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2020 United States presidential election in Florida

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Florida
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout77.17% (of registered voters)[1] Increase 2.69 pp
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 29 0
Popular vote 5,668,731 5,297,045
Percentage 51.22% 47.86%
County results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Florida
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Government

The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent president Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, and his running mate California senator Kamala Harris. Florida has 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Florida was one of five states (plus Washington DC) where Trump received a greater percentage of the two-party vote than he did in 2016.[a]

Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[4] The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston; Milwaukee was ultimately selected as the host.[5][6] Florida was Trump's state of residency for this election, after having identified New York as his home state in 2016.[7] As a result, Trump became the first nominee of either major party to be a Florida resident. Biden was selected as the Democratic nominee in the 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020.

Prior to the election, aggregate polls had Joe Biden in the lead in Florida by up to almost 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won the state by a 3.4 point margin, improving upon his margin from 2016 over Hillary Clinton by 2.2 points; it was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since 2004. The main reason was due to increased support among Latino voters in the state, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which Biden carried by just a 7.4 point margin, significantly lower than Clinton's 29.4 point margin in 2016 or Obama's 23.7 point margin in 2012.[8] Trump carried the Cuban vote with 56%, while Biden carried the Puerto Rican vote with 66%, and Trump and Biden split the South American vote with 50% each. Overall, Biden won 54% of Latinos. [9][10] Trump labeled Biden as a "trojan horse for socialism".[11] In this election, Florida voted 7.8 points right of the nation as a whole, the furthest it has voted from the nation since 1988, when Florida voted 14.6 points right of the nation.

This election was the first time since 1992, and only the second time since 1960, that Florida went to the losing candidate in a presidential election. It was also the first time since 1960 that both Ohio and Florida have voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election, the first time since 1992 that Florida voted Republican while neighboring Georgia voted Democratic, and the first time since 1992 that Florida voted more Republican than North Carolina. Trump also became the first Republican candidate since George W. Bush did so in 2004 to win Florida with a majority of the state's popular vote. [12]

Despite his loss statewide, Biden became the first Democrat to win Duval County--consolidated with Jacksonville--since Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976, and the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948.[13][14] Biden also flipped Pinellas County back to the Democratic Party. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying St. Lucie County since Bill Clinton in 1992, and the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Monroe County since Grover Cleveland in 1884. [15]

Also, this is the first time since 1888 that Florida increased its margin to an incumbent that lost re-election nationally.

Florida is one of three states that voted twice for both Barack Obama and Trump, with the other two being Ohio and Iowa.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.

Republican primary

The Florida secretary of state declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Republican presidential primary § FLresults.[edit]
2020 Florida Republican presidential primary[16][17]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 1,162,984 93.79 122
Bill Weld 39,319 3.17
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 25,464 2.05
Rocky De La Fuente 12,172 0.98
Total 1,239,939 100% 122

Democratic primary

Three Democrats were still in the race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard.[18][19][20]

The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.[21]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary § FLresults.[edit]
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
  Biden—80–90%
2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary[22]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[23]
Joe Biden 1,077,375 61.95 162
Bernie Sanders 397,311 22.84 57
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[b] 146,544 8.43
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 39,886 2.29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[b] 32,875 1.89
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 17,276 0.99
Tulsi Gabbard 8,712 0.50
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 5,286 0.30
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 4,244 0.24
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 2,510 0.14
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 1,744 0.10
John Delaney (withdrawn) 1,583 0.09
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 1,507 0.09
Julián Castro (withdrawn) 1,036 0.06
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) 664 0.04
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 661 0.04
Total 1,739,214 100% 219

General election

Final predictions

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[24] Tossup
Inside Elections[25] Tilt D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Lean R
Politico[27] Tossup
RCP[28] Tossup
Niskanen[29] Likely D (flip)
CNN[30] Tossup
The Economist[31] Lean D (flip)
CBS News[32] Tossup
270towin[33] Tossup
ABC News[34] Tossup
NPR[35] Tossup
NBC News[36] Tossup
538[37] Lean D (flip)

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided[c] 		Margin
270 to Win October 24 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 48.7% 46.0% 5.3% Biden +2.7
Real Clear Politics October 28 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 47.9% 47.0% 5.1% Biden +0.9
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.1% 46.6% 4.3% Biden +2.5
Average 48.6% 46.5% 4.9% Biden +2.1

State polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
Insider Advantage/Fox 35 Nov 1–2, 2020[e] 400 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 47% 2% - – 3%
Trafalgar Group Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2020 1,054 (LV) ± 2.94% 49% 47% 2% - 1%[f] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 8,792 (LV) ± 1.5% 49%[g] 49% - - – –
AYTM/Aspiration Oct 30 – Nov 1, 2020 517 (LV) – 43% 45% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 806 (LV) ± 3.45% 48% 51% 0% 0% – 1%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 46% 2% - 2%[h] 3%
Quinnipiac University Oct 28 – Nov 1, 2020 1,657 (LV) ± 2.4% 42% 47% - - 1%[f] 9%
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,261 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 53% 1% 1% – –
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,202 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 51% 1% 1% 0%[i] –
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 670 (LV) ± 4.3% 46%[j] 50% 1% 0% 1%[k] –
46%[l] 50% - - 2%[m] 2%
47%[n] 51% - - 2%[o] –
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere[B] Oct 30–31, 2020 768 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% - - – –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 29–31, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 48% - - 3%[p] –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 27–31, 2020 1,451 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 47% 2% 1% 0%[q] 6%[r]
Morning Consult Oct 22–31, 2020 4,451 (LV) ± 2% 45% 52% - - – –
St. Pete Polls Oct 29–30, 2020 2,758 (LV) ± 1.9% 48% 49% 1% - – 2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 28–30, 2020 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 47%[j] 51% - - 2%[o] 0%
45%[s] 52% - - 2%[o] 0%
48%[t] 49% - - 2%[o] 0%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart Oct 25–30, 2020 1,027 (LV) – 47% 51% - - 2%[u] –
AtlasIntel Oct 28–29, 2020 786 (LV) ± 3% 48.5% 48.5% - - – 3%
Public Policy Polling/Climate Power 2020[C] Oct 28–29, 2020 941 (V) – 45% 52% - - – 3%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill Oct 26–29, 2020 1,148 (LV) ± >=3% 47% 50% - - – 3%
ABC/Washington Post Oct 24–29, 2020 824 (LV) ± 4% 50% 48% 1% 0% 0%[v] 0%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 27–28, 2020 1,587 (LV) – 46% 50% 1% 0% 0% 3%
Trafalgar Group Oct 25–28, 2020 1,088 (LV) ± 2.89% 50% 47% 2% - 1%[f] 1%
Monmouth University Oct 24–28, 2020 509 (RV) ± 4.7% 45% 50% 1% 0% 1%[w] 2%
509 (LV) 45%[x] 51% - - – –
46%[y] 50% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 14,571 (LV) – 50% 48% - - – –
Marist College/NBC Oct 25–27, 2020 743 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 51% - - 1% 1%
Quinnipiac University Oct 23–27, 2020 1,324 (LV) ± 2.7% 42% 45% - - 1%[f] 11%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 21–27, 2020 704 (LV) ± 4.2% 47%[j] 48% 1% 1% 2%[z] –
47%[l] 49% - - 3%[aa] 2%
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 605 (LV) ± 5.4% 51% 46% 2% 1% – –
YouGov/Institute of Politics at Florida State University Oct 16–26, 2020 1,200 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 48% - - – 6%
Wick Surveys Oct 24–25, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 47% - - – –
Florida Atlantic University Oct 24–25, 2020 937 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 50% - - 2%[ab] –
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] Oct 23–25, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 44% 2% - 3%[ac] 3%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 		Oct 17–25, 2020 743 (RV) ± 3.56% 46% 49% - - 2%[ab] 3%
Ryan Tyson (R) Released Oct 24, 2020 – (V)[ad] – 47% 45% - - 3%[ae] 4%
Gravis Marketing Oct 24, 2020 665 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 47% - - – 5%
YouGov/CBS Oct 20–23, 2020 1,228 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 50% - - 2%[af] 0%
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics Oct 21–22, 2020 2,527 (LV) ± 2% 47% 49% - - 2%[ag] 2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 20–22, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48%[j] 50% - - 1%[ah] 1%
46%[s] 52% - - 1%[ah] 1%
48%[t] 46% - - 1%[ah] 1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 20–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 46% - - 3%[ai] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 14–21, 2020 662 (LV) ± 4.3% 46%[j] 51% 1% 0% 2%[z] –
46%[l] 50% - - 1%[aj] 3%
Citizen Data Oct 17–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 50% 1% 0% 1% 4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 17–20, 2020 863 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 51% - - 1%[f] 1%
CNN/SSRS Oct 15–20, 2020 847 (LV) ± 4% 46% 50% 1% 1% 0%[ak] 1%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20, 2020 4,685 (LV) ± 1.4% 45% 52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Oct 16–19, 2020 547 (LV)[e] – 45% 50% - - – –
University of North Florida Oct 12–16, 2020 863 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 48% - - 1%[f] 3%
HarrisX/The Hill[1] Oct 12–15, 2020 965 (LV) – 48% 48% - - – 4%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 7–14, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.4% 47%[j] 50% 0% 0% 2%[al] –
47%[l] 49% - - 1%[aj] 3%
Trafalgar Group Oct 11–13, 2020 1,051 (LV) ± 2.94% 48% 46% 2% 1% 1%[f] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 10–13, 2020 1,519 (LV) – 44%[e] 50% 1% 0% – –
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics Oct 11–12, 2020 2,215 (LV) ± 2.1% 47% 49% - - 1%[am] 2%
Emerson College Oct 10–12, 2020 690 (LV) ± 3.7% 48%[an] 51% - - 1%[f] –
Mason-Dixon Oct 8–12, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4% 45% 48% - - 1%[ao] 6%
Clearview Research Oct 7–12, 2020 550 (LV) ± 4.18% 40%[j] 47% - - 4%[ap] 9%
39%[aq] 48% - - 4%[ap] 9%
41%[ar] 46% - - 4%[ap] 9%
Morning Consult Oct 2–11, 2020 4,785 (LV) ± 1.4% 46% 51% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 9–10, 2020 750 (LV) – 42%[e] 53% 1% 0% – –
Florida Atlantic University Oct 9–10, 2020 644 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 51% - - 2%[ab] –
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 4–8, 2020 800 (LV) – 46%[j] 48% 1% 1% 1% 4%
44%[s] 50% 1% 1% 1% 4%
47%[t] 46% 1% 1% 1% 4%
Insider Advantage/Hannity Exclusive (R) Oct 6–7, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 46% 1% - – 10%
YouGov/CCES Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 3,755 (LV) – 47% 49% - - – –
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 678 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 49% - - 1%[aj] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 4–6, 2020 998 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 49% 1% 0% 1%[as] 6%
Quinnipiac University Oct 1–5, 2020 1,256 (LV) ± 2.8% 40% 51% - - 1%[f] 7%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 2–4, 2020 560 (LV) – 46% 50% - - – –
Suffolk University/USA Today[2] Oct 1–4, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45%[j] 45% 2% 0%[at] 2%[au] 6%
46%[av] 45% - - 2%[aw] 7%
University of North Florida Oct 1–4, 2020 3,134 (LV) ± 1.8% 45% 51% - - 1%[f] 3%[r]
St. Leo University Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 489 (LV) – 44% 50% - - – 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 710 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 47% 2% 1% 0%[q] 8%[r]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 12,962 (LV) – 47% 51% - - – 2%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce Sep 23–29, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 44%[e] 49% - - – –
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] Sep 23–26, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 46% 3% - – 8%[r]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 23–25, 2020 1,073 (LV) ± 2.99% 43% 48% 1% 1% 1%[as] 7%
St. Pete Polls Sep 21–22, 2020 2,906 (LV) ± 1.8% 47% 50% - - 2%[ag] 2%
Data For Progress[D] Sep 15–22, 2020 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% - - – 11%
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20, 2020 702 (LV) – 46% 49% - - – –
ABC/Washington Post Sep 15–20, 2020 613 (LV) ± 4.5% 51% 47% - - 1%[ax] 1%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[E] Sep 17–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 51% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Sep 15–18, 2020 1,205 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 48% - - 1%[ay] 5%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–17, 2020 586 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 47% - - 2%[m] 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–14, 2020 1,158 (LV) ± 2.88% 44% 47% 1% 1% 1%[as] 6%
Monmouth University Sep 10–13, 2020 428 (RV) ± 4.7% 45% 50% 2% 0% 1%[az] 3%
428 (LV) 45%[ba] 50% - - 1%[bb] 3%
46%[bc] 49% - - 1%[bb] 3%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report Aug 29 – Sep 13, 2020 1,009 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 43% - - 4%[bd] 11%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 11–12, 2020 631 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 50% - - 0%[be] –
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics/AARP Sep 7–8, 2020 2,689 (LV) ± 1.9% 47% 50% - - 2%[ag] 2%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 30 – Sep 8, 2020 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 48% - - 2%[bf] 4%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 3,914 (LV) ± (2%-4%) 43%[bg] 50% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6, 2020 1,144 (LV) – 46% 49% - - 4%[bh] –
Marist College/NBC Aug 31 – Sep 5, 2020 760 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 48% - - 1% 2%
Trafalgar Group Sep 1–3, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 2% - 1%[bi] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2020 1,093 (LV) ± 2.96% 43% 48% 1% 1% 1%[as] 6%
GQR Research (D) Aug 26 – Sep 3, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 51% - - – –
Quinnipiac Archived September 3, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Aug 28 – Sep 1, 2020 1,235 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 48% - - 1%[f] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 12,286 (LV) – 50% 48% - - – 2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30, 2020 3,790 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 47% 49% - - – –
Opinium/The Guardian[3] Aug 21–26, 2020 684 (LV) – 43% 50% - - 1% 6%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23, 2020 1,262 (LV) – 46% 49% - - – –
PPP Aug 21–22, 2020 671 (V) ± 3.8% 44% 48% - - – 7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16, 2020 1,280 (LV) – 41% 49% 1% - 1%[as] 7%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16, 2020 3,484 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 45% 50% - - – –
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[F] Aug 11–15, 2020 750 (LV) ± 4% 44% 46% 2% - 1%[bj] 6%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9, 2020 469 (LV) – 44% 50% - - – –
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[G] Aug 2–4, 2020 400 (LV) – 49% 49% - - – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 13,945 (LV) – 48% 49% - - – 2%
Change Research/CNBC[4] Jul 24–26, 2020 685 (LV) – 45% 48% - - – –
Morning Consult Jul 17–26, 2020 3,760 (LV) ± 1.6% 46%[bg] 49% - - – –
Morning Consult Jul 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[ad] – 45% 49% - - – –
CNN/SSRS Jul 18–24, 2020 880 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 51% - - 2%[bk] 2%
Zogby Analytics Jul 21–23, 2020 811 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 43% 3% 2% – 9%
Mason-Dixon Jul 20–23, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 50% - - – 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–21, 2020 1,121 (LV) – 41% 48% 1% 1% 1%[as] 8%
Quinnipiac University Jul 16–20, 2020 924 (RV) ± 4.3% 38% 51% - - 6%[bl] 5%
Morning Consult Jul 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[ad] – 45% 50% - - – –
Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete Polls Jul 13–14, 2020 3,018 (RV) ± 1.8% 44% 50% - - 2%[bm] 3%
Gravis Marketing Jul 13, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 53% - - – 4%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12, 2020 1,128 (LV) – 43% 50% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Jul 7–10, 2020 1,206 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 48% - - 2%[bn] 8%
Morning Consult Jun 26 – Jul 5, 2020 – (LV)[ad] – 46% 49% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Jun 29 – Jul 2, 2020 1,072 (LV) ± 2.91% 46% 46% - - 5%[bo] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 5,663 (LV) – 51% 47% - - – 2%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28, 2020 951 (LV)[e] – 45% 50% - - – –
Morning Consult Jun 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[ad] – 45% 49% - - – –
Fox News Jun 20–23, 2020 1,010 (RV) ± 3% 40% 49% - - 6%[bp] 6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Jun 8–18, 2020 651 (RV) ± 4.6% 41% 47% - - 4%[bq] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–15, 2020 1,079 (LV) ± 2.98% 41% 45% 1% 1% 1%[as] 11%
Morning Consult Jun 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[ad] – 45% 50% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14, 2020 713 (LV)[e] – 43% 50% - - 3%[br] –
Gravis Marketing/OANN Released Jun 11, 2020 – (V)[ad] – 50% 50% - - – –
TIPP/American Greatness PAC[A] Jun 9–11, 2020 875 (LV) – 40% 51% - - 4%[bs] 5%
Morning Consult May 27 – Jun 5, 2020 – (LV)[ad] – 48% 47% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31, 2020 1,186 (LV)[e] – 45% 48% - - 2% 4%
Cygnal (R) May 18–30, 2020 881 (LV) ± 3.3% 43.8% 47% - - 3.3%[bt] 5.9%
St. Pete Polls May 26–27, 2020 4,763 (RV) ± 1.4% 46.7% 47.5% - - 2.7%[bu] 3.1%
Morning Consult May 17–26, 2020 3,593 (LV) – 48%[bg] 47% - - – –
Morning Consult May 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[ad] – 48% 47% - - – –
Point Blank Political May 14–17, 2020 2,149 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 45% 1%[bv] <1%[bw] 2% 8%
Point Blank Political May 14–17, 2020 2,149 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% - - – –
Morning Consult May 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[ad] – 50% 45% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14, 2020 1,014 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 45% - - 3%[bx] 10%
Florida Atlantic University May 8–12, 2020 928 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 53% - - – –
Fox News Apr 18–21, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% - - 3% 7%
Quinnipiac University Apr 16–20, 2020 1,385 (RV) ± 2.6% 42% 46% - - 3% 7%
St. Pete Polls Apr 16–17, 2020 5,659 (RV) ± 1.3% 48% 48% - - – 4%
University of North Florida Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2020 3,244 (RV) ± 1.7% 40% 46% - - – 8%
AtlasIntel Mar 14–16, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 45% - - 10% –
Univision Mar 6–12, 2020 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 45% - - – 7%
Florida Atlantic University Mar 5–7, 2020 1,216 (RV) ± 2.7% 51% 49% - - – –
University of North Florida Feb, 2020 696 (LV) – 45% 45% - - – 10%[r]
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 51% - - – 8%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 668 (RV) – 48% 49% - - – 3%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 51% - - – –
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 49% 45% - - – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% - - – 8%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 46% - - – –
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 48% - - 6%[by] 3%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50.5% 49.5% - - – –
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 41% 50% - - 1% 6%
St. Pete Polls Jun 15–16, 2019 3,095 (LV) ± 1.8% 47% 47% - - – 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 50% - - – –
WPA Intelligence Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 48% 44% - - – 7%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 36% 52% – 12%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 672 (RV) – 44% 50% – 6%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 49% 44% – –

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 45% – 15%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 664 (RV) – 49% 45% – 7%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 50% 50% – –
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% – 6%
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 42% 7%[bz] 9%
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 44% 1% 9%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 41% 8%[ca] 7%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 52% 48% – –
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 47% – –

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 43% – 16%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 662 (RV) – 48% 44% – 8%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Mar 14–16, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 11% –
Univision Mar 6–12, 2020 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 42% – 8%
Florida Atlantic University Mar 5–7, 2020 1,216 (LV) ± 2.7% 53% 47% – –
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% – 11%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 671 (RV) – 48% 48% – 4%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 47% 53% – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 44% – 7%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% – –
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50.5% 49.5% – –
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 42% 48% 1% 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 49% – –

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 44% – 14%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 661 (RV) – 47% 47% – 6%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 51% – –
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% – 7%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 42% – –
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 46% 6%[by] 6%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50% 50% – –
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 47% 1% 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 828 (LV) ± 3.4% 39% 48% – 14%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Oprah
Winfrey (D) 		Other Undecided
Dixie Strategies Jan 9–10, 2018 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 24% 15% 13%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] Jun 14–16, 2019 679 (V) ± 3.8% 44% 51% 6%
Mason-Dixon Jan 14–17, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9%

with Donald Trump and generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
Quinnipiac University Mar 6–11, 2019 1,058 (V) ± 3.7% 31% 51%[cb] 18%[cc]

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 49% 8%[ca] 5%

with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Undecided
St. Leo University Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 489 (LV) ± 3.0% 46.8% 46.7% 6.5%

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 46% 8%[ca] 6%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Florida[38]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		5,668,731 51.22% +2.20%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		5,297,045 47.86% +0.04%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		70,324 0.64% −1.56%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		14,721 0.13% −0.55%
Reform Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson 		5,966 0.05% −0.05%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman 		5,712 0.05% N/A
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		3,902 0.04% −0.13%
Write-in 1,055 0.01% -0.26%
Total votes 11,067,456 100.00%

Results by county

County Donald Trump
Republican		 Joe Biden
Democratic		 Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Other votes Total
votes
% # % # % # % #
Alachua 35.63% 50,972 62.71% 89,704 0.97% 1,390 0.69% 981 143,047
Baker 84.58% 11,911 14.47% 2,037 0.66% 93 0.29% 41 14,082
Bay 70.91% 66,097 27.48% 25,614 1.08% 1,004 0.53% 498 93,213
Bradford 75.71% 10,334 23.15% 3,160 0.81% 110 0.34% 46 13,650
Brevard 57.48% 207,883 41.08% 148,549 0.88% 3,178 0.56% 2,043 361,653
Broward 34.74% 333,409 64.48% 618,752 0.32% 3,114 0.45% 4,365 959,640
Calhoun 80.68% 5,274 18.49% 1,209 0.44% 29 0.38% 25 6,537
Charlotte 62.84% 73,243 36.27% 42,273 0.48% 565 0.41% 477 116,558
Citrus 69.98% 65,352 29.01% 27,092 0.59% 548 0.42% 396 93,388
Clay 67.77% 84,480 30.74% 38,317 1.03% 1,286 0.46% 577 124,660
Collier 61.91% 128,950 37.27% 77,621 0.43% 889 0.40% 825 208,285
Columbia 72.03% 23,836 26.94% 8,914 0.68% 224 0.36% 118 33,092
DeSoto 65.58% 8,313 33.60% 4,259 0.41% 52 0.41% 52 12,676
Dixie 82.70% 6,759 16.70% 1,365 0.33% 27 0.27% 22 8,173
Duval 47.30% 233,762 51.11% 252,556 0.97% 4,788 0.62% 3,055 494,161
Escambia 56.58% 96,674 41.51% 70,929 1.26% 2,146 0.64% 1,107 170,856
Flagler 59.90% 43,043 39.19% 28,161 0.50% 359 0.42% 300 71,863
Franklin 68.16% 4,675 30.91% 2,120 0.39% 27 0.54% 37 6,859
Gadsden 31.42% 7,465 67.98% 16,153 0.40% 96 0.20% 48 23,762
Gilchrist 81.37% 7,895 17.52% 1,700 0.63% 61 0.47% 46 9,702
Glades 72.69% 3,782 26.62% 1,385 0.40% 21 0.29% 15 5,203
Gulf 74.80% 6,113 24.29% 1,985 0.59% 48 0.32% 26 8,172
Hamilton 65.33% 3,815 33.61% 1,963 0.57% 33 0.50% 29 5,840
Hardee 72.01% 6,122 27.03% 2,298 0.47% 40 0.49% 42 8,502
Hendry 61.02% 7,906 38.04% 4,929 0.50% 65 0.43% 56 12,956
Hernando 64.51% 70,412 34.37% 37,519 0.63% 686 0.49% 533 109,150
Highlands 66.75% 34,873 32.42% 16,938 0.43% 223 0.40% 209 52,243
Hillsborough 45.85% 327,398 52.71% 376,367 0.79% 5,665 0.65% 4,638 714,068
Holmes 89.01% 8,080 10.18% 924 0.53% 48 0.29% 26 9,078
Indian River 60.23% 58,872 38.72% 37,844 0.55% 534 0.50% 490 97,740
Jackson 68.97% 15,488 30.13% 6,766 0.52% 116 0.38% 86 22,456
Jefferson 52.89% 4,479 46.02% 3,897 0.54% 46 0.54% 46 8,468
Lafayette 85.42% 3,128 13.93% 510 0.38% 14 0.27% 10 3,662
Lake 59.56% 125,859 39.52% 83,505 0.66% 1,385 0.27% 565 211,314
Lee 59.09% 233,247 39.95% 157,695 0.51% 2,016 0.46% 1,800 394,758
Leon 35.14% 57,453 63.32% 103,517 0.82% 1,344 0.72% 1,162 163,476
Levy 72.24% 16,749 26.76% 6,205 0.57% 131 0.43% 100 23,185
Liberty 79.83% 2,846 19.47% 694 0.39% 14 0.31% 11 3,565
Madison 59.36% 5,576 39.89% 3,747 0.34% 32 0.40% 38 9,393
Manatee 57.47% 124,987 41.46% 90,166 0.59% 1,287 0.47% 1,032 217,472
Marion 62.44% 127,826 36.57% 74,858 0.58% 1,180 0.42% 852 204,716
Martin 61.82% 61,168 37.29% 36,893 0.45% 448 0.44% 433 98,942
Miami-Dade 45.98% 532,833 53.31% 617,864 0.29% 3,329 0.42% 4,892 1,158,918
Monroe 53.38% 25,693 45.46% 21,881 0.72% 348 0.44% 213 48,135
Nassau 72.25% 42,566 26.42% 15,564 0.97% 569 0.37% 216 58,915
Okaloosa 68.35% 79,798 29.34% 34,248 1.61% 1,881 0.70% 816 116,743
Okeechobee 71.76% 11,470 27.46% 4,390 0.41% 66 0.36% 58 15,984
Orange 37.80% 245,398 60.85% 395,014 0.72% 4,685 0.62% 4,060 649,157
Osceola 42.53% 73,480 56.31% 97,297 0.56% 964 0.60% 1,043 172,784
Palm Beach 43.21% 334,711 55.97% 433,572 0.39% 3,040 0.42% 3,274 774,597
Pasco 59.36% 179,621 39.35% 119,073 0.75% 2,265 0.55% 1,662 302,621
Pinellas 49.22% 276,209 49.44% 277,450 0.76% 4,268 0.58% 3,234 561,161
Polk 56.56% 194,586 42.16% 145,049 0.75% 2,595 0.52% 1,796 344,026
Putnam 70.05% 25,514 28.90% 10,527 0.62% 226 0.43% 155 36,422
Santa Rosa 72.19% 77,385 25.76% 27,612 1.53% 1,645 0.52% 556 107,198
Sarasota 54.71% 148,370 44.29% 120,110 0.56% 1,507 0.44% 1,182 271,169
Seminole 47.89% 125,241 50.67% 132,528 0.85% 2,215 0.60% 1,549 261,533
St. Johns 62.66% 110,946 36.06% 63,850 0.80% 1,413 0.47% 838 177,047
St. Lucie 50.38% 86,831 48.82% 84,137 0.45% 768 0.36% 613 172,349
Sumter 67.76% 62,761 31.68% 29,341 0.29% 269 0.27% 253 92,624
Suwannee 77.84% 16,410 21.27% 4,485 0.56% 119 0.33% 69 21,083
Taylor 76.45% 7,751 22.68% 2,299 0.51% 52 0.36% 36 10,138
Union 82.11% 5,133 16.85% 1,053 0.67% 42 0.37% 23 6,251
Volusia 56.42% 173,821 42.38% 130,575 0.70% 2,156 0.51% 1,557 308,109
Wakulla 69.79% 12,874 29.01% 5,351 0.73% 135 0.48% 88 18,448
Walton 75.23% 32,947 23.61% 10,338 0.77% 336 0.40% 174 43,795
Washington 80.06% 9,876 19.03% 2,347 0.56% 69 0.35% 43 12,335

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 15 of 27 congressional districts.[39]

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 65.9% 32.4% Matt Gaetz
2nd 67% 32% Neal Dunn
3rd 56% 42.8% Ted Yoho
Kat Cammack
4th 59.9% 38.9% John Rutherford
5th 36.2% 62.7% Al Lawson
6th 58.3% 40.8% Michael Waltz
7th 44.2% 54.6% Stephanie Murphy
8th 58.3% 40.6% Bill Posey
9th 46% 52.9% Darren Soto
10th 37% 62% Val Demings
11th 65.4% 33.8% Daniel Webster
12th 57.9% 41% Gus Bilirakis
13th 47.4% 51.5% Charlie Crist
14th 41.6% 57.2% Kathy Castor
15th 53.7% 45.2% Ross Spano
Scott Franklin
16th 53.6% 45.5% Vern Buchanan
17th 63.3% 35.9% Greg Steube
18th 53.9% 45.5% Brian Mast
19th 59.7% 39.6% Francis Rooney
Byron Donalds
20th 22.1% 77.3% Alcee Hastings
21st 41.2% 58.2% Lois Frankel
22nd 42.3% 57.2% Ted Deutch
23rd 41.2% 58.3% Debbie Wasserman Schultz
24th 24% 75.4% Frederica Wilson
25th 61.2% 38.2% Mario Díaz-Balart
26th 52.5% 46.9% Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Carlos Giménez
27th 48.1% 51.3% Donna Shalala
Maria Elvira Salazar

Ex-felons

United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex-crimes.[40] The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which was speculated to have created further problems for ex-felons when they voted in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.[41]

Miami-Dade County

In Miami-Dade County, the majority of Trump support came from the west and the majority of Biden support came from the east. People of Mexican, Haitian, and African descent tended to vote for Biden, while people of Cuban, Chilean and Colombian descent did so for Trump, as well as the critical Venezuelan vote swinging Republican.[42] Trump won approximately two thirds of the vote in Hialeah, whereas it was nearly evenly split four years prior.[43] Sabrina Rodriguez of Politico wrote "a vote for Trump has become about more than just him, or even the Republican Party. It's about patriotism."[44] Due to the heavy presence of the Cuban-American community, Hialeah traditionally, as of 2020, leaned towards Republican politics.[45] Trump's coattails played a role in the election of Miami Republicans Carlos A. Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar to the House of Representatives.

Residents of Cuban descent often had an antagonism against leftist movements due to associations with Fidel Castro.[46] Trump sought to attract these voters by implementing anti-Cuba policies.[47]

Additionally Trump made efforts to target other Hispanic demographics.[43]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The other five states were California, Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada, and New York.
  2. ^ a b Candidate withdrew after Super Tuesday when early voting had begun in a few counties.
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
  9. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  10. ^ a b c d e f g h i Standard VI response
  11. ^ West (B) with 1%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
  12. ^ a b c d If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  13. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  14. ^ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  15. ^ a b c d "Some other candidate" with 2%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  17. ^ a b "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  18. ^ a b c d e Includes "Refused"
  19. ^ a b c Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  20. ^ a b c Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  21. ^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
  22. ^ "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  23. ^ "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with 0%
  24. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  25. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  26. ^ a b "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  27. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  28. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 2%
  29. ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  30. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Not yet released
  31. ^ "Refused" with 3%
  32. ^ "Other third party" with 2%
  33. ^ a b c "Third party" with 2%
  34. ^ a b c "Some other candidate" with 1%
  35. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  36. ^ a b c "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  37. ^ "Other" and "None of these" with 0%
  38. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  39. ^ "Third party" with 1%
  40. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  41. ^ "One of the other party or independent tickets" with 1%
  42. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 4%
  43. ^ Under a +2 Democratic turnout model
  44. ^ Under a conservative +2 Republican turnout model
  45. ^ a b c d e f g "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  46. ^ No voters
  47. ^ "Refused" with 2%; La Riva (PSOL) with 1%; Blankenship (C), Fuente (A) and "other" with no voters
  48. ^ With the preferences of La Riva and Jorgensen voters in an election featuring only Biden and Trump
  49. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%
  50. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "other" and would not vote with no voters
  51. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 1%
  52. ^ "No one" with 1%
  53. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  54. ^ a b "Other" with 1%
  55. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  56. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
  57. ^ "Someone else" with 0%
  58. ^ Would not vote with 2%
  59. ^ a b c Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  60. ^ "Other/not sure" with 4%
  61. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  62. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  63. ^ "Other" and "Neither" 1%
  64. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  65. ^ "Third-party candidate" with 2%
  66. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  67. ^ "Other party candidate" with 5%
  68. ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  69. ^ "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  70. ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  71. ^ "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
  72. ^ "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
  73. ^ "Third party" with 2.7%
  74. ^ "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
  75. ^ "Green nominee" with 0.4%
  76. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  77. ^ a b Would not vote with 6%
  78. ^ Would not vote with 7%
  79. ^ a b c Would not vote with 8%
  80. ^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
  81. ^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ^ Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  3. ^ Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  5. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. ^ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  7. ^ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  8. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters

References

  1. ^ November 3, 2020 General Election, Florida Department of State, Division of Elections.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Cruise ship hotels, zoo parties and an NBA arena: Miami's Democratic convention pitch". miamiherald. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
  5. ^ "City of Milwaukee 1 of 3 finalists to host 2020 Democratic National Convention". FOX6Now.com. June 20, 2018. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
  6. ^ Glauber, Bill (August 22, 2018). "Selection committee for 2020 Democratic Convention will visit Milwaukee next week". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
  7. ^ Haberman, Maggie (November 4, 2019). "Trump, Lifelong New Yorker, Declares Himself a Resident of Florida". The New York Times.
  8. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Goldmacher, Shane; Thrush, Glenn (November 4, 2020). "Big gains among Latinos in the Miami area power Trump to victory in Florida". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  9. ^ "Florida Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  10. ^ "Florida 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  11. ^ "Trump calls Biden a 'Trojan horse for socialism'". money.yahoo.com. Retrieved January 8, 2021.
  12. ^ https://www.270towin.com/states/Florida
  13. ^ "The Political Graveyard: Duval County, Fla". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
  14. ^ "The Political Graveyard: Seminole County, Fla". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
  15. ^ "The Political Graveyard: Monroe County, Fla". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved April 13, 2021.
  16. ^ "March 17, 2020 Primary Election". Florida Department of State. Florida Division of Elections. March 31, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
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Further reading

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