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Finland–NATO relations

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Finland–NATO relations
Map indicating locations of Finland and NATO

Finland
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Foreign relations

Finland is one of six members of the European Union that are not members of NATO. Finland has had formal relations with NATO since 1994, when it joined the Partnership for Peace programme. The country maintains positive relations with the organisation and the possibility of membership has been a topic of debate in the country since the end of the Cold War. Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the debate turned in favour of NATO membership, and the Finnish President and Prime Minister have declared that Finland should join NATO, with an application likely to be submitted in May 2022.

Ratification timeline

Event Date
Partnership for Peace 1994-05-09

Co-operation

Finland has sent peacekeepers to Kosovo as part of the NATO-led Kosovo Force. In this image, two Finnish soldiers are receiving a briefing from an Irish soldier.

Finland participates in nearly all sub-areas of the Partnership for Peace programme, and has provided peacekeeping forces to both the Afghanistan and Kosovo missions.[1] Finland maintains close relations with NATO and purchases military equipment from members of the alliance, including F-35 Lightning II aircraft, and newly-procured equipment must follow NATO standards.[2]

Finland has participated in the US-led BALTOPS exercises along with many NATO countries and other Partners for Peace; shown here are Finnish soldiers taking part in BALTOPS 2009 in Sweden.

In April 2014, while Carl Haglund was Defence Minister, the government announced that they would sign a memorandum of understanding with NATO [fi] on Finland's readiness to receive military assistance and to aid NATO in equipment maintenance. However, Haglund emphasized that this memorandum would not be a step towards membership.[3]

Membership debate

History

Since the 1990s and across multiple governments, the Finnish position has been that joining NATO has not been necessary and it has been preferable to retain an independent defence policy, but, if conditions change, the country may still exercise the option to join NATO.[4] Removing barriers to effectively exercising the option to join an alliance (for example, by increasing interopability) is a part of this policy.[5]

The possibility of Finland's membership in NATO was one of the most important issues debated in relation to the Finnish presidential election of 2006, and continues to be a significant issue in Finnish politics.[1] In 2007, Finland made various technical preparations for membership, with the then Defence Minister Jyri Häkämies eager to pursue NATO membership.[6] Public interest in the issue decreased in subsequent years.

Finnish think tank EVA [fi], which has regularly commissioned opinion polls on NATO membership, noted in its 2015 report a downward trend in the percent opposed that started in 1998, including a steep decline after the 2012 presidential election.[7] In March 2014, during Russia's annexation of Crimea, one survey showed only 22 percent supported membership, though a second showed that 53 percent would support membership if Finnish leadership recommended it.[8] Support for a military alliance with neighbor Sweden was also high, at 54 percent,[9] and Finland could possibly seek an enlarged role for NORDEFCO.[10] Finnish Minister of Defence Carl Haglund suggested that a referendum on NATO membership could be held sometime after the 2015 parliamentary election.[11]

In January 2022, Prime Minister Sanna Marin said that Finland had a real option of applying NATO membership if it chooses to do so, but she said it was "very unlikely" it would happen during her term as Prime Minister.[12][13] On 24 February 2022, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, she reiterated that while Finland was "not currently facing an immediate military threat," joining NATO was still a possibility, noting that "the debate on NATO membership in Finland will change."[14] On 25 February, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson threatened Finland and Sweden with "military and political consequences" if they attempted to join NATO. Both countries had attended the emergency NATO summit as members of NATO's Partnership for Peace and both had condemned the invasion and had provided assistance to Ukraine.[15] Following a meeting on 1 March 2022 to discuss whether to apply to become full members of NATO, Prime Minister Sanna Marin stated that no decision had been made on the issue yet, saying that "such an important question needs to be dealt with thoroughly".[16]

Unprecedentedly, opinion polling showed a clear majority of Finns supported joining NATO after the invasion;[17] President Niinistö characterised the polling as demonstrating sufficient popular support for an application.[18] Prime Minister Marin suggested that the decision process must be concluded in the spring and in a matter of "weeks, not months".[19][20]

Pekka Haavisto attending a meeting of NATO foreign ministers on 7 April 2022

On April 13, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs produced a report on the international security landscape and on the foreign and defence policy options available to Finland, which is expected to form the basis of the debate on NATO membership.[21] The report identifies that the Russian invasion has changed the long-term European security environment, and made it more difficult to predict and act within in the near term.[22] It does not explicitly take a position on NATO membership, but does state that the present security arrangements are insufficient and that membership would increase stability, although there is no immediate threat. As a member, Finland would not be obliged to accept foreign bases or the presence of nuclear weapons on its territory;[23] Finland's defence budget would rise by 1 to 1.5%.[24] Helsingin Sanomat assessed it as a positive evaluation of NATO membership.[23]

Political positions

Prior to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the National Coalition Party and Swedish People's Party of Finland supported NATO membership, and the other parties were neutral or opposed to varying degrees. In 2016, the party conference of the National Coalition Party agreed that Finland should apply for membership "in the next few years".[25] In the vision of the Swedish People's Party of Finland set out in the same year, Finland will be a NATO member in 2025.[26] Many individual politicians have advocated for NATO as well, including the current President Sauli Niinistö and former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb,[27] as well as former President Martti Ahtisaari,[1][28] who has argued that Finland should join all the organizations supported by other Western democracies in order "to shrug off once and for all the burden of Finlandization."[29] Two other former presidents from the Social Democratic Party, Tarja Halonen and Mauno Koivisto, have publicly opposed the idea, arguing that NATO membership would deteriorate Finland's relations with Russia.[30] The Left Alliance has been the party most opposed to joining NATO; when they entered into coalition with the SDP in 2019, they made clear that any movement towards entering a military alliance would lead to the Left Alliance leaving the cabinet. However, the party's position changed following the invasion, with chair Li Andersson calling for a thoughtful, society-wide discussion and evaluation of the possibility of applying to join NATO,[31] and later confirming that the party had decided not to resign from the government if an application is submitted.[32] After the invasion and a large change in popular opinion, the leadership of the Center Party and Finns Party also changed position to support NATO membership.[33][34]

NATO opinion

NATO has consistently maintained its "open door policy".[35] Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expected that the member states would "warmly welcome Finland as a member of NATO".[36] He has said that "Finnish membership would make NATO stronger", identifying the country's military capability and commitment to remaining a democratic society as assets.[37]

Croatia's president Zoran Milanović has stated that his country should block ratification of Finland's accession until electoral reform measures are implemented in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina, though the Foreign Minister has expressed the government's support for any application.[38]

Turkey, however, opposed Finland joining NATO as it had links to the PKK and the YPG and of the Gülen movement (which Turkey sees as threats).[39]

Foreign opinion

See also: Finland–Russia relations
A simple white fence with a red and yellow gate behind it set across a dirt path in a green forest.
The border between Finland and Russia is about 1,340 km (833 mi) long.[40]
The car traffic on the Finnish side at the Nuijamaa Border Crossing Point in Nuijamaa, Lappeenranta, South Karelia, in September 2017

Finland has received some very critical feedback from Russia for even considering the possibility of joining NATO,[41] with a 2009 study suggesting this could have repercussions for Russia's relations with the EU and NATO as a whole.[42] Following the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, Finnish Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen reiterated that Finland had no plans to join NATO, and stated that the main lesson of the war was the need for closer ties to Russia.[43] In a June 2014 interview in the Finnish newspaper Hufvudstadsbladet, Vladimir Putin's personal envoy Sergey Alexandrovich Markov accused Finland of extreme "Russophobia" and suggested that Finland joining NATO could start World War III.[44] In July 2016, Putin stated on a visit to Finland that Russia would increase the number of troops on the Finnish border if Finland were to join NATO. He also warned that NATO would "fight to the last Finn against Russia".[45][46]

After the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the radical shift in Finnish positions towards membership of NATO, Maria Zakharova and Dmitry Medvedev warned that joining NATO would have consequences for Finland, including the deployment of nuclear weapons;[47] Russian newspaper Izvestia reported that the Finnish lease on the Saimaa canal may be terminated.[48]

According to Hanna Smith [fi], Director of Research at the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, the rapidity of Finnish movement towards NATO has surprised Russia. She predicts that Russia will begin a hybrid campaign to influence the Finnish decision process, including cyber attacks, with increasing escalation if Finland moves closer to membership.[49]

Polling

Polls asking the Finnish public whether they support or oppose joining NATO have been regularly conducted. This table includes only unconditional questions; other polled topics include support for joining NATO should Sweden also join, and support for joining NATO if the Finnish government officially recommends membership, both of which generally increased public support for joining.

Template:Import-blanktable

Polls on Finnish membership of NATO
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Support Oppose Neutral
or DK 		Lead Ref.
9–10 May 2022 Kantar TNS Helsingin Sanomat 1002 73% 12% 15% 61% [50]
4–6 May 2022 Taloustutkimus Yle 1270 76% 12% 11% 64% [51]
22–27 Apr 2022 Kantar TNS Helsingin Sanomat 1062 65% 13% 22% 52% [52]
8–13 Apr 2022 Kantar TNS Helsingin Sanomat 1057 59% 17% 24% 42% [53]
6–11 Apr 2022 Corefiner MTV 1863 68% 12% 20% 56% [54]
28–30 Mar 2022 Kantar TNS Helsingin Sanomat 1080 61% 16% 23% 45% [55]
18–23 Mar 2022 Kantar TNS Helsingin Sanomat 1062 54% 21% 25% 33% [56]
11–16 Mar 2022 Kantar TNS Maaseudun Tulevaisuus 1059 61% 16% 23% 45% [57]
4–15 Mar 2022 Taloustutkimus EVA 2074 60% 19% 21% 41% [58]
9–11 Mar 2022 Taloustutkimus Yle 1378 62% 16% 19% 46% [59]
28 Feb – 3 Mar 2022 Kantar TNS Helsingin Sanomat 501 48% 27% 26% 21% [60]
23–25 Feb 2022 Taloustutkimus Yle 1382 53% 28% 19% 25% [61]
3–16 Jan 2022 Kantar TNS Helsingin Sanomat 1003 28% 42% 30% 14% [62]
15 Sep – 5 Oct 2021 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 1001 24% 51% 24% 27% [63]
16 Sep – 6 Oct 2020 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 1169 21% 53% 25% 32% [64]
14 Nov – 3 Dec 2019 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 1011 20% 64% 16% 44% [65]
20–29 Nov 2019 Kantar TNS Helsingin Sanomat 1002 20% 56% 24% 36% [66]
21 Sep – 7 Oct 2018 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 1034 20% 59% 21% 39% [67]
16–27 Oct 2017 Kantar TNS Helsingin Sanomat [?] 22% 59% 19% 37% [68]
22 Sep – 10 Oct 2017 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 1001 22% 62% 17% 40% [69]
11–23 Jan 2017 Taloustutkimus EVA 2040 25% 46% 29% 21% [70]
22 Sep – 11 Oct 2016 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 1000 25% 61% 14% 36% [71]
8–19 Jan 2016 Taloustutkimus EVA 2040 27% 46% 27% 19% [72]
5–23 Nov 2015 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 1005 27% 58% 15% 31% [73]
9–22 Jan 2015 Taloustutkimus EVA 2056 26% 43% 32% 17% [74]
26 Sep – 12 Oct 2014 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 1023 30% 60% 10% 30% [75]
14–30 Jan 2014 Taloustutkimus EVA 2052 18% 51% 30% 33% [76]
26 Sep – 13 Oct 2013 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 1038 21% 70% 10% 49% [77]
18–30 Jan 2013 Taloustutkimus EVA 2023 18% 55% 27% 37% [78]
20 Sep – 10 oct 2012 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 1017 18% 71% 10% 53% [79]
12–23 Jan 2012 Taloustutkimus EVA 1271 14% 65% 21% 51% [80]
21 Nov – 11 Dec 2011 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 965 20% 70% 10% 50% [81]
21 Jan – 23 Feb 2011 Yhdyskuntatutkimus EVA 1918 19% 50% 30% 31% [82]
24 Sep – 11 Oct 2010 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 1017 25% 68% 7% 43% [83]
25 Sep – 20 Oct 2009 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 981 28% 62% 10% 34% [84]
17 Oct – 4 Nov 2008 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 980 28% 60% 12% 32% [85]
5–22 Nov 2007 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 988 26% 69% 5% 43% [86]
14 Sep – 18 Oct 2006 TNS Gallup Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 1011 26% 65% 10% 39% [87]
7–22 Sep 2005 Taloustutkimus Advisory Board for Defence Information (Ministry of Defence) 990 28% 63% 9% 35% [88]
15 Oct – 2 Nov 1999 Taloustutkimus Verkkouutiset 1013 16% 73% 12% 57% [89]
16–28 Oct 1998 Taloustutkimus Verkkouutiset 1036 32% 48% 10% 16% [90]

Potential application

Sanna Marin and Magdalena Andersson talks about potential NATO memberships for Finland and Sweden. In the spring of 2022

On 12 May 2022, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced that Finland would begin the process of applying for NATO membership, which they say must be done "without delay". A Finnish application had been anticipated following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine degrading the European security environment, and a significant shift in Finnish public opinion on the desirability of membership.[91][92]

The applicant country (i.e., Finland) initiates the accession procedure,[93] which will be formally started by the government stating the intention to join NATO and producing a specific proposal, which must then be approved in parliament (requiring either a simple majority or a two-thirds supermajority, to be determined by the Committee on Constitutional Affairs [fi]).[94] Such a declaration of intent is expected on 15 May and a proposal will be produced shortly afterwards, which parliament will scrutinise in the following week.[91] After taking advice from the government, the President of Finland will then formally notify NATO of the willingness to begin negotiations.[95] Negotiations are expected to take weeks, after which Finland would participate in NATO activities at all levels on a provisional basis during the ratification period.[37] With negotiations concluded and a reconfirmation of the applicant's intent to join, the accession protocol will need ratification by all the existing NATO member states;[95] this is estimated to take between four months and a year.[96] After ratification is completed, the Parliament of Finland must pass an Act to formally bring the accession into force.[95]

During the interval between initiating an application and membership entering into force, Finland would be at risk.[93] Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, said that Finland could join the alliance "very quickly" and that there would be some degree of protection for Finland during that period.[36] Aftonbladet reported that, according to American defence sources, this would consist of American and British security guarantees equivalent to full membership,[97] and the Finnish News Agency claimed that non-binding promises would be received from France, Germany, the UK, and the US.[98]

Finland's foreign relations with NATO member states

See also

References

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  82. ^ Maailman paras maa: EVAn kansallinen arvo- ja asennetutkimus 2011 (PDF) (Report) (in Finnish). EVA. 15 March 2011. ISBN 978-951-628-517-0. Retrieved 10 May 2022.
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  96. ^ "Eduskunnassa alkaa tänään Nato-keskustelu, joka voi johtaa kauaskantoiseen ja historialliseen päätökseen jäsenyydestä". Helsingin Sanomat (in Finnish). 20 April 2022. Retrieved 27 April 2022.
  97. ^ "Nato expansion: No set date for Finland application - minister". BBC News. 26 April 2022. Retrieved 26 April 2022.
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Bibliography

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