Climate change in California

Animated map of the progression of the drought in California in 2014, during which the drought covered 100% of California. As of December 2014, 75% of California was under Extreme (Red) or Exceptional (Maroon) Drought. The California drought continued after 2014.

Climate change in California had already tremendous direct effects of global warming like drought and wildfire making the situation critical. A 2011 study projected that the frequency and magnitude of both maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly as a result of global warming.

Extreme weather incidents

A 2011 study projected that the frequency and magnitude of both maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly as a result of global warming.

Wildfires

Main articles: 2017 California wildfires, 2018 California wildfires, and List of California wildfires

In 2017, a study projected that the single largest threat to Los Angeles County hospitals related to climate change is the direct impacts resulting from the expected increase in wildfires. In Los Angeles County, 34% of hospitals are within one mile of very high fire hazard severity zones, with 24% of these hospitals having a disproportionate share of patient load and 12% impacted by health care shortages. In addition, one of the hospitals studied was in danger of sea-coastal flooding due to the effects of climate change. This issue will become a greater obstacle as sea levels rise due to increase annual temperatures.

As a consequence of further global warming, it is projected that there will be an increase in risk due to climate-driven wildfires in the coming decades. Because of warming, frequent droughts, and the legacy of past land management and expansion of residential areas, both people and the ecology with which we coexist are more vulnerable to wildfires. Wildfire activity is closely tied to temperature and drought over time. Globally, the length of the fire season increased by nearly 19% from 1979 to 2013, with significantly longer seasons in the western states. Since 1985, more than 50% of the wildfire area burned in the western United States can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, due to human fire suppression methods, there is a build of fuels in some ecosystems, making them more vulnerable to wildfires. There is greater risk of fires occurring in denser, dryer forests where histrionically these fires occurred in low-density areas. Lastly, with increases in human population, we have expanded out communities into areas that are at higher risk to wildfire threat, making these same populations more vulnerable to structural damage and death due to wildfires. Since 1990, the average annual number of homes lost to wildfires has increased by 300%. Almost 900,000 of western US residences are currently in high risk wildfire areas with nearly 35% of wildfires in California starting within this high risk areas. Thus, policies must be generated that allow for adaptation to increased wildfire risk and reduce further vulnerability in these high risk areas.

California wildfires will only get worse in the future because of climate change.

Drought

Main article: 2011–17 California drought

According to the NOAA Drought Task Force report of 2014, the drought is not part of a long-term change in precipitation and was a symptom of the natural variability, although the record-high temperature that accompanied the recent drought may have been amplified due to human-induced global warming. This was confirmed by a 2015 scientific study which estimated that global warming "accounted for 8–27% of the observed drought anomaly in 2012–2014... Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts."

In February 2014, the Californian drought reached for the first time in the history of the State Water Project to shortages of water supplies. The California Department of Water Resources planned to reduce water allocations to farmland by 50%. California's 38 million residents experienced 13 consecutive months of drought. This is particularly an issue for the state's 44.7 billion dollar agricultural industry, which produces nearly half of all U.S.-grown fruits, nuts, and vegetables. According to NASA, tests published in January 2014 have shown that the twelve months prior to January 2014 were the driest on record, since record-keeping began in 1885. Lack of water due to low snowpack prompted Californian governor Jerry Brown to order a series of stringent mandatory water restrictions on April 1, 2015.

Percent Area in U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Consequences

Health consequences

Expected increases in extreme weather could lead to increased risk of illnesses and death.

Heat waves

From May to September 1999 – 2003, a study was conducted in nine Californian counties that found that for every 10 °F (5.6 °C) increase in temperature, there is a 2.6 percent increase in cardiovascular deaths.

2006 heat wave

A study of the 2006 Californian heat wave showed an increase of 16,166 emergency room visits, and 1,182 hospitalizations. There was also a dramatic increase in heat related illnesses; a six-fold increase in heat-related emergency room visits, and 10-fold increase in hospitalizations.

A study of seven counties impacted by the 2006 heat wave found a 9 percent increase in daily mortality per 10 degrees Fahrenheit change din apparent temperature for all counties combined. This estimate is 3 times greater than the effect estimated for the rest of the warm season. The estimates indicate that actual mortality during the 2006 heat wave was two or three times greater than the initial coroner estimate of 147 deaths.

Air pollution

Research suggests that the majority of air pollution related health effects are caused by ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM). It should be noted that many other pollutants that are associated with climate change, such as nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide, also have health consequences.

Five of the ten most ozone-polluted metropolitan areas in the United States (Los Angeles, Bakersfield, Visalia, Fresno, and Sacramento) are in California. Californians suffer from a large variety of health consequences due to air pollution – including 18,000 premature deaths each year and tens of thousands of other illnesses.

Climate change may lead to exacerbated air pollution problems. Higher temperatures catalyze chemical interactions between nitrogen oxide, volatile organic gases and sunlight that lead to increases in ambient ozone concentrations in urban areas. A study found that for each 1 degree Celsius (1 °C) rise in temperature in the United States, there are an estimated 20–30 excess cancer cases, as well as approximately 1000 (CI: 350–1800) excess air-pollution-associated deaths. About 40 percent of the additional deaths may be due to ozone and the rest to particulate matter annually. Three hundred of these annual deaths are thought to occur in California.

Economic consequences

Basic necessities

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that under a business-as-usual scenario, between the years 2025 and 2100, the cost of providing water to the western states in the United States will increase from $200 billion to $950 billion per year, an estimated 0.93–1 percent of the United States' gross domestic product (GDP). Four climate change impacts—hurricane damage, energy costs, real estate losses, and water costs—alone are projected to cost 1.8 percent of the GDP of the United States, or, just under $1.9 trillion in 2008 U.S. dollars by the year 2100.

Job opportunities

A study conducted in 2009 showed that increases in frequency and intensity of extreme weather due to climate change will lead to a decreased productivity of agriculture, revenue losses, and the potential for lay offs. Changing weather and precipitation patterns could require expensive adaptation measures, such as relocating crop cultivation, changing the composition or type of crops, and increasing inputs such as pesticides to adapt to changes in ecological composition, that lead to economic denigration and job loss. Climate change has adverse effects on agricultural productivity in California that cause laborers to be increasingly affected by job loss. For example, the two highest-value agricultural products in California’s $30 billion agriculture sector are dairy products (milk and cream, valued at $3.8 billion annually) and grapes ($3.2 billion annually). Climate change is expected to decrease dairy production by between 7–22 percent by the end of the century. It is also expected to adversely affect the ripening of wine grapes, substantially reducing their market value.

Climates changes mitigation policies

Main article: Climate change policy of California

California has taken legislative steps in the hope of reducing the risk of possible effects of climate change by incentives and plans for clean cars, renewable energy, and pollution controls on industry.

See also

• 2012–15 North American drought
• 2014 California wildfires
• 2013 California wildfires
• California Air Resources Board
• California Environmental Protection Agency
• CoolCalifornia.org
• Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006
• Pollution in California
• Climate change policy of California
• Effects of global warming

Further reading

• B. Lynn Ingram; Frances Malamud-Roam (July 2, 2013). The West without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climatic Clues Tell Us about Tomorrow. University of California Press. ISBN 978-0520954809.
• Stine, Scott (June 1990). "Late holocene fluctuations of Mono Lake, eastern California". Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. 78 (3–4). Elsevier: 333–81. Bibcode:1990PPP....78..333S. doi:10.1016/0031-0182(90)90221-R.

External links

• Scoping Plan
• California Center for Sustainable Energy
• California Releases Plans to Cut its Greenhouse Emissions (EERE).
• California Department of Water Resources

Legislation

• CARB about 1493.
• CARB regulations (PDF).
• AB 32 Solutions For Global Warming.
• AB 1007.
• AB 1493 (Pavley) Briefing Package (PDF) Greenhouse gas emissions.
• AB 1493 Informational Hearing (Microsoft Word file)
• AB 1493 from Governor's website, California Senate and AB 1493 from Calcleancars.org (PDF)