2024 United States Senate election in Texas
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz is running for re-election to a third term in office.[1]
Background
Texas is considered to be a moderately red state at the federal level, especially since Donald Trump only carried Texas by about six percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. However, Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the Texas Legislature, and a majority in its U.S. House congressional delegation.[2][3]
Democrats seem to have been increasingly doing better in Texas elections, having only lost the most recent U.S. Senate races in 2018 and 2020 by single-digit margins. Cruz was first elected in 2012, defeating Paul Sadler by 15 points, but he was reelected in 2018 by only three points, narrowly defeating Beto O'Rourke.[4][5][6]
This race is considered to favor Cruz, but some consider the race to have the potential to become competitive.[7]
Republican primary
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Candidates
Declared
- Ted Cruz, incumbent U.S. Senator (2013–present)[8]
- Josiah Ingalls, farmer[9]
- Dan McQueen, former mayor of Corpus Christi, nominee for Texas's 35th congressional district in 2022, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[10]
Declined
- Dan Crenshaw, U.S. Representative for Texas's 2nd congressional district (2019–present)[11]
Endorsements
Ted Cruz (R)
- Organizations
Democratic primary
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Candidates
Declared
- Colin Allred, U.S. Representative for Texas's 32nd congressional district (2019–present)[13]
- Tracy Andrus, criminologist and nonprofit founder[14]
- Aaron Arguijo, coffee shop owner and U.S. Navy veteran[9]
- Victor Dunn, workers compensation consultant and candidate for Texas's 1st congressional district in 2022[15]
- Roland Gutierrez, state senator from the 19th district (2021–present)[16]
- Steven Keough, law professor and retired U.S. Navy captain[17]
- John Love III, financial advisor, former Midland mayor pro tempore, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[18]
- Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, tech entrepreneur[9]
- Thierry Tchenko, home repair nonprofit executive and former associate director of the District of Columbia Office of Policy[15]
Filed paperwork
Publicly expressed interest
- James Talarico, state representative from the 50th district (2019–present)[21]
Potential
- Greg Casar, U.S. Representative for Texas's 35th congressional district (2023–present)[22]
- Joaquin Castro, U.S. Representative for Texas's 20th congressional district (2013–present)[23][24]
- Jasmine Crockett, U.S. Representative for Texas's 30th congressional district (2023–present)[22]
- Wendy Davis, former state senator from the 10th district (2009–2015), nominee for Governor of Texas in 2014, and nominee for Texas's 21st congressional district in 2020[23]
- Veronica Escobar, U.S. Representative for Texas's 16th congressional district (2019–present)[22]
- Vicente Gonzalez, U.S. Representative for Texas's 34th congressional district (2023–present)[22]
- Tory Gavito, political strategy firm founder[22]
- MJ Hegar, business consultant, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020, and nominee for Texas's 31st congressional district in 2018[23]
- Lina Hidalgo, Harris County Judge (2019–present)[22]
- Nathan Johnson, state senator from the 16th district (2019–present)[22]
- Beto O'Rourke, former U.S. Representative for Texas's 16th congressional district (2013–2019), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018, nominee for Governor of Texas in 2022, and candidate for President of the United States in 2020[25]
- Carl Sherman, state representative[26]
- Michael Sorrell, president of Paul Quinn College (2007–present)[22]
- Michelle Tremillo, political organizing executive[22]
- Sylvester Turner, mayor of Houston (2016–present) and former state representative from the 139th district (1989–2016)[23][24]
Withdrew
- Zachariah Manning, businessman[10] (running for U.S. House)[27]
Declined
- Julián Castro, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014–2017), former mayor of San Antonio (2009–2014), and candidate for President of the United States in 2020[24][28]
- Scott Kelly, retired NASA astronaut and brother of Arizona Senator Mark Kelly[24][29]
Endorsements
Colin Allred
- U.S. Senators
- Tina Smith, U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2018–present)[29]
- U.S. Representatives
- Veronica Escobar, U.S. Representative from Texas's 16th congressional district (2019–present)[29]
- Lizzie Fletcher, U.S. Representative from Texas's 7th congressional district (2019–present)[30]
- Seth Moulton, U.S. Representative from Massachusetts's 6th congressional district (2015–present)[31]
- Marc Veasey, U.S. Representative from Texas's 33rd congressional district (2013–present)[29]
- Organizations
Roland Gutierrez
- U.S. Representatives
- Filemon Vela Jr., former U.S. Representative from Texas's 34th congressional district (2013–2022)[29]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Collin Allred |
Roland Gutierrez |
John Love |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 33% | 22% | 4% | 41% |
Green primary
Candidates
Filed paperwork
- Mason Cysewski[34]
Independents
Potential
- Ron Nirenberg, mayor of San Antonio (2017–present)[22]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[35] | Likely R | May 3, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[36] | Battleground | May 12, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] | Likely R | January 24, 2023 |
Polling
- Ted Cruz vs. Colin Allred
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ted Cruz (R) |
Colin Allred (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Texas at Tyler | May 10–21, 2023 | 1,413 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 37% | 8%[b] | 14% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 40% | 4%[c] | 9% |
Notes
References
- ^ Linton, Caroline (February 14, 2023). "Ted Cruz recommits to 2024 Senate run". CBS News. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
- ^ "Texas President Results". CNN. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- ^ Hardy, Michael (March 9, 2023). "How the Texas GOP Became the Party of Big Government". Texas Monthly. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- ^ "Texas". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- ^ "Texas Senate Election Results 2018". POLITICO. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- ^ Goodman, J. David (November 9, 2022). "Texas Democrats Look to a Future Beyond Beto". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- ^ Choi, Matthew (March 30, 2023). "Why Ted Cruz's next reelection path looks smoother with Beto O'Rourke behind him". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
- ^ Chan, Sewell (November 19, 2022). "U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz confirms he will seek a third term in 2024". The Texas Tribune.
- ^ a b c "These Four Democrats Want to Unseat Ted Cruz". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. March 31, 2023. Archived from the original on March 31, 2023.
- ^ a b Frisk, Garrett (May 3, 2023). "He's In: Democrat Colin Allred Announces Campaign Against Ted Cruz". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
- ^ Neukam, Stephen (September 23, 2022). "Republican Texas Congressman Dan Crenshaw takes aim at his own party's "woke right" for stoking division". The Texas Tribune.
- ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- ^ Jeffers Jr., Gromer (May 3, 2023). "Rep. Colin Allred launches Senate bid to oust Ted Cruz". The Dallas Morning News. Retrieved May 3, 2023.
- ^ Swanson, Christa (March 22, 2023). "Tracy Andrus announces run for U.S. Senate". KTAL-TV.
- ^ a b Frisk, Garrett (July 6, 2023). "More Democrats Announce for 2024 Texas Senate Race". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 6, 2023.
- ^ Svitek, Patrick (July 10, 2023). "Texas Sen. Roland Gutierrez enters Democratic primary targeting U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved July 10, 2023.
- ^ Powell, Adam (July 7, 2023). "Democrat Steven Keough: Road to US Senate in Texas runs through El Paso". El Paso Times. Retrieved July 6, 2023.
- ^ Randle, Caitlin (June 4, 2021). "Former Midland councilman announces U.S. Senate run in 2024". Midland Reporter-Telegram. Retrieved November 30, 2022.
- ^ "Teresa Naranjo FEC Statement of Candidacy". Federal Election Commission. June 30, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
- ^ "Sherri Lynn Taylor" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. October 31, 2022. Retrieved November 16, 2022.
- ^ Wren, Adam (June 16, 2023). "He's Deeply Religious and a Democrat. He Might Be the Next Big Thing in Texas Politics". Politico. Retrieved June 16, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Bowen, Joe (February 22, 2023). "Who Can Beat Ted Cruz?". Texas Signal.
- ^ a b c d DuPree, Will (March 17, 2023). "Who will jump into Texas Senate race next year against Ted Cruz?". KXAN.
- ^ a b c d Covey, Erin (March 22, 2023). "Texas Senate: Always on Democrats' Mind". Inside Elections.
- ^ Levine, Marianne (February 2, 2023). "Cruz control: Texas Republican keeps his distance from 2024 White House hunt". POLITICO.
- ^ Singer, Jeff (June 27, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digst: 6/27". Daily Kos. Retrieved June 27, 2023.
- ^ "Texas House Candidate Roundup: May 30, 2023".
- ^ "Dallas Democrat Colin Allred announces 2024 challenge to Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz".
Julián Castro, the former U.S. housing secretary and San Antonio mayor, does not plan to run, according to a spokesperson.
- ^ a b c d e Jeffers Jr., Gromer (July 6, 2023). "Ted Cruz, Colin Allred prepare for Senate showdown as others plan to join the race". The Dallas Morning News. Retrieved July 6, 2023.
- ^ Svitek, Patrick; Choi, Matthew (May 3, 2023). "Dallas Democrat Colin Allred announces 2024 challenge to Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved May 3, 2023.
- ^ "Moulton backs Allred and promotes MA Convention". May 18, 2023.
- ^ Congressional Black Caucus PAC (@cbcpac) (May 16, 2023). "The #CBCPAC is proud to endorse Rep. Colin Allred's campaign for U.S. Senate in Texas! #cbcpacendorsed". Twitter. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
- ^ a b "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Congressman Colin Allred for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". June 26, 2023. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
- ^ "Mason Cysewski FEC statement of candidacy" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. December 15, 2022.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 3, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites