1995 Ontario general election

1995 Ontario general election

June 8, 1995
130 seats in the 36th Legislative Assembly of Ontario 66 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	62.10% (2.35pp)
First party Second party Third party   OLP Leader Mike Harris Lyn McLeod Bob Rae Party Progressive Conservative Liberal New Democratic Leader since May 12, 1990 February 9, 1992 February 7, 1982 Leader's seat Nipissing Fort William York South Last election 20 36 74 Seats won 82 30 17 Seat change 62 6 57 Popular vote 1,870,110 1,291,326 854,163 Percentage 44.8% 31.1% 20.6% Swing 21.3pp 1.3pp 17.0pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Click the map for more details.
Premier before election Bob Rae New Democratic Premier after election Mike Harris Progressive Conservative

The 1995 Ontario general election was held on June 8, 1995, to elect members of the 36th Legislative Assembly of the province of Ontario, Canada. The writs for the election were dropped on April 28, 1995.

The governing New Democratic Party, led by Premier Bob Rae, was defeated by voters, who were angry with the actions of the Rae government, such as its unpopular hiring quotas and the Social Contract legislation in 1993. These policies caused the NDP to lose much of its base in organized labour, further reducing support for the party. At the 1993 federal election, the NDP tumbled to less than seven percent support, and lost all 11 of its federal seats in Ontario. By the time the writs were dropped for the 1995 provincial election, it was obvious that the NDP would not be reelected.

Riding name change

Acts were passed in 1991 and 1993, providing for the following name changes to ridings:

• Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry to S-D-G & East Grenville.
• Grey to Grey—Owen Sound.
• York North to York—Mackenzie.

Campaign

The Liberal Party under Lyn McLeod had been leading in the polls for most of the period from 1992 to 1995, and were generally favoured to benefit from the swing in support away from the NDP. However, the party hurt its credibility through a series of high-profile policy reversals in the period leading up to the election. The most notable of these occurred when McLeod withdrew Liberal support from the Equality Rights Statute Amendment Act (Bill 167) introduced by the NDP government in 1994, which would have provided same-sex couples with rights and obligations mostly equal to those of opposite-sex common law couples and introduced a form of civil unions. Her decision was seen as cynical and opportunistic in light of the Liberals' earlier rural by-election loss in the socially conservative riding of Victoria—Haliburton. This gave the McLeod Liberals a reputation for "flip-flopping" and inconsistency while offending its socially progressive supporters.

The Progressive Conservative Party, led by Mike Harris, found success with its Common Sense Revolution campaign to cut personal income taxes, social assistance (welfare) rates, and government spending dramatically. Roughly half of his party's seats came from the more affluent regions of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), especially the suburban belt surrounding Metro Toronto, often called the '905' for its telephone area code.

In addition, by presenting himself as a populist, representing "ordinary Ontarians" over "special interests", Harris was able to build Tory support among working-class voters. Although there were regional variations, many working-class voters shifted directly from the NDP to the Tories during the election, enabling the latter to win formerly NDP ridings such as Cambridge and Oshawa.

The televised party leaders' debate is often regarded as the turning point of the campaign. During the event, McLeod further alienated many voters with an overly aggressive performance. Harris used his time to speak directly to the camera to convey his party's Common Sense Revolution platform, virtually ignoring all questions asked of him by Rae and McLeod and avoiding getting caught up in their debate. Since Liberal support was regarded by many political insiders as soft and unsteady, many voters who were previously leaning to the Liberals shifted to the Progressive Conservatives after the debate.

Opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level

Polling firm	Last day of survey	Source	PCO	OLP	ONDP	Other	ME	Sample
Election 1995	June 8, 1995		44.8	31.1	20.6	3.5
Gallup	June 4, 1995		42	35	20	—	3.1	—
Angus Reid	May 1995		44	34	20	—	3.2	1,000
Angus Reid	May 1995		41	36	21	—	3.2	1,000
	May 24, 1995		37	33	~25	—	—	400
Compas	May 1995		36	40	21	—	4.5	507
Environics	May 1995		26	52	17	—	3	—
Election called (April 28, 1995)

During the 35th Parliament of Ontario

Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level

Polling firm	Last day of survey	Source	PCO	OLP	ONDP	Other	ME	Sample
Angus Reid	April 1995		28	46	21	—	—	—
Comquest Research	March 1995		30	34	36	—	—	—
Angus Reid	January 1990		27	45	20	9	4.5	1,007
Environics	June 25, 1992		28	42	25	—	3.2	1,000
Environics	March 1992		28	43	23	—	—	—
Environics	June 1991		23	36	34	—	—	—
Environics	December 30, 1990		15	24	58	—	3.2	1,030
Environics	October 1990		18	27	51	—	3.2	1,007
Election 1990	September 6, 1990		23.5	32.4	37.6	6.5

Results

The Ontario Legislature after the 1995 election.

The Progressive Conservatives won a majority while the Liberals finished with less support than they had in the 1990 election. The NDP, despite improving their standing in some Northern Ontario ridings, were heavily defeated, falling to 17 seats and third party status. The New Democrats would remain the third party until 2018 when they returned to Official Opposition status. McLeod and Rae resigned their party leadership posts not long after the campaign. It was also the worst result for an incumbent Ontario governing party up to that time and would remain so until 2018 when the NDP finally surpassed the then-governing Liberals.

One independent candidate was elected: Peter North in the riding of Elgin. North had been elected in 1990 as a New Democrat, but left the NDP and declared his intention to run as a Progressive Conservative. The PC Party did not accept him as a candidate, however.

Party		Party leader	# of candidates	Seats			Popular vote
				1990	Elected	% Change	#	%	% Change
	Progressive Conservative	Mike Harris	130	20	82	+310%	1,870,110	44.8%	+21.3%
	Liberal	Lyn McLeod	130	36	30	-16.7%	1,291,326	31.1%	-1.3%
	New Democratic	Bob Rae	130	74	17	-77.0%	854,163	20.6%	-17.0%
	Family Coalition	Donald Pennell	55	-	-	-	61,657	1.5%	-0.1%
	Natural Law	Ron Parker	68	-	-	-	18,326	0.4%	+0.4%
	Green	Frank de Jong	37	-	-	-	14,108	0.4%	-0.3%
	Libertarian	John Shadbolt	18	-	-	-	6,085	0.2%	-0.4%
	Freedom	Jack Plant	11	-	-	-	4,532	0.1%	-0.1%
	Confederation of Regions		6	-	-	-	3,971	0.1%	-1.8%
	Communist	Darrell Rankin	5	-	-	-	1,015	0.02%	-0.08%
	Independent		61	-	1	-	33,077	0.8%	+0.5%
Total			636	130	130	-	4,158,370	100%	-

Popular vote PC   44.97% Liberal   31.05% New Democratic   20.54% Others   3.44%

Seats PC   63.08% Liberal   23.08% New Democratic   13.08% Independent   0.77%

Notes:

At least five unregistered parties fielded candidates in this election.

• The Reform Association of Ontario ran fifteen candidates. Their leader was Kimble Ainslie. An article of The Globe and Mail for August 19, 1995 indicates that the party won 6,400 votes.
• John Steele campaigned as a candidate of the Communist League.
• The Ontario Renewal Party ran a number of candidates under the leadership of Diane Johnston. This was the Marxist–Leninist party under a different name.
• Amani Oakley and Joe Flexer ran as "Independent Labour" candidates in Toronto with the support of dissident or former members of the Ontario New Democratic Party and with the support of OPSEU in the case of Oakley and the Canadian Auto Workers in the case of Flexer [1].
• John Turmel's Abolitionist Party ran at least two candidates.

Candidates from the aforementioned parties appeared on the ballot as independents. It is possible that some candidates listed below as independents actually belonged to these or other parties.

See also

• Politics of Ontario
• List of Ontario political parties
• Premier of Ontario
• Leader of the Opposition (Ontario)