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{{for|the 2009 BBC (UK) TV series|Guesstimation (game show)}} |
{{for|the 2009 BBC (UK) TV series|Guesstimation (game show)}} |
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'''''Guesstimate''''' is an informal [[English language|English]] [[portmanteau]] of ''[[wikt:guess|guess]]'' and ''[[estimate]]'', first used by American |
'''''Guesstimate''''' is an informal [[English language|English]] [[portmanteau]] of ''[[wikt:guess|guess]]'' and ''[[estimate]]'', first used by American [[statistician]]s in 1934<ref>[http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=guess ''guess''] Online Etymological Dictionary</ref> or 1935.<ref name=duna>[http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/guesstimate ''guesstimate''] Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1)</ref> It is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information,<ref>[http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/guesstimate ''guesstimate''] [[Merriam-Webster]] On-line Dictionary</ref><ref>[http://encarta.msn.com/dictionary_1861615713/guesstimate.html ''guesstimate''] MSN Encarta Dictionary. [https://www.webcitation.org/5kwqKSnuz?url=http://encarta.msn.com/dictionary_1861615713/guesstimate.html Archived] 2009-10-31.</ref> or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by [[guess]]work or [[conjecture]].<ref name=duna /><ref name=ahd>[http://www.bartleby.com/61/17/G0301700.html ''guesstimate''] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080316182507/http://www.bartleby.com/61/17/G0301700.html |date=2008-03-16 }} American Heritage Dictionary</ref><ref>Compact Oxford English Dictionary [http://www.askoxford.com/concise_oed/guesstimate?view=uk guesstimate]</ref> Like the words estimate and guess, guesstimate may be used as a [[verb]] or a [[noun]] (with the same change in [[pronunciation]] as estimate). A guesstimate may be a first rough [[approximation]] pending a more accurate estimate, or it may be an educated guess at something for which no better information will become available. |
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The word may be used in a pejorative sense if information for a better estimate is available but ignored.<ref>"Guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals" from back cover of [[For Dummies|Statistics for Dummies]]</ref><ref>[http://www.thirteen.org/edonline/nttidb/lessons/sf/guesssf.html Guesstimate; Grades 4-6] NTTI Lesson Plan</ref> |
The word may be used in a [[pejorative]] sense if information for a better estimate is available but ignored.<ref>"Guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals" from back cover of [[For Dummies|Statistics for Dummies]]</ref><ref>[http://www.thirteen.org/edonline/nttidb/lessons/sf/guesssf.html Guesstimate; Grades 4-6] NTTI Lesson Plan</ref> |
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Guesstimation techniques are used: |
Guesstimation techniques are used: |
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Revision as of 08:48, 7 November 2019
Guesstimate is an informal English portmanteau of guess and estimate, first used by American statisticians in 1934[1] or 1935.[2] It is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information,[3][4] or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture.[2][5][6] Like the words estimate and guess, guesstimate may be used as a verb or a noun (with the same change in pronunciation as estimate). A guesstimate may be a first rough approximation pending a more accurate estimate, or it may be an educated guess at something for which no better information will become available.
The word may be used in a pejorative sense if information for a better estimate is available but ignored.[7][8]
Guesstimation techniques are used:
- in physics, where the use of guesstimation techniques to solve Fermi problems is taught as a useful skill to science students.[9]
- in cosmology, where the Drake equation is a well-known guesstimation method.[10]
- in economics, where economic forecasts and statistics are often based on guesstimates.[11]
- in software engineering, where new development of features and release timelines are based on effort guesstimates of tasks.
Lawrence Weinstein and John Adam's book Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin, based on the course "Physics on the Back of an Envelope" at Old Dominion University, promotes guesstimation techniques as a useful life skill. It includes many worked examples of guesstimation, including the following problems:
- How many total miles do Americans drive in a year?
- Answer: about 2 trillion (2x1012).[12]
- How much high-level nuclear waste does a 1 GW nuclear power plant produce in a year?
- Answer: about 60 tons.[13]
See also
References
Look up guesstimate in Wiktionary, the free dictionary.
- ^ guess Online Etymological Dictionary
- ^ a b guesstimate Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1)
- ^ guesstimate Merriam-Webster On-line Dictionary
- ^ guesstimate MSN Encarta Dictionary. Archived 2009-10-31.
- ^ guesstimate Archived 2008-03-16 at the Wayback Machine American Heritage Dictionary
- ^ Compact Oxford English Dictionary guesstimate
- ^ "Guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals" from back cover of Statistics for Dummies
- ^ Guesstimate; Grades 4-6 NTTI Lesson Plan
- ^ Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin, Tony Mann, Times Higher Education Supplement
- ^ The Drake Equation WeAreNotAlone.net
- ^ Economic outlooks often rely on guesstimation, M. Ray Perryman, San Antonio Business Journal
- ^ Weinstein & Adam (2008) Problem 5.1
- ^ Weinstein & Adam (2008) Problem 10.5
Sources
- Weinstein, Lawrence; Adam, John A. (2008). Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin. Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0-691-12949-5.