Swanson's law: Difference between revisions
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[[File:Swansons-law.png|thumb|Swanson's law, the [[learning curve]] of [[photovoltaics]]]] |
[[File:Swansons-law.png|thumb|Swanson's law, the [[learning curve]] of [[photovoltaics]]]] |
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'''Swanson's Law''' is an observation that the price of solar [[photovoltaic module]]s tends to drop 20 percent for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume. At present rates, costs halve about every 10 years.<ref>[http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/03/16/smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells/]</ref> The Law is named after [[Richard Swanson]], the founder of [[SunPower Corporation]] a solar panel manufacturer. Swanson's Law has been compared to [[Moore's Law]]. [[Crystalline silicon]] photovoltaic cell prices have fallen from $76.67 per watt in 1977 to $0.36 per watt in 2014.<ref name="Econ1">{{cite news|url=http://www.economist.com/news/21566414-alternative-energy-will-no-longer-be-alternative-sunny-uplands| title=Sunny Uplands: Alternative energy will no longer be alternative| author=Geoffrey Carr |work=[[The Economist]]| accessdate = 2012-12-28| date=2012-11-21}}</ref><ref name="Econ2">{{cite news| url=http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/12/daily-chart-19| title =Pricing Sunshine| work=[[The Economist]]| author=[[Staff writer]] |accessdate = 2012-12-28| date=2012-12-28}}</ref><ref name="Swanson">{{Cite journal|author=R. M. Swanson|title=A vision for crystalline silicon photovoltaics|journal=Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications|volume=14|pages=443–453|year=2006|url=http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pip.709/abstract|doi=10.1002/pip.709}}</ref> |
'''Swanson's Law''' is an observation that the price of solar [[photovoltaic module]]s tends to drop 20 percent for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume. At present rates, costs halve about every 10 years.<ref>[http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/03/16/smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells/]</ref> The Law is named after [[Richard Swanson]], the founder of [[SunPower Corporation]] a solar panel manufacturer. Swanson's Law has been compared to [[Moore's Law]]. [[Crystalline silicon]] photovoltaic cell prices have fallen from $76.67 per watt in 1977 to $0.36 per watt in 2014.<ref name="Econ1">{{cite news|url=http://www.economist.com/news/21566414-alternative-energy-will-no-longer-be-alternative-sunny-uplands| title=Sunny Uplands: Alternative energy will no longer be alternative| author=Geoffrey Carr |work=[[The Economist]]| accessdate = 2012-12-28| date=2012-11-21}}</ref><ref name="Econ2">{{cite news| url=http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/12/daily-chart-19| title =Pricing Sunshine| work=[[The Economist]]| author=[[Staff writer]] |accessdate = 2012-12-28| date=2012-12-28}}</ref><ref name="Swanson">{{Cite journal|author=R. M. Swanson|title=A vision for crystalline silicon photovoltaics|journal=Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications|volume=14|pages=443–453|year=2006|url=http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pip.709/abstract|doi=10.1002/pip.709}}</ref> Plotting the module price (in $/Wp) versus time shows a dropping by 10% per year.<ref name="ResearchPolicy" /> A 2015 study predicts that solar could contribute 20% of total electricity consumption by 2030.<ref name="ResearchPolicy">{{cite web |url= http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733315001699 |title=How predictable is technological progress? |publisher= |doi=10.1016/j.respol.2015.11.001 |author1=J. Doyne Farmer |author2=François Lafond |date=2 November 2015}} License: cc. Note: Appendix F. A trend extrapolation of solar energy capacity.</ref> |
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The term ''Swanson's Law'' appears to have originated with an article in [[The Economist]] published in late 2012.<ref name="Econ1"/><ref name="Econ2"/> It is a [[misnomer]] in that Swanson was not the first person to make this observation. The method used by Swanson is more commonly referred to as ''[[learning curve]]'' or ''[[experience curve]]'' analysis. It was first developed and applied to the aeronautics industry in the mid-1930s,<ref name="Wright">{{Cite journal|author=T. P. Wright|title=Factors affecting the costs of airplanes|journal=Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences|volume=3|pages=122–128|year=1936|doi=10.2514/8.155}}</ref> and saw its first widespread application to the photovoltaics industry in the mid-1990s.<ref name="ECN">{{Cite web|author1=G. J. Schaeffer |author2=E. Alsema |author3=A. Seebregts |author4=L. Beurskens |author5=H. de Moor |author6=W. van Sark |author7=M. Durstewitz |author8=M. Perrin |author9=P. Boulanger |author10=H. Laukamp |author11=C. Zuccaro |title=Learning from the Sun|work=Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands|accessdate=2013-08-15|url=http://www.ecn.nl/docs/library/report/2004/c04035.pdf|year=2004}}</ref> |
The term ''Swanson's Law'' appears to have originated with an article in [[The Economist]] published in late 2012.<ref name="Econ1"/><ref name="Econ2"/> It is a [[misnomer]] in that Swanson was not the first person to make this observation. The method used by Swanson is more commonly referred to as ''[[learning curve]]'' or ''[[experience curve]]'' analysis. It was first developed and applied to the aeronautics industry in the mid-1930s,<ref name="Wright">{{Cite journal|author=T. P. Wright|title=Factors affecting the costs of airplanes|journal=Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences|volume=3|pages=122–128|year=1936|doi=10.2514/8.155}}</ref> and saw its first widespread application to the photovoltaics industry in the mid-1990s.<ref name="ECN">{{Cite web|author1=G. J. Schaeffer |author2=E. Alsema |author3=A. Seebregts |author4=L. Beurskens |author5=H. de Moor |author6=W. van Sark |author7=M. Durstewitz |author8=M. Perrin |author9=P. Boulanger |author10=H. Laukamp |author11=C. Zuccaro |title=Learning from the Sun|work=Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands|accessdate=2013-08-15|url=http://www.ecn.nl/docs/library/report/2004/c04035.pdf|year=2004}}</ref> |
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Revision as of 15:41, 16 June 2016
Swanson's Law is an observation that the price of solar photovoltaic modules tends to drop 20 percent for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume. At present rates, costs halve about every 10 years.[1] The Law is named after Richard Swanson, the founder of SunPower Corporation a solar panel manufacturer. Swanson's Law has been compared to Moore's Law. Crystalline silicon photovoltaic cell prices have fallen from $76.67 per watt in 1977 to $0.36 per watt in 2014.[2][3][4] Plotting the module price (in $/Wp) versus time shows a dropping by 10% per year.[5] A 2015 study predicts that solar could contribute 20% of total electricity consumption by 2030.[5]
The term Swanson's Law appears to have originated with an article in The Economist published in late 2012.[2][3] It is a misnomer in that Swanson was not the first person to make this observation. The method used by Swanson is more commonly referred to as learning curve or experience curve analysis. It was first developed and applied to the aeronautics industry in the mid-1930s,[6] and saw its first widespread application to the photovoltaics industry in the mid-1990s.[7]
See also
References
- ^ [1]
- ^ a b Geoffrey Carr (2012-11-21). "Sunny Uplands: Alternative energy will no longer be alternative". The Economist. Retrieved 2012-12-28.
- ^ a b Staff writer (2012-12-28). "Pricing Sunshine". The Economist. Retrieved 2012-12-28.
- ^ R. M. Swanson (2006). "A vision for crystalline silicon photovoltaics". Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications. 14: 443–453. doi:10.1002/pip.709.
- ^ a b J. Doyne Farmer; François Lafond (2 November 2015). "How predictable is technological progress?". doi:10.1016/j.respol.2015.11.001. License: cc. Note: Appendix F. A trend extrapolation of solar energy capacity.
- ^ T. P. Wright (1936). "Factors affecting the costs of airplanes". Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences. 3: 122–128. doi:10.2514/8.155.
- ^ G. J. Schaeffer; E. Alsema; A. Seebregts; L. Beurskens; H. de Moor; W. van Sark; M. Durstewitz; M. Perrin; P. Boulanger; H. Laukamp; C. Zuccaro (2004). "Learning from the Sun" (PDF). Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands. Retrieved 2013-08-15.