 3 10
10 April 2011 The Sunday Business Post[p 78] Red C 39 18 16 11 2 14
25 February 2011 General election 36.1 19.4 17.4 9.9 1.8 2.2[nb 34] 14.2

Current distribution of seats

Party Leader Seats
style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael Enda Kenny 67
style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party Joan Burton 33
style="background-color: Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color" | Fianna Fáil Micheál Martin 21
style="background-color: Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color" | Sinn Féin Gerry Adams 14
style="background-color: Template:Anti-Austerity Alliance–People Before Profit/meta/color" | Anti-Austerity Alliance–People Before Profit 4
style="background-color: Template:Renua Ireland/meta/color" | Renua Ireland Lucinda Creighton 3
style="background-color: Template:Social Democrats (Ireland)/meta/color" | Social Democrats Stephen Donnelly
Catherine Murphy
Róisín Shortall
3
style="background-color: Template:Workers and Unemployed Action/meta/color" | Workers and Unemployed Action Séamus Healy 1
style="background-color: Template:Independent politician/meta/color" | Independent 19

Footnotes

  1. ^ The Ceann Comhairle (Seán Barrett) will be automatically deemed re-elected unless he retires from the Dáil.[1]
  2. ^ Gerry Adams became President of Sinn Féin on 13 November 1983, but only became parliamentary leader of Sinn Féin in the Dáil once elected to the Dáil for the first time in February 2011. Prior to that its parliamentary leader in the Dáil since 1997 was Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin.
  3. ^ The current constitutional position is less restrictive. Article 16.5 of the Constitution of Ireland requires that the same Dáil shall not continue for more than 7 years, but allows for a shorter period to be fixed by law (which is currently fixed at 5 years). Article 16.3.2 of the Constitution of Ireland requires that a general election for members of Dáil Éireann must take place not later than thirty days after the dissolution (whereas the law currently only allows 25 days). So in theory, or in some emergency, the Oireachtas could amend or replace the Electoral Act 1992 to postpone the election for up to another 2 years and 5 days, or up to 8 April 2018.
  4. ^ Assuming that Kenny's suggestion proves correct, and that the election takes place on a Friday as has been the norm in recent years to facilitate turnout, and given that Good Friday 25 March 2016 is explicitly ruled out as an "excluded day" by Section 2 of the Electoral Act 1992, then the available dates would be Fridays 5, 12 and 19 March 2016.
  5. ^ Single party from September 2015. Includes the Socialist Party
  6. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 2%
  7. ^ "Others" includes Social Democrats 3% and Renua 1%
  8. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 2%, Renua 1% and Social Democrats 1%
  9. ^ "Others" includes Renua 1%
  10. ^ "Others" includes Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%
  11. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 5%, Renua 2%, Social Democrats 1% and Workers' Party 1%
  12. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%
  13. ^ "Others" includes Workers' Party 2%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%
  14. ^ 2% reported as Socialist Party
  15. ^ "Others" includes Renua 1% and Social Democrats 0.5%
  16. ^ "Others" includes Social Democrats 2% and Renua 1%
  17. ^ "Others" includes Renua 1%
  18. ^ a b "Others" includes Renua 1%. The "Others" figure of 27% reported by RTE also included 2% Greens.[p 13])
  19. ^ a b "Others" includes Renua 1%. The "Others" figure of 28% reported by RTE also included 2% Greens.[p 15])
  20. ^ "Others" includes Renua 1%
  21. ^ a b "Others" includes Renua (1%) and the Socialist Party (less than 1%). The "Others" figure of 26% reported by RTE also included 1% Greens.[p 19])
  22. ^ Less than 1%, included in "Others"
  23. ^ "Others" includes Renua 2%
  24. ^ a b "Others" includes Renua 2%. The "Others" figure of 28% reported by Breaking News also included 2% Greens.[p 22])
  25. ^ "Others" includes Renua 1% (The reported "others" figure of 30% also included 3% Greens.[p 25])
  26. ^ a b The "Others" figure of 24% reported by The Irish Times also included 1% Greens.[p 27])
  27. ^ "Others" includes 1% for Renua, which had not been named at that point.
  28. ^ Contested as separate parties
  29. ^ Contested as separate parties
  30. ^ 24% "Independent"; 1% "Other party"
  31. ^ a b Others figure of 24% includes 3% for the Green Party
  32. ^ Less than 1%; included in "Others".[p 60]
  33. ^ a b "Independents and other parties" had 19% of the core vote, adjusted to 22% excluding undecided voters. The Green Party was 2 percentage points of the 19% core vote.[p 61]
  34. ^ Socialist Party 1.2% and People Before Profit 1%

References

Opinion polls
  1. ^ "Fine Gael on course to be biggest party by far after election". Irish Times. 26 November 2015. Retrieved 26 November 2015.
  2. ^ "Opinion poll shows five point increase for Fine Gael". RTÉ. 7 November 2015. Retrieved 7 November 2015.
  3. ^ McConnell, Daniel (24 October 2015). "Budget bounce for Fine Gael as support at highest level in three years". Irish Independent. Retrieved 24 October 2015.
  4. ^ "Support rises for Fine Gael, drops for Labour - poll reveals". RTÉ. 24 October 2015. Retrieved 25 October 2015. Independent and smaller parties are down one point to 27%. ... Within the 27%, the Greens and Renua are on 2%, with the Social Democrats and the Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit grouping on 1%.
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  12. ^ a b "Polls indicate drop in support for Labour and Sinn Féin". RTE. 27 June 2015. Retrieved 2 July 2015.
  13. ^ a b "General Election Opinion Poll - 28th June 2015" (PDF). Red C Research & Marketing Ltd. 28 June 2015. Retrieved 2 July 2015. {{cite web}}: External link in |publisher= (help)The date shown in our table, 24 June 2015, was the last day of polling.
  14. ^ http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0620/709468-opinion-poll/
  15. ^ a b Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes, June 2015 Opinion Poll, 5th - 15th June 2015, prepared for the Sunday Times, prepared by Ian McShane, J.6535 (PDF). Behaviour & Attitudes, Ireland. June 2015. Retrieved 21 June 2015. {{cite book}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help) Note: the 1% figure for Renua is from a table (on the second of two pages 16 in this document:) whose other figures match the Unadjusted table (on the first of two pages 8 in this document:); the figures published by RTE correspond to the Adjusted table (on the first of two pages 10 in this document:), which has no figure for Renua.
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  26. ^ Support for Independents falls sharpley
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Others
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