Cook Partisan Voting Index
The Cook Partisan Voting Index (abbreviated CPVI or PVI) is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two Presidential elections.[1][2][a]
The index is updated after each election cycle. The Cook Political Report introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline.[4][5] The index is based on analysis by the Center for Voting and Democracy (now FairVote) for its July 1997 Monopoly Politics report.[6]
Calculation and format
PVIs are calculated by comparing a congressional district's average Democratic or Republican Party share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the national average share for those elections. For example, the national average for 2004 and 2008 was 51.2% Democratic to 48.8% Republican.[4] In Alaska's at-large congressional district, the Republican candidate won 63% and 61% of the two-party share in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, respectively. Comparing the average of these two district results (62%) against the average national share (48.8%), this district voted 13.2 percentage points more Republican than the country as a whole, or R+13.[7]
Prior to its April 2009 update, the PVI formula compared district-level results for the past two presidential elections to nationwide results for only the most recent election. Since then, local elections are compared to synchronic national elections.[8][better source needed]
The Cook PVI is displayed as a letter, a plus sign, and a number. The letter (either a D for Democratic or an R for Republican) reflects the major party toward which the district (or state) leans. The number reflects the strength of that partisan preference in rounded percentage points. A district or state that "performed within half a point of the national average in either direction" is designated as "EVEN".[5]
By congressional district
The PVIs for congressional districts are calculated based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.[5] The party representations are based on the results for the most recent election in that district for the 117th Congress. The District of Columbia's at-large congressional district, represented by a non-voting delegate, is ranked by Cook PVI, as it participates in presidential elections – its PVI is D+43.[5] Territorial districts are not ranked on the Cook PVI, as they do not participate in presidential elections.
As of 2021[update], in the House, there are 226 districts more Republican than the national average, and 203 districts more Democratic than the national average.[5] The number of swing seats, defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is 78.[5]
| District | PVI | Party of representative |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama 1 | R+16 | Republican |
| Alabama 2 | R+17 | Republican |
| Alabama 3 | R+18 | Republican |
| Alabama 4 | R+34 | Republican |
| Alabama 5 | R+17 | Republican |
| Alabama 6 | R+22 | Republican |
| Alabama 7 | D+19 | Democratic |
| Alaska at-large | R+9 | Republican |
| Arizona 1 | R+2 | Democratic |
| Arizona 2 | D+2 | Democratic |
| Arizona 3 | D+13 | Democratic |
| Arizona 4 | R+22 | Republican |
| Arizona 5 | R+11 | Republican |
| Arizona 6 | R+5 | Republican |
| Arizona 7 | D+24 | Democratic |
| Arizona 8 | R+11 | Republican |
| Arizona 9 | D+9 | Democratic |
| Arkansas 1 | R+21 | Republican |
| Arkansas 2 | R+7 | Republican |
| Arkansas 3 | R+17 | Republican |
| Arkansas 4 | R+20 | Republican |
| California 1 | R+11 | Republican |
| California 2 | D+23 | Democratic |
| California 3 | D+5 | Democratic |
| California 4 | R+8 | Republican |
| California 5 | D+22 | Democratic |
| California 6 | D+21 | Democratic |
| California 7 | D+5 | Democratic |
| California 8 | R+8 | Republican |
| California 9 | D+8 | Democratic |
| California 10 | EVEN | Democratic |
| California 11 | D+24 | Democratic |
| California 12 | D+38 | Democratic |
| California 13 | D+40 | Democratic |
| California 14 | D+28 | Democratic |
| California 15 | D+22 | Democratic |
| California 16 | D+9 | Democratic |
| California 17 | D+24 | Democratic |
| California 18 | D+27 | Democratic |
| California 19 | D+23 | Democratic |
| California 20 | D+23 | Democratic |
| California 21 | D+5 | Republican |
| California 22 | R+6 | Republican |
| California 23 | R+12 | Republican |
| California 24 | D+10 | Democratic |
| California 25 | D+3 | Republican |
| California 26 | D+10 | Democratic |
| California 27 | D+18 | Democratic |
| California 28 | D+23 | Democratic |
| California 29 | D+27 | Democratic |
| California 30 | D+20 | Democratic |
| California 31 | D+9 | Democratic |
| California 32 | D+17 | Democratic |
| California 33 | D+19 | Democratic |
| California 34 | D+34 | Democratic |
| California 35 | D+17 | Democratic |
| California 36 | D+4 | Democratic |
| California 37 | D+36 | Democratic |
| California 38 | D+17 | Democratic |
| California 39 | D+3 | Republican |
| California 40 | D+31 | Democratic |
| California 41 | D+12 | Democratic |
| California 42 | R+7 | Republican |
| California 43 | D+29 | Democratic |
| California 44 | D+32 | Democratic |
| California 45 | D+3 | Democratic |
| California 46 | D+16 | Democratic |
| California 47 | D+14 | Democratic |
| California 48 | R+1 | Republican |
| California 49 | D+4 | Democratic |
| California 50 | R+8 | Republican |
| California 51 | D+20 | Democratic |
| California 52 | D+12 | Democratic |
| California 53 | D+17 | Democratic |
| Colorado 1 | D+24 | Democratic |
| Colorado 2 | D+12 | Democratic |
| Colorado 3 | R+6 | Republican |
| Colorado 4 | R+12 | Republican |
| Colorado 5 | R+12 | Republican |
| Colorado 6 | D+6 | Democratic |
| Colorado 7 | D+7 | Democratic |
| Connecticut 1 | D+11 | Democratic |
| Connecticut 2 | D+2 | Democratic |
| Connecticut 3 | D+8 | Democratic |
| Connecticut 4 | D+12 | Democratic |
| Connecticut 5 | D+2 | Democratic |
| Delaware at-large | D+6 | Democratic |
| Florida 1 | R+20 | Republican |
| Florida 2 | R+20 | Republican |
| Florida 3 | R+9 | Republican |
| Florida 4 | R+14 | Republican |
| Florida 5 | D+12 | Democratic |
| Florida 6 | R+10 | Republican |
| Florida 7 | D+3 | Democratic |
| Florida 8 | R+12 | Republican |
| Florida 9 | D+3 | Democratic |
| Florida 10 | D+12 | Democratic |
| Florida 11 | R+18 | Republican |
| Florida 12 | R+11 | Republican |
| Florida 13 | EVEN | Democratic |
| Florida 14 | D+7 | Democratic |
| Florida 15 | R+6 | Republican |
| Florida 16 | R+7 | Republican |
| Florida 17 | R+16 | Republican |
| Florida 18 | R+6 | Republican |
| Florida 19 | R+12 | Republican |
| Florida 20 | D+28 | Democratic |
| Florida 21 | D+8 | Democratic |
| Florida 22 | D+6 | Democratic |
| Florida 23 | D+9 | Democratic |
| Florida 24 | D+28 | Democratic |
| Florida 25 | R+8 | Republican |
| Florida 26 | D+1 | Republican |
| Florida 27 | D+4 | Republican |
| Georgia 1 | R+9 | Republican |
| Georgia 2 | D+4 | Democratic |
| Georgia 3 | R+16 | Republican |
| Georgia 4 | D+27 | Democratic |
| Georgia 5 | D+36 | Democratic |
| Georgia 6 | D+1 | Democratic |
| Georgia 7 | R+2 | Democratic |
| Georgia 8 | R+15 | Republican |
| Georgia 9 | R+30 | Republican |
| Georgia 10 | R+13 | Republican |
| Georgia 11 | R+12 | Republican |
| Georgia 12 | R+9 | Republican |
| Georgia 13 | D+23 | Democratic |
| Georgia 14 | R+28 | Republican |
| Hawaii 1 | D+14 | Democratic |
| Hawaii 2 | D+15 | Democratic |
| Idaho 1 | R+22 | Republican |
| Idaho 2 | R+15 | Republican |
| Illinois 1 | D+25 | Democratic |
| Illinois 2 | D+28 | Democratic |
| Illinois 3 | D+6 | Democratic |
| Illinois 4 | D+33 | Democratic |
| Illinois 5 | D+22 | Democratic |
| Illinois 6 | D+3 | Democratic |
| Illinois 7 | D+37 | Democratic |
| Illinois 8 | D+9 | Democratic |
| Illinois 9 | D+21 | Democratic |
| Illinois 10 | D+14 | Democratic |
| Illinois 11 | D+11 | Democratic |
| Illinois 12 | R+9 | Republican |
| Illinois 13 | R+4 | Republican |
| Illinois 14 | R+2 | Democratic |
| Illinois 15 | R+26 | Republican |
| Illinois 16 | R+10 | Republican |
| Illinois 17 | R+2 | Democratic |
| Illinois 18 | R+15 | Republican |
| Indiana 1 | D+4 | Democratic |
| Indiana 2 | R+13 | Republican |
| Indiana 3 | R+19 | Republican |
| Indiana 4 | R+18 | Republican |
| Indiana 5 | R+5 | Republican |
| Indiana 6 | R+22 | Republican |
| Indiana 7 | D+11 | Democratic |
| Indiana 8 | R+19 | Republican |
| Indiana 9 | R+15 | Republican |
| Iowa 1 | R+4 | Republican |
| Iowa 2 | R+4 | Republican |
| Iowa 3 | R+3 | Democratic |
| Iowa 4 | R+16 | Republican |
| Kansas 1 | R+24 | Republican |
| Kansas 2 | R+10 | Republican |
| Kansas 3 | D+1 | Democratic |
| Kansas 4 | R+15 | Republican |
| Kentucky 1 | R+26 | Republican |
| Kentucky 2 | R+22 | Republican |
| Kentucky 3 | D+8 | Democratic |
| Kentucky 4 | R+19 | Republican |
| Kentucky 5 | R+33 | Republican |
| Kentucky 6 | R+8 | Republican |
| Louisiana 1 | R+22 | Republican |
| Louisiana 2 | D+25 | Democratic |
| Louisiana 3 | R+21 | Republican |
| Louisiana 4 | R+14 | Republican |
| Louisiana 5 | R+17 | Republican |
| Louisiana 6 | R+18 | Republican |
| Maine 1 | D+8 | Democratic |
| Maine 2 | R+6 | Democratic |
| Maryland 1 | R+14 | Republican |
| Maryland 2 | D+13 | Democratic |
| Maryland 3 | D+16 | Democratic |
| Maryland 4 | D+29 | Democratic |
| Maryland 5 | D+16 | Democratic |
| Maryland 6 | D+8 | Democratic |
| Maryland 7 | D+27 | Democratic |
| Maryland 8 | D+17 | Democratic |
| Massachusetts 1 | D+10 | Democratic |
| Massachusetts 2 | D+10 | Democratic |
| Massachusetts 3 | D+12 | Democratic |
| Massachusetts 4 | D+13 | Democratic |
| Massachusetts 5 | D+23 | Democratic |
| Massachusetts 6 | D+10 | Democratic |
| Massachusetts 7 | D+35 | Democratic |
| Massachusetts 8 | D+14 | Democratic |
| Massachusetts 9 | D+6 | Democratic |
| Michigan 1 | R+12 | Republican |
| Michigan 2 | R+9 | Republican |
| Michigan 3 | R+5 | Republican |
| Michigan 4 | R+14 | Republican |
| Michigan 5 | D+1 | Democratic |
| Michigan 6 | R+5 | Republican |
| Michigan 7 | R+10 | Republican |
| Michigan 8 | R+4 | Democratic |
| Michigan 9 | D+4 | Democratic |
| Michigan 10 | R+18 | Republican |
| Michigan 11 | R+2 | Democratic |
| Michigan 12 | D+13 | Democratic |
| Michigan 13 | D+29 | Democratic |
| Michigan 14 | D+29 | Democratic |
| Minnesota 1 | R+8 | Republican |
| Minnesota 2 | EVEN | Democratic |
| Minnesota 3 | D+6 | Democratic |
| Minnesota 4 | D+16 | Democratic |
| Minnesota 5 | D+29 | Democratic |
| Minnesota 6 | R+14 | Republican |
| Minnesota 7 | R+17 | Republican |
| Minnesota 8 | R+10 | Republican |
| Mississippi 1 | R+18 | Republican |
| Mississippi 2 | D+13 | Democratic |
| Mississippi 3 | R+13 | Republican |
| Mississippi 4 | R+22 | Republican |
| Missouri 1 | D+29 | Democratic |
| Missouri 2 | R+4 | Republican |
| Missouri 3 | R+21 | Republican |
| Missouri 4 | R+20 | Republican |
| Missouri 5 | D+7 | Democratic |
| Missouri 6 | R+18 | Republican |
| Missouri 7 | R+24 | Republican |
| Missouri 8 | R+30 | Republican |
| Montana at-large | R+11 | Republican |
| Nebraska 1 | R+11 | Republican |
| Nebraska 2 | R+1 | Republican |
| Nebraska 3 | R+30 | Republican |
| Nevada 1 | D+12 | Democratic |
| Nevada 2 | R+8 | Republican |
| Nevada 3 | R+2 | Democratic |
| Nevada 4 | D+1 | Democratic |
| New Hampshire 1 | R+1 | Democratic |
| New Hampshire 2 | D+1 | Democratic |
| New Jersey 1 | D+11 | Democratic |
| New Jersey 2 | R+4 | Republican |
| New Jersey 3 | R+3 | Democratic |
| New Jersey 4 | R+8 | Republican |
| New Jersey 5 | R+1 | Democratic |
| New Jersey 6 | D+6 | Democratic |
| New Jersey 7 | D+1 | Democratic |
| New Jersey 8 | D+24 | Democratic |
| New Jersey 9 | D+13 | Democratic |
| New Jersey 10 | D+34 | Democratic |
| New Jersey 11 | EVEN | Democratic |
| New Jersey 12 | D+16 | Democratic |
| New Mexico 1 | D+9 | Democratic |
| New Mexico 2 | R+8 | Republican |
| New Mexico 3 | D+7 | Democratic |
| New York 1 | R+6 | Republican |
| New York 2 | R+5 | Republican |
| New York 3 | D+3 | Democratic |
| New York 4 | D+4 | Democratic |
| New York 5 | D+34 | Democratic |
| New York 6 | D+13 | Democratic |
| New York 7 | D+34 | Democratic |
| New York 8 | D+33 | Democratic |
| New York 9 | D+32 | Democratic |
| New York 10 | D+27 | Democratic |
| New York 11 | R+7 | Republican |
| New York 12 | D+34 | Democratic |
| New York 13 | D+40 | Democratic |
| New York 14 | D+25 | Democratic |
| New York 15 | D+39 | Democratic |
| New York 16 | D+25 | Democratic |
| New York 17 | D+9 | Democratic |
| New York 18 | R+1 | Democratic |
| New York 19 | R+3 | Democratic |
| New York 20 | D+7 | Democratic |
| New York 21 | R+8 | Republican |
| New York 22 | R+9 | Republican |
| New York 23 | R+9 | Republican |
| New York 24 | D+2 | Republican |
| New York 25 | D+8 | Democratic |
| New York 26 | D+10 | Democratic |
| New York 27 | R+12 | Republican |
| North Carolina 1 | D+3 | Democratic |
| North Carolina 2 | D+12 | Democratic |
| North Carolina 3 | R+14 | Republican |
| North Carolina 4 | D+16 | Democratic |
| North Carolina 5 | R+20 | Republican |
| North Carolina 6 | D+10 | Democratic |
| North Carolina 7 | R+11 | Republican |
| North Carolina 8 | R+6 | Republican |
| North Carolina 9 | R+6 | Republican |
| North Carolina 10 | R+21 | Republican |
| North Carolina 11 | R+9 | Republican |
| North Carolina 12 | D+19 | Democratic |
| North Carolina 13 | R+20 | Republican |
| North Dakota at-large | R+20 | Republican |
| Ohio 1 | R+4 | Republican |
| Ohio 2 | R+9 | Republican |
| Ohio 3 | D+19 | Democratic |
| Ohio 4 | R+20 | Republican |
| Ohio 5 | R+15 | Republican |
| Ohio 6 | R+24 | Republican |
| Ohio 7 | R+18 | Republican |
| Ohio 8 | R+19 | Republican |
| Ohio 9 | D+9 | Democratic |
| Ohio 10 | R+5 | Republican |
| Ohio 11 | D+30 | Democratic |
| Ohio 12 | R+6 | Republican |
| Ohio 13 | D+1 | Democratic |
| Ohio 14 | R+5 | Republican |
| Ohio 15 | R+7 | Republican |
| Ohio 16 | R+10 | Republican |
| Oklahoma 1 | R+15 | Republican |
| Oklahoma 2 | R+29 | Republican |
| Oklahoma 3 | R+29 | Republican |
| Oklahoma 4 | R+20 | Republican |
| Oklahoma 5 | R+7 | Republican |
| Oregon 1 | D+12 | Democratic |
| Oregon 2 | R+11 | Republican |
| Oregon 3 | D+24 | Democratic |
| Oregon 4 | R+1 | Democratic |
| Oregon 5 | D+2 | Democratic |
| Pennsylvania 1 | EVEN | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 2 | D+21 | Democratic |
| Pennsylvania 3 | D+41 | Democratic |
| Pennsylvania 4 | D+9 | Democratic |
| Pennsylvania 5 | D+13 | Democratic |
| Pennsylvania 6 | D+5 | Democratic |
| Pennsylvania 7 | EVEN | Democratic |
| Pennsylvania 8 | R+5 | Democratic |
| Pennsylvania 9 | R+18 | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 10 | R+5 | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 11 | R+14 | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 12 | R+20 | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 13 | R+25 | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 14 | R+16 | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 15 | R+24 | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 16 | R+12 | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 17 | R+2 | Democratic |
| Pennsylvania 18 | D+13 | Democratic |
| Rhode Island 1 | D+12 | Democratic |
| Rhode Island 2 | D+4 | Democratic |
| South Carolina 1 | R+7 | Republican |
| South Carolina 2 | R+9 | Republican |
| South Carolina 3 | R+21 | Republican |
| South Carolina 4 | R+14 | Republican |
| South Carolina 5 | R+11 | Republican |
| South Carolina 6 | D+17 | Democratic |
| South Carolina 7 | R+11 | Republican |
| South Dakota at-large | R+16 | Republican |
| Tennessee 1 | R+30 | Republican |
| Tennessee 2 | R+18 | Republican |
| Tennessee 3 | R+19 | Republican |
| Tennessee 4 | R+22 | Republican |
| Tennessee 5 | D+9 | Democratic |
| Tennessee 6 | R+26 | Republican |
| Tennessee 7 | R+21 | Republican |
| Tennessee 8 | R+19 | Republican |
| Tennessee 9 | D+28 | Democratic |
| Texas 1 | R+25 | Republican |
| Texas 2 | R+4 | Republican |
| Texas 3 | R+6 | Republican |
| Texas 4 | R+28 | Republican |
| Texas 5 | R+15 | Republican |
| Texas 6 | R+6 | Republican |
| Texas 7 | D+1 | Democratic |
| Texas 8 | R+25 | Republican |
| Texas 9 | D+27 | Democratic |
| Texas 10 | R+5 | Republican |
| Texas 11 | R+32 | Republican |
| Texas 12 | R+15 | Republican |
| Texas 13 | R+33 | Republican |
| Texas 14 | R+12 | Republican |
| Texas 15 | D+3 | Democratic |
| Texas 16 | D+18 | Democratic |
| Texas 17 | R+9 | Republican |
| Texas 18 | D+26 | Democratic |
| Texas 19 | R+26 | Republican |
| Texas 20 | D+13 | Democratic |
| Texas 21 | R+5 | Republican |
| Texas 22 | R+4 | Republican |
| Texas 23 | R+1 | Republican |
| Texas 24 | R+2 | Republican |
| Texas 25 | R+8 | Republican |
| Texas 26 | R+12 | Republican |
| Texas 27 | R+14 | Republican |
| Texas 28 | D+5 | Democratic |
| Texas 29 | D+19 | Democratic |
| Texas 30 | D+29 | Democratic |
| Texas 31 | R+6 | Republican |
| Texas 32 | D+1 | Democratic |
| Texas 33 | D+23 | Democratic |
| Texas 34 | D+5 | Democratic |
| Texas 35 | D+17 | Democratic |
| Texas 36 | R+25 | Republican |
| Utah 1 | R+20 | Republican |
| Utah 2 | R+10 | Republican |
| Utah 3 | R+17 | Republican |
| Utah 4 | R+6 | Republican |
| Vermont at-large | D+15 | Democratic |
| Virginia 1 | R+6 | Republican |
| Virginia 2 | R+1 | Democratic |
| Virginia 3 | D+16 | Democratic |
| Virginia 4 | D+10 | Democratic |
| Virginia 5 | R+7 | Republican |
| Virginia 6 | R+14 | Republican |
| Virginia 7 | R+3 | Democratic |
| Virginia 8 | D+27 | Democratic |
| Virginia 9 | R+23 | Republican |
| Virginia 10 | D+6 | Democratic |
| Virginia 11 | D+19 | Democratic |
| Washington 1 | D+8 | Democratic |
| Washington 2 | D+11 | Democratic |
| Washington 3 | R+5 | Republican |
| Washington 4 | R+13 | Republican |
| Washington 5 | R+8 | Republican |
| Washington 6 | D+6 | Democratic |
| Washington 7 | D+36 | Democratic |
| Washington 8 | D+1 | Democratic |
| Washington 9 | D+23 | Democratic |
| Washington 10 | D+5 | Democratic |
| West Virginia 1 | R+22 | Republican |
| West Virginia 2 | R+20 | Republican |
| West Virginia 3 | R+27 | Republican |
| Wisconsin 1 | R+7 | Republican |
| Wisconsin 2 | D+18 | Democratic |
| Wisconsin 3 | R+4 | Democratic |
| Wisconsin 4 | D+25 | Democratic |
| Wisconsin 5 | R+11 | Republican |
| Wisconsin 6 | R+10 | Republican |
| Wisconsin 7 | R+12 | Republican |
| Wisconsin 8 | R+10 | Republican |
| Wyoming at-large | R+26 | Republican |
By state
The PVIs for states are calculated based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential election.[5] The table below reflects the current state of Congress, based on the most recent election results, as of April 2021[update].
| State | PVI | Party of governor |
Party in Senate |
House balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | R+15 | Republican | Republican | 6R, 1D |
| Alaska | R+9 | Republican | Republican | 1R |
| Arizona | R+3 | Republican | Democratic | 5D, 4R |
| Arkansas | R+16 | Republican | Republican | 4R |
| California | D+14 | Democratic | Democratic | 42D, 11R |
| Colorado | D+3 | Democratic | Democratic | 4D, 3R |
| Connecticut | D+7 | Democratic | Democratic | 5D |
| Delaware | D+6 | Democratic | Democratic | 1D |
| Florida | R+3 | Republican | Republican | 16R, 11D |
| Georgia | R+3 | Republican | Democratic | 8R, 6D |
| Hawaii | D+15 | Democratic | Democratic | 2D |
| Idaho | R+19 | Republican | Republican | 2R |
| Illinois | D+7 | Democratic | Democratic | 13D, 5R |
| Indiana | R+11 | Republican | Republican | 7R, 2D |
| Iowa | R+6 | Republican | Republican | 3R, 1D |
| Kansas | R+11 | Democratic | Republican | 3R, 1D |
| Kentucky | R+16 | Democratic | Republican | 5R, 1D |
| Louisiana | R+12 | Democratic | Republican | 5R, 1D |
| Maine | D+1 | Democratic | Both* | 2D |
| Maryland | D+14 | Republican | Democratic | 7D, 1R |
| Massachusetts | D+14 | Republican | Democratic | 9D |
| Michigan | R+1 | Democratic | Democratic | 7D, 7R |
| Minnesota | D+1 | Democratic | Democratic | 4D, 4R |
| Mississippi | R+10 | Republican | Republican | 3R, 1D |
| Missouri | R+11 | Republican | Republican | 6R, 2D |
| Montana | R+11 | Republican | Both | 1R |
| Nebraska | R+13 | Republican | Republican | 3R |
| Nevada | EVEN | Democratic | Democratic | 3D, 1R |
| New Hampshire | EVEN | Republican | Democratic | 2D |
| New Jersey | D+6 | Democratic | Democratic | 10D, 2R |
| New Mexico | D+3 | Democratic | Democratic | 2D, 1R |
| New York | D+10 | Democratic | Democratic | 19D, 8R |
| North Carolina | R+3 | Democratic | Republican | 8R, 5D |
| North Dakota | R+20 | Republican | Republican | 1R |
| Ohio | R+6 | Republican | Both | 12R, 4D |
| Oklahoma | R+20 | Republican | Republican | 5R |
| Oregon | D+6 | Democratic | Democratic | 4D, 1R |
| Pennsylvania | R+2 | Democratic | Both | 9D, 9R |
| Rhode Island | D+8 | Democratic | Democratic | 2D |
| South Carolina | R+8 | Republican | Republican | 6R, 1D |
| South Dakota | R+16 | Republican | Republican | 1R |
| Tennessee | R+14 | Republican | Republican | 7R, 2D |
| Texas | R+5 | Republican | Republican | 23R, 13D |
| Utah | R+13 | Republican | Republican | 4R |
| Vermont | D+15 | Republican | Democratic* | 1D |
| Virginia | D+2 | Democratic | Democratic | 7D, 4R |
| Washington | D+8 | Democratic | Democratic | 7D, 3R |
| West Virginia | R+23 | Republican | Both | 3R |
| Wisconsin | R+2 | Democratic | Both | 5R, 3D |
| Wyoming | R+26 | Republican | Republican | 1R
|
* Includes an independent senator who caucuses with the Democrats.
Extremes and trends
The most Democratic congressional district in the country is Pennsylvania’s 3rd, located in West Philadelphia, with a PVI of D+41.[5] The most Republican district is Alabama’s 4th, based in North Alabama, at R+34.[5] In terms of states as a whole, Wyoming is the most Republican at R+26, and Hawaii and Vermont are the most Democratic at D+15.[5]
In the Senate, the most Republican-leaning state to have a Democratic senator is West Virginia (R+23 PVI), represented by Joe Manchin. The least Democratic-leaning states to have two Democratic senators are Arizona (R+3 PVI), represented by Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly, and Georgia (R+3 PVI), represented by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. The most Democratic-leaning state to have a Republican senator is Maine (D+1 PVI), with Susan Collins. The least Republican-leaning states to have two Republican senators are Florida (R+3 PVI), represented by Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, and North Carolina (R+3 PVI), represented by Richard Burr and Thom Tillis. However, all four of those states voted for the same party's presidential candidate as their senators in 2020.
In the House, the most Democratic-leaning congressional district represented by a Republican is California’s 21st, with a PVI of D+5, the district is represented by David Valadao, who is one of only six Republicans to represent a Democratic-leaning House district. The most Republican-leaning congressional district represented by a Democrat is Maine’s 2nd with a PVI of R+6, it is represented by Jared Golden. Following the 2020 elections, there were 17 Republican-leaning House districts represented by Democrats. The most Democratic-leaning district relative to its state is Pennsylvania's 3rd, with a PVI of D+41 in a state with a PVI of R+2 (a 43 point swing).
See also
- Political party strength in U.S. states
- Psephology, the statistical analysis of elections
- Two-party-preferred vote
Footnotes
- ^ “Essentially, the Cook PVI uses national and state results from the last two presidential elections to calculate how each state leans relative to the country as a whole. For example, if a Democratic presidential candidate won the popular vote nationally by five points, he or she might win a D+2 state (which leans two points toward Democrats) by seven points. And if a Republican won the popular vote by three points, he or she might win a D+2 state by one point.” — D. Byler (2016)[3]
References
- ^ Cillizza, Chris (March 14, 2018). "The differences between real grassroots and 'Astroturf' matter". CNN. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
Which brings me to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index or PVI. The goal of the PVI is to compare every congressional district to every other congressional district based on how it has performed in each of the last two presidential elections.
- ^ Benen, Steve (February 7, 2017). "There are 119 Republican House members who should be VERY nervous today". MSNBC. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
To get a sense of a congressional district's political leanings, there's a helpful metric called the Partisan Voter Index, or PVI, created 20 years ago by the Cook Political Report.
- ^ Byler, David (October 7, 2016). "Trump trades traditional Republicans for swing-state voters". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
- ^ a b Wasserman, David (October 11, 2012). "Introducing the 2012 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on May 4, 2013. Retrieved November 17, 2012.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (April 15, 2021). "Introducing the 2021 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 15, 2021.
- ^ "Monopoly Politics". fairvote.org. Center for Voting and Democracy. July 1997. Retrieved November 17, 2012.
- ^ "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 29, 2013. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
- ^ Nir, David (February 6, 2009). "Swing State Project:: A Look at the Cook Political Report's Partisan Vote Index (PVI)". Swing State Project. Archived from the original on February 24, 2009. Retrieved August 5, 2017.