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Economic impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

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The economic impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine began in late February 2022, in the days after the Russian Federation recognized two break-away republics and authorized use of military force against Ukraine. The subsequent economic sanctions have targeted large parts of the Russian economy, Russian oligarchs, and members of the Government of Russia.[1][2][3][4][5] Russia has responded with sanctions of its own. Both the conflict and the sanctions have had a strongly negative impact on the world economic recovery during the ongoing COVID-19 recession.

Background

See also: Russian financial crisis (2014–2016) and International sanctions during the Russo-Ukrainian War

Beginning in 2014, Russia has been facing sanctions over its annexation of Crimea which had stunted the nation's economic growth.[6][7][8][9][10] In 2020, the COVID-19 recession[11][12][13][14] and the oil price war with Saudi Arabia also affected the Russian economy. Additional sanctions occurred in the lead-up to the invasion in 2021.[15][16] The Russian stock market declined by twenty percent during the military buildup.[17]

Impact on markets

The 2022 attacks and the subsequent economic sanctions had a severe impact on the Russian economy.

Cost of food and crops

Wheat prices surged to their highest prices since 2008 in response to the 2022 attacks.[18] Ukraine is the fourth-largest exporter of corn and wheat and the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil, with Russia and Ukraine together exporting 29% of the world's wheat supply and 75% of world sunflower oil exports. The benchmark Chicago Board of Trade March wheat futures contract reached its highest price since 2012 on 25 February, with the prices of corn and soybean also spiking. The American Bakers Association president warned that the price of anything made with grain would begin rising as all the grain markets are interrelated. The chief agricultural economist for Wells Fargo stated that Ukraine will likely be severely limited in their ability to plant crops in spring 2022 and lose an agricultural year, while an embargo on Russian crops would create more inflation of food prices. Recovering crop production capabilities may take years even after fighting has stopped.[19]

Surging wheat prices resulting from the conflict have strained countries such as Egypt, which are highly dependent upon Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports, and have provoked fears of social unrest.[20] On 24 February, the Chinese government announced that it would drop all restrictions on Russian wheat as part of an agreement that had been reached earlier in February;[21] the South China Morning Post called this a potential "lifeline" for the Russian economy.[22] On 4 March, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations reported that the world Food Price Index reached an all-time high in February, posting a 24% year-over-year increase. Most of the data for the February report was compiled before the invasion, but analysts said a prolonged conflict could have a major impact on grain exports.[23][24]

Crude oil

As a result of the invasion, prices for Brent oil rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. In total from 22 February when sanctions started to 28 February when sanctions on Russia's Central Bank were applied, the price of West Texas Intermediate and Brent rose by roughly $5/bbl.[25][26]

On 27 February, BP, one of the world's seven largest oil and gas companies and the single largest foreign investor in Russia, announced it was divesting from Rosneft.[27] The Rosneft interest comprises about half of BP's oil and gas reserves and a third of its production. The divestment may cost the company up to $25 billion and analysts noted that it was unlikely that BP would be able to recover a fraction of this cost.[28] The same day, the Government Pension Fund of Norway, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, announced that it would divest itself from its Russian assets. The fund owned about 25 billion Norwegian krone ($2.83 billion) in Russian company shares and government bonds.[29]

On 28 February, the Government of Canada announced a ban on Russian crude oil imports to Canada due to the invasion; according to the Government of Canada it was not importing crude oil from Russia at the time when the ban was announced.[30][31]

On 2 March the stocks of Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil which have secondary listings in London had lost respectively 99.2%, 88.1% and 99.6% of their value year-to-date.[32] In September 2021 Lukoil and Rosneft had a combined market capitalization of $140 billion, by 2 March their combined market cap stood at just $9.3 billion, erasing $130 billion in value.[33] Due to low demand for Russian crude, the benchmark Russian Crude Oil Urals oil was trading at a $18 discount to Brent and still struggling to find purchasers as oil traders feared sanctions.[32]

It was estimated by a Energy Aspects, a consultancy, that up to 70% of Russian Crude was "struggling to find buyers" as its normal export market of Europe sought crude instead from the Middle East. While sanctions and the toxicity of being seen to do business in Russia were major risk factors, another was the difficulty of the wartime situation in the Black Sea. This led to major shipping companies requiring war insurance for tankers picking up from Novorossiysk, Russia's primary oil export terminal. The difficulties of insurance also affected Kazakh crude which uses Novorossiysk for its Tengiz field.[34]

On 8 March US President Joe Biden announced a ban on oil from Russia, telling reporters, "We're banning all imports of Russian oil and gas energy. That means Russian oil will no longer be acceptable in US ports and the American people will deal another powerful blow to Putin's war machine."[35] Germany's Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck cautioned, "If we do not obtain more gas next winter and if deliveries from Russia were to be cut then we would not have enough gas to heat all our houses and keep all our industry going."[36]

International organizations and corporations

Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the conflict poses a substantial economic risk for the region and internationally, and added that the Fund could help other countries impacted by the conflict, complementary to a $2.2 billion loan package being prepared to assist Ukraine. David Malpass, the president of the World Bank Group, said that the conflict would have far-reaching economic and social effects and reported that the bank was preparing options for significant economic and fiscal support to Ukrainians and the region.[37]

Corporate boycotts and removals of service

Main article: 2022 boycott of Russia and Belarus

Many international retail and wholesale companies announced a suspension or end to their operations in Russia and in many cases also Belarus. Some of the companies boycotting Russia and Belarus are:

Stock markets, banking sector, and the ruble

In Russia, the first round of economic sanctions in response to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine had an immediate effect. The Russian stock market crashed, falling 39%, as measured by the RTS Index, on 24 February, the first day of the invasion, recovering over 26% in the following day; however, on 28 February, a Monday, the Moscow stock exchange closed for the day because of the "developing situation". The Moscow stock exchange remained closed on Tuesday and Wednesday as well, marking the longest stock market closure since October 1998.[77] It further remained closed until 21 March 2022, marking almost a full month of closure.[78][79]

The ruble fell to record lows as Russians rushed to exchange money.[80][81][82][83][84] The Moscow and St Petersburg Stock Exchanges were suspended.[85] The Central Bank of Russia announced its first market interventions since the 2014 annexation of Crimea to stabilize the market. It also raised interest rates to 20% and banned foreigners from selling local securities.[86] The sanctions put Russia's sovereign wealth fund at risk of disappearing.[87] Long lines and empty ATMs have been reported in Russian cities.[88][89]

A second round of sanctions involved various Russian banks being removed from SWIFT, and direct sanctions on the Russian Central Bank. The value of the ruble fell 30% against the U.S. dollar, to as low as ₽119/$1 as of 28 February.[90] The Russian central bank raised interest rates to 20% as a result. In an attempt to balance the sinking ruble, it temporarily shut down the Moscow Stock Exchange, mandated that all Russian companies sell 80% of foreign exchange reserves, and prohibited foreigners from liquidating assets in Russia.[91][92] On 7 March, the ruble was reported to be as low as ₽142.46/$1.[93]

Also on 28 February, Mastercard Inc. blocked multiple Russian financial institutions from its payment network.[94] On 1 March, VISA Inc. announced that it had blocked those on the sanction list and that they were "prepared to comply with additional sanctions that may be implemented". Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, announced that it would block Russian individuals who have been sanctioned but would not unilaterally freeze all Russian users accounts.[95] Coinbase, a cryptocurrency exchange platform, blocked 25,000 cryptocurrency wallet addresses related to Russia, believing them to have engaged in illicit activity.[96] However, Coinbase also said that it would "not institute a blanket ban on all Coinbase transactions involving Russian addresses".[97]

On 2 March, Russian listed securities trading on the London market fell sharply before the London Stock Exchange suspended trade of 27 Russian securities. "The FTSE Russell index business has removed Russian listings from its indices, the London Stock Exchange has suspended trading in 27 Russian listed securities" stated London Stock Exchange CEO David Schwimmer.[98] Of the most severe losses, Sberbank was down 99.72% year-to-date to trade for around a single penny, Lukoil was down 99.2%, Polyus was down 95.58%, Gazprom was down 93.71%, and Rosneft was down 92.52%.[98]

Impact on population

Due to the deteriorating economic situation in Russia, coupled with civil and political unrest, people have fled the country.[99] A journalist who fled to Georgia wrote on his Facebook page, "Do you think we are all tourists...We are refugees...We ran not from bullets, bombs and missiles, but from prison."[100] With large sections of airspace closed to Russian aircraft, flights from Russia to Tel Aviv, Israel; Istanbul, Turkey; Yerevan, Armenia; Baku, Azerbaijan; and Tbilisi, Georgia were sold out for many days, as well as buses into Baltic states. One Latvia-based Russian tech worker, seeing high demand to leave the country, chartered a flight and filled the approximately 160 seats within 24 hours. The wave of emigration has caused many officials and analysts to warn of a possible significant long-term drag on the economy, especially if the emigration is permanent.[101]

Those staying in Russia face surging inflation and unemployment, expensive credit, capital controls, restricted travel, and shortages of goods. Analysts have identified similarities with conditions in the decade following the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War.[102]

Due to Russia’s full-scale invasion in Ukraine, several leading foreign tech companies withdrew from Russia or suspended operations. On the other hand the Russian authorities also doubled down on the use of their “sovereign internet” technology to block access to numerous independent media and social media platforms. Altogether, it enabled Russia to put the entire country in digital isolation.[103]

Opposition to sanctions

Main article: International sanctions during the Russo-Ukrainian War § Opposition to sanctions
See also: Economic sanctions § Effectiveness of economic sanctions

China expressed opposition to sanctions against Russia.[104] Nations and individuals that oppose sanctions against Russia state that sanctions do not generally result in a change in the policies of the sanctioned nation[105][106] and that sanctions mostly hurt the civilian population who have little control over the issues pertaining to foreign policy.[107][108]

See also

References

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