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2023 Chinese balloon incident

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2023 Chinese balloon incident
Part of China–United States, Canada–China relations
The balloon over Billings, Montana, U.S.[1][2][3]
DateJanuary 28 – February 4, 2023 (2023-01-28 – 2023-02-04)
DurationJanuary 26, 2023 – present
LocationAirspace over the United States, Canada, Latin America, and territorial waters
TypeDiplomatic incident
CauseHigh-altitude Chinese balloons entering foreign airspace
MotiveUnited States and Canada allege reconnaissance; China claims meteorology and force majeure due to westerlies
OutcomeBalloon downed by an AIM-9 Sidewinder fired by a U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor; debris recovered[4]

From January 28 to February 4, 2023, a large, white high-altitude balloon operated by China was observed in North American airspace, passing over Alaska, western Canada, and the contiguous United States.[5] The American and Canadian militaries stated that the balloon was for surveillance; the Chinese government stated it was a civilian meteorological research airship blown off course.[6] The balloon was shot down on February 4, 2023, by the U.S. Air Force over territorial waters off the coast of South Carolina on orders from U.S. President Joe Biden.[7][8]

The incident added strain in United States–China relations, causing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to postpone a diplomatic visit to Beijing, which would have been the first such visit since 2018.[6][9][10][11] It also further strained Canada–China relations; due to the airspace incursion, Canada summoned the Chinese ambassador.[12] On February 3, the U.S. Department of Defense said a second Chinese balloon was passing over Latin America, which China also subsequently said belonged to it.[13][14][15]

Debris were recovered and sent to the Federal Bureau of Investigation Laboratory in Quantico, Virginia for analysis.[4]

Background

History of spy balloons

Further information: History of military ballooning

The use of spy balloons as a military technology dates to the 19th and 20th centuries, during which various militaries employed them, including the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.[16] Despite being rendered mostly obsolete by the advent of maneuverable and stealthy surveillance satellites and drones, balloons have retained some advantages such as a lower cost of production and deployment.[16][17] The U.S. Department of Defense began investing in the military use of balloons in 2019 under its COLD STAR (Covert Long Dwell Stratospheric Architecture) program.[18][19][20]

Technology used by China

An analysis by Reuters of an article in a Chinese state-run defense technology journal published April 2022 showed increased interest military balloon technology, suggesting China should, "induce and mobilise the enemy's air defence system, providing the conditions for the implementation of electronic reconnaissance [and] assessment of air defence systems' early warning detection and operational response capabilities."[21] During the incident, a U.S. defense official stated that the balloon had "limited additive value from an intelligence collection perspective". Nonetheless, the Pentagon took steps to protect its assets from leaking sensitive information to the balloon.[22] U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the U.S. military was able to collect valuable intelligence on the balloon while it was transiting North America.[16][23]

Previous sightings

This was the fifth detected Chinese balloon over the continental United States since 2017.[24] Chinese balloons suspected of surveillance activity have also entered United States airspace over Florida, Guam, and Hawaii.[25][26][9] In those instances, China was able to recover the balloons. No prior incursion persisted as long as the 2023 incident, which overflew the North American continent from the Aleutian Islands to The Carolinas. Of the preceding incidents, one occurred earlier during Biden's presidency (2021–present)[9] and three occurred during Donald Trump's presidency (2017–2021), according to an unnamed senior U.S. defense official.[9][27] It was revealed by NORAD/USNORTHCOM that these prior instances were not detected at the time, instead being discovered after the fact by US intelligence.[28] Former president Trump and several former top national security officials in his administration said they were unaware of any balloon incursions during their tenure.[29] Biden national security advisor Jake Sullivan later said that improved airspace surveillance ordered by Biden after he took office had detected the previous incursions and "enhanced our capacity to be able to detect things that the Trump administration was unable to detect."[30]

In 2020, a similar balloon was sighted in Sendai, Japan, which at the time was not identified as being of Chinese origin.[31][32] In February 2022, several balloons were spotted off the coast of Taiwan, which Taiwan's Ministry of Defense noted were likely for meteorological observations for the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army and posed no immediate security threat.[33]

Incident

Structure

Comparison with the estimated size of the balloon

The balloon carried an underslung payload described as a "technology bay" estimated to be the size of "two or three school buses" and was powered by sixteen solar arrays mounted on the payload.[a] The balloon itself was about 90 feet (27 m) in diameter.[35] A U.S. official quoted by CBS News said the craft had a rudder for limited steering.[25] National Security Council spokesman Admiral John Kirby said the craft had a propeller and could be maneuvered.[36] A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said it had "limited self-steering capability."[37] USNORTHCOM and NORAD Commander General Glen VanHerck estimated the payload weighed over 2,000 pounds (910 kg).[38]

The U.S. Department of Defense said the balloon did not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground, and that shooting it down over water would be safer and increased the opportunity to study the wreckage for intelligence purposes.[39][40][8][41][30]

Experts noted the Chinese balloon was different than normal weather balloons.[42][35] Standard weather balloons have typically been around 20 feet (6 m) wide, less than a quarter of the Chinese balloon's diameter.[35] Although weather sensors have become more sophisticated over time, they have remained relatively unchanged since the 1970s or 1980s, and have been consistent globally.[35] When asked what intelligence the balloon could collect that a satellite could not, from its observed hovering over Malmstrom Air Force Base where U.S. nuclear missiles are housed, arms control expert Jeffrey Lewis said, "you could see if radio towers are transmitting, but ... you could take an RF detector and drive around Montana and get much closer to the silos."[43]

Detection

The balloon first came to the public's attention on February 1, 2023, when former Billings Gazette editor Chase Doak[44] spotted the object above Billings, Montana, after seeing reports that the airspace around Billings was closed. He had initially assumed it was a star or a UFO.[45] Doak contacted his friend and Billings Gazette photographer Larry Mayer,[46] and the two photographed the balloon using telephoto lenses. Mayer also sent the images to various government agencies.[46] After the photographs were published in the Billings Gazette and received widespread media coverage, the U.S. Department of Defense and the Canadian Department of National Defence announced on February 2 that NORAD was aware of a high-altitude surveillance balloon believed to belong to China and had been tracking it for "several" days.[47][48] The balloon was flying at an altitude of 60,000 feet (18,000 m) over Billings at the time.[39]

Experts cited by The Washington Post said the balloon appeared to share characteristics with other high-altitude balloons used by other nations for meteorology, telecommunications, and research.[49] One of them said that if the balloon was used for espionage, then it may have been carrying telecommunications equipment capable of relaying information back to other nations.[49] Experts interviewed by the BBC said it was unusual for weather balloons to last as long as the one involved in the incident and that the balloon "might have been more sophisticated than China claims."[50] A U.S. Air Force Air University study states surveillance balloons often present very small radar cross-sections, "on the order of hundredths of a square meter, about the same as a small bird," and essentially no infrared signature, which complicates the use of anti-aircraft weapons.[40][51]

Flight path

A map of the world, showing a snaking line from the middle of China, across the Pacific Ocean, through Alaska and Canada, and into the northwestern United States
Approximate route of the balloon[52]

According to the United States, the balloon entered its airspace above the Aleutian Islands on January 28, 2023, and entered Canadian airspace over Yukon and the Northwest Territories on January 30, 2023.[9] The balloon then crossed into the U.S. in northern Idaho on January 31, and Montana on February 1,[9] where it was spotted over Billings.[48][39] Montana is the location of multiple nuclear missile installations, including Malmstrom Air Force Base, one of three U.S. Air Force bases from which intercontinental ballistic missiles are operated, raising suspicions that the balloon had been launched to surveil said nuclear installations.[48] A meteorological researcher calculated a possible trajectory along this path using the HYSPLIT atmospheric model, consistent with data on prevailing westerlies from China to Montana.[52] The balloon was spotted above northwest Missouri, near Kansas City, on February 3.[39]

An unnamed U.S. defense official told The Washington Post that the balloon was not a derelict object as it generally followed jet stream patterns but loitered when it was near sensitive sites such as the Malmstrom Air Force Base.[53] The Post said that that observation undermined Chinese assertions that the balloon was a wayward device.[53] The U.S. ground-based intercontinental nuclear arsenal is composed of about 400 LGM-30 Minuteman III missiles deployed in missile silos around Malmstrom AFB, Montana; Minot AFB, North Dakota; and Francis E. Warren AFB, Wyoming.[54] Experts interviewed by TIME said that the balloon traveled at a much longer distance than what would be expected of a standard weather balloon and that Chinese officials should not have been surprised that the balloon would have eventually either crossed the U.S. or faced detection.[35]

The balloon was flying at an altitude of 60,000 feet (18,000 m). In comparison, the Concorde was the only commercial airliner to fly at 60,000 feet (18,000 m), business jets can reach 51,000 feet (16,000 m), current commercial airliners can reach 45,000 feet (14,000 m), and the SR-71 had reached 90,000 feet (27,000 m).[55] The U-2S high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft used to surveil the balloon is the only operational U.S. military plane with a comparable maximum service ceiling, being able to operate at altitudes exceeding 70,000 feet (21,000 m),[56] but does not carry weapons.

Monitoring and counterintelligence

A Boeing RC-135U Combat Sent reconnaissance aircraft, from Offutt Air Force Base, following the balloon before diverting to circle the Callaway Nuclear Generating Station

The balloon was monitored by crewed aircraft deployed by NORAD, including a Boeing E-3 Sentry Airborne Early Warning and Control System (AWACS), a Boeing RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft from Nellis Air Force Base,[57] and an F-22 Raptor from Langley Air Force Base.[58] The U.S. Department of Defense said that, during the balloon's overflight of the United States, it had blocked the balloon from gathering intelligence and was able to study the balloon and its equipment.[8][59] A U.S. government official said that at least two U-2S reconnaissance aircraft were used to gather data on the balloon while it was over the midwestern United States, though it is not clear at which points in the balloon's flight it was tracked by U-2S aircraft.[56] The War Zone commented that the U-2S's high flight ceiling exceeding 70,000 feet (21,000 m) allowed it to observe the balloon from within relatively close proximity (including from above), and its electronic warfare suite allowed the aircraft to jam or monitor radio emissions from the balloon, including data transmissions directed upwards towards Chinese communications satellites.[56]

VanHerck said that the U.S. Department of Defense peculiarly had to request permission to gather intelligence over its own territory:

I would point out, and I think it's important to talk about, is day-to-day we do not have the authority to collect intelligence within the United States of America ... In this case, specific authorities were granted to collect intelligence against the balloon specifically and we utilized specific capabilities to do that.[56]

Downing

On February 4, the balloon drifted to the Carolinas.[60] The Federal Aviation Administration closed airspace over the area in one of the largest temporary flight restrictions in U.S. history, "more than five times the restricted airspace surrounding Washington, D.C., and nearly double the area of the state of Massachusetts."[61] A ground stop was ordered on the coast at Myrtle Beach International Airport, Charleston International Airport, and Wilmington International Airport.[62][63][64] Military aircraft were reported to be over the Carolinas.[65] U.S. officials later stated that this was in preparation for the eventual downing of the balloon within American territorial waters over the Atlantic.[9]

External video
image icon High-definition video of the shootdown

According to the U.S. military, the balloon was successfully shot down at an altitude of 58,000 feet (18,000 m) by an AIM-9X Sidewinder[66] fired from a United States Air Force F-22 Raptor off the coast of Surfside Beach, South Carolina, at 2:39 p.m. local time.[67][68] The downing was the first recorded by an F-22 aircraft, and was speculated to be the highest-altitude air-to-air "kill" in history, as well as the first downing of an aircraft over U.S. territory since World War II.[69]

  • The balloon over Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, shortly before being downed
    The balloon over Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, shortly before being downed
  • F-22 tracking the balloon
    F-22 tracking the balloon
  • Video of the downing by an F-22

Debris recovery

Sailors assigned to Explosive Ordnance Disposal Group 2 recover a portion of the balloon from the Atlantic

The debris from the balloon were dispersed over an area of 2.25 square kilometers (0.87 sq mi)[70] where the ocean was about 47 feet (14 m) deep, and collection efforts were initiated for further inspection.[71][8] NORAD Commander General Glen VanHerck said the United States Navy was conducting recovery operations while the United States Coast Guard was securing the region where the debris fell.[72] Guided-missile destroyer USS Oscar Austin, guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea, and dock landing ship USS Carter Hall were tasked with retrieving the balloon wreckage, alongside Coast Guard cutters and helicopters, U.S. Navy divers, and FBI counterintelligence agents.[73][74]

General VanHerck stated that unmanned underwater vehicles controlled from rigid inflatable boats used side-scan sonar to locate the sunken debris. The unmanned vehicles analyzed the wreckage to identify potential threats to recovery divers, such as explosives or batteries with hazardous materials.[38] The sunken payload was estimated to weigh more than 2,000 pounds (910 kg).[38]

On February 6, some of the downed payload was sent to the FBI Laboratory in Quantico, Virginia, for analysis.[4] Possible balloon debris were spotted on the South Carolina coast, where police are asking residents to report other sightings.[75] NSC spokesman Admiral Kirby said there were no plans to return the remains to China.[4]

Second balloon over Latin America

On February 3, the U.S. Department of Defense stated that a second Chinese surveillance balloon was flying over Latin America.[14][15] The Costa Rican General Directorate of Civil Aviation confirmed the incursion by an object "not of Costa Rican origin" that locals had first seen on February 2.[76] The Colombian Air Force said that on the morning of February 3, it had detected an object "similar to a balloon" at a height of 55,000 feet (17,000 m) and traveling at a speed of 25 knots (46 kilometers per hour; 29 miles per hour) and that it had continued to track it until it left Colombian airspace. They said that through this observation "it was possible to determine that this element didn’t represent a threat to national security and defense, as well as air safety"[77][78] Unconfirmed sightings of the balloon were also reported from Venezuela.[79][80][81] On February 6, Mao Ning, the spokeswoman for the Chinese government, confirmed the balloon belongs to China, but said that it was used for "flight tests" and was blown off-course in much the same manner as the one spotted over North America.[82][13]

Response and reactions

United States

Federal government

External videos
U.S. Air Force Brigadier General Patrick Ryder during the press briefing
video icon Defense Department Briefing, February 3, 2023, C-SPAN[83]

American defense officials considered shooting the balloon down but initially decided not to due to the risk of debris injuring civilians on the ground.[57] A meeting was convened between Secretary of Defense Austin, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, NORTHCOM/NORAD Commander General VanHerck, and other military commanders.[47] Biden was advised by officials not to shoot it down because debris could hit people on the ground.[47]

Secretary of State Blinken postponed a scheduled diplomatic trip to China in response, which would have been the first such visit since 2018.[6][10][11][9] Pentagon officials stated that they did not want to announce the balloon's incursion to protect Blinken's trip, but press and social media interest prevented them from publicly ignoring it.[44]

In response to questions regarding the situation, on February 4, Biden said, "We're going to take care of it."[84] Later that day, U.S. officials disclosed that three days earlier he had granted permission to down the balloon.[9] At 2:39 pm local time, the balloon was downed by two F-22 fighter jets using an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile,[58][85] with the United States announcing that it would recover and analyze the remnants that splashed down in the Atlantic.[9]

Pentagon officials stated that there was no earlier opportunity to shoot down over water, rebutting Trump and other Republicans who criticized the Biden administration for not shooting down the balloon earlier.[8][86] Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer added, "shooting down the balloon over water wasn't just the safest option, but it was the one that maximized our intelligence payload."[87]

The Washington Post reported that on February 7, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman briefed 150 diplomats from about 40 embassies on China's balloon surveillance program, alleged by U.S. officials to have been run for several years by the People's Liberation Army from Hainan Province on China's south coast.[88] Officials are separately reaching out to countries where they say there have been dozens of such overflights since 2018, including Japan, India, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines in addition to North and South America.[88] A PLA signals intelligence facility at Lingshui Air Base in Hainan is involved with several unmanned aerial vehicle and early warning aircraft programs, and reportedly employs more than 1,000 intelligence analysts to monitor downlinks from commercial communications satellites.[89]

The U.S. House Armed Services Committee held a February 7 hearing on wide-ranging Chinese military and intelligence threats including the balloon incursions.[90] Republican Committee chairman Mike Rogers characterized the balloon as an intentionally calculated show of force.[91] An administration official told The Washington Post there was no sense that the balloon was a deliberate provocation, as it was part of an ongoing global program.[88]

Media analysis

James Andrew Lewis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that balloons were "not an ideal platform for spying," that China "had not used balloons for spying before" and that the most likely explanation for the incident was "that this is an errant weather balloon that went astray."[92] Tom Karako, also from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that compared to alternative intelligence gathering instruments like satellites, one benefit of using balloons was that they could "hover closer to the ground and may be able to intercept communication or electronic signals that orbiting systems can’t."[22] This view was echoed by Bryan Clark from the Hudson Institute who said balloons also offered "more persistent, less predictable coverage over an area of interest."[22] On shooting of the balloon, Christopher Twomey, a security scholar, said that any Chinese response would be restrained and that China would want to "sweep this under the rug" and emphasize senior-level visits within months.[93]

The Washington Post columnist Ishaan Tharoor contextualized the incident as part of Cold War II.[94] Political commentator Charlie Pierce remarked on the irony of outrage over the incursion in the era of pervasive high-resolution reconnaissance satellite imagery.[95]

Satirical portrayals

The incident was satirized on the cold open of the show Saturday Night Live the evening after it was shot down. In the sketch, performer Bowen Yang portrayed an anthropomorphized depiction of the downed balloon being interviewed by MSNBC journalist Katy Tur, herself played by Chloe Fineman. Some sources paid particular attention to Yang's line "Congrats! You shot a balloon!", with USA Today using it in the headline of its coverage.[96][97][98][99]

The balloon was the subject of many other jokes on television, in the press, by celebrities, and on social media.[100][101][102][103]

Canada

Canadian officials and Global Affairs Canada summoned the Chinese Ambassador to Canada, Cong Peiwu, to Ottawa while the Department of National Defence announced it was monitoring the situation alongside the United States through NORAD.[12][104] A statement from the Canadian Armed Forces said there was no threat to Canadians, and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly would remain in contact with Blinken.[105]

China

On February 3, spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mao Ning said: "It is a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes. Affected by the Westerlies and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course."[11] She said China regretted the unintentional incident, citing force majeure.[106]

The state-controlled China Daily newspaper also denied Chinese involvement on February 3, saying: "To spy on the U.S. with a balloon, one must both fall far behind to use a 1940s technology and be advanced enough to control its flight across the ocean. Those fabricating the lie are only exposing their ignorance."[57] On February 5, China Daily published an article calling the shoot down of the "civilian airship" a "blatant provocation" ahead of Blinken's visit to Beijing, the article further claimed that "the U.S. has many a time encroached into Chinese sea and air space on purpose in the name of freedom of navigation and overflight."[107]

Following the downing, on February 5, the Chinese government stated that it would protect the legitimate interests of the relevant enterprises and reserved the right to take further actions, whilst criticizing the United States for "an obvious overreaction and a serious violation of international practice".[9]

Zhuang Guotai, the head of the China Meteorological Administration was removed from his position on February 5. Zhuang had been promoted to a position as chairman of the Gansu Political Consultative Conference on January 18,[108] but Western media speculated that the dismissal may have been related to the balloon incident given its timing.[109]

Vice Foreign Minister Xi Feng said he had filed a formal complaint with the U.S. Embassy regarding the "U.S. attack on a Chinese civilian unmanned airship by military force." He said that the airship was about to leave US airspace and described the use of military force as an overreaction.[110]

Other countries

Amidst the ongoing Australia–China trade war, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong said she believes the United States has "managed this [incident] as carefully as possible".[111][112][113]

Venezuela echoed Chinese comments, saying the United States shot down an unmanned civilian aircraft which posed no threat.[77]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Sources citing the defense official who gave the estimate did not identify what size of a bus was referenced. Lengths of U.S. school buses vary but are limited to 45 feet (14 m) per specifications defined by the National Congress on School Transportation.[34]

References

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