Talk:2006–07 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/July-October

July

97P.INVEST

An early start to the season. NSLE 01:24, 1 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. NSLE 15:32, 1 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

August

98P.INVEST

98P is up. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 24.83.98.3 (talk • contribs).

Shear is actually somewhat low in this area. If anything develops this early in their season, this might be it. Definitely looks like something's trying to get going down there. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 23:23, 2 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yes it does. bob rulz 04:25, 3 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Guess not, there's nothing there anymore. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 19:24, 3 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. íslenska hurikein #12 _(samtal) 02:44, 4 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

99P.INVEST

99P is up. bob rulz 18:12, 9 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This disturbance looks pretty good already. bob rulz 08:58, 10 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Not good enough, apparently. Gone. —Cuivi é nen 06:08, 11 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

October

Week 1

90P.INVEST

9.8S 167.7E. Can it be? Is the SHEM season beginning? -- RattleMan 07:34, 7 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Interesting blob. – Ch acor 07:34, 7 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Quite early for such! It's the equivalent to early April in the Northern Hemisphere... CrazyC83 19:44, 7 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. -- RattleMan 00:50, 8 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 3

01R.INVEST

91S.INVEST

New one. Now we're seeing things.Mitchazenia V3.0 23:19, 16 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

You mean 91S, not 90. Fixed header. – Ch acor 00:28, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Where did you get all these invests from? RaNdOm26 07:36, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

91S is on FNMOC. – Ch acor 08:29, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And now it's on the main NRL. -- RattleMan 09:13, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Very, very equatorial - centred at 4.8S. – Ch acor 13:34, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's close to Madagascar. Just saw a little bit of the coast outline in the picture. RaNdOm26 15:09, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

~~17/1430 UTC 4.6S 62.9E T1.5/1.5 91S -- RattleMan 16:05, 17 October 2006 (UTC)~~[reply]

It's just been removed... -- RattleMan 16:13, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Currently it's cycling between coming back and being removed again. -- RattleMan 16:33, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC: 4.8S 63.2E, Approx 570 nm west-northwest of Diego Garcia. 20 to 25 knots sustained winds 1010 mb pressure, poor in development. -- グリフオーザー 18:05, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

17/2030 UTC 4.4S 62.1E T2.0/2.0 91S -- RattleMan 23:00, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.8S 63.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7S 62.4E, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A 172251Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS INDI- CATES SEVERAL CLOUD BANDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THIS LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUS- TAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES- SURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.-- RattleMan 02:43, 18 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Ooooh, this is interesting! RaNdOm26 09:51, 18 October 2006 (UTC)[reply] Yes it is, TCFA issued.WTXS21 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 180851ZOCT06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.5S 62.0E TO 5.1S 55.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180530Z INDI- CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.6S 61.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 4.6S 61.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1040 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOGADISHU HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY HAS SHOWN DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 190900Z.//We may soon have Tropical Cyclone 01S. If Mauritius decides to name it, it would be Anita. – Chacor 10:19, 18 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]1800UTC JTWC - 4.3S 60.7E, Approx 1000 nm east-southeast of Magodishu, Solamia winds remain 25 to 30 knots however pressure is now up to 1004 mb -- グリフオーザー 19:01, 18 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]NRL has invest at 30 knots 1004 mb -- グリフオーザー 20:21, 18 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]97A.Invest and 91S.Invest are very close to each other--Ugaap 09:52, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Different hemispheres, mate. – Chacor 13:21, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Tropical Disturbance 01RLa Réunion now monitoring it. POSITION LE 19 OCTOBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 2.9 SUD / 59.1 EST, PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1004 HPA. 153.20.95.69 08:31, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]No longer monitored. – Chacor 01:21, 20 October 2006 (UTC)[reply] Correction: 24-hourly advisories still being released, just not 6-hourly ones. TCFA cancelled. – Chacor 14:00, 20 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]JTWC 6pm UTC - Downgraded to poor, sustained winds estimated at 25 to 30 knots with 1006 mn pressure. -- グリフオーザー 00:30, 21 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Gone. -- RattleMan 17:10, 25 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]92P.INVEST2S 156.6E - グリフオーザー 03:19, 18 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]This one is interesting - it's within TCWC Port Moresby's AOR. – Chacor 05:47, 18 October 2006 (UTC)[reply] Unfortunately, we won't get to know what would happen if TCWC Port Moresby named it, at least not right now. Gone. --Coredesat 03:49, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]01P.Xavier (01F)93P.INVESTNo idea where it is. íslenskur fellibylur #12 _(samtal) 11:35, 20 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Good-looking system near 10S, 169E. [1] – Chacor 11:37, 20 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]JTWC 2:40pm UTC AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.0S 169.0E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 1005 MB PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF A CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR. -- グリフオーザー 14:38, 20 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]JTWC 6:00pm UTC -- Upgraded to Fair, 25 to 30 knots 1002 MB. Improved Organization and favorable environment. -- グリフオーザー 00:26, 21 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Unnumbered Tropical Disturbance from RSMC Nadi...Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Oct 20/2255 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTRE [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 9.9S 167.8E AT 202100 UTC SLOW MOVING. ORGANISATION HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS. A GOOD TRADE WIND FLOW PERSISTS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE DISTURBANCE IN THE AREA, BUT DO NOT DEVELOP IT FURTHER. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.– Chacor 02:01, 21 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Tropical Depression 01FTD1F by RSMC Nadi:Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Oct 21/2214 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F [1004HPA] NEAR 10.9S 168.9E AT 222100 UTC MOVING SLOW MOVING. POSITON FAIR BASED ON MTSAT/GMS-5 IR/VIS ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATION. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. A GOOD TRADE WIND FLOW PERSISTS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS [AVN/ECMWF/UKGC/GASPS] MAINTAIN THE 01F IN THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS FAIR TO MODERATE.-- RattleMan 22:39, 21 October 2006 (UTC)[reply] Oh, and TCFA:WTPS21 PGTW 212200 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 212151Z OCT 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 167.9E TO 13.5S 166.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 167.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.0S 167.9E, APPROXIMATELY 665 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 211930Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED LOWER LEVEL ORGANIZATION, INCREASING CONVECTION, AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 222200Z.//-- RattleMan 23:08, 21 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Tropical Cyclone XavierFirst named storm of the season. – Chacor 01:47, 22 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]It is now explosively intensifying. --IrfanFaiz 03:37, 22 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]An eye is clearly visible now. Hurricanehink (talk) 00:32, 23 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Shouldn't we start using hurricane infoboxes for Xavier? Also, the current track map shows it is moving towards Vanuatu. Maybe there should info included in the article about the latest Watches/Warnings. RaNdOm26 10:26, 23 October 2006 (UTC)[reply] The current infobox doesn't accomodate Shem storms. I'll try to work on one in a sandbox. As far as I know, there are no warnings yet. – Chacor 10:28, 23 October 2006 (UTC)[reply] Wow! I think the S. Hemisphere is off to a good start with a Category 4 as the first system. — Alastor Moody _{(T + C + U)} 01:55, 26 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Last advisory issued on the remnant low of Xavier. --Coredesat 22:24, 26 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Week 494P.INVEST3.5S 157E. -- RattleMan 19:27, 22 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Gone. -- RattleMan 17:10, 25 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]02F.INVEST95P.INVESTJust appeared on NRL, it's near 10.0S 176.0W. --Coredesat 22:32, 24 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Tropical Depression 02FTropical Depression 02F [1004HPA] near 11S 176W moving west 10 knots.Position poor and based on MTSAT IR/VIS animation. SST in the area is about 28C. 02F is embedded in an easterly trough and is currently being propagated westwards. Deep convection persists around the centre and at this stage there is a strong likelihood of multiple low level centres. 02F is located under the 250 hPa subtropical ridge in an area of strong diffluence. Environmental shear is minimal. Global models have picked up the system and steer it westwards but show reluctance in developing it. The potential for 02F to develop in a tropical cyclone is low to moderate in the next 24 to 48 hours. -- グリフオーザー 00:24, 25 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Looks fairly good right now. JTWC upgraded it to fair. --Coredesat 01:46, 25 October 2006 (UTC)[reply] And it's gone from RSMC Nadi's website. --Coredesat 22:21, 26 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]96P.INVEST12.3S 178.2E. -- RattleMan 05:12, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Gone. --Coredesat 01:38, 30 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]03F.INVEST97P.INVEST8S 173E. -- RattleMan 07:24, 31 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]Tropical Disturbance 03FTROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.6S 179.6W AT 010000 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. POSSIBILITY OF MORE THAN ONE CENTRE IN THIS AREA [ALONG 180]. ORGANISATION IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IMPROVED. CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO LLCC. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT CAPTURED THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW. -- グリフオーザー 02:10, 1 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]Tropical Depression 03FNadi now naming this system a depression -- グリフオーザー 20:47, 1 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]97P is dropped from the NRL but tropical disturbance advisories continue for TD 03F. -- グリフオーザー 05:35, 3 November 2006 (UTC)[reply] Gone from RSMC Nadi's website. --Coredesat 12:30, 3 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]