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Talk:2012 Puerto Rican status referendum

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Old School WWC Fan (talk | contribs) at 01:22, 25 September 2012 (→Polls?). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

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Polls?

Any information on the current polling results from the referendum? Is the referendum expected to succeed? Anything that talks about its current status in public opinion would be a helpful addition to the article. Zaldax (talk) 17:03, 27 July 2012 (UTC)[reply]

I was thinking the same thing. Anything out there? --Lionheart Omega (talk) 17:45, 14 August 2012 (UTC)[reply]
I was curious about it as well, as a newspaper article gave me the impression a vote was held on August 12th. However, Political status of Puerto Rico#2012 plebiscite states that the plan was to have two polls, one about whether or not to change the status (August 2012), and one for what the now status should be (November 2012), but that they are merged into a single referendum to be held in November 2012.
Buut, you guys probably mean gallup polls when I think about it, and yeah, that would be interesting to see. Jon Harald Søby (talk) 00:09, 15 August 2012 (UTC)[reply]


There are two newspapers publishing polls, but both only do so in their printed version so that people buy it. The first to publish them was El Nuevo Dia, which is genrally considered to lean towards the PPD:

  • The first poll (march) had: Independence 3%, ELA Soberano (what has been described as "free association with double citizenship" by PPD members) 42%, Statehood 32% 
  • The second (may) had: Independence 5%, ELA Soberano 45%, Statehood 36% 
  • The third (august) had: Independence 5%, ELA Soberano 43%, Statehood 37%
  • The remaining percent is either not voting or unsure which option they prefer.

The other newspaper is El Vocero, which is generally regarded to lean towards the PNP:

  • They published the first sometime around March, which gave a 4% advantage to Statehood over the ELA Soberano, but I can't say what the percents were because they changed servers and all of the analisis were wiped.
  • The second had a tie between Statehood and ELA Soberano at 39%.
    • In neither case El Vocero discussed independence in its analisis.

Old School WWC Fan (talk) —Preceding undated comment added 05:19, 1 September 2012 (UTC)[reply]

So, in other words, this is going to be a horse race. Cause, what I get out of this is the fact Puerto Rico is anywhere near decided on way or another. Seriously, what are the chances of a definitive result? --Lionheart Omega (talk) 19:02, 6 September 2012 (UTC)[reply]
In this referendum? I would say 10% or less, none of the options is likely to get anything over 52-53%. The only logical chance for a "definitive" result would be that all of the center-left wing parties formed some sort of alliance to support free association and make it something along the lines of "Statehood: Yes or No", given that the PNP is regarded as a common enemy. Old School WWC Fan (talk) 01:22, 25 September 2012 (UTC)[reply]

Electoral method?

It's not entirely clear from the article how the two-stage, single-election plebiscite will work. If the "change the status quo" option fails to get a majority, is there an instant runoff/AV/STV resolution of the second question? First past the post? Including or excluding status quo from the second round? This sounds like it could produce some very odd results if preferences between several options are roughly evenly split, depending on the exact procedure used. 84.203.33.210 (talk) 10:02, 27 August 2012 (UTC)[reply]

Both are tallied separately, the first supposed to judge if PR will change its territorrial status in January 2013, the second, which they prefer among the non-territorial options.
  • The PNP has said that if they territory wins, they will continue to make these polls every two years regardless of who wins in the United States.
  • The PPD has claimed that regardless if the territory wins or no, they are waiting one year (if Obama is reelected) for the White House to act as recommended in the task force's paper and will otherwise organize a constituent assembly in 2014. The MUS and PIP also support a constituent assembly.
  • No idea what will happen if the PPD and Republican parties win...

Old School WWC Fan (talk) —Preceding undated comment added 05:32, 1 September 2012 (UTC)[reply]

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