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2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by 24.15.69.243 (talk) at 04:23, 8 November 2023 (→Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

See also: 2023 United States gubernatorial elections

2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election
← 2019 November 7, 2023 2027 →
 
Nominee Andy Beshear Daniel Cameron
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Jacqueline Coleman Robby Mills
Popular vote 694,419 628,196
Percentage 52.5% 47.5%
Beshear:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Cameron:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Andy Beshear
Democratic

Elected Governor

Andy Beshear
Democratic

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The 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky. Incumbent Democratic governor Andy Beshear won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

This race was one of two Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2023 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020, the other being in Louisiana, which Republicans successfully flipped.

This is the first gubernational election in the state's history where both major party candidates have previously held the position of Attorney General; Beshear held the position from 2016 to 2019, after which he was succeeded by Cameron.

Background

A socially conservative southern state, Kentucky is considered safely Republican in federal elections, with Republicans holding both of its U.S. Senate seats and all but one U.S. House seat. In the 2020 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump carried Kentucky by 26 percentage points. However, the state was much more competitive as recently as the 1990s (Bill Clinton, a Democrat, carried it twice at the presidential level), and Democrats remain competitive in some local and state-level elections.

Beshear was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating incumbent Republican Matt Bevin, who had been saddled with low approval ratings and heavy criticism for signing a pension reform bill for teachers. In that same year, Daniel Cameron was elected to Attorney General of Kentucky, becoming the first African-American to be elected to that position.

Since his election to Attorney General, Cameron had gained national recognition, especially due to his involvement in the Breonna Taylor case in 2020. He spoke at the 2020 Republican National Convention on August 25, 2020.[1] In September 2020, Cameron appeared on a 20-person shortlist of potential U.S. Supreme Court nominees by President Trump.[2]

On May 16, 2023, Cameron won the Republican nomination with 47.7% of the vote, a 26% margin over the second-place candidate.[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Andy Beshear
Organizations
Newspapers and other media

Fundraising

Beshear is the only candidate who has filed a financial disclosure.

Campaign finance reports as of January 3, 2023[12]
Candidate Raised Cash on hand
Andy Beshear $647,000 $7,400,000

Results

Results by county:
  Beshear
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Beshear (incumbent) 176,589 91.3
Democratic Geoff Young 9,865 5.1
Democratic Peppy Martin 6,913 3.6
Total votes 193,367 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Did not file

  • Anthony Moore, wellwater drilling contractor[7]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Daniel Cameron
Executive Branch officials
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Kelly Craft
Executive Branch officials
Statewide officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Mike Harmon
Organizations
Savannah Maddox (withdrawn)
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Ryan Quarles
State legislators
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising

Financial disclosures for major candidates are below:

Campaign finance reports as of April 18, 2023[44]
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Daniel Cameron $1,370,904 $777,446 $593,458
Kelly Craft $8,563,233[c] $8,156,315 $406,918
Eric Deters $669,064[d] $659,746 $9,319
Mike Harmon $84,547[e] $70,693 $13,854
Alan Keck $311,717[f] $257,577 $54,139
Ryan Quarles $1,202,650 $299,419 $903,231

Debates

2023 Republican primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Daniel Cameron Kelly Craft Eric Deters Mike Harmon Alan Keck Ryan Quarles
1 March 7, 2023 Jefferson County Republican Party
Spectrum News 1 Kentucky 		Mario Anderson Spectrum News 1 P A N P P P
2 April 26, 2023 Kenton County Republican Party
WCPO
LINK nky 		Evan Millward
Shane Noem
Mark Payne 		YouTube A A P P P P
3 May 1, 2023 Kentucky Educational Television Renee Shaw YouTube P P P N P P
4 May 8, 2023 WKYT
Transylvania University 		Bill Bryant WSAZ A A P P N P
5 May 9, 2023 WDKY Marvin Bartlett
Gilbert Corsey
Ashley Kirklen 		WDKY P A P N N P

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g] 		Margin
of error 		Daniel
Cameron 		David
Cooper 		Kelly
Craft 		Eric
Deters 		Bob
DeVore 		Mike
Harmon 		Alan
Keck 		Savannah
Maddox 		Ryan
Quarles 		Robbie
Smith 		Other Undecided
Emerson College May 10–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 33% 2% 18% 10% <1% 4% 3% – 13% <1% <1%[h] 13%
Emerson College April 10–11, 2023 900 (LV) ± 3.2% 30% <1% 24% 6% <1% 2% <1% – 15% <1% <1%[i] 21%
Mason-Dixon January 18–23, 2023 404 (LV) ± 5% 39% 1% 13% 2% 1% 5% 2% – 8% 1% – 28%
Meeting Street[A] January 9–11, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 39% – 8% 2% – 2% 1% – 8% – 2% 38%
December 20, 2022 Maddox withdraws from the race
co/efficient (R)[A] June 13–14, 2022 974 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% – 3% 4% – 5% – 7% 9% – 3% 22%

Results

Results by county:
  Cameron
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Quarles
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Craft
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Daniel Cameron 144,576 47.7
Republican Ryan Quarles 65,718 21.7
Republican Kelly Craft 52,170 17.2
Republican Eric Deters 17,464 5.8
Republican Mike Harmon 7,797 2.6
Republican Alan Keck 7,317 2.4
Republican David Cooper 2,282 0.8
Republican Jacob Clark 1,900 0.6
Republican Robbie Smith 1,388 0.5
Republican Bob DeVore 931 0.3
Republican Johnny Rice 726 0.2
Republican Dennis Ormerod 696 0.2
Total votes 302,965 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[45] Lean D July 21, 2023
Inside Elections[46] Tilt D September 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[47] Lean D October 16, 2023
Elections Daily[48] Lean D November 7, 2023

Debates

2023 Kentucky gubernatorial debates[49]
No. Date Host Link Democratic Republican
 P  Participant   A  Absent    I  Invitee
Andy Beshear Daniel Cameron
1 October 16, 2023 Northern Kentucky University YouTube P P
2 October 21, 2023 League of Women Voters YouTube P P
3 October 23, 2023 Kentucky Educational Television YouTube P P
4 October 24, 2023 WKYT WKYT P P

Endorsements

Andy Beshear (D)
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
Organizations
Political parties
Daniel Cameron (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State senators
State representatives
Municipal officials
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g] 		Margin
of error 		Andy
Beshear (D) 		Daniel
Cameron (R) 		Other Undecided
Concord Public Opinion Partners[B] November 1–2, 2023 470 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 40% – 12%
Data for Progress (D) November 1–2, 2023 660 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 48% – 2%
Emerson College October 30 – November 2, 2023 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% 2%[j] 4%
co/efficient (R)[C] October 18–19, 2023 1,845 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 45% − 8%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[D] October 14–16, 2023 721 (LV) ± 3.6% 52% 44% − 4%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 450 (RV) ± 4.6% 49% 33% 5%[k] 13%
WPA Intelligence (R)[E] September 25–28, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 42% – 10%
WPA Intelligence (R)[F] September 5–8, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 40% – 12%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[D] August 30 – September 1, 2023 716 (LV) ± 3.6% 51% 42% – –
Public Policy Polling (D)[D] August 9–10, 2023 737 (V) ? 49% 41% – 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[G] July 19–20, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 45% – 5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[H] June 22–29, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.95% 52% 42% – –
Cygnal (R) May 22–23, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 47% – 6%
co/efficient (R)[A] May 18–19, 2023 987 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 43% – 12%
Mason-Dixon January 18–23, 2023 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 40% – 11%
Hypothetical polling
Andy Beshear vs. Kelly Craft
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g] 		Margin
of error 		Andy
Beshear (D) 		Kelly
Craft (R) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon January 18–23, 2023 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 57% 32% 11%
Andy Beshear vs. Mike Harmon
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g] 		Margin
of error 		Andy
Beshear (D) 		Mike
Harmon (R) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon January 18–23, 2023 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 53% 33% 14%
Andy Beshear vs. Ryan Quarles
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[g] 		Margin
of error 		Andy
Beshear (D) 		Ryan
Quarles (R) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon January 18–23, 2023 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 52% 35% 13%

Results

2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
694,419 52.50% +3.30%
Republican
628,196 47.50% −1.33%
Write-in
Total votes 1,322,615 100.0%
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democrat to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Green nominee for Kentucky's 45th House district in 2012; Democratic candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2014, 2016, and 2018, Republican candidate in 2020, and Democratic nominee in 2022; Democratic candidate for governor in 2015 and 2019
  2. ^ Candidate for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district in 2008, 2012, and 2016; candidate for Kentucky's 46th House district in 2010 and nominee in 2020; Republican nominee for Mayor of Louisville in 2014 and candidate in 2018
  3. ^ $7,001,000 of this total was self-funded by Craft
  4. ^ $52,500 of this total was self-funded by Deters
  5. ^ $10,772 of this total was self-funded by Harmon
  6. ^ $32,000 of this total was self-funded by Keck
  7. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  8. ^ Ormerod with 0.5%
  9. ^ Jacob Clark with 0.5%
  10. ^ "Someone Else" with 2%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Cameron's campaign
  2. ^ Poll commissioned by Education Reform Now Advocacy
  3. ^ Poll commissioned by the Bluegrass Freedom Action PAC
  4. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Beshear's campaign
  5. ^ Poll commissioned by the Club for Growth PAC
  6. ^ Poll commissioned by the Club for Growth PAC
  7. ^ Poll commissioned by the Republican State Leadership Committee
  8. ^ Poll commissioned by the Prichard Committee for Academic Excellence

References

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  2. ^ "Trump lists Kentucky AG Daniel Cameron as potential US Supreme Court nominee".
  3. ^ "Kentucky Primary Election Results".
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  9. ^ a b "KY Democratic Party Endorses Gov. Beshear for Re-Election". Kentucky Fried Politics. March 27, 2023. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
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Official campaign websites
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