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2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election

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2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election
← 2019 20 July 2023 (2023-07-20) 2024 →
TurnoutTBA
 
Candidate Steve Tuckwell Danny Beales Blaise Baquiche
Party Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is scheduled for 20 July 2023, following the resignation of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson as its member of Parliament on 12 June.

Background

Uxbridge and South Ruislip is a seat in West London, part of the suburban sprawl of Greater London.[1] Suburbs in the constituency include Uxbridge, South Ruislip, Eastcote, Hillingdon and Yiewsley.

Johnson was first elected as an MP in 2001 for the seat of Henley. After leaving Parliament to focus on being Mayor of London, an office to which he was elected in 2008, he was elected as the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip in 2015. In 2019, he became leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister when he won the leadership election triggered by the resignation of Theresa May. However, he stood down as Prime Minister and party leader in 2022.

Johnson announced his pending resignation from Parliament in response to an investigation by the Commons Privileges Committee that was launched into whether he had knowingly misled Parliament in comments about Partygate. He was highly critical of the report, which recommended a suspension from Parliament that would have been long enough to trigger a recall petition that, if successful, would have forced a by-election.[2]

His resignation became effective on 12 June. The writs for the by-election were moved, in Parliament, by Chief Whip Simon Hart on 14 June. The by-election must take place between 21 and 27 working days from the issuing of the writs, ergo between 13 and 21 July.[3] Hillingdon Council later confirmed that the by-election would be taking place on 20 July.[4]

Campaign

Labour began campaigning the day after Johnson's resignation was announced, with candidate Danny Beales joined by Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Jonathan Ashworth and Labour's campaign co-ordinator Shabana Mahmood,[5] speaking to press with assembled supporters before canvassing.[6] On 13 June, Labour Party National Campaign Coordinator Shabana Mahmood ruled out a Lib–Lab pact.[7] Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey had done the same on 10 June.[8]

At a hustings on 4 July, Beales said that it was "not the right time" to expand London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) into Hillingdon.[9]

Polling

One poll of the constituency was conducted in the days shortly before Boris Johnson's resignation by Lord Ashcroft Polls. The poll has been criticised by a journalist in The New Statesman for sampling issues, and allegedly under-representing the young.[10] National polls suggest Labour could win the seat, but it would be a close race against the Conservatives.[11] A poll by JL Partners after Johnson's resignation showed Labour in the lead.[12]

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con Lab Lib Dems Green Reform Reclaim Others Lead
26 Jun – 4 Jul 2023 JL Partners 38 Degrees 500 33% 41% 6% 4% – 5% 10% 8
9 Jun 2023 Boris Johnson resigns as an MP triggering a by-election
18 May – 2 Jun 2023 Lord Ashcroft Polls N/A 936 50%[a] 33% 6% 5% 3% – 4% 17
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 52.6% 37.6% 6.3% 2.2% – – 1.3% 15.0

Candidates

Seventeen candidates are standing in this by-election. The full list was announced on 23 June 2023.

2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election[13]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Independent Kingsley Hamilton Anti-Ulez New
Liberal Democrats Blaise Baquiche
Labour Danny Beales
Independent Cameron Bell New
Count Binface Count Binface
Let London Live Piers Corbyn New
Reclaim Laurence Fox New
SDP Steve Gardner New
Climate Ed Gemmell New
Green Sarah Green
Rejoin EU Richard Hewison New
Monster Raving Loony Howling Laud Hope
UKIP Rebecca Jane
Independent 77 Joseph[b] New
CPA Enomfon Ntefon New
Independent No-Ulez Leo Phaure[c] New
Conservative Steve Tuckwell

Previous result

General election 2019: Uxbridge and South Ruislip[17][18]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Boris Johnson 25,351 52.6 Increase1.8
Labour Ali Milani 18,141 37.6 Decrease2.4
Liberal Democrats Joanne Humphreys 3,026 6.3 Increase2.4
Green Mark Keir 1,090 2.2 Increase0.3
UKIP Geoffrey Courtenay 283 0.6 Decrease2.8
Monster Raving Loony Lord Buckethead 125 0.3 New
Independent Count Binface 69 0.1 New
Independent Alfie Utting 44 0.1 New
[d] Yace "Interplanetary Time Lord" Yogenstein 23 0.0 New
Independent Norma Burke 22 0.0 New
[d] Bobby Smith 8 0.0 New
[d] William Tobin[19] 5 0.0 New
Majority 7,210 15.0 Increase4.2
Turnout 48,187 68.5 Increase1.7
Registered electors 70,369
Conservative hold Swing Increase2.1

Notes

  1. ^ Boris Johnson as the Conservative candidate
  2. ^ Otherwise known as Thomas Faithful Darwood, his ballot name alludes to Pharaoh's dream interpreted by Joseph in the Book of Genesis.[14]
  3. ^ Names "Anti-Ulez"[15] and "No-Ulez"[16] indicate opposition to London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ).
  4. ^ a b c This independent candidate left the optional Description field blank on the "Statement of Persons Nominated" (PDF). London Borough of Hillingdon. Archived from the original (PDF) on 15 November 2019.

References

  1. ^ "BBC NEWS - VOTE 2001 - RESULTS & CONSTITUENCIES - Uxbridge". news.bbc.co.uk. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
  2. ^ "Boris Johnson resigns: Ex-PM quits Parliament over Partygate report". BBC News. 9 June 2023. Retrieved 9 June 2023.
  3. ^ Rufo, Yasmin (14 June 2023). "Boris Johnson: By-election confirmed for former constituency". BBC News. Retrieved 14 June 2023.
  4. ^ Salisbury, Josh (15 June 2023). "By-election date confirmed for Boris Johnson's London constituency". Evening Standard. Retrieved 15 June 2023.
  5. ^ Patrick, Holly (10 June 2023). "Labour candidate begins campaign for Boris Johnson's seat after ex-PM resigns as MP". The Independent. Retrieved 14 June 2023.
  6. ^ Topping, Alexandra (12 June 2023). "Labour's candidate in Uxbridge 'not taking anything for granted'". The Guardian. Retrieved 14 June 2023.
  7. ^ Gye, Chloe Chaplain, Hugo (13 June 2023). "Labour rules out Lib Dem pact and aims to win three by-elections - including Dorries's old seat". The Independent. Retrieved 15 June 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  8. ^ Adu, Aletha (10 June 2023). "Lib Dems rule out tactical voting pact with Labour in byelections". The Guardian. Retrieved 15 June 2023.
  9. ^ Rogers, Alexandra (4 July 2023). "Labour split as Uxbridge by-election candidate speaks out against London mayor's ULEZ expansion". Sky News. Retrieved 5 July 2023.
  10. ^ Walker, Ben (8 June 2023). "Will Boris Johnson really win in Uxbridge?". State of the Nation. Retrieved 14 June 2023.
  11. ^ Topping, Alexandra (12 June 2023). "Labour's candidate in Uxbridge 'not taking anything for granted'". The Guardian. Retrieved 25 June 2023.
  12. ^ Cecil, Nicholas (7 July 2023). "Labour ahead in Uxbridge and Selby, polls find in by-elections double blow for Sunak". Evening Standard. Retrieved 7 July 2023.
  13. ^ Rufo, Yasmin (23 June 2023). "Uxbridge by-election full candidate list revealed". BBC News. Retrieved 23 June 2023.
  14. ^ "Joseph77". Joseph77. Retrieved 15 July 2023.
  15. ^ "Candidate Kingsley Hamilton". Getty Images. Retrieved 15 July 2023.
  16. ^ "Candidate Leo Phaure". Getty Images. Retrieved 15 July 2023.
  17. ^ "Uxbridge & Ruislip South parliamentary constituency". BBC News.
  18. ^ "Commons Briefing Paper 8749. General Election 2019: results and analysis" (PDF). London: House of Commons Library. 28 January 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on 18 November 2021. Retrieved 9 June 2023.
  19. ^ "I'm Standing!" (PDF). April 2020. Retrieved 9 June 2023.
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