2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska
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| Elections in Nebraska |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Nebraska voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nebraska has 5 electoral votes.
A sparsely-populated and overwhelmingly-White state in the Great Plains, Nebraska has voted Republican in nearly every presidential election since its statehood, making exceptions only for favorite son William Jennings Bryan; Woodrow Wilson; FDR in his first two terms; and landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson. This did not change in the long term after the ideological realignment of the two main parties in the mid-20th century, as presidential Democrats have not even been able to come within single digits of carrying the state after LBJ's narrow sweep in 1964, and the only one to win more than 40% of the state vote since then was Barack Obama who garnered 41.60% in 2008.
However, the state's 2nd congressional district, which contains Omaha and some of its suburbs, has been competitive since 2008, when Obama narrowly won the district by 1.22% in the first election where Nebraska — one of two states that can split their electoral votes, the other being Maine — awarded a Democrat any of its EVs in 44 years. This leftward shift is primarily owed to recent population growth experienced by the Omaha metro. In 2020, NE-2 flipped back to the blue column when Democrat Joe Biden won it by 6.5%. While Nebraska at-large is heavily favored to remain a safe red state in 2024, NE-2 is generally seen as either a tossup or leaning towards the Democratic candidate.[1]
Incumbent president Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2]
In 2024, there was a push from some Republicans who attempted to get rid of split electoral college vote to winner-takes-all voting. This was supported by Former President Donald Trump, Governor Jim Pillen, 2nd District Congressman Don Bacon,[3] and Charlie Kirk from Turning Point USA.[4][5][6]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Nebraska Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on May 14, 2024.
Republican primary
The Nebraska Republican primary is scheduled to be held on May 14, 2024.
Libertarian primary
The Nebraska Libertarian primary is scheduled to be held on May 14, 2024. Six candidates are on the ballot.[7]
General election
Ballot access
Parties and candidates on ballot as of April 11, 2024:[8]
- Democratic – Joe Biden for president and Kamala Harris for vice president (presumptive)
- Legal Marijuana Now – nominees TBD
- Libertarian – nominees TBD
- Republican – Donald Trump for president, vice presidential nominee TBD
Additionally, the Kennedy/Shanahan campaign claims to have collected enough signatures to be on the ballot.[9]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[10] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Solid R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] | Solid R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[14] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[15] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 24–25, 2024 | 737 (V) | ± 3.6% | 57% | 34% | 9% |
| Change Research (D)[A] | November 13–16, 2023 | 1,048 (LV) | – | 53% | 35% | 12% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 423 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 31% | 23% |
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 24–25, 2024 | – | – | 46% | 43% | 11% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 24–25, 2024 | – | – | 37% | 34% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 12% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Nebraska
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety
References
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Montellardo, Zach (April 10, 2024). "Nebraska Republicans float special session to revive Trump-backed election rule change". Politico. Retrieved May 2, 2024.
- ^ Pengelly, Martin (April 3, 2024). "Far-right podcaster prompts Nebraska move to change electoral system" – via The Guardian.
- ^ Kerr, Nicholas (April 3, 2024). "Lawmakers skeptical of enacting Trump-backed bill in Nebraska that could give him edge over Biden". ABC News.
- ^ Kamisar, Ben; Bowman, Bridget; Smith, Allan (April 3, 2024). "Trump and GOP leaders push to change Nebraska electoral votes to winner-take-all". NBC News.
- ^ "Statewide Candidate List List as of 3/18/2024 10:41:21 AM" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ "Political parties in Nebraska". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
- ^ Wegley, Andrew (April 10, 2024). "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has enough signatures to appear on Nebraska ballot, his campaign says". Omaha World-Herald. Retrieved April 19, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
