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Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign

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Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign
Campaign
CandidateDonald Trump
45th President of the United States
(2017–2021)
AffiliationRepublican Party
StatusAnnounced: November 15, 2022
HeadquartersMar-a-Lago,
Palm Beach, Florida
Slogan
Website
www.donaldjtrump.com
This article is part of
a series about
Donald Trump
Business and personal
45th & 47th President of the
United States
Tenure
Policies
Appointments (first  · second)
Presidential campaigns
Impeachments
Civil and criminal prosecutions
COVID-19 pandemic
Donald Trump's signature
Seal of the President of the United States

On November 15, 2022, former President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced his campaign a second non-consecutive presidential term in a speech at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida.

Trump reportedly had been considering a 2024 presidential run after his loss in the 2020 U.S. presidential election to Democratic Party challenger Joe Biden.[1][2] Trump denied the results of the election, promoting false and discredited claims of voter fraud, and attempted to overturn the results. In the week of November 9, 2020, Trump indicated to Republican Party senator Kevin Cramer: "If this doesn't work out, I'll just run again in four years."[3] In a speech at the February 2021 meeting of the Conservative Political Action Conference, Trump "teased a White House run in four years", and won 55% of the vote in the CPAC straw poll, more than double the support of the next contender, Florida governor Ron DeSantis.[4] The following month, Bloomberg News reported that Trump was "strongly considering another run for president in 2024" but likely would not formally announce his candidacy until the summer of 2023.[5] Trump repeatedly made statements interpreted by pundits as hints that he would run again in 2024.[6] On December 3, 2022, Trump called for the "termination" of the US constitution, and his immediate reinstatement to power.[7][8][9][10][11]

Biden chief of staff Ron Klain indicated that the Biden administration was "anticipating a bruising general election matchup" if Trump ran.[12] In a March 2022 press conference, when asked about the possibility that Trump could be his opponent in 2024, Biden replied, "I'd be very fortunate if I had that same man running against me", prompting speculation about Biden's motives in making such a statement.[13] In December 2021, CNN reported that "Trump's wait-and-see approach to the 2024 election has frozen the next Republican presidential primary", with potential challengers keeping their heads down while awaiting Trump's official decision on the matter.[14]

After months of speculation, Trump announced his candidacy for president in a November 15, 2022, speech to supporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.[15][16] His announcement received wide media coverage and a mixed response from both Democrats and Republicans. Some Democrats warily welcomed the campaign, viewing Trump as beatable,[17][18] while others opposed it, citing negative effects it could have on U.S. democracy.[19][20][21] Some Republicans, consisting mostly of Trump loyalists, welcomed the campaign, while others opposed it, viewing Trump as a weak and beatable candidate who had lost the Republicans the past several election cycles.[22][23][24] If Trump's run succeeds, he would break Biden's record as the oldest candidate ever to be elected to the presidency.[25]

Background

Previous activities and controversies

Main article: Presidency of Donald Trump

Trump won the 2016 general election with an electoral vote of 304 to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 227. Trump lost the popular vote, receiving nearly 3 million fewer votes than Clinton, the greatest margin of any winning presidential candidate in history;[26] he was thereby elected the 45th president of the United States on November 8, 2016, and inaugurated on January 20, 2017. He unsuccessfully sought reelection in the 2020 United States presidential election, losing to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who obtained an electoral vote of 306 to Trump's 232. Trump also lost the popular vote by 7 million votes.[27] With one week remaining in his presidency, Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives for incitement of insurrection for his actions during the January 6 Capitol Hill attack a week earlier, but was ultimately acquitted in the Republican-controlled Senate because the 57–43 vote in favor of conviction fell short of the 2/3 supermajority (67 out of 100 senators) required. Trump is the only US president to have been impeached twice.[28] Trump continues to falsely claim that the election was stolen, which has led to ongoing controversy within the Republican party.

Trump is generally regarded by presidential historians and scholars as one of the worst presidents in U.S. history.[29][30] One representative survey of presidential experts rated Trump last in overall ability, background, integrity, intelligence, and executive appointments, and next to last in party leadership, relationship to congress, and ability to compromise.[30] Among the American public, Trump's average 41 percent approval rating was the lowest of any president since Gallup began polling, and he left office with a 34 percent approval rating and 62 percent disapproval rating in his final polls.[31]

As of December 2022, Trump is facing numerous lawsuits and criminal investigations into his activities.[32][33] The four major criminal investigations currently involving Trump concern: 1) his alleged improper removal of a large number of classified documents to his home in Mar-a-Lago following his presidency; 2) his alleged actions during the January 6 Capitol Hill attack; 3) his alleged attempts to intimidate Georgia election officials and obstruct the results of the presidential election in Georgia in 2020; 4) and his alleged financial fraud in misrepresenting his assets when attempting to secure loans and valuation for his businesses.[32] The chairman of Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, Paul Manafort , his former chief political strategist, Steve Bannon, and former campaign counsel, Michael Cohen, have all been convicted of various crimes and sentenced to prison since 2018.[34][35][36] At least 8 other members of Trump’s prior campaigns have been charged with crimes since 2017.[37]

Discussions of potential candidacy

In the days before the end of his term in January 2021, Trump began discussing the possibility of forming a third party, to be called the "Patriot Party", to contest the election against both Democratic and Republican candidates.[38] Spokesmen for Trump later denied that he had such plans.[39]

In March 2021, Trump's niece, psychologist Mary L. Trump, asserted that Trump will not run a genuine campaign for the presidency again, but will "pretend" to run for president in order to profit off of the publicity generated by such an effort.[40] In April 2021, however, CNN reported that Trump was "yearning to return to the White House" and that Trump's support of candidates for other races at that time was "principally aimed at supporting that goal".[41]

In July 2022, as the public hearings of the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack were progressing, Trump was reportedly considering making an early announcement of his 2024 candidacy.[42][43] On July 14, 2022, Intelligencer published an interview with Trump, based upon which they reported that Trump had already made up his mind, and was just deciding when to declare.[44] Following the August 2022 FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, many of Trump's allies urged that he announce his candidacy sooner, including some who had previously advised that he defer an announcement until after the mid-term elections.[45] During a rally in Iowa in the run-up to the 2022 United States midterm elections, Trump stated, "in order to make our country successful and safe and glorious, I will very, very, very probably do it again", indicating that he might announce his candidacy soon thereafter, prompting speculation that he would announce as soon as the week of November 14, 2022.[46][47]

Eligibility

The question of Trump's eligibility to run for president in 2024 is delineated by the US Constitution. Two amendments addressing this issue are the 14th and 22nd Amendments.

Eligibility under the 22nd Amendment

Trump has only been elected president once, in 2016, so is not limited from running again by the 22nd Amendment, which permits two full terms. Even before losing the 2020 election, he publicly proclaimed his willingness to seek a third term in 2024, despite this being explicitly prohibited. Trump claimed that Barack Obama had spied on him and his campaign, and that this meant he was "'entitled' [to a third term] because he was spied on."[48][49][50]

Trump is seeking to become the second president to serve non-consecutive terms, after Grover Cleveland who was re-elected in 1892. The last one-term president to campaign for a second non-consecutive term was Herbert Hoover, who after serving from 1929 to 1933 made unsuccessful runs in 1936 and 1940.[51]

Eligibility under the 14th Amendment

In the aftermath of the American Civil War, the 14th Amendment was passed. Section 3 of the amendment prohibits anyone from holding public office if they had previously sworn an oath to support the Constitution, but then "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [United States], or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof." The full text of this section reads:

Section 3. No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may, by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

Trump's role in the January 6 United States Capitol attack is cited by opponents as a reason for his disqualification from seeking public office. On January 10, 2021, Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, formally requested Representatives' input as to whether Section 3 pertained to the outgoing President.[52][53] On January 13, 2021, the House of Representatives impeached Trump for 'incitement of insurrection' by a vote of 232-to-197. On February 13, 2021, the Senate voted on the charge, with 57 senators casting votes of 'Guilty' to 43 as 'Not Guilty'; removal by impeachment requires a two-thirds supermajority.

Some legal experts believe a court would be required to make a final determination if Trump was disqualified under Section 3.[54] In September 2022, a New Mexico District Court Judge removed local official Couy Griffin from office due to his participation in the January 6 attack,[55][56] which some commentators felt established a precedent to bar Trump from office.[57] A state may also make a determination that Trump is disqualified under Section 3 from appearing on that state's ballot.[52] Trump could appeal in court any disqualification by Congress or by a state.[58] In addition to state or federal legislative action, a court action could be brought against Trump seeking his disqualification under Section 3.[59] The 14th Amendment itself provides a path for Trump to assert eligibility in such a case:[citation needed]

"But Congress may, by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."

Announcement

On November 15, 2022, Trump announced his candidacy at Mar-a-Lago in an hour-long speech.[60][61][62][63] The announcement came one week after the election in which Trump-endorsed House candidates underperformed non-Trump-endorsed candidates by seven percentage points.[64] His announcement speech was "full of exaggerated and false talking points"[61] and at least "20 false and misleading claims",[62] uttering the first inaccurate claim "about two minutes in and a few minutes later, tick(ing) off at least four hyperbolic claims about his own accomplishments".[63] The New York Times Fact Check stated that "Mr. Trump repeated many familiar exaggerations about his own achievements, reiterated misleading attacks on political opponents and made dire assessments that were at odds with reality."[63]

The New York Post mocked Trump's announcement by relegating it to page 26 and noting it on the cover with a banner reading "Florida Man Makes Announcement".[65] The article referred to Mar-a-Lago as "Trump's classified-documents library" in reference to the ongoing investigation regarding Trump's alleged improper handling of classified materials which he had brought to Mar-a-Lago following his presidency for as yet unclear reasons.[65]

Attendees

The announcement was attended by comedian Alex Stein;[66] consultant Roger Stone; businessman Mike Lindell; Representative Madison Cawthorn (R-NC); former deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget Russell Vought; political advisor Jason Miller; attorney Kash Patel; political analyst Sebastian Gorka; and political aide Hogan Gidley.[67][68] The Insider noted "many members of congress were not in attendance", including Matt Gaetz.[67] Family members who attended included Trump's wife and former first lady Melania, Trump's sons Barron and Eric, Eric's wife Lara, and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. His daughters Ivanka and Tiffany did not attend the announcement party; Ivanka said she would not be engaging in politics going forward and would not be a part of her father's presidential bid.[69] Trump's son Donald Trump Jr. also did not attend.[67] Ivanka had been a senior advisor in her father's administration, and also was the director of the Office of Economic Initiatives and Entrepreneurship.[70][71][72]

Post-announcement developments

Three days after Trump announced his candidacy, U.S. Attorney General, Merrick Garland, appointed Jack Smith to serve as special counsel for the investigations regarding Trump's role in the January 6 attack and into mishandling of government records.[73][74] Special counsels can be appointed when there can be a conflict of interest or the appearance of it, and Garland said the announced political candidacies of both Trump and President Biden prompted him to take what he described as an "extraordinary step".[73] Special counsel investigations operate largely independent of Justice Department control under decades-old federal regulations, and Garland said the "appointment underscores the department’s commitment to both independence and accountability in particularly sensitive matters".[74]

In late November 2022, Kanye West announced his own candidacy for the 2024 presidential election. Shortly thereafter, West visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago, bringing with him Nick Fuentes, a white nationalist and Holocaust denier.[75][76] West claimed that after he asked Trump to be his vice-presidential candidate, "Trump started basically screaming at me at the table telling me I was going to lose".[77] Trump responded with a statement that West "unexpectedly showed up with three of his friends, whom I knew nothing about",[78] and in a further statement acknowledged advising West to drop out of the race.[79] Several other possible 2024 contenders spoke in the aftermath of this event, with Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson calling the meeting "very troubling",[80] and Trump's former vice president Mike Pence calling on Trump to apologize for giving Fuentes "a seat at the table".[81] Mitch McConnell said that Trump was unlikely to win the 2024 presidential election as a result of the dinner.[82]

On December 3, 2022, Trump called for the "termination" of the Constitution of the United States, and his immediate return to power.[7][8][9]

The Trump Organization was convicted of 17 counts of criminal fraud in December 2022, and polls indicated that a majority of Americans believed Trump should be charged with additional crimes.[83][84][85]

Vice-presidential choice

Main article: 2024 Republican Party vice presidential candidate selection

Mike Pence served as Trump's vice president from 2017 to 2021, with Pence having been Trump's chosen running mate in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. In March 2021, Bloomberg News reported that if Trump runs again in 2024, Pence "likely won't be on the ticket" and that Trump has "discussed alternatives to Pence", while Trump's advisors "have discussed identifying a Black or female running mate for his next run".[5] In June 2022, a former aide testified that Trump had opined to his staff during the Capitol hill attack that Pence "deserved" the chants of "hang Mike Pence" made by the mob.[86][87] Names raised as possible candidates for the position include South Dakota governor Kristi Noem and South Carolina senator Tim Scott.[5] In April 2021, Trump indicated that he was considering Florida governor Ron DeSantis for the position, noting his friendship with DeSantis and the swing state status of Florida.[88] Trump has since begun heavily criticizing DeSantis.[89][90]

Endorsements

Main article: 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries § Endorsements

A number of Republican officials at both federal and state levels were quick to endorse Trump's candidacy, while others were noted for being silent on the question, with a few stating opposition.[91][92][93][94][95][96][97]

Support

Politico noted in December 2020 that many Republican figures were expressing support for a Trump 2024 run, quoting Missouri Senator Josh Hawley as saying "If he were to run in 2024, I think he would be the nominee. And I would support him doing that."[98] National public opinion polling showed Trump quickly dominating the field of potential 2024 Republican candidates. Utah Senator Mitt Romney, though opposed to Trump, stated in February 2021 that if Trump ran in 2024, he would win the Republican nomination in a landslide.[99] The same month, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said that he would "absolutely" support Trump if the latter was nominated again.[100]

Russian state TV host Olga Skabeyeva said Russia, which interfered in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections to aid Trump, "will have to think whether to reinstall him again as the American president. "[101] In April 2022, American intelligence officials assessed that Russia intended to exact revenge on the Biden administration for its sanctions against Russia and aid for Ukraine by intervening in the election on Trump's behalf. A Russian state TV host Evgeny Popov said in March 2020, "to again help our partner Trump to become president".[102]

Journalist Judd Legum wrote in Popular Information blog the full extent to which Saudi Arabia has poured money into the Trump family, as Donald Trump launches his third consecutive campaign for the White House ahead of 2024. The total investment from the Saudis, Legum estimated, was in the "billions".[103]

Polling

General election polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Hypothetical polling
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/Undecided
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics April 19 – May 25, 2022 May 26, 2022 44.0% 45.2% 10.8% Trump +1.2
Poll source Date Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
Redfield and Wilton Strategies May 30, 2022 1,173 (LV) – 38% 42% 20%
Emerson College May 24–25, 2022 1,148 (RV) ± 2.8% 42% 44% 14%
Echelon Insights May 20–23, 2022 1,020 (LV) – 45% 44% 11%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 19–22, 2022 1,360 (RV) – 44% 42% 14%
Harvard/Harris May 18–19, 2022 1,963 (RV) – 42% 45% 13%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies May 17, 2022 1,120 (LV) – 39% 42% 19%
Rasmussen Reports April 28 – May 2, 2022 1,004 (LV) ± 3.0% 36% 50% 14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies May 1, 2022 1,096 (LV) – 40% 44% 16%
Emerson College April 25–26, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 43% 15%
McLaughlin & Associates April 22–26, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 43% 50% 7%
Morning Consult April 22–25, 2022 2,004 (RV) ± 2.0% 45% 44% 11%
InsiderAdvantage (R) April 21–23, 2022 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 43% 47% 10%
YouGov/Yahoo News April 19–22, 2022 1,187 (RV) – 43% 41% 16%
Harvard/Harris April 20–21, 2022 1,966 (RV) – 43% 45% 12%
Echelon Insights April 18–20, 2022 1,001 (LV) – 45% 44% 11%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies April 18, 2022 1,500 (LV) – 41% 43% 16%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 31 – April 4, 2022 1,233 (RV) – 45% 40% 15%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies April 3, 2022 1,205 (LV) – 38% 43% 19%
Marquette Law School Mar 14–24, 2022 1,004 (A) ± 4.0% 41% 37% 22%
Harvard/Harris Mar 23–24, 2022 1,990 (RV) – 41% 47% 12%
McLaughlin & Associates Mar 17–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 46% 49% 5%
Echelon Insights Mar 18–21, 2022 1,050 (RV) – 46% 44% 10%
University of Massachusetts Lowell Mar 15–21, 2022 873 (RV) ± 3.7% 44% 42% 14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies March 20, 2022 1,193 (LV) – 41% 41% 18%
Emerson College Mar 18–20, 2022 1,023 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 45% 13%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 10–14, 2022 1,225 (RV) – 47% 39% 14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies March 8, 2022 1,194 (LV) – 40% 42% 18%
Wall Street Journal Mar 2–7, 2022 1,500 (RV) – 45% 45% 9%
Schoen Cooperman Research Mar 2–6, 2022 800 (LV) – 44% 44% 12%
YouGov/Yahoo News Feb 24–27, 2022 1,532 (A) ± 2.9% 40% 39% 21%
NewsNation Feb 23–24, 2022 1,046 (RV) – 37% 41% 22%
Harvard/Harris Feb 23–24, 2022 2,026 (RV) – 42% 48% 10%
Echelon Insights Feb 19–23, 2022 1,078 (RV) – 45% 43% 12%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies February 23, 2022 1,367 (LV) – 42% 38% 20%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 16–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 45% 48% 7%
Emerson College Feb 19–20, 2022 1,138 (RV) ± 2.8% 44% 48% 8%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies February 6, 2022 1,406 (LV) – 41% 41% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News Jan 20–24, 2022 1,568 (A) ± 2.8% 42% 40% 18%
Morning Consult January 22–23, 2022 2,005 (RV) ± 2.0% 45% 44% 11%
Echelon Insights Jan 21–23, 2022 1,098 (RV) – 47% 43% 10%
Marquette Law School Jan 10–21, 2022 1,000 (A) – 43% 33% 24%
Harvard/Harris Jan 19–20, 2022 1,815 (RV) – 40% 46% 14%
McLaughlin & Associates Jan 13–18, 2022 1,000 (LV) – 44% 49% 7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies January 8–9, 2022 1,430 (LV) – 39% 38% 23%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac January 6, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 44% 11%
Rasmussen Reports January 5, 2022 1,015 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 46% 14%
InsiderAdvantage (R) Dec 17–19, 2021 750 (RV) ± 3.6% 41% 49% 10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies December 18, 2021 1,411 (LV) – 34% 39% 27%
YouGov/Yahoo News Dec 9–13, 2021 1,558 (A) – 47% 41% 12%
Echelon Insights Dec 9–13, 2021 1,098 (RV) – 47% 44% 9%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies December 5, 2021 1,387 (LV) – 38% 42% 20%
Harvard/Harris Nov 30 – December 2, 2021 1,989 (RV) – 45% 48% 7%
Rasmussen Reports Nov 22–23, 2021 1,200 (LV) ± 3.0% 32% 45% 23%
Wall Street Journal Nov 16–22, 2021 1,500 (RV) – 46% 45% 10%
Echelon Insights[permanent dead link‍] Nov 12–18, 2021 1,013 (RV) – 45% 45% 10%
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 11–16, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 44% 49% 7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies November 15, 2021 1,500 (RV) – 35% 41% 24%
Marquette Law School Nov 1–10, 2021 1,004 (A) – 42% 34% 24%
YouGov/Yahoo News Nov 4–8, 2021 1,673 (A) – 43% 39% 18%
Suffolk University Nov 3–5, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 44% 16%
Emerson College Nov 3–4, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 45% 12%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies October 31, 2021 1,387 (LV) – 42% 42% 16%
Harvard/Harris Oct 26–28, 2021 1,578 (LV) – 45% 46% 9%
YouGov/Yahoo News Oct 19–21, 2021 1,704 (A) – 43% 40% 17%
Echelon Insights Oct 15–19, 2021 1,098 (RV) – 48% 42% 10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies October 17, 2021 1,366 (LV) – 42% 40% 18%
Selzer and Company/Grinnell College Oct 13–17, 2021 745 (LV) ± 3.6% 40% 40% 19%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Oct 4–6, 2021 1,345 (LV) – 43% 41% 16%
Echelon Insights Sep 17–23, 2021 1,005 (RV) – 50% 39% 11%
Rasmussen Reports Sep 21–22, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 41% 51% 8%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Sep 19–20, 2021 1,330 (LV) – 42% 40% 18%
McLaughlin & Associates Sep 9–14, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 47% 50% 3%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Sep 4–5, 2021 1,357 (LV) – 45% 42% 13%
Emerson College Aug 30 – September 1, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% 7%
Rasmussen Reports Aug 16–17, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 37% 43% 20%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 30 – August 2, 2021 1,552 (A) – 47% 37% 16%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac July 8, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 46% 43% 11%
YouGov/Yahoo News June 22–24, 2021 1,592 (A) – 47% 35% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 24–26, 2021 1,588 (A) – 46% 36% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 11–13, 2021 1,561 (A) – 48% 36% 16%
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,106 (A) – 45% 28% 27%
PMC/John Bolton Super Pac Apr 3–7, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 46% 42% 12%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang
Poll source Date Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Andrew
Yang
Forward 		Other/
Undecided
Echelon Insights Oct 15–19, 2021 1,098 (RV) – 44% 40% 5% 11%

Primary election polling

Nationwide polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Tucker
Carlson 		Ted
Cruz 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Josh
Hawley 		Larry
Hogan 		Mike
Pence 		Mike
Pompeo 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Tim
Scott 		Donald
Trump 		Donald
Trump Jr. 		Other Undecided
YouGov Nov 9–11, 2022 1486 (A) ± 2.7% – – 41% – – – – – – – – 39% – 8% 12%
Emerson College August 30 – September 1, 2021 395 (RV) ± 4.9% – 2% 10% 7% 1% – 6% – 3% – – 67% – 5%[c] 1%
McLaughlin & Associates July 29 – August 3, 2021 467 (LV) – – 3% 11% 4% – – 8% 1% 3% 3% 0% 54%[d] – 7%[e] 6%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 30 – August 2, 2021 518 (A) – 2% – 13% 4% 0% – 3% – – 1% 1% 58% – 1%[f] 17%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates July 6–8, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.5% – 2% 19% 3% 0% 1% 8% 0% 3% 1% 1% 47%[d] – 2%[g] 13%
– – 31% – – – – – – – – 58%[d] – – 11%
John Bolton Super PAC July 8, 2021 1,000 (LV) – – 5% 13% 5% 0% – 6% – – 3% 0% 46% – 22% –
Echelon Insights[1] June 18–22, 2021 386 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 59%[d] – 35% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 444 (LV) – – 4% 9% 3% – – 8% 1% 3% 1% 1% 55%[d] – 8%[h] 7%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 24–26, 2021 378 (A) – – – – – – – – – – – – 65% – 19%[i] 16%
Quinnipiac May 18–24, 2021 ~290 (A)[j] – – – – – – – – – – – – 66% – 30%[k] 4%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 444 (LV) – 1% 3% 8% 5% – – 10% 1% 2% 0% 1% 57%[d] – 7%[l] 7%
Echelon Insights[2] May 14–17, 2021 479 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 63%[d] – 31% 6%
Morning Consult/Politico May 14–17, 2021 782 (RV) ± 2% – 4% 8% 4% 0% 0% 13% 1% 4% 1% 2% 48% 7% 9%[m] –
YouGov/Yahoo News May 11–13, 2021 348 (A) – – – – – – – – – – – – 68% – 22%[n] 10%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[o] – –[d] – – – – – – – – – – 62% – 27%[p] 11%[q]
Echelon Insights[3] Apr 16–23, 2021 440 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 59%[d] – 35% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 8–13, 2021 441 (LV) – 1% 3% 7% 2% – – 10% 1% 3% 1% 1% 55%[d] – 8%[r] 9%
PEM Management Corporation Apr 3–7, 2021 494 (LV) – – 7% 9% 9% – – 6% – – 3% – 44% – 1%[s] –
Echelon Insights March 15–21, 2021 1,008 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 60%[d] – 30% 10%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill[4] Feb 20 – March 2, 2021 1,264 (LV) ± 2.7% – 3% 7% 6% 1% 1% 9% 1% 5% 2% 0% 51%[d] – 3%[t] 12%
– – – – – – – – – – – 57%[u] – 16%[v] 27%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 24–28, 2021 448 (LV) – 1% 5% 4% 3% – – 8% – 3% 1% – 54%[d] – 9%[w] 10%
Harvard-Harris Feb 23–25, 2021 546 (RV) – – 5% – 7% 2% – 18% – – – 2% 52%[d] – 13%[x] –
Echelon Insights Feb 12–18, 2021 430 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 55%[d] – 32% 14%
Morning Consult/Politico Feb 14–15, 2021 645 (RV) ± 4% – 4% – 6% 1% 1% 12% 2% 4% 2% 1% 54% 6% 10%[y] –
Echelon Insights Jan 20–26, 2021 – (RV)[z] – – – – – – – – – – – – 48%[d] – 40% 11%
Léger Jan 15–17, 2021 1,007 (A)[aa] ± 3.09% – 6% 2% 7% 1% 6% 13% 2% 19% 3% 3% 29%[d] 2% 6%[ab] –
Ipsos/Axios Jan 11–13, 2021 334 (A) ± 5.8% – – – – – – – – – – – 57% – 41% 1%[ac]
Morning Consult/Politico Jan 8–11, 2021 702 (RV) – – 7% – 6% 1% 0% 18% 1% 5% 2% 1% 40% 6% 15%[ad] –
McLaughlin & Associates Dec 9–13, 2020 442 (LV) – 3% 5% 1% 3% – – 11% 1% 4% 1% 1% 56% – 5%[ae] 10%
Fox News Dec 6–9, 2020 ~ 413 (RV) ± 4.5% – – – – – – – – – – – 71% – 21%[af] 8%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 442 (LV) ± 3.1% 1% 4% 2% 4% – – 9% 1% 4% 2% 1% 53%[d] – 6%[ag] 15%
Morning Consult/Politico Nov 21–23, 2020 765 (RV) ± 2% – 4% – 4% 1% 0% 12% – 4% 2% 1% 53% 8% 11%[ah] –
HarrisX/The Hill Nov 17–19, 2020 599 (RV) ± 2.26% – – – – – – – – – – – 75% – 25% –
Seven Letter Insight Nov 10–19, 2020 ~555 (V)[ai] ± 2.5% 2% 6% – 7% 1% – 19% – – 4% 2% 35% 11% 4%[aj] –
Léger Nov 13–15, 2020 304 (A)[ak] ± 3.09% 4% 7% – 4% – – 22% 2% 8% 5% – 45%[d] – 5%[al] –
YouGov/Washington Examiner October 30, 2020 – (RV)[am] – – – – – – – – – – – – 38% – 43%[an] –

Statewide polling

Florida primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis 		Marco
Rubio 		Rick
Scott 		Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates Feb 15–17, 2021 304 (LV) – 64% 12% 10% 14%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/News4JAX[5] July 16–18, 2019 280 (LV) – 37% 26% 18% 19%
Georgia primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Chris
Christie 		Ted
Cruz 		Nikki
Haley 		Mike
Pence 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)[ao] – – – – – – – 70% 18%[ap] 12%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 209 (LV) ± 7% 1%[d] 5% 3% – 2% 3% 73% 2% –
1%[aq] 15% 8% 36% 6% 3% – 7% 24%
Iowa caucuses
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ted
Cruz 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Kristi
Noem 		Mike
Pence 		Mike
Pompeo 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
Victory Insights Released March 14, 2021 – (LV)[ar] – 4%[d] 4% 6% 2% 8% 2% 61% 10%[as] 3%
16%[aq] 20% 10% 6% 19% 6% – 12%[at] 6%
Maine primary
In Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ted
Cruz 		Nikki
Haley 		Mike
Pence 		Marco
Rubio 		Ivanka
Trump 		Donald
Trump Jr. 		Other Undecided
January 3, 2023 Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
SurveyUSA / FairVote Jun 30 – July 6, 2020 604 (LV) ± 4.1% 12% 12% 30% 6% 7% 11% – 21%
Missouri primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Hawley 		Mike
Pence 		Ivanka
Trump 		Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Dec 2–3, 2020 840 (LV) ± 3.4% 29% 32% 13% 26%
New Hampshire primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Tucker
Carlson 		Tom
Cotton 		Ted
Cruz 		Nikki
Haley 		Mike
Pence 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Tim
Scott 		Donald
Trump 		Donald
Trump Jr. 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire Jan 21–25, 2021 804 (A) ±2.2% – – – – – – – – 47% – 45%[au] 8%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Praecones Analytica/NH Journal Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 624 (RV) ± 4% 1%[d] 2% 4% 7% 6% 7% 2% 2% 57% 3% – 10%
4%[aq] 6% 10% 12% 25% 8% 4% 3% – 14% – 14%
University of New Hampshire Nov 19–23, 2020 533 (RV) ± 2.2% – – – – – – – – 73% – 22%[av] 5%
North Carolina primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ted
Cruz 		Nikki
Haley 		Mike
Pence 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 221 (RV) ± 7% 3%[d] 6% – 3% 2% 76% 5% 6%
9%[aq] 9% 48% 9% 3% – 4% 18%

Statewide polling

Florida primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis 		Marco
Rubio 		Rick
Scott 		Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates Feb 15–17, 2021 304 (LV) – 64% 12% 10% 14%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/News4JAX[6] July 16–18, 2019 280 (LV) – 37% 26% 18% 19%
Georgia primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Chris
Christie 		Ted
Cruz 		Nikki
Haley 		Mike
Pence 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 209 (LV) ± 7% 1%[d] 5% 3% – 2% 3% 73% 2% –
1%[aq] 15% 8% 36% 6% 3% – 7% 24%
Maine primary
In Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ted
Cruz 		Nikki
Haley 		Mike
Pence 		Marco
Rubio 		Ivanka
Trump 		Donald
Trump Jr. 		Other Undecided
January 3, 2023 Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
SurveyUSA / FairVote Jun 30 – July 6, 2020 604 (LV) ± 4.1% 12% 12% 30% 6% 7% 11% – 21%
Missouri primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Hawley 		Mike
Pence 		Ivanka
Trump 		Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Dec 2–3, 2020 840 (LV) ± 3.4% 29% 32% 13% 26%
New Hampshire primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Tucker
Carlson 		Tom
Cotton 		Ted
Cruz 		Nikki
Haley 		Mike
Pence 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Tim
Scott 		Donald
Trump 		Donald
Trump Jr. 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire Jan 21–25, 2021 804 (A) ±2.2% – – – – – – – – 47% – 45%[aw] 8%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Praecones Analytica/NH Journal Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 624 (RV) ± 4% 1%[d] 2% 4% 7% 6% 7% 2% 2% 57% 3% – 10%
4%[aq] 6% 10% 12% 25% 8% 4% 3% – 14% – 14%
University of New Hampshire Nov 19–23, 2020 533 (RV) ± 2.2% – – – – – – – – 73% – 22%[ax] 5%
North Carolina primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ted
Cruz 		Nikki
Haley 		Mike
Pence 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 221 (RV) ± 7% 3%[d] 6% – 3% 2% 76% 5% 6%
9%[aq] 9% 48% 9% 3% – 4% 18%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 5%; Tom Cotton with 0%
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z Standard VI response
  5. ^ John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Candace Owens with 2%; Liz Cheney with 1%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 0%
  6. ^ Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
  7. ^ Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
  8. ^ Candace Owens with 4%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
  9. ^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 19%
  10. ^ 22% of a full sample of 1,316 adults
  11. ^ "Do not want Trump to run" as opposed to "want Trump to run" with 30%
  12. ^ Candace Owens with 3%; John Kasich, Liz Cheney, Rick Scott, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
  13. ^ Would not vote with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  14. ^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 22%
  15. ^ Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
  16. ^ "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Trump" with 24%; Would not vote with 3%
  17. ^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 8%; Undecided with 4%
  18. ^ John Kasich with 3%; Candace Owens with 2%; Tom Cotton, Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
  19. ^ Kristi Noem with 1%
  20. ^ Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
  21. ^ On whether voters thought they'd support a Trump primary campaign if he ran
  22. ^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 16%
  23. ^ Candace Owens with 3%; Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 2%; Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  24. ^ "Someone else" with 12%; Tom Cotton with 1%
  25. ^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  26. ^ GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
  27. ^ Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[104]
  28. ^ Ben Sasse with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%; Ivanka Trump with 1%
  29. ^ Listed as "Skipped"
  30. ^ Would not vote with 6%; "Someone else" with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
  31. ^ John Kasich and Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  32. ^ "Would not like to see Trump run for president in 2024" with 21%
  33. ^ John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  34. ^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker with 0%
  35. ^ 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
  36. ^ Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with 1%
  37. ^ Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
  38. ^ John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%
  39. ^ Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters
  40. ^ Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%
  41. ^ Likely Republican primary voter subsample of 1,093 likely general election voters
  42. ^ "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 14%; would not vote with 4%
  43. ^ a b c d e f g If Donald Trump did not run
  44. ^ Not yet released
  45. ^ Mitt Romney and "Someone else" with 5%
  46. ^ "Someone else" with 7%; Mitt Romney with 5%
  47. ^ 45% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
  48. ^ 22% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
  49. ^ 45% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
  50. ^ 22% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election

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