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2021 Senedd election

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2021 Senedd election
← 2016 6 May 2021
All 60 seats to Senedd Cymru – Welsh Parliament
31 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Blank
Blank
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Leader Mark Drakeford Adam Price Andrew RT Davies
Party Labour Plaid Cymru Conservative
Leader since 6 December 2018 28 September 2018 24 January 2021[1]
Leader's seat Cardiff West Carmarthen East and Dinefwr South Wales Central
Last election 29 seats 12 seats 11 seats
Current seats 29 10 10
Seats needed Increase2 Increase21 Increase21
 
Blank
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Leader Richard Suchorzewski Neil Hamilton Jane Dodds
Party Abolish UKIP Liberal Democrats
Leader since 11 June 2020 26 September 2016 3 November 2017
Leader's seat not an MS[a] Mid and West Wales not an MS[c]
Last election 0 seats 7 seats 1 seat
Current seats 1[b] 1 1
Seats needed Increase30 Increase30 Increase30
 
Blank
Leader Neil McEvoy
Party Propel
Leader since 15 January 2020
Leader's seat South Wales Central
Last election New party
Current seats 1[d]
Seats needed Increase30
The left side shows the constituencies in the election. The right side shows regions in the election.
Incumbent First Minister

Mark Drakeford
Labour



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Represented in the Senedd

The 2021 Senedd election is currenly taking place as of Thursday 6 May 2021[2] to elect 60 members to Senedd Cymru – the Welsh Parliament. It will be the sixth general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. The election is due to be held alongside the UK local elections, London Assembly election, and Scottish Parliament election.

It will be the first election in which 16 and 17 year olds and legally resident foreign nationals are allowed to vote in Wales, the largest extension of the franchise in Wales since 1969. Both changes were a result of the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020.[3]

Five parties had Members of the Senedd (MSs, formerly Assembly Members – AMs) elected at the last election: Welsh Labour, the Welsh Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, the UK Independence Party (UKIP), and the Welsh Liberal Democrats. Seven political parties are currently represented in the Senedd. These are the five aforementioned parties and two parties that gained MSs who were elected for – and moved from – other political parties. The Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party gained two MSs who were elected for UKIP in 2016, and Propel (previously the Welsh Nation Party) gained an MS elected for Plaid Cymru in 2016.

Electoral system

Main article: Mixed-Member Proportional
Main article: Additional Member System

In elections for the Senedd, using the additional member system, each voter has two votes. The first vote is for a member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

Under the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency and a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning a Member of the Senedd cannot also be an MP.

This will be the first election where 16 and 17 year olds can vote, following the enactment of Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act in January 2020.[3]

Everyone seeking to vote in the election must have registered to vote before the deadline at 11:59pm on 19 April 2021.[4]

Background

The 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom was the last of its kind. The newly formed Brexit Party came out on top in Wales. Plaid Cymru, who support full Welsh independence, came second, marking the first time it had beaten Labour in a Wales-wide election.[5] The Brexit Party also formed a parliamentary group in the Assembly made up of the four ex-UK Independence Party (UKIP) members, led by Mark Reckless.[6] A snap general election in the United Kingdom was held on 12 December 2019. Welsh Labour suffered an 8% drop in their vote and they were wiped out in North Wales, except for Alyn and Deeside. Labour ended up losing six parliamentary seats to the Welsh Conservatives in Boris Johnson's landslide victory. These seats included Bridgend, which has been represented on the assembly level by former First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones since the 1999 election. The Conservatives also picked up Brecon and Radnorshire from the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds.[7]

On 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom left the European Union. This followed a referendum on the matter in which Wales narrowly voted to leave the EU.[8] South Wales has been highlighted by many as evidence that Brexit was a cross-party issue, as those areas typically vote overwhelmingly for Labour. Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, and Caerphilly all voted in favour of Brexit, and are all represented in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by Labour MPs.

Plaid campaigned for a Remain vote in the 2016 referendum on the UK's membership of the EU.[9] Plaid later supported, during the final stages of Brexit process, a second referendum on the matter.[10][11] Plaid argued that there should be a referendum on Welsh independence after Brexit, so that Wales could apply for EU membership.[12] A June 2020 YouGov/ITV Cymru poll concluded that 25% were in favour of independence and 54% opposed. The same poll found that 22% of respondents wanted no devolution in Wales, and that 25% were for abolition of the Senedd, with 48% opposed to abolition.[13][14] A follow-up YouGov poll in August 2020 concluded that support for Welsh independence had risen to 32%.[15] However, polling in February 2021 showed that support for abolition of the Senedd was outperforming support for independence.[16]

On 17 May 2020, Health Minister Vaughan Gething told ITV Wales it was "possible" that the election might not be allowed to happen, because of the uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic.[17] The First Minister announced on 29 June 2020 that a group with representatives from all of the main parties would look at the arrangements that might have to be in place for the election if COVID-19 restrictions are still required. It would look at campaigning and voting, gathering "views over the summer so that by September, any changes the group feels would be beneficial can be considered and taken forward".[18] There was no consensus to agree if a delay was needed, but all parties agreed on measures to encourage vulnerable voters and others to consider applying for a postal vote and early applications, greater flexibility around the nomination of candidates, postal and proxy voting, and measures to ensure the safe operation of polling stations and count venues.[19] The Wales Electoral Coordination Board said on 5 January 2021 that counting of Senedd election votes cannot be done overnight because of COVID restrictions. The board said that the count "will require more staff and take longer to perform."[20]

The Welsh Government introduced a bill under emergency legislation, Welsh Elections (Coronavirus) Bill, in January 2021. It gives the Llywydd (presiding officer) the power to delay the election (with the recommendation of date by the First Minister and consent of two thirds of the Senedd) by up to six months if the Coronavirus pandemic would make the elections unsafe. The bill was passed on the 10 February 2021 with powers also to introduce early voting and more flexibility with proxy voting.[21][22]

On 9 March 2021 in a joint British Governments statement ministers said that there will be safety measures in place for May's elections. They encouraged voters to take their own pens or pencils and reconfirmed their aim for elections being conducted on the 6 May 2021.[23][24] In the 3 week review on the 12 March 2021 the First Minister said that the threshold for postponing the election hasn't currently been met. Mark Drakeford also said that leafleting (not door knocking) will be able to start from 15 March.[25]

During the pandemic, the Welsh government messaging and laws have been distinct from the UK government's actions in England; this has made the Welsh public more conscious about devolution.[26] The Welsh government only let[words missing] businesses access the Economic Resilience Fund devolved to them by Westminster if they officially recognised a trade union so they could recruit in those workplaces.[27] The Welsh government announced a two-week lockdown to reduce the prevalence of the virus — called a "firebreak" — in line with the other devolved administrations and distinct from the UK government's lockdown in England.[28]

On 11 December 2020, Plaid announced that they would hold a referendum on Welsh independence within five years if they won a majority.[29] Despite being a unionist party, Labour has selected three candidates who support independence.[30]

On 3 February 2021, UKIP leader Neil Hamilton stated that the party would pledge to deliver a referendum on the devolved administrations in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.[31] He later told BBC Radio Wales: "UKIP had its founding principle in getting out of the European Union and now we've done that we can concentrate on reintegrating the United Kingdom… Our slogan in this election is 'scrap the Senedd'."[32]

On 7 March 2021, the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party (AWAP) announced that it would be running candidates in all constituencies in the election, and also said that it would run candidates on the regional list.[33] On 6 April, BBC News reported that Gareth Bennett would not stand for Abolish, with Bennett coming to a mutual agreement with the party to stand as an independent in Cynon Valley whilst still remaining supportive of the party, a decision which left Mark Reckless as the party's only MS.[34] The same day, it was reported that ten prospective candidates for Abolish had also "dropped out" with leader Richard Suchorzewski claiming it was due to, "Welsh Nationalist abuse and fear of reprisals."[35]

On 16 April, it was reported that of the 70,000 16 and 17-year-olds eligible to vote, less than 9,000 were currently registered in six counties, according to figures collected by the Election Reform Society (ERS). The deadline to register to vote was Monday 19 April 2021.[36] Figures later compiled by the BBC suggested around 46% of people in this age group were registered to vote by the deadline.[37]

Retiring members

The following MSs will not run for re-election:

Constituency/Region Departing MS Party
Bridgend Carwyn Jones[38] style="background-color: Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color" | Labour
South Wales Central David Melding[39] style="background-color: Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color" | Conservatives
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Dafydd Elis-Thomas[40] style="background-color: Template:Independent/meta/color" | Independent
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Angela Burns[41] style="background-color: Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color" | Conservatives
South Wales West Bethan Sayed[42] style="background-color: Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color" | Plaid Cymru
Brecon and Radnorshire Kirsty Williams[43] style="background-color: Template:Welsh Liberal Democrats/meta/color" | Liberal Democrats
South Wales West Suzy Davies[44] style="background-color: Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color" | Conservatives
Vale of Clwyd Ann Jones[45] style="background-color: Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color" | Labour

Parties

See also: Political parties in Wales

Contesting constituency and regional ballot

Labour, Plaid Cymru, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK are standing in all 40 constituencies and all five regional ballots.[46] Five other parties are contesting all five regions and at least one constituency: Abolish The Welsh Assembly (23 constituencies), UKIP (14 constituencies), Gwlad (14 constituencies), Welsh Green Party (13 constituencies) and Propel (11 constituencies).

Llais Gwynedd is standing in one constituency and no regionss. Also Socialist Party of Great Britain is standing in one constituency and no region.

Two parties are contesting some of the regions and at least one constituency: Freedom Alliance (3 regions and 13 constituencies) and No More Lockdowns (2 regions and 1 constituency).

Parties with representation in the Senedd prior to the election

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2016 result Current seats
Votes (%) Seats
Regional Constituency
style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;" | Labour Social democracy
British unionism
Democratic socialism 		Mark Drakeford
MS for Cardiff West 		31.5% 34.7%
29 / 60
29 / 60
style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color;" | Plaid Cymru Welsh nationalism
Welsh independence
Democratic socialism
Social democracy 		Adam Price
MS for Camarthen East and Dinefwr 		20.8% 20.5%
12 / 60
10 / 60
style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;" | Conservatives Conservatism
British unionism
Economic liberalism 		Andrew RT Davies
MS for South Wales Central 		18.8% 21.1%
11 / 60
10 / 60
style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;" | UKIP Euroscepticism
Right-wing populism
National conservatism
Economic liberalism
British nationalism
British unionism 		Neil Hamilton
MS for Mid and West Wales 		13.0% 12.5%
7 / 60
1 / 60
style="background:Template:Welsh Liberal Democrats/meta/color;" | Liberal Democrats Liberalism
British unionism
Federalism
Social liberalism
Pro-Europeanism 		Jane Dodds
Not an MS 		6.5% 7.7%
1 / 60
1 / 60
style="background:Template:Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party/meta/color;" | Abolish the Welsh Assembly Welsh Parliament abolition
Single-issue politics 		Richard Suchorzewski
Not an MS 		4.4% –
0 / 60
1 / 60
Propel Welsh nationalism
Welsh independence
Localism
Sovereignism
Anti-nuclearism 		Neil McEvoy
MS for South Wales Central 		– –
0 / 60
1 / 60

The five remaining seats are occupied by those independent of political parties.

Other parties contesting all or some regions and all or some constituencies

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2016 result Current seats
Votes (%) Seats
Regional Constituency
style="background:Template:Wales Green Party/meta/color;" | Green Green politics
Eco-socialism
Progressivism
Pro-Europeanism 		Anthony Slaughter
Not an MS 		3.0 2.5
0 / 60
0 / 60
Gwlad Welsh Independence
Economic liberalism
Conservatism 		Gwyn Wigley Evans
Not an MS 		– – Did not exist
0 / 60
Reform UK Populism
Euroscepticism 		Nathan Gill
Not an MS 		– – Did not exist
0 / 60
style="background:Template:Freedom Alliance (UK)/meta/color;" | Freedom Alliance COVID-19 anti-lockdown
Libertarianism
Devolution 		Carol Dobson
Not an MS 		– – Did not exist
0 / 60

Contesting regional ballot only

Some parties are opting to only contest the regional lists. Two parties – Communist Party of Great Britain and TUSC – are contesting all five electoral regions. The Welsh Christian Party and the Workers Party of Britain are both standing in one region.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2016 result Current seats
Votes (%) Seats
Regional Constituency
Communist Party of Britain Communism
Marxism–Leninism
Socialism
Trade unionism
Euroscepticism 		Robert David Griffiths
Not an MS 		0.2 –
0 / 60
0 / 60
TUSC Wales Trade unionism
Socialism
Euroscepticism 		Dave Nellist
Not an MS 		0.2 –
0 / 60
0 / 60
style="background:Template:Christian Party (UK)/meta/color;" | Welsh Christian Christian right
Euroscepticism
Social conservatism
British unionism 		Jeff Green
Not an MS 		0.1 –
0 / 60
0 / 60

Campaign

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, campaigning will be taking into account health issues. Mark Drakeford was criticised for publishing a leaflet in the English language, without a bilingual one.[47] 16-year olds will be able to vote for the first time.[48] Joel Williams, Conservative candidate for Cardiff North, got the name of his own constituency wrong on a campaign leaflet.[49] Dwyfor Meirionydd Conservative candidate, Charlie Evans, had to apologise for a tweet praising Llyn Tryweryn,[50] the lake which was created to provide water for Liverpool, immortalised with the slogan Cofiwch Dryweryn.

After the death of Prince Philip on 9 April 2021, all of the main political parties suspended campaigning as a mark of respect. Labour and Plaid restarted their campaigns three days later.[51]

Election debates

2021 Senedd election debates
Date Sheduled Organisers Moderator(s)  P  Present[e]    S  Surrogate[f]    NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee  INV Invited 
Labour Plaid Cymru Conservatives Lib Dems Abolish Green UKIP Reform UK Audience Ref.
style="background:Template:Welsh Labour Party/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Welsh Liberal Democrats/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party/meta/color;"|
18 April ITV Adrian Masters P
Drakeford 		P
Price 		P
Davies 		NI NI NI NI NI Virtual [52][53]
29 April BBC Bethan Rhys Roberts P
Drakeford 		P
Price 		P
Davies 		P
Dodds 		P
Suchorzewski 		Virtual [54][55]
Nick Servini P
Womack 		P
Hamilton 		S
Jenkins 		Virtual [56][57]
3 May S4C - Pawb a'i Farn Betsan Powys S
Morgan 		P
Price 		S
Dafydd Davies 		NI NI NI NI NI Virtual [58][59]
4 May Walesonline Ruth Mosalski P
Drakeford 		P
Price 		P
Davies 		NI NI NI NI NI Virtual

Constituency nominations

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election are bolded. Winners are highlighted with party colours.

Constituency Labour Plaid Cymru Conservatives Lib Dem Abolish the Welsh Assembly Green[60] UKIP Reform UK Wales Others and independents
Aberavon[61] David Rees Victoria Griffiths Liz Hill O'Shea[62] Helen Clarke Sarah Allen Tim Jenkins Dennis May Ceri Golding (Gwlad)
Scott Jones (IND)
Aberconwy[63] Dawn McGuinness[64] Aaron Wynne Janet Finch-Saunders Rhys Jones[65] Rachel Bagshaw Sharon Smith (No More Lockdowns)
Alyn and Deeside[66] Jack Sargeant Jack Morris Abigail Mainon[67] Chris Twells [68] Felix Aubel [69] Richard Purviss Lien Davies (Freedom Alliance)
Arfon[70] Iwan Wyn Jones[71] Siân Gwenllian Tony Thomas[72] Calum Davies[73] Andrew Haigh Martin Bristow
Blaenau Gwent[74] Alun Davies Peredur Owen Griffiths[75] Edward Dawson[76] Paula Yates Richard Taylor Robert Beavis Mandy Moore (IND)
Brecon and Radnorshire[77] Gethin Jones Grenville Ham James Evans William Powell Claire Mills[78] Emily Durrant John Muir Sam Holwill (Gwlad)

Karen Laurie-Parry (IND)

Bridgend[79] Sarah Murphy[80] Leanne Lewis Rachel Nugent-Finn Harvey Jones[81] Christine Roach Steven Bletsoe (IND)
Caroline Jones (IND) [82]
Geraint Jones (Gwlad)
Caerphilly[83] Hefin David Delyth Jewell Steven Mayfield[84] Steve Aicheler Steve Jones[85] Tim Price
Cardiff Central[86] Jenny Rathbone Wiliam Rees Calum Davies[87] Rodney Berman[88] Munawar Mughal[33] Ceri Davies[89] Julian Bosley Clem Thomas (Gwlad)

Brian Johnson (Socialist Party of Great Britain)

Thomas Franklin (Freedom Alliance)

Cardiff North[90] Julie Morgan Fflur Elin Joel Williams Rhys Taylor Lawrence Gwynn[33] Debra Cooper[91] Haydn Rushworth Akil Kata (Propel)
Virginia Kemp (Freedom Alliance)
Cardiff South and Penarth[92] Vaughan Gething Nasir Adam[93] Leighton Rowlands[94] Alex Wilson [95] Lisa Peregrine[33] Helen Westhead[96] Paul Campbell Alan Pick Angus Hawkins (Gwlad)

Alan Golding (Freedom Alliance)

Matt Friend (Propel)

David Rolfe (IND)

Cardiff West[97] Mark Drakeford Rhys ab Owen[98] Sean Driscoll[99] Heath Marshall [100] Lee Canning[101] David Griffin[102] Nick Mullins Neil McEvoy (Propel)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr[103] Rob James [104] Adam Price Havard Hughes[105] Monica M French Karl Pollard
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire[106] Riaz Hassan Cefin Campbell[107] Sam Kurtz[108] Alistair Cameron [109] Paul Dowson [110] Peter Prosser Jon Harvey (IND)
Ceredigion[111] Dylan Lewis-Rowlands Elin Jones Amanda Jenner[112] Cadan ap Tomos [113] Harry Hayfield[114] Gethin James Stephanie Evans (Freedom Alliance)
Clwyd South[115] Ken Skates Llyr Gruffydd Barbara Hughes Leena Farhat Jonathon Harrington[116] Jeanette Barton Mandy Jones
Clwyd West[117] Joshua Hurst [118] Elin Walker Jones Darren Millar David Wilkins [119] Euan Mcgivern Jeanie Barton Clare Eno Rhydian Hughes (Gwlad)
Cynon Valley[120] Vikki Howells Geraint Benney Mia Rees[121] Gerald Francis Martyn Ford Peter Hopkins Gareth Bennett (IND)[122]
Vicky Jenkins (Propel)
Delyn[123] Hannah Blythyn Paul Rowlinson Mark Isherwood[108] Andrew Parkhurst [68] Mary Davies [124] Aiden Down Anthony Williams (Gwlad)
Dwyfor Meirionnydd[125] Cian Ireland Mabon ap Gwynfor[126] Charlie Evans[127] Stephen Churchman Louise Hughes Glyn Daniels (Llais Gwynedd)
Michelle Murray (Freedom Alliance)
Peter Read (Propel)
Gower[128] Rebecca Evans John Davies Myles Langstone[129] Michael Sheehan Anna Pigott[114] Byron John David Erasmus (Gwlad)
Islwyn[130] Rhianon Passmore Rhys Mills[131] Gavin Chambers[132] Oliver Townsend Mike Ford[85] Neil Hamilton James Wells Kevin Etheridge (IND) [133]
Llanelli[134] Lee Waters Helen Mary Jones[135] Stefan Ryszewski[136] Jon Burree Howard Lillyman [137] Gareth Beer Sian Caiach (Gwlad)

Shahana Najmi (IND)

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney[138] Dawn Bowden Ian Gwynne[139] Donna Gavin[140] Jez Becker Hugh Moelwyn Hughes[85] George Pykov Colin Jones
Monmouth[141] Catrin Maby Hugh Kocan Peter Fox[142] Jo Watkins[143] Mark Reckless Ian Chandler[114] Susan Boucher Laurence Williams (Gwlad)
Nick Ramsay (IND)[144][145]
Elspeth Hill (Freedom Alliance)
Montgomeryshire[146] Kait Duerden Elwyn Vaughan Russell George Alison Alexander Oliver Lewis Gwyn Evans (Gwlad)
Neath[147] Jeremy Miles Sioned Williams Mathew Williams[148] Iain Clamp Simon Rees Megan Poppy Lloyd[149] Andrew Pryer James Henton (Propel)
Newport East[150] John Griffiths Daniel Llewellyn Gareth Rhys Hughes[151] Mike Hamilton[152] Rob Steed[85] Ben Walker David Rowlands Sonya Cary (Freedom Alliance)
Newport West[153] Jayne Bryant Jonathan Clark Michael Enea[154] John Miller[155] Amelia Womack[114] Kevin Boucher Steve Marsh (Freedom Alliance)
Ogmore[156] Huw Irranca-Davies Luke Fletcher[157] Nathan Adams[158] Cameron Shippam Robin Hunter-Clarke Glenda Davies Tim Thomas (Propel)
Pontypridd[159] Mick Antoniw Heledd Fychan[160] Joel James[161] Steven Rajam[162] Mike Hughes[33] Ken Barker[163] Jamie Jenkins Wanye Owen (IND)
Preseli Pembrokeshire[164] Jackie Jones[165] Cris Tomos[166] Paul Davies Tina Roberts[167] William Dennison
Rhondda[168] Elizabeth Buffy Williams[169] Leanne Wood Thomas Parkhilll Jackie Charlton Ian McLean[33] Steve Bayliss Jeff Gregory (Propel)
Stephen Phillips (Freedom Alliance)
Swansea East[170] Mike Hedges Rhiannon Barrar[171] Cameron Brennan[172] Sam Bennett Cameron Edwards[173] Dan Morgan Darren Rees
Swansea West[174] Julie James Dai Lloyd Samantha Chohan[175] Chloe Hutchinson James Cole[173] Chris Evans[114] Bernard Holton Michelle Valerio (Freedom Alliance)

Katon Bouzalakos (Propel)

Torfaen[176] Lynne Neagle Lyn Ackerman Gruff Parry Veronica German[177] Tom Harrison Ian Williams Ryan Williams (Gwlad)

Matthew Ross-Francome (Freedom Alliance)

Vale of Clwyd[178] Jason McLellan Glenn Swingler Gareth Davies Lisa Davies[179] Peter Dain David Thomas (IND)
Vale of Glamorgan[180] Jane Hutt Richard Grigg Matt Smith Sally Stephenson[181] Stuart Field[33] Anthony Slaughter[182] Michael Hancock Karl-James Langford (Gwlad)

Alan Coulthard (IND)

Neill Shah (Freedom Alliance)

Janet Brocklehurst (Propel)

Wrexham[183] Lesley Griffiths Carrie Harper Jeremy Kent Tim Sly Paul Ashton Sebastian Ross [184] Charles Dodman Aaron Norton (Gwlad)
Ynys Môn[185] Samantha Egelstaff Rhun ap Iorwerth Lyn Hudson[186] Chris Jones Emmett Jenner

Regional nominations

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election are bolded. Winners are highlighted with party colours.

Region Labour

[187]

Plaid Cymru

[188][189][190]

Conservatives

[191]

Abolish the Welsh Assembly
[192][85][193] 		UKIP

[194]

Reform UK Wales

[195][196]

Lib Dem

[197][198]

Green

[199]

Others and independents
Mid and West Wales[200] Eluned Morgan Cefin Campbell Tomos Davies Claire Mills Jonathon Riley Gethin James Jane Dodds Emily Durrant[201] Siân Mair Caiach (Gwlad)
Joyce Watson Helen Mary Jones Amanda Jenner Ray Wood Howard Lilyman Roger Lewis William Powell Tomos Barlow Gwyn Wigley Evans (Gwlad)
Helen Taylor Elwyn Vaughan Liz Lesnianski Jeremy Pugh Paul Dowson Louise Hughes Alistair Cameron Harry Hayfield Dennis Morris (Gwlad)
Ben Gwalchmai Cris Tomos Aled Davies Benjamin Pugh Ken Rees Peter Prosser Stephen Churchman Marc Pearton-Scale[202] Samuel Holwill (Gwlad)
North Wales[203] Carolyn Thomas Llyr Gruffydd Mark Isherwood Richard Suchorzewski Dr Felix Aubel Nathan Gill Chris Twells Iolo Jones[204] Michelle Brown (IND)

Phil Roberts (Gwlad)

Andy Short Carrie Harper Sam Rowlands Jonathon Harrington Jeanie Barton Peter Dain David Wilkins Duncan Rees Aled Gwyn Job (Gwlad)
Diane Green Elin Walker Jones Barbara Hughes William Ashton Mary Davies Clare Eno Tim Sly Adam Turner Rhydian Hughes (Gwlad)
Ryan O’Gorman Paul Rowlinson Gareth Davies Craig Search Jeanette Bassford-Barton Charles Dodman Calum Davies Linda Rogers Aaron Norton (Gwlad)
Catrin Wagner Abigail Mainon Euan McGivern Sebastian Ross Emmett Jenner Andrew Parkhurst Anthony Williams (Gwlad)
South Wales Central[205] Ruba Sivagnanam Rhys ab Owen Andrew RT Davies Lee Canning Paul Campbell Jamie Jenkins Rodney Berman Anthony Slaughter[206] Karl-James Langford (Gwlad)
Dan De'Ath Heledd Fychan Joel James Martyn Ford Benjamin Dale Peter Hopkins Rhys Taylor Helen Westhead Clem Thomas (Gwlad)
Maliika Kaaba Fflur Elin Calum Davies Munawar Ahmed Mughal Clive Easton Steve Bayliss Sally Stephenson David Griffin Angus Hawkins (Gwlad)
Owain Williams Sahar Al-Faifi Adrian Robson Lisa Peregrine Paul Williams Mike Hancock Steven Rajam Debra Cooper Rosamund Ellis-Evans (Gwlad)
South Wales East[207] Helen Cunningham Delyth Jewell Laura Anne Jones Mark Reckless Neil Hamilton James Wells Jo Watkins Amelia Womack[208] Rob Griffiths (Communist Party)

Calen Jones (Gwlad)

Peter Jones Peredur Owen Griffiths Natasha Asghar Richard Taylor Ben Walker Kirsty Walmsley Veronica German Ian Chandler Bob Davenport (Communist Party)

Laurence Williams (Gwlad)

Mary Ann Brocklesby Lindsay Whittle Matthew Evans Steve Jones Tom Harrison David Rowlands Oliver Townsend Lauren James Glenn Stephen Eynon (Communist Party)

Ryan Thomas Williams (Gwlad)

Majid Rahman Rhys Mills Nick Evans Mike Ford Rob James Colin Jones Jez Becker Stephen Priestnall Irene Green (Communist Party)

Terry Beverton (Gwlad)

South Wales West[209] Sian James Sioned Williams Tom Giffard Simon Rees Tim Jenkins Christine Roach Chloe Hutchinson Megan Poppy Lloyd[210] Geraint David Jones (Gwlad)
Kevin Pascoe Luke Fletcher Altaf Hussain Cameron Edwards Dan Morgan Glenda Davies Sam Bennett Chris Evans Wayne Erasmus (Gwlad)
Neelo Farr John Davies Samantha Chohan Robin Hunter-Clarke Stan Robinson Byron John Harvey Jones Alex Harris[211] David Smith (Gwlad)
Mahaboob Basha Jamie Evans Liz Hill O'Shea Sarah Allen Gillian Mason Sean Prior Helen Ceri Clarke Tom Muller[212] John Young (Gwlad)

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd election

The constituency vote is shown in lighter lines, while the regional vote is shown in darker lines.

Graph of the evolution of the opinion polls for the 2021 Welsh Parliament election (the right border represents the last possible day for the election to be held). Lines represent local regressions (LOESS) with a span of 0.5.

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 10% from the 2016 result to change hands.

Labour targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing
to gain
(%) 		Labour's
place
2016 		Result
1 Aberconwy

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Welsh Conservatives" |

Conservative 1,607
(over
Labour) 		3.35 3rd
2 Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Welsh Conservatives" |

Conservative 3,373 5.75 2nd
3 Preseli Pembrokeshire

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Welsh Conservatives" |

Conservative 3,930 6.8 2nd
4 Rhondda

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #005B54;" data-sort-value="Plaid Cymru" |

Plaid Cymru 3,459 7.35 2nd
5 Monmouth

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Welsh Conservatives" |

Conservative 5,147 8.2 2nd

Plaid Cymru targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing
to gain
(%) 		Plaid's
place
2016 		Result
1 Llanelli

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 382 0.65 2nd
2 Blaenau Gwent

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 650 1.55 2nd
3 Aberconwy

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Welsh Conservatives" |

Conservative 754 1.7 2nd
4 Cardiff West

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 1,176 1.85 2nd
5 Caerphilly

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 1,575 2.9 2nd
6 Neath

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 2,923 5.75 2nd

Conservative targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing
to gain
(%) 		Conservatives'
place
2016 		Result
1 Vale of Glamorgan

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 777 1.05 2nd
2 Vale of Clwyd

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 768 1.55 2nd
3 Gower

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 1,829 3.05 2nd
4 Wrexham

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 1,325 3.25 2nd
5 Cardiff North

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 3,667 4.9 2nd
6 Clwyd South

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 3,016 6.8 2nd
7 Delyn

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 3,582 7.7 2nd

Liberal Democrat targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing
to gain
(%) 		Lib Dems'
place
2016 		Result
1 Cardiff Central

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 817 1.55 2nd
2 Ceredigion

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #005B54;" data-sort-value="Plaid Cymru" |

Plaid Cymru 2,408 4.1 2nd
3 Montgomeryshire

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Welsh Conservatives" |

Conservative 3,339 7.05 2nd

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Suchorzewski will stand on the North Wales list.
  2. ^ The party's sole representative in the Senedd, Mark Reckless, was elected for UKIP, before joining the Conservative Group (although not the party) then becoming a member of the Brexit Party in 2019, before joining the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020.
  3. ^ Dodds will stand on the Mid and West Wales list.
  4. ^ The party's sole representative in the Senedd, Neil McEvoy, was elected as a member of Plaid Cymru in 2016, before leaving the party to become an independent, then created the Welsh National Party (now Propel) in 2020.
  5. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  6. ^ Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.

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  162. ^ Rajam, Steven [@Steven4PontyWLD] (14 September 2020). "I'm delighted to have been selected as the Welsh Liberal Democrat candidate for the #Pontypridd constituency at the 2021 #Senedd elections. I'm here to fight for people, communities and businesses across #RhonddaCynonTaf - whatever your political colours or where you come from. https://t.co/tcDij6Z7H5" (Tweet). Retrieved 23 December 2020 – via Twitter.
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  165. ^ Jones, Jackie. "Jackie Jones: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿Welsh Labour & Co-op Party Senedd candidate for Preseli Pembs 2021. Former MEP 2019-20 🇪🇺 & Prof of Law 🌹 lived in 🇺🇸 and 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿". Twitter. Retrieved 25 December 2020.
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  168. ^ "Rhondda Senedd 2021 SoPN" (PDF).{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  169. ^ Welsh Labour [@WelshLabour] (13 July 2020). "👏 Llongyfarchiadau @buffywills — selected as our @WelshLabour candidate for Rhondda in next year's @SeneddWales elections. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🌹🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 #StandingUpForWales https://t.co/61pJ33dYd8" (Tweet) (in Welsh). Retrieved 23 December 2020 – via Twitter.
  170. ^ "Swansea East Senedd 2021 SoPN" (PDF).{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  171. ^ Rhiannon, Barrar [@NelsonGirl1] (29 November 2020). "It is an honour to be selected as Plaid Cymru candidate for Swansea East" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  172. ^ Welsh Conservatives [@WelshConserv] (2 December 2020). "Llongyfarchiadau Cameron! #Swansea https://t.co/scyhR6IMr8" (Tweet) (in Welsh). Retrieved 23 December 2020 – via Twitter.
  173. ^ a b "Notices (Senedd Cymru elections)".
  174. ^ "Swansea West Senedd 2021 SoPN" (PDF).{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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  176. ^ "Torfaen Senedd 2021 SoPN" (PDF).{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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  180. ^ "Vale of Glamorgan Senedd 2021 SoPN" (PDF).{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  181. ^ "Sally Stephenson". Welsh Liberal Democrats.
  182. ^ "Anthony Slaughter: Senedd 1st List Candidate and Vale of Glamorgan Constituency Candidate". Cardiff Green Party.
  183. ^ "Wrexham Senedd 2021 SoPN" (PDF).{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  184. ^ @CymruUKIP (17 March 2021). "‼We're delighted to announce that Sebastian Ross is standing as the UKIP candidate for the Wrexham constituency in the upcoming Senedd elections" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  185. ^ "Anglesey Senedd 2021 SoPN" (PDF).{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  186. ^ "Cardiff local councillor to stand for Welsh Conservatives in Ynys Mon in Senedd elections". North Wales Chronicle. 4 December 2020. Retrieved 4 December 2020.
  187. ^ Chappell, Elliot (30 October 2020). "Welsh Labour unveils 2021 Senedd election regional candidates list". Labour List. Retrieved 28 November 2020.
  188. ^ "Plaid Cymru announce regional candidates for 2021 Senedd election". Nation Cymru. 30 October 2020. Retrieved 28 November 2020.
  189. ^ "Plaid Cymru regional candidate steps down over Helen Mary Jones promotion of transphobia". Nation Cymru. Retrieved 4 March 2021.
  190. ^ Mosalski, Ruth (28 March 2021). "Senedd election 2021: Who is standing in the Mid and West Wales region?". WalesOnline. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  191. ^ Welsh Conservatives [@WelshConserv] (18 January 2021). "Congratulations! Meet your new Mid and West Wales Regional Team!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  201. ^ Durrant, Emily [@emilyvdurrant] (8 February 2021). "Personal Announcement
    I've been selected as the lead candidate for @TheGreenParty for Mid & West Wales. I'm proud of all I've achieved as an elected Cllr + really excited 2 stand in this yrs elections + hopefully make history as 1 of the 1st elected Greens 2 the Senedd"     (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  204. ^ North West Wales Green Party [@NWWGreenParty] (8 September 2020). "Great news to share this afternoon. Our very own Iolo Jones is the Lead Candidate for the 2021 Senedd Elections for North Wales!
    Newyddion gwych i'w rannu y prynhawn yma. Ein Iolo Jones ni yw'r Prif Ymgeisydd ar gyfer Etholiadau Senedd 2021 ar gyfer Gogledd Cymru! #Senedd21"     (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  205. ^ "South Wales Central 2021 Senedd Statement of Persons Nominated" (PDF).{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  206. ^ King, Harriet (12 August 2020). "Wales Green Party leader selected as lead candidate on Regional List for Senedd 2021". Wales Green Party.
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  208. ^ Gwent Green Party [@GwentGreens] (16 September 2020). "Your Green candidates for South Wales East have been announced. More on our website:
    https://gwent.greenparty.org.uk"     (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  209. ^ https://www.swansea.gov.uk/Senedd2021Notices
  210. ^ King, Harriet (5 July 2020). "Candidates selected to represent the Green Party for the South Wales West region". Wales Green Party.
  211. ^ South Wales West Greens [@SWWGreens] (12 August 2020). "ICYMI: Here are our South Wales West list candidates for the 2021 Senedd election!
    Megan Poppy Lloyd (Neath)
    Chris Evans (Gower)
    Cllr. Alex Harris (Bridgend)
    Tom Muller (Ogmore)"     (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  212. ^ Muller, Tom [@TomMullerOgmore] (20 July 2020). "Candidates selected to represent the @WalesGreenParty for the South Wales West region Senedd Cymru – Welsh Parliament elections, May 2021 #senedd2021 #2ndvotegreen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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