2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election: Difference between revisions
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|title=Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2018 |
|title=Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2018 |
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{{Election box candidate with party link |
{{Election box winning candidate with party link |
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|party = Democratic Party (United States) |
|party = Democratic Party (United States) |
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|candidate = [[David Ige]] (incumbent) |
|candidate = [[David Ige]] (incumbent) |
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|votes = |
|votes = 244,814 |
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|percentage = |
|percentage = 62.7 |
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|change = +13.7 |
|change = +13.7 |
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Revision as of 00:28, 12 November 2018
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| Elections in Hawaii |
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The 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Hawaii and Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii.
After prevailing in an intensely competitive primary election on August 11, 2018, incumbent Democratic Governor David Ige ran successfully for re-election to a second term in office, considerably improving on his margin of victory from 2014, in which he only won a plurality.
Democratic primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Ernest Caravalho, Democratic Party of Hawaii, Chair, House District 29[1]
- Colleen Hanabusa, U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[2][3][4]
- David Ige, incumbent Governor[2][5]
- Wendell Kaehuaea, security guard and perennial candidate[6]
- Van Tanabe
Withdrew
- Clayton Hee, former State Senator and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2014[7][8]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige |
Colleen Hanabusa |
Clayton Hee |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 871 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 34% | – | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 494 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 40% | – | 16% |
| QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) | June 21 – July 6, 2018 | 518 | ± 4.4% | 31% | 57% | – | 11% |
| QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) | April 21 – May 7, 2018 | 888 | ± 3.4% | 23% | 52% | 6% | 19% |
| Merriman River Group | May 3–5, 2018 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 31% | 37% | 11% | 16% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 498 | ± 4.5% | 27% | 47% | 11% | 15% |
Results
Ige—50–60%
Ige—40–50%
Hanabusa—40–50%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | David Ige (incumbent) | 124,528 | 51.3 | |
| Democratic | Colleen Hanabusa | 107,583 | 44.3 | |
| Democratic | Ernest Caravahlo | 5,659 | 2.3 | |
| Democratic | Wendell Ka'ehu'ae'a | 2,293 | 0.9 | |
| Democratic | Van Tanabe | 1,575 | 0.6 | |
| n/a | Blank votes | 5,112 | 2.1 | |
| n/a | Over votes | 302 | 0.1 | |
| Total votes | 247,052 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Bernard Carvalho, Mayor of Kauai County[10]
- Will Espero, State Senate Vice President and candidate for HI-01 in 2014[11]
- Josh Green, State Senator[3][12][11]
- Kim Coco Iwamoto, former state Board of Education member[13]
- Jill Tokuda, State Senator[2]
Withdrew
- Alan Arakawa, Mayor of Maui County[14] (running for Maui County Council)[15]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bernard Carvalho |
Will Espero |
Josh Green |
Kim Coco Iwamoto |
Jill Tokuda |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 871 | ± 3.3% | 13% | 5% | 31% | 10% | 17% | 26% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 494 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 6% | 34% | 10% | 14% | 22% |
| Merriman River Group | May 3–5, 2018 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 19% | 8% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 32% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 498 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 9% | 19% | 5% | 12% | 41% |
Results
Green—50–60%
Green—30–40%
Tokuda—30–40%
Carvalho—40–50%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Josh Green | 74,819 | 30.2 | |
| Democratic | Jill Tokuda | 68,107 | 27.5 | |
| Democratic | Bernard P. Carvalho | 45,802 | 18.5 | |
| Democratic | Kim Coco Iwamoto | 34,218 | 13.8 | |
| Democratic | Will Espero | 15,459 | 6.2 | |
| n/a | Blank votes | 9,201 | 3.7 | |
| n/a | Over votes | 220 | 0.1 | |
| Total votes | 247,826 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- John Carroll, former State Representative, former State Senator and perennial candidate[6][16]
- Ray L'Heureux, president and chairman of the Education Institute of Hawaii, Former Assistant Superintendent, and retired U.S. Marine colonel[17]
- Andria Tupola, Minority Leader of the Hawaii House of Representatives[18][16]
Withdrew
- Bob McDermott, State Representative and nominee for HI-02 in 2002[19][20]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Carroll |
Raymond L'Heureux |
Andria Tupola |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 219 | ± 6.6% | 22% | 4% | 39% | 22% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 143 | ± 8.4% | 28% | 8% | 41% | 23% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 134 | ± 8.6% | 40% | – | 28% | 32% |
Results
Tupola—50–60%
Tupola—40–50%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Andria Tupola | 17,282 | 53.0 | |
| Republican | John Carroll | 10,969 | 33.7 | |
| Republican | Ray L'Heureux | 2,883 | 8.8 | |
| n/a | Blank votes | 1,425 | 4.4 | |
| n/a | Over votes | 28 | 0.1 | |
| Total votes | 32,587 | 100 | ||
Lieutenant Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Marissa Kerns
- Steve Lipscomb
- Jeremy Low
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Marissa Kerns |
Jeremy Low |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 219 | ± 6.6% | 26% | 20% | 54% |
Results
Kerns—30–40%
Lipscomb—30–40%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marissa Dipasupil Kerns | 9,749 | 29.9 | |
| Republican | Steve Lipscomb | 9,538 | 29.3 | |
| Republican | Jeremy Low | 8,224 | 25.2 | |
| n/a | Blank votes | 5,057 | 15.5 | |
| n/a | Over votes | 19 | 0.1 | |
| Total votes | 32,587 | 100.0 | ||
Green primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Jim Brewer
Results
Brewer—100%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Jim Brewer | 454 | 73.3 | |
| n/a | Blank votes | 164 | 26.5 | |
| n/a | Over votes | 1 | 0.2 | |
| Total votes | 619 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Renee Ing
Results
Ing—100%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Renee Ing | 444 | 71.7 | |
| n/a | Blank votes | 175 | 28.3 | |
| n/a | Over votes | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 619 | 100.0 | ||
Nonpartisan primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Selina Blackwell
- Link El
- Terrence Teruya
Results
Teruya—50–60%
Blackwell—40–50%
Blackwell—50–60%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | Blank votes | 918 | 44.7 | |
| Nonpartisan (United States) | Terrence Teruya | 542 | 26.4 | |
| Nonpartisan (United States) | Selina Blackwell | 494 | 24.1 | |
| Nonpartisan (United States) | Link El | 98 | 4.8 | |
| n/a | Over votes | 1 | 0.2 | |
| Total votes | 2,053 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Ernest Magaoay
- Paul Robotti
Results
Robotti—50–60%
Magaoay—50–60%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| n/a | Blank votes | 995 | 48.5 | |
| Nonpartisan (United States) | Paul Robotti | 535 | 26.1 | |
| Nonpartisan (United States) | Ernest Magaoay | 521 | 25.4 | |
| n/a | Over votes | 2 | 0.1 | |
| Total votes | 2,053 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[22] | Solid D | October 16, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[23] | Safe D | October 16, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[24] | Solid D | October 22, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[25] | Solid D | October 12, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] | Safe D | October 19, 2018 |
| Real Clear Politics[27] | Safe D | October 21, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[28] | Safe D | October 22, 2018 |
| Fox News[29][a] | Likely D | October 19, 2018 |
| Politico[30] | Solid D | October 19, 2018 |
| Governing[31] | Safe D | October 22, 2018 |
- Notes
- ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige (D) |
Andria Tupola (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group | October 8–12, 2018 | 961 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 31% | 11% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 34% | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | David Ige (incumbent) | 244,814 | 62.7 | +13.7 | |
| Republican | Andria Tupola | 131,604 | 33.7 | −3.0 | |
| Green | Jim Brewer | 10,112 | 2.6 | +2.6 | |
| Nonpartisan (United States) | Terrence Teruya | 4,062 | 1.0 | +1.0 | |
| Majority | 113,210 | ||||
| Total votes | 390,592 | 100.0 | |||
References
- ^ "Ernest Caravalho". Ballotpedia. Retrieved July 6, 2018.
- ^ a b c Singer, Jeff (June 6, 2017). "Why several Hawaii Democrats are mulling primary bids against Gov. David Ige". Daily Kos. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
{{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=(help) - ^ a b Hooser, Gary (August 9, 2017). "Brace yourselves, primaries are coming". The Garden Island. Retrieved August 22, 2017.
- ^ "U.S. Rep. Hanabusa announces plans to run for governor". Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
- ^ Callis, Tom (January 3, 2016). "Green saving up for run at higher office". Hawaii Tribune-Herald. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
{{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=(help) - ^ a b Cook Lauer, Nancy (January 6, 2018). "Familiar candidate aims for governor". West Hawaii Today. Archived from the original on January 6, 2018. Retrieved January 7, 2018.
{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|dead-url=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ Blair, Chad (February 27, 2018). "Former Sen. Clayton Hee Is Running For Governor". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
- ^ Blair, Chad (June 4, 2018). "Clayton Hee Withdraws From Hawaii Governor's Race". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved June 8, 2018.
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Primary Election 2018 -State of Hawaii – Statewide" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. Retrieved August 12, 2018.
- ^ "Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho Jr. to run for lieutenant governor". KHON 2. October 26, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
- ^ a b "Sens. Green, Espero announce runs for lieutenant governor in 2018". Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
- ^ Cook Lauer, Nancy (June 13, 2017). "3 show interest in Green's seat as senator eyes lieutenant gov bid". Hawaii Tribune-Herald. Retrieved August 22, 2017.
{{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=(help) - ^ "Kim Coco Iwamoto announces bid for Lieutenant Governor". Island News KITV 4. November 5, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
- ^ "Maui Mayor Arakawa says he plans to run for lieutenant governor". Hawaii News Now. May 26, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
- ^ Pignataro, Anthony (April 3, 2018). "Maui Mayor Alan Arakawa to hold $1,000/person fundraiser at swanky Waikiki restaurant". MauiTime. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
- ^ a b Daverta, Jobeth (Jan 21, 2018). "Hawaii minority leader Rep. Andria Tupola enters gubernatorial race". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved Jan 26, 2018.
- ^ Dible, Max (April 14, 2018). "Republican candidates for state office stump in Kona". West Hawaii Today.
- ^ "The Hawaii Republican Party has a new chair". Retrieved 2018-04-05.
- ^ Nagaoka, Ashley (May 12, 2017). "McDermott touts leadership, officialy [sic] enters 2018 race for governor". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved May 13, 2017.
- ^ Dayton, Kevin (August 29, 2017). "Rep. McDermott withdraws from governor's race". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Retrieved August 30, 2017.
- ^ Beers, Axel (August 2, 2018). "MauiTime endorses Andria Tupola for governor (Republican) in 2018 Primary Election". Maui Time.
- ^ "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
- ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
- ^ "2018 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. August 9, 2018.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
- ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
- ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved 2018-07-18.
External links
- Official campaign websites
- Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites