2014 Crimean crisis

2014 Crimean crisis
Part of the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution
Location of Crimea and Ukraine within Europe (dark grey)
Crimea (including Sevastopol)   Rest of Ukraine
Date	23 February 2014–present (10 years, 10 months and 5 days)
Location	Crimea, Ukraine
Caused by	Opposition to the Euromaidan movement Opposition to the Yatsenyuk Government Repeal of language law that protected minority languages
Methods	Protests Unmarked Russian military operations in Crimea Concentration of Russian Military Forces General mobilization in Ukraine
Status	Ongoing Russian military intervention. Gunmen seize government buildings and raise the flag of Russia. Gunmen (claimed by Ukrainian government to be Russian soldiers) seized main airports. The Supreme Council of Crimea is dissolved and a new Prime Minister of Crimea is installed with armed force present in the building. New Members of the Supreme Council of Crimea vote to hold a self-sovereignty referendum on 30 March. Viktor Yanukovych appears in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, denies legitimacy of the post-revolution government in Kiev, and reasserts claim to the Ukrainian presidency. Pro-Russian protests spread to Eastern and Southern Ukraine. No central government control over Crimea Ukraine's Navy commander defects, declares support for the new Crimean government. Russia denounces the Yatsenyuk Government as illegitimate. Crimean government claims that representatives of the localities of Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odessa in coastal Ukraine outside of Crimea have declared their desire to become part of Crimea if its powers are increased by the referendum planned for 30 March.
Parties
Crimea Sevastopol Pro-Russian militants Supportive organizations in Crimea Russian Unity party Night Wolves Former members of the dissolved Berkut special police unit Kuban Cossacks Russia Black Sea Fleet Airborne Troops Military Intelligence Ukraine Yatsenyuk Government Ukrainian Navy - status unclear Parliamentary parties Batkivshchyna Svoboda UDAR Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People
Lead figures
Sergey Aksyonov Rustam Temirgaliev Volodymyr Konstantinov Denis Berezovsky Aleksei Chalyi Vladimir Putin Sergey Shoygu Aleksandr Vitko Oleksandr Turchynov Arseniy Yatsenyuk Arsen Avakov Valentyn Nalyvaichenko Serhiy Kunitsyn Serhiy Hayduk Mustafa Dzhemilev Refat Chubarov
Number
Protesters 20,000 (Sevastopol) 5,000 (Simferopol) Volunteer units 5,000 (Sevastopol) 1,700 (Simferopol) Russian Infantry 6,000–28,000 Armed insurgents 300 Protesters 4,000–10,000 (Simferopol) Ukrainian military forces About 5,000 troops Currently recruiting and mobilizing reserves
Casualties and losses
Several serious injuries About 100 to 200 Ukrainian marines currently detained by Russian forces against their will, as well as reportedly almost all of the Ukrainian Navy Fleet
2–3 civilians dead
143,000 refugees (Russian estimate), 20,000 refugeees (Polish estimate)

The 2014 Crimean crisis or occupation of the Crimea is a regional and international diplomatic crisis unfolding in the region of Crimea, Ukraine. It began in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, in which the government of President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted by a popular revolt in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev.

Some ethnic Russian groups staged protests, opposing the events in Kiev and wanting closer ties or integration with Russia, in addition to expanded autonomy or possible independence for Crimea. Other groups, predominantly consisting of Crimean Tatars and ethnic Ukrainians, demonstrated support for the revolution. In face of this unrest Viktor Yanukovych covertly called for Russian armed forces to intervene and secure 'law and order' in Ukraine, specifically Crimea.

On February 26, Russia started concentrating a military force of 150,000 along the Ukrainian border in a military exercise.

On February 27, armed soldiers without insignia and wearing masks seized a number of important buildings in Crimea, including the parliament building and two airports. They disabled almost all telecommunication and Internet services between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine. Under siege and with assailants present inside the buiding, the Supreme Council of Crimea dismissed the autonomous republic's government and replaced the chairman of the Council of Ministers of Crimea, Anatolii Mohyliov, with Sergey Aksyonov. The Russian troops stationed in Crimea on bilateral agreement were reinforced and two vessels of the Russian Baltic Fleet breached Ukrainian waters, violating the agreement.

Kiev accused Russia of intervening in Ukraine's internal affairs, which Russia officially denied.

On March 1, the Russian parliament granted President Vladimir Putin the authority to use military force in Ukraine, following a plea for help from the newly installed Crimea's pro-Moscow leader, Sergey Aksyonov. The acting president of Ukraine, Oleksandr Turchynov, decreed the appointment of Aksyonov as Prime Minister of Crimea unconstitutional. Pro-government sources claimed that there may have been falsification during the vote to hold a 2014 sovereignty referendum and change of government in Crimea. The General Prosecutor office noted that any decisions of the referendum contradict the Constitution of Ukraine and Crimea, which requires a national plebiscite. Crimean Tatar leaders have said they will not take part in or recognize any separatist referendum.

On March 2, Ukraine declared full battle alert and general mobilization across the country. Crimean deputy prime minister, Rustam Temirgaliev, reported that all armed forces on the Crimea territory had either been disarmed or switched sides. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that these reports were untrue. Soon after, the chief of the Ukrainian Navy, Denis Berezovsky announced in a televised statement that he refused to follow orders from the self-declared government in Kiev, and declared loyalty to Crimean authorities and people. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev denounced the Yatsenyuk Government as illegitimate.

On March 3, forces without insignia, believed to be Russian Army troops took over Port Krym in Kerch, which serves a ferry to Port Kavkaz in Russia. The Russian navy started a military exercise in Kaliningrad Oblast, close to the borders of Lithuania and Poland. The Lithuanian and Polish presidents called for NATO treaty Article 4 consultations.

According to the Vice-Speaker of the Supreme Council of Crimea, Sergey Tsekov, representatives of the localities of Kherson - capital of the Kherson Oblast, Mykolaiv - capital of the Mykolaiv Oblast, and Odessa - capital of the Odessa Oblast, in coastal Ukraine outside of Crimea have declared their desire to become part of Crimea if its powers are increased by the referendum planned for 30 March.

North Atlantic Council and the European Union will hold an emergency summit on the matter. The United States condemned Russia for breaking international law and violating Ukrainian sovereignty.

Background

Crimean Peninsula, with the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (in yellow)

See also: History of Crimea, Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, and 2010 Kharkiv Pact

Crimea was conquered by the Russian Empire in 1783, but ethnic Russian colonists did not become the largest population group in Crimea until the 20th century. Crimea had autonomy within the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic as the Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic from 1921 until 1945, when Joseph Stalin deported the Crimean Tatar majority and abolished Crimean autonomy. In 1954, the Soviet leadership under Khrushchev transferred the Crimean Oblast from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR, in a "symbolic gesture" that seemed insignificant at the time, since both republics were a part of the Soviet Union. Crimea's pre-1945 autonomy was re-established with the Crimean sovereignty referendum in 1991, the final year of the Soviet Union's existence.

The Autonomous Republic of Crimea has been part of an independent Ukraine since 1991, when the former constituent Republics of the Soviet Union became independent states. In 1992, the Crimean Parliament voted to hold a referendum to declare independence, while the Russian Parliament voted to void the cession of Crimea to Ukraine. In 1994, Russian nationalist Yuri Meshkov won the 1994 Crimean presidential election and organized a referendum on Crimea's status. Later in that same year, Crimea's legal status as part of Ukraine was recognized by Russia, which pledged to uphold the territorial integrity of Ukraine in the Budapest memorandum signed in 1994. This treaty was also signed by the United States, United Kingdom, and France. Ukraine revoked the Crimean constitution and abolished the office of Crimean President in 1995. Crimea would gain a new constitution in 1998 that granted the Crimean parliament lesser powers than the previous constitution, including no legislative initiative. Crimean officials would later seek to restore the powers of the previous constitution. Further developments in Crimea and the future of Russian naval bases there have been a point of contention in Russian-Ukrainian relations. The 2010 Kharkiv Pact extended the Russian lease of the base to 2042 in exchange for discounts on Russian natural gas, but was denounced by opposition groups in Ukraine.

According to the 2001 census, ethnic Russians make up about 58% of the two million residents of Crimea. In Sevastopol, which houses a base for the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet, ethnic Russians make up 70% of the city's population of 340,000. Ukrainians make up 24% of the Crimean population, while 12% are Crimean Tatars. Crimean Tatars were not permitted to return to Crimea, and became an international cause celebre, until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The continuing migration of Crimean Tatars to the region since the Soviet collapse is causing persistent tensions with Russians over land rights.

In the 2010 local parliamentary elections, the Party of Regions received 357,030 votes, while the second-placed Ukrainian Communist Party received 54,172 votes. Both parties were targeted by protesters during the 2014 Ukrainian revolution.

According to the International Centre for Defense Studies, since the Orange Revolution in 2004, Russia has pressured Ukraine for its preferences to associate itself with the West. The information campaign in Crimea has become especially proficient and systematic, becoming particularly intense during the 2006–2008 Ukraine bid for NATO membership. When Ukraine reaches a milestone on the road towards European integration, Moscow always intensifies its information campaign. Russia opposes Ukrainian integration with the West for various reasons, including Russia's desire to include Ukraine in an Eurasian Union.

According to Taras Kuzio, during the Viktor Yushchenko presidency (2005–2010), Russia's relations with Ukraine deteriorated, prompting the Russian security service (FSB) and Russian military intelligence (GRU) to expand their covert support for pro-Russian forces in Southern Ukraine and Russian separatists in Crimea. Following the Orange Revolution and the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, American diplomatic cables leaked to the public noted that Russian military action against Ukraine was "no longer unthinkable."

Revolution in Kiev

Main articles: Euromaidan and 2014 Ukrainian revolution

Towards the end of 2013, anti-government Euromaidan protests began over the issue of the accession of Ukraine to the European Union, which then-President Viktor Yanukovich rejected. His rejection was perceived by the media as a step closer towards Russia. The protests escalated in early 2014 and eventually led to deaths of both protesters and government forces on February 20. The Ukrainian parliament then voted to impeach Yanukovich on February 21, during the 2014 Ukrainian revolution. Some residents of the eastern and southern parts of the country protested against the new establishment in Kiev. The Parliament of Crimea called for an extraordinary session on February 21. The leader of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People Refat Chubarov stated that he suspected that the session might ask for Russian military intervention.

On February 21, 2014, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) issued a statement which promised that "it will use severe measures to prevent any action taken against diminishing the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine." The same day the pro-Russian Party of Regions who held 80 of the 100 seats in the Crimean Parliament, did not discuss issues relating to the separation of Crimea from Ukraine and appeared to support the deal struck between President Yanukovych and the opposition to end the crises signed the same day.

On February 23, 2014, following the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, the law on languages of minorities, including Russian, was abolished, making Ukrainian the sole state language at all levels. The CSM reported: "The cancellation of this language law only served to infuriate Russian-speaking regions, who saw the move as more evidence that the antigovernment protests in Kiev that managed to topple Mr. Yanukovych's government were intent on pressing for a nationalistic agenda. It only deepened tensions in Crimea, for example, where the idea that the protesters on Maidan were radical fascists."

Timeline of the events

February 23–26

In Simferopol, on February 23, 2014 a pro-Euromaidan rally of between 5,000–15,000 was held in support of the new Ukrainian authorities. The protesters also demanded the resignation of the Crimean parliament; attendees waved Ukrainian, Tatar and European Union flags. Meanwhile in Sevastopol, thousands protested against the new authorities and voted to establish a parallel administration and civil defense squads created with the support of Russian Night Wolves bikers. Protesters waved Russian flags and chanted "Putin is our president" and claimed they would refuse to pay further taxes to the state. Russian military convoys were also alleged to be seen in the area. In Kerch, pro-Russian protesters attempted to remove the Ukrainian flag from atop city hall and replace it with the flag of Russia. Over 200 attended waving flags of Russia, orange-and-black St. George and the Russian Unity party. Mayor Oleh Osadchy attempted to disperse the crowd and police eventually arrived to keep the protesters at bay. Osadchy said: "This is the territory of Ukraine, Crimea. Here's a flag of Crimea" but was accused of treason and a fight ensued over the flagpole.

On February 24, the Prime Minister of Crimea Anatolii Mohyliov declared that the region would carry out all laws passed by the Ukrainian parliament. That same day, more protesters rallied outside the Sevastopol administration offices. Pro-Russian demonstrators accompanied by neo-Cossacks demanded the selection of a Russian citizen as mayor (which was refused by the city council) and planted Russian flags at city hall; they also handed out leaflets calling for volunteers to a militia and warning that the "Blue-Brown Europlague is knocking." On 25 February, several hundred pro-Russian protesters blocked the Crimean parliament demanding a referendum on Crimea's independence.

On February 24, Sevastopol chose Aleksei Chalyi, a Russian citizen, as mayor. This was controversial because Sevastopol has no mayor as the Chairman of the Sevastopol City State Administration who is appointed by the President of Ukraine by statute fulfils this role. A thousand protesters present chanted "a Russian mayor for a Russian city." Crowds gathered again outside Sevastopol's city hall again as rumours spread that security forces could arrest Aleksei Chalyi, but police chief Alexander Goncharov said that his officers would refuse to carry out "criminal orders" issued by the central government. Viktor Neganov, a Sevastopol-based adviser to the interior minister, condemned the events in the city as a coup. "Chalyi represents the interests of the Kremlin which likely gave its tacit approval." The Chairman of the Sevastopol City State Administration, appointed by the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Yatsuba, was booed and whistled on February 23, when he told a pro-Russian rally that Crimea was a part of Ukraine. He resigned the next day. In Simferopol, the Regional State Administration building was blockaded with hundreds of protesters, including neo-Cossacks, demanding a referendum of separation; the rally was organized by the Crimean Front.

On February 26, thousands of protesters clashed in Simferopol. Near the Supreme Council of Crimea building between 4,000 and 5,000 Crimean Tatars and supporters of the Euromaidan-Crimea movement faced 600–700 supporters of pro-Russian organisations and the Russian Unity Party. Chairman of the Supreme Council of Crimea Volodymyr Konstantinov said that the Crimean parliament will not discuss the issue of separation from Ukraine and that earlier reports that parliament would discuss the motion were provocations. During the clashes, one man died of a heart attack and a woman died from being trampled. Crimean Tatars created self-defense groups and called on activists to unite with Russian, Ukrainian and people of other nationalities to avoid provocations and to protect churches, mosques, synagogues and other important sites. By nightfall, the Crimean Tatars had left, while the pro-Russian rally had grown to 5,000 as protesters arrived from Sevastopol later in the day. The new Ukrainian establishment's acting Interior Minister Arsen Avakov tasked Crimean law enforcement agencies not to provoke conflicts and to do whatever necessary to prevent clashes with pro-Russian forces and added that "I think, that way – through a dialogue – we shall achieve much more than with standoffs " The new head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Valentyn Nalyvaichenko requested United Nations round-the-clock monitoring of the security situation on the peninsula.

Also on February 26, media claimed that Russian troops or (as they themselves claimed) local volunteers took control of the main route of access to Sevastopol. A military checkpoint, with military vehicles under a Russian flag, was set up on the main highway between the city and Simferopol. CNN described them as a "pro-Russian militia checkpoint".

February 27–28

See also: Crimean referendum, 2014

File:Crimean parliament in Simferopol.JPG

The Supreme Council of Crimea building in Simferopol

On February 27, at 4:20 local time, a group of sixty Russian-speaking gunmen seized Crimea's parliament building and Council of Ministers building. They are said to be professionals and heavily armed. Thirty broke into the building initially, with a bus carrying another thirty people and additional firearms arriving later. The gunmen were unmarked but raised Russian flags.

On February 27, 2014 the Ukrainian organization Right Sector officially announced that it does not intend to participate in any conflict on the territory of Crimea.

Under siege, the Supreme Council of Crimea (Crimea's parliament) held an emergency session to dismiss the Prime Minister of Crimea and approved a no-confidence vote for Anatolii Mohyliov to be replaced with Sergey Aksyonov of Crimea's Russian Unity party. They voted to hold a referendum on the status of Crimea on May 25, 2014.

Interfax-Ukraine reported "it is impossible to find out whether all the 64 members of the 100-member legislature who were registered as present at when the two decisions were voted on or whether someone else used the plastic voting cards of some of them" because due to the armed occupation of parliament it was unclear how many MPs were present. The head of parliament's information and analysis department, Olha Sulnikova, had phoned from inside the parliamentary building to journalists and had told them 61 of the registered 64 deputies had voted for the referendum resolution and 55 for the resolution to dismiss the government. They also installed a new Prime Minister. According to the Constitution of Ukraine, the Prime Minister of Crimea is appointed by the Supreme Council of Crimea in consultation with the President of Ukraine.

The chairman of the Supreme Council of Crimea, Volodymyr Konstantinov, as well as new PM Aksyonov, refused to recognize the dismissal of Viktor Yanukovych from presidential office, and view him as legitimate. Aksyonov added "we will follow his directions".

The new Prime Minister of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, warned "We must immediately declare that anyone who is on the streets with guns – these people are prosecuted by law".

In the early hours of February 28, a group of 50–119 armed men in military uniform without signs of identification seized Simferopol International Airport. Airport authorities later denied that it had been "captured" and said that it was still operating normally despite the continuing armed presence. Later in the day, Sevastopol International Airport was occupied in a similar manner as Simferopol's airport. According to the Minister of Internal Affairs, Arsen Avakov, soldiers without identification are Russian Black Sea Fleet troops. Later some Russian television channels announced that airports are guarded by the Crimean self-defense patrols. It was then claimed that militants in Simferopol airport are soldiers of the Russian MI whose plane was noticed at the Hvardiyske Airport (Hvardiiske) near Simferopol.

According to the official website of the Night Wolves bikers club, they are guarding the state administration in Sevastopol.

On February 28, 2014, a missile boat of the Russian Federation blocked the Balaklava Harbor, where ships of the Ukrainian Sea Guard are stationed. Eight Russian military helicopters were moved to Sevastopol from Anapa. On 28 February 2014, at the UN Security Council, it was announced that the helicopters were not transportation crafts, but rather an assault Mi-24. Serhiy Kunitsyn informed journalists that Crimea is to be visited by the Russian delegation of Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Konstantin Zatulin.

Serhiy Kunitsyn informed journalists that 13 Russian planes IL-76 with Russian Airborne Troops landed in the Hvardiyske military airport (Hvardiiske). Kunitsyn stated that each plane may hold about 150 people.

The Ukrainian parliamentarian, Petro Poroshenko, who arrived in Simferopol, was attacked by an angry mob, but managed to get away unharmed. Chairman of the Supreme Council of Crimea Volodymyr Konstantinov was booed by a gathered crowd of protesters who were yelling "Crimea – Russia".

On February 28, The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine acknowledged the threat of possible takeovers of military units in Crimea during the night on Saturday by radical forces. On February 28, facing possible Russian intervention, U.S. President Barack Obama stated that any military action would "Come at a cost," following his denunciation of Russian aggression in the region.

March 1 to Present

Main article: 2014 Russian military intervention in Ukraine

File:Selbstverteidigung.jpg

A Crimean self-defense militia stands guard with riot shields painted in the Crimean tricolor flag in Simferopol, 2 March

Unmarked soldiers in Simferopol, 2 March

On March 1, the new Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov appealed directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a statement calling for Russia to "provide assistance in ensuring peace and tranquility on the territory" of Crimea. Meanwhile, Aksyonov is taking control of "security [in Crimea] on a temporary basis", he said. All commanders are to obey his orders or "resign". Akysonov also announced that the date of the self-sovereignty referendum was moved up to 30 March.

Protests against the new authorities in Kiev and in support of Russians in Crimea occurred throughout Eastern and Southern Ukraine on March 1. Protesters in Donetsk reportedly raised the Russian tricolor over the Donetsk Oblast Regional Administration building, in addition to electing a new pro-Russian governor. Protesters in Mariupol also protested in front of regional offices, waving Russian flags. In Kharkiv, protesters seized the regional administration building, replacing a Ukrainian flag with a Russian one. A representative of the new government in Kiev attempted to talk with the protesters, but was attacked by the crowd. Between 5,000 to 20,000 participated in a pro-Russian demonstration in Odessa. Russian flags were reportedly raised in Melitopol and Yevpatoria.

On March 1, the interim president of Ukraine, Turchynov, signed a decree declaring the appointment of Sergei Aksyonov as the head of the government of Crimea to be unconstitutional.

Russian President Vladimir Putin formally asked the Federation Council for permission to "use the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the normalization of the socio-political situation in the that country." Hours later, the Federation Council voted unanimously to grant permission.

The City Council of Donetsk urged its regional parliament to announce a date for a referendum on "the future of the Donbass region."

The Consulate of the Russian Federation in Simferopol started to issue Russian passports to residents of Ukraine. Members of the former Ukrainian riot police, Berkut, were among the first in Crimea to be granted Russian citizenship.

The Ukrainian Navy was forced to leave its base in Sevastopol,, as was the Ukrainian Sea Guard. Some journalists later claimed that this was disinformation posted by RIA News.

Beginning March 1, Ukrainian journalists were prohibited from entering the Crimean region, reportedly on the orders of members of the Supreme Council.

Ukrainian media reported that decisions to replace the government and hold a referendum in Crimea were falsified.

According to Damon Wilson, vice president of the Atlantic Council, the United States Congress was "considering authorizing [a] defense arms package to Ukraine".

On March 2, a Ukrainian marine infantry detachment stationed around Feodosiya was surrounded by armed men demanding surrender by 9:00AM EET. In Sudak, radar station personnel were forced to give up their arms. The Ukrainian Navy building in Sevastopol was under siege and land-based assault by the Russian Army according to Ukrainska Pravda.

RIA Novosti reported that units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces assigned to Crimea were resigning on a "massive scale", as of March 2. According to Crimea's deputy prime minister, Rustam Temirgaliev, the Ukrainian armed forces have all but surrendered their military capabilities and that no active units remain in Crimea. Temirgaliev also promised the Crimean Tatars minority a place in the new Supreme Council, adding that funding for programs of resettlement and reintegration of those deported during the Stalin era will be "plentiful".

On March 2, Acting President Olexander Turchynov ordered all Ukrainian military reservists to be called up.

At a Ukrainian military base near the village of Perevalne, there is an ongoing standoff between a handful of Ukrainian marines loyal to Kiev and the surrounding Russian/Crimean forces.

The newly-appointed chief of the Ukrainian Navy, Denis Berezovsky, in televised statement announced that he refuses to follow orders from the self-declared government in Kiev and declared loyalty to Crimean authorities and people. He was replaced by Serhiy Hayduk.

The government of Crimea announced the formation of its own Defence Ministry.

Ukrainian oligarchs, including Igor Kolomoisky and Serhiy Taruta (partner of Rinat Akhmetov), throw weight behind revolutionary government in Kiev; get appointments as governors of eastern provinces.

The head of the Security Service of Crimea Petyor Zima, Chief of Department of Internal Affairs in the Crimea Sergey Abisov, the head of Service for Emergency Situations Sergei Shakhov and acting Chief of the Border Guards of Crimea Victor Melnichenko each took an oath of allegiance to the people of the so-called "Putin-backed" Crimea. The ceremony took place in the Council of Ministers chamber in the presence of regional government officials, mayors of different cities and regions.

On March 3, more than 500 opponents of the new authorities in Kiev attempted to seize the Odessa Regional State Administration building. They demanded that a referendum on the establishment of an "Odessa Autonomous Republic" be held. As the protesters began to break windows and enter the building, Oblast Chairman and Party of Regions official Mykola Leonidovych Skoryk spoke to the crowd, saying that the police could not allow an "assault" on the RSA, and that Ukrainians "must live peacefully in a single state." Protesters shouted "traitor!" and "Judas!" at him. Meanwhile, Reuters reports that anti-Kiev protesters have broken into the first floor of the Donetsk RSA building.

According to Ukrainian officials Ukrainian troops stationed in Crimea were urged to surrender by the 4th of March at 5 a.m. (0300 GMT), or face an armed confrontation via an ultimatum issued by Alexander Vitko, the commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. This ultimatum was however denied by Russian officials.

On the same day, Russian soldiers seized a ferry terminal in the city of Kerch, the easternmost point of Crimea.

Economic consequences

As a result of the crisis, The Moscow stock market fell by 11.3 percent, wiping nearly $60 billion off the value of Russian companies in a day as of March 4th. In response Russia's central bank raised its interest rate from 5.5 to 7% and spent an additional 10 billion in reserves to defend the Ruble. The possibility for international sanctions against Russia has also been raised.

There are also significant worries that Russian gas exports into Europe and Ukraine may become disrupted by the current conflict. 30% of Europes's gas is imported from Russia, half of which through Ukrainian pipelines. On March 1st, Russia’s Energy Ministry decided to halt the subsidisation of Russian gas into Ukraine.

Reactions

Ukraine

File:Protest agaisnt Russia invading banner.jpg

A poster among a "Crimea is Ukraine" rally in Kiev, 2 March.

Three previous presidents of Ukraine accused Russia of interfering in Crimean affairs. Interim Ukraine President Oleksandr Turchynov at the start of the protests warned that there is a "serious risk" of separatism in parts of the country. On February 27, 2014, the Central Election Commission of Ukraine claimed that regional referendum is impossible due to lack of necessary legislative basis for such. On February 27, 2014, the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Oleksandr Turchynov was instructed to develop a new law "about language".

The new Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk stated in his maiden speech on February 27, "Ukraine will use all legal constitutional methods to preserve the territorial integrity of the state. Crimea was, is and will be a part of Ukraine!”.

On February 27, 2014, the MFA of Ukraine in response to the MID statement stated that the responsibility for non-compliance with the agreement on settlement of the crisis lies on the fourth president Viktor Yanukovych. "In Ukraine, the importance of the crisis settlement Agreement, signed on 21 February 2014 by the then president of Ukraine and opposition leaders, and witnessed by officials of Germany, France and Poland, is honoured. In this regard, we express disappointment that the representative of the Russian Federation, who also participated in the negotiation and drafting of the document, refused to testify this Agreement. It is possible that it was that factor that become at the end one of the reasons for the rejection by the former president of Ukraine to fulfill arrangements of the Agreement aimed at stabilizing the domestic life in the country," – said in the document.

On February 28, 2014, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution on events in Crimea. "Verkhovna Rada demands from the Russian Federation to stop steps that have signs of encroachment on state sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including to refuse supporting separatism in Ukraine in any form," – it was said in the ruling.

The Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Oleksandr Turchynov dismissed Yuriy Ilyin as the Chief of the General Staff. During the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution Ilyin was reportedly preparing a military operation against the protest movement in Kiev. Ilyin reportedly had a heart attack after meeting with the newly appointed mayor of Sevastopol.

Due to the events in Crimea, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine initiated bilateral consultations with Russia and indicated its readiness to initiate consultations within the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances framework if it receives no response.

The General Prosecutor office intended to raise the issue of the extradition of Viktor Yanukovych, who was confirmed to be in Russia. On 28 February, foreign observers speculated that Russia could extradite Yanukovych to the proper authorities only in exchange for Ukrainian non-intervention in Crimea. on February 28, the General Prosecutor of Ukraine Oleh Makhnitsky formally asked Russia to extradite Yanukovych.

On February 28, Dmytro Yarosh, the leader of the Right Sector, denounced reports of Right Sector putting together armed units to be sent to Crimea; "Right Sector hopes that a way out of this difficult situation will be found exclusively in the political field, without using forcible methods. Right Sector believes that all parties and non-governmental organizations of Ukraine should forget strife and unite when it comes to the preservation of Ukraine's integrity. We should help politicians in settling this conflict peacefully". On March 1, initial reports said that Dmytro Yarosh asked Dokka Umarov, Chechen militant associated with al-Qaeda, for support of Ukraine; but later it was announced about fake statement from his hacked account.

On March 1, 2014, the acting President of Ukraine sign an edict where he pointed out that appointment of Sergey Aksyonov as the Chairman of the Councils of Ministers of Crimea was in violation with the Constitution of Ukraine and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.

All three former presidents of Ukraine Leonid Kravchuk, Leonid Kuchma and Viktor Yushchenko called on Ukraine to renounce the Kharkiv Agreements. Leonid Kuchma's press-center later denounced such a statement on behalf of Leonid Kuchma.

On March 1, 2014, the acting President of Ukraine ordered the Armed Forces of Ukraine to full combat readiness.

On March 1, the Oblast council of Luhansk Oblast voted to demand giving Russian language the status of second official language, stopping ″persecution of Berkut fighters″, disarming Maidan self-defense units and banning a number far-right political organizations like Svoboda and UNA-UNSO. For the case the authorities failed to comply with the demands, the Oblast council reserved itself the ″right to ask for help from the brotherly people of the Russian Federation.″

The General Prosecutor of Ukraine filed new charges against the ousted president of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych, accusing him, among other charges, of calls to overthrow the constitutional order in Ukraine.

Crimea

Percentage of people with Russian as their native language according to 2001 census (in regions).

Operations of the Kerch ferry were suspended on February 27, 2014. The Ukrainians in Crimea called on Ukrainian officials to secure peace and security for Crimeans and for European officials to influence the Russian position in regards to separatist attitudes. The new chairman of the Council of Ministers hopes to receive financial help from the Russian Federation with support from Viktor Yanukovych. In the telephone conversation Volodymyr Konstantinov explained Nestor Shufrych (MP) that Crimea does not want a secession, but only to expand its right. The former chief of the general staff Yuriy Ilyin was reported to be hospitalized with a heart attack in the Ukrainian Navy hospital in Sevastopol.

Members of the Crimean government have declared their acceptance of Yanukovych as the legitimate President of Ukraine, deputy chairman of the Crimean parliament Konstantin Bakharev has said: "Today, Yanukovych is the legitimate president," though he also addressed issues concerning him saying, "But we have questions for him, questions as the leader of the government about his moral responsibility before the society, before the party he once led, and before Crimeans."

Viktor Yanukovych

Late at night on February 27, 2014, the former president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, who is wanted along with Zakharchenko under suspicion of mass killing of people, arrived in Rostov-on-Don escorted by jet fighters. On February 28, he conducted a press-conference. In this press conference Yanukovych stated "Crimea must remain part of the Ukrainian state retaining broad autonomy rights". According to him the unrest in Crimea was "an absolutely natural reaction to the bandit coup that has occurred in Kiev"; and he stated he was confident that the people of Crimea "do not want to obey and will not obey nationalists and bandits". He insisted that military action was "unacceptable" and that he would not request Russian military intervention.

Russia

The State Duma Committee on Commonwealth of Independent States Affairs, headed by Leonid Slutsky, visited Simferopol on February 25, 2014 and said: "If the parliament of the Crimean autonomy or its residents express the wish to join the Russian Federation, Russia will be prepared to consider this sort of application. We will be examining the situation and doing so fast." They also stated that in the event of a referendum for Crimea region joining Russian Federation they would consider its results "very fast". Later Slutsky announced that he was misunderstood by Crimean press and no decision regarding simplifying the process of acquiring Russian citizenship for people in Crimea has been made yet. And added that if "fellow Russian citizens are in jeopardy you understand that we do not stay away". On February 25, in a meeting with Crimean politicians he stated that Viktor Yanukovych was still the legitimate president of Ukraine. That same day in the Russian Duma, they announced they were determining measures so that Russians in Ukraine who 'did not want to break from the Russian World' could acquire Russian citizenship.

On February 26, 2014 Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian Armed Forces to be "put on alert in the Western Military District as well as units stationed with the 2nd Army Central Military District Command involved in aerospace defense, airborne troops and long-range military transport." Despite media speculation it was for in reaction to the events in Ukraine Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said it was in separate consideration from the unrest in Ukraine.

On February 27, 2014, the MID (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) of Russia dismissed any accusations about violation by the Russian side of the basic agreements in regards of the Black Sea Fleet: "All movements of armored vehicles are undertaken in full compliance with the basic agreements and did not require any approvals". That claim was also supported by the Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia Anatoliy Antonov.

On February 27, 2014, the Russian governing agencies presented the new law project on granting a citizenship.

MID of Russia called on the West and particularly NATO to "abandon the provocative statements and respect the neutral status of Ukraine". In its statement the MID claims that agreement on settlement of the crisis which was signed on 21 February and was witnessed by foreign ministries from Germany, Poland and France has to this date, not been implemented (Vladimir Lukin from Russia had not signed it).

The Black Sea Fleet administration made a press release denying any accusations of airports occupation.

According to RIA News, the faction A Just Russia initiated in the State Duma amendments to the law on accession to the Russian Federation.

According to ITAR-TASS, the Russian Ministry of Transport discontinued its further talks with Ukraine in regards to the Kerch Strait Bridge project.

In Russian social networks are gathering volunteers who served in army to go to Ukraine.

On February 28, President Putin stated it was of "extreme importance of not allowing a further escalation of violence and the necessity of a rapid normalisation of the situation in Ukraine" in telephone calls with key EU leaders.

The Federation Council approved that Russia may introduce a limited contingent of Russian troops in Crimea for the security of the Black Sea Fleet and the Russians.

On March 1, State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to use all resources available to protect the Crimean population from lawlessness and violence.

In Moscow, on March 2 an estimated 27,000 rallied in support of the Russian government's decision to intervene in Ukraine. Up to 15,000 participated in a similar rally in St. Petersburg, while around 12,000 rallied in Krasnodar. The rallies received considerable attention on Russian state TV and were officially sanctioned by the government.

Meanwhile, on March 1, five people who were picketing next to the Federation Council building against the invasion of Ukraine were arrested. The next day about 200 people protested at the building of the Russian Ministry of Defense in Moscow against Russian military involvement. About 500 people also gathered to protest on the Manezhnaya Square in Moscow and the same number of people on the Saint Isaac's Square in Saint Petersburg. On March 2 about eleven protesters demonstrated in Yekaterinburg against Russian involvement, with some wrapped in the Ukrainian flag. Protests were also held in Chelyabinsk on the same day.

Other

Supranational organizations

• European Union – On March 1, Foreign Affairs Chief Catherine Ashton stated that the EU "deplores" Russia's decision to use military action in Ukraine, describing it as an "unwarranted escalation of tensions." She called on "all sides to decrease the tensions immediately through dialogue, in full respect of Ukrainian and international law." And added that "The unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine must be respected at all times and by all sides. Any violation of these principles is unacceptable. More than ever, restraint and sense of responsibility are needed."

Joint State reactions

• Lithuania Poland – Lithuanian and Polish presidents call for NATO treaty Article 4 consultations (Lithuania tribune)(Polish President) as Russia is executing millitary maneuvers in Kaliningrad, close to borders with Lithuania and Poland Vilniaus diena.

Intergovernmental organizations

• OSCE – A diplomatic group was dispatched by the OSCE consisting of official representative and a head of the OSCE Commissar on affairs of national minorities.
• United Nations – On March 1, while members of the UN Security Council were meeting in an emergency closed-door session, a spokesman for the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon delivered a statement saying that the Secretary General was "gravely concerned about the deterioration of the situation" in Ukraine and planned to speak shortly with the Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ban's statement called for "full respect for and preservation of the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine" and demanded "immediate restoration of calm and direct dialogue between all concerned." The Security Council itself expressed support for the unity, territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. The Council agreed that it was important that all political actors in Ukraine exercise maximum restraint and called for an inclusive dialogue recognizing the diversity of the Ukrainian society.
• NATO – On March 2, 2014, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen convened the North Atlantic Council due to both Russia’s military action and President Putin’s threats against Ukraine. The North Atlantic Council issued a statement condemning Russia's military escalation in Crimea and stated that it was breach of international law. It called on Russia to respect its obligations under the UN Charter, the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, the Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation between Russia and Ukraine of 1997, and the legal framework regulating the presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

States

• Australia – On March 2, the Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said that Russia's actions in Ukraine were "not the kind ... of a friend and neighbour and I think Russia should back off". The Australian Prime Minister told the Australian House of Representatives on March 3 that "Russia should back off, it should withdraw its forces from the Ukraine and people of the Ukraine ought to be able to determine their future themselves" with the Australian Government cancelling a planned visit to Russia by the Trade Minister Andrew Robb.
• Belarus – On February 28, 2014, the Foreign Ministry expressed its concerns about events in Ukraine.
• Bulgaria – On March 1, Bulgaria's President Rosen Plevneliev said in a statement that "Bulgaria is for preserving the sovereignty, the territorial integrity and the democratic future of Ukraine". The President further said that the presence of foreign forces and their unauthorized activity within the territory of a sovereign state "raises serious concern" and called for an end to any provocative actions that could lead to "irreparable consequences not only for the region, but also for the international order". In a later statement that day, following the Russia's Parliament decree allowing the usage of Russian armed forces in Crimea, President Plevneliev reiterated that "the only lasting solution may be achieved by peaceful means and if the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine is guaranteed" and that "[t]he usage of military force to occupy foreign territories is violation of the rules of international law". The President also called on the UN Security Council and the countries-guarantors to the Budapest Memorandum to ensure a peaceful solution to the problem and to avoid a further escalation of the tension. In conclusion, President Plevneliev stated that "[t]he people of Ukraine should alone decide what their future should be in a democratic way".
• Canada – On Feb. 28 Foreign Minister Baird "congratulated the new government and emphasized the need to honour the 1994 Budapest Declaration's commitment to Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and national unity at this critical time." On a March 1 phone call President Obama and Prime Minister Harper "affirmed the importance of unity within the international community in support of international law, and the future of Ukraine and its democracy.' On the same day, Harper condemned Russia's military intervention in Ukraine; He announced that Canada had both recalled its ambassador to Russia and withdrew from preparations for the 40th G8 summit, which is to be chaired by Russia.
• China – On March 2, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Qin Gang stated that China condemned the recent extremist violence in the country and urged all parties to resolve their internal disputes peacefully. China has always followed the principle of non-interference in internal affairs, and respected Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. He urged all sides to find a solution through dialogue on the basis of international law and the norms governing international relations.
• Czech Republic – Foreign Minister Lubomír Zaorálek said on March 1, "I unambiguously reject and condemn the steps taken by the Russian Federation over the recent days. ... Russia has committed, not only to respect Ukraine´s territorial integrity and sovereignty, but also to guarantee them." He also said it reminded him of the 1968 Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia.
• Denmark – Foreign Minister Martin Lidegaard stated on March 2nd that, "This is a partial invasion of Ukraine by Russia". He made it clear that Denmark is working closely with the rest of EU and is preparing a condemning statement. He also called for Russia to respect international law.
• Estonia – Foreign Minister Urmas Paet stated on March 1 that, "The Russian parliament's decision to authorise the use of troops in Ukraine is a clear threat to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity," and that Russia's "... military threats and actions against Ukraine must stop." He called for the Ukrainian leadership to pursue all actions to reduce tensions and restore societal unity.
• Finland – Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja stated on March 1, that Russia is implementing a military takeover of Crimean territory and by doing so Russia is violating several international treaties and laws.
• France – The representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Romen Nadal, expressed his concerns on events in Crimea and reminded the foreign minister Laurent Fabius repeatedly called upon to preserve the unity and integrity of Ukraine.
• Georgia – President Giorgi Margvelashvili called on the international community "not to allow new conflict in Europe and to use all the available means in order to avert possible aggression and to preserve sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine."
• Germany – Chancellor Angela Merkel called Russia's actions "unacceptable" and their doings would break international law. Merkel reminded that Russia accepted the independence of the Ukraine in 1994 and is now not honoring the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. She was overheard saying that Putin "lives in a different world" while talking with Barack Obama per phone.
• Holy See – Pope Francis appealed to the international community "to support any initiative for dialogue and harmony."
• Hungary – In a statement issued 1 March, Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed concern about the situation on the Crimean Peninsula. The Ministry noted that the Visegrád Four Foreign Ministers had asked both the Kiev government leaders and the Donetsk region's political leaders to abstain from provocative steps that may heighten tension and lead to violence.
• Ireland – Minister for Foreign Affairs Eamon Gilmore expressed concern regarding the developments in Ukraine. The Irish Government called on the Russian Federation to abide by international law and to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity and independence.
• Italy – Prime Minister Matteo Renzi defined the military occupation as an unacceptable violation. Renzi also stated that he hoped for a peaceful conclusion.
• Japan – The Foreign Ministry issued a statement in which it said that the authorisation on Saturday "for use of the armed forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine heightens the tension in the region and would harm the peace and stability of the international community," as well that "In this regard, Japan expresses grave anxiety and concern over the decision. ... Japan strongly expects that the situation in Ukraine will be settled in a peaceful manner and strongly urges all the parties concerned to behave with maximum self-restraint and responsibility, to fully observe the relevant international laws," it concluded.
• Kazakhstan – On March 3rd, Kazakhstan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Kazakhstan is deeply concerned with the current situation in Ukraine. The statement urged all sides to renounce the use of power and to resolve the crisis through negotiations, "based on respect towards the fundamental principles of international law."
• Latvia – President of Latvia, Speaker of the parliament, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister issued a joint statement stating that "Latvia strongly stands for the territorial integrity of Ukraine and is of the opinion that any measures aimed at splitting Ukrainian society and questioning the territorial integrity of the country must be condemned in the strongest terms possible."
• Lithuania – The Foreign Ministry announced that it had called the Russia Ambassador to Lithuania to discuss the situation in Ukraine.
• Malta – The Maltese government has condemned recent developments in Crimea, and is insisting that Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity should be fully respected. Foreign Affairs Minister George Vella called on all parties involved to exercise maximum restraint, avoid any further provocative actions and immediately diffuse the situation.
• Moldova – On March 2, 2014, President Nicolae Timofti stated "Moldova underlines the importance to observe Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and not to allow violation of the international law principles.
• New Zealand – On March 3, 2014, Prime Minister of New Zealand John Key speaking on the morning news and talk show Breakfast, referred to the rising tensions in Ukraine as "deeply concerning". The Prime Minister further stated that while Russia has very real interests in Ukraine and Crimea specifically, he agreed with the United States condemnation of Russia's actions, stressing that it would, "...be a disaster if there was a major problem in the Ukraine," including that the use of force was in nobody's interests.
• Norway – The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemns the Russian military escalation in the Crimea together with the NATO countries. "The Russian authorities must immediately meet the Ukrainian request for dialogue to resolve the crisis without violence," said the Norwegian Foreign Minister Børge Brende.
• Poland – On March 1, 2014 Poland "strongly appeal[ed] for respecting Ukraine's territorial integrity, and observing international law, including fundamental principles of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe...We urge states-signatories to the Budapest Memorandum of December 1994, which gives Ukraine security assurances, to respect and fulfil their commitments.
• Romania – On the 2nd of March, president Traian Basescu said that any Russian Federation military presence in Ukraine, without Ukraine's approval and beyond the limits of bilateral accords, would be seen as an act of aggression.
• South Africa – On the 2nd of March, spokesperson Nelson Kgwete stated that "The South African government would like to express its deep concern about the unfolding political situation in Ukraine" and that "We will continue to monitor the situation and encourage international diplomatic efforts meant to produce a lasting peaceful solution".
• Spain – The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation released a statement in support of the new Ukrainian government, saying the following: "The Spanish government is concerned about the situation in Ukraine, which remains uncertain and unstable. The current tension in Crimea is especially concerning". The government also expressed its "full support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine", and urged all actors to "cooperate in finding a solution, while dismissing any use of force".
• Slovenia - Prime Minister Alenka Bratušek said that all has to be done to prevent a military conflict to occur in Ukraine, while ministry of foreign affairs has offered to become a mediator for the EU.
• Sweden – Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt saying March 2 in an interview on Sveriges Radio:"It's somewhat understandable that Russia is acting on concerns about the Russian minority of Crimea and eastern Ukraine, but not in the way they're doing it. There are of course methods for talking to the Ukrainian government and calm down the situation in that way." Foreign Minister Carl Bildt tweeted on March 1, "Russian military intervention in Ukraine is clearly against international law and principles of European security."
• Turkey – Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu stated on 28 February that "Turkey attaches importance to democracy and democracy-based political stability in Ukraine's future" and that "Crimea is important for Turkey as it is Turkey's door to Ukraine and it is also important for our Tatar compatriots."
• United Kingdom – The Foreign Secretary William Hague said he was "deeply concerned" at the escalation of tensions and the decision of the Russian parliament to authorise military action. He also said "This action is a potentially grave threat to the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine. We condemn any act of aggression against Ukraine".
• United States – On February 28, President Barack Obama's statement was released warning Russia not to intervene in Crimea. The statement said that President Obama is "deeply concerned by reports of military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine." It added that "any violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilizing, which is not in the interest of Ukraine, Russia, or Europe" and that it would be "a clear violation of Russia's commitment to respect the independence and sovereignty and borders of Ukraine, and of international laws." John Kerry condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 2 March in an interview for Face the Nation. He called it an "incredible act of aggression," and said that "you just don't in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext."

On March 1, President Obama held a phone conversation with Putin and said that the Russian invasion was a "violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity ... [and a] breach of international law." He warned of "greater political and economic isolation" and threatened to withdraw the United States from the 40th G8 summit chaired by Russia.

Commentary

Russian opposition leader Garry Kasparov, former US National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, Ukrainian MP Lesya Orobets, and the former foreign minister of the Czech Republic, Karel Schwarzenberg compared Russia's actions to Nazi Germany's policy before the start of World War II, after the 1936 Olympic Games in Berlin.Several scholars, including Alexander J. Motyl, Paul A. Goble, Timothy D. Snyder, and Andreas Umland, have discussed the possibility of Russian military intervention in Crimea specifically, due to its unique geopolitical nature and demographics.

Nina L. Khrushcheva, the great-granddaughter of former Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev and a Russian Affairs professor at the The New School, says that the aims of Crimea is not necessarily independence from Ukraine, but rather continued dependence on Russia. However, this has instead led Putin to justify continued backing for Yanukovych as well as his own desires to re-take the peninsula. Nevertheless, she acknowledges that Putin's long term goal may not be annexation of Crimea, since this could cause ethnic Crimean Tatars, who had been forcibly displaced by Stalin to Central Asia, to demand a return to Crimea and possibly cause the Islamic insurgency to spread out of the Northern Caucasus. Furthermore, she also states that if Russia sets a precedent of recovering "lost territory", this could inspire countries such as China or Georgia to demand back their own "stolen lands".

Volodymyr Panchenko, of the Kiev-based think-tank International Center for Policy Studies, says that the aim of Russia is for Crimea to be "more or less controlled by Russian troops," but that if or when a referendum is held "more than 80 percent" of votes would be for secession from Ukraine. The way events are unfolding in Crimea "is not a good precedent for the other provinces."

Commentators speculated as to whether Cold War tactics might be used, or whether the Crimean crisis could result in the start of a second Cold War.

See also

• History of Crimea
• Internal Troops of Ukraine
• Naval Infantry (Russia)
• Russia–Ukraine relations
• Spetsnaz
• Spetsnaz GRU
• State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
• Ukrainian Air Force
• Ukrainian Ground Forces
• Ukrainian Marine Corps
• Security dilemma
• Hobbesian trap
• The Great Game
• The New Great Game
• Russo-Georgian War

External links

• Ukraine crisis on BBC News Online