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2021 Taliban offensive

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"Taliban offensive" redirects here. For previous military campaigns against mujahideen factions in the 1990s, see Taliban's rise to power. For other conflicts involving the Taliban, see Afghanistan conflict (1978–present).

2021 Taliban offensive
Part of the War in Afghanistan and the Taliban insurgency

A map of Afghanistan showing the Taliban offensive (13 August 2021)
Date1 May 2021 – present
(3 years, 7 months, 3 weeks and 3 days)
Location
Afghanistan
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes
  • Taliban captures 171 districts increasing the number of districts it controls in Afghanistan to 247[7][8]
  • Taliban captures 18 of Afghanistan's 34 provincial capitals[9][10]
Belligerents

Afghanistan Taliban

Al-Qaeda[3]
Supported by:
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)[3][4]
Lashkar-e-Taiba[3]
Jaish-e-Mohammed[3]
Harkat-ul-Mujahideen[3]		  Afghanistan
 United States[5][6]
Commanders and leaders

Afghanistan Hibatullah Akhundzada
Afghanistan Abdul Ghani Baradar
Afghanistan Sirajuddin Haqqani[1]
Afghanistan Mohammad Yaqoob
Afghanistan Abdul Khaliq †[11]
Afghanistan Mawlawi Mubarak †[12]

Afghanistan Qari Khalid †[13]		 Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani
Afghanistan Abdullah Abdullah
Afghanistan Abdul Rashid Dostum[14]
Afghanistan Bismillah Khan Mohammadi[15]
Afghanistan Gen. Hibatullah Alizai[16]
Afghanistan Ahmad Massoud[17]
Afghanistan Ismail Khan Surrendered[18]
Afghanistan Dawa Khan Menapal †[19]
Afghanistan Khyal Nabi Ahmadzai Surrendered[20][21]
United States Joe Biden
United States Gen. Mark Milley
United States Gen. Kenneth McKenzie[22]
Units involved

Taliban forces

Other militant groups

Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF)

Pro-government militias[17][32][33]

United States Air Force[36]
United States Navy

Strength
c. 85,000[38] ANSF: c. 300,000[39]
Casualties and losses

Afghanistan Taliban
Afghan government claim:
9,819 killed[40]
5,472 wounded[40]
54 captured[40]

Equipment:
  • Unknown number of artillery gun and military vehicles destroyed[22]

Afghanistan Afghanistan
Afghan official figure:
Not disclosed[41][42]
As per media reports:
1,537 killed[43]
972 wounded[43]
677 captured[43]
1,581+ deserted[44]
Hundreds of troops surrendered[45]

Equipment:
1,031 civilians killed[51][43]
2,043 civilians injured[51][43]
244,000 civilians displaced[52]

An ongoing military offensive by the Taliban and allied militant groups, including al-Qaeda,[3] against the government of Afghanistan and its allies began on 1 May 2021,[53][54][7] simultaneous with the withdrawal of most U.S. troops from Afghanistan.[55] In the early stage of the offensive, the Taliban made significant advances in the countryside, increasing the number of districts it controls from 73 to 223.[8] Starting on 6 August, the Taliban captured eighteen of Afghanistan's thirty-four provincial capitals, including Kandahar and Herat,[56] and by 10 August, the Taliban controlled 65% of the country.[57]

The offensive is noted for the rapid territorial gains of the Taliban,[54][57] as well as its domestic and international ramifications.[58] On 10 August, U.S. officials estimated that the Afghan capital, Kabul, could fall to the Taliban within 30 to 90 days.[59]

Background

In September 2020, over 5,000 Taliban prisoners, including 400 of whom were accused and convicted of major crimes such as murder, were released by the Afghan government as part of the Doha Agreement between the United States and the Taliban.[60] According to Afghanistan's National Security Council, many of the released prisoners who were "experts" returned to the battlefield and strengthened the Taliban's hand.[61] International counterterrorism experts and some U.S. officials argued that the Afghan National Security Forces' (ANSF) swift collapse in case of a U.S. withdrawal "should come as no surprise". One expert pointed at the Taliban had been able to move their forces freely throughout Afghanistan after the Doha Agreement with almost no intervention from Afghan government forces. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko stated that the U.S. military command "knew how bad the Afghan military was".[39]

Timeline

May

In May, the Taliban captured 15 districts from the Afghan government, including Nirkh and Jalrez districts in Maidan Wardak Province.[62][63] Among the locations captured was the Dahla Dam in Kandahar Province, Afghanistan's second largest dam.[64] During the month, 405 ANSF troops and 260 civilians were killed during the clashes with the Taliban, while the Afghan Ministry of Defense claimed killing 2,146 Taliban fighters.[43][40]

By the end of May, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden had completely withdrawn their forces from Afghanistan.[65]

June

In June, the Taliban captured 69 districts from the Afghan government and entered the cities of Kunduz and Puli Khumri.[62][66][55] The city of Mazar-i-Sharif was besieged by the Taliban.[67] Among the locations captured by the Taliban was Afghanistan's main border crossing with Tajikistan and the Saydabad District in Maidan Wardak Province, which is called the gateway to Afghanistan's capital city, Kabul.[68][69] In terms of equipment, the Taliban captured 700 trucks and Humvees from the Afghan security forces, as well as dozens of armored vehicles and artillery systems.[47]

An Afghan Air Force Mil Mi-17 was shot down by the Taliban, killing three pilots, while a UH-60 Black Hawk was damaged on the ground after an outpost belonging to the Afghan Armed Forces was shelled by the Taliban in the same month.[31][46] On 16 June, Taliban militants executed 22 surrendering Afghan Army commandoes in the town of Dawlat Abad; eyewitnesses stated that the language the Taliban militants spoke among themselves was foreign, indicating that the fighters were not from the area.[70] During the month, 703 Afghan National Security Forces and 208 civilians were killed during the clashes with the Taliban, while the Afghan Ministry of Defense claimed killing 1,535 Taliban fighters.[43][40] On 19 June, Afghan National Army chief of staff, defense and interior ministers were replaced by President Ashraf Ghani.[71] By the end of June, all Resolute Support Mission's member countries had withdrawn their troops, except for the U.K., Turkey, and the U.S.[citation needed]

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin meeting with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in June 2021

On 22 June, the Taliban captured Shir Khan Bandar, Afghanistan's main Tajikistan border crossing.[72] 13 districts fell to the Taliban within 24 hours.[73] On the same day, heavy fighting was also occurring in Baghlan Province after Afghan forces launched a military operation on the outskirts of Pul-e-Khumri, the provincial capital, killing 17 Taliban militants including Qari Khalid, a Taliban divisional commander.[74] Simultaneously, Taliban forces took control of Balkh and encircled Mazar-i-Sharif, the capital of Balkh Province.[75][76] On 23 June, the Taliban and Afghan forces clashed inside Pul-e Khumri.[77]

On 25 June, the Taliban took control of the Shinwari District and the Ghorband District in Parwan Province north of Kabul.[78] That same day NBC News reported that the Taliban "were surprised at the speed of their advance and had avoided capturing some targets so as not to run afoul of the U.S.",[79] and the Afghan government launched a program called National Mobilization that aimed to arm militia groups to fight the Taliban.[80] Meanwhile, Taliban deputy emir Sirajuddin Haqqani issued a series of instructions on Voice of Jihad for the governance of territories seized in the offensive. FDD's Long War Journal researcher Thomas Joscelyn argued that Haqqani's statements "read like those that would be issued by the head of a nation".[1]

On 27 June, Chaki Wardak District and Saydabad District fell to the Taliban after at least 50 Afghan troops surrendered and were captured by the Taliban. On the same day Rustaq District, Shortepa District and the Arghistan District fell to the Taliban. ToloNews reported that 108 districts fell to the Taliban in the last two months and the Afghan army had only managed to re-take 10.[81][82] On 29 June, the Taliban launched an offensive on Ghazni, causing violent clashes within the city.[83]

July

Afghan pro-government forces assemble in Jowzjan Province

In July, the Taliban captured 64 districts from the Afghan government and entered the second and third largest cities of Afghanistan, Kandahar and Herat respectively.[7][84][85] During the month, 335 Afghan National Security Forces and 189 civilians were killed during the clashes with the Taliban, while the Afghan Ministry of Defense claimed killing 3,159 Taliban fighters.[43][40] Around 1,500 Afghan soldiers deserted into Tajikistan, according to its CSTO envoy.[44] Iranian media reported that around 300 Afghan soldiers and civilians had crossed the border and entered into Iran to escape the Taliban.[44]

On 2 July, Germany and Italy withdrew their troops from Afghanistan, and U.S. troops left Bagram Airfield, handing it to the Afghan Armed Forces.[86]

On the first weekend of July, hundreds of armed women took to the streets of northern and central Afghanistan in demonstrations against the Taliban offensive, the largest one taking place in Firozkoh, the capital of Ghor Province. The provincial governor Abdulzahir Faizzada reported in an interview with The Guardian that many Afghan women, some of whom recently escaped the Taliban, have been learning to use firearms in order to defend themselves, with some already having battled the Taliban themselves. Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid denounced the reports as "propaganda" and declared that "women will never pick up guns against us."[87] During the weekend, the Taliban captured nine border posts belonging to the Afghan Army in Kunar Province near the border with Pakistan, during which 39 personnel of the Afghan Army surrendered to the Taliban while another 31 fled to Pakistan.[44]

On 5 July, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon announced the deployment of 20,000 troops on the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border, in order to avoid a spillover of the Afghan war into Tajikistan. On 9 July, Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) announced that the Russian Federation would deploy 7,000 troops on the border as well to aid Tajikistan.[88][89] On 7 July, pro-government forces defeated a Taliban attempt to capture the city of Qala e Naw.[25] On 8 July, the Taliban captured the strategically important Karakh District in Herat Province.[85]

Taliban militants rest at a village

On 8 July, Afghan soldiers executed an Afghan villager by making him sit on an improvised explosive device (IED) before it exploded.[90] The victim, named Barakatullah, was accused of aiding the Taliban by Afghan police and anti-Taliban militia. The father of Barakatullah denied that his son was working with the Taliban. The incident took place south of the city of Sharana, the capital of Paktika province and the video of the incident was uploaded on TikTok. France 24 Observers team was able to verify and geolocate the video. Fawad Aman, a spokesperson for the Afghan ministry of defence, denied that any such incident took place.[90] An Afghan journalist, Naseeb Zadran, said that this not an isolated incident and reflects the impunity enjoyed by Afghan army.[90]

On 10 July, the Taliban captured Panjwayi District in Kandahar Province.[91] The Taliban also surrounded the city of Ghazni in central Afghanistan.[92] The border crossings of Torghundi with Tajikistan and Islam Qala with Iran were captured by the Taliban. During the capture of the Islam Qala border crossing, some Afghan security and customs officials fled across the border with Iran to escape the Taliban.[93][94] On 11 July, Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton announced the end of its military presence in Afghanistan, with the last 80 personnel having left the country in the past weeks.[95] On 12 July, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan Austin S. Miller stepped down from his post.[96] As of 12 July, the Taliban has seized 148 districts from the Afghan government.[7] On 14 July, the Afghan border post at Spin Boldak was captured by the Taliban force;[97] Reuters Indian journalist Danish Siddiqui was killed there while covering the fighting two days later.[98]

On 12 July, Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow ordered the deployment of troops and heavy weapons and armour on the Afghanistan-Turkmenistan border, in order to avoid a spillover of the Afghan conflict into Turkmenistan.[99] On 16 July, Uzbekistan hosted a conference between a number of the region's leaders and foreign diplomats, including Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, in order to promote peace and prevent a civil war.[100]

Armed locals protest in support of the Afghan government in Jowzjan Province

On 21 July, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley reported that half of all Afghan districts were under Taliban control and that momentum was "sort of" on the side with the Taliban.[101] On 22 July, the Pentagon confirmed that the United States Air Force had carried out four airstrikes in Afghanistan at the request of Afghan officials. Two airstrikes aimed at destroying military equipment captured by the Taliban from Afghan security forces; one artillery gun and one military vehicle were destroyed.[36] Meanwhile, the battle for Kandahar city continued, with the settlement being essentially besieged by the rebels. All surrounding districts save for Daman District had fallen under Taliban control, and only Kandahar's air field (crucial for supplying the local security forces) remained under full government control. According to the FDD's Long War Journal, the potential fall of Daman District to the insurgents would make it extremely difficult for the government forces to hold onto Kandahar city.[102] On 22 July 100 people were killed in a mass shooting in Spin Boldak, Kandahar Province.[103] However, pro-government forces also scored victories in Bamyan Province, as local militias and the police retook the districts of Saighan and Kahmard from the Taliban,[104] and in Herat Province, where the government recaptured Karakh District.[85]

On 24 July, the government imposed a curfew between 10 p.m. and 4 a.m. in all but three provinces of the country in order to "curb violence and reduce the movements and advances of the Taliban".[105][106]

Situation on 25 July

On 26 July, a report by representative of the United Nations Deborah Lyons showed a sharp increase in civilian deaths as a consequence of the fighting between the government and the Taliban. Lyons implored both sides to protect civilians as she says that women and children are being killed.[107] The same day around 46 Afghan troops, including 5 officers, sought refuge in Pakistan after they were unable to defend their military post.[44]

On 28 July, a delegation from the Taliban met in Tianjin with the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, who pledged the People's Republic of China's support for the Taliban on the condition that they cut ties with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement,[108][109][110] vowing to "bring the Taliban back into the political mainstream" and offering to host peace talks between the Government of Afghanistan and the Taliban.[111]

By 31 July, the Taliban had entered the provincial capitals of both Helmand and Herat provinces, capturing scores of districts in said provinces and capturing border crossings with Iran and Turkmenistan.[112][113] Among others, Herat's important Karakh District was again overrun by the rebels. The insurgents also cut the road between Herat International Airport and Herat city, although the airport remained under government control. The Long War Journal argued that the government's ability to keep control of Herat city without the airport supplying the defenders was questionable. Meanwhile, Kandahar city remained contested.[85]

August

Afghan National Army soldiers in combat with the Taliban

From 1 to 2 August, the Safian, Qala-e-Kohneh and Kariz areas on the outskirts of Lashkar Gah fell to the Taliban. Clashes between Taliban and the government also took place in the suburbs of the city, with the Afghan Air Force and United States Air Force attacking Taliban positions. On 3 August 40 civilians were killed and more than 100 wounded in the fighting.[114] After capturing Lashkar Gah's radio station, the Taliban began broadcasting their Voice of Sharia programming. The rebels also began to attack the city's airport. Meanwhile, the government dispatched reinforcements to prevent the city from falling to the insurgents.[115]

On 3 August 13 people—including five attackers—were killed in a Taliban bombing and shootout in Kabul.[116] The inghimasi-style operation, carried out by the Taliban's "Martyrdom Battalion", aimed at killing Defence Minister Bismillah Khan Mohammadi; he survived the attack. Mohammadi was described by the Long War Journal as one of the key government figures responsible for countering the Taliban offensive.[15]

As of 5 August, 115 Afghan National Security Forces personnel and 58 civilians were killed during the clashes with the Taliban, while the Afghan Ministry of Defense claimed killing 3,197 Taliban fighters since the start of the month.[43][40]

Fall of the provincial capitals

List of the fallen provincial capitals
Date Province Capital Order
6 August Nimruz Zaranj 1
7 August Jowzjan Sheberghan 2
8 August Kunduz Kunduz 3–4
8 August Sar-e Pol Sar-e Pol 3–4
8 August Takhar Taloqan 5
9 August Samangan Samangan 6
10 August Farah Farah 7
10 August Baghlan Puli Khumri 8
11 August Badakhshan Fayzabad 9
12 August Ghazni Ghazni 10
12 August Herat Herat 11
12 August Badghis Qala e Naw 12
12 August Kandahar Kandahar 13
13 August Helmand Lashkargah 14
13 August Ghor Firozkoh 15
13 August Logar Puli Alam 16–18
13 August Zabul Qalat 16–18
13 August Uruzgan Tarinkot 16–18
14 August Paktika Sharana 19

On 6 August, the Taliban assassinated Dawa Khan Minapal, head of Government Media and Information Centre, in Kabul. On the same day, heavy fighting was reported in Jowzjan Province as the Taliban entered the provincial capital, Sheberghan. The Taliban confirmed responsibility for the killing of Minapal and warned that it would target senior administration officials in retaliation for increasing airstrikes.[117] On the same day, the Taliban captured the provincial capital of Nimroz Province, Zaranj, making it the first capture by the Taliban of a provincial capital since the 2001 American invasion.[118] The rebels proceeded to open the local prisons, allowing many inmates to escape. As Zaranj had reportedly been captured with almost no resistance, Afghan journalist Bilal Sarwary voiced suspicions that someone had "sold" the city to the Taliban.[119] Social media posts suggested that the Taliban were welcomed by some residents of the city which has a long history of lawlessness. Images appearing on social media showed Taliban fighters driving captured military Humvees, luxury SUVs and pickups through the streets while flying Taliban flags as local residents—mostly youths and young men—cheered them on.[120] A UN envoy also warned the country was entering a 'deadlier phase' of the war.[121] The governments of Britain and United States warned its citizens to leave Afghanistan "immediately" amid the Taliban advance and the worsening security situation.[122][123]

On 7 August, the Taliban had captured Sheberghan, making it the second capture of a provincial capital.[124] Abdul Rashid Dostum, the ex-warlord and the strongman who had traditionally dominated the city, took his followers and fled to Khwaja Du Koh District, the only area in Jowzjan Province which was still government-held. Meanwhile, pro-government forces had been reduced to a pocket of resistance in Lashkar Gah, while Kandahar and Herat remained fiercely contested. Insurgents also launched repeated raids on the other provincial capitals.[125] On the same day, U.S. B-52 bombers carried out airstrikes against Taliban in Afghanistan, operating from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.[126] The United States was also using armed Reaper drones and AC-130 Spectre gunships which reportedly began daily attacks against targets around Kandahar, Herat, and Lashkar Gah.[126] The remaining ground defense of Lashkar Gah and Kandahar was mostly organized by hundreds of Afghan Commandos who had become encircled by the insurgents; as these soldiers were the Afghan military's best-trained and most highly motivated troops, the Long War Journal argued that their loss would be a major setback in regards to the Afghan security forces' future effectiveness.[23] USS Ronald Reagan was launching fast jets to provide support to the missions.[127] The American Embassy in Kabul urged all Americans to leave the country immediately due to increased security concerns, and the inability of the embassy to guarantee the safety of American citizens due to the reduction of staff at the embassy.[128]

The following day, the Taliban captured the cities of Kunduz and Sar-e Pol after heavy clashes with the Afghan National Security Forces. In the battles for the two cities, mass desertions were reported, as many Afghan National Army soldiers had been demotivated by the rapid rebel advance as well as Taliban propaganda. Pro-government forces were only able to hold onto Kunduz's military base and airport.[129][130] Reporters described the capture of Kunduz as "the most significant gain for the Taliban since they launched their offensive in May" with the city being one of Afghanistan's largest settlements, well connected to other notable locations in the country including Kabul and considered part of a major Central Asian drug smuggling route.[131] The battle for Kunduz involved the Red Unit, the Taliban elite shock troops, and resulted in the release of hundreds of prisoners including Taliban commanders.[23] The city of Taloqan was also taken by the Taliban late 8 August, making it the fifth provincial capital to fall.[132] Government forces retreated from the city after noon,[133] retaking Warsaj District and Farkhar District.[134]

On 9 August, the Taliban captured Aybak, the capital of Samangan province.[135] Deputy governor Sefatullah Samangani told the AFP news agency that government forces had withdrawn from the city without a fight after community representatives had requested that it be spared more violence.[136] On the same day, Asif Azimi, a former senator from Samangan and a prominent warlord from the Jamiat-e Islami party, defected to the Taliban. Azimi said hundreds of men under his command had also defected to the Taliban.[26] President Ashraf Ghani and other political leaders also agreed to form a joint command center to coordinate and assist with public uprising forces.[137]

Fighting intensified around Mazar-i-Sharif on 10 August. In Farah, capital of Farah Province, the Taliban had taken control of the governor's compound after heavy fighting between the Taliban and government forces.[138] They had also taken control of the police headquarters and prison. Although heavy fighting continued, Farah became the seventh provincial capital to fall.[139] An eighth provincial capital, Puli Khumri of Baghlan Province, was also captured on 10 August.[140][141]

On 11 August, Fayzabad of Badakhshan Province became the ninth provincial capital to be captured by the Taliban. After the Taliban reached the city gates, government forces decided to retreat to Farkhar District and join with security forces there from Taloqan's fall.[142] Prior to the U.S. invasion, Fayzabad had been the headquarters of the Northern Alliance.[143] On the same day, the Taliban captured Kunduz Airport and a major military base belonging to 217 Pamir Corps after hundreds of Afghan troops surrendered, securing Taliban control over their military equipment in Kunduz. The military base was responsible for security of Kunduz, Takhar and Badakhshan and was one of the eight such installations in Afghanistan;[144] its fall further reduced the suffering morale of the Afghan National Army, while effectively making a government counter-offensive to relieve Mazar-i-Sharif impossible.[145] Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa) quoted two local councillors who said that the entire 217th Pamir Corps surrendered to Taliban forces in Kunduz. A Taliban spokesman also posted a video on Twitter which purportedly showed government soldiers joining the militants' ranks.[146] The besieged troops of the 217 Pamir Corps had held out for three days before surrendering; much military equipment was captured by the rebels at the base and airport.[145] Additionally, the day saw General Wali Mohammad Ahmadzai's replacement by General Haibatullah Alizai as the new Afghan Army chief of staff. The outgoing General Ahmadzai served as an Afghan army chief of staff since he assumed the post in June 2021.[16]

On 12 August, the Taliban captured the city of Ghazni, making it the tenth provincial capital to fall within a week. The city lies along the Kabul–Kandahar Highway, serving as a gateway between Kabul and the strongholds in the south.[147][148][149] The Governor of Ghazni Province was soon arrested in Wardak for "surrendering without a fight" in exchange for safe passage.[150] On the same day, the central government offered a proposal of "power-sharing" in lieu of ceasefire; the Taliban rejected this offer stating that it wanted to establish a new Islamic emirate.[151] The same day also saw the fall of strategic Shindand Air Base in Herat[152] and capture of two UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters stationed in the Air Base.[50] Late that night, Herat, Afghanistan's third-largest city and the capital of the eponymous province, fell to the Taliban.[153] The fall of Herat, after two weeks of siege, forced Ismail Khan and other top government officials and forces to seek refuge at a provincial airport and the army corps outside the city.[18] In the morning, Khan along with Abdul Rahman Rahman, deputy interior minister, and Hasib Sediqi, Chief of National Directorate of Security in Herat, surrendered to the Taliban. The commander of 207 Zafar Corps, Khyal Nabi Ahmadzai,[20][21] and thousands of government forces also surrendered to the Taliban.[18] According to the local officials, an entire Afghan army Corps in the city of Herat crumbled.[154] By this point, they controlled 11 of Afghanistan's 34 provincial capitals.[155] The Taliban had also launched an assault on Qala e Naw, capturing the city after failing to do so in July.[156][157]

Overnight, Kandahar was captured by the Taliban: heavy clashing around the city led to the withdrawal of the ANA, thus increasing the number of provincial capitals controlled by the Taliban to thirteen.[158][159]

A few hours after the fall of Herat, the U.S. and the U.K. governments announced the deployment of 3,000 and 600 of their troops respectively to the Kabul airport, in order to secure the airlifting of their nationals, embassy staff and the Afghan civilians who worked with the coalition forces out of the country. Officials said that the first deployment would occur in the next 24 to 48 hours, and that it would be completed by the end of the month. According to said sources the plan is to use charter aircraft for the evacuation using the Kabul airport which is still open with commercial airliners flying, however that military aircraft will be used if that becomes impossible. According to the British government, the evacuation and its timing had long been planned, while an Afghan official said that the timing was brought forward as the security situation rapidly deteriorated. In addition to the 3,000 U.S troops, an additional 3,500 will be on standby in Kuwait in case the situation escalates to an armed conflict with the Taliban.[160][161][162] Canada announced that Canadian special forces units will be deployed to evacuate embassy personnel in Kabul, which houses Afghan families who have worked with Canadian staff in the past.[163] The Danish and Norwegian governments announced their embassies in Kabul will be closed due to security reasons and will make plans to evacuate their diplomatic staff and Afghans who worked alongside them.[164]

After several weeks of fighting in the Battle of Lashkargah, the city of Lashkargah, capital of Helmand Province, was captured by the Taliban on 13 August.[165] On the same day, the Taliban took control of Chaghcharan (also called Firozkoh), the capital city of Ghor Province.[166] Officials said the city fell without any fighting, becoming the fifteenth provincial capital to fall to the Taliban within a week.[167] Firozkoh has a population of nearly 132,000 people.[166] Later on 13 August, the Taliban captured Puli Alam, Qalat and Tarinkot, the provincial capitals of Logar Province, Zabul Province and Uruzgan Province respectively.[56][168]

On 14 August 2021, the Taliban captured Sharana, the capital city of the eastern Paktika province.[169][170] The Taliban also entered Mazar-i-Sharif, provincial capital of Balkh Province, in an attempt to capture it. President Ghani had previously visited the city to rally local warlords to fight the Taliban.[171]

Analysis

During the Afghan Civil War (1996–2001), resistance to the Taliban was strongest in northern Afghanistan, the base of the Northern Alliance. According to the Afghanistan Analysts Network, the Taliban's concentration of its forces in the north may be an attempt to forestall the creation of a second Northern Alliance after the withdrawal of U.S. forces.[172]

On 23 June, the United States Intelligence Community estimated that the Afghan government could fall within the next six months following the U.S. withdrawal.[173] On 10 August, U.S. officials revised the previous six month estimate, saying that it could happen much more quickly, and that some scenarios envisioned the fall of Kabul within 30 to 90 days.[174][59]

Since 2 July, U.S. withdrawal from the Bagram Airfield, U.S. airstrikes against the Taliban have been led from outside of Afghanistan, from the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and the U.S. Navy carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf. Requiring the warplanes to travel several hours to reach their targets. According to a U.S. defence official, the airstrikes since 2 July amounted to only "a handful" each day.[175][176]

On 8 August, the head of extremist monitoring group SITE, Rita Katz, said that the Taliban advance resembled the earlier days of the Syrian civil war amid Nusra Front's victories, "except now on a completely different scale, given the Taliban's horrifying momentum".[177]

Potential security vacuum

According to a U.S. defense official, the security vacuum left by the withdrawal of U.S. military forces could create an opening for Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups to reorganize. The official added that, while the U.S. would still maintain authority to strike Al Qaeda targets in Afghanistan, the lack of a robust U.S. presence on the ground would hamper the ability to identify potential targets. The CENTCOM commander General McKenzie said that he has not seen anything that would make him believe the Taliban would stop Al Qaeda from using Afghanistan to strengthen and rebuild.[178]

British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said that the vacuum could give terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda a safe haven.[179]

Reactions

Domestic

  • Afghanistan: The Afghan government has vowed to retake all districts seized by the Taliban.[180] Afghan politician and former mujahid Ismail Khan declared the formation of People's Resistance Movement of Western Afghanistan to fight the Taliban in Herat Province.[181] After the fall of Herat on 12 August, Khan was detained by the Taliban.[182] On 2 August 2021, President Ghani blamed the advance of the Taliban on the sudden withdrawal of U.S. troops and said the former had not cut ties with terrorist organizations and had escalated attacks against women, which the Taliban denied.[183] State-run newspaper The Kabul Times reported that on 9 August, #SanctionPakistan became one of the top Twitter trends in Afghanistan and worldwide, with Afghans holding Pakistan responsible for its support of the Taliban.[184]
  • Taliban: On 9 July, Taliban negotiator Shahabuddin Delawar said in Moscow that the group "was in control of 85% of the territory of Afghanistan", and added that it "was not part of the agreement" with the U.S. not to attack Afghan administrative centers.[180]

International

U.S. President Joe Biden meeting with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Chairman Abdullah Abdullah, 25 June 2021
  •  China: Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi criticized the speed and timing of withdrawal of the American-led NATO forces and urged them to withdraw in a "responsible and orderly manner".[185]
  •  Germany: Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said that Germany would cut off financial aid in case the Taliban imposes Sharia law if they take power in the country.[186]
  •  India: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said that India would consult all important parts in the conflict, including China, and that India was pushing for "conciliation in Afghanistan."[187]
  •  Indonesia: Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged all Indonesian nationals to leave Afghanistan.[188] Commission I of the Indonesian parliament also urged the government to be active on mediating both sides of the conflict as a Muslim-majority nation.[189]
  •  Iran: Influential Shia cleric, lawmaker, and politician Mojtaba Zonnour said that the Taliban is "an undeniable part of the reality in Afghanistan", and that it should not be equated to Islamist terrorist groups such as ISIL or al-Qaeda.[190] Grand Ayatollah Lotfollah Safi Golpaygani called trusting Taliban an irreparable error.[191]
  •  Kazakhstan: Kazakh representatives participated in a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit along with Russian and Chinese authorities to discuss a possible influx of Afghan refugees.[192]
  •  Kyrgyzstan: Representatives from the country participated in a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit along with Russian and Chinese authorities to discuss a possible influx of Afghan refugees.[192]
  •  Pakistan: Keeping in view the advancements of Taliban, DG ISPR issued a statement that "Pakistan should be seen as facilitator, not guarantor in Afghan peace process."[193]
  •  Russia: Russian authorities said they were working with the Tajik government to protect it from any foreign threat under the Collective Security Treaty Organization.[194]
    Russian special representative on Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, said that the Afghan government only paid lip service to the idea of talks and they were not doing enough to make them happen. He also said that Russia and other regional powers favoured a transitional government in Afghanistan.[195] Taliban representatives visited Moscow in July.[196] Russia's Foreign Ministry called the Taliban "of sound mind".[197]
  •  Tajikistan: President Emomali Rahmon ordered 20,000 reserve servicemen of the country's Ground Forces to be sent to the Afghan–Tajik border.[198]
  •  Turkey: The country offered to order its troops to protect Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul.[199]
  •  Turkmenistan: Turkmen military forces were assigned to the Afghan–Turkmen border due to security concerns.[200]
  •  United Kingdom: UK defence minister, Ben Wallace, said that the UK will be ready to work with the Taliban should they come into power provided that they adhere to certain international norms. However, Wallace warned that the UK will review any relationship if Taliban were found violating human rights in Afghanistan.[201] In an unusual criticism of his country's American allies, U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace referred to the Doha agreement as "a rotten deal" that "effectively told a Taliban that wasn’t winning that they were winning... We will all, in the international community, probably pay the consequences of that."[202]
  •  United States: President Joe Biden defended the withdrawal of U.S. troops, saying that the country had not gone to Afghanistan to "nation build."[203] Biden added that he would not "send another generation of Americans to fight there" and pointed to other failed attempts at unifying Afghanistan in the past. He also assured that the safety of the U.S. was not at risk, regardless of the outcome of the infighting in Afghanistan.[204][205] On 10 August, Pentagon press secretary, John Kirby, told reporters that US was confident that airstrikes were having an effect on the Taliban, but that the American air power alone would not be enough to halt the insurgent offensive.[176]
  •  Uzbekistan: The government raised concerns of a possible migratory crisis due to the infighting in Afghanistan and reported that U.S. authorities had contacted Uzbek officials to confirm if Uzbekistan could safeguard Afghans who collaborated with the U.S., fleeing from the country. In response, the Uzbek government erected a tent city for migrants in the city of Termez.[206]

Supranational

A joint statement released by twelve nations, including China, India, the US with the UN and EU said that no Afghan government would be recognized if it was established through force.[207]

See also

References

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