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Science Based Medicine source

Section on COVID-19 views

A couple of editors have been trying to add a paragraph on Makary's COVID-19 views, but have been reverted a few times by 100.16.169.167 who has raised a few different criticisms. Here is the most recent version of the paragraph:

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Makary has been a critic of COVID-19 mitigation policies that led to shutdowns of businesses and schools as well as non-targeted efforts to mandate vaccination. He describes his views as "different from the 'standard party line'".[1][2] Makary was an early supporter of universal masking, writing a New York Times op-ed in May 2020 in which he suggested it would enable safe reopening of businesses and schools.[3] When COVID-19 vaccines became available, Makary argued in a February 2021 op-ed in The Wall Street Journal that the United States would achieve herd immunity for COVID-19 around April 2021, and later criticized Anthony Fauci for predicting that 75-80% vaccination rates would be required for herd immunity.[4][5] This prediction later proved to be incorrect, in part due to the rise of the Delta variant.[6] Makary considers himself pro-vaccine, but has also criticized vaccination mandates for populations other than healthcare workers, highlighting the risk of myocarditis in young male vaccine recipients as a reason to exercise caution.[2]

References

  1. ^ Dan Rodricks (2021-08-31). "Dan Rodricks: A Hopkins surgeon turns Fox pandemic pundit. Some cheer, some groan. | COMMENTARY". Baltimore Sun. Retrieved 2021-12-19.
  2. ^ a b Ward, Myah (2021-10-13). "The Hopkins doc vs. the vaccine consensus". Politico. Retrieved 2021-11-09.
  3. ^ "Opinion | How to Reopen America Safely - The New York Times". Nytimes.com. 2020-05-14. Retrieved 2021-12-19.
  4. ^ Makary, Marty (2021-02-18). "Opinion: We'll Have Herd Immunity by April". Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved 2021-02-19.
  5. ^ https://www.wsj.com/articles/herd-immunity-is-near-despite-faucis-denial-11616624551 [bare URL]
  6. ^ "'We'll Have Herd Immunity by April': Reflections on a Failed Prediction". Science-Based Medicine. 2021-07-25. Retrieved 2021-08-22.

Here are some objections that 100.16.169.167 has raised to this or previous versions of this paragraph (which was initially written by User:Editor45687):

  • It was based on a single source and seemed written to attack Makary for making an incorrect prediction, without covering other aspects of his work or thoughts on the pandemic. (This was true of the first version of the paragraph, but IMO has since been addressed.)
  • It incorrectly describes Makary's views as conservative, when he does not have a political agenda. (I removed this statement from an earlier version of the paragraph in response to this criticism.)
  • It does not list all of Makary's positions, and also other pages (e.g. Scott Gottlieb) do not highlight mistakes or failed predictions they made, so this is unfairly negative. (This is the criticism brought up about the version of the paragraph above.)

To speak plainly, I think it is notable that Makary is a well-credentialed and respected doctor who has advocated a more permissive approach to COVID-19. I think it's clear that this has been an approach he has called for consistently - e.g. advocating for universal masking while others were calling for lockdown, advocating for an early reopening when others were saying that we should wait until vaccines were universally available, and advocating for "living with COVID" when others were calling for measures to contain the Delta/Omicron variant surges. I also think it's clear that in the US, this is generally aligned with conservative political views, and Makary has this year mostly been publishing his views in more conservative media properties such as the WSJ opinion page, Fox News, or the NY Post (in addition to editing a more neutral COVID digest in MedPage Today). I think some people are objecting to characterizing his views as "conservative" because there is a perception that all conservatives also hold more fringe views like advocating ivermectin/HCQ or arguing that the COVID death toll is made up, neither of which he has done.

This has mostly been removed from the above version of the paragraph, but I also think it is important to call out where Makary's predictions have been incorrect or are misleading (as we should be doing for all COVID pundits/influencers). In particular, I think it would be good to highlight that the risk of vaccine-induced myocarditis in young men, even if slightly elevated from background, is low in absolute terms (I think it is 0.0011%, and the risk of post-COVID myocarditis is higher).

Would appreciate others' thoughts. GlobeGores (talk page | user page) 19:07, 28 December 2021 (UTC)[reply]

To also speak plainly GlobeGores, the entire Biden administration has taken a stance against lockdowns, and are now advocating “living with COVID”. Makary’s views are actually completely mainstream in the United States and are not aligned with either conservative or liberal views. Do you find daylight between what Makary has advocated and the current approach of the Biden administration? Makary still advocates for vaccines. His page is now being overtaken by some people who seem to want to tarnish his reputation. Once again, I point to the wiki pages of many other voices in the pandemic that don’t resemble the state of Dr. Makary’s and ask what the goal of all this is?
This is a war, against a pathogen, and in wars, there is a fog. Every single person who has spoken about COVID has been wrong about something. Are we now holding people to be infallible? Seems like each wiki page will be a pretty dark place if that is the case.
Makary has been right a lot more than he has been wrong, he has worked to follow the data, and his positions now represent the current administrations position on COVID. I would say he has actually been ahead of a lot of people. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 72.81.153.180 (talk) 02:32, 29 January 2022 (UTC)[reply]
  • "Living with COVID" has always been what scientists have predicted we would eventually have to do.
  • "Against lockdowns" depends on the situation. Being against lockdowns in principle is stupid and dangerous. Trying to avoid them when they are not necessary is fine.
  • Scientific truth is not decided by politicians.
  • And finally, Wikipedia says what reliable sources say. Wikipedia doesn't care about what Wikipedia editors think.
See also WP:SIGN and WP:INDENT.

COVID edits

Dr. Makary has been one of the leading voices on the pandemic since February 2020. He worked to warn the general public when the pandemic threat was being downplayed by Dr. Fauci as a “low risk” even when he knew it was an imminent threat.

Dr. Makary has worked to follow the science throughout the pandemic and in reality, pretty much every person has been wrong about something in regards to COVID. The White House, the CDC, and pretty much every person on TV. If we are to go down the road of calling out everything each voice got wrong in the pandemic we are going to be here a long time. I would say Dr. Makary has probably been about 80-90% accurate on most of the things he has said and done, and he has always advocated for vaccines and masking (which are the two best defenses we have against COVID).

If you want to go down the road of calling out everything he has said right and wrong, we can do that, and then we can do it for each major voice in the pandemic. Or maybe we just not try to hold every person to an unrealistic standard and realize this is a dynamic public health situation. 100.16.169.167 (talk) 05:03, 31 December 2021 (UTC)[reply]

I'm quite confused - what about the paragraph I posted above is objectionable to you? Since there is obviously a diversity of opinions about whether Makary's views are correct and helpful/harmful, I tried to take as much opinion as possible out of the description, including any substantial criticism, and tried to neutrally frame Makary's positions are. If the paragraph is removed, we would have no idea at all that Makary has been a prominent commentator on COVID-19 matters, which I think is an important fact about him that should be known. Surely that is not your ideal outcome? GlobeGores (talk page | user page) 15:56, 9 January 2022 (UTC)[reply]

How many surgeries has Dr. Makary performed? How many lives has he saved through his work in the operating room? Those are important facts that should also be known.

What the heck does this section have to do with Dr. Makary?

In January 2022, Ashish Jha, speaking on Kara Swisher's New York Times podcast Sway, criticized Makary as an example of a "quasi expert." Jha stated "I take someone like a Marty Makary, who’s at Hopkins, who has said some smart things. And he’s a smart guy. But he is not afraid to go way beyond his area of expertise. And he has never been held back by being wrong."[7]

Are we now just posting quotes from other doctors about Makary? Makary was out there very early on trying to warm the American people and get people to act in the interest of public health. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/10/dr-marty-makary-on-coronavirus-wuhan-could-happen-here.html

Honestly, you need to re-read the page as someone who is unbiased? All I see is a lot of people who want to bring down a great surgeon who actively has worked to follow the science. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 72.81.153.180 (talk) 02:28, 27 January 2022 (UTC)[reply]

If you have a reliable source on his achievements as a surgeon, bring it. We cannot conjure the information you want out of nothing.
We do have reliable sources on the false things he said about COVID, that's why they are in the article. --Hob Gadling (talk) 08:25, 27 January 2022 (UTC)[reply]

How about you use PubMed.gov to see all Makary’s publications which are here https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=makary%20ma to see his contributions to medicine.

Or, you could contact John Cameron at Johns Hopkins, the man who perfected the Whipple Procedure and who literally has a floor named after him at Johns Hopkins and who trained Makary. Both men are still are Johns Hopkins and you would think that if Makary wasn’t an excellent surgeon he wouldn’t still be there.

I go back to my point here with Ashisha Ja, what does he have to do with Makary? Why are we having him be quoted in a section about Makary.

Here, Scott Gotleib, in Jim 2020 said the pandemic would be over in January 2021, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/07/02/scott-gottlieb-covid-19-pandemic-over-by-january-squawk-box.html

Yet I don’t see you blasting that all over his wiki page. You have a serious bias problem. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 72.81.153.180 (talk) 02:00, 29 January 2022 (UTC)[reply]

  • "Write this into the article!"
  • "We can't, we do not have sources for it."
  • Then go search for them!"
Don't you see anything wrong with that dialog? You are not our boss who tells us what to do. If you want it done, do it yourself. --Hob Gadling (talk)

Semi-protected edit request on 30 January 2022

PLEASE DELETE the last line of the first section "He has been repeatedly criticized by infectious disease specialists for overstating the protection offered by previous COVID-19 infection and for making public health recommendations "beyond his area of expertise" that have been characterized as dubious and misleading.[6][7][8][9]"

All public figures are constantly criticized. And respected scientists are often criticized by both extremes. There is a healthy dialog between scientists and these criticisms pointed out above are designed to create the notion that there is one group that is correct on Covid recommendations and that he is outside of the the correct thinking. Dr. Makary, like all respected doctors in the public eye everyday, does not agree with the CDC on everything. The addition of the sentence above is an attempt to paint him as fringe. He is not. He is constantly recommends vaccination and has accurately predicted the power of natural immunity from prior Covid infection. He has written extensively about this topic: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-high-cost-of-disparaging-natural-immunity-to-covid-vaccine-mandates-protests-fire-rehire-employment-11643214336?mod=trending_now_opn_3

The line added recently also suggests that he is not an expert and is speaking "making public health recommendations "beyond his area of expertise" but: Dr. Makary studied epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health where he earned a masters degree in public health Dr. Makary has served on the faculty of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health for over 16 years Dr. Makary has been elected to the prestigious National Academy of Medicine for his achievements in public health Dr. Makary also treats Covid patients and manages special issues of infection control as chief of the Johns Hopkins Center for Islet Transplantation Dr. Makary has published landmark articles in the medical literature on Covid

Part of the ugliness of the pandemic has been the attempt to smear scientists as non-experts when people have a different opinion. In fact, Dr. Fauci nevere did a fellowship in Infectious Diseases. His fellowship training was in Rheumatology Many other "Covid experts" are emergency room doctors and people without a degree in public health It's not appropriate to characterize a long-distinguished career of a Hopkins faculty member by pointing out the a few random criticisms on blog posts.

In addition, please delete this part of the opening section "medical commentator. He practices surgical oncology and gastrointestinal laparoscopic surgery at the Johns Hopkins Hospital, is Mark Ravitch Chair in Gastrointestinal Surgery at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine,"

Dr. Makary is not practicing surgery and is not the Mark Ravitch chair. This was added by critics in an attempt to make him appear as a non-public health expert. His New York Times bestselling books chronicle his work in public policy and public health. Ashley.Peters87 (talk) 05:11, 30 January 2022 (UTC)[reply]

See those numbers up there, "[6][7][8][9]"? Those are (in the article) links to reliable sources. If you want to delete what they say, you will need to find better reasons.
You will also need reliable sources for adding the stuff you want to add. Wall Street Journal is a bad source for scientific questions; they promote climate change denial and generally every sort of science denial they hope will be good for the Dow Jones. --Hob Gadling (talk) 05:44, 30 January 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Hob Gadking - Source #8 is not a reputable/reliable source. Your opinion on the WSJ is also demonstrating pretty strong biases and you should revisit https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Neutral_point_of_view/FAQ#Dealing_with_biased_contributors

UnbiasedAgent (talk) 11:02, 1 February 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Nonsense. Health Feedback is a good source for medical science. WSJ may be a good source on money and stocks and markets, but definitely not on science because it promotes WP:FRINGE theories.
Wikipedia is science-based. See WP:ABIAS, WP:CHARLATANS and WP:YWAB. That is not my fault, but I like it. If you do not, this is not the right website for you. --Hob Gadling (talk) 11:20, 1 February 2022 (UTC)[reply]
@Ashley.Peters87: He has written extensively about this topic. I don't think this was ever in dispute. As someone with apparent familiarity with Dr. Makary's writings over the pandemic, I am curious if he has published any retractions or updates for past predictions he's gotten wrong. Particularly his We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April 2021 article. While I don't think the article should WP:SYNTH together a running tally of what he's gotten right or wrong, such a retraction might itself be notable, and provide a stronger response to the criticism section where other experts rightly point out his erroneous predictions. It's a lot easier to come to the defense of an expert who self-corrects, than a pundit who makes predictions that they only refer back to when they turned out to be correct. If you can share high-quality sources from other experts supporting Dr. Makary, those would be helpful as well. Bakkster Man (talk) 16:41, 1 February 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Bakkster Would you accept Dr. Makary’s own words? Please watch the video where Dr. Makary addresses the WSJ article as well most of the criticism in this Wiki. For just the WSJ article, pick it up at the 7 min mark for 5 mins. I still suggest watching the entire episode.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XS6OSadejLk — Preceding unsigned comment added by UnbiasedAgent (talkcontribs) 00:50, 2 February 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Appreciate the link to a follow-up by Dr. Makary. Not quite what I was hoping to hear, and certainly not what I would characterize as an open discussion of what he thinks he got wrong (he spends basically the whole segment talking about how wrong everyone else was, and why it's not his fault). Lines up with the critiques we cite in the article, and is honestly what I expected from his later editorials. In short, I'm not sure this counts as a retraction, or anything else that would be notable for the article. But I again appreciate your satisfying my curiosity on the topic. Bakkster Man (talk) 13:58, 2 February 2022 (UTC)[reply]
Reading back, I'll clarify what I mean by what he thinks he got wrong. Sidestepping his actual prediction (My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts.) to blame the headline writer for being deceptive, without mentioning the actual case rate in the US (14 per 100k on May 1st). Blaming Delta for the prediction falling apart, without discussing what happened before July. And just not addressing the possibility that behavior and seasonality could have played a role in case rates (did the March/April rebound in cases align with his prediction that the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity?). I say this not to WP:SYNTH anything into the article, but to explain the context in which I see the article's criticism being notable, and why I pushed back at the original comment that Dr. Makary's own comments on the topic were sufficient to be considered reliable and that criticism was undeserved. Bakkster Man (talk) 14:34, 2 February 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Once again I am struggling to see a fair assessment of the leading voices medical voices in the pandemic. Between Anthony Fauci, Scott Gottlieb and Dr. Makary, Dr. Makary's is the only Wiki page where editors are going out of their way to leave a negative impression.

In February/March 2020, Dr. Makary worked to warn the American Public of the threat of COVID-19 and that the US population was living in a bubble thinking they were somehow not going to get impacted by COVID. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/dr-marty-makary-on-coronavirus-wuhan-could-happen-here.html. Contrast this with Dr. Fauci in January - early March saying the "risk is low" https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/17/nih-disease-official-anthony-fauci-risk-of-coronavirus-in-u-s-is-minuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/ and https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idOVC3S6T3Z. At the same time, Dr. Makary was advocating for the American Public to prepare for large impact to the American populace.

In May, Makary advocated for universal masking https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/opinion/reopen-america-coronavirus-lockdown.html and it has been well documented that Fauci did not advocate for universal masking for a while https://nypost.com/2021/06/03/fauci-emails-show-his-flip-flopping-on-wearing-masks-to-fight-covid/

In the fall of 2020 with many people succumbing to COVID-19, Makary criticized the FDA for not approving the MRNA Vaccines fast enough. https://www.foxnews.com/health/dr-marty-makary-coronavirus-vaccine-fda-approval-timetable.

In early 2021 Makary advocated for getting COVID vaccine shots into as many people as possible versus holding second doses, which was the UK strategy that proved effective at reducing morbidity and mortality in the UK. https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/first-covid-vaccine-dose-dr-marty-makary

Makary advocated that data on natural immunity also be factored into assessments for vaccination and boosters. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/09/15/natural-immunity-vaccine-mandate/. Data out of South Africa, a country with very low vaccination rate, saw limited severe disease in the recent Omicron wave and that was attributed to many scientists to both vaccination and natural immunity. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/south-africa-says-vaccines-and-natural-immunity-are-limiting-latest-covid-wave

You may not like Dr. Makary, but the facts are the facts. Every single person in here keeps quoting the WSJ article on Herd Immunity from 2021 article as a reason to completely misrepresent Dr. Makary and the facts. In that ZDogg podcast Makary says that he didn't get to choose the headline but he dis say "At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life." He based his report on "the current trajectory" and the trajectory changed due to Delta. If you don't like the headline, take it up with the WSJ, if you don't like the article, then you didn't read it with an unbiased lense.

Finally, Anthony Fauci in November 2020 said the pandemic would most likely be over thanks to vaccines https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-12/covid-won-t-be-pandemic-for-long-thanks-to-vaccines-fauci-says. Fauci also said that the US would have herd immunity by March/April 2021. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/15/946714505/fauci-predicts-u-s-could-see-signs-of-herd-immunity-by-late-march-or-early-april

Like I have said many times, the editors on here haven't really done the research to understand the positions and the wiki page by Dr. Makary is being taken over by some people with a negative agenda. — Preceding unsigned comment added by UnbiasedAgent (talkcontribs) 17:08, 2 February 2022 (UTC)[reply]

@UnbiasedAgent: "In that ZDogg podcast Makary says that he didn't get to choose the headline but he dis say "At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life." He based his report on "the current trajectory" and the trajectory changed due to Delta. If you don't like the headline, take it up with the WSJ, if you don't like the article, then you didn't read it with an unbiased lense." I thought I covered this thoroughly enough in my followup, but I'll address two elements again.
  • In April, COVID was not 'mostly gone', with the national average case rate still being right around the CDC's threshold between "High" and "Substantial". Even by June, the country never averaged in the "Low" transmission range. This is all prior to Delta in July, so deflecting criticism by using it as a scapegoat makes no sense. The linked interview scapegoated, rather than addressing this head on.
  • The concern is less that he was wrong (by nature, predictions will often be wrong), and (as the citations in the article say) more the level of confidence and certainty placed in the prediction, along with flaws in the methodology used to make the prediction. Being wrong is one thing, being wrong after saying those who disagreed with him were trying to manipulate the public by hiding the truth is another. As is saying your prediction is based on based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature when reliable third parties point out that it's really back-of-the-envelope rough estimates of natural immunity (rather than peer-reviewed studies making such an estimate, as others typically cited) and major assumptions like Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays (referencing a trend after the holidays, I might add).
If the concern is simply with using the headline, we can replace it with his direct quote: "Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April". I'll make that edit now.
It all goes back to whether or not reliable sources provided notable critiques, and they did. Particularly as he was the contrarian view, this is something that we typically note in accordance with guidelines including WP:FRINGE. To put it plainly: it would be unencyclopedic and non-neutral to ignore that his opinion was the minority, and the critiques from peers help provide that context. Bakkster Man (talk) 17:47, 2 February 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Bakkster - You are proving my point that you and some of the editors here are hyper focused on the WSJ article in how you frame Dr. Makary's positions throughout this pandemic. I would say that Dr. Makary's positions, while at some point in time they were contrarian were often correct. Was he contrarian to say that the COIVD-19 pandemic would impact the US population in Feb/March 2020. Yes. Did it impact the US Population in March 2020? Yes. Was he contrarian to call for universal masking in May 2020? Yes. Was universal masking to protect against infection the correct position? Yes. Was he contrarian in calling for an approach that focused on single MRNA vaccine doses in as many arms as possible to limit severe disease. Yes. Was this strategy proven true by the UK data. Yes.

These are all cited above and I will rewrite his page accordingly, showing his positions in a timeline on what Dr. Makary was correct and incorrect about as opposed to using quotes from other pandemic voices (which is what his page mostly consists of).

To be fair and objective (with sources to support each of these statements) I will to reframe the paragraph in the heading of the Makary page to go from the current biased perspective:

"During the COVID-19 pandemic, Makary has been an outspoken opponent of vaccine mandates, CDC policies, and restrictions at colleges and universities.[4][5] He has been repeatedly criticized by infectious disease specialists for overstating the protection offered by previous COVID-19 infection and for making public health recommendations "beyond his area of expertise" that have been characterized as dubious and misleading.[6][7][8][9]"

To something more unbiased (and supported by a wide array of sources):

"During the COVID-19 pandemic, Makary has been a proponent of taking the COIVD-19 pandemic as a true public health threat, masking, and early vaccination strategies that prioritized maximum coverage against severe disease similar to the UK vaccination strategy. Dr. Makary has also been an outspoken opponent of vaccine mandates, various FDA & CDC policies, and restrictions at colleges and universities.[4][5]" — Preceding unsigned comment added by UnbiasedAgent (talkcontribs) 18:50, 2 February 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Feel free to take a stab at it, my only concern is that it not whitewash the legitimate criticism. Particularly that WSJ editorial that is one of the most notable examples of his outspokenness. Bakkster Man (talk) 19:15, 2 February 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I won't be whitewashing over that specific article as it was a rather noteworthy inflection point in the pandemic. I will also add that Makary and Fauci both put out statements/articles to similar effect. Fauci's was https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/15/946714505/fauci-predicts-u-s-could-see-signs-of-herd-immunity-by-late-march-or-early-april and Makary's was https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731. Like I have said many times, I don't have a problem pointing out where a specific voice in this pandemic was proven wrong by the nature of the virus, I just think we should be balanced across the spectrum of voices and note where those were correct as well as incorrect. Some people were ahead on specific points, some behind. Right now, Makary's page does not represent that balance, which the links I have provided show and that is of concern. Specifically it seems some have an agenda here that if they just read the links I provided will show that there is more to the story than a single article that at the time wasn't different from other scientific voices. I would posit that if you look at both what Fauci said in December 2020 and what Makary said in February 2021 that Makary was very far from a Contrarian. How could he be if Fauci said we would have Herd Immunity by March/April? — Preceding unsigned comment added by UnbiasedAgent (talkcontribs) 21:19, 2 February 2022 (UTC)[reply]