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2023 Manitoba general election

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2023 Manitoba general election
← 2019 October 3, 2023 2027 →
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Heather Stefanson Consulate Winnipeg Independence Day Celebration 2022 (cropped).jpg
Leader Heather Stefanson Wab Kinew
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since October 30, 2021 September 16, 2017
Leader's seat Tuxedo Fort Rouge
Last election 36 seats, 47.07% 18 seats, 31.38%
Current seats 35 18
Seats needed Steady Increase11
 
Dougald_Lamont,_Manitoba_Liberal_Leader.jpg
Leader Dougald Lamont Janine Gibson
Party Liberal Green
Leader since October 21, 2017 March 26, 2023
Leader's seat St. Boniface Running in Wolseley[1]
Last election 3 seats, 14.48% 0 seats, 6.24%
Current seats 3 0
Seats needed Increase26 Increase29
Incumbent Premier

Heather Stefanson
Progressive Conservative



The 2023 Manitoba general election is scheduled to occur on October 3, 2023, to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba will attempt to win a third term in government, having previously won the 2016 and 2019 elections.

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[2] As the previous election was held in 2019, the latest possible date for the election was October 3, 2023, which was the official election date.[3]

On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he would not seek re-election and resigned shortly after. Heather Stefanson was chosen by Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba members to succeed Pallister's successor, Premier Kelvin Goertzen, who served as interim leader of the party.[4][5]

Stefanson led the PCs into the election heavily disliked by voters. She primarily campaigned on reducing the cost of living for Manitobans.[6] Kinew led the NDP into the election.[7] The NDP campaign has focused on healthcare reform.[8] In addition, Lamont led the Liberals and Gibson led the Green party, having been elected leader in March. During the previous legislature, the opposition NDP had gained a polling lead over the PCs. However, the lead had tightened during the campaign period.

Legislature summary

Elections to the 43rd Manitoba Legislature
Party[9] Leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Current Next +/- Votes % +/-
Progressive Conservative Heather Stefanson 57 36 35
New Democratic Wab Kinew 57 18 18
Liberal Dougald Lamont 49 3 3
Green Janine Gibson 13 – – – –
  Keystone Kevin Friesen 5 – – – –
Communist Andrew Taylor 5 – – – –
  Independents 3 – – – –
  Vacant 1 –
Valid votes
Blank and invalid votes
Total 189 57 57 –
Registered voters/turnout

Incumbents not running for reelection

Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee New MLA
Agassiz   Eileen Clarke[10]
 Jodie Byram
Brandon West   Reg Helwer[11] Wayne Balcaen
Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard[12] Paramjit Shahi
Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox[13] Alana Vannahme
Lakeside   Ralph Eichler[14] Trevor King
La Verendrye   Dennis Smook[15] Konrad Narth
McPhillips   Shannon Martin[16] Sheilah Restall
Midland   Blaine Pedersen[17]
 Lauren Stone
Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart[18] Jeff Bereza
Roblin   Myrna Driedger[19] Kathleen Cook
Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen[20] Grant Jackson
Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere[21] Richard Perchotte

Campaign

The economy and healthcare were major issues in the election campaign.[22] The PCs have promoted the film industry in the province and in 2022 helped WestJet launch direct flights from Los Angeles to Winnipeg.[23] The New Democrats focused on healthcare with a promise to improve cardiac services.[24] They also pledged to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes.[25] The Liberals campaigned on creating more benefits for seniors including establishing a minimum income for people over 60.[26] They also promised new debt relief system if elected.[27] The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce encouraged voters to prioritise the economy when voting.[28]

Other campaign issues included; crime[29], agriculture[30] and affordable housing.[31] First Nations issues were reportedly side-lined during the campaign.[32]

In recent history Manitoba has elected majority governments so the media coverage was focused on the PCs and the NDP.[33] In the final days of the campaign the Manitoba government reported a $270M surplus in the provincial budget.[34]

Candidates

See also: List of candidates of the 2023 Manitoba general election

The PCs and New Democrats ran candidates in all 57 ridings, while the Liberals ran candidates in 49 and the Greens in 13, respectively.[35][36][37]

Marginal seats

Seats in the 2019 general election which were won by under 10%

Seat 2019 held Margin 2023 Winner
McPhillips   PC 1.00%
Transcona   NDP 1.29%
Southdale   PC 4.56%
Rossmere   PC 8.06%
Dauphin   PC 8.13%
Assiniboia   PC 8.79%
Riel   PC 9.36%
St. Vital   NDP 9.58%
The Maples   NDP 9.75%
Wolseley   NDP 9.98%


Opinion polls

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.

Template:Import-blanktable

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
Polling firm Dates conducted Source PC NDP Liberal Green Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Forum Research Oct 2, 2023 [p 1] 41.3% 44.7% 12.3% 0.9% 0.8% 3.3% 910 IVR 3.4%
Research Co. Sep 30–Oct 2, 2023 [p 2] 39% 48% 10% 2% 1% 4% 600 Online 9%
Mainstreet Research Sep 28–Oct 1, 2023 [p 3] 41% 47% 10% 1% 1% 3.7% 698 Smart IVR 6%
Sovereign North Strategies Sep 17–19, 2023 [p 4] 42.5% 39.4% 15.9% 2.2% N/A 3.9% 852 Telephone 3.1%
Angus Reid Sep 13–19, 2023 [p 5] 41% 47% 9% 2% 1% 4% 990 Online 6%
Probe Research Sep 7–18, 2023 [p 6] 38% 49% 9% 2% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Online 11%
Research Co. Sep 15–17, 2023 [p 7] 39% 41% 14% 3% 2% 4% 600 Online 2%
Counsel Public Affairs Sep 11–16, 2023 [p 8] 39% 44% 13% 2% 2% 4% 505 Online 5%
Mainstreet Research Aug 28 – Sep 2, 2023 [p 9] 43% 42% 9% 3% 3% 4% 601 Smart IVR 1%
Mainstreet Research Jul 26–28, 2023 [p 10] 42% 38% 12% 3% 4% 4% 597 Smart IVR 4%
Probe Research May 31 – Jun 13, 2023 [p 11] 41% 41% 10% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Online Tie
Angus Reid May 30 – Jun 3, 2023 [p 12] 39% 44% 10% 4% 4% 4% 515 Online 5%
March 26, 2023 Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba
Probe Research Mar 8–20, 2023 [p 13] 38% 44% 9% 4% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Online 6%
Mainstreet Research Jan 24–26, 2023 [p 14] 36.2% 41.5% 14.6% 5.1% 2.1% 4.3% 514 Smart IVR 5.3%
Probe Research Nov 22 – Dec 5, 2022 [p 15] 35% 46% 13% 3% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone/Online 11%
Probe Research Sep 8–18, 2022 [p 16] 37% 44% 15% 3% 1% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
Angus Reid Jun 7–13, 2022 [p 17] 38% 40% 13% 3% 6% 5% 468 Online 2%
Probe Research Jun 1–12, 2022 [p 18] 35% 45% 13% 3% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Probe Research Mar 9–21, 2022 [p 19] 34% 44% 15% 2% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Angus Reid Mar 10–15, 2022 [p 20][p 21] 39% 40% 14% 3% 5% 4% 475 Online 1%
Angus Reid Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 22] 36% 42% 12% 3% 6% 5% 407 Online 6%
Probe Research Nov 23 – Dec 5, 2021 [p 23] 37% 42% 12% 4% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 5%
October 30, 2021 Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Innovative Research Sep 24 – Oct 5, 2021 [p 24] 41% 32% 18% 5% 3% N/A 678 Online 9%
Angus Reid Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2021 [p 25] 38% 43% 11% 4% 5% N/A 435 Online 5%
Probe Research Sep 7–20, 2021 [p 26] 35% 42% 12% 3% 8% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2021 [p 27] 29% 47% 14% 5% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 18%
Angus Reid Jun 2–7, 2021 [p 28] 39% 42% 11% 4% 4% 4.0% 504 Online 3%
Probe Research Mar 10–26, 2021 [p 29] 36% 42% 11% 7% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
Probe Research Nov 24 – Dec 4, 2020 [p 30] 37% 41% 14% 6% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 4%
Angus Reid Nov 24–30, 2020 [p 31] 39% 40% 12% 5% 4% 4.8% 420 Online 1%
Probe Research Sep 8–17, 2020 [p 32] 43% 34% 16% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 9%
EKOS Jul 24 – Aug 26, 2020 [p 33] 44% 31% 12% 9% 4% 2.9% 1,154 HD-IVR 13%
EKOS Jun 16–Jul 23, 2020 [p 34] 43% 27% 18% 7% 5% 2.4% 1,691 HD-IVR 16%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2020 [p 35] 38% 36% 18% 7% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 2%
Innovative Research May 29 – Jun 3, 2020 [p 36] 38% 26% 26% 10% N/A N/A 200 Online 12%
Probe Research Mar 10–24, 2020 [p 37] 43% 33% 14% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Probe Research Nov 27 – Dec 10, 2019 [p 38] 42% 36% 13% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
2019 general election September 10, 2019 — 47.1% 31.4% 14.5% 6.4% 0.6% — — — 15.7%
Polling firm Dates conducted Source Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
PC NDP Liberal Green

See also

Notes

References

  1. ^ "Candidates". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved August 5, 2023.
  2. ^ Elections Act, CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
  3. ^ CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
  4. ^ Petz, Sarah (August 11, 2021). "Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister stepping down before next election". CBC News. Archived from the original on August 30, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  5. ^ Froese, Ian (October 30, 2021). "Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin". CBC News. Archived from the original on October 30, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  6. ^ https://angusreid.org/manitoba-election-polling-ndp-pc-wab-kinew-heather-stefanson/
  7. ^ https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/election-sexism-racism-heather-stefanson-wab-kinew-1.6967223
  8. ^ https://winnipeg.citynews.ca/2022/10/16/wab-kinew-health-care-balance-budget/amp/
  9. ^ "Political Parties". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved July 10, 2023.
  10. ^ Clarke, Eileen (August 21, 2022). "I will be retiring from my political life as of the 2023 provincial election". Facebook. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
  11. ^ Darren Bernhardt, Ian Froese, "Add Reg Helwer to growing list of Manitoba Tory MLAs bowing out of provincial politics". CBC News, January 6, 2023.
  12. ^ "Manitoba cabinet minister Sarah Guillemard won't run for re-election for health reasons". CBC Manitoba. The Canadian Press. June 13, 2023.
  13. ^ Darren Bernhardt (January 5, 2023). "Cathy Cox becomes the latest Tory MLA to decide against re-election bid". CBC Manitoba.
  14. ^ The Canadian Press, "Former Manitoba cabinet minister Ralph Eichler won't seek re-election". Winnipeg Free Press, October 4, 2022.
  15. ^ Jordan Ross, "Smook to retire from legislature". Winnipeg Free Press, October 17, 2022.
  16. ^ Steve Lambert, The Canadian Press (February 22, 2023). "Shannon Martin is the latest Manitoba Tory to opt out of upcoming election". Winnipeg Free Press.
  17. ^ Blaine Pedersen [@BlainePedersen] (July 15, 2021). "I will not be seeking re-election in the next provincial election" (Tweet). Retrieved July 15, 2021 – via Twitter.
  18. ^ Michael Blume, "Portage MLA Ian Wishart won't be running in next election". Portage Online, December 16, 2022.
  19. ^ Ian Froese, "Veteran Tory MLA Myrna Driedger won't run in 2023 Manitoba election". CBC News, January 4, 2023.
  20. ^ Bartley Kives, "Deputy premier Cliff Cullen won't seek another term in Manitoba legislature". CBC News, December 29, 2022.
  21. ^ Ian Froese, "Indigenous reconciliation minister Alan Lagimodiere won't seek re-election in 2023". CBC News, January 3, 2023.
  22. ^ "Economy, health care continue to draw focus of Manitoba election campaign". Winnipeg. September 14, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  23. ^ "Manitoba's election campaign will focus on the economy and health care Thursday - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  24. ^ "Manitoba's election campaign will focus on the economy and health care Thursday - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  25. ^ "Manitoba New Democrats promise to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  26. ^ "Manitoba Liberals urge voters to choose a different option this election - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  27. ^ "Manitoba Liberals promise new debt relief tools if elected". CBC News. September 27, 2023.
  28. ^ "Manitoba Chamber wants you to vote for prosperity". The Graphic Leader. September 27, 2023.
  29. ^ Gowriluk, Caitlyn (September 22, 2023). "Fact-checking Wab Kinew's promises on crime during Manitoba party leaders' debate". CBC News.
  30. ^ "Candidates encouraged to recognize the importance of Manitoba's pork industry". PortageOnline. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  31. ^ "New poll sheds light on Manitoba housing issues - REMI Network". REMINET. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  32. ^ Kives, Bartley (October 2, 2023). "Weaponized by PCs, sidelined by NDP: Indigenous concerns largely absent from Manitoba election". CBC News.
  33. ^ "Winners of recent Manitoba elections have seen sizable majority governments - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  34. ^ Hobson, Brittany; Modified, The Canadian Press Posted: Last (September 29, 2023). "Manitoba reports $270M surplus days ahead of vote". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  35. ^ "Candidates". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
  36. ^ "Our Team". Manitoba NDP. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  37. ^ Froese, Ian (April 11, 2023). "PCs, NDP place candidates in competitive Manitoba election races as polling gap narrows". CBC. Retrieved May 30, 2023.

Opinion poll sources

  1. ^ "NDP Majority Government Likely" (PDF). Forum Research. October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  2. ^ "Voters in Manitoba Give NDP the Lead Before Election Day". Research Co. October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  3. ^ Martin, Robert (October 2, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, October 2023 Public". Mainstreet Research. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  4. ^ "Voter Intention Survey for Manitoba & Winnipeg September 17-19,23". Sovereign North Strategies. September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  5. ^ "Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign". Angus Reid. September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  6. ^ "With election day nearing, latest polling shows NDP surging ahead in Manitoba". CTV News. September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  7. ^ "Voters in Manitoba Deeply Divided as Campaign Continues". Research Co. September 18, 2023. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
  8. ^ "Manitoba Public Opinion Report September 26, 2023" (PDF). Counsel Public Affairs. September 26, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
  9. ^ Fric, Curtis (September 7, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, August 2023 Public". Retrieved September 7, 2023.
  10. ^ Fric, Curtis (August 2, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, July 2023 Public". Retrieved August 3, 2023.
  11. ^ "NDP, PCs Head Into Pre-Election Period In a Dead Heat (June 2023 Provincial Voting Intentions)". Probe Research. June 21, 2023. Retrieved June 23, 2023.
  12. ^ "Double-digit advantage in Winnipeg has Manitoba NDP comfortably ahead in lead-up to October election". Angus Reid Institute. June 13, 2023. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  13. ^ "Manitoba Provincial Party Support" (PDF). probe-research.com. Retrieved March 28, 2023.
  14. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Manitoba" (PDF). ipolitics.ca. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
  15. ^ "NDP Lead Inches Slightly Higher (December 2022 Omnibus) | Probe Research Inc". probe-research.com. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
  16. ^ "Support for Manitoba PCs has slipped since last election, NDP holds the lead | CTV News". ctvnews.ca. September 25, 2022. Retrieved September 27, 2022.
  17. ^ "Prairie Politics: Moe and Stefanson share a border, but residents' government satisfaction is worlds apart" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. July 8, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 9, 2022. Retrieved July 19, 2022.
  18. ^ "NDP Maintains Lead Over PCs In Manitoba (June 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". probe-research.com. Archived from the original on July 19, 2022. Retrieved June 19, 2022.
  19. ^ "Gap Between NDP, PCs Widens (March 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on July 19, 2022. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  20. ^ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  21. ^ "Detailed Results" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  22. ^ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  23. ^ "No Bounce for New PC Leader and Premier | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 16, 2021. Retrieved December 16, 2021.
  24. ^ "Canada This Month: Manitoba Politics" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on October 9, 2021. Retrieved October 11, 2021.
  25. ^ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments | Angus Reid Institute" (PDF). www.angusreid.org. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  26. ^ "Progressive Conservative Support Rebounds in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on October 2, 2021. Retrieved October 12, 2021.
  27. ^ "NDP Lead Widens Further in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on June 18, 2021. Retrieved June 18, 2021.
  28. ^ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity and political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management | Angus Reid Institute". www.angusreid.org. June 9, 2021. Archived from the original on June 13, 2021. Retrieved June 13, 2021.
  29. ^ "NDP Extends Lead as Pallister Plumbs Lower Levels of Popularity | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on March 31, 2021. Retrieved March 31, 2021.
  30. ^ "NDP Takes Lead for First Time Since 2016 | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on January 17, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  31. ^ "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, The CCP virus management". Angus Reid Institute. December 10, 2020. Archived from the original on January 13, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  32. ^ "Provincial PCs See Uptick in Support | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on January 27, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  33. ^ "Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. September 2, 2020. Archived from the original on January 14, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  34. ^ "Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  35. ^ "PCs, NDP In Statistical Dead Heat | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 3, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  36. ^ "Manitoba Politics in the Time of The CCP virus: June 2020 Update" (PDF). innovativeresearch.ca. Archived from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  37. ^ "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 3, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  38. ^ Robertson, Dylan (December 27, 2019). "Dec 2019: NDP gains traction after PC re-election". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on September 17, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
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