2020 United States Senate elections: Difference between revisions
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! [[Cook Political Report|Cook]]<br/>{{Small|Apr 19,<br/>2019}}<ref name=":1">{{cite web | title=2020 Senate Race ratings | url=https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/ | publisher=[[Cook Political Report]] | date=January 4, 2018}}</ref> |
! [[Cook Political Report|Cook]]<br/>{{Small|Apr 19,<br/>2019}}<ref name=":1">{{cite web | title=2020 Senate Race ratings | url=https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/ | publisher=[[Cook Political Report]] | date=January 4, 2018}}</ref> |
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! [[Inside Elections|IE]]<br/>{{Small|May |
! [[Inside Elections|IE]]<br/>{{Small|May 6, <br/>2019}}<ref>{{cite web | title=Senate Ratings 2020 | url=http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2020-senate-ratings-may-6-2019 | publisher=[[Inside Elections]] | date=January 4, 2019}}</ref> |
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! [[Sabato's Crystal Ball|Sabato]]<br/>{{Small|Mar 25,<br/>2019}}<ref>{{cite web | title=2020 Senate | url=http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-senate/ | publisher=[[Sabato's Crystal Ball]] | date=December 13, 2018}}</ref> |
! [[Sabato's Crystal Ball|Sabato]]<br/>{{Small|Mar 25,<br/>2019}}<ref>{{cite web | title=2020 Senate | url=http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-senate/ | publisher=[[Sabato's Crystal Ball]] | date=December 13, 2018}}</ref> |
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Revision as of 19:36, 8 May 2019
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Class 2 (33 of the 100) seats in the United States Senate (and 1 special election) 51 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections to the United States Senate will be held on November 3, 2020, with the 33 Class 2 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections. The winners will be elected to six-year terms extending from January 3, 2021, until January 3, 2027. Additionally, there will be a special election in Arizona to fill the vacancy created by the death of John McCain in 2018.
In 2014, the last regularly scheduled elections for Class 2 Senate seats, the Republicans won a net gain of nine seats from the Democrats and gained a majority in the Senate. Republicans defended that majority in 2016 and 2018, and held 53 Senate seats following the 2018 elections. Democrats held 45 seats after the 2018 elections, while independents caucusing with the Democratic Party held two seats.
Including the special election in Arizona, Republicans will be defending 22 seats in 2020, while the Democratic Party will be defending 12 seats. Because the Vice President of the United States has the power to break ties in the Senate, a Senate majority requires either 51 Senate seats without control of the vice presidency or 50 seats with control of the vice presidency. Thus, assuming that the two independents continue to caucus with the Senate Democratic Caucus, the Democrats will have to pick up at least three Senate seats to win a majority. If a Republican is elected as vice president in the 2020 election, then the Democratic Party will have to pick up at least four Senate seats to win a majority.
Partisan composition
As of November 2018 (and including the 2020 special election in Arizona), Republicans are expected to defend 22 seats in 2020, while the Democratic Party is expected to defend only 12 seats. These figures could change if vacancies or party switches occur. Additional special elections may also be held in 2020 if vacancies should arise in Class 1 or Class 3 Senate seats.
Results summary
Parties | style="background-color:Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color" | | style="background-color:Template:Independent (United States)/meta/color" | | style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (United States)/meta/color" | | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Independent | Republican | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Last election (2018) | 45 | 2 | 53 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Before this election | 45 | 2 | 53 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Not up | 33 | 2 | 31 | 66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Class 1 (2018→2024) | 21 | 2 | 10 | 33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Class 3 (2016→2022) | 12 | 0 | 21 | 33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Up | 12 | 0 | 22 | 34 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Class 2 (2014→2020) | 12 | 0 | 21 | 33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special: Class 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
General elections | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Incumbent retiring | 1 | — | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Incumbent running | 9 | — | 12 | 21 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Intent unknown | 2 | — | 7 | 9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Change in composition
Each block represents one of the one hundred seats in the U.S. Senate. "D#" is a Democratic senator, "I#" is an Independent senator, and "R#" is a Republican senator. They are arranged so that the parties are separated and a majority is clear by crossing the middle.
Before the elections
Each block indicates an incumbent senator's actions going into the election.
D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
D20 | D19 | D18 | D17 | D16 | D15 | D14 | D13 | D12 | D11 |
D21 | D22 | D23 | D24 | D25 | D26 | D27 | D28 | D29 | D30 |
D40 Ore. Running |
D39 N.H. Running |
D38 Minn. Running |
D37 Mass. Running |
D36 Ill. Running |
D35 Del. Running |
D34 Ala. Running |
D33 | D32 | D31 |
D41 Mich. Running |
D42 R.I. Running |
D43 N.J. Unknown |
D44 Va. Unknown |
D45 N.M. Retiring |
I1 | I2 | R53 Tenn. Retiring |
R52 Kan. Retiring |
R51 Wyo. Retiring |
Majority → | |||||||||
R41 S.C. Running |
R42 Texas Running |
R43 W.Va. Running |
R44 Alaska Unknown |
R45 Idaho Unknown |
R46 Me. Unknown |
R47 Miss. Unknown |
R48 Neb. Unknown |
R49 Okla. Unknown |
R50 S.D. Unknown |
R40 N.C. Running |
R39 Mont. Running |
R38 La. Running |
R37 Ky. Running |
R36 Iowa Running |
R35 Ga. Running |
R34 Colo. Running |
R33 Ark. Running |
R32 Ariz. Running |
R31 |
R21 | R22 | R23 | R24 | R25 | R26 | R27 | R28 | R29 | R30 |
R20 | R19 | R18 | R17 | R16 | R15 | R14 | R13 | R12 | R11 |
R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 |
After the elections
D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
D20 | D19 | D18 | D17 | D16 | D15 | D14 | D13 | D12 | D11 |
D21 | D22 | D23 | D24 | D25 | D26 | D27 | D28 | D29 | D30 |
TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | I2 | I1 | D33 | D32 | D31 |
TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
Majority → | |||||||||
TBD | |||||||||
TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | |
TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | R31 |
R30 | R29 | R28 | R27 | R26 | R25 | R24 | R23 | R22 | R21 |
R20 | R19 | R18 | R17 | R16 | R15 | R14 | R13 | R12 | R11 |
R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 |
Key: |
|
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Pre-election predictions
Most election predictors use:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used sometimes): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean": slight advantage
- "likely" or "favored": significant, but surmountable, advantage (*highest rating given by Fox News)
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
State | PVI[1] | Incumbent | Last Election[c] |
Cook Apr 19, 2019[2] |
IE May 6, 2019[3] |
Sabato Mar 25, 2019[4] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | R+14 | Doug Jones | 50.0% D (2017 Special) |
Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tossup |
Alaska | R+9 | Dan Sullivan | 48.0% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
Arizona (Special) |
R+5 | Martha McSally | 47.6% R (2018) |
Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
Arkansas | R+15 | Tom Cotton | 56.5% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
Colorado | D+1 | Cory Gardner | 48.2% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
Delaware | D+6 | Chris Coons | 55.8% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
Georgia | R+5 | David Perdue | 52.9% R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R |
Idaho | R+19 | Jim Risch | 65.3% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
Illinois | D+7 | Dick Durbin | 53.5% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
Iowa | R+3 | Joni Ernst | 52.1% R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R |
Kansas | R+13 | Pat Roberts (retiring) |
53.1% R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R |
Kentucky | R+15 | Mitch McConnell | 56.2% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R |
Louisiana | R+11 | Bill Cassidy | 55.9% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
Maine | D+3 | Susan Collins | 68.5% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R |
Massachusetts | D+12 | Ed Markey | 61.9% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
Michigan | D+1 | Gary Peters | 54.6% D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D |
Minnesota | D+1 | Tina Smith | 53.0% D (2018 Special) |
Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
Mississippi | R+9 | Cindy Hyde-Smith | 53.6% R (2018 Special) |
Likely R | Safe R | Safe R |
Montana | R+11 | Steve Daines | 57.9% R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R |
Nebraska | R+14 | Ben Sasse | 64.5% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
New Hampshire | EVEN | Jeanne Shaheen | 51.5% D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D |
New Jersey | D+7 | Cory Booker | 55.8% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
New Mexico | D+3 | Tom Udall (retiring) |
55.6% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D |
North Carolina | R+3 | Thom Tillis | 48.8% R | Likely R | Tilt R | Lean R |
Oklahoma | R+20 | Jim Inhofe | 68.0% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
Oregon | D+5 | Jeff Merkley | 55.7% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
Rhode Island | D+10 | Jack Reed | 70.6% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
South Carolina | R+8 | Lindsey Graham | 55.3% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
South Dakota | R+14 | Mike Rounds | 50.4% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
Tennessee | R+14 | Lamar Alexander (retiring) |
61.9% R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R |
Texas | R+8 | John Cornyn | 61.6% R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R |
Virginia | D+1 | Mark Warner | 49.1% D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
West Virginia | R+19 | Shelley Moore Capito | 62.1% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
Wyoming | R+25 | Mike Enzi (retiring) |
72.2% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
Race summary
Special elections during the preceding Congress
In this special election, the winner will serve when they are elected and qualified.
State (linked to summaries below) |
Incumbent | Results | Candidates | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Senator | Party | Electoral history | |||
Arizona (Class 3) |
Martha McSally | Republican | 2019 (Appointed) | Incumbent running. | Martha McSally (Republican) Mark Kelly (Democratic)[5] Craig R. Brittain (Republican) [6] |
Elections leading to the next Congress
In these general elections, the winners will be elected for the term beginning January 3, 2021. All of the elections involve the Class 2 seats; ordered by state.
State (linked to summaries below) |
Incumbent | Results | Candidates | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Senator | Party | Electoral history | |||
Alabama | Doug Jones | Democratic | 2017 (Special) | Incumbent running. |
|
Alaska | Dan Sullivan | Republican | 2014 | Incumbent's intent unknown. |
|
Arkansas | Tom Cotton | Republican | 2014 | Incumbent running. |
|
Colorado | Cory Gardner | Republican | 2014 | Incumbent running. |
|
Delaware | Chris Coons | Democratic | 2010 (Special) 2014 |
Incumbent running. |
|
Georgia | David Perdue | Republican | 2014 | Incumbent running. |
|
Idaho | Jim Risch | Republican | 2008 2014 |
Incumbent's intent unknown. |
|
Illinois | Dick Durbin | Democratic | 1996 2002 2008 2014 |
Incumbent running. |
|
Iowa | Joni Ernst | Republican | 2014 | Incumbent running. |
|
Kansas | Pat Roberts | Republican | 1996 2002 2008 2014 |
Incumbent retiring. |
|
Kentucky | Mitch McConnell | Republican | 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 |
Incumbent running. |
|
Louisiana | Bill Cassidy | Republican | 2014 | Incumbent running. |
|
Maine | Susan Collins | Republican | 1996 2002 2008 2014 |
Incumbent's intent unknown. | |
Massachusetts | Ed Markey | Democratic | 2013 (Special) 2014 |
Incumbent running. | |
Michigan | Gary Peters | Democratic | 2014 | Incumbent running. |
|
Minnesota | Tina Smith | Democratic | 2018 (Appointed) 2018 (Special) |
Incumbent running. |
|
Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | Republican | 2018 (Appointed) 2018 (Special) |
Incumbent's intent unknown. |
|
Montana | Steve Daines | Republican | 2014 | Incumbent running. |
|
Nebraska | Ben Sasse | Republican | 2014 | Incumbent's intent unknown. |
|
New Hampshire | Jeanne Shaheen | Democratic | 2008 2014 |
Incumbent running. |
|
New Jersey | Cory Booker | Democratic | 2013 (Special) 2014 |
Incumbent's intent unknown. | |
New Mexico | Tom Udall | Democratic | 2008 2014 |
Incumbent retiring.[44] |
|
North Carolina | Thom Tillis | Republican | 2014 | Incumbent running. |
|
Oklahoma | Jim Inhofe | Republican | 1994 (Special) 1996 2002 2008 2014 |
Incumbent's intent unknown. |
|
Oregon | Jeff Merkley | Democratic | 2008 2014 |
Incumbent running. |
|
Rhode Island | Jack Reed | Democratic | 1996 2002 2008 2014 |
Incumbent running. | |
South Carolina | Lindsey Graham | Republican | 2002 2008 2014 |
Incumbent running. | |
South Dakota | Mike Rounds | Republican | 2014 | Incumbent's intent unknown. |
|
Tennessee | Lamar Alexander | Republican | 2002 2008 2014 |
Incumbent retiring. |
|
Texas | John Cornyn | Republican | 2002 2008 2014 |
Incumbent running. | |
Virginia | Mark Warner | Democratic | 2008 2014 |
Incumbent's intent unknown. |
|
West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito | Republican | 2014 | Incumbent running. |
|
Wyoming | Mike Enzi | Republican | 1996 2002 2008 2014 |
Incumbent retiring. |
|
Alabama
Incumbent Democrat Doug Jones was elected in a special election in 2017, narrowly defeating Republican nominee Roy Moore. Jones is running for his first full term as a senator.[64]
Congressman Bradley Byrne, former Auburn University football head coach Tommy Tuberville, and state Representative Arnold Mooney[65] are seeking the Republican nomination.[66][67] Other potential Republican candidates include Roy Moore,[68] state Senator Del Marsh, State Auditor Jim Zeigler, and Congressman Gary Palmer.[66] On April 23, Marsh announced that he would not be a candidate.[69]
Alaska
One-term incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan was elected to a first term in 2014, defeating incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Begich.
Potential Democratic candidates include Begich, Anchorage Mayor Ethan Berkowitz, and 2018 U.S. House nominee Alyse Galvin.
Arizona (Special)
Republican Senator John McCain was elected to a sixth term in 2016, but died in office in August 2018.[70] Republican Governor Doug Ducey appointed former Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat for the remainder of the 115th United States Congress.[71] After the end of the 115th Congress, Governor Ducey appointed outgoing Congresswoman and 2018 Republican Senate nominee Martha McSally as Kyl's successor for the 116th Congress.[72] McSally is running in the 2020 special election to fill the remainder of the term, which expires in 2022.[73]
Former astronaut Mark Kelly is running for the Democratic nomination.[5] Other potential Democratic candidates include Congressman Greg Stanton, the former Mayor of Phoenix.[74]
Arkansas
One-term incumbent Republican Tom Cotton was elected to a first term in 2014 after serving two years in the United States House of Representatives, defeating incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor by a comfortable margin. Cotton is seeking a second term in 2020.[11]
Potential Democratic candidates include state Senator Joyce Elliott.[75] Joshua Mahony, a wealthy philanthropist and 2018 Democratic nominee for Congress in Arkansas’s 3rd congressional district has filed organization papers for a U.S. Senate campaign.[76]
Colorado
One-term incumbent Republican Cory Gardner was elected to a first term in 2014 after serving six years in the United States House of Representatives, defeating one-term incumbent Mark Udall. Gardner is seeking re-election in 2020.[77]
Democratic candidates include former state Senator Mike Johnston, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff,[77] former U.S. Attorney John F. Walsh, state Department of Higher Education Director Dan Baer,[78] community organizer Lorena Garcia,[79] pharmacist Dustin Leitzel,[18] and Derrick Blanton.[13] Other potential Democratic candidates include Congressman Ed Perlmutter,[77] and Secretary of State Jena Griswold.[80]
Delaware
One-term Democrat Chris Coons was re-elected in 2014; Coons first took office after winning a 2010 special election, which occurred after long-time Senator Joe Biden resigned his seat to become Vice President of the United States.
Georgia
One-term incumbent Republican David Perdue was elected to a first term in 2014. He is seeking a second term in 2020.[81]
Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson is running for the Democratic nomination. Potential Democratic candidates include, pastor Raphael Warnock, former congressional candidate Jon Ossoff, former state Senator Jason Carter, 2018 Lt. Governor nominee Sarah Riggs Amico, and state Representative Scott Holcomb.[81] Former state Representative Stacey Abrams, widely considered a potential candidate, declined to run.[82]
Idaho
Two-term incumbent Republican Jim Risch was easily re-elected in 2014.
Illinois
Four-term incumbent and Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, a Democrat, was re-elected in 2014. Durbin will be running for reelection and is the heavy favorite to win his party's nomination over state Representative Anne Stava-Murray[83].
Potential Republican candidates include former Governor Bruce Rauner, U.S. Representatives Rodney Davis and Darin LaHood, and 2018 Republican nominee for state Attorney General Erika Harold.
Iowa
One-term incumbent Republican Joni Ernst was elected to a first term in 2014 after serving four years in the state Senate. She is seeking a second term in 2020.[84]
Potential Democratic candidates include state Auditor Rob Sand, former Governor Chet Culver, and congresswoman Abby Finkenauer,[85] as well as 2018 congressional candidates J.D. Scholten and Theresa Greenfield.[86]
Kansas
Four-term incumbent Republican Pat Roberts is retiring. State Treasurer Jake LaTurner is seeking the Republican nomination.[87] Potential Republican candidates include Congressman Roger Marshall,[87] state Senate President Susan Wagle,[88] former Governor Jeff Colyer,[89] Attorney General Derek Schmidt, and former Secretary of State Kris Kobach.[90]
Democrat Elliott Adams is running.[91] Potential Democratic candidates include former U.S. Attorney for Kansas Barry Grissom and former Congressional candidate Brent Welder.[92]
Kentucky
Six-term incumbent and Senate Majority Leader Republican Mitch McConnell was re-elected by a comfortable margin in 2014.
Steven Cox is running for the Democratic nomination.[31] Other potential Democratic candidates include state Attorney General Andy Beshear, 2018 congressional candidate Amy McGrath, and sports radio show host Matt Jones.[93]
Louisiana
One-term incumbent Bill Cassidy was first elected in 2014 after serving six years in the United States House of Representatives, defeating three-term incumbent Mary Landrieu.
Maine
Four-term incumbent Republican Susan Collins was re-elected by a wide margin in 2014.
Perennial candidate Max Linn is running for the Republican nomination.[94] Potential Democratic candidates include 2018 Senate candidate Zak Ringelstein, state House Speaker Sara Gideon,[95] Congresswoman Chellie Pingree, Congressman Jared Golden, former Lewiston Mayor James Howaniec[96], and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Betsy Sweet.[97]
Massachusetts
One-term incumbent Democrat Ed Markey was re-elected in 2014; Markey first took office after winning a 2013 special election to replace longtime incumbent John Kerry, who resigned to become U.S. Secretary of State. Republican former state Representative Geoff Diehl is a potential candidate.
Michigan
One-term incumbent Democrat Gary Peters was elected to a first term in 2014 after serving six years in the U.S. House of Representatives. He is seeking a second term in 2020.[98]
Potential Republican candidates include 2018 Senate nominee John James,[99] former Congresswoman Candice Miller,[100] former state House Speaker Tom Leonard, and businessman Sandy Pensler.[101]
Minnesota
Incumbent Democrat Tina Smith was appointed to replace Al Franken in 2018 after serving as Lieutenant Governor, and she won a special election later in 2018 to serve the remainder of Franken's term. She is seeking a full term in 2020.[102]
Potential Republican candidates include 2018 lieutenant governor candidate Donna Bergstrom,[103] state Senator Karin Housley,[104] and former state Representative Doug Wardlow.[105]
Mississippi
After seven-term incumbent Republican Senator Thad Cochran resigned in April 2018, Republican Governor Phil Bryant appointed state Agriculture Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith to succeed Cochran until a special election could be held later in the year. Hyde-Smith won the November 2018 special election to fill the remainder of Cochran's term, which ends in January 2021. Hyde-Smith may seek a full term in the regularly-scheduled 2020 election. Other potential Republican candidates include state Senator Chris McDaniel, who also sought the seat in 2014 and 2018.[106]
Potential Democratic candidates include former United States Secretary of Agriculture and 2018 Senate candidate Mike Espy.[107]
Montana
One-term incumbent Republican Steve Daines was elected to a first term in 2014 after serving two years in the United States House of Representatives. He is running for reelection.[40]
Potential Democratic candidates include Helena Mayor Wilmot Collins. Governor Steve Bullock has indicated that he will not enter the race.[108]
Nebraska
One-term incumbent Republican Ben Sasse was elected to a first term in 2014 after serving as President of Midland University.
New Hampshire
Two-term incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen was narrowly re-elected in 2014. Shaheen is seeking a third term in 2020.[109]
Potential Republican challengers include former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte,[110] Ambassador to New Zealand Scott Brown, state House Speaker William L. O'Brien, and businessman Jay Lucas. Governor Chris Sununu has indicated that he will not run for the Senate.[111]
New Jersey
One-term incumbent Democrat Cory Booker was re-elected in 2014; Booker first took office by winning a 2013 special election after serving seven years as Mayor of Newark. Booker is running for President in 2020, but state allows him to simultaneously run for both president and for the U.S. Senate.[112] Other potential Democratic candidates include Governor Phil Murphy, Congressman Donald Norcross, and Congressman Josh Gottheimer.[113] Among Republicans, attorney and political commentator Matt Rooney is a potential candidate.[114]
New Mexico
Two-term incumbent Democrat Tom Udall is retiring in 2020.[44] U.S. Representative Ben Ray Luján [115] is running for the Democratic nomination. Another potential Democratic candidate is New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver.[116] On April 10, 2019, U.S. Representative Deb Haaland said that she would not be a candidate, but instead seek reelection.[117]
Among Republicans, former U.S. Interior Department official Gavin Clarkson has announced his candidacy.[118] Potential Republican candidates include former Governor Susana Martinez, former Albuquerque Mayor Richard J. Berry,[119] former U.S. Representative and current Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson, former U.S. Representative Steve Pearce and former State Representative Yvette Herrell.[120]
North Carolina
One-term incumbent Republican Thom Tillis was elected to a first term in 2014 after serving eight years in the state House of Representatives, narrowly defeating one-term incumbent Kay Hagan. Tillis could also potentially run for Governor.[121][122]
State Senator Erica D. Smith,[50] and Mecklenburg County Commissioner Trevor Fuller[49] are running for the Democratic nomination. Potential Democratic candidates include state Senator Jeff Jackson.[74]
Oklahoma
Four-term incumbent Republican Jim Inhofe was re-elected in 2014. Former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt may run for the seat if Inhofe retires.[123]
Oregon
Two-term incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley was re-elected by a comfortable margin in 2014. Merkley, who was considered to be a possible 2020 presidential candidate, opted to forgo the crowded contest and is running for re-election to his seat.[124]
Rhode Island
Four-term incumbent Democrat Jack Reed was easily re-elected in 2014. Reed is seeking a fifth term.[54]
South Carolina
Three-term incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham was re-elected in 2014. Former South Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Jaime Harrison is a possible candidate.
South Dakota
One-term incumbent Republican Mike Rounds was elected to a first term in 2014 after serving two terms as Governor of South Dakota. Potential Democratic candidates may include state Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton, the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nominee.[125]
Tennessee
Three-term incumbent Republican Lamar Alexander was re-elected in 2014. He announced in December 2018 that he would not seek re-election.[126] Potential Republican candidates to succeed him include former Governor Bill Haslam[127][128], Congressman Mark Green[129], and U.S. Ambassador to Japan William F. Hagerty.[130] Among Democrats, state Senator Jeff Yarbro is a possible candidate.[131]
Texas
Three-term incumbent Republican John Cornyn was re-elected in 2014 by a wide margin. He is running for re-election.[61]
MJ Hegar, an Air Force combat veteran who served as the 2018 Democratic nominee for Texas's 31st congressional district, is running.[132] Sema Hernandez, a former candidate for U.S Senate in 2018, is also seeking the Democratic nomination.[133] Potential Democratic candidates include former State Senator Wendy Davis, Congressman Colin Allred, Congresswoman Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, Congresswoman Veronica Escobar, Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia, San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg, Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, and state Representative Rafael Anchia.[134]
Virginia
Two-term incumbent Democrat Mark Warner was re-elected by a very narrow margin in 2014 after winning easily in 2008. Former U.S. Representative Scott Taylor is a potential Republican candidate.[135]
West Virginia
One-term incumbent Republican Shelley Moore Capito was easily elected over a credible opponent after serving 14 years in the U.S. House of Representatives. Potential Democratic candidates may include former state Senator Richard Ojeda, a nominee for the U.S. House of Representatives in West Virginia's 3rd congressional district in 2018 and candidate for President in 2020.
Wyoming
Four-term incumbent Republican Mike Enzi was re-elected in 2014. Enzi announced in May 2019 that he will retire. Congresswoman Liz Cheney and former two-term Governor Matt Mead are potential Republican candidates.[136]
See also
- United States presidential election, 2020
- 2020 United States elections
- 2020 United States House of Representatives elections
- 2020 United States gubernatorial elections
Notes
- ^ Democrats would need to pick up four seats if the independents continue to caucus with the Democratic Party and the Democratic Party does not win the vice presidency.
If the Democrats do win the vice presidency and the two Independents continue to caucus with them, then they will need a three seat gain to take control of the Senate. - ^ The two independents, Bernie Sanders and Angus King, have both caucused with the Democratic Party since joining the Senate.
- ^ Incumbent in 2014, except where noted
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