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| style="background:#0087dc; width:60px;" | '''[[Conservative Party (UK)|<span style="color:White;">Con<br /></span>]]'''
| style="background:#0087dc; width:60px;" | '''[[Conservative Party (UK)|<span style="color:White;">Con<br /></span>]]'''
| style="background:#dc241f; width:60px;" | '''[[Labour Party (UK)|<span style="color:White;">Lab<br /></span>]]'''
| style="background:#dc241f; width:60px;" | '''[[Labour Party (UK)|<span style="color:White;">Lab<br /></span>]]'''
| style="background:{{Green Party (UK)/meta/color}}; width:60px;"| '''[[Green Party of England and Wales|<span style="color:White;">Grn</span>]]'''{{refn|group=n|After this poll was conducted, the Greens announced they would not contest the by-election and would support Sarah Olney.}}
| style="background:{{Green Party (UK)/meta/color}}; width:60px;"| '''[[Green Party of England and Wales|<span style="color:White;">Grn</span>]]'''{{refn|group=n|After this poll was conducted, the Greens announced they would not contest the by-election.}}
| style="background:#70147a; width:60px;" | '''[[UK Independence Party|<span style="color:White;">UKIP</span>]]'''{{refn|group=n|After this poll was conducted, UKIP announced they would not contest the by-election and would support Zac Goldsmith.}}
| style="background:#70147a; width:60px;" | '''[[UK Independence Party|<span style="color:White;">UKIP</span>]]'''{{refn|group=n|After this poll was conducted, UKIP announced they would not contest the by-election and would support Zac Goldsmith.}}
! Other
! Other

Revision as of 21:49, 28 November 2016

Richmond Park
by-election, 2016
← 2015 1 December 2016 2020 →
  Zac Goldsmith Christian Wolmar
Candidate Zac Goldsmith Sarah Olney Christian Wolmar
Party Independent Liberal Democrats Labour
Location of Richmond Park within London
MP before election

Zac Goldsmith
Conservative

Elected MP

TBD

The Richmond Park by-election is a UK parliamentary by-election in the constituency of Richmond Park which is scheduled to be held on 1 December 2016.[1][2] It was triggered by the resignation of the Conservative Member of Parliament Zac Goldsmith on 25 October 2016 over the Government's proposal for a third runway at the nearby Heathrow Airport.

Background

When first elected in the 2010 general election and on several subsequent occasions, Goldsmith had promised that he would resign if the government supported a third runway at Heathrow.[3] Following his re-election in the 2015 general election, he stood as the Conservative candidate in the 2016 London Mayoral election, and lost to Sadiq Khan.

When the May ministry announced on 25 October 2016 that the government would support a third runway at Heathrow, Goldsmith resigned his seat.[3]

Candidates

Goldsmith is standing as an independent candidate.[4][5] He has been called an "Independent Conservative"[6] but that ballot paper description has not been permitted since the Registration of Political Parties Act 1998 came into force.[7]

The Conservative Party decided not to put up a candidate against him, possibly because the local party are reported to be supportive of Goldsmith's stance, and putting up a candidate could split the vote and lead to the Lib Dems winning the seat.[8][9][10] While not officially backed by the Conservative Party, he has attracted the campaign support of Conservative Parliamentarians, among them Jacob Rees-Mogg who supports Heathrow expansion and Brexit,[11][12] and Lord True, leader of Richmond Council.[13] The local party's website carries contact details for those wanting to support his campaign.[14]

The Liberal Democrats confirmed Sarah Olney, who was selected to fight the constituency in the event of a snap election, as their candidate for the by-election on 30 October.[15] Olney joined the Liberal Democrats in May 2015, following the general election. She lives locally in North Kingston and works as an accountant at the National Physical Laboratory in Teddington.[16] Her husband, Ben, was previously employed with the delivery of Heathrow Airport's Terminal 5 ten years previously.[17][18]

The day after Goldsmith's resignation, three senior Labour Party MPs suggested that Labour could choose not to stand to maximise the chance of defeating Goldsmith in protest at his support for Brexit and his negative campaign against Sadiq Khan in the mayoral contest.[19] However, other Labour MPs rejected the suggestion[20] and the party continued with the process of choosing a candidate.[21][22] On 5 November they selected Christian Wolmar,[23] a transport expert who had stood to be Labour's candidate for London Mayor, finishing fifth out of six candidates. He has opposed Jeremy Corbyn's leadership of Labour.[24] Wolmar defeated four other candidates for the nomination: Ellie Cumbo, a researcher at the General Council of the Bar of England and Wales; Barnaby Marder, a local activist backed by Momentum; Sachin Patel, a supermarket manager and Union of Shop, Distributive and Allied Workers representative who contested the seat for Labour at the 2015 election; and Jessica Toale, who had been an advisor to Ivan Lewis MP.[25]

The Green Party leaders hinted that the party may not stand a candidate for fear of splitting the vote. However they stressed that it was for the local party to decide.[21][26] The party shares an anti-Brexit and anti-Heathrow expansion stance with the Liberal Democrats. On 2 November, the Richmond Green Party voted against standing a candidate and to back the Liberal Democrat candidate.[27] On 3 November, the Kingston Green Party did the same, and confirmed that there will not be a Green Party candidate in the by-election.[28][29]

The UK Independence Party, the only other party to stand in 2015, have not put forward a candidate and have endorsed Goldsmith.[1][30]

The Women's Equality Party are not standing a candidate and are backing Olney, in opposition to what they described as Goldsmith's record of "racist" campaigning.[31]

Fiona Syms is standing as an independent, but has said she would join the Conservatives if she were elected.[32] The 47-year old activist is critical of Goldsmith, describing his actions as a "tantrum" and saying he is "abandoning" Conservative voters. Syms describes herself as a longstanding Conservative supporter, although she has left the party. Syms was married to Conservative MP Robert Syms for 18 years and claims 25 years of experience in politics as a speechwriter, organiser and constituency worker.[33] She launched her campaign on 5 November.[34][35]

Regular by-election candidate Ankit Love is standing for the One Love Party under his claimed title of Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir.[36]

The official Statement of Persons Nominated confirms the candidates as:

By-election 2016: Richmond Park[37][38]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Independent Zac Goldsmith
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope
One Love Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir
Liberal Democrats Sarah Olney
No label David Powell
CPA Dominic Francis Stockford
Independent Fiona Syms
Labour Christian Wolmar

Campaign

This will be the first UK by-election in which the Conservatives have declined to field a candidate in a seat they held since the Bristol South East by-election in 1963, which was triggered to allow Tony Benn to regain the seat he was disqualified from holding upon his inheritance of the Stansgate viscounty.[39] Conservative MP Alec Shelbrooke criticised the decision by the party not to stand.[40]

The Liberal Democrats also oppose a third runway at Heathrow.[26] They hope to win the seat, which they held from 1997 to 2010. They will be campaigning on an anti-Brexit position, noting Goldsmith's own support for Brexit whereas the area strongly voted for Remain in the 2016 EU membership referendum.[4][41][42] The constituency is estimated to have had a 72% support for Remain.[43] Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign is also expected to become a focal point of campaigning.[44] The Liberal Democrat campaign started quickly, with leader Tim Farron first visiting the constituency on 26 October.[20]

The Daily Mirror said that bookmakers have Goldsmith as clear favourite, although the Liberal Democrats were favourite for a period.[45] Channel 4 reported senior Liberal Democrats think odds predicting the Liberal Democrats would do well have been over-stated.[20][46]

Goldsmith said on 28 October that he would be partly funding his campaign himself. He also did not rule out the possibility of re-joining the Conservative Party after the next general election.[47]

A poll released by BMG Research on 28 October showed Goldsmith on 56% of the vote to Olney's 29%. An as-yet unnamed Labour candidate attracted 11% of the vote, with the Green Party and UKIP tied on 2% each. Asked about the main issues in the election, respondents identified Brexit (25%), Goldsmith's records and views (22%), and Heathrow expansion (21%) as the main issues. Goldsmith supporters were more focused on his record and Heathrow, while Olney supporters focused on Brexit and the Conservative government's record. Labour supporters also identified Brexit as their main consideration. Overall, the poll found 60% opposition to the third runway at Heathrow, 25% support with 14% undecided.[48]

Nick Clegg, the former Liberal Democrat leader and Deputy Prime Minister, launched Olney's campaign on 31 October/1 November, stressing the party's opposition to Heathrow.[33] He also argued that the Brexit decision, that Goldsmith supported, led to the decision to support Heathrow expansion.[49]

Labour candidate Christian Wolmar attracted attention for a proposal to ban toilet paper, moving instead to the "hands-free spray toilet" popular in Asia.[50][51]

An analysis by the King's Fund revealed that the south-west London National Health Service sustainability and transformation plan (STP) is considering cutting acute services at one of five hospitals, including Kingston Hospital, local to the constituency. The Liberal Democrats used this in campaigning to criticise the Conservative government.[52]

Olney was also endorsed by the More United campaign group.[53]

In the final weekend of the campaign, the Liberal Democrats released internal polling putting Goldsmith on 46.7%, the Liberal Democrats on 43.3% and Labour on 9.5%.[54] These figures were disputed: one Conservative MP, Kit Malthouse, a former deputy mayor of London, agreed the election was very close, but the Conservative leader of Richmond Council and Goldsmith ally, Lord True, predicted Goldsmith would do much better.[55]

Prior results

2015 general election

General Election 2015: Richmond Park[56][57][58]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Zac Goldsmith 34,404 58.2 +8.5
Liberal Democrats Robin Meltzer 11,389 19.3 −23.5
Labour Sachin Patel 7,296 12.3 +7.3
Green Andrée Frieze 3,548 6.0 +5.0
UKIP Sam Naz 2,464 4.2 +3.0
Majority 23,015 38.9 +32.0
Turnout 59,101 76.5 −0.4
Conservative hold Swing +16.0

2016 EU referendum result

The results in the EU referendum on 23 June 2016 were reported by local authority, and, as the constituency consists of parts of two local authorities, the London Borough of Richmond upon Thames and the Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames, the exact referendum vote in Richmond Park is not known. However, Chris Hanretty, a Reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia, estimated through a demographic model that Richmond Park had one of the dozen lowest 'Leave' votes in the entire country.[43] His latest estimates suggest that 27.7% of Richmond Park voters voted 'Leave', and thus that 72.3% voted 'Remain'.[59]

Opinion polling

Before close of nominations

The polls below were conducted before nominations for the by-election closed and therefore may include politicians who will not be candidates, or parties that have since declared they will not be standing.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Goldsmith Olney
 		Con
 		Lab
 		style="background:Template:Green Party (UK)/meta/color; width:60px;"| Grn[n 1] UKIP[n 2] Other
BMG Research/The Evening Standard[48] 26–27 October 2016 543 Richmond
Park residents 		56% 29% – 11% 2% 2% 0%
34% 24% 20% 11% 5% 3% 1%

Footnotes

  1. ^ After this poll was conducted, the Greens announced they would not contest the by-election.
  2. ^ After this poll was conducted, UKIP announced they would not contest the by-election and would support Zac Goldsmith.

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "UKIP backing Zac Goldsmith in by-election - BBC News". Bbc.co.uk. 1 January 1970. Retrieved 30 October 2016.
  2. ^ "By-election date set after Zac Goldsmith resigns as Tory MP". Stv.tv. Retrieved 30 October 2016.
  3. ^ a b "Exclusive: Zac Goldsmith To Resign Over Heathrow".
  4. ^ a b Elgot, Jessica; Mason, Rowena; Topham, Gwyn (25 October 2016). "Zac Goldsmith to resign as Tory MP after Heathrow go-ahead" – via The Guardian.
  5. ^ "Conservatives vow not to field candidate in by-election after MP quits". 25 October 2016. Retrieved 26 October 2016.
  6. ^ "If Zac Goldsmith is standing again, what is the point of his resignation? - Coffee House". 25 October 2016. Retrieved 26 October 2016.
  7. ^ Information on Registering a Political Party
  8. ^ Wilkinson, Michael (25 October 2016). "Zac Goldsmith immediately quits as Tory MP for Richmond Park in protest over Heathrow expansion". The Telegraph. Retrieved 28 October 2016.
  9. ^ "Zac Goldsmith resigns as Tory MP over Heathrow runway decision". Retrieved 26 October 2016.
  10. ^ October 25, 2016 17:38 BST (25 October 2016). "Richmond Park by-election: Tories face 'knife-edge' vote if they challenge Zac Goldsmith". Ibtimes.co.uk. Retrieved 30 October 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  11. ^ Adam, Bienkov (10 November 2016). "Zac Goldsmith campaigns alongside pro-Heathrow Tory MP". Retrieved 10 November 2016.
  12. ^ http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/jacob-rees-mogg-disagrees-zac-goldsmith-over-heathrow-heres-why-he-still-backing-him-1591710
  13. ^ http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/richmond-park-byelection-lib-dems-claim-they-are-close-to-pulling-off-upset-against-zac-goldsmith-a3406496.html
  14. ^ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/28/is-progressive-alliance-only-way-stop-hard-right-populism
  15. ^ "Lib Dems' Sarah Olney to fight Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park byelection". 30 October 2016 – via The Guardian.
  16. ^ "Sarah Olney - A fresh new voice for Richmond Park & North Kingston". libdems.org.uk. 26 July 2016. Retrieved 30 October 2016.
  17. ^ http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/local/14918851.REVEALED__Richmond_Park_Lib_Dem_candidate_s_husband_worked_on_Heathrow_Terminal_5/
  18. ^ http://www.surreycomet.co.uk/news/14925951.Richmond_Park_by_election_candidates_Zac_Goldsmith_and_Sarah_Olney_go_head_to_head_in_fierce_debate/
  19. ^ "Lewis, Nandy and Reynolds: Let's make this a referendum on Goldsmith, not Heathrow". LabourList. 26 October 2016. Retrieved 30 October 2016.
  20. ^ a b c Wednesday 26 Oct 2016 Can Zac Goldsmith hold back Lib Dems? (26 October 2016). "Can Zac Goldsmith hold back Lib Dems? | Gary Gibbon on Politics". Blogs.channel4.com. Retrieved 30 October 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  21. ^ a b Jessica Elgot. "Labour frontbenchers urge party not to contest Richmond Park byelection | Politics". The Guardian. Retrieved 30 October 2016.
  22. ^ Paul Waugh Executive Editor, Politics, HuffingtonPost UK (26 October 2016). "Labour WILL Stand A Candidate In Richmond Park By-Election Despite Pleas To Step Aside For Lib Dems". Huffington Post. Retrieved 30 October 2016. {{cite web}}: |author= has generic name (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  23. ^ "Christian Wolmar to stand for Labour in Richmond Park by-election". 5 November 2016. Retrieved 15 November 2016 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  24. ^ PoliticsHome.com (6 November 2016). "EXCL Labour by-election candidate Christian Wolmar called on Jeremy Corbyn to quit". Retrieved 15 November 2016.
  25. ^ "Richmond Park shortlist revealed - LabourList". 2 November 2016. Retrieved 15 November 2016.
  26. ^ a b October 27, 2016 14:23 BST. "Richmond Park by-election: Greens consider not standing in bid to defeat Zac Goldsmith". Ibtimes.co.uk. Retrieved 30 October 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  27. ^ Elgot, Jessica (2 November 2016). "NEW: Greens won't stand a candidate in Richmond Park - will back Lib Dems' @sarahjolney1". Twitter. Retrieved 2 November 2016.
  28. ^ "Greens back Lib Dem candidate against Zac Goldsmith in byelection". The Guardian. 4 November 2016. Retrieved 4 November 2016.
  29. ^ "Green Party stands down in Richmond Park by-election to avoid splitting anti-Tory vote". 4 November 2016. Retrieved 15 November 2016.
  30. ^ "UKIP backs Goldsmith on his Heathrow stance". UKIP. Retrieved 30 October 2016.
  31. ^ "WE join Richmond alliance against racism". Retrieved 15 November 2016.
  32. ^ "Labour picks transport expert Christian Wolmar to fight Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park by-election". Retrieved 15 November 2016.
  33. ^ a b "Zac Goldsmith accused of Heathrow 'tantrum' by Tory MP's ex-wife". 31 October 2016. Retrieved 15 November 2016.
  34. ^ "Labour picks transport expert Christian Wolmar to fight Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park by-election". The Telegraph. 5 November 2016. Retrieved 6 November 2016.
  35. ^ "@FionaSyms2016". 5 November 2016. Retrieved 6 November 2016 – via Twitter.
  36. ^ "A Dogra bids to make it in UK politics – again". 1 November 2016. Retrieved 15 November 2016.
  37. ^ Donovan, Tim. "Tactics reduce candidates for Richmond Park by-election". BBC News. Retrieved 8 November 2016.
  38. ^ http://www.richmond.gov.uk/notice_of_poll_spn_sops_richmond_park_by_election_2016.pdf
  39. ^ "Heathrow And The Turbulent Politics For The Tory Party". 25 October 2016. Retrieved 26 October 2016.
  40. ^ "Sarah Olney to fight Richmond by-election for Lib Dems". 30 October 2016. Retrieved 15 November 2016 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  41. ^ Read. "The LibDems will make the Richmond Park by-election into a referendum on Brexit | Coffee House". Blogs.spectator.co.uk. Retrieved 30 October 2016.
  42. ^ http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/richmond-park-residents-more-upset-about-brexit-heathrow-says-lib-dem-hopeful-1591605
  43. ^ a b Hanretty, Chris (29 June 2016). "The EU referendum: how did Westminster constituencies vote?". Retrieved 26 October 2016.
  44. ^ "Who'll win the Richmond Park by-election?". Retrieved 26 October 2016.
  45. ^ Peston on Sunday, 30 October 2016, ITV
  46. ^ Allen, Gavin (25 October 2016). "Everything you need to know about Zac Goldsmith's resignation and what it means for the country - Mirror Online". Mirror.co.uk. Retrieved 30 October 2016.
  47. ^ PIPPA CRERAR, NIcholas Cecil. "Zac Goldsmith: I've not got a racist bone in my body, Sadiq Khan's team 'outplayed' us | London Evening Standard". Standard.co.uk. Retrieved 30 October 2016.
  48. ^ a b "Evening Standard/BMG Constituency Poll: Richmond Park by-election voting intention and key issue results". bmgresearch.co.uk. 28 October 2016. Retrieved 30 October 2016.
  49. ^ "Nick Clegg: Zac flouncing out over Heathrow is just an empty gesture". 31 October 2016. Retrieved 15 November 2016.
  50. ^ PoliticsHome.com (6 November 2016). "Will next Labour manifesto include pledge to ban toilet paper? It could if Christian Wolmar becomes an MP". Retrieved 15 November 2016.
  51. ^ "Labour's candidate in Richmond by-election wants to ban loo roll and doesn't use it at home". Retrieved 15 November 2016.
  52. ^ "London hospital closure fears seized on in by-election campaign". 14 November 2016. Retrieved 15 November 2016.
  53. ^ http://www.moreunited.uk/richmond-park
  54. ^ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/26/lib-dems-richmond-byelection-sarah-olney-eu-caroline-lucas-green-party-article-50
  55. ^ http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/richmond-park-byelection-lib-dems-claim-they-are-close-to-pulling-off-upset-against-zac-goldsmith-a3406496.html
  56. ^ "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  57. ^ "Election results for Richmond Park".
  58. ^ "Richmond Park parliamentary constituency – Election 2015". BBC News. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  59. ^ "Revised estimates of leave vote in Westminster constituencies". Retrieved 26 October 2016.
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