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A brief history of shipping emissions

The incredible growth of World Trade dates back to the early 1960s. It is illustrated by the World Trade Organisationthat the volume of world trade today is approximately 4000% of the volume in 1960.[1] Transportation by sea contributes to 80% of all goods transported worldwide which equates to 10 billion tonnes of cargo annually. [2][3]

The significantly high level of emissions from shipping is therefore not surprising. The most prominent pollutants which are emitted by shipping are sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), black carbon (BC), carbon dioxide(CO2), primary and secondary particular matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and non-methane volatile organic compounds(NMVOCs).[4] Shipping has previously been linked to roughly 15% of global anthropogenic NOx emissions and between 5-8% of global SOx emissions.[4] Consequently this demonstrates that the vast amount of emissions produced by shipping contributes significantly to global levels of dangerous emissions.

The engines used in maritime shipping are commonly large diesel engines which use heavy fuel oil (HFO); These engines produce significant levels of air pollutants which include nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulphur oxides (SOx) that worsen air quality across coastal areas.[5] [6] This is because both nitrogen oxides and sulphur oxides are involved in the process of forming PM2.5 which is atmospheric particular matter that has a diameter which is less than or equal (>) to 2.5 μm.[6] This atmospheric particular matter PM2.5 has been linked to cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and mortality in humans.[7] The link between PM2.5 and multiple negative health impacts further give a clear demonstration of the dangers shipping emissions pose to human health.

Impacts on human health

It has previously been discovered that approximately 91% of the world’s population live in a location where the air quality levels are unacceptable under WHO guidelines. [8] [9] [10] Air pollution has been linked to roughly 7 million deaths around the world each year. [11]

In the most recent decades, efforts have been made to reduce shipping emissions in order to prevent increases in deaths linked to shipping related emissions. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) established the Global Sulphur Cap 2020 in October 2016 which was set to be implemented on 1 January 2020.[12] The Global Sulphur Cap 2020 asserts that board ships shall not exceed 0.50% m/m in the amount of sulphur content of any fuel oil used in areas outside the emission control areas (ECAs); this is a decrease from the earlier limit of 3.5% m/m. [12]

In the same year the Global Sulphur Cap was set to be introduced, it was predicted by Mueller et al [3] that approximately 265 000 premature deaths would occur in 2020 that can be linked to emissions created by global shipping. This represents an increase in deaths associated with a link to shipping emissions as for the years prior to 2012 it was estimated that around 87000 deaths occurred each year which could be linked to shipping emissions. [3] [13][14] [15] Researchers have stated that despite measures being recently put in place to control emissions, this rise in expected deaths was due to sudden increases in the volume of goods being transported by sea and the subsequent increase in global trade.[3] This indicates that further measures are necessary in order to curb the significant increase in deaths linked to shipping- emissions. Additional measure will need to take a more drastic approach in reducing emissions in order to stop any further increases in mortality linked to shipping-emissions.

A case study: The Iberian Peninsula

While it is apparent that emissions created by shipping can have a detrimental impact on human health, there are limited studies which have focused on the impact of shipping emissions in specific areas. Thus, the case study presented by Nunes et al (2020)[16] fills a gap in this literature by providing an analysis on the impact on human health of shipping emissions in the Iberian Peninsula.

The Iberian Peninsula is situated in the Southwest of Europe and it consists of Portugal, Spain, Andorra & Gilbraltar. On the north, west and southwest the Iberian Peninsula is adjacent to the Altantic Ocean and on the southeast it is bordered by the Mediterranean Sea; the Iberian Peninsula is a significant area which links shipping between North America, South America, Africa and remainder of Europe. [16] [17]

From Nunes et al’s (2020)[16] research, they concluded that the most significant level of emissions were detected along the Wedt Coast of the Iberian Peninsula, the Mediterranean Sea and the Strait of Gibraltar. The most notable emissions identified were SO2 and NO2 concentrations in the coastal areas and O3, PM2.5, PM10 and sulfate in the inland territories which Nunes et al (2020) conclude that this indiciates ships are significant source of polluting emissions[16]. In a similar study examining the emissions created by shipping, Viana et al (2020) [18] discovered that shipping in the Mediterranean Sea was responsible for 6% of the total level of PM2.5 in Barcelona and Athens and 15% in Brindisi and Genoa.[3] Therefore, it is clear that shipping can contribute to poorer air quality which has a negative effect on human health.

In a study in 2021, a year after the previous research efforts by Nunes et al [16], they found that premature deaths linked to PM2.5 emissions from shipping increased by 8.5% in Spain and 6.9% in Portugal when contrasted against a situation where these shipping emissions ceased to exist; this represents an average of a 7.7% increase for the whole of the Iberian Peninsula. The contrast between premature deaths in the case of current shipping emissions and the case of no shipping emissions is of vital importance for further research to build on and analyse.

There is evidence that the levels of shipping emissions vary depending on different seasons each year. Nunes et al(2020)[16] found that in 2015 data the highest levels of emissions were exhibited in Summer and Spring and they each accounted for 26% of the total emissions recorded in a year. In comparison, the recorded level of emissions from shipping sat at 23% in winter and 25% in Autumn; it is concluded that the changes in the figure can be linked to the increase of passenger ships in the Summer months which further escaluate pollutant concentration levels. [16]

Long-term implications on human health

There are several methods which can be used to reduce future levels of shipping related emissions and therefore reduce the impact on human health. With current estimates suggesting a growth of almost 40% in maritime transport activities by 2050, greenhouse gas emissions are predicted to be 90%-150% of 2008 levels (as researched by the fourth global IMO Greenhouse Gas (GHG) study). [4] [19]

A suggestion for decreasing future shipping related emissions has been brought forward by Toscano (2023).[4] The proposal is that the Mediterranean Sea should become a Sulfur Oxide Emission Control Area (Med SOx ECA) in line with regulation 14 of Annex VI of the MARPOL.[4] It is argued that this would be of considerable advantage to the health and subsequently the quality of life of European citizens. [4] The study used to back up this claim suggests that the Med SOx ECA would lead to a reduction in SOX emissions by 78.7% and a 23.7% reduction in PM2.5 emissions.[4]This would therefore reduce the impact of shipping related emissions on human health as the amount of emissions present would drastically decrease.

Another method which could be utilised to decrease shipping related emissions would for Shipping companies to be required to drastically decrease their emissions level beyond the current limit set by the Global Sulfur Cap 2020. [20]Approaches which could be taken by shipping companies include boats used for maritime shipping being required to switch to low-emission or emission free fuels supplies and investing in measures which can increase fuel efficiency. [20] Whilst these solutions are a great start to reduce shipping related emissions and consequently reduce the impact of these emissions on human health, a drastic reduction in the pollutant concentration levels is needed.




References

  1. ^ WTO (2022). "Evolution of trade under the WTO: handy statistics".
  2. ^ Schnurr, Riley E.J.; Walker, Tony R. (2019), "Marine Transportation and Energy Use", Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences, Elsevier, ISBN 978-0-12-409548-9
  3. ^ a b c d e Mueller, Natalie; Westerby, Marie; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark (2023). "Health impact assessments of shipping and port-sourced air pollution on a global scale: A scoping literature review". Environmental Research. 216: 114460. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2022.114460. ISSN 0013-9351.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g Toscano, Domenico (2023-07-21). "The Impact of Shipping on Air Quality in the Port Cities of the Mediterranean Area: A Review". Atmosphere. 14 (7): 1180. doi:10.3390/atmos14071180. ISSN 2073-4433.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)
  5. ^ Eyring, Veronika; Isaksen, Ivar S.A.; Berntsen, Terje; Collins, William J.; Corbett, James J.; Endresen, Oyvind; Grainger, Roy G.; Moldanova, Jana; Schlager, Hans; Stevenson, David S. (2010). "Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping". Atmospheric Environment. 44 (37): 4735–4771. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.04.059. ISSN 1352-2310.
  6. ^ a b Zhang, Yiqi; Eastham, Sebastian D; Lau, Alexis KH; Fung, Jimmy CH; Selin, Noelle E (2021-08-01). "Global air quality and health impacts of domestic and international shipping". Environmental Research Letters. 16 (8): 084055. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac146b. ISSN 1748-9326.
  7. ^ Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Murray, Lee T. (2016-11-02). "Strong influence of 2000–2050 climate change on particulate matter in the United States: Results from a new statistical model". dx.doi.org. Retrieved 2024-01-01.
  8. ^ Brandt, J.; Silver, J. D.; Christensen, J. H.; Andersen, M. S.; Bønløkke, J. H.; Sigsgaard, T.; Geels, C.; Gross, A.; Hansen, A. B.; Hansen, K. M.; Hedegaard, G. B.; Kaas, E.; Frohn, L. M. (2013-08-12). "Assessment of past, present and future health-cost externalities of air pollution in Europe and the contribution from international ship traffic using the EVA model system". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 13 (15): 7747–7764. doi:10.5194/acp-13-7747-2013. ISSN 1680-7324.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)
  9. ^ Gidlow, Christopher J.; Cochrane, Tom; Davey, Rachel; Smith, Hannah (2008). "In-school and out-of-school physical activity in primary and secondary school children". Journal of Sports Sciences. 26 (13): 1411–1419. doi:10.1080/02640410802277445. ISSN 0264-0414.
  10. ^ Nunes, Rafael A.O.; Alvim-Ferraz, Maria C.M.; Martins, Fernando G.; Peñuelas, Antonio L.; Durán-Grados, Vanessa; Moreno-Gutiérrez, Juan; Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka; Hannuniemi, Hanna; Sousa, Sofia I.V. (2021). "Estimating the health and economic burden of shipping related air pollution in the Iberian Peninsula". Environment International. 156: 106763. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2021.106763. ISSN 0160-4120.
  11. ^ "Figure 1 - Mortality rate due to ambient air pollution, by WHO region, 2012 [5]". dx.doi.org. Retrieved 2024-01-01.
  12. ^ a b Contini, Daniele; Merico, Eva (2021-01-09). "Recent Advances in Studying Air Quality and Health Effects of Shipping Emissions". Atmosphere. 12 (1): 92. doi:10.3390/atmos12010092. ISSN 2073-4433.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)
  13. ^ Corbett, James J.; Winebrake, James J.; Green, Erin H.; Kasibhatla, Prasad; Eyring, Veronika; Lauer, Axel (2007-12-01). "Mortality from Ship Emissions: A Global Assessment". Environmental Science & Technology. 41 (24): 8512–8518. doi:10.1021/es071686z. ISSN 0013-936X.
  14. ^ Partanen, A. I.; Laakso, A.; Schmidt, A.; Kokkola, H.; Kuokkanen, T.; Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Lehtinen, K. E. J.; Laakso, L.; Korhonen, H. (2013-12-12). "Climate and air quality trade-offs in altering ship fuel sulfur content". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 13 (23): 12059–12071. doi:10.5194/acp-13-12059-2013. ISSN 1680-7324.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)
  15. ^ Winebrake, J. J.; Corbett, J. J.; Green, E. H.; Lauer, A.; Eyring, V. (2009-06-03). "Mitigating the Health Impacts of Pollution from Oceangoing Shipping: An Assessment of Low-Sulfur Fuel Mandates". Environmental Science & Technology. 43 (13): 4776–4782. doi:10.1021/es803224q. ISSN 0013-936X.
  16. ^ a b c d e f g Nunes, Rafael A. O.; Alvim-Ferraz, Maria C. M.; Martins, Fernando G.; Calderay-Cayetano, Fátima; Durán-Grados, Vanessa; Moreno-Gutiérrez, Juan; Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka; Hannuniemi, Hanna; Sousa, Sofia I. V. (2020-08-13). "Shipping emissions in the Iberian Peninsula and the impacts on air quality". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 20 (15): 9473–9489. doi:10.5194/acp-20-9473-2020. ISSN 1680-7324.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)
  17. ^ Anonymous (2017-05-09). "Historical Climate off the Atlantic Iberian Peninsula". dx.doi.org. Retrieved 2024-01-01.
  18. ^ Viana, M.; Rizza, V.; Tobías, A.; Carr, E.; Corbett, J.; Sofiev, M.; Karanasiou, A.; Buonanno, G.; Fann, N. (2020). "Estimated health impacts from maritime transport in the Mediterranean region and benefits from the use of cleaner fuels". Environment International. 138: 105670. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2020.105670.
  19. ^ Leary, David (2020-12-01). "8. International Maritime Organization (IMO)". Yearbook of International Environmental Law. 31 (1): 305–306. doi:10.1093/yiel/yvab057. ISSN 0965-1721.
  20. ^ a b Galland, Grantly; Harrould-Kolieb, Ellycia; Herr, Dorothée (2012). "The ocean and climate change policy". Climate Policy. 12 (6): 764–771. doi:10.1080/14693062.2012.692207. ISSN 1469-3062.
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