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2024 British Columbia general election

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2024 British Columbia general election
← 2020 On or before October 19, 2024 (2024-10-19)
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia
47 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
David Eby - 2022 (52507022370) (cropped).png
KevinFalconOfficial (cropped4).jpg
Leader David Eby Kevin Falcon
Party New Democratic BC United
Leader since October 21, 2022 February 5, 2022
Leader's seat Vancouver-Point Grey Vancouver-Quilchena
Last election 57 seats, 47.70% 28 seats, 33.77%
Current seats 56 26
Seats needed Steady Increase 21
 
Sonia Furstenau (cropped).jpg
John Rustad 2016.jpg
Leader Sonia Furstenau John Rustad
Party Green Conservative
Leader since September 14, 2020 March 31, 2023
Leader's seat Cowichan Valley[a] Nechako Lakes
Last election 2 seats, 15.08% 0 seats, 1.91%
Current seats 2 2
Seats needed Increase 45 Increase 45
Popular vote by riding
Incumbent Premier

David Eby
New Democratic



The 2024 British Columbia general election will be held on or before October 19, 2024, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly to serve in the 43rd parliament of the Canadian province of British Columbia.

Background

Section 23 of British Columbia's Constitution Act provides that general elections occur on the third Saturday in October of the fourth calendar year after the last election.[1][2] The same section, though, makes the fixed election date subject to the lieutenant governor's prerogative to dissolve the Legislative Assembly as they see fit (in practice, on the advice of the province's premier or following a vote of non-confidence).[1][3]

The Electoral Boundaries Commission was required to complete redistricting following the 2020 general election. The government appointed commissioners in October 2021. Their final report was completed April 3, 2023,[4] and the Legislative Assembly approved the Electoral Districts Act on April 25. The number of seats in the Legislative Assembly will increase from 87 to 93, with new seats in Vancouver, Burnaby, Surrey, Langley, Langford, and Kelowna.[5]

Standings

Standings in the 42nd Parliament of British Columbia
Affiliation House members
2020 election results Current
New Democratic 57 56
United 28 26
Green 2 2
Conservative 0 2
Independent 0 1
Total seats 87

Retiring incumbents

MLA Party Seat First elected Date announced
Dan Ashton   BC United Penticton 2013 December 20, 2023[6]
Katrina Chen   New Democratic Burnaby-Lougheed 2017 November 22, 2023[7]
Mike de Jong   BC United Abbotsford West 1994 By-election Febuary 13, 2024
Karin Kirkpatrick   BC United West Vancouver-Capilano 2020 February 8, 2024[8]
Greg Kyllo   BC United Shuswap 2013 November 22, 2023[9]
Norm Letnick   BC United Kelowna-Lake Country 2009 November 22, 2023[10]
Mike Morris   BC United Prince George-Mackenzie 2013 March 21, 2023[11]
Selina Robinson   New Democratic Coquitlam-Maillardville 2013 February 5, 2024[12]
Ellis Ross   BC United Skeena 2017 January 22, 2024[13]
Doug Routley   New Democratic Nanaimo-North Cowichan 2005 September 26, 2023[14]
Nicholas Simons   New Democratic Powell River-Sunshine Coast 2005 September 1, 2023[15]
Ben Stewart   BC United Kelowna West 2018 By-election[b] November 22, 2023[16]
Jordan Sturdy   BC United West Vancouver-Sea to Sky 2013 January 12, 2024[17]

Timeline

2020

2021

  • February 17: Wilkinson officially resigns, triggering a year-long leadership race.[20]

2022

2023

2024

Opinion polls

LOESS curve of the polling and a 30-day average of polls (as of October 8, 2023)
Polling firm Client Dates conducted Source NDP BCU Green Con. Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Research Co. — January 22–24, 2024 [p 1] 46% 17% 11% 25% 2% ±3.5% 800 Online 21%
Pollara — January 8–16, 2024 [p 2] 51% 15% 10% 23% 1% ±2.2% 1,512 Online 28%
Angus Reid — Nov 24 – Dec 1, 2023 [p 3] 42% 20% 12% 25% 1% ±4% 487 Online 17%
Abacus Data — Nov 22–28, 2023 [p 4] 44% 17% 9% 26% 3% ±3.1% 1000 Online 18%
Angus Reid — Oct 2–9, 2023 [p 5] 43% 22% 12% 21% 1% ±2.5% 714 Online 21%
Research Co. — Sep 17–19, 2023 [p 6] 48% 20% 12% 19% 1% ±3.5% 800 Online 28%
Leger — Sep 15–18, 2023 [p 7] 42% 19% 10% 25% 3% ±3.1% 1,001 Online 17%
Sep 13, 2023 BC United MLA Bruce Banman crosses the floor to the BC Conservatives.
Mainstreet Research — Aug 29–31, 2023 [p 8][p 9] 34.8% 21.5% 12.7% 26.6% 4.3% ±4% 601 IVR 8.2%
Leger Postmedia News Jun 30 – Jul 4, 2023 [p 10] 44% 27% 11% 16% 3% ±3.1% 1,000 Online 17%
Jun 24, 2023 By-elections are held in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant and Langford-Juan de Fuca.
Angus Reid — May 30 – Jun 3, 2023 [p 11] 47% 29% 14% — 10% — 385 Online 18%
Research Co. — May 1–3, 2023 [p 12] 46% 33% 16% 4% 1% ±3.5% 800 Online 13%
Apr 12, 2023 BC Liberals change their party name to BC United.
Mar 31, 2023 John Rustad is acclaimed as leader of the BC Conservatives.
Angus Reid — Mar 6–13, 2023 [p 13] 45% 31% 16% — 8% ±4.0% 641 Online 14%
Mar 3, 2023 Trevor Bolin announces that he will be stepping down as leader of the BC Conservatives.
Feb 16, 2023 John Rustad joins the BC Conservatives, giving the party its only MLA.
Research Co. — Feb 4–6, 2023 [p 14] 44% 36% 16% 2% 2% ±3.5% 800 Online 8%
Leger Postmedia News Jan 20–23, 2023 [p 15] 47% 28% 10% 12% 3% ±3.1% 1,003 Online 19%
Angus Reid — Nov 28 – Dec 3, 2022 [p 16] 47% 32% 14% — 7% ±4.0% 658 Online 15%
Oct 21 – Nov 18, 2022 David Eby becomes NDP leader and premier of British Columbia. BC Liberal members approve name change to "BC United".
Research Co. — Oct 9–11, 2022 [p 17] 44% 35% 15% 4% 1% ±3.5% 800 Online 9%
Angus Reid — Q3 2022 [p 5][better source needed] 42% 29% 13% 14% 1% — — Online 13%
Angus Reid — Sep 19–22, 2022 [p 18] 40% 34% 17% — 9% ±3.0% 656 Online 6%
Leger Postmedia News Jul 22–24, 2022 [p 19] 44% 28% 12% 12% 4% — 1,000 Online 16%
Jun 28, 2022 John Horgan announces his intention to resign as premier of British Columbia and leader of the NDP.
Angus Reid — Jun 7–13, 2022 [p 20] 42% 31% 15% 10% 2% ±4.0% 615 Online 11%
Angus Reid — Mar 10–15, 2022 [p 21] 44% 29% 14% 9% 3% ±4.0% 604 Online 15%
Research Co. — Feb 12–14, 2022 [p 22] 46% 38% 13% 2% 1% ±3.5% 800 Online 8%
Feb 5, 2022 Kevin Falcon is elected leader of the BC Liberals
Angus Reid — Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 23] 44% 31% 16% 6% 3% ±4.0% 522 Online 13%
Stratcom — Nov 2–8, 2021 [p 24] 50% 30% 16% — 4% — 803 IVR 20%
Angus Reid — Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2021 [p 25] 45% 27% 14% 11% 2% ±4.0% 448 Online 18%
Angus Reid — Jun 2–7, 2021 [p 26] 50% 24% 18% 7% 2% ±4.0% 448 Online 26%
Insights West — May 26–30, 2021 [p 27] 42% 31% 19% 6% 2% ±3.4% 831 Online 11%
Angus Reid — Mar 2021 [p 20][better source needed] 47% 28% 15% 8% 1% — — Online 19%
Angus Reid — Nov 24–30, 2020 [p 28][p 29] 48% 26% 14% 11% 1% ±1.4% 551 Online 22%
Nov 23, 2020 Shirley Bond becomes the interim leader of the BC Liberals
Nov 21, 2020 Andrew Wilkinson resigns as leader of the BC Liberals
2020 general election Oct 24, 2020 – 47.7% 33.8% 15.1% 1.9% 1.5% – – – 13.9%
Polling firm Client Dates conducted Source Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
NDP BCU Green Con.

Notes

  1. ^ Furstenau plans to run in Victoria-Beacon Hill in 2024.
  2. ^ Previously served from 2009 to 2013

References

  1. ^ a b Constitution Act, s. 23.
  2. ^ Shaw, Rob (October 4, 2017). "NDP changes B.C.'s fixed election date from May to October". Vancouver Sun. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  3. ^ Zussman, Richard (May 26, 2017). "Christy Clark gets 1st chance to govern, but how long can it last?". CBC News.
  4. ^ "Final Report".
  5. ^ "Bill 25 – 2023: Electoral Districts Act". www.leg.bc.ca. Retrieved May 3, 2023.
  6. ^ "Penticton-Peachland MLA Dan Ashton not seeking re-election for 2024". December 20, 2023. Retrieved December 21, 2023.
  7. ^ Chen, Katrina [@KatrinaCBurnaby] (November 22, 2023). "We've all made decisions that have profoundly changed our lives, or even ourselves. I have – like working for the community I love for the past 17 years. Next year will mark my 10th year in elected positions, and I've decided not to seek re-election in 2024. Thank you all. 💛" (Tweet). Retrieved November 22, 2023 – via Twitter.
  8. ^ Richter, Brent (February 8, 2024). "West Vancouver MLA Karin Kirkpatrick won't seek re-election". North Shore News. Glacier Media Group. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  9. ^ "MLA for Shuswap announces political retirement, won't be seeking re-election - Okanagan | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved November 22, 2023.
  10. ^ "Kelowna-Lake Country MLA Norm Letnick not seeking re-election in 2024 - Okanagan | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved November 22, 2023.
  11. ^ "Morris stepping down as Prince George-Mackenzie MLA". Prince George Citizen. March 21, 2023. Retrieved November 22, 2023.
  12. ^ DeRosa, Katie (February 5, 2024). "Update: Selina Robinson will resign cabinet post following 'crappy piece of land' comments". Vancouver Sun. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
  13. ^ "Ellis Ross leaves BC United to run for federal conservatives". North Delta Reporter. January 22, 2024. Retrieved January 22, 2024.
  14. ^ "Nanaimo-North Cowichan MLA says he won't seek reelection". Comox Valley Record. September 26, 2023. Retrieved November 22, 2023.
  15. ^ "Sunshine Coast-Powell River MLA Nicholas Simons not running for sixth election". Coast Reporter. September 1, 2023. Retrieved November 22, 2023.
  16. ^ "Okanagan MLA Ben Stewart not seeking re-election in 2024 - Okanagan | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved November 22, 2023.
  17. ^ "West Vancouver-Sea to Sky MLA Jordan Sturdy to retire". North Shore News. January 12, 2024. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
  18. ^ "BC Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson stepping down for interim leader | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
  19. ^ "Veteran MLA Shirley Bond chosen interim leader of the B.C. Liberal Party". CBC News. November 23, 2020.
  20. ^ "Andrew Wilkinson formally resigns as B.C. Liberal leader, triggering leadership vote". Vancouver Sun. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
  21. ^ "B.C. Liberals elect former cabinet minister Kevin Falcon as next leader". British Columbia. February 5, 2022. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
  22. ^ "Former B.C. Liberal leader vacating seat to make room for new leader, Kevin Falcon". British Columbia. February 7, 2022. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
  23. ^ "2022 Vancouver-Quilchena By-election". Elections BC. April 2, 2022. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
  24. ^ "Veteran B.C. Liberal Stephanie Cadieux resigns seat, takes federal accessibility post". Victoria Times Colonist. April 4, 2022. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
  25. ^ Schmunk, Rhianna (June 28, 2022). "B.C. Premier John Horgan to step down before next election". CBC News.
  26. ^ "Longtime B.C. Liberal MLA removed from caucus after questioning climage change science". CBC News. August 18, 2022.
  27. ^ Steacy, Lisa (September 10, 2022). "BC Liberals win Surrey South byelection". CTV News. Retrieved December 13, 2022.
  28. ^ Greg Bowman, Hana Mae Nassar (November 16, 2022). "BC Liberals vote to change name to BC United". citynews.ca. Retrieved December 13, 2022.
  29. ^ Hunter, Justine (November 18, 2022). "David Eby sworn in as B.C.'s premier; announces new taxpayer credits". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved December 13, 2022.
  30. ^ CBC News (February 16, 2023). "Ex-B.C. Liberal MLA John Rustad crosses floor to join B.C. Conservatives". CBC News. Retrieved February 16, 2023.
  31. ^ Larsen, Karin (February 22, 2023). "Melanie Mark, 1st First Nations woman to serve in B.C. Legislature, delivers tearful resignation". CBC News. Retrieved February 22, 2023.
  32. ^ "B.C. Leadership". conservativebc.ca. Retrieved March 14, 2023.
  33. ^ "Former B.C. Liberal minister John Rustad acclaimed leader of B.C. Conservatives". CBC News. The Canadian Press. March 31, 2023. Retrieved March 31, 2023.
  34. ^ "Former B.C. premier John Horgan officially resigns seat in legislature". CTV News Vancouver Island. The Canadian Press. March 31, 2023. Retrieved April 2, 2023.
  35. ^ "B.C. Liberal Party officially becomes B.C. United". CBC News. April 13, 2023. Retrieved April 15, 2023.
  36. ^ "BC United MLA Bruce Banman defects to provincial Conservatives". CTV News. The Canadian Press. September 13, 2023. Retrieved September 13, 2023.
  37. ^ "Parksville-Qualicum MLA Adam Walker ousted from NDP caucus". Times Colonist. September 18, 2023. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
  38. ^ The Canadian Press (January 31, 2024). "B.C. Greens leader plans to run in different riding for next election". CBC News. Retrieved January 31, 2024.
  39. ^ Hunter, Justine; Hager, Mike (February 5, 2024). "Senior B.C. minister Selina Robinson removed from cabinet for saying Israel founded on 'crappy piece of land'". Globe and Mail. Retrieved February 5, 2024.

Opinion poll sources

  1. ^ "Conservatives Second, BC NDP Stays Ahead in British Columbia". Research Co. January 31, 2024. Retrieved January 31, 2024.
  2. ^ "Potential Reforms for BC App-Based Workers" (PDF). Pollara. January 31, 2024. Retrieved January 31, 2024.
  3. ^ "B.C. Spotlight: One-in-three would give province say on housing, but plurality prefer housing decisions stay local" (PDF). Angus Reid. December 18, 2023. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  4. ^ Coletto, David (December 4, 2023). "BC NDP leads by 18 as BC United fall well behind BC Conservatives". Abacus Data. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  5. ^ a b "A B.C. Battle (for second place): NDP hold comfortable lead as surging Conservatives pull into a tie with BC United". Angus Reid. October 19, 2023. Retrieved October 19, 2023.
  6. ^ "BC NDP First, Tight Race for Second Place in British Columbia". Research Co. September 26, 2023. Retrieved September 26, 2023.
  7. ^ "B.C. Government Report Card: October 2023". Leger. October 5, 2023. Retrieved October 5, 2023.
  8. ^ "New BC Poll". X. September 8, 2023. Retrieved September 8, 2023.
  9. ^ Martin, Robert (September 8, 2023). "BC Provincial, August 2023 Public". Mainstreet Research. Retrieved September 8, 2023.
  10. ^ "B.C. Government Report Card: July 2023". Leger Marketing. July 13, 2023. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
  11. ^ "Provincial Performance: B.C. & Ontario governments face immense, growing criticism over handling of key issues" (PDF). Angus Reid. June 28, 2023. Retrieved June 28, 2023.
  12. ^ "BC NDP Extends Advantage in British Columbia's Political Scene". Research Co. May 9, 2023. Retrieved May 9, 2023.
  13. ^ "BC Spotlight: Cost-of-living crisis persists, but NDP holds comfortable lead; BC United under Falcon yet to gain". Angus Reid. April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
  14. ^ "Governing BC NDP Stays Ahead of BC Liberals in British Columbia". Research Co. February 10, 2023. Retrieved February 10, 2023.
  15. ^ "Government of British Columbia Report Card January 2023" (PDF). Leger Marketing. February 10, 2023. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
  16. ^ "BC Spotlight: Eby's housing salvo met with enthusiasm, but NDP remains heavily criticized on affordability, health care". Angus Reid. March 31, 2022. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
  17. ^ "British Columbians Ponder Future Effect of BC NDP Leadership Race". Research Co. October 18, 2022. Retrieved October 18, 2022.
  18. ^ "The Horgan Legacy: Outgoing premier beats B.C. political odds by leaving on a high, but not without criticism". Angus Reid. April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
  19. ^ "NDP has a comfortable lead over B.C. Liberals: poll". Vancouver Sun. August 1, 2022. Retrieved August 1, 2022.
  20. ^ a b "Landing with a 'thud': Royal Museum rebuild causes political mess for NDP government, but BC Liberals yet to capitalize" (PDF). Angus Reid. March 31, 2022. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
  21. ^ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid. March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  22. ^ "BC NDP Remains Ahead of BC Liberals in British Columbia". Research Co. January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  23. ^ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  24. ^ "Poll shows high favourability rating for Premier John Horgan". Georgia Straight. December 12, 2021. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  25. ^ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy, drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
  26. ^ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity & political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. June 9, 2021. Retrieved July 5, 2021.
  27. ^ "Government of British Columbia Report Card — May 2021" (PDF). June 2021. Retrieved July 5, 2021.
  28. ^ "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, COVID-19 management" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. December 10, 2020. Retrieved January 12, 2021.
  29. ^ "November 2020 Detailed Tables" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
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