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| next_year = 2022
| next_year = 2022
| election_date = {{Start date|2018|10|07|df=y}}<br />{{small|(First round)}}
| election_date = {{Start date|2018|10|07|df=y}}<br />{{small|(First round)}}





Revision as of 03:59, 18 October 2016

Brazilian general election, 2018
← 2014 7 October 2018 (2018-10-07)
(First round)		 2022 →
President before election

Michel Temer
PMDB

Elected President

TBD

The next Brazilian general elections are scheduled for October 2018, and will elect the President and Vice-President, the National Congress, state governors and state legislatures. However, due to the ongoing political crisis and the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff,[1][2][3] the elections may be held sooner if the crisis were to result in the nullification of the previous elections.[4]

The previous presidential elections in Brazil were held in October 2014. Supported by the centre-left Workers' Party, Rousseff was elected in the second round of voting with 51.6% of the vote, against 48.4% for her main challenger, Aécio Neves of the centre-right[5] Brazilian Social Democracy Party. Rousseff was first elected in the 2010 elections, succeeding her political mentor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was in office from 2003 until 2011.

Later, on 3 December 2015, impeachment proceedings against Rousseff were officially accepted by the Chamber of Deputies.[6] On 12 May 2016, the Senate of Brazil temporarily suspended President Rousseff's powers and duties for up to six months or until the Senate reached a verdict: to remove her from office if found guilty or to acquit her from the crimes charged.[7] Vice-President Michel Temer, of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, assumed her powers and duties as Acting President of Brazil during the suspension.[8][9] On 31 August 2016, the Senate voted 61–20 in favor of impeachment, finding Rousseff guilty of breaking budgetary laws and removing her from office.[10][11] Acting President Temer succeeded Rousseff as the 37th President of Brazil.

Electoral system

Presidential elections

The President of Brazil is elected using the two-round system. Citizens may field their candidacies for the presidency, and participate in the general elections, which are held on the first Sunday in October (in this instance, 7 October 2018).[12] If the most-voted candidate takes more than 50% of the overall vote, he or she is declared elected. If the 50% threshold is not met by any candidate, a second round of voting is held on the last Sunday in October (in this instance, 28 October 2018). In the second round, only the two most-voted candidates from the first round may participate. The winner of the second round is elected President of Brazil.

Congressional elections

Two-thirds of the 81 members of the Federal Senate will be elected, the other third having been elected in 2014. Two candidates will be elected from each of the States using majority block voting, with voters able to cast two votes each.[13] All 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies will be elected, with candidates elected from 27 multi-member constituencies based on the states, varying in size from eight to 70 seats. The Chamber elections are held using open list proportional representation, with seats allocated using the simple quotient.[14] Voting is mandatory and abstainers can be fined.[13]

Presidential candidates

Potential candidates

Declined

  1. ^ On 20 September 2016, Lula was indicted on charges of corruption and money laundering and, if convicted, may be banned from running for office.[15]
  2. ^ On 2 June 2016, Temer was convicted of breaking campaign finance rules and thus banned from running for office for eight years.[17]

Opinion polls

Since the previous elections, various polling companies have published surveys tracking voting intention for the next presidential elections. The results of these surveys are listed below in reverse chronological order, and include candidates who frequently poll above 3% of the vote, as well as the incumbent President of Brazil, Michel Temer.

First round

Polling Firm/Link Date(s)
administered 		Sample
Size 		PT PDT PSB REDE PMDB PSDB PSC Others Abst./
Undec.
style="background:Template:Workers' Party (Brazil)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Democratic Labour Party (Brazil)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Brazilian Socialist Party/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Brazilian Democratic Movement Party/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Brazilian Social Democracy Party/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Social Christian Party (Brazil)/meta/color;"|
Vox Populi 29 July–1 August 2016 1,500 29%
(Lula) 		6%
(Gomes) 		– 18%
(Silva) 		– 11%
(Alckmin) 		7%
(Bolsonaro) 		– 29%
28%
(Lula) 		6%
(Gomes) 		– 15%
(Silva) 		– 18%
(Neves) 		7%
(Bolsonaro) 		– 27%
29%
(Lula) 		6%
(Gomes) 		– 19%
(Silva) 		– 13%
(Serra) 		7%
(Bolsonaro) 		– 27%
Datafolha 14–15 July 2016 2,792 23%
(Lula) 		6%
(Gomes) 		– 18%
(Silva) 		6%
(Temer) 		8%
(Alckmin) 		8%
(Bolsonaro) 		5% 27%
22%
(Lula) 		5%
(Gomes) 		– 17%
(Silva) 		5%
(Temer) 		14%
(Neves) 		7%
(Bolsonaro) 		4% 25%
23%
(Lula) 		6%
(Gomes) 		– 17%
(Silva) 		6%
(Temer) 		11%
(Serra) 		7%
(Bolsonaro) 		5% 26%
CNT/MDA 2–5 June 2016 2,002 22.3%
(Lula) 		6.3%
(Gomes) 		– 16.6%
(Silva) 		6.2%
(Temer) 		9.6%
(Alckmin) 		6.2%
(Bolsonaro) 		– 32.8%
22%
(Lula) 		6%
(Gomes) 		– 14.8%
(Silva) 		5.4%
(Temer) 		15.9%
(Neves) 		5.8%
(Bolsonaro) 		– 30.1%
Vox Populi 9–12 April 2016 – 29%
(Lula) 		5%
(Gomes) 		– 18%
(Silva) 		– 17%
(Neves) 		7%
(Bolsonaro) 		– 23%
31%
(Lula) 		– – 23%
(Silva) 		– 20%
(Neves) 		– – 26%
Datafolha 7–8 April 2016 2,779 22%
(Lula) 		8%
(Gomes) 		– 23%
(Silva) 		2%
(Temer) 		9%
(Alckmin) 		8%
(Bolsonaro) 		4% 24%
21%
(Lula) 		7%
(Gomes) 		– 19%
(Silva) 		2%
(Temer) 		17%
(Neves) 		8%
(Bolsonaro) 		4% 22%
22%
(Lula) 		7%
(Gomes) 		– 22%
(Silva) 		2%
(Temer) 		11%
(Serra) 		7%
(Bolsonaro) 		4% 24%
Datafolha 17–18 March 2016 – 17%
(Lula) 		7%
(Gomes) 		– 23%
(Silva) 		– 11%
(Alckmin) 		6%
(Bolsonaro) 		– –
17%
(Lula) 		6%
(Gomes) 		– 21%
(Silva) 		– 19%
(Neves) 		6%
(Bolsonaro) 		– –
Datafolha 24–25 February 2016 – 20%
(Lula) 		6%
(Gomes) 		– 23%
(Silva) 		– 12%
(Alckmin) 		7%
(Bolsonaro) 		– –
20%
(Lula) 		5%
(Gomes) 		– 19%
(Silva) 		– 24%
(Neves) 		6%
(Bolsonaro) 		– –
Datafolha 16–17 December 2015 – 22%
(Lula) 		7%
(Gomes) 		– 24%
(Silva) 		– 14%
(Alckmin) 		5%
(Bolsonaro) 		– –
20%
(Lula) 		6%
(Gomes) 		– 19%
(Silva) 		– 27%
(Neves) 		4%
(Bolsonaro) 		– –
2014 election October 5, 2014 115,122,611 41.6%
(Dilma) 		– 21.3%
(Silva) 		– – 33.6%
(Neves) 		0.8%
(Pereira) 		2.7% 19.4%

Second round

Polling Firm/Link Date(s)
administered 		Sample
Size 		PT PDT PSB REDE PMDB PSDB PSC Others Abst./
Undec.
style="background:Template:Workers' Party (Brazil)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Democratic Labour Party (Brazil)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Brazilian Socialist Party/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Brazilian Democratic Movement Party/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Brazilian Social Democracy Party/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Social Christian Party (Brazil)/meta/color;"|
Datafolha 14–15 July 2016 2,792 32%
(Lula) 		– – 44%
(Silva) 		– – – – 24%
36%
(Lula) 		– – – – 38%
(Neves) 		– – 26%
36%
(Lula) 		– – – – 38%
(Alckmin) 		– – 26%
35%
(Lula) 		– – – – 40%
(Serra) 		– – 26%
– – – 46%
(Silva) 		– 28%
(Neves) 		– – 26%
– – – 47%
(Silva) 		– 27%
(Alckmin) 		– – 25%
– – – 46%
(Silva) 		– 30%
(Serra) 		– – 25%
CNT/MDA 2–5 June 2016 2,002 29.9%
(Lula) 		– – – – 34.3%
(Neves) 		– – 35.8%
– – – – 15.8%
(Temer) 		32.3%
(Neves) 		– – 51.9%
– – – 28%
(Silva) 		– 29.7%
(Neves) 		– – 42.3%
31.7%
(Lula) 		– – – 27.3%
(Temer) 		– – – 41%
– – – 33.7%
(Silva) 		20.9%
(Temer) 		– – – 45.4%
28.9%
(Lula) 		– – 35%
(Silva) 		– – – – 36.1%
2014 elections October 26, 2014 112,683,879 51.6%
(Dilma) 		– – – – 48.4%
(Neves) 		– – 21.1%

References

  1. ^ Three Outcomes For Brazil's Political Crisis Forbes, 22 October 2015
  2. ^ Dilma Rousseff impeachment proceedings cheered as Brazil falls into economic tailspin The Washington Post, 18 January 2016
  3. ^ Brazil elite profit from $3bn Petrobras scandal as laid-off workers pay the price The Guardian, 20 March 2015
  4. ^ Rapoza, Kenneth (22 October 2015). "Three Outcomes For Brazil's Political Crisis". Forbes. Retrieved 4 September 2016. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  5. ^ Brazil keen to open trade talks with UK Financial Times, 22 July 2016
  6. ^ Jonathan Watts. "Brazil opens impeachment proceedings against president Dilma Rousseff". The Guardian.
  7. ^ "Dilma Rousseff suspended as Senate votes to impeach". CNN. Retrieved 12 May 2016.
  8. ^ "Brazil's Senate Votes to Impeach President Dilma Rousseff". NBC News. 12 May 2016. Retrieved 12 May 2016.
  9. ^ "Afastada, Dilma mantém salário, Alvorada, avião e assessores". Congresso em Foco (in Portuguese).
  10. ^ CNN, Catherine E. Shoichet and Euan McKirdy. "Brazil's Senate ousts Rousseff in impeachment vote". CNN. Retrieved 31 August 2016. {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)
  11. ^ "Brazil President Dilma Rousseff removed from office by Senate". BBC News. September 1, 2016. Retrieved September 1, 2016.
  12. ^ The Electoral System Library of Congress Country Studies
  13. ^ a b Electoral system IPU
  14. ^ Electoral system IPU
  15. ^ Rapoza, Kenneth (21 September 2016). "Lula's 'Clear Conscience' And Brazil's Inability To Explain Petrobras Scandal". Forbes. Retrieved 28 September 2016. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  16. ^ Watts, Jonathan; Bowater, Donna (1 September 2016). "Brazil's Dilma Rousseff impeached by senate in crushing defeat". The Guardian. Retrieved 2 September 2016. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  17. ^ Greenwald, Glenn (3 June 2016). "Credibility of Brazil's Interim President Collapses as He Receives 8-Year Ban on Running for Office". The Intercept. Retrieved 10 September 2016. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
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