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2012 Atlantic hurricane season

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2012 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedMay 19, 2012
Last system dissipatedSeason currently active
Strongest storm
NameGordon
 • Maximum winds105 mph (165 km/h)
 • Lowest pressure969 mbar (hPa; 28.61 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions8
Total storms8
Hurricanes3
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)		0
Total fatalities20 direct, 4 indirect, 2 missing
Total damage> $59.5 million (2012 USD)
Related article
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2010, 2011, 2012, Post-2012

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially began on June 1, 2012, and ends on November 30, 2012. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic basin.[1]

The season experienced an early burst of activity followed by an extended period of silence. Tropical Storm Alberto and Tropical Storm Beryl both developed several days before the official start of the season, an occurrence not seen since the 1908 Atlantic hurricane season.[2] When Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, it was the first time ever that four storms formed before July since record keeping began in 1851. Despite the early start, no further storms formed through all of July. This streak ended in early August with the formation of Hurricane Ernesto and Tropical Storm Florence.[3]

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2012 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1950–2000)[4] 9.6 5.9 2.3
Record high activity 28 15 8
Record low activity 4 2 0†
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
TSR December 7, 2011[5] 14 7 3
WSI December 21, 2011[6] 12 7 3
CSU April 4, 2012[7] 10 4 2
TSR April 12, 2012[8] 13 6 3
TWC April 24, 2012[9] 11 6 2
TSR May 23, 2012[10] 13 6 3
UKMO May 24, 2012[11] 10* N/A N/A
NOAA May 24, 2012[12] 9-15 4-8 1-3
FSU COAPS May 30, 2012[13] 13 7 N/A
CSU June 1, 2012[14] 13 5 2
TSR June 6, 2012[15] 14 6 3
NOAA August 9, 2012[16] 12-17 5-8 2-3
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
8 3 0
* June–November only.
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters. CSU's December 2011 discussion was notable in that the forecasting team announced it would no longer attempt quantitative forecasting nearly six months out, noting "...forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill." They will, however, release a quantitative forecast for 2012 in April.[17]

Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1981 to 2010) as 12.1 tropical storms, 6.4 hurricanes, 2.7 major hurricanes (storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and ACE Index 96.1.[4] NOAA defines a season as above-normal, near-normal or below-normal by a combination of the number of named storms, the number reaching hurricane strength, the number reaching major hurricane strength and ACE Index.[18]

Pre-season forecasts

On December 7, 2011, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast predicting an above-average hurricane season. In its report, TSR noted that tropical cyclone activity could be about 49% above the 1950–2010 average, with 14.1 (±4.2) tropical storms, 6.7 (±3.0) hurricanes, and 3.3 (±1.6) major hurricanes anticipated, and a cumulative ACE index of 117 (±58).[5] Later that month on December 21, Weather Services International (WSI) issued an extended-range forecast predicting a near average hurricane season. In its forecast, WSI noted that a cooler North Atlantic Oscillation not seen in a decade, combined with weakening La Niña, would result in a near-average season with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. They also predicted a near-average probability of a hurricane landfall on the United States coastline, with a slightly elevated chance on the Gulf Coast and a slightly reduced chance along the East Coast.[6] On April 4, 2012, Colorado State University (CSU) issued their updated forecast for the season, calling for a below-normal season due to an increased chance for the development of an El Niño during the season.[7] On April 12, 2012, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued their update forecast for the season, slightly revising down their predictions as well.[8]

On May 24, 2012, NOAA released their forecast for the season, predicting a near-normal season (nine to fifteen named storms, 4-8 hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). NOAA based its forecast on higher wind shear, cooler temperatures in the Main Development Region of the Eastern Atlantic, and the continuance of the "high activity" era (i.e. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation warm phase) which began in 1995. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, added the main uncertainty in the outlook was how much below or above the 2012 season would be, and whether the high end of the predicted range is reached dependent on whether El Niño develops or stays in its current Neutral phase.[12] That same day, the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) issued a forecast of a below-average season. They predicted 10 named storms with a 70% chance that the number would be between 7 and 13. However, they do not issue forecasts on the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. They also predicted an ACE index of 90 with a 70% chance that the index would be in the range 28 to 152.[11] On May 30, 2012, the Florida State University for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU COAPS) issued its annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast. The organization predicted 13 named storms, including 7 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 122.[13]

Mid-season outlooks

On June 1, 2012, Klotzbach's team issued their first updated forecast for the 2012 season, predicting 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The university said there were large amounts of uncertainty concerning the phase of the ENSO as well as in Atlantic basin conditions. The organization also said the chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast was 48%, compared to an average of 52% over the past 100 years. The chance of a major hurricane hitting the Florida peninsula and the U.S. East Coast is 28%, compared to an average of 31% over the past 100 years.[14] On June 6, Tropical Storm Risk issued their June update for Atlantic hurricane activity for the 2012 season, predicting 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 100. The agency noted that they anticipated the trade wind predictor to have a small suppressing effect on activity, and sea surface temperatures would provide a neutral effect. They continue with their forecast of a near-average chance of U.S. landfall activity using the 1950–2011 long term norm, but a slightly below-average chance of U.S. landfall activity using the recent 2002–2011 10-year norm.[15]

On August 9, 2012, NOAA revised its predictions saying more named storms are likely in this Atlantic hurricane season, as 3 tropical cyclones formed in the first week of August, even though a weak El Niño had formed. The agency now predicts between 12 and 17 named storms from the period that started on June 1 and will end on November 30. NOAA's original May prediction was between nine and 15 named storms.[16]

Storms

Tropical Storm Alberto

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 19 – May 22
Peak intensity60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min);
995 mbar (hPa)

During the early morning hours of May 19, a non-tropical area of low pressure became stationary just offshore of South Carolina while producing organized shower and thunderstorm activity.[19] It quickly gained tropical characteristics over the warm sea surface temperatures of the Gulf Stream, and by 2100 UTC that afternoon, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Alberto, the first named storm to form during May in the Atlantic basin since Arthur in 2008, and the earliest tropical storm since Ana in April 2003.[20] Combined with Aletta's preseason development in the Eastern Pacific, this became the first occurrence where tropical cyclones reached tropical storm status in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins (east of the 140°W) before the official start date of their respective hurricane seasons.[21]

At 2250 UTC on May 19, a ship near Alberto reported winds of 60 mph (95 km/h), indicating the storm was stronger than previously assessed.[22] Little strengthening occurred over the next few hours, and in fact, slight weakening occurred that night as southeasterly shear and dry air entrainment began to impact the system, leaving the center exposed to the east of the circulation.[23][24] After remaining a minimal tropical storm for about 24 hours, the storm weakened to a tropical depression early on May 22 as it moved northeastward out to sea.[25] Late on May 22, the NHC discontinued advisories on Alberto after the system failed to maintain convection and dissipated; at this time the cyclone was located roughly 170 miles (270 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.[26] While the storm was active, Alberto produced 3 to 5 ft (0.91 to 1.52 m) waves, prompting several ocean rescues.[27]

Tropical Storm Beryl

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 26 – May 30
Peak intensity70 mph (110 km/h) (1-min);
992 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Tropical Storm Beryl (2012)

On May 23, an elongated low pressure area developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, with disorganized thunderstorms, and began moving northeastwards.[28] The low became better-defined over the Florida Keys,[29] and the cloud pattern organized.[30] After continuing to the northeast, the system developed a well-defined circulation with associated convection, located beneath an upper-level low. Based on the observations, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Subtropical Storm Beryl at 0300 UTC on May 26 when the system was located about 305 mi (490 km) east of Charleston, South Carolina.[31]

Little change in strength occurred until May 27, when Beryl transitioned into a fully tropical storm and reached its peak intensity, with winds of 70 mph (110 km/h).[32] After making landfall in Jacksonville Beach, Florida, Beryl weakened to a tropical depression as it tracked over land.[33] The storm then slowly turned to the northeast,[34] tracking over Georgia and South Carolina before becoming post-tropical on May 30.[35] Beryl would soon become an extratropical cyclone, as it accelerated to the northeast.[35] Beryl's landfall in Jacksonville Beach, Florida, was the strongest landfall in the United States for any pre-season Atlantic tropical cyclone on record.[2]

Hurricane Chris

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 19 – June 22
Peak intensity75 mph (120 km/h) (1-min);
987 mbar (hPa)

On June 17, a low pressure area developed from a stalled out frontal boundary near Bermuda.[36] Atop warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear, the low pressure gradually acquired tropical characteristics the following day,[37] and during the afternoon hours of June 19, after sustaining deep thunderstorm activity for a sufficient amount of time, the National Hurricane Center began writing advisories on Tropical Storm Chris. Tropical Storm Chris also was the third earliest third tropical cyclone formation for any season, behind storms in 1887 and 1959.[38] Despite being at a high latitude over cooler water (22°C / 71.6°F), it strengthened into the first hurricane of the season on June 21.[39] After encountering cooler waters, it weakened back to a tropical storm just six hours later.[40] Early on June 22 Chris began transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone as it interacted with a larger extratropical low to its south.[41] The final advisory on Chris was issued at on June 22 after completing its post-tropical transition, as it was absorbed by a larger non-tropical low.[42]

Tropical Storm Debby

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 23 – June 27
Peak intensity60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min);
990 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Tropical Storm Debby (2012)

A tropical disturbance developed into Tropical Storm Debby on the afternoon of June 23 in the Gulf of Mexico, becoming the earliest fourth storm on record in the Atlantic basin; this beat the previous record set by 2005's Hurricane Dennis, which formed on July 5.[43] Debby moved sluggishly throughout June 24 and into June 25, at times becoming stationary.[44] Debby did not intensify as much as originally anticipated due to high vertical wind shear caused by an upper-level low on its western side that limited convective activity atop the center of circulation.[45] At 2100 UTC June 26, Debby made landfall at Steinhatchee, Florida with winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). Shortly after landfall, Debby weakened to a tropical depression and lost most of its central convection.[46] Debby maintained tropical depression status while crossing Florida, while still being sheared from the southwest.[47] As it exited Florida during the afternoon hours of June 27, Debby was declared post-tropical due to lack of convection near its then elongated center, although it had regained tropical storm strength.[48] Over the next few days the remnants of Debby continued to move northeast until they dissipated on June 30.[49]

Hurricane Ernesto

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 1 – August 10
Peak intensity85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min);
980 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Ernesto (2012)

The NHC first monitored this tropical wave in its tropical weather outlook on July 30, noting that the system had an accompanying low pressure area and was showing signs of development.[50] After the circulation became better defined, the NHC initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Five at 2100 UTC on August 1.[51] At the time, the depression was located about 810 mi (1305 km) east of the Lesser Antilles, moving west-northwestward due to an anticyclone to its north.[51] In the 12 hours after its formation, the system's convection became disorganized due to westerly wind shear, and the NHC remarked that the system had the potential for degeneration into a tropical wave.[52] However, a Hurricane Hunters flight on August 2 observed tropical storm force winds, and accordingly the NHC upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Ernesto at 2100 UTC.[53] The next day, the storm moved over or very near Saint Lucia, and a station on the island reported a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h).[54]

By August 3, Ernesto entered the Caribbean Sea, with anticipation of further strengthening as a hurricane by the next several days.[55] Accordingly on August 4, the island of Jamaica issued a tropical storm warning on the island for possible threat of rains and winds over the next several days.[56] The next day the government of Honduras and the Cayman Islands issued a tropical storm watch for their respective territories.[57] As tropical storm Ernesto approached the western Caribbean on Monday morning August 6, moderate wind shear and a pocket of dry air worked its way into the system halting all intensification. Deep convection dissipated around the center of circulation and had an overall ragged appearance.[58] On August 7, Ernesto regained some deep convection around the center and had begun to reorganize and by that afternoon it became a hurricane.[59] At 0315 UTC August 8, Ernesto made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).[60] After weakening into a tropical storm and moving into the Bay Of Campeche, the storm made landfall again near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico at tropical storm status, killing 2 people because of heavy rains.[citation needed] The system moved inland across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec on the afternoon of August 9,[61] and into southern Mexico before dissipating as a tropical cyclone on August 10.[62] The remnants of Ernesto later contributed to the development of Tropical Storm Hector in the Eastern Pacific.[63][64]

Tropical Storm Florence

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 4 – August 6
Peak intensity60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min);
1000 mbar (hPa)

Late on August 1, a vigorous tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa. The wave developed a mid-level spin, and on August 3, the National Hurricane Center began to monitor the wave.[65] The wave slowly organized, and on August 4, the storm became Tropical Depression Six.[66] The next day it strengthened into Tropical Storm Florence.[67] Environmental conditions were favorable at first, which allowed Florence to strengthen into a moderate tropical storm.[68] As the system progressed west-northwest, it encountered drier and more stable air, which caused Florence to weaken.[69] These unfavorable conditions finally took its toll on Florence when it weakened early on August 6 into a tropical depression, with the system almost void of thunderstorms and a vortex spinning in its center.[70] Later that day on August 6, Florence weakened into a post-tropical cyclone and the final advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center.[71] After becoming post-tropical, the remains of Florence were still monitored by the National Hurricane Center as they continued to track west-northwestward while producing intermittent convection.[72]

Tropical Storm Helene

Main article: Tropical Storm Helene (2012)
Tropical Depression Helene
Current storm status
Tropical depression (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:10 a.m. CDT (1500 UTC) August 18
Location:22.0°N 98.0°W ± 20 nm
About 15 mi (25 km) SSW of Tampico, Mexico
Sustained winds:30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 40 knots (45 mph; 75 km/h)
Pressure:1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg)
Movement:NW at 8 kt (9 mph; 15 km/h)
See more detailed information.

The National Hurricane Center began tracking a rapidly-moving tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands with a surface low late evening August 6 with moderate and increasing convection.[73] The circulation began to organize on August 7, although thunderstorm activity was still disorganized.[74] The circulation and especially the thunderstorm activity continued to organize throughout the next day.[75] On August 9, the circulation became organized enough and the convection became deep enough for the National Hurricane Center to begin issuing advisories that evening.[76] Deep convection began increasing late August 10, although the circulation started to possibly elongate and become less well-defined.[77] A Hurricane Hunters flight on the morning of August 11 found that the tropical depression no longer had a closed circulation and had therefore degenerated into an open tropical wave.[78] The remnants were monitored for possible redevelopment over the following days; however, on August 14, the system moved inland over Central America and was no longer expected to regenerate.[79]

The remnant tropical wave produced heavy rainfall in Trinidad and Tobago, causing flooding and mudslides in Diego Martin on island of Trinidad. As a result, two fatalities occurred, while another two are listed as missing. Additionally, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar declared Diego Martin a disaster area; the Prime Minister also noted that two shelters were opened.[80] Widespread damage resulted from the flooding and mudslides, with losses exceeding TT$109 million (US$17 million).[81]

The remnants of the system began to move over the Bay of Campeche and started reorganizing. After a day or two of staying over water, the NHC sent a Hurricane Hunter aircraft into the remnants of the system to see if it regenerated. On August 17 at the 5PM NHC advisory, it was confirmed Tropical Depression Seven regenerated into Tropical Storm Helene.[82]

Current storm information

As of 10 a.m. CDT (1500 UTC) August 18, Tropical Depression Helene is located within 20 nautical miles of 22°N 98°W / 22°N 98°W / 22; -98 (Helene), about 15 mi (25 km) south-southwest of Tampico, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 InHg), and the system is moving northwest at 8 kt (9 mph, 15 km/h).

For latest official information see:

Hurricane Gordon

Hurricane Gordon
Current storm status
Category 2 hurricane (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:5 p.m. AST (2100 UTC) August 18
Location:34.1°N 36.4°W ± 20 nm
About 590 mi (950 km) WSW of The Azores
Sustained winds:90 knots (105 mph; 165 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 110 knots (125 mph; 205 km/h)
Pressure:969 mbar (hPa; 28.61 inHg)
Movement:E at 18 kt (21 mph; 33 km/h)
See more detailed information.

A tropical wave exited the coast of western Africa, initially with a 50% chance of tropical cyclone development, as predicted by NHC forecasters.[83] After passing over Cape Verde, it traveled in a general west-northwest direction, over colder waters, during which its development had been impeded and its shower and thunderstorm activity remained minimal.[84] As the low pressure system turned to a more northerly direction, it reentered warmer waters. The environment was favorable for cyclone genesis, and the system attained a better defined circulation.[85] On August 15, Tropical Depression Eight formed about 630 miles (about 1,000 kilometers) east-southeast of Bermuda,[86] and strengthened to Tropical Storm Gordon in about 12 hours.[87]

Gordon turned to the east and was expected to undergo extratropical transition upon passing over the Azores, where vertical shear is expected to increase.[88] However, the wind shear remained relatively absent, and Gordon developed a more well-defined convection around its center; thus the system was upgraded to a hurricane on August 18.[89] Its eye becoming more visible, Gordon further intensified to a Category 2 hurricane in 12 hours; although it was not expected to strengthen any further, due to an expected interaction with a shortwave located between the Azores and mainland Portugal and increasingly cooler waters along the forecast track.[90] However, the system is still expected to bring hurricane conditions to the Central and Eastern Azores by Sunday night and Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible as soon as Sunday evening. [91]

Current storm information

As of 5 p.m. AST (2100 UTC) August 18, Hurricane Gordon is located within 20 nautical miles of 34°06′N 36°24′W / 34.1°N 36.4°W / 34.1; -36.4 (Gordon), about 590 mi (950 km) west-southwest of The Azores. Maximum sustained winds are 90 knots (105 mph, 165 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 969 mbar (hPa; 28.61 InHg), and the system is moving east at 18 kt (21 mph, 33 km/h).

Hurricane force winds extend up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Gordon, and tropical storm force winds up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center.

Watches and warnings

See also: Tropical cyclone warnings and watches

Template:HurricaneWarningsTable

For latest official information see:

Timeline of events

See also: Timeline of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season
Tropical Storm Helene (2012)Hurricane Ernesto (2012)Tropical Storm Debby (2012)Tropical Storm Beryl (2012)Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale


Storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2012. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2013. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2018 season. This is the same list used in the 2006 season.

  • Helene (active)
  • Isaac (unused)
  • Joyce (unused)
  • Kirk (unused)
  • Leslie (unused)
  • Michael (unused)
  • Nadine (unused)
  • Oscar (unused)
  • Patty (unused)
  • Rafael (unused)
  • Sandy (unused)
  • Tony (unused)
  • Valerie (unused)
  • William (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all of the storms that have formed in the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s)–denoted by bold location names – damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2012 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2012 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Alberto May 19 – May 22 Tropical storm 60 (95) 995 Southeastern United States None None
Beryl May 26 – May 30 Tropical storm 70 (110) 992 Cuba, The Bahamas, Southeastern United States Unknown 4 (2)
Chris June 19 – June 22 Category 1 hurricane 75 (120) 987 None None None
Debby June 23 – June 27  Tropical storm 60 (95) 990 Cuba, Southeastern United States, Bermuda >42.5 7 (2)
Ernesto August 1 – August 10 Category 1 hurricane 85 (140) 980 Windward Islands, Jamaica, Belize, Mexico, Honduras Unknown 7
Florence August 4 – August 6 Tropical storm 60 (95) 1000 None None None
Helene August 9 – Currently active Tropical storm 45 (75) 1004 Windward Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico >17 2
Gordon August 15 – Currently active Category 2 hurricane 105 (165) 969 Azores (Portugal) None None
Season aggregates
8 systems May 19 - Currently active   105 (165) 969 >59.5 million 20 (4)  

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 7.71 Ernesto 5 1.44 Florence
2 3.98 Gordon 6 1.38 Alberto
3 2.72 Chris 7 0.865 Beryl
4 2.44 Debby 8 0.245 Helene
Total: 20.8

The table on the right shows the ACE for each storm in the season. Broadly speaking, the ACE is a measure of the power of a hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is calculated for only full advisories on specifically tropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h), or tropical storm strength. Accordingly, tropical depressions are not included here. The ACE also does not include advisories where a storm is declared to be subtropical, so ACE is not shown when Tropical Storm Beryl was subtropical, for example. Later, the NHC reexamines the data, and produces a final report on each storm, which can lead to the ACE for a storm being revised either upward or downward. Until the final reports are issued, ACEs are, therefore, provisional.

See also

References

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  2. ^ a b Robbie Berg (June 1, 2012). "Tropical Weather Outlook" (TXT). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 2, 2012.
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  11. ^ a b "Met Office predicts quieter tropical storm season". May 24, 2012. Retrieved May 24, 2012.
  12. ^ a b "NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May 24, 2012. Retrieved May 29, 2012.
  13. ^ a b "2012 FSU COAPS Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast". Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), Florida State University. May 30, 2012. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
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  16. ^ a b NOAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño (Report). NOAA. August 9, 2012. Retrieved August 9, 2012.
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  21. ^ Dominic Brown (May 20, 2012). "First Tropical Storm of Season Forms, Could Impact Eastern [[North Carolina]]". WCTI-TV. Retrieved May 20, 2012. {{cite web}}: URL–wikilink conflict (help)
  22. ^ Eric Blake; James Franklin (May 19, 2012). "Tropical Storm Alberto Tropical Cyclone Update". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  23. ^ Eric Blake; James Franklin (May 20, 2012). "Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 2". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  24. ^ David Cangialosi; Daniel Brown (May 20, 2012). "Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 3". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  25. ^ Stacy Stewart (May 22, 2012). "Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 22, 2012.
  26. ^ Richard Pasch (May 22, 2012). "Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 12". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 22, 2012.
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  28. ^ Robbie Berg; Richard Pasch (May 23, 2012). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 23, 2012.
  29. ^ Michael Brennan; James Franklin (May 24, 2012). "Special Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 25, 2012.
  30. ^ Todd Kimberlain; Stacy Stewart (May 24, 2012). "Special Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 25, 2012.
  31. ^ Todd Kimberlain (May 26, 2012). "Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 26, 2012.
  32. ^ Todd Kimberlain, Lixion Avila and. "Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion #9". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  33. ^ Avila, Lixion; Cangialosi, John (May 28, 2012). Tropical Depression Beryl Discussion Number 11 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
  34. ^ Franklin, James (May 29, 2012). "Tropical Depression Beryl Discussion Number 14". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
  35. ^ a b John Cangialosi, James Franklin /. "Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion #20". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
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  37. ^ Landsea, Christopher (June 18, 2012). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
  38. ^ Daniel Brown (June 19, 2012). "Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 19, 2012.
  39. ^ Roberts, Dave (June 21, 2012). Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 9 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
  40. ^ Roberts, Dave (June 21, 2012). Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 9 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
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  42. ^ Berg, Robbie. "Chris Discussion #12". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  43. ^ Todd Kimberlain (June 27, 2012). "Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Discussion Number 18". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 27, 2012.
  44. ^ Stewart, Stacy. "Debby Discussion #2". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  45. ^ Stewart, Stacy. "Debby Discussion #11". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  46. ^ Beven, Jack. "Debby Discussion #15". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  47. ^ Kimberlain, Todd. "Debby Discussion #17". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2012.
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  49. ^ "Tropical Storm Debby ATCF File". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 9, 2012.
  50. ^ Stewart, Stacy. "2:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  51. ^ a b Eric Blake, Richard Pasch and. "Ernesto Discussion #1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
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  55. ^ Beven, Jack. "Ernesto Discussion #10". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
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  57. ^ Brennan, Michael. "Ernesto Public Advisory #15". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  58. ^ Dave Roberts, Richard Pasch and. "Ernesto Discussion #16". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  59. ^ Pasch, Eric. "Ernesto Discussion #20". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  60. ^ "Ernesto Discussion #20". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 8, 2012.
  61. ^ Avila, Lixion (August 9, 2012). Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 34 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
  62. ^ Avila, Lixion (August 10, 2012). Tropical Depression Ernesto Advisory Number 37 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
  63. ^ Lixion A. Avila (August 11, 2012). "Tropical Depression Eight-E Special Discussion Number One". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 15, 2012.
  64. ^ Eric S. Blake (August 11, 2012). "Tropical Storm Hector Public Advisory Three". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 15, 2012.
  65. ^ Kimberlain, Todd. "200 AM EDT 8-3-12 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  66. ^ Landsea, Christopher. "Florence Discussion #1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  67. ^ Blake, Eric. "Florence Discussion #3". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  68. ^ Kimberlain, Todd. "Tropical Storm Florence Discussion 5". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  69. ^ Kimberlain, Todd. "Florence Discussion #9". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  70. ^ Cangialosi, John. "Tropical Depression Florence Discussion 10". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  71. ^ Roberts, Dave. "US Navy Hurricane Specialist". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 12-8-6. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help)
  72. ^ Beven, Jack. "Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 8AM EDT 8-7-12". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2012.
  73. ^ Stewart, Stacy (August 6, 2012). Tropical Weather Outlook (TXT) (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 11, 2012.
  74. ^ Beven, Jack (August 7, 2012). Tropical Weather Outlook (TXT) (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 11, 2012.
  75. ^ Stewart, Stacy (August 8, 2012). Tropical Weather Outlook (TXT) (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 11, 2012.
  76. ^ Pasch, Richard (August 9, 2012). Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 11, 2012.
  77. ^ Berg, Robbie; Brennan, Michael (August 10, 2012). Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 5 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 11, 2012.
  78. ^ Berg, Robbie; Avila, Lixion (August 11, 2012). Remnants of Seven Discussion Number 8 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 11, 2012. {{cite report}}: Check |authorlink= value (help)
  79. ^ Daniel Brown (August 14, 2012). "Tropical Weather Outlook for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 15, 2012.
  80. ^ "2 dead, 2 missing in Trinidad as tropical wave churns in eastern Caribbean". The Washington Post. Associated Press. August 11, 2012. Retrieved August 12, 2012.
  81. ^ Renuka Singh (August 14, 2012). "$109m And Rising". Trinidad Express Newspapers. Retrieved August 15, 2012.
  82. ^ Advisory 9
  83. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/atl/201208101453/index.php?basin=atl&current_issuance=201208101453
  84. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/atl/201208131135/index.php?basin=atl&current_issuance=201208131135
  85. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/atl/201208141759/index.php?basin=atl&current_issuance=201208141759
  86. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/atl/201208152050/index.php?basin=atl&current_issuance=201208152050
  87. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al08/al082012.public.003.shtml?
  88. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/180233.shtml?
  89. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/180905.shtml?
  90. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/182032.shtml?
  91. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/182032.shtml

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