Talk:Joe Biden 2024 presidential campaign

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I have moved Joe Biden 2024 presidential campaign to mainspace

Biden and his proxies have repeatedly said that he is running, which I think is enough to have a live article on the campaign. Basically, every appearance, trip, or event by a sitting president who intends to seek reelection has a dimension of being towards winning that reelection. Even if Biden were to decide not to run at this point, that would be more like a declared candidate dropping out (which we cover) than a possible candidate never declaring. BD2412 T 06:31, 21 July 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I disagree on the basis that Biden and his proxies have repeatedly stated that he is going to run, which is very different from actually running. Clearly there is speculation about his campaign, but to claim that it is current and ongoing I think is not supported by the consensus of reliable sources. Przemysl15 (talk) 06:15, 22 July 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I put this in the category of Star Trek: Planet of the Titans—an unproduced film about which so much was reported that it is still notable despite never passing the writing stage. Biden's unequivocally stated re-election aspirations have had an effect on the political field equivalent to a declaration of candidacy, and this has been the subject of coverage in reliable sources. Also, I think it is hard to say that there really is not a current and ongoing campaign. Once the sitting president says that he "is going to run", what can he do in office that would not be seen as promoting his re-election? BD2412 T 06:46, 22 July 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I am shocked and surprised that such an experienced Wikipedian doesn't know better and thinks he can get away with this. I put your "Planet of the Titans" argument in the category of WP:OTHERSTUFFEXISTS. As far as what a sitting president can do that is not seen as promoting re-election, how about Lyndon Johnson's statement on May 31, 1968? Would you have such a passionate view about a president you didn't like?

As Przemysl15 says, saying he "is going to run" is not saying he will run. And I agree there is no perceivable consensus of reliable sources; Biden's public approval, mental faculties, and chances of reelection are seen as controversial and rated differently by different sources; this is a matter of opinion. You can't just dismiss sources you don't like

Here are some reminders of the pertinent "crystal ball" policy:

Individual scheduled or expected future events should be included only if the event is notable and almost certain to take place. Dates are not definite until the event actually takes place, as even otherwise-notable events can be cancelled or postponed at the last minute by a major incident. (For example, it has just been disclosed that Biden has contracted Covid for the second time.) If preparation for the event is not already in progress, speculation about it must be well documented.
Articles that present original research in the form of extrapolation, speculation, and "future history" are inappropriate. Although scientific and cultural norms continually evolve, we must wait for this evolution to happen, rather than try to predict it.
Wikipedia is not a collection of product announcements and rumors. Although Wikipedia includes up-to-date knowledge about newly revealed products, short articles that consist of only product announcement information and rumors are not appropriate. Until such time that more encyclopedic knowledge about the product can be verified, product announcements should be merged to a larger topic (such as an article about the creator(s), a series of products, or a previous product) if applicable.

JustinTime55 (talk) 13:11, 22 July 2022 (UTC)[reply]

It's a bit fine of a distinction to say that saying he "is going to run" is not saying he will run; they are literary synonyms. The question Would you have such a passionate view about a president you didn't like? appears to be a misfired exercise in mind-reading. As it happens, I have also created Draft:Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign, and have said that I think that it too should be moved to mainspace on the strength of reporting that Trump has made the decision, and is only waiting when to announce. In both cases, the actions of the putative candidate go far beyond the usual will-they-or-won't-they coy flirting of potential candidates, and has entered the territory of being reported on by reliable sources for the effect that each one is having. BD2412 T 16:33, 22 July 2022 (UTC)[reply]

I think it's just a bit too early in the 2024 election season to keep us out of crystal-ball territory to speculate about Biden's and Trump's candidacies. We just have to wait awhile. JustinTime55 (talk) 17:10, 22 July 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Perhaps I have been over-eager to publish these. I'll revert to draft for now. BD2412 T 17:39, 22 July 2022 (UTC)[reply]