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2024 United States presidential election

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For related races, see 2024 United States elections.

2024 United States presidential election
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
 
Party Democratic Republican
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The electoral map for the 2024 election, based on populations from the 2020 census
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



2024 U.S. presidential election
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Third parties
Related races
← 2020 2024 2028 →

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post-2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden has stated that he intends to run for reelection to a second term, with Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[2] Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump has suggested that he also has the intent to run for president for a nonconsecutive second term, despite his loss in 2020.[3]

In the United States, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held by the major parties to determine their nominees. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.

Background

Procedure

Main article: United States presidential election § Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

Similarly, the general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[4] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.

Effects of the 2020 census

Main article: 2020 United States redistricting cycle

The election has been the early subject of attention by analysts and commentators, as it will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College, which will follow the 2020 United States census.[5][6] This realignment of electoral college votes will remain consistent through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[7]

The House of Representatives will have redistributed the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 census, and the states will conduct a redistricting cycle in 2021 and 2022, where congressional and state legislative districts will be redrawn. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have bipartisan or nonpartisan redistricting commissions). The party that wins a presidential election often experiences a coattail effect, which helps other candidates of that party win elections.[8] In 2020, although its nominee Joe Biden won the presidential election, the Democratic Party did not flip any state legislature chambers and in fact lost both New Hampshire legislative chambers and the Montana governorship. This will allow the Republican Party to have redistricting control of seats in New Hampshire,[9][10] potentially leading to gerrymandering that will stay in effect until the 2030 census, similar to the REDMAP project after the 2010 census.[10][11][12]

Candidate eligibility

Former presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama are barred from running for a third term, per the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution. Former presidents Jimmy Carter and Donald Trump are eligible to seek a second term.[a] Former vice-presidents Dan Quayle, Al Gore, Dick Cheney and Mike Pence are eligible to seek the nomination for president. Likewise, incumbent president Joe Biden may seek re-election.

Potential campaign issues

COVID-19 pandemic

Further information: COVID-19 pandemic in the United States and U.S. federal government response to the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, which, as of May 2022, has killed over one million people in the United States (more than 1 in 330 Americans),[13] has had significant economic and societal effects which could pass on to the 2024 presidential election. The high visibility of governors in fighting the pandemic has been viewed as having given them a boost in possible 2024 contention, in contrast to the significant advantage senators have had in recent cycles.[14]

War in Ukraine

Further information: 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine

On 24 February, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, escalating the Russo-Ukrainian War and drawing international condemnation. The Biden administration led the US response which included playing a key part in pushing for stronger sanctions with NATO allies and providing billions in military and humanitarian aid since the start of the invasion. However, many Republicans blamed Biden for the invasion as they viewed the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan as showing Biden’s weakness, thereby allowing Putin to go ahead with the invasion [15]. Conversely, many Democrats have also accused Republicans of being pro-Russia such as potential candidate Donald Trump based off of comments and legislative votes [16]. The invasion is expected to last a long time so it may be a political issue in the election.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Democrat Joe Biden is the incumbent president, elected in 2020, and has stated he intends to run for re-election in 2024, with Kamala Harris as his running mate.[2] He is the oldest person to assume the office, at age 78,[17] and would be 82 at the end of his first term and 86 at the end of his second term, if re-elected. During late 2021, as President Biden was suffering from low approval ratings in the polls, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election.[18] If this occurred, Vice President Harris and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg would be considered likely candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination, having both run for president in 2020.[19][20] Biden and his allies have stated to reporters that he intends to run for re-election.[21] There is speculation that Biden will face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[22][23]

Declared intent to run

As of May 2022, individuals in this section have declared their intent to run for president.

Potential candidates

As of May 2022, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months. Most of these candidates are viewed as potential replacements if President Biden chooses not to seek re-election, while some are viewed as potential primary challenges if he does.

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Republican Party

Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden in 2020 and is currently eligible to run again in 2024. If he decides to run, he would be seeking to become the second president, after Grover Cleveland, to serve two non-consecutive terms.[77][78] Trump is considered likely to receive the Republican presidential nomination if he does run.[79] The last president to run after leaving office was Theodore Roosevelt, who came in second in the 1912 election as the presidential nominee of the Progressive Party, although Herbert Hoover did briefly seek the Republican presidential nomination at national conventions subsequent to his leaving office in 1933.

Formally exploring a candidacy

As of May 2022, individuals in this section have formally explored a candidacy for president, either by "testing the waters" or forming a political action committee.

Candidate Born Experience State Exploratory committee announced Ref
File:Coreystapleton6.jpg
Corey Stapleton 		September 17, 1967
(age 57)
Seattle, Washington 		Secretary of State of Montana
(2017–2021)
Montana State Representative from District 27
(2001–2009)
Candidate for U.S. Representative from MT-AL in 2014 and 2020
Candidate for Governor in 2012
Montana 		March 10, 2022 [80]

Publicly expressed interest

As of May 2022, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Potential candidates

As of May 2022, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.


Independents, other third parties, or party unknown

Publicly expressed interest

As of May 2022, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Potential candidates

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Primary election polling

Democratic Party

Template:Import-blanktable

Polls with Joe Biden
Nationwide polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Stacey
Abrams 		Joe
Biden 		Cory
Booker 		Pete
Buttigieg 		Kamala
Harris 		Michelle
Obama 		Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez 		Bernie
Sanders 		Other Undecided
Harvard/Harris January 19–20, 2022 – – – 32% – – 14% – – 11% – 43%
McLaughlin & Associates January 13–18, 2022 463 (LV) – 6% 25% 2% 4% 8% 17% 7% – – 13%
UMass Amherst December 14–20, 2021 491 (A) – – 40% – 9% 10% – 7% 18% 16%[d] –
YouGov/Yahoo News December 9–13, 2021 530 (RV) – – 22% – 10% 13% – 5% 11% – 24%
YouGov/Yahoo News December 9–13, 2021 640 (A) – – 20% – 10% 13% – 7% 11% – 24%
TIPP Insights December 1–4, 2021 1,013 (RV) – 4% 37% 3% 3% 16% – 4% – 2% 13%
Harvard/Harris November 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) – 5% 36% 5% 3% 16% – 5% 5% 10% –
McLaughlin & Associates November 11–16, 2021 450 (LV) – 4% 24% 2% 8% 13% 16% 5% – 12% 16%
Zogby Analytics November 8–10, 2021 426 (LV) – 6% 40% 4% – 10% 20% – – 12%[e] 8%
YouGov/Yahoo News November 4–8, 2021 684 (A) – – 25% – 7% 14% – 8% 12% 8%[f] 31%
NPR-PBS NewsHouse-Marist October 18–22, 2021 469 (RV) – – 36% – – – – – – 44% 20%
Morning Consult October 8–11, 2021 886 (RV) – – 83% – – – – – – 13% 4%
Emerson College August 30 – September 1, 2021 450 (RV) ± 4.6% – 60% – – – – – – 39% 1%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[g] – – 57% – – – – – – 22%[h] 15%[i]
Polls without Joe Biden
Nationwide polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Stacey
Abrams 		Cory
Booker 		Pete
Buttigieg 		Andrew
Cuomo 		Kamala
Harris 		Amy
Klobuchar 		Michelle
Obama 		Beto
O'Rourke 		Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez 		Bernie
Sanders 		Elizabeth
Warren 		Andrew
Yang 		Other Undecided
Harvard/Harris November 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) – 5% 5% 8% – 31% 5% – – 7% 15% 7% – 16%[j] –
Hill-HarrisX November 18–19, 2021 939 (RV) ± 3.2% 4% 3% 5% – 26% 3% 15% 2% 5% 7% 2% 1% 12%[k] 16%
Echelon Insights November 12–18, 2021 458 (LV) – 6% 6% 8% – 29% 2% – – 5% 16% 6% – 3%[l] 16%
McLaughlin & Associates November 11–16, 2021 450 (LV) – 5% 3% 8% 2% 22% 5% 23% 3% 5% – – – 29% –
YouGov/Yahoo News October 19–21, 2021 671 (A) – 7% – 9% – 22% – – – 7% 12% 8% – 4%[m] 31%
Echelon Insights October 15–19, 2021 533 (LV) – 5% 4% 9% – 23% 4% – – 5% 16% 6% – 6%[n] 20%
McLaughlin & Associates October 14–18, 2021 473 (LV) – 5% 3% 9% 2% 29% 3% 18% 3% 7% – – – 7%[o] 14%
McLaughlin & Associates September 9–14, 2021 476 (LV) – 5% 4% 7% 2% 29% 3% 17% 3% 7% – – – 5%[p] 17%
McLaughlin & Associates July 29 – August 3, 2021 467 (LV) – 4% 5% 8% 4% 28% 2% 16% 2% 7% – – 4% 6%[q] 14%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 30 – August 2, 2021 697 (A) – 4% – 6% – 44% – – – 4% 10% 6% – 18%[r] 20%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 463 (LV) – 5% 3% 4% 2% 31% 3% 19% 3% 5% – – 3% 6%[s] 16%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 459 (LV) – 4% 4% 6% 1% 35% 3% 16% 2% 7% – – 2% 9%[t] 13%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[u] – – – 9% – 41% 5% – 4% 8% – – 3% 29%[v] –
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 8–13, 2021 458 (LV) – – 4% 5% 2% 34% 4% 20% 2% 3% – – 4% 6%[w] 12%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 24–28, 2021 443 (LV) – – 4% 7% 1% 28% 3% 23% 2% 8% – – 4% 6%[x] 14%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
McLaughlin & Associates Dec 9–13, 2020 445 (LV) – – 3% 5% 5% 25% 2% 29% – 7% – – – 8%[y] 18%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 445 (LV) ± 3.1% – 2% 6% 5% 29% 2% 23% – 6% – – – 5%[z] 23%
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 2–3, 2020 461 (LV) – – 2% 8% 8% 18% – 25% – 6% – – – 6%[aa] 28%
Léger Aug 4–7, 2020 390 (LV) ± 2.8% 6% 6% 16% 21% 19% 6% – 6% 9% – – 8% 3%[ab] –

Republican Party

Nationwide polling

Polls with Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Tucker
Carlson 		Ted
Cruz 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Josh
Hawley 		Larry
Hogan 		Mike
Pence 		Mike
Pompeo 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Tim
Scott 		Donald
Trump 		Donald
Trump Jr. 		Other Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates January 13–18, 2022 468 (LV) – – – 13% 4% – 1% 9% – 3% 2% 1% 53% – – 8%
John Bolton Super PAC January 6, 2022 501 (LV) – – 5% 19% 4% – – 4% 1% – 2% – 36% – – 22%
UMass Amherst December 14–20, 2021 306 (A) – – 6% 20% 7% – – 6% 2% – – 4% 55% – – –
McLaughlin & Associates November 11–16, 2021 450 (LV) – – 2% 15% 3% – – 7% 1% 2% 1% 1% 55% – 6% 8%
Zogby Analytics November 8–10, 2021 371 (LV) – – 2% 7% 5% – – 12% 2% – 1% – 59% – 6%[ac] 4%
YouGov/Yahoo News November 4–8, 2021 559 (A) – 3% – 21% 5% – – 4% – – 3% – 44% – 1%[ad] 19%
Harvard/Harris October 26–28, 2021 490 (LV) ±4.0% – – 10% – – – 9% – – – – 47% – 15% 19%
YouGov/Yahoo News October 19–21, 2021 629 (A) – 1% – 18% 4% 1% – 5% – – 2% 2% 41% – 2%[ae] 24%
Echelon Insights (Archived version) October 15–19, 2021 476 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 66%[af] – 31% 4%
– – 22% – – – – – – – – 62%[af] – – 16%
McLaughlin & Associates October 14–18, 2021 463 (LV) – – 3% 10% 4% – – 9% 1% 4% 2% 1% 53%[af] – 9%[ag] 6%
Morning Consult October 8–11, 2021 803 (RV) – – 3% 12% 3% 0% 0% 12% 0% 3% 3% 1% 47% 6% 6%[ah] 4%
Echelon Insights[1] September 17–23, 2021 479 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 59%[af] – 32% 9%
John Bolton Super PAC September 16–18, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% – 5% 25% 6% 1% – 3% – – 2% 2% 26% – 10%[ai] 20%
Harvard/Harris September 15–16, 2021 490 (LV) ±4.0% – – 9% 3% – – 13% – – 3% – 58% – 0% 14%
McLaughlin & Associates September 9–14, 2021 456 (LV) – – 3% 8% 2% – – 10% 1% 3% 2% 1% 59%[af] – 7%[aj] 4%
Emerson College August 30 – September 1, 2021 395 (RV) ± 4.9% – 2% 10% 7% 1% – 6% – 3% – – 67% – 5%[ak] 1%
McLaughlin & Associates July 29 – August 3, 2021 467 (LV) – – 3% 11% 4% – – 8% 1% 3% 3% 0% 54%[af] – 7%[al] 6%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 30 – August 2, 2021 518 (A) – 2% – 13% 4% 0% – 3% – – 1% 1% 58% – 1%[am] 17%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates July 6–8, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.5% – 2% 19% 3% 0% 1% 8% 0% 3% 1% 1% 47%[af] - 2%[an] 13%
– – 31% – – – – – – – – 58%[af] – – 11%
John Bolton Super PAC July 8, 2021 1,000 (LV) – – 5% 13% 5% 0% – 6% – – 3% 0% 46% – 22% –
Echelon Insights[2] June 18–22, 2021 386 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 59%[af] – 35% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 444 (LV) – – 4% 9% 3% – – 8% 1% 3% 1% 1% 55%[af] – 8%[ao] 7%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 24–26, 2021 378 (A) – – – – – – – – – – – – 65% – 19%[ap] 16%
Quinnipiac May 18–24, 2021 ~290 (A)[aq] – – – – – – – – – – – – 66% – 30%[ar] 4%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 444 (LV) – 1% 3% 8% 5% – – 10% 1% 2% 0% 1% 57%[af] – 7%[as] 7%
Echelon Insights[3] May 14–17, 2021 479 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 63%[af] – 31% 6%
Morning Consult/Politico May 14–17, 2021 782 (RV) ± 2% – 4% 8% 4% 0% 0% 13% 1% 4% 1% 2% 48% 7% 9%[at] –
YouGov/Yahoo News May 11–13, 2021 348 (A) – – – – – – – – – – – – 68% – 22%[au] 10%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[av] – –[af] – – – – – – – – – – 62% – 27%[aw] 11%[ax]
Echelon Insights[4] Apr 16–23, 2021 440 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 59%[af] – 35% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 8–13, 2021 441 (LV) – 1% 3% 7% 2% – – 10% 1% 3% 1% 1% 55%[af] – 8%[ay] 9%
PEM Management Corporation Apr 3–7, 2021 494 (LV) – – 7% 9% 9% – – 6% – – 3% – 44% – 1%[az] –
Echelon Insights March 15–21, 2021 1,008 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 60%[af] – 30% 10%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill[5] Feb 20 – March 2, 2021 1,264 (LV) ± 2.7% – 3% 7% 6% 1% 1% 9% 1% 5% 2% 0% 51%[af] - 3%[ba] 12%
– – – – – – – – – – – 57%[bb] – 16%[bc] 27%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 24–28, 2021 448 (LV) – 1% 5% 4% 3% – – 8% – 3% 1% – 54%[af] – 9%[bd] 10%
Harvard-Harris Feb 23–25, 2021 546 (RV) – – 5% – 7% 2% – 18% – – – 2% 52%[af] – 13%[be] –
Echelon Insights Feb 12–18, 2021 430 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 55%[af] – 32% 14%
Morning Consult/Politico Feb 14–15, 2021 645 (RV) ± 4% – 4% – 6% 1% 1% 12% 2% 4% 2% 1% 54% 6% 10%[bf] –
Echelon Insights Jan 20–26, 2021 – (RV)[bg] – – – – – – – – – – – – 48%[af] – 40% 11%
Léger Jan 15–17, 2021 1,007 (A)[bh] ± 3.09% – 6% 2% 7% 1% 6% 13% 2% 19% 3% 3% 29%[af] 2% 6%[bi] –
Ipsos/Axios Jan 11–13, 2021 334 (A) ± 5.8% – – – – – – – – – – – 57% – 41% 1%[bj]
Morning Consult/Politico Jan 8–11, 2021 702 (RV) – – 7% – 6% 1% 0% 18% 1% 5% 2% 1% 40% 6% 15%[bk] –
McLaughlin & Associates Dec 9–13, 2020 442 (LV) – 3% 5% 1% 3% – – 11% 1% 4% 1% 1% 56% – 5%[bl] 10%
Fox News Dec 6–9, 2020 ~ 413 (RV) ± 4.5% – – – – – – – – – – – 71% – 21%[bm] 8%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 442 (LV) ± 3.1% 1% 4% 2% 4% – – 9% 1% 4% 2% 1% 53%[af] – 6%[bn] 15%
Morning Consult/Politico Nov 21–23, 2020 765 (RV) ± 2% – 4% – 4% 1% 0% 12% – 4% 2% 1% 53% 8% 11%[bo] –
HarrisX/The Hill Nov 17–19, 2020 599 (RV) ± 2.26% – – – – – – – – – – – 75% – 25% –
Seven Letter Insight Nov 10–19, 2020 ~555 (V)[bp] ± 2.5% 2% 6% – 7% 1% – 19% – – 4% 2% 35% 11% 4%[bq] –
Léger Nov 13–15, 2020 304 (A)[br] ± 3.09% 4% 7% – 4% – – 22% 2% 8% 5% – 45%[af] – 5%[bs] –
YouGov/Washington Examiner October 30, 2020 – (RV)[bt] – – – – – – – – – – – – 38% – 43%[bu] –
Polls without Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Tucker
Carlson 		Ted
Cruz 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Josh
Hawley 		Larry
Hogan 		Mike
Pence 		Mike
Pompeo 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Tim
Scott 		Donald
Trump Jr. 		Other Undecided
Echelon Insights[6] November 12–18, 2021 435 (RV) – – 10% 26% 6% 1% 0% 15% 1% 3% 1% 1% 13% 5%[bv] 20%
Harvard/Harris October 26–28, 2021 490 (LV) ±4.0% – 12% 21% – – – 23% – – – – – 0% 43%
Echelon Insights[7] October 15–19, 2021 476 (RV) – 2% 8% 22% 5% 0% 0% 8% 2% 3% 4% 2% 13% 8%[bw] 22%
McLaughlin & Associates October 14–18, 2021 463 (LV) – – 5% 24% 5% – – 14% 1% 5% 2% 2% 18% 11%[bx] 13%
Echelon Insights[8] September 17–23, 2021 479 (RV) – 2% 9% 22% 6% 1% 1% 15% 2% 4% 2% 1% 9% 11%[by] 21%
Harvard/Harris September 15–16, 2021 490 (LV) ±4.0% – 14% 20% – – – 32% – – – – – 0% 38%
McLaughlin & Associates September 9–14, 2021 456 (LV) – – 7% 22% 4% – – 15% 2% 4% 2% 2% 19% 12%[bz] 11%
Emerson College August 30 – September 1, 2021 395 (RV) ± 4.9% – 13% 32% 10% 6% – 24% – 6% – – – 9%[ca] 0%
McLaughlin & Associates July 29 – August 3, 2021 467 (LV) – – 9% 23% 4% – – 11% 2% 4% 4% 1% 12% 16%[cb] 14%
Echelon Insights[9] July 19–23, 2021 421 (RV) – 1% 9% 32% 4% 1% 0%[cc] 17% 1% 3% 2% 1% 10% 6%[cd] 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates July 6–8, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.5% – 7% 39% 4% 0% 1% 15% 1% 3% – 2% – 4%[ce] 24%
Echelon Insights[10] June 18–22, 2021 386 (RV) – 1% 6% 21% 6% 0%[cf] 0%[cg] 14% 0%[ch] 4% 3% 2% 7% 7%[ci] 26%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 444 (LV) – – 6% 24% 4% – – 19% 1% 5% 2% 1% 15% 13%[cj] 11%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 444 (LV) – 1% 12% 18% 5% – – 19% 2% 3% 1% 2% 13% 13%[ck] 12%
Echelon Insights[11] May 14–17, 2021 479 (RV) – 2% 9% 22% 5% 1% 0%[cl] 14% 1% 4% 1% 3% 6% 9%[cm] 19%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[cn] – – 15% 35% 6% 1% – 10% – 10% – – – 21%[co] –
Echelon Insights[12] Apr 16–23, 2021 440 (RV) – 2% 8% 20% 6% 1% 0%[cp] 16% 1% 4% 2% 0%[cq] 9% 3%[cr] 28%
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 8–13, 2021 441 (LV) – 3% 10% 14% 3% – – 19% 2% 3% 3% 1% 15% 13%[cs] 14%
Echelon Insights March 15–21, 2021 1,008 (RV) – 4% 5% 17% 4% – – 16% 4% 3% 2% – 3% 7%[ct] 35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill[13] Feb 20 – March 2, 2021 1,264 (LV) ± 2.7% – 13% 17% 8% 2% 1% 19% 4% 5% 4% 1% – 7%[cu] 20%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 24–28, 2021 448 (LV) – 1% 9% 9% 5% – – 15% – 6% 2% – 21% 16%[cv] 17%
RMG Research/Just the News Feb 25–27, 2021 363 (RV) – 8% 18% 21% 10% 2% – – 9% – – – – 33%[cw] –
Harvard-Harris Feb 23–25, 2021 546 (RV) – – 16% – 10% 6% – 41% – – – 7% – 19%[cx] –
Echelon Insights Feb 12–18, 2021 430 (RV) – 1% 10% 8% 6% ≤1% 1% 21% 1% 4% ≤1% ≤1% 8% 12%[cy] 26%
Echelon Insights Jan 20–26, 2021 – (RV)[cz] – 2% 8% 2% 9% 0% 0% 21% 1% 3% 2% 1% 10% 10%[da] 30%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Léger Jan 15–17, 2021 1,007 (A)[db] ± 3.09% – 9% 3% 8% 2% 7% 22% 3% 20% 4% 3% 11% 8%[dc] –
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 442 (LV) ± 3.1% 1% 7% 2% 6% – – 20% 1% 5% 3% 2% 20% 13%[dd] 22%
Léger Nov 13–15, 2020 304 (A)[de] ± 3.1% 6% 14% – 6% – – 44% 3% 11% 6% – – 7%[df] –
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 2–3, 2020 449 (LV) – 2% 5% 2% 8% – – 30% – 5% 2% 1% 20% 5%[dg] 21%
Echelon Insights Aug 14–18, 2020 423 (LV) – 2% 4% – 7% 0% 1% 26% – – 5% 1% 12% 11%[dh] 29%
Léger Aug 4–7, 2020 309 (LV) ± 2.8% 7% 8% – 11% – – 31% 3% 9% 5% – 17% 9%[di] –

Statewide polling

Statewide polling
Maine primary
Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Ted
Cruz 		Nikki
Haley 		Mike
Pence 		Marco
Rubio 		Ivanka
Trump 		Donald
Trump Jr. 		Other Undecided
January 3, 2023 Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
SurveyUSA / FairVote Jun 30 – July 6, 2020 604 (LV) ± 4.1% 12% 12% 30% 6% 7% 11% – 21%
South Carolina primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
Trafalgar (R) Mar 25–29, 2021 1,014 (LV) ± 2.99% 64% 11%[dj] 25%[dk]
Texas primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Greg
Abbott 		Ron
DeSantis 		Other Undecided
CWS Research Feb 5–7, 2022 715 (LV) – 13% 46% 18% 23%
Utah primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Liz
Cheney 		Chris
Christie 		Ted
Cruz 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Mike
Pence 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights Nov 5–15, 2021 333 (RV) ± 5.4% 1% 1% 3% 7% 4% 9% 20% 1% 43% 1% 10%
2% 1% 8% 18% 5% 13% 21% 1% – 1% 20%

General election polling

Hypothetical polling
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/Undecided
[dl] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics April 19 – May 25, 2022 May 26, 2022 44.0% 45.2% 10.8% Trump +1.2
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Emerson College May 24–25, 2022 1,148 (RV) ± 2.8% 42% 44% 14%
Echelon Insights May 20–23, 2022 1,020 (LV) – 45% 44% 11%
Harvard/Harris May 18–19, 2022 1,963 (RV) – 42% 45% 13%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies May 17, 2022 1,120 (LV) – 39% 42% 19%
Rasmussen Reports April 28 – May 2, 2022 1,004 (LV) ± 3.0% 36% 50% 14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies May 1, 2022 1,096 (LV) – 40% 44% 16%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. April 19–27, 2022 800 (LV) – 48% 46% 5%
Emerson College April 25–26, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 43% 15%
McLaughlin & Associates April 22–26, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 43% 50% 7%
Morning Consult April 22–25, 2022 2,004 (RV) ± 2.0% 45% 44% 11%
InsiderAdvantage (R) April 21–23, 2022 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 43% 47% 10%
YouGov/Yahoo News April 19–22, 2022 1,187 (RV) – 43% 41% 16%
Harvard/Harris April 20–21, 2022 1,966 (RV) – 43% 45% 12%
Echelon Insights April 18–20, 2022 1,001 (LV) – 45% 44% 11%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies April 18, 2022 1,500 (LV) – 41% 43% 16%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 31 – April 4, 2022 1,233 (RV) – 45% 40% 15%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies April 3, 2022 1,205 (LV) – 38% 43% 19%
Marquette Law School Mar 14–24, 2022 1,004 (A) ± 4.0% 41% 37% 22%
Harvard/Harris Mar 23–24, 2022 1,990 (RV) – 41% 47% 12%
McLaughlin & Associates Mar 17–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 46% 49% 5%
Echelon Insights Mar 18–21, 2022 1,050 (RV) – 46% 44% 10%
University of Massachusetts Lowell Mar 15–21, 2022 873 (RV) ± 3.7% 44% 42% 14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies March 20, 2022 1,193 (LV) – 41% 41% 18%
Emerson College Mar 18–20, 2022 1,023 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 45% 13%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 10–14, 2022 1,225 (RV) – 47% 39% 14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies March 8, 2022 1,194 (LV) – 40% 42% 18%
Wall Street Journal Mar 2–7, 2022 1,500 (RV) – 45% 45% 9%
Schoen Cooperman Research Mar 2–6, 2022 800 (LV) – 44% 44% 12%
YouGov/Yahoo News Feb 24–27, 2022 1,532 (A) ± 2.9% 40% 39% 21%
NewsNation Feb 23–24, 2022 1,046 (RV) – 37% 41% 22%
Harvard/Harris Feb 23–24, 2022 2,026 (RV) – 42% 48% 10%
Echelon Insights Feb 19–23, 2022 1,078 (RV) – 45% 43% 12%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies February 23, 2022 1,367 (LV) – 42% 38% 20%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 16–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 45% 48% 7%
Emerson College Feb 19–20, 2022 1,138 (RV) ± 2.8% 44% 48% 8%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. February 3–9, 2022 800 (LV) – 46% 43% 11%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies February 6, 2022 1,406 (LV) – 41% 41% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News Jan 20–24, 2022 1,568 (A) ± 2.8% 42% 40% 18%
Morning Consult January 22–23, 2022 2,005 (RV) ± 2.0% 45% 44% 11%
Echelon Insights Jan 21–23, 2022 1,098 (RV) – 47% 43% 10%
Marquette Law School Jan 10–21, 2022 1,000 (A) – 43% 33% 24%
Harvard/Harris Jan 19–20, 2022 1,815 (RV) – 40% 46% 14%
McLaughlin & Associates Jan 13–18, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 44% 49% 7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies January 8–9, 2022 1,430 (LV) – 39% 38% 23%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac January 6, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 44% 11%
Rasmussen Reports January 5, 2022 1,015 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 46% 14%
InsiderAdvantage (R) Dec 17–19, 2021 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 41% 49% 10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies December 18, 2021 1,411 (LV) – 34% 39% 27%
YouGov/Yahoo News Dec 9–13, 2021 1,558 (A) – 47% 41% 12%
Echelon Insights Dec 9–13, 2021 1,098 (RV) – 47% 44% 9%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies December 5, 2021 1,387 (LV) – 38% 42% 20%
Harvard/Harris Nov 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) – 45% 48% 7%
Rasmussen Reports Nov 22–23, 2021 1,200 (LV) ± 3.0% 32% 45% 23%
Wall Street Journal Nov 16–22, 2021 1,500 (RV) – 46% 45% 10%
Echelon Insights[permanent dead link‍] Nov 12–18, 2021 1,013 (RV) – 45% 45% 10%
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 11–16, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 44% 49% 7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies November 15, 2021 1,500 (RV) – 35% 41% 24%
Marquette Law School Nov 1–10, 2021 1,004 (A) – 42% 34% 24%
YouGov/Yahoo News Nov 4–8, 2021 1,673 (A) – 43% 39% 18%
Suffolk University Nov 3–5, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 44% 16%
Emerson College Nov 3–4, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 45% 12%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies October 31, 2021 1,387 (LV) – 42% 42% 16%
Harvard/Harris Oct 26–28, 2021 1,578 (LV) – 45% 46% 9%
YouGov/Yahoo News Oct 19–21, 2021 1,704 (A) – 43% 40% 17%
Echelon Insights Oct 15–19, 2021 1,098 (RV) – 48% 42% 10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies October 17, 2021 1,366 (LV) – 42% 40% 18%
Selzer and Company/Grinnell College Oct 13–17, 2021 745 (LV) ± 3.6% 40% 40% 19%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Oct 4–6, 2021 1,345 (LV) – 43% 41% 16%
Echelon Insights Sep 17–23, 2021 1,005 (RV) – 50% 39% 11%
Rasmussen Reports Sep 21–22, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 41% 51% 8%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Sep 19–20, 2021 1,330 (LV) – 42% 40% 18%
McLaughlin & Associates Sep 9–14, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 47% 50% 3%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Sep 4–5, 2021 1,357 (LV) – 45% 42% 13%
Emerson College Aug 30 – September 1, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% 7%
Rasmussen Reports Aug 16–17, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 37% 43% 20%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 30 – August 2, 2021 1,552 (A) – 47% 37% 16%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac July 8, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 46% 43% 11%
YouGov/Yahoo News June 22–24, 2021 1,592 (A) – 47% 35% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 24–26, 2021 1,588 (A) – 46% 36% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 11–13, 2021 1,561 (A) – 48% 36% 16%
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,106 (A) – 45% 28% 27%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac Apr 3–7, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 46% 42% 12%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Andrew
Yang
Forward 		Other/
Undecided
Echelon Insights Oct 15–19, 2021 1,098 (RV) – 44% 40% 5% 11%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Rasmussen Reports April 28 – May 2, 2022 1,004 (LV) ± 3.0% 35% 46% 19%
Marquette Law School Mar 14–24, 2022 1,004 (A) ± 4.0% 38% 33% 29%
Morning Consult January 22–23, 2022 2,005 (RV) ± 2.0% 44% 39% 17%
Marquette Law School Jan 10–21, 2022 1,000 (A) – 41% 33% 26%
Harvard/Harris Nov 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) – 43% 36% 21%
Emerson College Aug 30 – September 1, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.7% 48% 36% 16%
Echelon Insights April 16–23, 2021 1,043 (RV) – 45% 28% 27%
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,105 (A) – 41% 25% 34%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,107 (A) – 44% 19% 37%
Joe Biden vs. Ted Cruz
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ted
Cruz
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Morning Consult January 22–23, 2022 2,005 (RV) ± 2.0% 45% 39% 16%
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,105 (A) – 46% 24% 30%
Joe Biden vs. Mitt Romney
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Mitt
Romney
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Echelon Insights Mar 18–21, 2022 1,050 (RV) – 41% 35% 24%
Emerson College Aug 30 – September 1, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.7% 42% 23% 35%
Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Mike
Pence
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Marquette Law School Mar 14–24, 2022 1,004 (A) ± 4.0% 37% 33% 29%
Morning Consult January 22–23, 2022 2,005 (RV) ± 2.0% 44% 42% 14%
Joe Biden vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Generic
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Morning Consult April 22–25, 2022 2,004 (RV) ± 2.0% 39% 46% 15%
Morning Consult January 22–23, 2022 2,005 (RV) ± 2.0% 37% 46% 17%
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Harvard/Harris May 18–19, 2022 1,963 (RV) – 40% 47% 14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies May 17, 2022 1,120 (LV) – 37% 44% 19%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies May 1, 2022 1,096 (LV) – 39% 43% 18%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. April 19–27, 2022 800 (LV) – 49% 46% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates April 22–26, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 41% 51% 8%
Harvard/Harris April 20–21, 2022 1,966 (RV) – 41% 47% 12%
Echelon Insights April 18–20, 2022 1,001 (LV) – 43% 47% 10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies April 18, 2022 1,500 (LV) – 39% 45% 16%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies April 3, 2022 1,205 (LV) – 35% 44% 21%
Harvard/Harris Mar 23–24, 2022 1,990 (RV) – 38% 49% 13%
McLaughlin & Associates Mar 17–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 42% 50% 8%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies March 20, 2022 1,193 (LV) – 39% 42% 19%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies March 8, 2022 1,194 (LV) – 37% 42% 21%
Schoen Cooperman Research Mar 2–6, 2022 800 (LV) – 43% 47% 10%
Harvard/Harris Feb 23–24, 2022 2,026 (RV) – 39% 51% 10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies February 23, 2022 1,367 (LV) – 41% 37% 22%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 16–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 43% 50% 7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. February 3–9, 2022 800 (LV) – 46% 45% 9%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies February 6, 2022 1,406 (RV) – 40% 43% 17%
Harvard/Harris Jan 19–20, 2022 1,815 (RV) – 39% 49% 12%
McLaughlin & Associates Jan 13–18, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 40% 51% 9%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies January 8–9, 2022 1,430 (LV) – 41% 41% 18%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies December 5, 2021 1,387 (LV) – 38% 42% 20%
Harvard/Harris Nov 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) – 41% 50% 9%
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 11–16, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 42% 50% 8%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies November 15, 2021 1,500 (RV) – 33% 42% 25%
McLaughlin & Associates Oct 14–18, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 46% 49% 4%
Rasmussen Reports Sep 21–22, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 39% 52% 9%
McLaughlin & Associates Sep 9–14, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 47% 49% 4%
McLaughlin & Associates July 29 – August 3, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 46% 49% 5%
Echelon Insights June 18–22, 2021 1,001 (RV) – 47% 40% 13%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 45% 49% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 45% 49% 6%
Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pence
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Mike
Pence
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Echelon Insights June 18–22, 2021 1,001 (RV) – 45% 36% 19%
Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Harvard/Harris May 18–19, 2022 1,963 (RV) – 41% 38% 20%
Harvard/Harris April 20–21, 2022 1,966 (RV) – 42% 38% 20%
Harvard/Harris Mar 23–24, 2022 1,990 (RV) – 40% 38% 22%
Harvard/Harris Feb 23–24, 2022 2,026 (RV) – 41% 39% 20%
Harvard/Harris Jan 19–20, 2022 1,815 (RV) – 39% 40% 21%
Harvard/Harris Nov 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) – 42% 37% 21%
Harvard/Harris Oct 26–28, 2021 1,578 (RV) – 40% 42% 18%
Echelon Insights Apr 16–23, 2021 1,043 (RV) – 43% 31% 26%
Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pompeo
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Mike
Pompeo
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Harvard/Harris Oct 26–28, 2021 1,578 (RV) – 41% 41% 18%
Kamala Harris vs. Tim Scott
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Tim
Scott
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Harvard/Harris Oct 26–28, 2021 1,578 (RV) – 39% 42% 19%
Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Pete
Buttigieg
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates April 22–26, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 39% 49% 12%
Harvard/Harris Nov 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) – 37% 48% 15%
Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Hillary
Clinton
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates Mar 17–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 41% 51% 8%
Schoen Cooperman Research Mar 2–6, 2022 800 (LV) – 43% 46% 11%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 16–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 43% 50% 7%
Echelon Insights Jan 21–23, 2022 1,098 (RV) – 43% 44% 13%
McLaughlin & Associates Jan 13–18, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 41% 51% 8%
Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Bernie
Sanders
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Morning Consult April 22–25, 2022 2,004 (RV) ± 2.0% 42% 43% 15%
Phil Murphy vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Phil
Murphy
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates April 22–26, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 33% 49% 18%
Mark Cuban vs. Elon Musk
Poll source Date Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Cuban 		Elon
Musk 		Other/
Undecided
Emerson College May 24–25, 2022 1,148 (RV) ± 2.8% 20% 29% 50%

Timeline

Further information: Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election

See also

Notes

  1. ^ If either is elected he would be the second president, after Grover Cleveland, to win a second non-consecutive term.
  2. ^ If he decides to run, he would be seeking to become the second president, after Grover Cleveland, to serve two non-consecutive terms.[90][78]
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Elizabeth Warren with 10%; Hillary Clinton with 6%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 8%; Gavin Newsom with 4%
  6. ^ Elizabeth Warren with 8%
  7. ^ Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
  8. ^ "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Biden" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Biden" with 22%; Would not vote with 6%
  9. ^ "Consider voting for Biden" with 8%; Undecided with 7%
  10. ^ Gretchen Whitmer with 2%; Other/Don't know with 14%
  11. ^ Gavin Newsom with 4%; "Someone else" with 3%; Michael Bloomberg with 2%; Sherrod Brown, Gretchen Whitmer, and Katie Porter with 1%
  12. ^ Gavin Newsom with 2%; Joe Manchin with 1%; "Someone else", Andy Beshear, Tulsi Gabbard, Kyrsten Sinema and Gretchen Whitmer with 0%
  13. ^ Sherrod Brown with 4%
  14. ^ Gavin Newsom with 3%; "Someone else", Tulsi Gabbard and Joe Manchin with 1%; Andy Beshear, Kyrsten Sinema and Gretchen Whitmer with 0%
  15. ^ Joe Manchin and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Deval Patrick and Tom Steyer with 1%; Ilhan Omar with 0%
  16. ^ Gavin Newsom with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Deval Patrick and Tom Steyer with 1%; John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine and Ilhan Omar with 0%
  17. ^ John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand and Tim Kaine with 1%; Ilhan Omar with 0%
  18. ^ Sherrod Brown with 2%
  19. ^ John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom, Deval Patrick and Ilhan Omar with 1%
  20. ^ Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom and Deval Patrick with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Ilhan Omar with 1%
  21. ^ Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
  22. ^ "Someone else" with 26%; Julian Castro with 2%; John Bel Edwards with 1%
  23. ^ Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%
  24. ^ John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Gavin Newsom with 0%
  25. ^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Tim Kaine with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
  26. ^ Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%
  27. ^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 1%
  28. ^ Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; Greg Abbott with 2%
  30. ^ Glenn Youngkin with 1%
  31. ^ Tom Cotton And Kristi Noem with 1%
  32. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x Standard VI response
  33. ^ Candace Owens with 3%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  34. ^ Liz Cheney with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  35. ^ Chris Christie with 7%; Kristi Noem with 3%
  36. ^ Liz Cheney and John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Candace Owens and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
  37. ^ "Someone else" with 5%; Tom Cotton with 0%
  38. ^ John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Candace Owens with 2%; Liz Cheney with 1%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 0%
  39. ^ Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
  40. ^ Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
  41. ^ Candace Owens with 4%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
  42. ^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 19%
  43. ^ 22% of a full sample of 1,316 adults
  44. ^ "Do not want Trump to run" as opposed to "want Trump to run" with 30%
  45. ^ Candace Owens with 3%; John Kasich, Liz Cheney, Rick Scott, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
  46. ^ Would not vote with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  47. ^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 22%
  48. ^ Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
  49. ^ "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Trump" with 24%; Would not vote with 3%
  50. ^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 8%; Undecided with 4%
  51. ^ John Kasich with 3%; Candace Owens with 2%; Tom Cotton, Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
  52. ^ Kristi Noem with 1%
  53. ^ Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
  54. ^ On whether voters thought they'd support a Trump primary campaign if he ran
  55. ^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 16%
  56. ^ Candace Owens with 3%; Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 2%; Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  57. ^ "Someone else" with 12%; Tom Cotton with 1%
  58. ^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  59. ^ GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
  60. ^ Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[147]
  61. ^ Ben Sasse with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%; Ivanka Trump with 1%
  62. ^ Listed as "Skipped"
  63. ^ Would not vote with 6%; "Someone else" with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
  64. ^ John Kasich and Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  65. ^ "Would not like to see Trump run for president in 2024" with 21%
  66. ^ John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  67. ^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker with 0%
  68. ^ 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
  69. ^ Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with 1%
  70. ^ Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
  71. ^ John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%
  72. ^ Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters
  73. ^ Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%
  74. ^ Liz Cheney, Greg Abbott, Chris Christie, Glenn Youngkin, Rick Scott, and "Someone else" with 1%; Larry Hogan, Tom Cotton, Ben Sasse, and Kristi Noem with 0%.
  75. ^ Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 2%; "Someone else", Greg Abbott, Chris Christie and Tom Cotton with 1%; Josh Hawley, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%
  76. ^ Candace Owens with 5%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%
  77. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Kristi Noem with 1%; Greg Abbott, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott and Marjorie Taylor Greene with 0%
  78. ^ Candace Owens with 5%; Liz Cheney and John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  79. ^ "Someone else" with 8%; Tom Cotton with 1%
  80. ^ Candace Owens with 6%; Ivanka Trump with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  81. ^ No voters
  82. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%
  83. ^ Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%; Chris Christie with 0%
  84. ^ No voters
  85. ^ No voters
  86. ^ No voters
  87. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ben Sasse with 0%
  88. ^ Ivanka Trump with 4%; Candace Owens with 3%; Liz Cheney with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  89. ^ Candace Owens with 5%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; John Kasich with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  90. ^ No voters
  91. ^ Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%; Dave Portnoy with no voters
  92. ^ Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
  93. ^ "Someone else" with 19%; Kristi Noem and Ben Sasse with 1%
  94. ^ No voters
  95. ^ No voters
  96. ^ Kristi Noem and "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy and Rick Scott with 0%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with no voters
  97. ^ Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich with 2%; Rick Scott and Kristi Noem with 1%
  98. ^ Greg Abbott with 2%; "Someone else," Tom Cotton, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, and Dave Portnoy with 1% or less
  99. ^ Kristi Noem with 4%; Chris Christie, Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
  100. ^ Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem, and Tim Scott with 2%; Rick Scott with 1%
  101. ^ "Other" with 21%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 4%; Greg Abbott and Devin Nunes with 2%
  102. ^ "Someone else" with 16%; Tom Cotton with 3%
  103. ^ Dan Crenshaw, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Rand Paul with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy, and Elise Stefanik with 1% or less
  104. ^ GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
  105. ^ Rand Paul with 3%; John Kasich and "Someone else" with 2%; Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton with 1%; Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
  106. ^ Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[147]
  107. ^ Ben Sasse and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%
  108. ^ Ivanka Trump with 4%; John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem with 2%; Rick Scott with 0%
  109. ^ Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
  110. ^ Rick Santorum with 3%; John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%
  111. ^ John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  112. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw, Lindsey Graham and John Kasich with 2%; Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
  113. ^ Paul Ryan with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Kevin McCarthy with 2%
  114. ^ "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 9%; would not vote with 2%
  115. ^ "Would consider voting for Trump" with 20%; Undecided with 6%
  116. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

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