1998 Australian federal election

1998 Australian federal election
All 148 seats in the House of Representatives; 75 seats were needed for a majority in the House; 40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate
	Popular vote by state and territory with graphs indicating the number of seats won. Seat totals are not determined by popular vote by state or territory but via results in each electorate.
Prime Minister before election; John Howard; Liberal/National coalition	Subsequent Prime Minister ; John Howard; Liberal/National coalition

The 1998 Australian federal election was held to determine the members of the 39th Parliament of Australia. It was held on 3 October 1998. All 148 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 seats of the 76-seat Senate were up for election. The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition government led by Prime Minister John Howard of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Tim Fischer of the National Party defeated the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition led by Opposition Leader Kim Beazley despite losing the two party preferred popular vote.

Entering parliament at this election were future Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, future Liberal deputy leader and future Minister of Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop, and future Speaker Anna Burke.

Background

The election returned the Member of the House of Representatives for its 1998–2001 term and half of Australia's senators, who then served in the 1999–2002 Senate.

Despite winning almost 51 percent of the two-party-preferred vote and regaining much of what it had lost in its severe defeat of two years earlier, Labor fell short of forming government. The government was re-elected with 49.02% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 50.98% for the Australian Labor Party, the largest difference of six election results where the winner did not gain a two-party preferred majority, since 2PP results first estimated from 1937.

The election on 3 October 1998 was held six months earlier than required by the Constitution. Prime Minister John Howard made the announcement following the launch of the coalition's Goods and Services Tax (GST) policy launch and a five-week advertising campaign. The ensuing election was almost entirely dominated by the proposed 10% GST and proposed income tax cuts.

In reaction to One Nation's policies, the other significant parties all agreed to preference against One Nation. One Nation lost its lone house seat when founder and leader Pauline Hanson lost on preferences to Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson in the Queensland electorate of Blair. In Queensland, One Nation polled 14.83% of the Senate vote, sufficient to elect one senator without the need for preferences.^[1] The seat initially went to Heather Hill, but she was subsequently disqualified under Section 44 of the Constitution, and replaced by Len Harris.

The election-eve Newspoll reported Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote.^[2]

On election night of 3 October, the exit poll showed Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote. Labor made the single biggest gain by an Opposition party following an election defeat; the Coalition's majority was cut from 40 to 12. It was only when the first returns trickled in from Western Australia that the Coalition was assured of another term. The swing across all states would have normally been sufficient for a change of government, but the uneven nature of the swing left Kim Beazley eight seats short of becoming Prime Minister. The uneven nature of the swing saw Labor getting huge swings in seats that they held prior to the election but not enough in seats needed to gain government.^[3]

Results

House of Representatives results

House of Reps (IRV) – 1998–2001 – Turnout 94.99% (CV) — Informal 3.78%^[4]
	Liberal/National Coalition		4,388,809	39.51	-7.74	80	14
Party			Votes	%	Swing	Seats	Change
	Labor		4,454,306	40.10	+1.34	67	18
		Liberal	3,764,707	33.89	−4.80	64	11
		National	588,088	5.29	−2.91	16	3
		Country Liberal	36,014	0.32	−0.03	0	1
	One Nation		936,621	8.43	*
	Democrats		569,875	5.13	−1.63
	Greens ^[a]		290,709	2.62	−0.30
	Independents ^[b]		195,180	1.76	−0.51	1	4
	Others		273,503	2.46
Total			11,109,063			148
Two-party-preferred vote
	Liberal/National coalition		5,413,431	49.02	−4.61	80	14
	Labor		5,630,409	50.98	+4.61	67	18

Invalid/blank votes			436,138	3.78
Turnout			11,545,201	95.0
Registered voters			12,154,050
Source: Federal Elections 1998

Popular vote

Labor			40.10%
Liberal			33.89%
One Nation			8.43%
National			5.29%
Democrats			5.13%
Greens			2.14%
CLP			0.32%
Independents			1.76%
Other			2.94%

Two-party-preferred vote

Labor			50.98%
Coalition			49.02%

Parliament seats

Coalition			54.05%
Labor			45.27%
Independents			0.68%

Senate results

Senate (STV GV) — 1999–2002—Turnout 95.34% (CV) — Informal 3.24%

Party			Votes	%	Swing	Seats won	Seats	Change
	Labor		4,182,963	37.31	+1.16	17	29
		Liberal/National (Joint Ticket)	2,452,407	21.87	−2.62	5
		Liberal	1,528,730	13.63	−2.61	11	31
		National	208,536	1.86	−1.01	0	3	2
		Country Liberal	36,063	0.32	−0.05	1	1
	Liberal–National coalition		4,225,673	37.70	−6.27	17	35	2
	One Nation		1,007,439	8.99	*	1	1	1
	Democrats		947,940	8.45	−2.37	4	9	2
	Greens		305,058	2.72	−0.45	0	1	1
	Harradine Group		24,254	0.22	−0.08	1	1
	Others		507,221	4.5
Total			11,211,903			40	76

Invalid/blank votes			375,181	3.2
Turnout			11,584,909	95.3
Registered voters			12,154,050
Source: AEC Election 2001

House of Representatives preference flows

The Nationals had candidates in 13 seats where three-cornered-contests existed, with 88.89% of preferences favouring the Liberal Party.
One Nation contested 135 electorates with preferences slightly favouring the Liberal/National Coalition (53.66%)
The Democrats contested 144 electorates with preferences slightly favouring Labor (56.72%)
The Greens contested 120 electorates with preferences strongly favouring Labor (73.28%)

Seats changing hands

Seat	Pre-1998				Swing	Post-1998
Seat	Party		Member	Margin	Swing	Margin	Member	Party
Bass, Tas		Liberal	Warwick Smith	4.57	4.63	0.06	Michelle O'Byrne	Labor
Bendigo, Vic		Liberal	Bruce Reid	0.88	4.35	3.47	Steve Gibbons	Labor
Bowman, Qld		Liberal	Andrea West	0.89	4.18	3.29	Con Sciacca	Labor
Braddon, Tas		Liberal	Chris Miles	5.69	10.02	4.33	Sid Sidebottom	Labor
Canning, WA		Liberal	Ricky Johnston	1.64	5.16	3.52	Jane Gerick	Labor
Capricornia, Qld		National	Paul Marek	3.46	8.75	5.29	Kirsten Livermore	Labor
Chisholm, Vic		Liberal	Michael Wooldridge	2.60	4.67	2.07	Anna Burke	Labor
Cowan, WA		Liberal	Richard Evans	4.06	7.62	3.56	Graham Edwards	Labor
Curtin, WA		Independent	Allan Rocher	7.28	N/A ^[c]	13.28	Julie Bishop	Liberal
Dickson, Qld		Liberal	Tony Smith ^[d]	3.90	4.02	0.12	Cheryl Kernot	Labor
Griffith, Qld		Liberal	Graeme McDougall	1.50	3.93	2.43	Kevin Rudd	Labor
Hume, NSW		National	John Sharp	4.35	3.71	8.06	Alby Schultz	Liberal
Kingston, SA		Liberal	Susan Jeanes	2.01	2.48	0.47	David Cox	Labor
Kalgoorlie, WA		Independent	Graeme Campbell	10.35	N/A ^[c]	2.10	Barry Haase	Liberal
Lilley, Qld		Liberal	Elizabeth Grace	0.80	3.93	3.13	Wayne Swan	Labor
Lowe, NSW		Liberal	Paul Zammit ^[e]	2.46	7.09	4.63	John Murphy	Labor
McMillan, Vic		Liberal	Russell Broadbent	2.07	2.64	0.57	Christian Zahra	Labor
Moore, WA		Independent	Paul Filing	13.28	N/A ^[c]	4.13	Mal Washer	Liberal
Northern Territory, NT		Country Liberal	Nick Dondas	0.37	0.94	0.57	Warren Snowdon	Labor
Oxley, Qld		Independent/One Nation	Pauline Hanson ^[f]	0.35	7.85	8.20	Bernie Ripoll	Labor
Paterson, NSW		Liberal	Bob Baldwin	0.43	1.65	1.22	Bob Horne	Labor
Stirling, WA		Liberal	Eoin Cameron	3.22	4.26	1.04	Jann McFarlane	Labor
Swan, WA		Liberal	Don Randall	3.63	6.33	2.70	Kim Wilkie	Labor

Notes

^ Australian Greens includes Greens Western Australia.
^ Pauline Hanson has been counted as an independent for the 1996 election. She had been disendorsed as the Liberal candidate and ran as an independent, but she remained a Liberal on the ballot paper.
^ ^a ^b ^c Allan Rocher, Graeme Campbell and Paul Filing were not in the final two candidates for their seats; the second figures are against Labor.
^ Tony Smith contested his seat as an independent. The figures shown are against Labor.
^ Paul Zammit contested his seat as an independent. The figures shown are against Liberal.
^ At the 1996 election Pauline Hanson had been disendorsed as the Liberal candidate and ran as an independent, but she remained a Liberal on the ballot paper. She created the One Nation Party and contested the seat of Blair in this election after a redistribution, losing to Liberal Cameron Thompson. The figures shown are a two-party-preferred basis between Labor and Liberal.

References

^ Newman, G; Kopras, A (4 November 1996). "Federal Elections 1996" (PDF). Background Paper 6 1996-97. Parliamentary Research Service. ISSN 1037-2938. Retrieved 10 January 2022.
^ "Newspoll archive since 1987". Polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 30 July 2016.
^ Antony Green (4 February 2016). "How Many Seats Did John Howard Lose at the 1998 GST Election?". ABC News. Retrieved 4 October 2021.
^ "1998 House of Representatives". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 10 June 2022.

Election 98, campaign and results coverage by the ABC
Australian Electoral Commission Results
University of WA Archived 18 January 2015 at the Wayback Machine election results in Australia since 1890
AEC 2PP vote
AustralianPolitics.com election details
Preference flows – ABC

[Greens_WA-5] Australian Greens includes Greens Western Australia.

[Hanson-6] Pauline Hanson has been counted as an independent for the 1996 election. She had been disendorsed as the Liberal candidate and ran as an independent, but she remained a Liberal on the ballot paper.

[Splitter-7] Allan Rocher, Graeme Campbell and Paul Filing were not in the final two candidates for their seats; the second figures are against Labor.

[8] Tony Smith contested his seat as an independent. The figures shown are against Labor.

[9] Paul Zammit contested his seat as an independent. The figures shown are against Liberal.

[10] At the 1996 election Pauline Hanson had been disendorsed as the Liberal candidate and ran as an independent, but she remained a Liberal on the ballot paper. She created the One Nation Party and contested the seat of Blair in this election after a redistribution, losing to Liberal Cameron Thompson. The figures shown are a two-party-preferred basis between Labor and Liberal.

[1996_APH-1] Newman, G; Kopras, A (4 November 1996). "Federal Elections 1996" (PDF). Background Paper 6 1996-97. Parliamentary Research Service. ISSN 1037-2938. Retrieved 10 January 2022.

[2] "Newspoll archive since 1987". Polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 30 July 2016.

[3] Antony Green (4 February 2016). "How Many Seats Did John Howard Lose at the 1998 GST Election?". ABC News. Retrieved 4 October 2021.

[1998_Psephos-4] "1998 House of Representatives". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 10 June 2022.

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