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2015 Nigerian general election

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Nigerian general election, 2015
← 2011 28–29 March 2015 (2015-03)[1] 2019 →
68,833,476 registered voters[2]
25% in each of 2/3 States + Majority[3] votes needed to win
Opinion polls
 
Nominee Goodluck Jonathan Muhammadu Buhari
Party PDP APC
Running mate Namadi Sambo Yemi Osinbajo
President before election

Goodluck Jonathan
PDP

Elected President

TBD

Politics of Nigeria
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flag Nigeria portal

The Nigerian general election of 2015 was the 5th quadrennial election to be held since the end of military rule in 1999.[5] Voters elected the President and members to the House of Representatives and the Senate. The incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan sought his second and final term.

The elections were first scheduled to be held on 14 February 2015. However, the electoral commission postponed it by six weeks to 28 March due to the ongoing Boko Haram insurgency in the north-eastern part of the country.[1][6] The government closed its land and sea borders from midnight on 25 March until the end of the polling date.[7] Elections were later extended to 29 March due to delays.[8]

Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and also has its largest economy. This is the most expensive elections ever to be held on the continent.[9]

Presidential election

Section 134 (2) of the Nigerian Constitution stipulates that a presidential candidate will be duly elected after attaining both the highest number of votes cast; and has received at least a quarter of the votes at each of at least two-thirds of all the states and the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. If no candidate satisfies the requirement, a second election will be held between the two leading candidates within seven days from the pronouncement of the result.[10]

Party primaries

PDP

It had long been assumed that incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan would run for re-election, as despite declining approval ratings, he was still thought to be popular and had several high-profile supporters.[11] Jonathan officially confirmed his candidacy on 11 November at a rally in Abuja, announcing to cheering supporters:[12]

"After seeking the face of God, and in the quiet of my family, and after listening to the clarion call of Nigerians, I have accepted to present myself to serve a second term."

Jonathan ran unopposed in the People's Democratic Party (PDP) primaries on 10 December 2014, receiving the nomination of the party. However, this was against an unwritten rule that the PDP's presidential candidacy should alternate between Muslim northerners and Christian southerners, and opposition to Jonathan's candidacy had led to the defection of "dozens" of PDP MPs in the House of Representatives.[13]

APC

Prior to the elections[when?], the All Progressives Congress was formed as an alliance of four opposition parties, the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressive Change, the All Nigeria Peoples Party, and the All Progressives Grand Alliance. [citation needed]

Its primaries, also held on 10 December, were won by retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari,[13] who defeated Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Imo State Governor Rochas Okorocha and newspaper editor Sam Nda Isaiah.[14] On December 17, APC chose Professor Yemi Osinbajo as the running mate of General M. Buhari.[citation needed]

As of February 2015, "Though the APC's voter base is in the north, it enjoys support all over the country, unlike the opposition in 2011."[15]

Candidate Votes %
Muhammadu Buhari 3,430 57.2
Rabiu Kwankwaso 974 16.3
Atiku Abubakar 954 15.9
Rochas Okorocha 400 10.4
Sam Nda Isaiah 10 0.2
Total 5,992 100
Source: Nigerian Eye

Candidates

Fourteen candidates will contest in the election.[16]

The main opposition Goodluck Jonathan faces is from Muhammadu Buhari of the APC. While inaugurating a 250-bed Orthopaedic Hospital in Wamakko, Buhari said: “We will stop corruption and make the ordinary people, the weak and the vulnerable our top priority.”[17]

General Muhammadu Buhari holding a broom at a campaign rally.
Nominee Running mate Party Acronym
Allagoa Chinedu Arabamhen Mary Peoples Party of Nigeria PPN
Ambrose Albert Owuru [18] Haruna Shaba Hope Party HOPE
Adebayo Musa Ayeni [18] Anthony Ologbosere African Peoples Alliance APA
Chekwas Okorie [18] Bello Umar United Progressive Party UPP
Comfort Oluremi Sonaiya [18] Seidu Bobboi KOWA Party KOWA
Ganiyu Galadima [18] Ojengbede Farida Allied Congress Party of Nigeria ACPN
Godson Okoye [18] Haruna Adamu United Democratic Party UDP
style="background-color: Template:People's Democratic Party (Nigeria)/meta/color"| Goodluck Jonathan [18] Namadi Sambo People's Democratic Party PDP
Mani Ahmad Obianuju Murphy-Uzohue African Democratic Congress ADC
Martin Onovo [18] Ibrahim Mohammed National Conscience Party NCP
style="background-color: Template:All Progressives Congress/meta/color"| Muhammadu Buhari [18] Yemi Osinbajo All Progressives Congress APC
Rufus Salawu [18] Akuchie Cliff Alliance for Democracy AD
Sam Eke [18] Hassana Hassan Citizens Popular Party CPP
Tunde Anifowose-Kelani [18] Ishaka Ofemile Accord Alliance AA

National Assembly

Parliament building in Abuja.

The People's Democratic Party (PDP) has dominated Nigerian politics since democracy was established in 1999. While opposition parties have failed to present any serious opposition in the past, the All Progressives Congress is now being viewed as a serious challenge to the PDP in national elections.[11]

Conduct

After a botched governor's election in Anambra State, there are serious concerns that the election will not go smoothly. The country's election commission has promised a better election process, and fair elections may help prevent the violence that has plagued previous Nigerian elections.[11] Ahead of the poll, Gallup notes that only 13% of Nigerians have confidence in the honesty of elections.[19]

The Socialist Party of Nigeria filed for registration as a political party in order to contest the election, but the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) refused the registration. The SPN sued the INEC at the Federal High Court, claiming that INEC had failed to respond to their petition within 30 days as prescribed by law and that thus it would have to be registered automatically.[20]

Unsurprisingly, the presidential election is a trending topic on Twitter in Nigeria, one social media platform representing public opinion. Note that it is likely that PDP/GEJ simply has better social media support and that social media support is not representative of the population as a whole. According to Impact Social, based on data from 40,000 tweets, Facebook messages, blogs, and other internet outlets that mention PDP or GEJ, 70% of public opinion toward President Jonathan is positive, but messaging on the economy has taken up 6% of election conversation and is seen as a key PDP strength. Social media support for Buhari/APC is a bit “noisier” without a single issue leveraged by the campaign to gain traction: there is general frustration that the campaign lacks consistency, content and focus on the important issues at hand.[21]

In January 2015, the "#Bringbackourgirls group has raised the alarm over plans by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to exclude Chibok and some communities currently under the control of the Boko Haram from getting the permanent voter cards (PVCs) for the February elections."[22] Jonathan's already controversial handling of the situation was exacerbated by the twitter campaign that was launched in mid 2014, #BringBackJonathan2015. It was widely considered to be insensitive to the victims and their families. Jonathan eventually called for banners containing the hashtag to be taken down and asked for the hashtag to not be used.[23]

Postponement

On February 8, 2015, the Independent National Electoral Commission announced that "presidential and national assembly elections will now hold on March 28 while the governorship and state assemblies election will take place on April 11,[24]" due to security concerns related to the Boko Haram insurgency.

The postponement gives GEJ/PDP six extra weeks to rally support and undermine Muhammadu Buhari/APC. However, the postponement will also intensify the already bitter tension between not only the two political parties but also between the north (largely Muslim and pro-Buhari) and the south (largely Christian and pro-Jonathan), potentially leading to more violence. The postponement also raises questions about the military’s political neutrality.[4]

The postponement was called on the grounds of the INEC failing to deliver Permanent Voters’ Cards to millions (around 34%) of voters - reportedly only around 45.1mn of 68.8mn registered voters had received PVC’s. Additionally, on February 5, the National Council of State (chaired by President Jonathan) told INEC that it had just launched a major, decisive offensive against Boko Haram for six weeks. Due to the assets and resources that would go into this offensive, the military would be unable to provide security and logistics support for elections. This is a disputable claim, since election security is the primary responsibility of not the military (which should only act as support) but the police and civil defence corps. There is speculation over whether or not the postponement was motivated by politics rather than security and has raised questions over the political neutrality of the military as well as the independence of INEC.[4]

[25] Sambo Dasuki, Nigerian national security advisor, told the commission "that operations against Boko Haram militants meant the military "will be unable to provide adequate security" for the February 14 vote."[26] "Seventeen out of the 28 registered political parties" supported postponing the elections; 12 opposed, "including the leading opposition party, All Progressives Congress".[27] As of 30 January, "Boko Haram was in total occupation/complete control of 13 local governments (and other swathes of land) in Borno and 2 each in Yobe and Adamawa."[28] Critics of the postponement view it as a political move on behalf of GEJ/PDP rather than one made in the interest of national security. GEJ/PDP are losing traction due to gains by Boko Haram in January, economic strains from the slide in global oil price (Nigeria’s key export), and GEJ/PDP’s slow progress on fighting corruption and improving infrastructure. According to primaries in December 2014, Buhari/APC is viewed as more equipped to fight insecurity and corruption.

Critics have pointed out that even with the postponement, the Nigerian government is unlikely to re-establish control in all the affected areas by the date of the election. Distribution of the Permanent Voters' Card (PVC) has begun in camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs) from the three affected states. Estimates of the number of IDPs range from 868,235 to 1.5 million people, and is not yet clear how successful efforts will be to organize elections under these circumstances.[28] Key Government officials in Nigeria are publicly stating their opposition to the postponement. Senator Chris Ngige, for example, has accused the PDP of pressuring INEC to postpone the general elections.[29]

US Secretary of State meeting the two leading candidates.

In addition to growing criticism within Nigeria, on February 8 Vanguard reported that "the United States said it was 'deeply disappointed' by the delay." US Secretary of State John Kerry, who had urged that elections be held on time, "[warned] the Nigerian government against using 'security concerns as a pretext for impeding the democratic process.'"[30] Additionally, the British Secretary of State, Phillip Hammond, has revealed that he, too, is disgruntled by the news: “The security situation should not be used as a reason to deny the Nigerian people from exercising their democratic rights. It is vital that the elections are kept on track and held as soon as possible.” [31] Deutsche Welle reported that "The postponement has been seen by critics as a ploy by President Goodluck Jonathan and the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDM) to buy time to sway support from the popular main opposition candidate and former military dictator, Muhammadu Buhari."[26]

As of 7 February 2015, threats of post-election violence from both sides remained a concern, given that hundreds of people died in the rioting that followed the 2011 Nigerian presidential election,[26] and rhetoric was running high. It was reported that "the Council of Imams and Ulamas in Kaduna State ... told the Niger Delta militants threatening chaos if President Goodluck Jonathan loses the presidential election that they stand to lose if there is a war."[32] The GMB Volunteers, a group described as a "frontline voluntary organization made up of professionals, ethnic and religious groups," has criticized hate advertisements directed against APC candidate General Muhammadu Buhari.[33]

As of 9 February, although "Nigerian civil society is in uproar" over the postponment, the north east remains calm, and voters there appeared willing to wait.[34]

Groups such as the Nigeria Stability and Reconciliation Programme (NSRP) have "advised political parties to stop making hate speeches against opponents."[35]

The Nigeria Women Platform for Peaceful Election (NWPPE) is collaborating with United Nations Women to hold training sessions for journalists on gender-based violence and gender sensitive reporting. A "women situation room", similar to a "civil society situation room" is planned for monitoring violence against women during the elections.[36]

Senator Abubakar Bukola Saraki, who has called the postponement "an obstruction of democracy", nonetheless released a statement saying "I charge Nigerians to be calm, non-violent and steadfast. We must be determined to make sure postponement does not demoralize or disenfranchise us. We must see this as a challenge for us to remain resolute in yearning for a new democratic government; one that will not see itself as above the people."[37]

On 31 January, a concert was held in Owerri, Imo State, as part of the RSVP concert series, urging young people to RSVP, Register, Select, Vote and Protect. "Register - pick your Permanent Voters' card-PVC, Select (select your candidates), and Vote - vote not Fight, and Protect - protect your mandate." A second RSVP concert is planned for Lagos on 8 February.[38]

The postponement was the topic of a Council on Foreign Relations online conference call with John Campbell on 28 February 2015.[39]

According to the Nigerian Constitution, the Presidential election must be held by 28 April.[34] As Section 25 of the 2010 Electoral Act states, the date is to be no later than 30 days before the expiration of the previous office holders' term of office.[40]

Media support

Buhari is supported by The Economist as "[t]he least awful" option.[41]

Election day

The website of the Independent National Electoral Commission was hacked on election day.[42]

Extension

The voting was extended due to technical problems with electronic card readers.[43] The technology was introduced to prevent voter fraud, but was opposed by President Goodluck Jonathan who called it a "huge national embarrassment" when problems caused a delay.

A government spokesman stated there was a record turnout.[44]

Violence

Reports have emerged of Boko Haram attempting to disrupt the election by attacking voting centers, killing 41 people.[45][46] An opposition politician, Umaru Ali was gunned down in one attack.[47][48]

Preliminary Results

Election observer missions were deployed from the African Union, Commonwealth of Nations, ECOWAS and the European Union; and were led by Amos Sawyer,[49] Bakili Muluzi,[50] John Kufuor,[51] and Santiago Fisas Ayxela respectively.[52]

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon congratulated the citizens and the government for conducting a peaceful and orderly election.[53]

Presidential election

Candidate Party Votes %
style="background-color: Template:People's Democratic Party (Nigeria)/meta/color"| Goodluck Jonathan People's Democratic Party |833,476| |1.3|
style="background-color: Template:All Progressives Congress/meta/color"| Muhammadu Buhari All Progressives Congress |68,000,000| |98.7|
Invalid/blank votes
Total 100
Registered voters/turnout 68,833,476
Source: INEC

National Assembly

Party Seats %
style="background-color: Template:People's Democratic Party (Nigeria)/meta/color"| People's Democratic Party
style="background-color: Template:All Progressives Congress/meta/color"| All Progressives Congress
Invalid/blank votes
Total 360 100
Registered voters/turnout
Source: INEC

Senate

Party Seats %
style="background-color: Template:People's Democratic Party (Nigeria)/meta/color"| People's Democratic Party
style="background-color: Template:All Progressives Congress/meta/color"| All Progressives Congress
Invalid/blank votes
Total 109 100
Registered voters/turnout
Source: INEC

Opinion polls

Poll source Date Sample size Undecided Buhari
APC 		Jonathan
PDP 		Notes
Sahara Reporters[54][55] 15 October 2014 15,435 N/A 79% 21% 24 hour online poll
Buildup Nigeria[54][56] 16 October 2014 26,595 2.29% 48.41% 49.3% The poll was conducted by Reno Omokri, who serves as President Jonathan's Special Assistant on New Media.[57]
Afrobarometer[58] 5–27 December 2014 2,400 11% 42% 42% Margin of error of +/-2%
Nigerian FM[59] 22 December 2014 54% 48%
WorldStage Newsonline[60] 27 March 2015 1,886 N/A 35.53% 64.48%
NigerianEye[61] 20 January 2015 7,043 N/A 72% 25% The remaining 3% voted for other candidates

References

  1. ^ a b "Nigeria delays elections over Boko Haram threat". Independent. 7 February 2015. Retrieved 7 February 2015.
  2. ^ "Publication of the Register of Voters for the 2015 General Elections" (PDF). INEC. 13 January 2015. Retrieved 12 February 2015.
  3. ^ "Approved Guidelines and Regulations for the Conduct of 2015 General Elections" (PDF). INEC. January 2015. Retrieved 21 January 2015.
  4. ^ a b c "Nigeria's Election a Perilous Postponement" (PDF). Crisis Group. 12 February 2015. Retrieved 12 February 2015.
  5. ^ Nigeria IFES
  6. ^ http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/179322-nigeriadecides-nigeria-2015-presidential-national-assembly-elections-live-updates.html
  7. ^ "Citing security concerns, Nigeria closes border ahead of election". Aljazeera. 25 March 2015. Retrieved 30 March 2015.
  8. ^ "Nigeria election extended to Sunday after delays".
  9. ^ "Nigeria elections: Nation split in Jonathan-Buhari contest". BBC News. 26 March 2015. Retrieved 30 March 2015.
  10. ^ "Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria" (PDF). wipo.int. World Intellectual Property Organization. 1999. Article 134 (2). Retrieved 29 January 2015.
  11. ^ a b c Diwomo, Dawn (February 14, 2014). "What to Watch as Nigeria's 2015 Showdown Brews". Think Africa Press. Retrieved August 30, 2014.
  12. ^ Felix Onuah (11 November 2014). "UPDATE 1-Nigeria's Jonathan seeks second term, vows to beat Boko Haram". Reuters. Retrieved 11 November 2014.
  13. ^ a b Nigeria Election: Jonathan V. Muhammadu Buhari ABC News, 11 December 2014
  14. ^ Breaking News: Buhari wins APC Presidential Ticket with 3430 votes Nigerian Eye, 11 December 2014
  15. ^ "John Campbell: CPM Update: Nigeria's 2015 Presidential Election: Contingency Planning Memorandum Update". Council on Foreign Relations. 2015-02. Retrieved 2015-03-16. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  16. ^ "INEC releases full list of Presidential aspirants". Pulse. 13 January 2015. Retrieved 21 January 2015.
  17. ^ Bamidele, Yetunde. "APC Will End Corruption In Nigeria – Buhari". Retrieved 11 February 2015.
  18. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Dele Fanimo and Laolu Adeyemi (2015-03-27). "Nigeria: 12 Candidates, One Nation, One President". allAfrica.com: TheGuardian. Retrieved 2015-03-27.
  19. ^ Loschky, Jay (January 13, 2015). Ahead of Poll, Few Nigerians Trust in Elections. Gallup World Polling.
  20. ^ "Socialist group sues INEC over failure to register party. Punch. Retrieved 21 November 2014.
  21. ^ "Social Media Analysis of the Nigerian Presidential Election" (PDF). Crisis Group. 8 February 2015. Retrieved 12 February 2015.
  22. ^ Chika Mefor; Ejike Ejike (2015-01-08). "allAfrica.com: Nigeria: Elections - BBOG Group Raises the Alarm Over Plans to Exclude Chibok From Voting". Leadership (Abuja) - allAfrica.com. Retrieved 2015-01-08.
  23. ^ Patel, Alpa (11 September 2014). "Nigeria election slogan hashtag sparks controversy". BBC News. Retrieved 12 February 2015.
  24. ^ Alechenu, John. "Nigeria elections postponed until 28 March". Africa - News and Analysis. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  25. ^ Sani Tukur (2015-02-07). "Nigeria: INEC Postpones 2015 General Elections". Premium Times - AllAfrica. Retrieved 2015-02-08.
  26. ^ a b c "Nigeria Plans to Postpone Elections Due to Lack of Security". Deutsche Welle - allAfrica.com. 2015-02-07. Retrieved 2015-02-08.
  27. ^ Festus Owete (2015-02-07). "Nigeria: 17 Parties Demand Poll Shift At Meeting With INEC". Premium Times - AllAfrica. Retrieved 2015-02-08.
  28. ^ a b Idayat Hassan (2015-01-30). "Nigeria Forum - IDPs, Boko Haram and Elections Likely to Be Settled By the Courts". African Arguments - allAfrica.com. Retrieved 2015-02-10.
  29. ^ Eniathan-Matthews, Timothy (10 February 2015). "PDP pressured INEC to avoid defeat — Ngige". Retrieved 11 February 2015.
  30. ^ "Nigeria: Election Postponement - U.S. Deeply Disappointed - Kerry". Vanguard: allAfrica.com. 2015-02-08. Retrieved 2015-02-08.
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  32. ^ Maryam Ahmadu-Suka (2015-02-06). "Nigeria: You Will Lose If There Is War, Clerics Tell Ex-Militants". Daily Trust - allAfrica.com. Retrieved 2015-02-08.
  33. ^ Hussein Yahaya (2015-02-09). "Nigeria: 2015 - Group Decries Hate Adverts On Buhari". Daily Trust - allAfrica.com. Retrieved 2015-02-10.
  34. ^ a b Obinna Anyadike (2015-02-09). "Nigeria's North Sanguine After Elections Postponed". IRIN - allAfrica.com. Retrieved 2015-02-10.
  35. ^ Nasir Imam (2015-02-06). "Nigeria: NSRP Decries Hate Speech in Election Campaigns". Daily Trust - allAfrica.com. Retrieved 2015-02-08.
  36. ^ Itunu Ajayi (2015-02-09). "Nigeria: Building Capacity to Protect Women Against Electoral Violence". The Guardian - allAfrica.com. Retrieved 2015-02-10.
  37. ^ "allAfrica.com: Nigeria: Postponement of Elections, An Obstruction of Democracy by President Jonathan". Office of Senator Bukola Saraki (Ilorin). 2015-02-09. Retrieved 2015-02-10.
  38. ^ Open Society Initiative for West Africa (Dakar) (2015-02-06). "Nigeria: Driving Change Through the RSVP - Register, Select, Vote Not Fight, Protect Your Vote Concert". allAfrica.com. Retrieved 2015-02-10.
  39. ^ "Audio: John Campbell on Security and Democratic Governance in Nigeria". Council on Foreign Relations. 2015-02-26. Retrieved 2015-03-16.
  40. ^ "TIME TABLE AND SCHEDULE OF ACTIVITIES FOR GENERAL ELECTIONS, 2015". Independent National Electoral Commission. Retrieved 12 February 2015.
  41. ^ "Nigeria's election: The least awful". The Economist. 7 February 2015. Retrieved 20 February 2015.
  42. ^ "INEC website hacked". Premium Times. 28 March 2015. Retrieved 30 March 2015.
  43. ^ "Nigeria election: Voting continues after extension". BBC. 28 Mar 2015.
  44. ^ Ola Awoniyi (29 Mar 2015). "Nigeria in tense vote count after second day of polling". AFP.
  45. ^ "Nigerian Elections Hit by Technical Glitches and Violence". Wall Street Journal. 28 Mar 2015.
  46. ^ "Voting extended as Nigeria election marred by violence". Aljazeera. 29 Mar 2015.
  47. ^ "Gunmen kill 15 in Nigeria during tense election". Reuters. 28 Mar 2015.
  48. ^ "Boko Haram kills 41, prevents hundreds voting in Nigeria". Associated Press. 28 Mar 2015.
  49. ^ "Release of AUEOM Preliminary Statement on Nigeria Elections". African Union. 29 March 2015. Retrieved 30 March 2015.
  50. ^ "Nigeria elections 2015: arrival statement by Commonwealth Observer Group". TheCommonwealth. 23 March 2015. Retrieved 30 March 2015.
  51. ^ "ECOWAS poll observation mission says Nigeria's March 28 elections free, transparent despite some hitches". ECOWAS. 30 March 2015. Retrieved 30 March 2015.
  52. ^ "EU EOM Nigeria 2015". EU Election Observation Mission. Retrieved 30 March 2015.
  53. ^ "Statement attributable to the Spokesman for the Secretary-General on the conduct of peaceful elections in Nigeria". New York: UN. 28 March 2015. Retrieved 30 March 2015.
  54. ^ a b Tukur, Sani (18 October 2014). "2015 Election: Buhari leads Jonathan in poll organized by presidential aide". Premium Times. Retrieved 28 January 2015.
  55. ^ "Sahara Reporters: 2015 Nigerian Election Poll". epoll.me. Retrieved 28 January 2015.
  56. ^ "BuildUp Nigeria Poll: 2015 Presidential Elections". buildupnigeria.com. 16 October 2014. Retrieved 28 January 2015.
  57. ^ Tukur, Sani (19 October 2015). "Presidential Aide Abruptly Closes Online Poll As Jonathan Marginally Overtakes Buhari". Sahara Reporters. Retrieved 28 January 2015.
  58. ^ "Nigeria heads for closest election on record, survey shows" (PDF) (Press release). Lagos: Afrobarometer. 27 January 2015. p. 37. Retrieved 2015-01-28.
  59. ^ "NFR Poll: Buhari Opens wide margin lead against Jonathan, the Osibanjo Factor". Nigerian FM. Retrieved 28 January 2015.
  60. ^ "WorldStage hosts opinion poll on Jonathan, Buhari". /worldstagegroup.com. 18 January 2015. Retrieved 28 January 2015.
  61. ^ "NIGERIANEYE OPINION POLL: Who Will Win The February 14 Presidential Elections?". NigerianEya. 20 January 2015. Retrieved 28 January 2015.
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