2024 United States Senate election in Ohio
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Elections in Ohio |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Primary elections are scheduled to take place on March 19, 2024.[1] Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term in office.[2] This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Montana and West Virginia. Brown's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[3]
Background
Ohio has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now seen as a moderately red state at the federal level. Republicans hold the other U.S. Senate seat and all statewide executive offices along with majorities in both state legislative chambers and the U.S. representative delegation. However, in the 2022 midterms Democrats managed to net a gain of one seat in Ohio's U.S. House delegation.[4][5]
Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections by about 8 points. Republican J. D. Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by about 6 points.[6][7]
Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent U.S. Senator Mike DeWine, and has won reelection in 2012 and 2018.[8][9][10] Even with the state's Republican partisan lean, this race is expected to be highly competitive, as Brown is generally popular among Ohioans and polling thus far has mostly shown him with a slight lead.[11]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Presumptive nominee
- Sherrod Brown, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–present)[2]
Endorsements
- U.S. Senators
- Mark Kelly, Arizona (2020–present)[12]
- Political parties
- Organizations
- Bend the Arc[14]
- Council for a Livable World[15]
- End Citizens United[16]
- Feminist Majority PAC[17]
- Human Rights Campaign[18]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[19]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[20]
- J Street PAC[21]
- League of Conservation Voters[22]
- Let America Vote[16]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[23]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[24]
- Population Connection Action Fund[25]
- Reproductive Freedom for All[26]
- Sierra Club[27]
- Labor unions
- National Education Association[28]
- North Shore AFL-CIO[29]
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Sherrod Brown (D) | $27,838,244 | $14,594,991 | $14,614,497 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[30] |
Polling
- Sherrod Brown vs. Tim Ryan vs. Shontel Brown
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown |
Shontel Brown |
Tim Ryan |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 256 (LV)[b] | ± 8.3% | 58% | 6% | 15% | 21% |
Ohio Northern University | Jul 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 59% | 7% | 17% | 17% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Sherrod Brown (incumbent) | |||
Total votes |
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Matt Dolan, state senator from the 24th district (2017–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[31]
- Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State (2019–present)[32]
- Bernie Moreno, former car dealership owner, father-in-law of U.S. Representative Max Miller, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[33]
Failed to qualify
Declined
- Warren Davidson, U.S. representative for Ohio's 8th congressional district (2016–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Moreno)[36][37]
- Mark Kvamme, venture capitalist and sports car racing driver (endorsed Moreno)[38]
- Josh Mandel, former Ohio State Treasurer (2011–2019), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012 and candidate in 2018 and 2022[39]
- Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive[40] (ran for president, endorsed Moreno)[41][42]
Debates
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Candidates | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
Matt Dolan | Frank LaRose | Bernie Moreno | |||||
1 | Jan. 22, 2024 | FOX 8 | Colleen Marshall Joe Toohey |
FOX 8 | P | P | P |
2 | Feb. 19, 2024 | Spectrum News | Mike Kallmeyer | Spectrum News | P | P | P |
3 | Mar. 6, 2024 | WLWT | Sheree Paolello | YouTube | P | P | P |
Endorsements
- U.S. Senators
- Rob Portman, Ohio (2011–2023)[43]
- Governors
- Mike DeWine, Governor of Ohio (2019–present)[44]
- State representatives
- Gayle Manning, HD-52 (2019–present)[45]
- Local officials
- Greg Lashutka, former mayor of Columbus (1992–2000)[46]
- Individuals
- Dee Haslam, co-owner of the Cleveland Browns[47]
- Jimmy Haslam, co-owner of the Cleveland Browns[47]
- Newspapers
- The Plain Dealer (Republican primary only)[48]
- U.S. Representatives
- Mike Turner, OH-10 (2013–present), OH-03 (2003–2013)[49]
- State representatives
- Mike Loychik, HD-65 (2021–present)[50]
- Melanie Miller, HD-67 (2023–present)[51]
- Josh Williams, HD-41 (2023–present)[50]
- Political parties
- Scioto County Republican Party[52]
- Organizations
- Ohio Right to Life (co-endorsement with Moreno)[53]
- U.S. Presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[54]
- U.S. Ambassadors
- Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[55]
- U.S. Senators
- John Barrasso, Wyoming (2007–present)[56]
- Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)[57]
- Norm Coleman, Minnesota (2003–2009)[58]
- Ted Cruz, Texas (2013–present)[59]
- Mike Lee, Utah (2011–present)[60]
- Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming (2021–present)[61]
- Roger Marshall, Kansas (2021–present)[62]
- Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)[62]
- Marco Rubio, Florida (2011–present)[63]
- Eric Schmitt, Missouri (2023–present)[52]
- Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)[64]
- J. D. Vance, Ohio (2023–present)[65]
- U.S. Representatives
- Warren Davidson, OH-08 (2016–present)[37]
- Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House (1995−1999) from GA-06 (1979−1999)[66]
- Jim Jordan, OH-04 (2007–present)[61]
- Max Miller, OH-07 (2023–present)[57]
- Lee Zeldin, NY-01 (2015–2023)[67]
- Governors
- Kristi Noem, South Dakota (2019–present)[68]
- Statewide officals
- Ken Blackwell, former Ohio Secretary of State (1999–2007)[69]
- Dave Yost, Ohio Attorney General (2019–present)[70]
- Individuals
- David Bossie, president of Citizens United[71]
- Mark Kvamme, venture capitalist[38]
- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor[72]
- Vivek Ramaswamy, former 2024 presidential candidate and pharmaceutical executive[42]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and executive vice president of The Trump Organization[73]
- Political parties
- Brown County Republican Party[74]
- Clermont County Republican Party[75]
- Cuyahoga County Republican Party[52]
- Greene County Republican Party[74]
- Preble County Republican Party[74]
- Summit County Republican Party[74]
- Warren County Republican Party[74]
- Organizations
- Club for Growth[76]
- Citizens United Political Victory Fund[71]
- Ohio Right to Life (co-endorsement with LaRose)[53]
- Turning Point Action PAC[77]
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Matt Dolan (R) | $9,142,313[c] | $4,336,931 | $4,851,971 |
Frank LaRose (R) | $1,854,196[d] | $1,082,585 | $771,611 |
Bernie Moreno (R) | $7,253,753[e] | $5,250,499 | $2,003,254 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[30] |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Matt Dolan |
Frank LaRose |
Bernie Moreno |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[A] | February 27 – March 3, 2024 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 27% | 21% | 29% | – | 23% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[B] | February 25–26, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 19% | 21% | 31% | – | 27% |
Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 15% | 21% | 22% | – | 42% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[C] | December 12–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 18% | 22% | – | 44% |
SurveyUSA[D] | December 8–12, 2023 | 573 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 18% | 33% | 12% | 1%[f] | 35% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[B] | December 3–5, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 18% | 19% | 23% | – | 40% |
co/efficient (R)[B] | November 18–20, 2023 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.18% | 13% | 14% | 15% | – | 58% |
Emerson College/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 468 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 15% | 18% | 10% | 32%[g] | 25% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 294 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 20% | 30% | 7% | 0%[h] | 43% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 269 (LV)[i] | ± 8.2% | 13% | 30% | 7% | 2% | 49% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 18% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 43% |
Suffolk/USA Today | July 9–12, 2023 | 190 (RV) | – | 14% | 19% | 9% | – | 57% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 405 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 14% | 17% | 7% | 4% | 58% |
Causeway Solutions (R)[E] | May 19–27, 2023 | 526 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 11% | 24% | 6% | 17% | 42% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Matt Dolan | |||
Republican | Frank LaRose | |||
Republican | Bernie Moreno | |||
Total votes |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[81] | Tossup | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections[82] | Tossup | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[83] | Tossup | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily[84] | Tossup | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis[85] | Tossup | December 21, 2023 |
Polling
- Sherrod Brown vs. Matt Dolan
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Matt Dolan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 38% | 37% | 5% | 20% |
Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 38% | - | 22% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | - | 7% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 30% | 0% | 25% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 38% | – | 26% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 33% | 0% | 22% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | 4% | 7% |
- Sherrod Brown vs. Frank LaRose
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Frank LaRose (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 39% | 37% | 6% | 18% |
Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 36% | - | 24% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | - | 8% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 31% | 0% | 25% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 38% | 39% | – | 23% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 32% | 0% | 23% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | 4% | 11% |
- Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Bernie Moreno (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 39% | 37% | 5% | 18% |
Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 32% | - | 26% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | - | 9% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 26% | 1% | 25% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 35% | 33% | – | 32% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 28% | 0% | 27% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 41% | – | 10% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 2% | 11% |
- Sherrod Brown vs. Joel Mutchler
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Joel Mutchler (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | - | 9% |
- Sherrod Brown vs. generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Sherrod Brown (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Causeway Solutions (R)[E] | May 19–27, 2023 | 1639 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Sherrod Brown (incumbent) | |||
Republican | TBD | |||
Total votes |
Notes
- ^ a b c d e f g Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary
- ^ $7,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Dolan
- ^ $250,000 of this total was self-funded by LaRose
- ^ $3,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Moreno
- ^ Joel Mutchler with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 29%; Joel Mutchler with 3%
- ^ Joel Mutchler with 0%
- ^ A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary
- Partisan clients
References
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Mark Kvamme, a Columbus venture capitalist and former JobsOhio CEO, has sometimes been mentioned as a potential Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2024. But 'that's not going to happen,' Kvamme told Capitol Letter on Monday. Kvamme said he's instead backing Cleveland car dealer/2022 U.S. Senate candidate Bernie Moreno
- ^ Gomez, Henry (November 16, 2022). "Another bruising Senate race brews in Ohio as Republicans target Sherrod Brown". NBC News. Retrieved November 16, 2022.
'Josh is not running for Senate in 2024 and has no plans to return to politics,' Scott Guthrie, Mandel's longtime political aide, wrote in a text message responding on his behalf.
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He decided against running in the 2022 Senate race won by Vance, and he's not gearing up to run for Senate next year.
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- ^ a b Gomez, Henry J. (January 8, 2024). "Jim Jordan endorses Trump-backed Bernie Moreno in messy Ohio Senate primary". NBC News. Retrieved January 8, 2024.
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- ^ Spady, Aubrie; Cawthorne, Cameron (February 5, 2024). "GOP senator announces endorsement in key battleground Senate race: 'We need more conservative fighters'". Fox News. Retrieved February 19, 2024.
- ^ Steinhauser, Paul (May 22, 2023). "First on Fox: Trump ally Sen JD Vance endorses in Ohio's 2024 GOP Senate primary, backing Bernie Moreno". Fox News. Retrieved May 22, 2023.
- ^ Gillespie, Brandon. "Former Navy SEAL seeking to oust three-term Democratic senator builds momentum with more big-name support". Fox News.
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- ^ Smyth, Julie Carr (January 23, 2024). "Businessman Bernie Moreno, Trump's Senate pick in Ohio, faced discrimination lawsuits, the AP finds". Associated Press. Retrieved January 27, 2024.
- ^ Tobias, Andrew J. (January 30, 2024). "Ohio AG Dave Yost endorses Bernie Moreno for U.S. Senate". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
- ^ a b "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Bernie Moreno for U.S. Senate from Ohio". Citizens United Political Victory Fund. February 7, 2024. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
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- ^ Hulsey, Lynn (February 29, 2024). "Trump Jr., touts Moreno as 'my father's guy' at rally in Butler County". Dayton Daily News. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
- ^ a b c d e Burd, Aaron (January 22, 2024). "Senate race: 'Women for Matt' Coalition, Moreno gains traction as lawsuits resurface". WCMH-TV. Retrieved January 27, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Clermont County Republican Central Committee Endorsed Candidates". Clermont County Republican Party. Retrieved January 27, 2024.
- ^ Holt, Matt (January 3, 2024). "Club for Growth PAC Backs Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno in Key Senate Primary". The Messenger. Archived from the original on January 3, 2024. Retrieved January 4, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
- ^ Boney, Stan (December 27, 2023). "Ohio leader talks marijuana, jobs and 2026 governor's race". WKBN-TV. Retrieved January 2, 2024.
'I don't intend on endorsing in the Senate race'...Husted said.
- ^ Tobias, Andrew J. (December 1, 2023). "Ohio Republican Party endorses Donald Trump in 2024 election". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved January 2, 2024.
The party issued no other primary election endorsements on Friday, including in the heated Republican Party for U.S. Senate
- ^ Mueller, Julia (July 19, 2023). "Ohio GOP braces for critical primary in bid to oust Sherrod Brown". The Hill. Retrieved September 26, 2023.
The chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), told CBS News last week that his group...plans to stay neutral in the Ohio race.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites