Talk:Conspiracy theory

Watergate

Watergate is an example of a conspiracy, not an example of a 'conspiracy theory'. The article as it stands elides the two. If there is a better example of a 'conspiracy theory' that later proved to be closer to the truth than mainstream understanding, we should have that here. If there is no better example, we should remove the paragraph. Adhib (talk) 15:57, 28 January 2016 (UTC) Adhib (talk) 15:57, 28 January 2016 (UTC)

This is interesting. Was there a point in time when it was not known for a fact who did it? According to Watergate scandal, there seems to be an intervening time in which it would have been a conspiracy theory that then was proven to be correct. If that is the case, then perhaps it's quite useful in this article, and it illustrates the aspect of cover-up that is mentioned in the lede. SageRad (talk) 16:17, 28 January 2016 (UTC)

A 'conspiracy theory' that later proved to be closer to the truth than mainstream understanding? Well, some conspiracy theory about the JFK assassination was true. Look here: United States House Select Committee on Assassinations: The committee believes, on the basis of the evidence available to it, that Kennedy was probably assassinated as a result of a conspiracy. The committee was unable to identify the other gunmen or the extent of the conspiracy. Fer48 (talk) 17:26, 28 January 2016 (UTC)

We have some pretty good analysis in high quality sources [1], [2] of Watergate as an example of a proven conspiracy, but the sources make it clear that Watergate doesn't necessarily define the epistemic threshold between real and bogus conspiracy theories or lend credibility to conspiracy theories in general. @Sagerad: IIRC, there was never a question of "who did it". The question was more like "how far up the command chain in the Nixon White House did the planning and authorization go?" It was a different world in 1972 with a different news cycle, a limited number of print and TV outlets, and no social media. Although the White House did respond on one occasion by calling Woodward and Bernstein's allegations a 'conspiracy theory', the term got zero traction at the time, with the most commonly used term for the affair being "scandal". - LuckyLouie (talk) 18:23, 28 January 2016 (UTC)

Hmm, very interesting. Thank you, LuckyLouie. SageRad (talk) 13:53, 29 January 2016 (UTC)

Conversely, the suffix -gate is now mostly attached to events that are better characterized as scandals than conspiracy theories.—Odysseus1479 20:36, 30 January 2016 (UTC)

Yes, indeed. That's a neologism from Watergate.

Coincidentally, i just came across mention of Watergate in Keeley (1999) as follows:

Conspiracy theories, as a general theory, are not necessarily wrong. In fact, as the cases of Watergate and the Iran-Contra affair illustrate, small groups of powerful individuals do occasionally seek to affect the course of history, and with no trivial degree of success.

I'm not saying this is the best example of a "warranted conspiracy theory" but it's sourced there. SageRad (talk) 01:17, 1 February 2016 (UTC)

The point here is to distinguish between items of the type 'conspiracy' (which, as above, are real phenomena that actually happen) and items of the type 'conspiracy theory' (a narrative form that may be more or less connected to real phenomena). In the case of Watergate, I see no evidence of the latter item existing. Woodward & Bernstein were applying a systematic investigative approach to a possible scandal, based on direct sources and professional standards of evidence, and said little to anyone until they had well demonstrated proofs to share. That they were testing a hypothesis that a conspiracy had taken place is far from being the same thing as their having held to a 'conspiracy theory' that was then proven. To suggest they're equivalent is to grant credence to 'conspiracy theory' by association with a type of narrative that deservedly carries more authority, because of the professional standards and accountabilities it comes with. Adhib (talk) 11:43, 11 March 2016 (UTC)

In the 5th Century BC, Anaxagoras proposed that the moon's light was merely reflected light from the sun -- but the proof for his theory did not come for thousands of years. In the same way, many people observe and hypothesize the causes and machinations of society without being able to prove them. Hypothesis is a part of the scientific method, and the mechanics of human society and history are no less appropriate to the Method than any other realm. Thus, the distinction above is without merit. There is no shame in proposing a "conspiracy theory" -- proved and unproved conspiracy theories of human society are the path of human knowledge, no less than proved and unproved hypotheses of science. Grammar'sLittleHelper (talk) 18:32, 11 March 2016 (UTC)

In fact, hypothesis only becomes part of the scientific method when it is sufficiently well-crafted as to be testable. That's what separates hypothesis from folklore and fantasy. While it's interesting to me that we keep seeing these partisan attempts to elide two distinct categories of narrative - one deserving of respect, the other not - I am certain such elisions do not belong in any encyclopedia. Adhib (talk) 13:06, 5 April 2016 (UTC)

Confusing terminology: Lone wolf

I don't understand what the bolded sentence below is trying to say. It seems like a non sequitur to the preceding sentence, which makes it even more confusing IMHO. I get the impression that it would make sense to people who are familiar with Barkun's work, which I'm not. My hunch is that it will be equally confusing to anyone who isn't already familiar with his work. I could be wrong, so I'm commenting about it here to see if others cares to weigh in. TBH, it makes such little sense to me that I wouldn't even know how to reword it to make it more clear, so if someone familiar with Barkun cares to make a suggestion, that would also be helpful.

Conspiracy_theory#Fusion_paranoia: Barkun has adopted this term to refer to how the synthesis of paranoid conspiracy theories, which were once limited to American fringe audiences, has given them mass appeal and enabled them to become commonplace in mass media, thereby inaugurating an unrivaled period of people actively preparing for apocalyptic or millenarian scenarios in the United States of the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Barkun notes the occurrence of lone wolf conflicts with law enforcement threatening the established political powers.

Permstrump (talk) 20:15, 4 February 2016 (UTC)

I reworded it. Hope I didn't do violence to the intended meaning. GangofOne (talk) 04:01, 6 February 2016 (UTC)

new content on "longevity"

The following was added in this dif. I am not sure the section header is appropriate. The sourcing with daily mail is not acceptable. Am not sure about WP:WEIGHT. Also, this work was not about how long a "conspiracy theory" could be kept secret, but rather an actual conspiracy.

Longevity

In a 2016 open access article, physicist Dr David Robert Grimes at Oxford University suggested an equation for estimating how long conspiracy theories could realistically remain a secret using the estimated number of people involved in the conspiracy as a variable. The equation expressed the probability of a conspiracy being either deliberately uncovered by a whistle-blower, or inadvertently revealed by a bungler. To estimate the chances of a whistle-blower, Grimes used Edward Snowden's revelations about the NSA Prism project as a base.

Using this model and estimated how long some popular conspiracy theories could have remained a secret:

• The moon landing (estimated 411,000 involved): 3 years, 8 months
• Climate change fraud (estimated 405,000 involved): 3 years, 9 months
• Vaccination conspiracy (estimated 22,000): 3 years, 2 months
• Cancer cure conspiracy (estimated 736,000): 3 years, 3 months

Grimes generated a table estimating a maximum number of conspirators to stay below a threshold. Time frame, Maximum N:

• 5 years, 2531
• 10 years, 1257
• 15 years, 838
• 20 years, 628
• 25 years, 502
• 30 years, 418
• 40 years, 313
• 50 years, 251
• 100 years, 125

References

-- What do folks think about WEIGHT here? better section title? Jytdog (talk) 22:36, 27 February 2016 (UTC) (added dif i forgot Jytdog (talk) 20:56, 28 February 2016 (UTC))

I made the addition but agree with some of what you write. Let's work on it in the article space. I reverted your removal, but incorporated some of your points. The Daily Mail article is based on, and refers to, the artile by Grimes. --Bensin (talk) 23:19, 27 February 2016 (UTC)

I think you'll find Grimes made an elementary mathematical error. Martin Robbins noted it here: [3]. There are times when a primary source is good, I do not think this is one of those times. Guy (Help!) 23:23, 27 February 2016 (UTC)

@JzG: Thanks for link. I've reverted my edit until issue is resolved here. --Bensin (talk) 23:49, 27 February 2016 (UTC)

I think this is a better source than the dailymail, [4] JuliaHunter (talk) 20:44, 28 February 2016 (UTC)

Conspiracy Encyclopedia

I've added a link to Conspiracy Encyclopedia, recently promoted to Good Article quality status rating.

Have a great day,

— Cirt (talk) 11:48, 8 March 2016 (UTC)

$1 bill conspiracy theory

IjonTichyIjonTichy: Per WP:BURDEN you have to provide source(s) for your claim before reverting my removal. You've written in you edit summary as such:it's a 'popular' conspiracy theory" and as we both know, we don't rely on popular things, rather we have to reflect verifiable texts here. So, I suggest you to avoid further reverts unless after you have provided reliable sources for your claim. --Mhhossein (talk) 02:05, 4 April 2016 (UTC)

Jytdog: Thanks for adding the sources. But one of the sources was clearly unreliable and I removed it while the book seems relaible enogh. However, I can't find the claim in the book. Can you help me? Mhhossein (talk) 04:08, 4 April 2016 (UTC)

page number for that ref and 2nd source added. Jytdog (talk) 04:13, 4 April 2016 (UTC)

Thanks, I can verify it now. Mhhossein (talk) 06:30, 4 April 2016 (UTC)

Barkun and the Lead, still

As i see has been discussed before, here, the lead is really biased and speaks through one source, and one "side" of things. That's not good. There seem to be "sides" here unfortunately -- a class of sources whose general nature seems to be to destroy the validity of the concept of conspiracy theory as one element of explaining how the world works. There's a sort of polemic or slantedness in the article and it comes out in the current lead by the overly heavy reliance on Michael Barkun. It's also a very inept definition of the article's subject in the second para of the lead, sourced to Barkun. Seriously, "conspiracy theories rely on the view that the universe is governed by design and embody three principles: nothing happens by accident, nothing is as it seems, and everything is connected" is simply false and absurd. These tropes are not the definition nor requirements for a conspiracy theory. That's a strange thing to have in the lead. It's an incorrect definition. We need to use a basic and accurate definition of the term and leave out editorializing from the lead. SageRad (talk)

And on a similar topic, in the section about history of the term, Blaskiewicz' piece is pretty weak and polemic in regard to the weaponization (or not) of the term "conspiracy theory" and yet it's highly privileged in that section, whereas Lance deHaven-Smith’s book is mentioned but not cited, and is misrepresented as claiming that "the phrase conspiracy theory was invented in the 1960s by the CIA" whereas it does not say the CIA "invented" the term at all. SageRad (talk) 09:50, 19 May 2016 (UTC)

Please propose specific changes.Jytdog (talk) 09:59, 19 May 2016 (UTC)

I would eliminate the second para of the lead or totally rewrite it to present the panoply of views on the subject and not just Barkun's and not to have the implicit conclusion that conspiracy theory is inherently tin foil hat territory, as it currently does. I would actually cite Lance deHaven-Smith’s book and deprecate the prominence of Blaskiewicz' polemic in Skeptic. The article currently contains a strong slant of messaging that it's insane to think that conspiracies are part of how the world works. SageRad (talk) 10:07, 19 May 2016 (UTC)

I would not recommend going down this road - we've covered these issues (many times) before. "Conspiracy theory" refers to a different phenomenon in the world to the term "Conspiracy". We can all agree that conspiracies happen, while also noting the existence of a category of story telling, "conspiracy theory", whose relationship to real life is arbitrary. This article is about the latter. Adhib (talk) 15:23, 19 May 2016 (UTC)

The reason this issue comes up so many times is the lede is improperly and ambivalently written. A single line in the lede could clarify the whole matter: "This article refers not to the theory of conspiracy, legal or otherwise, but to the human error of seeking conspiratorial explanations for human events when there are none -- or when the government insists there are none." That would solve it all. In German during the Third Reich, the idea the Nazis burned the Reichstag would be a mere 'conspiracy theory'. When the Germans were defeated in 1945, that insane conspiracy theory became historical fact. Conspiracy theory is thereby seen to be a relativistic statement of the ideas a person is permitted to hold, given the viewpoint of the author and the milieu of the times. Grammar's Li'l Helper ^Talk 16:16, 19 May 2016 (UTC)

I must disagree. The angle you are proposing has been argued a hundred times here, previously, and has failed the test each time. Your point (and those of your predecessors) is that the term "conspiracy theory" ought to mean something that it does not currently mean. That is a legitimate political position, but not a legitimate editorial one. Adhib (talk) 16:25, 19 May 2016 (UTC)