2022 United States Senate election in Georgia
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| Elections in Georgia |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the state of Georgia. As no candidate achieved a majority of the vote on November 8, a runoff election was held on December 6, 2022, between the top two candidates.
Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock, who won a 2021 special election runoff to complete former senator Johnny Isakson's term, sought his first full term. He won renomination in the May 24 primary with minimal opposition. Former football player Herschel Walker, who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, won the Republican nomination with 68% of the vote. Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, a first-time candidate who has never held political office, tallied just over 2% of the vote in the first round. Oliver, a former Democrat who campaigned on a platform of legalizing cannabis, criminal justice reform, tax reform, gun rights, and abortion rights, said he would listen to both candidates before deciding whether and for whom to vote in the runoff.[1]
In Georgia, a runoff election is required within four weeks of a federal election if no candidate wins over 50% of the vote. On November 9, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger confirmed that a runoff would be held on December 6 between the top two finishers, Warnock and Walker, after it became clear that no candidate had secured an outright majority.[2]
If Warnock wins re-election, he would become the first Democrat to be elected to a full term in this seat since Wyche Fowler in the 1986 U.S. Senate election in Georgia, and maintain the Senate Democrats majority and net gain in the 2022 midterms,[3] without having to rely on Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote as Vice President.[4] This was the first Senate election in Georgia history, and among five nationwide since the enactment of the Seventeenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution in 1913, in which both major party nominees are African-American.[a][5]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Raphael Warnock, incumbent U.S. Senator[6]
Eliminated in primary
- Tamara Johnson-Shealey, DeKalb County advocate and businesswoman[7]
Endorsements
Raphael Warnock
- State officials
- Demetrius Douglas, former professional football player and state representative from the 78th district (2013–present)[8]
- Organizations
- End Citizens United[9]
- Feminist Majority PAC[10]
- Giffords[11]
- GALEO Impact Fund[12]
- Human Rights Campaign[13]
- Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund[14]
- Jewish Dems[15]
- League of Conservation Voters[16]
- Let America Vote[9]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[17]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[18]
- Peace Action[19]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[20]
- Population Connection Action Fund[21]
- March On[22]
- Sierra Club[23]
- Labor unions
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tamara Johnson-Shealey |
Raphael Warnock |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | April 1–3, 2022 | 453 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 6% | 85% | 10% |
Results
Warnock
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Raphael Warnock (incumbent) | 702,610 | 96.04% | |
| Democratic | Tamara Johnson-Shealey | 28,984 | 3.96% | |
| Total votes | 731,594 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Herschel Walker, former running back for the Georgia Bulldogs, former professional football player, and co-chair of the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition and CEO of Renaissance Man Food Services[26]
Eliminated in primary
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- Gary Black, Agriculture Commissioner of Georgia[27]
- Josh Clark, former state representative and businessman[28]
- Kelvin King, U.S. Air Force veteran, businessman, and founder of Osprey Management[29][30]
- Jonathan McColumn, former U.S. Army Special Forces brigadier general and pastor[7]
- Latham Saddler, former Director of Intelligence Programs on the National Security Council and former Navy SEAL officer[29]
Declined
- Christopher M. Carr, Attorney General of Georgia (ran for re-election)[29]
- Buddy Carter, U.S. Representative for Georgia's 1st congressional district (ran for re-election; endorsed Walker)[31][32]
- Doug Collins, former U.S. Representative for Georgia's 9th congressional district and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020[33][34]
- Geoff Duncan, Lieutenant Governor of Georgia and former state representative[35][36]
- Randy Evans, former U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg[35][37] (endorsed Walker)
- Drew Ferguson, U.S. Representative for Georgia's 3rd congressional district (ran for re-election)[38]
- Vernon Jones, former Democratic state representative and CEO of DeKalb County (ran for the U.S. House in GA-10)[39]
- Brian Kemp, Governor of Georgia (ran for re-election)[40]
- Jack Kingston, former U.S. Representative for Georgia's 1st congressional district[29]
- Kelly Loeffler, former U.S. Senator[41]
- Harold Melton, former Chief Justice of Georgia Supreme Court[42][43]
- David Perdue, former U.S. Senator[44][45][46] (initially filed paperwork; ran for Governor)[47]
- David Ralston, Speaker of the Georgia House of Representatives[48]
Debates
| 2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Georgia debates | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Date | Organizer | Location | Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
Source | ||||||
| Gary Black | Josh Clark | Kelvin King | Jonathan McColumn | Latham Saddler | Herschel Walker | ||||||
| 1 | April 9, 2022 | Georgia's 9th congressional district Republican Party | Gainesville | P | P | P | P | P | A | [49] | |
| 2 | May 3, 2022 | Atlanta Press Club, Georgia Public Broadcasting |
Atlanta | P | P | P | P | P | A | [50] | |
Endorsements
Gary Black
- Governors
- Nathan Deal, 82nd Governor of Georgia (2011–2019)[51]
- U.S. Representatives
- Andrew Clyde, U.S. Representative for Georgia's 9th congressional district (2021–present)[52]
- Doug Collins, former U.S. Representative for Georgia's 9th congressional district (2013–2021), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[52]
- State Officials
- Bubba McDonald, Georgia Public Service Commissioner[52]
Herschel Walker
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[53]
- U.S. Senators
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Senator from Tennessee (2019–present)[54]
- Steve Daines, U.S. Senator from Montana (2015–present)[55]
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2003–present)[55]
- Roger Marshall, U.S. Senator from Kansas (2021–present)[55]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S Senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2021–present, 2007–2015), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)[56]
- Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present)[55]
- John Thune, U.S. Senator from South Dakota (2005–present), Senate Minority Whip (2021–present), and former Senate Majority Whip (2019–2021)[55]
- Tommy Tuberville, U.S. Senator from Alabama (2021–present)[57]
- Bill Hagerty, U.S. Senator from Tennessee (2021–present)[58]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)[58]
- U.S. Representatives
- Buddy Carter, U.S. Representative for Georgia's 1st congressional district (2015–present)[32]
- Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–present)[59]
- Individuals
- Sean Hannity, American talk show host and conservative political commentator[60]
- Organizations
Polling
- Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Gary Black |
Josh Clark |
Kelvin King |
Jonathan McColumn |
Latham Saddler |
Herschel Walker |
Other [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | May 12–23, 2022 | May 24, 2022 | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 9.0% | 64.7% | 12.9% | Walker +55.7 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gary Black |
Josh Clark |
Kelvin King |
Jonathan McColumn |
Latham Saddler |
Herschel Walker |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | May 21–23, 2022 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 10% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 10% | 67% | – | 4% |
| Landmark Communications (R) | May 22, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 9% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 12% | 60% | – | 9% |
| Fox News | May 12–16, 2022 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 66% | 1% | 11% |
| ARW Strategies (R) | April 30 – May 1, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 59% | – | 23% |
| SurveyUSA | April 22–27, 2022 | 559 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 62% | – | 21% |
| University of Georgia | April 10–22, 2022 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 66% | – | 23% |
| Landmark Communications (R) | April 9–10, 2022 | 660 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 64% | – | 14% |
| Spry Strategies (R) | April 6–10, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 7% | 2% | 4% | – | 2% | 64% | – | 21% |
| University of Georgia | March 20 – April 8, 2022 | ~329 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 64% | – | 24% |
| Emerson College | April 1–3, 2022 | 509 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 13% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 57% | 2%[d] | 16% |
| Fox News | March 2–6, 2022 | 914 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 8% | 1% | 3% | – | 2% | 66% | 1% | 16% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | February 28 – March 1, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 6% | 3% | 4% | – | 3% | 63% | 2% | 20% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | February 11–13, 2022 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 6% | – | 2% | – | 3% | 70% | – | 19% |
| Quinnipiac University | January 19–24, 2022 | 666 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 6% | 0% | 2% | – | 1% | 81% | 0%[e] | 9% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[A] | October 11–14, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 6% | – | 1% | – | 1% | 74% | 2%[f] | 16% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 2–4, 2021 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 6% | – | 2% | – | 3% | 76% | – | 13% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[B] | August 11–12, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 5% | – | 2% | – | 1% | 54% | 3%[g] | 35% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Doug Collins |
Marjorie Taylor Greene |
Kelly Loeffler |
Herschel Walker |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | March 14–15, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 7% | 22% | 27% | 11% |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | March 7–9, 2021 | – (LV)[h] | – | 33% | – | 24% | 33% | 11% |
- Primary runoff polling
- Doug Collins vs. Kelly Loeffler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Doug Collins |
Kelly Loeffler |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | March 14–15, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 36% | 10% |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | March 7–9, 2021 | – (LV)[h] | – | 52% | 32% | 16% |
- Herschel Walker vs. Doug Collins
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Herschel Walker |
Doug Collins |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | March 7–9, 2021 | – (LV)[h] | – | 50% | 36% | 14% |
- Herschel Walker vs. Kelly Loeffler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Herschel Walker |
Kelly Loeffler |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | March 7–9, 2021 | – (LV)[h] | – | 62% | 26% | 11% |
Results
Walker
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Herschel Walker | 803,560 | 68.18% | |
| Republican | Gary Black | 157,370 | 13.35% | |
| Republican | Latham Saddler | 104,471 | 8.86% | |
| Republican | Josh Clark | 46,693 | 3.96% | |
| Republican | Kelvin King | 37,930 | 3.22% | |
| Republican | Jonathan McColumn | 28,601 | 2.43% | |
| Total votes | 1,178,625 | 100.0% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- Chase Oliver, chair of the Atlanta Libertarian Party, customer service specialist and candidate for Georgia's 5th congressional district in the 2020 special election[64][65]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[66] | Tossup | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[67] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2022 |
| Politico[69] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[70] | Tossup | February 24, 2022 |
| Fox News[71] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
| DDHQ[72] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
| FiveThirtyEight[73] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2022 |
| The Economist[74] | Tossup | November 1, 2022 |
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Libertarian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
|||||||
| Raphael Warnock | Herschel Walker | Chase Oliver | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 14, 2022 | Nexstar Media Group | Buck Lanford Tina Tyus-Shaw |
P | P | N | |
| 2 | Oct. 16, 2022 | Georgia Public Broadcasting | Scott Slade | [75] | P | A | P |
Endorsements
Raphael Warnock (D)
- Executive Branch officials
- Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021–present)[76]
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009–2017)[77]
- U.S. Senators
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013–present)[78]
- Jon Ossoff, U.S. Senator from Georgia (2021–present)[79]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)[76]
- U.S. Representatives
- Sanford Bishop, U.S. Representative for Georgia's 2nd congressional district (1993–present)[80]
- Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (2019–present; 2007–2011) and U.S. Representative for California's 12th congressional district (2013–present)[81]
- Nikema Williams, U.S. Representative for Georgia's 5th congressional district (2021–present)[82]
- State officials
- John Fetterman, Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2019–present), and nominee for U.S. Senate[83]
- Stacey Abrams, former Minority Leader of the Georgia House of Representatives, founder of Fair Fight Action, and nominee for Governor of Georgia in 2018 and 2022[84]
- James Beverly, state representative from the 143rd district (2013–present)[80]
- William Boddie, state representative from the 62nd district (2017–present)[80]
- Demetrius Douglas, former professional football player and state representative from the 78th district (2013–present)[8]
- Gloria Frazier, state representative from the 126th district (2013–present)[85]
- Harold V. Jones II, state senator for the 22nd district (2015–present)[86]
- Jen Jordan, state senator for the 6th district (2017–present)[87]
- David Lucas, state senator for the 26th district (2013–present)[80]
- Miriam Paris, state representative from the 142nd district (2017–present)[80]
- Local officials
- Kelly Girtz, Mayor of Athens, Georgia (2019–present)[87]
- Individuals
- J. J. Abrams, filmmaker[88]
- Arianna Afsar, singer[89]
- Waka Flocka Flame, rapper[90]
- LeBron James, professional basketball player[91]
- Daniel Dae Kim, actor[89]
- Min Jin Lee, author[89]
- Spike Lee, film director[92]
- Jeannie Mai, television host[89]
- Gucci Mane, entertainer[93]
- Dave Matthews, singer[94]
- Killer Mike, rapper[95]
- Lin-Manuel Miranda, composer and filmmaker[96]
- Michelle Obama, former First Lady of the United States (2009–2017)[97]
- Martin Sheen, actor[98]
- Steven Spielberg, film director[88]
- Kerry Washington, actress[99]
- Oprah Winfrey, businesswoman and talk show host[100]
- Henry Winkler, actor[101]
- Stevie Wonder, singer and songwriter[102]
- Organizations
- Actors' Equity Association[103]
- Asian-American Advocacy Fund[104][citation needed]
- End Citizens United[9]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[104]
- Feminist Majority PAC[10]
- Giffords[11]
- Human Rights Campaign[13]
- Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund[14]
- Jewish Dems[15]
- League of Conservation Voters[16]
- Let America Vote[9]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[17]
- National Association of Social Workers[105]
- National Organization for Women[104]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[18]
- Peace Action[19]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[20]
- Population Connection Action Fund[21]
- March On[22]
- Sierra Club[23]
- Labor unions
Herschel Walker (R)
- Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[53]
- Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2019) and former Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[108]
- Mike Pompeo, former U.S. Secretary of State (2018–2021) and former Director of the CIA (2017–2018)[108]
- State officials
- Pam Bondi, Attorney General of Florida (2011–2019)[109]
- Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present)[110]
- Brian Kemp, Governor of Georgia (2019–present)[111]
- Mark Newton, state representative from the 123rd district (2017–present)[112]
- Jodi Lott, state representative from the 122nd district (2015–present)[112]
- Jesse Petrea, state representative from the 166th district (2015–present)[113]
- Randy Robertson, state senator from the 29th district (2019–present)[109]
- Ron Stephens, state representative from the 164th district (2005–present)[113]
- U.S. Senators
- Katie Britt, U.S. Senator-elect from Alabama[114]
- Saxby Chambliss, U.S. Senator from Georgia (2003–2015)[115]
- John Cornyn, U.S. Senator from Texas (2002–present)[116]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[117]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)[58][118]
- Steve Daines, U.S. Senator from Montana (2015–present)[55]
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2003–present)[55]
- Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present)[119]
- John Kennedy, U.S. Senator from Louisiana (2017–present)[120][121]
- Kelly Loeffler, U.S. Senator from Georgia (2020–2021)[122]
- Roger Marshall, U.S. Senator from Kansas (2021–present)[55]
- Mack Mattingly, U.S. Senator from Georgia (1981–1987)[115]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2021–present, 2007–2015), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)[56]
- David Perdue, U.S. Senator from Georgia (2015–2021)[115]
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present)[123]
- Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present)[124]
- John Thune, U.S. Senator from South Dakota (2005–present), Senate Minority Whip (2021–present), and former Senate Majority Whip (2019–2021)[55]
- Tommy Tuberville, U.S. Senator from Alabama (2021–present)[57]
- U.S. Representatives
- Rick W. Allen, U.S. Representative for Georgia's 12th congressional district (2015–present)[112]
- Don Bacon, U.S. Representative for Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (2017–present)[125]
- Buddy Carter, U.S. Representative for Georgia's 1st congressional district (2015–present)[126]
- Tulsi Gabbard, former U.S. Representative for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district (2013–2021) (Independent)[109]
- Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995–1999) and former U.S. Representative for Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999)[127]
- Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–present)[59]
- Individuals
- Bobby Christine, District Attorney of the Columbia County Judicial Circuit (2021–present)[112]
- Vince Dooley, former head coach of the Georgia Bulldogs (deceased)[128][citation needed]
- Sean Hannity, talk show host and conservative political commentator[60][citation needed]
- Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee[129]
- Chuck Norris, martial artist and actor[130]
- Ralph Reed, political consultant[131]
- Kanye West, rapper, businessman, and fashion designer[132]
- Organizations
- American Conservative Union[63]
- Black America's Political Action Committee[61]
- Campaign for Working Families[133]
- National Right to Life[62]
Declined to endorse
- Statewide officials
- Gary Black, Agriculture Commissioner of Georgia (2011–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (Republican)[134]
- Geoff Duncan, Lieutenant Governor of Georgia (2019–present) (Republican)[135]
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Raphael Warnock (D) |
Herschel Walker (R) |
Other [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | October 29 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 47.4% | 48.8% | 3.8% | Walker +1.4 |
| FiveThirtyEight | October 13 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 46.7% | 47.7% | 5.69% | Walker +1.0 |
| 270ToWin | November 4–7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 47.3% | 48.5% | 5.1% | Walker +1.2 |
| Average | 47.1% | 48.3% | 4.6% | Walker +1.2 | ||
- Graphical summary
| Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Raphael Warnock (D) |
Herschel Walker (R) |
Chase Oliver (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | November 5–7, 2022 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 49% | – | 5%[i] | – |
| Landmark Communications | November 4–7, 2022 | 1,214 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 47% | 5% | – | 2% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | November 6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 49% | 1% | – | 4% |
| Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 47% | 1% | – | 5% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 4–6, 2022 | 1,103 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 50% | 2% | – | 2% |
| Data for Progress (D) | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,474 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% | – | – |
| Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 579 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 49% | 1% | 2%[j] | – |
| East Carolina University | November 2–5, 2022 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 49% | 2% | – | – |
| Amber Integrated (R) | November 1–2, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 3% | – | 4% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | November 1–2, 2022 | 1,150 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 49% | 2% | – | 4% |
| Echleon Insights | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 45% | 49% | 3% | – | 3% |
| 45% | 52% | – | – | 3% | ||||
| Marist College | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,168 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 45% | – | 1%[k] | 6% |
| 1,009 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 48% | – | 1%[k] | 3% | ||
| Moore Information Group (R)[C] | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 49% | 2% | – | 5% |
| SurveyUSA | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 1,171 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 43% | 3% | – | 5% |
| Patinkin Research Strategies (D)[D] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 45% | 4% | – | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 28–31, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 1% | 1%[l] | 2% |
| 50% | 48% | 2% | 1%[l] | – | ||||
| Fox News | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | – | 6%[m] | 6% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 27, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 48% | 2% | <1%[n] | 5% |
| Siena College/NYT | October 24–27, 2022 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 46% | 1% | – | 4% |
| University of Georgia | October 16–27, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 46% | 5% | – | 5% |
| co/efficient (R) | October 24–25, 2022 | 946 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 47% | 3% | – | 6% |
| Moore Information Group (R)[C] | October 22–25, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | 3% | – | – |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | October 23–24, 2022 | 1,053 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 48% | – | 4%[o] | 4% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[E] | October 21–23, 2022 | 1,076 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 49% | 5% | – | – |
| East Carolina University | October 13–18, 2022 | 905 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 47% | – | 2%[p] | 3% |
| Landmark Communications | October 15–17, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 46% | 3% | – | 2% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 13–17, 2022 | 984 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 3% | – | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 16, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 43% | 4% | 1%[q] | 6% |
| Wick Insights (R) | October 8–14, 2022 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 46% | – | 3%[r] | 5% |
| Civiqs | October 8–11, 2022 | 717 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 46% | – | 3%[r] | 1% |
| Moore Information Group (R)[C] | October 8–11, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 4% | – | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 8–11, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | 4% | – | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 7–10, 2022 | 1,157 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 45% | – | 1%[s] | 1% |
| Emerson College | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1%[l] | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 4, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 44% | 3% | 1%[q] | 5% |
| SurveyUSA | September 30 – October 4, 2022 | 1,076 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 38% | – | 5%[t] | 7% |
| University of Georgia | September 25 – October 4, 2022 | 1,030 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 43% | 4% | – | 6% |
| Fox News | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,011 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 41% | – | 6%[u] | 7% |
| Data for Progress (D) | September 16–20, 2022 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 4% | – | 3% |
| YouGov/CBS News | September 14–19, 2022 | 1,178 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 49% | – | – | 0% |
| University of Georgia | September 5–16, 2022 | 861 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 46% | – | 3% | 7% |
| Marist College | September 12–15, 2022 | 1,202 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 42% | 4% | – | 7% |
| 992 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | 4% | – | 4% | ||
| Kurt Jetta (D)[F] | September 9–12, 2022 | 949 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 37% | – | – | 13% |
| 542 (LV) | 49% | 45% | – | – | 7% | |||
| Quinnipiac University | September 8–12, 2022 | 1,278 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 52% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 751 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | – | – | 10% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | September 6–7, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 47% | 4% | – | 5% |
| Emerson College | August 28–29, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 46% | – | 4% | 7% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 24–27, 2022 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 48% | 3% | – | 3% |
| Phillips Academy | August 3–7, 2022 | 971 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 45% | – | – | 11% |
| Research Affiliates (D)[G] | July 26 – August 1, 2022 | 420 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 46% | – | – | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | July 26–27, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
| Fox News | July 22–26, 2022 | 908 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 1% | 9% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[H] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 46% | – | 3% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA | July 21–24, 2022 | 604 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 48% | 39% | – | 5% | 8% |
| University of Georgia | July 14–22, 2022 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 43% | 3% | – | 8% |
| Beacon Research (D)[I] | July 5–20, 2022 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 36% | – | 2% | 11% |
| 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | – | 1% | 7% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | July 5–11, 2022 | 1,197 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 47% | – | – | 3% |
| Data for Progress (D) | July 1–6, 2022 | 1,131 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | – | – | 4% |
| Change Research (D)[J] | June 24–27, 2022 | 704 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 44% | – | – | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 23–27, 2022 | 1,497 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 54% | 44% | – | 0% | 3% |
| Moore Information Group (R)[C] | June 11–16, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | – | – | 6% |
| East Carolina University | June 6–9, 2022 | 868 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 47% | – | 2% | 4% |
| SurveyUSA | April 22–27, 2022 | 1,278 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 45% | – | – | 5% |
| Grassroots Targeting (R)[A] | April 3–16, 2022 | 2,500 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 41% | 51% | – | – | 8% |
| Emerson College | April 1–3, 2022 | 1,013 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 49% | – | – | 6% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | March 2–8, 2022 | 662 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 49% | – | – | 6% |
| Change Research (D)[J] | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | – | – | 3% |
| Wick Insights (R) | February 2–6, 2022 | 1,290 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | – | – | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University | January 19–24, 2022 | 1,702 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 49% | – | 0% | 3% |
| University of Georgia | January 13–24, 2022 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 47% | – | 1% | 8% |
| NRSC (R)[K] | December 4–8, 2021 | 831 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 49% | – | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 9, 2021 | 753 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 39% | – | 2% | 8% |
| 733 (LV) | 48% | 42% | – | 2% | 6% | |||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | August 4–5, 2021 | 622 (V) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 46% | – | – | 6% |
| The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) | March 7–9, 2021 | 1,093 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 48% | – | 3% | 4% |
Hypothetical polling
- Raphael Warnock vs. Gary Black
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Raphael Warnock (D) |
Gary Black (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Georgia | January 13–24, 2022 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 41% | 1% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | August 4–5, 2021 | 622 (V) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 38% | – | 16% |
- Raphael Warnock vs. Kelly Loeffler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Raphael Warnock (D) |
Kelly Loeffler (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | August 4–5, 2021 | 622 (V) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
| The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) | March 7–9, 2021 | 1,093 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 41% | 8% | 5% |
- Raphael Warnock vs. Doug Collins
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Raphael Warnock (D) |
Doug Collins (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) | March 7–9, 2021 | 1,093 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | 5% | 5% |
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grassroots Targeting (R)[A] | April 3–16, 2022 | 2,500 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 52% | 8% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Raphael Warnock (incumbent) | 1,946,117 | 49.44% | +1.05% | |
| Republican | Herschel Walker | 1,908,442 | 48.49% | −0.88% | |
| Libertarian | Chase Oliver | 81,365 | 2.07% | +1.35% | |
| Total votes | 3,935,924 | 100.0% | |||
Runoff
Following the projection of incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto's victory in Nevada, it became clear that, unlike in the previous cycle, the results of the Georgia runoff would not determine control of the United States Senate. With all Democratic incumbents besides Warnock winning re-election and Democrat John Fetterman flipping an open seat in Pennsylvania that had been held by retiring Republican Pat Toomey, Democrats held their majority in the Senate.[v][137] Nevertheless, national Democrats and Republicans began spending on advertising and volunteer mobilization efforts as soon as it became apparent that a runoff election would be necessary.[138] Historically, runoff elections in Georgia have favored Republicans as turnout decreased disproportionately amongst Democratic voters, but in 2021, with Senate control to be determined, turnout was historically high.[139] Prior to the runoff, elections analysts questioned whether Georgia voters would turn out in such high numbers again and tried to determine which candidate's coalition of supporters would be more likely to turn out.[140]
The early vote window was shorter in 2022 than in 2021 due to Georgia's Election Integrity Act of 2021, which reduced the gap between general and runoff elections from nine to four weeks.[141] State officials also said that there could be no weekend early voting: Georgia state law bars early voting from taking place the Saturday immediately before an election (December 3), and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger argued that early voting also could not take place the next preceding Saturday (November 26), as it fell two days after Thanksgiving (November 24) and the day after a Georgia state holiday established to commemorate Confederate general Robert E. Lee's birthday (November 25).[w][144] On Friday, November 18, a Fulton County Superior Court judge ruled that, despite the holidays, county boards of election could legally offer early voting on Saturday, November 26;[145] that decision was upheld by the Georgia Court of Appeals on Monday, November 21,[146] and by the Supreme Court of Georgia on Wednesday, November 23.[147] Ultimately, 27 of Georgia's 159 counties chose to offer early voting on Saturday,[148] including the state's four largest counties, Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, and DeKalb.[149]
While Democrats retained control of the Senate during the 118th Congress regardless of the outcome of the Georgia runoff, it will still affect the functioning of that majority. During the 117th Congress, Democrats made power-sharing agreements with Republicans, such as evenly dividing committee memberships between the two parties and giving Republicans greater ability to delay judicial appointments; if Walker wins, and the Senate remains evenly split, such an arrangement would continue; if Warnock wins, and Democrats attain an outright 51–49 majority, they would be able to take full control of Senate committees and expedite judicial confirmations.[150] Looking beyond the 118th Congress, many analysts have noted that the outcome of this race will affect Democrats' prospects in the 2024 U.S. Senate elections. Election forecasters have noted that Democrats hold a number of seats up for election in 2024 which will be difficult for the party to defend,[x] and therefore that holding Georgia's seat would make it much easier for the party to maintain Senate control going forward.[150][151]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[152] | Tossup | November 18, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[153] | Tilt D | December 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[154] | Lean D | December 5, 2022 |
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Raphael Warnock (D) |
Herschel Walker (R) |
Undecided [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | November 11 – December 4, 2022 | December 5, 2022 | 51.0% | 47.3% | 1.5% | Warnock +3.7 |
| FiveThirtyEight | November 26 – December 5, 2022 | December 5, 2022 | 51.1% | 47.2% | 2.1% | Warnock +3.9 |
| 270ToWin | November 22 – December 5, 2022 | December 5, 2022 | 51.0% | 47.7% | 1.5% | Warnock +3.8 |
| Average | 51.1% | 47.7% | 1.6% | Warnock +3.8 | ||
- Graphical summary
| Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Raphael Warnock (D) |
Herschel Walker (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | December 3–5, 2022 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 47% | – | 2% |
| Data for Progress (D) | December 1–5, 2022 | 1,229 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 49% | – | – |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | December 4, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% |
| Landmark Communications | December 4, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 47% | – | 1% |
| Mitchell Research | December 4, 2022 | 625 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
| Patriot Polling | November 30 – December 2, 2022 | 818 (RV) | – | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
| Emerson College | November 28–30, 2022 | 888 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 49% | – | – |
| 49% | 47% | – | 4% | ||||
| SurveyUSA | November 26–30, 2022 | 1,214 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 47% | – | 3% |
| 50% | 46% | – | 4% | ||||
| CNN/SSRS | November 25–29, 2022 | 1,886 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 44% | 5%[y] | – |
| 1,184 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 48% | 1%[z] | – | ||
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | November 18–28, 2022 | 1,300 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 46% | – | 2% |
| Phillips Academy | November 26–27, 2022 | 862 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 48% | – | 5% |
| Frederick Polls (D)[L] | November 23–26, 2022 | 939 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 50% | – | – |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | November 11–17, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 47% | – | 2% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Raphael Warnock (incumbent) | ||||
| Republican | Herschel Walker | ||||
| Total votes | |||||
See also
- 2022 United States Senate elections
- 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Georgia
- 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
Notes
- ^ After the 2004 United States Senate election in Illinois and the 2014 United States Senate special election in South Carolina, the 2016 United States Senate election in South Carolina, and concurrently with the 2022 United States Senate election in South Carolina.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b c Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Nestor with 2%
- ^ Craig and Nestor with 0%
- ^ Craig and Nestor with 1%
- ^ Carter with 3%
- ^ a b c d Likely Republican primary voter subsample of 1,093 likely general election voters
- ^ "Other candidate/Don't know" with 5%
- ^ "All others" with 2%
- ^ a b "Another party's candidate" with 1%
- ^ a b c "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 4%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
- ^ "Other" with <1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ a b "Other" with 1%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- ^ "Other candidate" with 5%
- ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
- ^ Two independent senators caucus with Senate Democrats and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tie-breaking vote.
- ^ While Lee's birthday was January 19, the state of Georgia had traditionally observed the holiday on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Since 2016, Georgia no longer references Lee on its official calendar, but the day is still observed as a state holiday and government operations are closed.[142][143]
- ^ Three Class 1 Democrats represent states won by Trump in 2020 (Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia), while no Class 1 Republicans represent states won by Biden. In addition, five Class 1 Democrats represent states won by Biden by less than his national popular vote margin (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
- ^ "Do not plan to vote" with 5%
- ^ "Do not plan to vote" with 1%
- Partisan clients
- ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by 34N22 Leadership, which supports Walker
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Save America PAC
- ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by Walker's campaign
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Progress Georgia, an organization affiliated with the Georgia Democratic Party.
- ^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Walker
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Charlie Bailey's campaign for lieutenant governor
- ^ This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
- ^ This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
- ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America's Future Majority Fund
- ^ This poll was sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
- ^ Poll conducted for COMPETE Everywhere, a digital marketing firm associated with the Democratic Party.
References
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Georgia Public Service Commissioner Bubba McDonald also spoke, and U.S. Rep. Andrew Clyde, R-Athens, spoke to the audience by phone from Washington.
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External links
- Official campaign websites