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2020 United States presidential election in Florida

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Florida
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout77.17%[1] Increase 2.69 pp
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 29 0
Popular vote 5,668,731 5,297,045
Percentage 51.22% 47.86%
County results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Florida
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Government

The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent president Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, and his running mate California senator Kamala Harris. Florida has 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Florida was one of six states where Trump received more percentage of the two-party vote than he did in 2016. [a]

Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[4] The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston; Milwaukee was ultimately selected as the host.[5][6] Florida was Trump's state of residency for this election, after having identified New York as his home state in 2016.[7] As a result, Trump became the first nominee of either major party to be a Florida resident. Biden was selected as the Democratic nominee in the 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020.

Prior to the election, aggregate polls had Joe Biden in the lead in Florida by up to almost 3 points. Despite this, Trump won the state by a 3.4% margin, improving upon his margin from 2016 over Hillary Clinton by 2.2%; it was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since 2004. This was due to increased support among Latino voters in the state, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which Biden carried by just a 7.3% margin, significantly lower than Clinton's 29.4% margin in 2016 or Obama's 23.7% margin in 2012.[8] Trump carried Latinos of Cuban heritage with 58%, while Biden carried Puerto Ricans with 66% and South Americans with 50%.[9][10] Trump labeled Biden as a "trojan horse for socialism". [11]Another reason could also be Donald Trump making the Sunshine State his state of residence this year, after living in the state of New York in 2016. In this election, Florida voted 7.9 points right of the nation as a whole, the furthest it has voted from the nation since 1988, when Florida voted 14.6 points right of the nation.

This election was the first time since 1992, and only the second time since 1960, that Florida went to the losing candidate in a presidential election. It was also the first time since 1960 that both Ohio and Florida have voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election, and the first time since 1992 that Florida voted Republican while neighboring Georgia voted Democratic.

Despite his loss statewide, Biden became the first Democrat to win Duval County since 1976, and the first Democrat to win Seminole County since 1948.[12][13] Biden also flipped Pinellas County back to the Democratic Party. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying St. Lucie County since 1992.

Florida is one of three states that voted twice for both Barack Obama and Donald Trump, with the other two being Ohio and Iowa. Additionally, both Ohio and Florida voted twice for George W. Bush.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.

Republican primary

The Florida secretary of state declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Republican presidential primary § FLresults.[edit]
2020 Florida Republican presidential primary[14][15]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 1,162,984 93.79 122
Bill Weld 39,319 3.17
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 25,464 2.05
Rocky De La Fuente 12,172 0.98
Total 1,239,939 100% 122

Democratic primary

Three Democrats were still in race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard.[16][17][18]

The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.[19]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary § FLresults.[edit]
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
  Biden—80–90%
2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary[20]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[21]
Joe Biden 1,077,375 61.95 162
Bernie Sanders 397,311 22.84 57
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[b] 146,544 8.43
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 39,886 2.29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[b] 32,875 1.89
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 17,276 0.99
Tulsi Gabbard 8,712 0.50
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 5,286 0.30
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 4,244 0.24
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 2,510 0.14
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 1,744 0.10
John Delaney (withdrawn) 1,583 0.09
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 1,507 0.09
Julián Castro (withdrawn) 1,036 0.06
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) 664 0.04
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 661 0.04
Total 1,739,214 100% 219

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[22] Tossup November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[23] Tilt D (flip) November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] Lean R November 3, 2020
Politico[25] Tossup November 3, 2020
RCP[26] Tossup November 3, 2020
Niskanen[27] Likely D (flip) November 3, 2020
CNN[28] Tossup November 3, 2020
The Economist[29] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
CBS News[30] Tossup November 3, 2020
270towin[31] Tossup November 3, 2020
ABC News[32] Tossup November 3, 2020
NPR[33] Tossup November 3, 2020
NBC News[34] Tossup November 3, 2020
538[35] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided[c] 		Margin
270 to Win October 24 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 48.7% 46.0% 5.3% Biden +2.7
Real Clear Politics October 28 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 47.9% 47.0% 5.1% Biden +0.9
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.1% 46.6% 4.3% Biden +2.5
Average 48.6% 46.5% 4.9% Biden +2.1

State polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
Insider Advantage/Fox 35 Nov 1–2, 2020[e] 400 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 47% 2% - – 3%
Trafalgar Group Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2020 1,054 (LV) ± 2.94% 49% 47% 2% - 1%[f] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 8,792 (LV) ± 1.5% 49%[g] 49% - - – –
AYTM/Aspiration Oct 30 – Nov 1, 2020 517 (LV) – 43% 45% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 806 (LV) ± 3.45% 48% 51% 0% 0% – 1%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 46% 2% - 2%[h] 3%
Quinnipiac University Oct 28 – Nov 1, 2020 1,657 (LV) ± 2.4% 42% 47% - - 1%[i] 9%
Swayable Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,261 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 53% 1% 1% – –
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,202 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 51% 1% 1% 0%[j] –
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 670 (LV) ± 4.3% 46%[k] 50% 1% 0% 1%[l] –
46%[m] 50% - - 2%[n] 2%
47%[o] 51% - - 2%[p] –
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere[B] Oct 30–31, 2020 768 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% - - – –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 29–31, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 48% - - 3%[q] –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 27–31, 2020 1,451 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 47% 2% 1% 0%[r] 6%[s]
Morning Consult Oct 22–31, 2020 4,451 (LV) ± 2% 45% 52% - - – –
St. Pete Polls Oct 29–30, 2020 2,758 (LV) ± 1.9% 48% 49% 1% - – 2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 28–30, 2020 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 47%[k] 51% - - 2%[t] 0%
45%[u] 52% - - 2%[v] 0%
48%[w] 49% - - 2%[x] 0%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart Oct 25–30, 2020 1,027 (LV) – 47% 51% - - 2%[y] –
AtlasIntel Oct 28–29, 2020 786 (LV) ± 3% 48.5% 48.5% - - – 3%
Public Policy Polling/Climate Power 2020[C] Oct 28–29, 2020 941 (V) – 45% 52% - - – 3%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill Oct 26–29, 2020 1,148 (LV) ± >=3% 47% 50% - - – 3%
ABC/Washington Post Oct 24–29, 2020 824 (LV) ± 4% 50% 48% 1% 0% 0%[z] 0%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 27–28, 2020 1,587 (LV) – 46% 50% 1% 0% 0% 3%
Trafalgar Group Oct 25–28, 2020 1,088 (LV) ± 2.89% 50% 47% 2% - 1%[aa] 1%
Monmouth University Oct 24–28, 2020 509 (RV) ± 4.7% 45% 50% 1% 0% 1%[ab] 2%
509 (LV) 45%[ac] 51% - - – –
46%[ad] 50% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 14,571 (LV) – 50% 48% - - – –
Marist College/NBC Oct 25–27, 2020 743 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 51% - - 1% 1%
Quinnipiac University Oct 23–27, 2020 1,324 (LV) ± 2.7% 42% 45% - - 1%[ae] 11%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 21–27, 2020 704 (LV) ± 4.2% 47%[k] 48% 1% 1% 2%[af] –
47%[ag] 49% - - 3%[ah] 2%
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 605 (LV) ± 5.4% 51% 46% 2% 1% – –
YouGov/Institute of Politics at Florida State University Oct 16–26, 2020 1,200 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 48% - - – 6%
Wick Surveys Oct 24–25, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 47% - - – –
Florida Atlantic University Oct 24–25, 2020 937 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 50% - - 2%[ai] –
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] Oct 23–25, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 44% 2% - 3%[aj] 3%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 		Oct 17–25, 2020 743 (RV) ± 3.56% 46% 49% - - 2%[ak] 3%
Ryan Tyson (R) Released Oct 24, 2020 – (V)[al] – 47% 45% - - 3%[am] 4%
Gravis Marketing Oct 24, 2020 665 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 47% - - – 5%
YouGov/CBS Oct 20–23, 2020 1,228 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 50% - - 2%[an] 0%
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics Oct 21–22, 2020 2,527 (LV) ± 2% 47% 49% - - 2%[ao] 2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 20–22, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48%[k] 50% - - 1%[ap] 1%
46%[aq] 52% - - 1%[ar] 1%
48%[as] 46% - - 1%[at] 1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 20–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 46% - - 3%[au] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 14–21, 2020 662 (LV) ± 4.3% 46%[k] 51% 1% 0% 2%[av] –
46%[aw] 50% - - 1%[ax] 3%
Citizen Data Oct 17–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 50% 1% 0% 1% 4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 17–20, 2020 863 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 51% - - 1%[ay] 1%
CNN/SSRS Oct 15–20, 2020 847 (LV) ± 4% 46% 50% 1% 1% 0%[az] 1%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20, 2020 4,685 (LV) ± 1.4% 45% 52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Oct 16–19, 2020 547 (LV)[e] – 45% 50% - - – –
University of North Florida Oct 12–16, 2020 863 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 48% - - 1%[ba] 3%
HarrisX/The Hill[1] Oct 12–15, 2020 965 (LV) – 48% 48% - - – 4%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 7–14, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.4% 47%[k] 50% 0% 0% 2%[bb] –
47%[bc] 49% - - 1%[bd] 3%
Trafalgar Group Oct 11–13, 2020 1,051 (LV) ± 2.94% 48% 46% 2% 1% 1%[be] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 10–13, 2020 1,519 (LV) – 44%[e] 50% 1% 0% – –
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics Oct 11–12, 2020 2,215 (LV) ± 2.1% 47% 49% - - 1%[bf] 2%
Emerson College Oct 10–12, 2020 690 (LV) ± 3.7% 48%[bg] 51% - - 1%[bh] –
Mason-Dixon Oct 8–12, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4% 45% 48% - - 1%[bi] 6%
Clearview Research Oct 7–12, 2020 550 (LV) ± 4.18% 40%[k] 47% - - 4%[bj] 9%
39%[bk] 48% - - 4%[bl] 9%
41%[bm] 46% - - 4%[bn] 9%
Morning Consult Oct 2–11, 2020 4,785 (LV) ± 1.4% 46% 51% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 9–10, 2020 750 (LV) – 42%[e] 53% 1% 0% – –
Florida Atlantic University Oct 9–10, 2020 644 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 51% - - 2%[bo] –
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 4–8, 2020 800 (LV) – 46%[k] 48% 1% 1% 1% 4%
44%[bp] 50% 1% 1% 1% 4%
47%[bq] 46% 1% 1% 1% 4%
Insider Advantage/Hannity Exclusive (R) Oct 6–7, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 46% 1% - – 10%
YouGov/CCES Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 3,755 (LV) – 47% 49% - - – –
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 678 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 49% - - 1%[br] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 4–6, 2020 998 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 49% 1% 0% 1%[bs] 6%
Quinnipiac University Oct 1–5, 2020 1,256 (LV) ± 2.8% 40% 51% - - 1%[bt] 7%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 2–4, 2020 560 (LV) – 46% 50% - - – –
Suffolk University/USA Today[2] Oct 1–4, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45%[k] 45% 2% 0%[bu] 2%[bv] 6%
46%[bw] 45% - - 2%[bx] 7%
University of North Florida Oct 1–4, 2020 3,134 (LV) ± 1.8% 45% 51% - - 1%[by] 3%[bz]
St. Leo University Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 489 (LV) – 44% 50% - - – 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 710 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 47% 2% 1% 0%[ca] 8%[cb]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 12,962 (LV) – 47% 51% - - – 2%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce Sep 23–29, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 44%[e] 49% - - – –
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] Sep 23–26, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 46% 3% - – 8%[cc]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 23–25, 2020 1,073 (LV) ± 2.99% 43% 48% 1% 1% 1%[cd] 7%
St. Pete Polls Sep 21–22, 2020 2,906 (LV) ± 1.8% 47% 50% - - 2%[ce] 2%
Data For Progress[D] Sep 15–22, 2020 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% - - – 11%
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20, 2020 702 (LV) – 46% 49% - - – –
ABC/Washington Post Sep 15–20, 2020 613 (LV) ± 4.5% 51% 47% - - 1%[cf] 1%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[E] Sep 17–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 51% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Sep 15–18, 2020 1,205 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 48% - - 1%[cg] 5%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–17, 2020 586 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 47% - - 2%[ch] 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–14, 2020 1,158 (LV) ± 2.88% 44% 47% 1% 1% 1%[ci] 6%
Monmouth University Sep 10–13, 2020 428 (RV) ± 4.7% 45% 50% 2% 0% 1%[cj] 3%
428 (LV) 45%[ck] 50% - - 1%[cl] 3%
46%[cm] 49% - - 1%[cn] 3%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report Aug 29 – Sep 13, 2020 1,009 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 43% - - 4%[co] 11%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 11–12, 2020 631 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 50% - - 0%[cp] –
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics/AARP Sep 7–8, 2020 2,689 (LV) ± 1.9% 47% 50% - - 2%[cq] 2%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 30 – Sep 8, 2020 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 48% - - 2%[cr] 4%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 3,914 (LV) ± (2%-4%) 43%[cs] 50% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6, 2020 1,144 (LV) – 46% 49% - - 4%[ct] –
Marist College/NBC Aug 31 – Sep 5, 2020 760 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 48% - - 1% 2%
Trafalgar Group Sep 1–3, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 2% - 1%[cu] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2020 1,093 (LV) ± 2.96% 43% 48% 1% 1% 1%[cv] 6%
GQR Research (D) Aug 26 – Sep 3, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 51% - - – –
Quinnipiac Aug 28 – Sep 1, 2020 1,235 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 48% - - 1%[cw] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 12,286 (LV) – 50% 48% - - – 2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30, 2020 3,790 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 47% 49% - - – –
Opinium/The Guardian[3] Aug 21–26, 2020 684 (LV) – 43% 50% - - 1% 6%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23, 2020 1,262 (LV) – 46% 49% - - – –
PPP Aug 21–22, 2020 671 (V) ± 3.8% 44% 48% - - – 7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16, 2020 1,280 (LV) – 41% 49% 1% - 1%[cx] 7%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16, 2020 3,484 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 45% 50% - - – –
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[F] Aug 11–15, 2020 750 (LV) ± 4% 44% 46% 2% - 1%[cy] 6%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9, 2020 469 (LV) – 44% 50% - - – –
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[G] Aug 2–4, 2020 400 (LV) – 49% 49% - - – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 13,945 (LV) – 48% 49% - - – 2%
Change Research/CNBC[4] Jul 24–26, 2020 685 (LV) – 45% 48% - - – –
Morning Consult Jul 17–26, 2020 3,760 (LV) ± 1.6% 46%[cz] 49% - - – –
Morning Consult Jul 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[da] – 45% 49% - - – –
CNN/SSRS Jul 18–24, 2020 880 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 51% - - 2%[db] 2%
Zogby Analytics Jul 21–23, 2020 811 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 43% 3% 2% – 9%
Mason-Dixon Jul 20–23, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 50% - - – 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–21, 2020 1,121 (LV) – 41% 48% 1% 1% 1%[dc] 8%
Quinnipiac University Jul 16–20, 2020 924 (RV) ± 4.3% 38% 51% - - 6%[dd] 5%
Morning Consult Jul 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[de] – 45% 50% - - – –
Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete Polls Jul 13–14, 2020 3,018 (RV) ± 1.8% 44% 50% - - 2%[df] 3%
Gravis Marketing Jul 13, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 53% - - – 4%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12, 2020 1,128 (LV) – 43% 50% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Jul 7–10, 2020 1,206 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 48% - - 2%[dg] 8%
Morning Consult Jun 26 – Jul 5, 2020 – (LV)[dh] – 46% 49% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Jun 29 – Jul 2, 2020 1,072 (LV) ± 2.91% 46% 46% - - 5%[di] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 5,663 (LV) – 51% 47% - - – 2%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28, 2020 951 (LV)[e] – 45% 50% - - – –
Morning Consult Jun 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[dj] – 45% 49% - - – –
Fox News Jun 20–23, 2020 1,010 (RV) ± 3% 40% 49% - - 6%[dk] 6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Jun 8–18, 2020 651 (RV) ± 4.6% 41% 47% - - 4%[dl] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–15, 2020 1,079 (LV) ± 2.98% 41% 45% 1% 1% 1%[dm] 11%
Morning Consult Jun 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[dn] – 45% 50% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14, 2020 713 (LV)[e] – 43% 50% - - 3%[do] –
Gravis Marketing/OANN Released Jun 11, 2020 – (V)[dp] – 50% 50% - - – –
TIPP/American Greatness PAC[A] Jun 9–11, 2020 875 (LV) – 40% 51% - - 4%[dq] 5%
Morning Consult May 27 – Jun 5, 2020 – (LV)[dr] – 48% 47% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31, 2020 1,186 (LV)[e] – 45% 48% - - 2% 4%
Cygnal (R) May 18–30, 2020 881 (LV) ± 3.3% 43.8% 47% - - 3.3%[ds] 5.9%
St. Pete Polls May 26–27, 2020 4,763 (RV) ± 1.4% 46.7% 47.5% - - 2.7%[dt] 3.1%
Morning Consult May 17–26, 2020 3,593 (LV) – 48%[du] 47% - - – –
Morning Consult May 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[dv] – 48% 47% - - – –
Point Blank Political May 14–17, 2020 2,149 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 45% 1%[dw] <1%[dx] 2% 8%
Point Blank Political May 14–17, 2020 2,149 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% - - – –
Morning Consult May 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[dy] – 50% 45% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14, 2020 1,014 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 45% - - 3%[dz] 10%
Florida Atlantic University May 8–12, 2020 928 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 53% - - – –
Fox News Apr 18–21, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% - - 3% 7%
Quinnipiac University Apr 16–20, 2020 1,385 (RV) ± 2.6% 42% 46% - - 3% 7%
St. Pete Polls Apr 16–17, 2020 5,659 (RV) ± 1.3% 48% 48% - - – 4%
University of North Florida Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2020 3,244 (RV) ± 1.7% 40% 46% - - – 8%
AtlasIntel Mar 14–16, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 45% - - 10% –
Univision Mar 6–12, 2020 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 45% - - – 7%
Florida Atlantic University Mar 5–7, 2020 1,216 (RV) ± 2.7% 51% 49% - - – –
University of North Florida Feb, 2020 696 (LV) – 45% 45% - - – 10%[ea]
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 51% - - – 8%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 668 (RV) – 48% 49% - - – 3%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 51% - - – –
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 49% 45% - - – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% - - – 8%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 46% - - – –
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 48% - - 6%[eb] 3%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50.5% 49.5% - - – –
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 41% 50% - - 1% 6%
St. Pete Polls Jun 15–16, 2019 3,095 (LV) ± 1.8% 47% 47% - - – 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 50% - - – –
WPA Intelligence Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 48% 44% - - – 7%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 36% 52% – 12%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 672 (RV) – 44% 50% – 6%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 49% 44% – –

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 45% – 15%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 664 (RV) – 49% 45% – 7%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 50% 50% – –
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% – 6%
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 42% 7%[ec] 9%
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 44% 1% 9%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 41% 8%[ed] 7%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 52% 48% – –
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 47% – –

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 43% – 16%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 662 (RV) – 48% 44% – 8%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Mar 14–16, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 11% –
Univision Mar 6–12, 2020 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 42% – 8%
Florida Atlantic University Mar 5–7, 2020 1,216 (LV) ± 2.7% 53% 47% – –
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% – 11%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 671 (RV) – 48% 48% – 4%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 47% 53% – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 44% – 7%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% – –
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50.5% 49.5% – –
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 42% 48% 1% 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 49% – –

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 44% – 14%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 661 (RV) – 47% 47% – 6%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 51% – –
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% – 7%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 42% – –
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 46% 6%[ee] 6%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50% 50% – –
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 47% 1% 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 828 (LV) ± 3.4% 39% 48% – 14%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Oprah
Winfrey (D) 		Other Undecided
Dixie Strategies Jan 9–10, 2018 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 24% 15% 13%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] Jun 14–16, 2019 679 (V) ± 3.8% 44% 51% 6%
Mason-Dixon Jan 14–17, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9%

with Donald Trump and generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
Quinnipiac University Mar 6–11, 2019 1,058 (V) ± 3.7% 31% 51%[ef] 18%[eg]

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 49% 8%[eh] 5%

with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Undecided
St. Leo University Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 489 (LV) ± 3.0% 46.8% 46.7% 6.5%

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 46% 8%[ei] 6%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Florida[36]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		5,668,731 51.22% +2.20%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		5,297,045 47.86% +0.04%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		70,324 0.64% −1.56%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		14,721 0.13% −0.55%
Reform Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson 		5,966 0.05% −0.05%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman 		5,712 0.05% N/A
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		3,902 0.04% −0.13%
Write-in 1,055 0.01% -0.26%
Total votes 11,067,456 100.00%

By county

County Donald Trump

Republican

Joe Biden

Democratic

Jo Jorgensen

Libertarian

Howie Hawkins

Green

Rocky De La Fuente

Reform

Gloria La Riva

Socialism and Liberation

Don Blankenship

Constitution

Other Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Alachua 50,972 35.74% 89,704 62.90% 1,390 0.97% 302 0.21% 70 0.05% 94 0.07% 52 0.04% 20 0.01% -38,732 -27.16% 142,604
Baker 11,911 84.72% 2,037 14.49% 93 0.66% 10 0.07% 4 0.03% 3 0.02% 1 0.01% 0 0.00% 9,874 70.23% 14,059
Bay 66,097 71.05% 25,614 27.53% 1,004 1.08% 142 0.15% 54 0.06% 45 0.05% 52 0.06% 16 0.02% 40,483 43.52% 93,024
Bradford 10,334 75.81% 3,160 23.18% 110 0.81% 11 0.08% 7 0.05% 3 0.02% 6 0.04% 1 0.01% 7,174 52.63% 13,632
Brevard 207,883 57.62% 148,549 41.18% 3,178 0.88% 553 0.15% 222 0.06% 164 0.05% 171 0.05% 44 0.01% 59,334 16.45% 360,764
Broward 333,409 34.81% 618,752 64.61% 3,114 0.33% 1,253 0.13% 426 0.04% 417 0.04% 238 0.02% 63 0.01% -285,343 -29.80% 957,672
Calhoun 5,274 80.82% 1,209 18.53% 29 0.44% 4 0.06% 4 0.06% 4 0.06% 2 0.03% 0 0.00% 4,065 62.29% 6,526
Charlotte 73,243 62.96% 42,273 36.34% 565 0.49% 129 0.11% 49 0.04% 32 0.03% 45 0.04% 4 0.00% 30,970 26.62% 116,340
Citrus 65,352 70.11% 27,092 29.07% 548 0.59% 86 0.09% 42 0.05% 30 0.03% 49 0.05% 9 0.01% 38,260 41.05% 93,208
Clay 84,480 67.91% 38,317 30.80% 1,286 1.03% 153 0.12% 45 0.04% 55 0.04% 57 0.05% 12 0.01% 46,163 37.11% 124,405
Collier 128,950 62.05% 77,621 37.35% 889 0.43% 186 0.09% 64 0.03% 50 0.02% 39 0.02% 19 0.01% 51,329 24.70% 207,818
Columbia 23,836 72.14% 8,914 26.98% 224 0.68% 28 0.08% 12 0.04% 20 0.06% 8 0.02% 0 0.00% 14,922 45.16% 33,042
DeSoto 8,313 65.67% 4,259 33.64% 52 0.41% 8 0.06% 12 0.09% 11 0.09% 4 0.03% 0 0.00% 4,054 32.02% 12,659
Dixie 6,759 82.76% 1,365 16.71% 27 0.33% 5 0.06% 5 0.06% 2 0.02% 4 0.05% 0 0.00% 5,394 66.05% 8,167
Duval 233,762 47.43% 252,556 51.25% 4,788 0.97% 772 0.16% 319 0.06% 328 0.07% 218 0.04% 77 0.02% -18,794 -3.81% 492,820
Escambia 96,674 56.74% 70,929 41.63% 2,146 1.26% 256 0.15% 105 0.06% 137 0.08% 92 0.05% 33 0.02% 25,745 15.11% 170,372
Flagler 43,043 60.02% 28,161 39.27% 359 0.50% 69 0.10% 30 0.04% 29 0.04% 20 0.03% 5 0.01% 14,882 20.75% 71,716
Franklin 4,675 68.26% 2,120 30.95% 27 0.39% 12 0.18% 4 0.06% 8 0.12% 3 0.04% 0 0.00% 2,555 37.30% 6,849
Gadsden 7,465 31.42% 16,153 67.98% 96 0.40% 21 0.09% 8 0.03% 10 0.04% 9 0.04% 0 0.00% -8,688 -36.56% 23,762
Gilchrist 7,895 81.52% 1,700 17.55% 61 0.63% 13 0.13% 6 0.06% 2 0.02% 5 0.05% 3 0.03% 6,195 63.96% 9,685
Glades 3,782 72.83% 1,385 26.67% 21 0.40% 4 0.08% 0 0.00% 1 0.02% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 2,397 46.16% 5,193
Gulf 6,113 74.89% 1,985 24.32% 48 0.59% 5 0.06% 6 0.07% 0 0.00% 6 0.07% 0 0.00% 4,128 50.57% 8,163
Hamilton 3,815 65.44% 1,963 33.67% 33 0.57% 8 0.14% 6 0.10% 2 0.03% 2 0.03% 1 0.02% 1,852 31.77% 5,830
Hardee 6,122 72.15% 2,298 27.08% 40 0.47% 8 0.09% 10 0.12% 6 0.07% 1 0.01% 0 0.00% 3,824 45.07% 8,485
Hendry 7,906 61.10% 4,929 38.09% 65 0.50% 13 0.10% 11 0.09% 8 0.06% 7 0.05% 1 0.01% 2,977 23.01% 12,940
Hernando 70,412 64.64% 37,519 34.45% 686 0.63% 151 0.14% 62 0.06% 44 0.04% 40 0.04% 8 0.01% 32,893 30.20% 108,922
Highlands 34,873 66.84% 16,938 32.47% 223 0.43% 53 0.10% 28 0.05% 24 0.05% 28 0.05% 3 0.01% 17,935 34.38% 52,170
Hillsborough 327,398 45.98% 376,367 52.86% 5,665 0.80% 1,187 0.17% 574 0.08% 529 0.07% 270 0.04% 73 0.01% -48,969 -6.88% 712,063
Holmes 8,080 89.10% 924 10.19% 48 0.53% 9 0.10% 2 0.02% 1 0.01% 4 0.04% 0 0.00% 7,156 78.91% 9,068
Indian River 58,872 60.39% 37,844 38.82% 534 0.55% 117 0.12% 43 0.04% 33 0.03% 38 0.04% 3 0.00% 21,028 21.57% 97,484
Jackson 15,488 69.08% 6,766 30.18% 116 0.52% 13 0.06% 13 0.06% 13 0.06% 5 0.02% 5 0.02% 8,722 38.90% 22,419
Jefferson 4,479 53.00% 3,897 46.11% 46 0.54% 13 0.15% 4 0.05% 4 0.05% 5 0.06% 3 0.04% 582 6.89% 8,451
Lafayette 3,128 85.51% 510 13.94% 14 0.38% 2 0.05% 1 0.03% 1 0.03% 2 0.05% 0 0.00% 2,618 71.57% 3,658
Lake 125,859 59.56% 83,505 39.52% 1,385 0.66% 254 0.12% 120 0.06% 96 0.05% 79 0.04% 16 0.01% 42,354 20.04% 211,314
Lee 233,247 59.21% 157,695 40.03% 2,016 0.51% 440 0.11% 187 0.05% 176 0.04% 121 0.03% 17 0.00% 75,552 19.18% 393,899
Leon 57,453 35.26% 103,517 63.54% 1,344 0.82% 271 0.17% 98 0.06% 122 0.07% 71 0.04% 53 0.03% -46,064 -28.27% 162,929
Levy 16,749 72.37% 6,205 26.81% 131 0.57% 25 0.11% 14 0.06% 7 0.03% 13 0.06% 1 0.00% 10,544 45.56% 23,145
Liberty 2,846 79.92% 694 19.49% 14 0.39% 2 0.06% 2 0.06% 2 0.06% 1 0.03% 0 0.00% 2,152 60.43% 3,561
Madison 5,576 59.45% 3,747 39.95% 32 0.34% 13 0.14% 3 0.03% 4 0.04% 5 0.05% 0 0.00% 1,829 19.50% 9,380
Manatee 124,987 57.61% 90,166 41.56% 1,287 0.59% 258 0.12% 96 0.04% 78 0.04% 69 0.03% 17 0.01% 34,821 16.05% 216,958
Marion 127,826 62.54% 74,858 36.63% 1,180 0.58% 228 0.11% 91 0.04% 98 0.05% 80 0.04% 15 0.01% 52,968 25.92% 204,376
Martin 61,168 61.96% 36,893 37.37% 448 0.45% 105 0.11% 38 0.04% 35 0.04% 37 0.04% 2 0.00% 24,275 24.59% 98,726
Miami-Dade 532,833 46.06% 617,864 53.41% 3,329 0.29% 1,289 0.11% 602 0.05% 579 0.05% 293 0.03% 27 0.00% -85,031 -7.35% 1,156,816
Monroe 25,693 53.49% 21,881 45.56% 348 0.72% 51 0.11% 26 0.05% 14 0.03% 12 0.02% 4 0.01% 3,812 7.94% 48,029
Nassau 42,566 72.38% 15,564 26.46% 569 0.97% 43 0.07% 28 0.05% 12 0.02% 24 0.04% 5 0.01% 27,002 45.91% 58,811
Okaloosa 79,798 68.57% 34,248 29.43% 1,881 1.62% 183 0.16% 76 0.07% 73 0.06% 79 0.07% 35 0.03% 45,550 39.14% 116,373
Okeechobee 11,470 71.89% 4,390 27.52% 66 0.41% 7 0.04% 8 0.05% 4 0.03% 8 0.05% 1 0.01% 7,080 44.38% 15,954
Orange 245,398 37.90% 395,014 61.02% 4,685 0.72% 1,146 0.18% 386 0.06% 444 0.07% 223 0.03% 107 0.02% -149,616 -23.11% 647,403
Osceola 73,480 42.61% 97,297 56.42% 964 0.56% 290 0.17% 166 0.10% 140 0.08% 70 0.04% 29 0.02% -23,817 -13.81% 172,436
Palm Beach 334,711 43.29% 433,572 56.08% 3,040 0.39% 891 0.12% 356 0.05% 335 0.04% 188 0.02% 65 0.01% -98,861 -12.79% 773,158
Pasco 179,621 59.48% 119,073 39.43% 2,265 0.75% 467 0.15% 200 0.07% 169 0.06% 142 0.05% 33 0.01% 60,548 20.05% 301,970
Pinellas 276,209 49.35% 277,450 49.57% 4,268 0.76% 912 0.16% 305 0.05% 311 0.06% 199 0.04% 61 0.01% -1,241 -0.22% 559,715
Polk 194,586 56.69% 145,049 42.26% 2,595 0.76% 425 0.12% 204 0.06% 217 0.06% 140 0.04% 40 0.01% 49,537 14.43% 343,256
Putnam 25,514 70.15% 10,527 28.94% 226 0.62% 50 0.14% 14 0.04% 21 0.06% 20 0.05% 1 0.00% 14,987 41.20% 36,373
Santa Rosa 77,385 72.37% 27,612 25.82% 1,645 1.54% 122 0.11% 60 0.06% 46 0.04% 55 0.05% 3 0.00% 49,773 46.55% 106,928
Sarasota 148,370 54.84% 120,110 44.39% 1,507 0.56% 284 0.10% 102 0.04% 105 0.04% 70 0.03% 27 0.01% 28,260 10.44% 270,575
Seminole 125,241 48.02% 132,528 50.81% 2,215 0.85% 406 0.16% 135 0.05% 137 0.05% 103 0.04% 50 0.02% -7,287 -2.79% 260,815
St. Johns 110,946 62.82% 63,850 36.15% 1,413 0.80% 210 0.12% 101 0.06% 54 0.03% 44 0.02% 4 0.00% 47,096 26.66% 176,622
St. Lucie 86,831 50.43% 84,137 48.87% 768 0.45% 209 0.12% 71 0.04% 82 0.05% 61 0.04% 10 0.01% 2,694 1.56% 172,169
Sumter 62,761 67.86% 29,341 31.73% 269 0.29% 39 0.04% 25 0.03% 20 0.02% 29 0.03% 1 0.00% 33,420 36.14% 92,485
Suwannee 16,410 77.93% 4,485 21.30% 119 0.57% 23 0.11% 6 0.03% 8 0.04% 6 0.03% 0 0.00% 11,925 56.63% 21,057
Taylor 7,751 76.54% 2,299 22.70% 52 0.51% 11 0.11% 3 0.03% 6 0.06% 3 0.03% 2 0.02% 5,452 53.84% 10,127
Union 5,133 82.19% 1,053 16.86% 42 0.67% 5 0.08% 4 0.06% 3 0.05% 5 0.08% 0 0.00% 4,080 65.33% 6,245
Volusia 173,821 56.54% 130,575 42.47% 2,156 0.70% 390 0.13% 160 0.05% 173 0.06% 141 0.05% 23 0.01% 43,246 14.07% 307,439
Wakulla 12,874 69.95% 5,351 29.08% 135 0.73% 18 0.10% 10 0.05% 6 0.03% 10 0.05% 0 0.00% 7,523 40.88% 18,404
Walton 32,947 75.37% 10,338 23.65% 336 0.77% 43 0.10% 16 0.04% 15 0.03% 13 0.03% 3 0.01% 22,609 51.72% 43,711
Washington 9,876 80.12% 2,347 19.04% 69 0.56% 15 0.12% 5 0.04% 10 0.08% 5 0.04% 0 0.00% 7,529 61.08% 12,327
Totals 5,668,731 51.22% 5,297,045 47.86% 70,324 0.64% 14,721 0.13% 5,966 0.05% 5,712 0.05% 3,902 0.04% 1,055 0.05% 371,686 3.36% 11,067,456

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

District Trump Biden Representative

Ex-felons

United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex-crimes.[37] The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which was speculated to have created further problems for ex-felons when they voted in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.[38]

Miami-Dade County

In Miami-Dade County, the majority of Trump support came from the west and the majority of Biden support came from the east. People of Mexican, Haitian, and African descent tended to vote for Biden, while people of Cuban and Colombian descent did so for Trump.[39] Trump won approximately two thirds of the vote in Hialeah, whereas it was nearly evenly split four years prior.[40] Sabrina Rodriguez of Politico wrote "a vote for Trump has become about more than just him, or even the Republican Party. It’s about patriotism."[41] Due to the heavy presence of the Cuban-American community, Hialeah traditionally, as of 2020, leaned towards Republican politics.[42]

Residents of Cuban descent often had an antagonism against leftist movements due to associations with Fidel Castro.[43] Trump sought to attract these voters by implementing anti-Cuba policies.[44]

Additionally Trump made efforts to target other Hispanic demographics.[40]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The other five states were California, Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada, and New York, including Washington DC.
  2. ^ a b Candidate withdrew after Super Tuesday when early voting had begun in a few counties.
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  10. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  11. ^ a b c d e f g h i Standard VI response
  12. ^ West (B) with 1%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
  13. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  14. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  15. ^ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  16. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  17. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  18. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  19. ^ Includes "Refused"
  20. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  21. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  22. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  23. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  24. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  25. ^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
  26. ^ "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  27. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  28. ^ "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with 0%
  29. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  30. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  31. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  32. ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  33. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  34. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  35. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  36. ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  37. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  38. ^ Not yet released
  39. ^ "Refused" with 3%
  40. ^ "Other third party" with 2%
  41. ^ "Third Party" with 2%
  42. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  43. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  44. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  45. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  46. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  47. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  48. ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  49. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  50. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  51. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  52. ^ "Other" and "None of these" with 0%
  53. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  54. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  55. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  56. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  57. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  58. ^ "Third party" with 1%
  59. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  60. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  61. ^ "One of the other party or independent tickets" with 1%
  62. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  63. ^ Under a +2 Democratic turnout model
  64. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  65. ^ Under a conservative +2 Republican turnout model
  66. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  67. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  68. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  69. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  70. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  71. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  72. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  73. ^ No voters
  74. ^ "Refused" with 2%; La Riva (PSOL) with 1%; Blankenship (C), Fuente (A) and "other" with no voters
  75. ^ With the preferences of La Riva and Jorgensen voters in an election featuring only Biden and Trump
  76. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%
  77. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  78. ^ Includes "Refused"
  79. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  80. ^ Includes "Refused"
  81. ^ Includes "Refused"
  82. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  83. ^ "Third party" with 2%
  84. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "other" and would not vote with no voters
  85. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 1%
  86. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  87. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  88. ^ "No one" with 1%
  89. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  90. ^ "Other" with 1%
  91. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  92. ^ "Other" with 1%
  93. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
  94. ^ "Someone else" with 0%
  95. ^ "Third party" with 2%
  96. ^ Would not vote with 2%
  97. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  98. ^ "Other/not sure" with 4%
  99. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  100. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  101. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  102. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  103. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  104. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  105. ^ Not yet released
  106. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Neither" 1%
  107. ^ "Another third party/write-in" with 1%
  108. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  109. ^ Not yet released
  110. ^ "Third-party candidate" with 2%
  111. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  112. ^ Not yet released
  113. ^ "Other party candidate" with 5%
  114. ^ Not yet released
  115. ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  116. ^ "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  117. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  118. ^ Not yet released
  119. ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  120. ^ Not yet released
  121. ^ "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
  122. ^ Not yet released
  123. ^ "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
  124. ^ "Third party" with 2.7%
  125. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  126. ^ Not yet released
  127. ^ "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
  128. ^ "Green nominee" with 0.4%
  129. ^ Not yet released
  130. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  131. ^ Includes "Refused"
  132. ^ Wouldn't vote with 6%
  133. ^ Wouldn't vote with 7%
  134. ^ Wouldn't vote with 8%
  135. ^ Wouldn't vote with 6%
  136. ^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
  137. ^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
  138. ^ Wouldn't vote with 8%
  139. ^ Wouldn't vote with 8%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ^ Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  3. ^ Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  5. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. ^ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  7. ^ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  8. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters

References

  1. ^ November 3, 2020 General Election, Florida Department of State, Division of Elections.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Cruise ship hotels, zoo parties and an NBA arena: Miami's Democratic convention pitch". miamiherald. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
  5. ^ "City of Milwaukee 1 of 3 finalists to host 2020 Democratic National Convention". FOX6Now.com. June 20, 2018. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
  6. ^ Glauber, Bill (August 22, 2018). "Selection committee for 2020 Democratic Convention will visit Milwaukee next week". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
  7. ^ Haberman, Maggie (November 4, 2019). "Trump, Lifelong New Yorker, Declares Himself a Resident of Florida". The New York Times.
  8. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Goldmacher, Shane; Thrush, Glenn (November 4, 2020). "Big gains among Latinos in the Miami area power Trump to victory in Florida". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  9. ^ "Florida Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  10. ^ "Florida 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  11. ^ "Trump calls Biden a 'Trojan horse for socialism'". money.yahoo.com. Retrieved January 8, 2021.
  12. ^ "The Political Graveyard: Duval County, Fla". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
  13. ^ "The Political Graveyard: Seminole County, Fla". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
  14. ^ "March 17, 2020 Primary Election". Florida Department of State. Florida Division of Elections. March 31, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  15. ^ "Florida Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  16. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  17. ^ Zhou, Li (January 21, 2019). "Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign". Vox. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  18. ^ Detrow, Scott (February 1, 2019). "Cory Booker Makes It Official: He's Running For President In 2020". NPR. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  19. ^ "First Democratic Debate 2019: Highlights, candidates and more". NBC News.
  20. ^ "March 17, 2020 Primary Election: Democratic Primary". Florida Department of State Division of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  21. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  23. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  24. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  26. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  27. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  28. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  29. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  30. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  31. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  32. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  33. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  34. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  35. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  36. ^ "November 3, 2020 General Election Official Results". Florida Department of State. November 17, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  37. ^ "Initiative Information". Florida Division of Elections. Retrieved September 26, 2018.
  38. ^ https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/09/11/us/trump-vs-biden
  39. ^ Viteri, Amy; Torres, Andrea (November 6, 2020). "Presidential election: Here is why eastern Miami-Dade is celebrating and western Miami-Dade is not". Local 10 Miami. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  40. ^ a b Daugherty, Alex; Smiley, David; Padró Ocasio, Bianca; Wieder, Ben (November 6, 2020). "How non-Cuban Hispanics in Miami helped deliver Florida for Donald Trump". Miami Herald. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  41. ^ "Will flag-waving Latinos win Florida for Trump?". Politico. October 16, 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  42. ^ Smiley, David (September 21, 2020). "Why some Cuban-Americans in Florida are supporting Biden over Trump". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved October 20, 2020.
  43. ^ "Cuban Americans show strong support for Trump". University of Miami. October 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  44. ^ Gomez Licon, Adriana (October 30, 2020). "With salsa, caravans, Cubans make last push to reelect Trump". Associated Press. Retrieved November 8, 2020.

Further reading

Videos
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