2024 United States presidential election
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 2024 U.S. presidential election | |
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The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. Incumbent President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election.[2] His predecessor Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for re-election for a second, non-consecutive term, after losing to him in 2020.[3] If both are nominated, this will mark the first presidential election rematch since 1956.[4]
The winner of this election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. It will occur at the same time as elections relating to the U.S. Senate, House, gubernatorial, and state legislative. On March 12, Biden and Trump became the presumptive nominees for the Democratic and Republican parties respectively by clinching a majority of delegates, although they have yet to be confirmed at the nominating conventions.[5] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerged as the highest-polling third-party presidential candidate since Ross Perot[6] in the 1992 election, running as an independent.[7][8][9]
Abortion,[10][11][12] immigration, healthcare,[13] education,[14] the economy,[15] foreign policy,[16] border security,[17] LGBT rights,[18] climate change,[19][20] and democracy[21][22][23] are expected to be leading campaign issues.
In the run-up to the election, on May 30, 2024, Trump was convicted of 34 felonies related to falsifying business records, becoming the first president to be found guilty of a crime.[24]
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.
The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[25]
Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election. Both Biden and Trump are presumptive nominees for president in 2024, suggesting a rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956.[26] If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892.[27]
Trump is the first president in American history to be impeached twice, and the first to run again after impeachment. Trump was first impeached by the House of Representatives in 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress due to his attempts to coerce Ukraine to provide damaging information on Joe Biden and misinformation regarding Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections by withholding military aid.[28] Trump's second impeachment by the House occurred on January 13, 2021 for "incitement of insurrection" owing to his role in the January 6 United States Capitol attack. As Trump was acquitted by the Senate in both cases, Trump is not barred from seeking reelection to the presidency in 2024.[29]
The Colorado Supreme Court,[30] a state Circuit Court in Illinois,[31] and the Secretary of State of Maine[32] ruled that Trump is ineligible to hold office under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution for his role in the January 6 Capitol attack, and as such, attempted to disqualify him from appearing on the ballot.[33][32] These attempts were unsuccessful, as on March 4, 2024, the United States Supreme Court unanimously ruled that states cannot determine eligibility for a national election under Section 3.[34]
Election interference
False claims of interference by Donald Trump
Donald Trump has made false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, and has continued denying the election results as of May 2024[update].[36][37] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[38] In the lead up to the 2024 election, the Republican Party has made false claims of massive "noncitizen voting" by immigrants in an attempt to delegitimize the election if Trump loses.[39][40][41] The claims have been made as part of a larger election denial movement in the United States.[42] Trump has continued spreading his "Big Lie" of a stolen election and has claimed without evidence that the 2024 election is rigged. Trump has baselessly claimed some version of "election interference" against him roughly once per day since announcing his 2024 candidacy. Trump has falsely accused Biden of "weaponizing" the Justice Department to target him in relation to his criminal trials.[35] Trump and several Republicans have stated they will not accept the results of the 2024 election if they believe they are "unfair."[43]
Trump's previous comments suggesting he can "terminate" the Constitution to reverse his election loss,[44][45] his claim that he would only be a dictator on "day one" of his presidency and not after,[a] his promise to use the Justice Department to go after his political enemies,[52] his plan to use the Insurrection Act of 1807 to deploy the military in Democratic cities and states,[53][54] attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, continued Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, Trump's baseless predictions of vote fraud in the 2024 election,[55] and Trump's public embrace and celebration of the January 6 United States Capitol attack,[56] have raised concerns over the state of democracy in America.[57][58][59][60]
Interference by foreign nations
Current and former U.S. officials have stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election is likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI."[61] On April 1, 2024, The New York Times reported that the Chinese government had created fake pro-Trump accounts on social media "promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the election in November."[62] According to disinformation experts and intelligence agencies, Russia spread disinformation ahead of the 2024 election to damage Joe Biden and Democrats, boost candidates supporting isolationism, and undercut support for Ukraine aid and NATO.[63][64]
Criminal trials and indictments against Donald Trump
Trump's four criminal indictments totaling 91 felony counts and lawsuits against Trump are expected to be an issue during the 2024 presidential campaign.[65] On May 30, Trump was found guilty by a jury of all 34 felony counts in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump over falsifying business records for hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels (to ensure her silence about a sexual encounter between them) to influence the 2016 presidential election. This makes Trump the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime in American history.[66]
Trump faces an additional 57 felony counts; four counts in a United States of America v. Donald J. Trump for his alleged role in attempting to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election and involvement in the January 6 United States Capitol attack; 10 counts in The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al. for his alleged attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 United States presidential election in Georgia; 40 counts in United States of America v. Donald J. Trump, Waltine Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira relating to his hoarding of classified documents and alleged obstruction of efforts to retrieve them.[67]
In addition to his indictments, on May 9, 2023, Trump was found guilty by an anonymous jury[68] for sexual abuse[69] in E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump and ordered to pay a total of $88.3 million combined for damages and defamation.[70][71][72] In September 2023, Trump was found guilty of financial fraud and ordered to pay a $457 million judgement currently on appeal.[73]
According to an April 2024 Reuters/Ipsos poll, the percentage of registered voters who found Trump's charges somewhat to very serious in the federal elections case was 74%, 72% in the Georgia case, 69% in the classified documents case, and 64% in the New York hush money case.[74] Nearly a quarter of Republican voters said they would not vote for Trump if found guilty of a felony by a jury.[73] Following his hush money conviction, 15% of likely Republican voters and 49% of independents stated they wanted Trump to drop out, and 54% of registered voters approved of the jury's decision.[75] Polling also found 56% of Republicans who were unchanged by the verdict and 35% of Republicans and 18% of independents who stated they were more likely to vote for Trump.[76]
Trump has been noted for attempting to delay his trials until after the November election. If Trump wins the election in November, on January 20, 2025, Trump could order a new attorney general to dismiss the federal charges he is facing, prevent the state charges from taking affect through a variety of methods, and issue a presidential self-pardon.[77][78]
Electoral map
Effects of the 2020 census
This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[79][80] If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[81]
Historical background
In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one of the major parties. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that the various swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties — are vital to winning the presidency. As of now, these include states in the Rust Belt, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.[82] Strategists in both parties have stated the election will likely be decided by six percent of voters in these six states.[83] North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state, due to the close result in the previous presidential election, in which Trump only won by 1.34%.[84] Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, favoring them in future statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, former swing states like Colorado, New Mexico and Oregon have moved noticeably towards the Democrats, and the party has become the dominant political force there.[85][86][87]
The Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, performs best among Jewish and Black voters;[88][89] Whites who have attended college[90] or live in urban areas.[91] Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party moved significantly to the left on cultural issues.[92] Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural White voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[93] Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement.[94] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.[95]
Some polling for this election has indicated that Democratic strength among Hispanic, Asian, Arab, and youth voters appears to have somewhat eroded, while Republicans' durability with Whites and voters over the age of 65 also appears to be slipping.[96][97][98][99][100] However, some political analysts[101] have argued that these apparent trends in polling are not representative of the actual electorate, and are a polling mirage resulting from poor sampling months before the election, large numbers of voters who do not think the election will be between Biden and Trump,[102] and heavy non-response bias.[103][104][105][106]
Abortion,[107][11][108] immigration, healthcare,[13] education,[14] the economy,[15] foreign policy,[16] border security,[17] LGBT rights,[18] climate change,[19][109] and democracy[21][22][23] are expected to be leading campaign issues.
Campaign issues
Abortion
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Abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign. This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to abortion. The first is the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[110] The three justices appointed by former president Donald Trump—Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, and Neil Gorsuch—all voted to overturn the federal right to an abortion in Dobbs.[111] The second court case is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA's approval of mifepristone in 2000, which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts.[112] Both rulings have received strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers.[110][112]
Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right[113] while Republican politicians generally favor significantly restricting the legality of abortion.[114] By April 2023, most Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it largely illegal throughout much of the United States. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early-stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.[110]
Biden has called on Congress to codify abortion protections into federal law, and held many rallies on the issue.[115][116] Trump has claimed credit for overturning Roe, but has criticized Republicans pushing for total abortion bans.[117][118] Trump has said he will leave the issue of abortion for the states to decide, but would allow red states to monitor women's pregnancies and prosecute them if they have an abortion.[119]
Border security and immigration
Polling has shown that border security and immigration are among the top issues concerning potential voters in the 2024 presidential election.[120][121] In 2023 and 2024, a surge of migrants entering the country through the United States' border with Mexico occurred.[122]
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Donald Trump has stated that if elected, he would increase deportations, send the U.S. military to the border, expand ICE detentions through workplace raids,[123] deputize local law enforcement to handle border security, increase Customs and Border Patrol funding as well as finish building the wall on the southern border.[124] The New York Times reported that Trump plans "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration," including "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled.”[123] Trump has stated his intention to deport 11 million people through the construction of detention camps and using the military.[119]
Biden has stated his intention to increase funding and resources for border patrol and enforcement, provide a path for people in the United States to apply for legal status and eventually citizenship, and create a smoother and expanded visa process for foreign graduates of American universities.[125] The Biden administration has undertaken a policy of punishing migrants who enter the country illegally and providing temporary protections to migrants from certain countries such as Venezuela, Ukraine, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti. This has resulted in a total increase in migrants legally arriving at points of entry, and a decrease in migrants attempting to illegally cross the border.[124] In February 2024, Biden and congressional negotiators reached a bipartisan agreement on a bill to secure the border that included many conservative demands and also unlocked aid to Ukraine and Israel, but the bill was opposed by Trump who claimed it would hurt Republicans' ability to run on immigration as a campaign issue.[126][127][128][129][130][131] On June 4, 2024, Biden passed an executive order to shut down the border if illegal crossings reached an average of 2,500 migrants a day in a given week.[132]
Trump's anti-immigration tone is noted to have grown harsher from his previous time as president,[123] and has drawn criticism for using more dehumanizing rhetoric when referring to some illegal immigrants. Trump has called some immigrants "not human", "not people", and "animals".[133][134][135] Since fall 2023,[136] Trump has claimed that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," which has drawn comparisons to racial hygiene rhetoric used by white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.[137][138][136][139] Trump's comments come as part of violent, dehumanizing rhetoric Trump has increasingly utilized during his campaign.[140][133][141][139][142][143]
Kennedy has stated that he supports securing the border, including efforts like Operation Lone Star by states in the absence of federal action.[144]
Climate change
Climate change is expected to be an issue in the 2024 presidential election.[19]
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Biden has stated he believes in human-caused climate change.[146] Biden previously strengthened environmental protections that had been weakened during the Trump administration. Biden passed the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest investment in addressing climate change and clean energy in US history.[147] Biden has also overseen a record in US crude oil production with over 13.2 million barrels of crude per day beating the 13 million barrels per day produced at the peak of Trump's presidency. Biden has previously stated his intention to lower prices at the gas pump, which experts believe is key to his 2024 reelection campaign.[148] Biden's first term dealt with supply shocks caused by the 2021-2024 global energy crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine.[149]
Trump is running on a climate change denial platform.[150][151][152] Trump has repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "drill, baby, drill",[153] has promised to increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. Trump has stated his goal for the U.S. to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world.[154] Trump has promised to rollback electric vehicle initiatives, proposed leaving the Paris Climate Accords, and rescinding several environmental regulations.[154][155]
Democracy
Joe Biden has been framing the election as a battle for democracy, which was similar to his framing of contemporary geopolitics as "the battle between democracy and autocracy."[156] Biden's rhetoric previously cited democracy and "a battle for the soul of our nation" as the key message of his 2020 presidential campaign, and uses it as a recurring element in his rhetoric since the 2020 presidential election.[22]
Polling before the election has indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy.[157][158][159] Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[160] Many Republicans are concerned that Trump's former impeachment and four criminal indictments are attempts to influence the election and keep him from office.[161]
Donald Trump's 2024 campaign has been criticized by the media for making increasingly violent and authoritarian statements,[162][163][164] which some believe the Trump campaign is intentionally leaning into.[57] Trump's platform calls for the vast expansion of presidential powers and the executive branch over every part of the federal government.[165] Trump has called for stripping employment protections for thousands of career civil service employees and replacing them with political loyalists if deemed an 'obstacle to his agenda' within federal agencies, the United States Intelligence Community, State Department, and Department of Defense.[166]
Trump's campaign has been noted for using increasingly dehumanizing and violent rhetoric against his political enemies.[140][133][141][139][142][143] Trump has promised to pardon those charged for their involvement in the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack and has called those charged "hostages" and "great, great patriots."[167][168][169] Trump has played down but not ruled out violence after the 2024 election if he does not win, stating, "it depends."[170]
Speaking on Erin Burnett OutFront, Kennedy said that President Biden poses a bigger threat to democracy than Donald Trump.[171] Trump has claimed that Joe Biden is the "destroyer"[172] and real threat to democracy,[173] and has repeated false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him, of which there has been no evidence. Trump's claims have been made as part of a larger election denial movement conspiracy theory in the United States.[172]
Democracy is expected to be a large issue in the 2024 election. An AP-NORC poll of 1,074 adults conducted between November 30 to December 4, 2023, found that 62% of adults said democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the next election.[174]
Economic issues
Voters consistently cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election.[175][176][177] A period of high inflation began in 2021, caused by a confluence of events including the pandemic and a supply-chain crisis, which was then heightened by economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.[178][179] Opinion polling over Biden's handling of the economy has consistently been negative since late 2021.[180]
Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic, particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities.[181] Temporary childcare measures, including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents, but these would expire before the 2024 election.[182]
Both Biden and Trump signed pieces of economic legislation in their first terms which they may tout in the 2024 campaign.[183] Biden signed the American Rescue Plan,[184] Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act,[185] Inflation Reduction Act,[186] CHIPS and Science Act,[187] and the Fiscal Responsibility Act.[188] Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,[189] the CARES Act,[190] and several executive orders providing for de-regulation.[191]
Biden has dubbed his economic policy "Bidenomics" and has promised to create middle-class jobs and reject trickle-down economics.[192] Biden has proposed increasing taxes on large corporations and wealthy Americans to reduce the deficit and help fund programs for the poor and middle class by instituting a "billionaire minimum income tax."[193] Biden's trade agenda has been noted to reject traditional neoliberal economic policies and the Washington Consensus in favor of de-risking supply chains from China and reverse neoliberal policies that resulted in the offshoring of manufacturing and thus resulted in increased populist backlash.[194]
Trump has proposed further individual and corporate tax cuts beyond his prior 2017 tax cuts.[195] Trump has argued that keeping taxes low for the wealthy increases job creation.[193] Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. This would be accomplished through a universal baseline tariff[196] of 10% on all imports,[197] with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices.[154] Trump has also called for 100% tariffs on cars made outside the U.S. and a minimum 60% tariff on Chinese goods.[197] Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States.[154] The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump was preparing for a massive trade war.[198] Trump's trade policies have been described as protectionist,[199] neomercantilist or autarkist.[196][200]
Education
Under the Biden administration, several rounds of student loan forgiveness have been issued, totaling over $132 billion. The forgiveness has largely focused on public servants, people who were defrauded, and people in repayment for long periods of time.[201] In August 2022, Biden announced he would sign an executive order that would forgive large amounts of student debt, including $10,000 for student loan debt for single graduates making less than $125,000 or married couples making less than $250,000 and $20,000 for recipients of Pell Grants.[202][203] In June 2023, this plan was overturned in the Supreme Court decision Biden v. Nebraska.[204][205] In the aftermath of the decision, Biden has continued with more limited student loan forgiveness.[201] His plans have been criticized by Republicans as irresponsible spending.[206] Biden stated that offering universal pre-kindergarten services as well as caregiver support would be a priority of a second term.[207]
Some Republican candidates saw education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment.[208][209][14] Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they whitewash American history and act as memory laws to rewrite public memory of U.S. history.[210] Trump has pledged to terminate the Department of Education,[154] claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists."[211]
Foreign policy
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The ongoing Israel–Hamas war and Russian invasion of Ukraine are expected to be significant issues of the election.[212]
The United States has provided significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[213][214][215] Biden has made strengthening the NATO alliance and preparing for great power competition a cornerstone of his first term in office,[216] and has promised to defend the NATO alliance during his second term.[217] Donald Trump claims that Ukraine and suppressing Russian intervention should not be a significant interest to the United States, and that the plan should be more limited.[218] Trump previously stated he would potentially recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,[219] and made suggestions that he could have prevented the war by ceding parts of eastern Ukraine to Russia.[220] Trump's 2024 campaign has reiterated its isolationist "America First" foreign policy agenda,[220] and has promised to "fundamentally reevaluate" NATO's purpose and mission.[154] Trump has stated he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to countries that did not contribute enough to NATO.[221]
During the Israel–Hamas war, Biden announced "unequivocal" military support for Israel, and condemned the actions of Hamas and other Palestinian militants as terrorism.[222] Biden has requested 10.6 billion dollars of aid for Israel to Congress.[223] Biden's support for Israel has been criticized by progressives and Muslim leaders, many of whom have indicated they will not vote for Biden over the war.[224] By March 2024, Biden has become increasingly critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and has authorized air drops of aid and announced the construction of a military port to facilitate the delivery of aid to the enclave.[225][226] Kennedy condemned Hamas' attacks on Israeli civilians and declared support for aid to Israel.[227] Trump has given mixed messages on the war, pledging to support Israel and take a tough line on Iran, while also criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and praising Hezbollah as "very smart."[228][229]
Israel-Hamas war views
Polling has indicated a significant divide between government policy on the Israel–Hamas war and the views of the general public.[230] During the election, several pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian protests occurred in the United States. Biden voiced support for the right to protest but criticized when they became violent or antisemitic.[231] Trump has stated he would shut down Palestinian protests, deport demonstrators, and "set the movement back 25 or 30 years."[232]
A November 2023 poll had 68% of Americans agreeing with a statement that "Israel should call a ceasefire and try to negotiate" and a plurality opposed military aid to Israel, favoring the United States as a neutral meditator.[230] A February 2024 Associated Press poll found that 44% saw Israel as "a partner that the U.S. should cooperate with, but doesn't share its interests and values", while 35% saw Israel "as an ally that shares U.S. interests and values". 50% of Americans believed Israel had "gone too far" in its response, 31% thought Israel had "been about right" and 15% thought Israel had "not gone far enough".[233] Young Americans are significantly less supportive of Israel than older generations.[234][235] However, polling showed the war was only a "top concern" for 2% of young voters, well below inflation, the economy, and immigration.[236]
Healthcare issues
The issue of healthcare and drug policy, including whether the United States should shift to a universal healthcare system,[237] and the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to play a key role in the 2024 presidential election.[238]
Trump has made repealing the Affordable Care Act a key issue of the 2024 election.[13] During an interview on March 11, 2024, Trump suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which the Trump campaign later claimed was merely referring to "cutting waste" and that he would protect the programs. Trump previously suggested while president in 2020 that he would "at some point" look into cutting entitlement programs, and Trump's previous budget proposals have suggested some cuts to the programs. During the Republican primary, Trump attacked his opponents by suggesting they would cut entitlement benefits.[239][240]
Biden has touted the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which expanded the Affordable Care Act and included provisions to reduce prescription drug prices for people on Medicare.[241] Biden has promised to protect and defend the Affordable Care Act after Trump commented he would seek to replace the law if he wins a second term,[242][243] and Republican senators expressed openness to repealing certain sections of the law.[244][245] Biden has promised to defend Social Security and Medicare following comments made by Trump that suggested he was open to cutting the entitlement programs.[239][240] Biden has also signaled his intention to expand the price cap on the cost of insulin at $35 for Medicare recipients enacted as part of the Inflation Reduction Act to private insurance.[125] Biden previously signed one of the largest expansions in veterans benefits in American history through the Honoring our PACT Act of 2022 that provided medical care for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits.[246]
Kennedy has been a prominent anti-vaccine advocate, but according to Deseret News, he has attempted to moderate his anti-vaccine position before the election, stating that he is not against all vaccines.[247] West is running on a platform of Medicare-for-all.[248]
LGBT rights
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In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people.[249][250]
In his term as president, Biden signed the Respect for Marriage Act, which codified protections for same-sex and interracial marriage into law. Additionally, he has endorsed the Equality Act, legislation aiming to extend the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to offer protection on the basis of gender identity and sexual orientation across various domains such as in the workplace, housing, and health care sectors. In 2023, Biden directed the federal government to provide strategies to states on how to enhance access to healthcare and suicide prevention resources for the LGBT community.[251]
Trump has promised a rollback on trans rights.[252] Trump stated he will rescind Biden's Title IX protections "on day one" for transgender students using bathrooms, locker rooms, and pronouns that align with their gender identities.[253] Trump has stated he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders and claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left."[254] Trump has promised "severe consequences" for teachers that "suggest to a child that they could be trapped in the wrong body." Trump previously removed Title IX protections to ensure transgender youth had access to bathrooms of their choice and took steps to roll back transgender protections in the Affordable Care Act.[252]
Democratic Party
On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden announced his run for re-election, keeping Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[255][256] Consequently, Republicans have intensified their criticism of Harris since Biden declared his intention to run for office.[257] During late 2021, as Biden was facing low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election,[258] and some prominent Democrats (Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Tim Ryan and former Representative Joe Cunningham) publicly urged Biden not to run.[259][260][261] In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many are concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would be 86 at the end of his second term.[262] According to an NBC poll released in April 2023, 70 percent of Americans—including 51 percent of Democrats—believe Biden should not run for a second term. Almost half said it was because of his age. According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden's current approval rating is 41 percent, while 55 percent disapprove.[263] There was also speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[264][265] After Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.[266]
Author Marianne Williamson announced her candidacy in February 2023, before Biden announced his own candidacy for re-election. Williamson had previously sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.[267] In April 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy for the nomination.[268] Then on October 9, 2023, Kennedy announced that he would be dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run as an independent candidate.[269] Representative Dean Phillips announced his run against Biden on October 26.[270] Venture capitalist Jason Palmer announced his campaign on October 22.[271]
On March 6, 2024, Philips suspended his campaign after failing to win any primaries the previous night on Super Tuesday. Despite being perceived as a minor candidate, Palmer won the 2024 American Samoa Democratic presidential caucuses, making him the first candidate to win a contested primary against an incumbent president since Ted Kennedy in 1980.[272] He won no other contests and suspended his candidacy on May 15, 2024.[273] Biden and Williamson remain the only major candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination.[274]
On March 12, 2024, Biden officially became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.[275]
Presumptive nominee
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Personal U.S. Senator from Delaware 47th Vice President of the United States Vice presidential campaigns 46th President of the United States Incumbent Tenure   |
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| Joe Biden | Kamala Harris |
| for President | for Vice President |
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 |
| 46th President of the United States (2021–present) |
49th Vice President of the United States (2021–present) |
Republican Party
Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is not term-limited to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland in 1892.[276] Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[277][278] Trump is considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[279] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[280]
In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.[281] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[282][283]
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[284][285][286] On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback", DeSantis added. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[287] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[288] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[289]
Following the Iowa caucuses, in which Trump posted a landslide victory, DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving the former president and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served in Trump's cabinet, as the only remaining major candidates.[290][291] Trump continued to win all four early voting contests while Haley's campaign struggled to gain momentum.[292] On March 6, 2024, the day after winning only one primary out of fifteen on Super Tuesday, Haley suspended her campaign. Trump became the only remaining major candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.[293]
On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.[294]
Presumptive nominee
| ||
|---|---|---|
|
Business and personal 45th & 47th President of the United States Tenure
Impeachments Civil and criminal prosecutions  |
||
.jpg)
 | |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | TBA |
| for President | for Vice President |
_(cropped)_2.jpg) |
 |
| 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) |
TBA |
Third party and independent candidates
Third-party and independent candidates have also announced presidential runs. They include Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Cornel West. Centrist political organization No Labels intended to field a third-party "unity ticket", before abandoning their efforts in April 2024.[295] Some established third parties, such as the American Solidarity Party, the Prohibition Party, the Constitution Party, the Libertarian Party and the Party for Socialism and Liberation have announced presidential nominees, while the Green Party, has begun their primaries. While independent/third-party candidates often do better in opinion polls than actual election performance,[8] third-party candidates, as of April 2024, have the strongest showing in polls since Ross Perot's high poll numbers in the 1990s.[296]
Notable party nominations
The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president.
With majority ballot access
Libertarian Party
Chase Oliver was chosen by the Libertarian Party as its presidential nominee on May 26, 2024, at the 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Oliver was the party's candidate in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia.[297] As of May 2024[update], the party has ballot access in at least 37 states with a total of 380 electoral votes.[298]
 | |
|---|---|
| Chase Oliver | Mike ter Maat |
| for President | for Vice President |
 |
 |
| Sales account executive from Georgia |
Economist from Virginia |
Green Party
Jill Stein announced on May 26, 2024 that her campaign had accrued enough delegates to secure the Green Party nomination and thus became the presumptive nominee.[299][300][301] Stein was the party's candidate back in 2012 and 2016. Stein is a physician and a former member of the Lexington Town Meeting. No running mate has yet been announced, with the 2024 Green National Convention to take place from August 15 to 18, 2024.[302] As of June 2024[update], Stein has ballot access both on Green Party and Independent ballot lines in at least 22 states with a total of 273 electoral votes.[303]
 | |
|---|---|
| Jill Stein | TBA |
| for President | for Vice President |
 |
|
| Physician from Massachusetts |
TBA |
With partial ballot access
These parties have ballot access in some states, but not enough to get 270 votes to win the presidency, without running a write-in campaign.
- American Solidarity Party: Peter Sonski, Connecticut local politician[304]
- Constitution Party: Randall Terry, anti-abortion activist and perennial candidate[305]
- Prohibition Party: Michael Wood, businessman[306]
- Party for Socialism and Liberation: Claudia De la Cruz, political activist[307][308]
Without ballot access
- Socialist Party USA: Bill Stodden, nonprofit executive[309][310]
- Socialist Equality Party: Joseph Kishore, writer and SEP nominee in 2020[311]
- Socialist Workers Party: Rachele Fruit, hotel worker and trade unionist[312]
- Transhumanist Party: Tom Ross, technology and political activist[313]
Notable declared candidates
The following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.
Independents
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., after initially running in the Democratic primary, became an independent candidate in October 2023.[314][315] A member of the Kennedy family, he is an environmental lawyer who promotes conspiracy theories.[316][317] He has drawn support among independent and anti-establishment voters disillusioned with mainstream American political parties.[318][319] His polling, as of November 2023, was at the highest levels for a candidate outside the two major parties since 1992.[7][8] A member of the Kennedy family, Kennedy is a son of U.S. attorney general and senator Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of U.S. president John F. Kennedy and senator Ted Kennedy. On March 26, 2024, Kennedy announced Nicole Shanahan, an attorney from California, as his running mate.[320]
 (with the "We The People" party in some states) | |
|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Nicole Shanahan |
| for President | for Vice President |
 |
|
| Environmental lawyer from California |
Attorney and technologist from California |
Cornel West
Cornel West is a socialist activist and intellectual who announced a campaign as an independent after initially announcing a run as a People's Party and later a Green Party candidate.[248] His running mate is Melina Abdullah, an academic and civic leader from California.
(with the "Justice For All" party in some states) | |
|---|---|
| Cornel West | Melina Abdullah |
| for President | for Vice President |
 |
_(cropped).jpg) |
| Academic and activist from California |
Academic and civic leader from California |
Other independent candidates
- Shiva Ayyadurai, engineer, entrepreneur, and anti-vaccine activist; candidate for U.S. Senate from Massachusetts in 2018 and 2020[321][322][b]
- Johnny Buss, part-owner and vice president of strategic development of the Los Angeles Lakers[323][324]
- Joseph "Afroman" Foreman, rapper[325][326][327][328]
- Taylor Marshall, podcaster and author[329][330][326][331]
Withdrawn candidates
The following notable individual(s) announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election:
Opinion polling and forecasts
Opinion polling aggregation
Biden and Trump
The following nationwide polls feature Joe Biden, who was the presumptive nominee for the Democratic party before he withdrew from the race and endorsed Kamala Harris.
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
_polling.svg)
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | June 28 – July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 44.8% | 47.9% | 7.3% | Trump +3.1% |
| Race to the WH | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 44.1% | 46.2% | 9.7% | Trump +2.1% |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 43.3% | 46.6% | 10.1% | Trump +3.3% |
| Average | 44.1% | 46.9% | 9.0% | Trump +2.8% | ||
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
_polling.svg)
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Others/ Undecided [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 38.6% | 42.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | Trump +4.0% |
| 538 | through July 21, 2024 | July 21, 2024 | 40.2% | 43.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | Trump +3.3% |
| Average | 39.4% | 43.05% | 8.7% | 8.85% | Trump +3.65% | ||
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Others/ Undecided |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 39.2% | 43.4% | 8.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 5.2% | Trump +4.2% |
| Race to the WH | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 39.7% | 42.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 5.9% | Trump +2.9% |
| Average | 39.45% | 43.0% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 5.6% | Trump +3.55% | ||
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump (2024)
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| Reuters/Ipsos[333] | July 15–16, 2024 | 992 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 43% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[334] | July 15, 2024 | 2,045 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Forbes/HarrisX[335] | July 13–15, 2024 | 1,918 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 49% | 51% | — |
| Trump suffers an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. | ||||||
| Activote[336] | July 7–15, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49.5% | 50.5% | — |
| Survey USA[337] | July 12–15, 2024 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| The Center Square/Noble Predictive Insights[338] | July 8–11, 2024 | 2,300 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 43% | 46% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[339] | July 7–11, 2024 | 1,847 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| NPR/PBS News/Marist College[340] | July 9–10, 2024 | 1,174 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Fox News[341] | July 7–10, 2024 | 1,210 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| NBC News[342] | July 7–9, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post/Ipsos[343] | July 5–9, 2024 | 2,041 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Emerson College[344] | July 7–8, 2024 | 1,370 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Morning Consult[345] | July 5–7, 2024 | 11,323 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Pew Research Center[346] | July 1–7, 2024 | 7,729 (RV) | — | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| Lord Ashcroft[347] | June 28 – July 7, 2024 | 4,347 (LV) | — | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Bendixen & Amandi International (D)[348] | July 2–6, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 43% | 15%[e] |
| Daily Mail/J.L. Partners[17] | July 1–3, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| Cygnal (R)[349] | July 1–2, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[350] | July 1–2, 2024 | 1,070 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Wall Street Journal[351] | June 29 – July 2, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| CBS News/YouGov[352] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 2,815 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| New York Times/Siena College[353] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 1,532 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 43% | 49% | 7% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[354] | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 1,176 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[355] | June 29–30, 2024 | 869 (LV) | — | 44% | 46% | 11% |
| Harvard/Harris[356] | June 28–30, 2024 | 2,090 (RV) | — | 48% | 52% | — |
| Forbes/HarrisX[357] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 52% | — |
| CNN/SSRS[358] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,045 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[359] | June 28, 2024 | 2,068 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Data for Progress (D)[360] | June 28, 2024 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 48% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[361] | June 28, 2024 | 2,315 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 45% | 13% |
| Leger/New York Post[362] | June 27–28, 2024 | 841 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 38% | 45% | 17% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[363] | June 26–28, 2024 | 1,244 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| The presidential debate between Biden and Trump is hosted by CNN in Atlanta. | ||||||
| New York Times/Siena College[364] | June 20–25, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Leger/New York Post[365] | June 22–24, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.01% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[366] | June 20–24, 2024 | 1,405 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[367] | June 18–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Morning Consult[345] | June 21–23, 2024 | 10,159 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| CBS News/YouGov[368] | June 17–21, 2024 | 1,878 (LV) | — | 49% | 50% | — |
| ActiVote[369] | June 5–21, 2024 | 2,029 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 52% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[370] | June 20, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| Fox News[371] | June 14–17, 2024 | 1,095 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Morning Consult[345] | June 14–16, 2024 | 10,132 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[372] | June 10–12, 2024 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| NPR/PBS[373] | June 10–12, 2024 | 1,184 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 49% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[374] | June 10–11, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[375] | June 8–11, 2024 | 1,140 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Morning Consult[345] | June 7–9, 2024 | 10,260 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| CBS News/YouGov[376] | June 5–7, 2024 | 1,359 (LV) | — | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Cygnal (R)[377] | June 4–6, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 44.5% | 46.5% | 9% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[378] | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,239 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Emerson College[379] | June 4–5, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 50% | — |
| ActiVote[380] | May 23 – June 4, 2024 | 1,671 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 52% | — |
| Navigator Research[381] | May 23 – June 3, 2024 | 812 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[382] | May 31, 2024 | 2,200 (RV) | — | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Survey Monkey/The 19th[383] | May 30–31, 2024 | 5,893 (A) | ± 1.5% | 30% | 34% | 36% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[384] | May 30–31, 2024 | 2,135 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[385] | May 29–31, 2024 | 1,675 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 41% | 41% | 19% |
| Leger/The Canadian Press[386] | May 24–26, 2024 | 883 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| NPR/PBS[387] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,122 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[388][A] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Emerson College[389] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 50% | — |
| ActiVote[390] | May 6–21, 2024 | 1,081 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 51% | — |
| Quinnipiac University[391] | May 16–20, 2024 | 1,374 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Harvard-Harris[392] | May 15–16, 2024 | 1,660 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 53% | — |
| Cygnal (R)[393] | May 14–16, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights[394] | May 13–16, 2024 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 49% | 6% |
| Marquette Law University[395] | May 6–15, 2024 | 911 (RV) | — | 50% | 50% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[374] | May 7–14, 2024 | 3,208 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[396] | May 10–13, 2024 | 1,198 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Fox News[397] | May 10–13, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 2% |
| Ipsos[398] | May 7–13, 2024 | 1,730 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| RMG Research[399] | May 6–9, 2024 | 2,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[345] | May 3–5, 2024 | 9,918 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[400] | May 1–3, 2024 | 1,264 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Data for Progress (D)/Zeteo[401] | May 1–2, 2024 | 1,240 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | 6% |
| KFF[402] | April 23 – May 1, 2024 | 1,243 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[374] | April 29–30, 2024 | 856 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| ABC News[403] | April 25–30, 2024 | 2,260 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| ActiVote[404] | April 13–30, 2024 | 953 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 53% | — |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[405] | April 26–28, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Leger/The Canadian Press[406] | April 26–28, 2024 | 887 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 42% | 43% | 16% |
| Morning Consult[345] | April 26–28, 2024 | 10,109 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| HarrisX/Harris[407] | April 24–25, 2024 | 1,961 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 52% | — |
| NPR/PBS[408] | April 22–25, 2024 | 1,109 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| CNN/SSRS[409] | April 18–23, 2024 | 967 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[410] | April 18–22, 2024 | 1,429 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[345] | April 19–21, 2024 | 9,791 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| John Zogby Strategies[411][B] | April 14–21, 2024 | 23,683 (LV) | ± 0.6% | 45.7% | 46.1% | 8.2% |
| University of North Florida[412] | April 8–20, 2024 | 745 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 47% | 9% |
| Marist College[413] | April 16–18, 2024 | 1,047 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 48% | 1% |
| Emerson College[414] | April 16–17, 2024 | 1,308 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Morning Consult[345] | April 15–17, 2024 | 7,990 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[415] | April 13–16, 2024 | 1,161 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| NBC News[416] | April 12–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[417] | April 11–15, 2024 | 1,171 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[418] | April 12–14, 2024 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[419] | April 7–11, 2024 | 1,059 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| ActiVote[420] | March 24 – April 10, 2024 | 995 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 53% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[374] | April 3–8, 2024 | 833 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| Morning Consult[345] | April 5–7, 2024 | 6,236 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[421] | April 3–5, 2024 | 1,265 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| RMG Research[422] | April 1–4, 2024 | 1,679 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Emerson College[423] | April 2–3, 2024 | 1,438 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 46% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[424] | March 31 – April 2, 2024 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Morning Consult[345] | March 29–31, 2024 | 6,018 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Data for Progress (D)[425] | March 27–29, 2024 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| NPR/PBS[426] | March 25–28, 2024 | 1,199 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Marquette Law School[427] | March 18–28, 2024 | 674 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 48% | — |
| Forbes/HarrisX[428] | March 25, 2024 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 50% | — |
| Fox News[429] | March 22–25, 2024 | 1,094 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University[430] | March 21–25, 2024 | 1,407 (RV) | — | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Morning Consult[345] | March 22–24, 2024 | 5,833 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| ActiVote[431] | March 8–22, 2024 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 53% | — |
| HarrisX/Harris[432] | March 20–21, 2024 | 2,111 (RV) | — | 49% | 51% | — |
| The Economist/YouGov[433] | March 16–19, 2024 | 1,509 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[434] | March 15–17, 2024 | 941 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[345] | March 15–17, 2024 | 5,777 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Grinnell College[435] | March 11–17, 2024 | 715 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 45% | 17% |
| Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square[436] | March 11–15, 2024 | 2,510 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[437] | March 9–14, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 34% | 38% | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[438][C] | March 12–13, 2024 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[374] | March 7–13, 2024 | 3,356 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| The Economist/YouGov[439] | March 10–12, 2024 | 1,367 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[440] | March 9–12, 2024 | 1,324 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Yahoo! News/YouGov[441] | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,482 (A) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Forbes/HarrisX[442] | March 8–10, 2024 | 2,017 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 52% | — |
| Morning Consult[345] | March 8–10, 2024 | 6,300 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Emerson College[443] | March 5–6, 2024 | 1,350 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 51% | 49% | — |
| Morning Consult[345] | March 1–3, 2024 | 6,334 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[444] | February 28 – March 1, 2024 | 1,246 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| The Economist/YouGov[445] | February 25–27, 2024 | 1,498 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| The Economist/YouGov[446] | February 18–20, 2024 | 1,360 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac University[447] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,421 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Marquette University[448] | February 5–15, 2024 | 787 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 51% | — |
| Emerson College[449] | February 13–14, 2024 | 1,225 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| The Economist/YouGov[450] | February 11–13, 2024 | 1,470 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[451] | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,237 (A) | ± 2.9% | 34% | 37% | 29% |
| YouGov[452] | February 6–9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 10% |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[453] | February 2–3, 2024 | 917 (LV) | — | 41% | 44% | 15%[f] |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[454] | January 31 – February 2, 2024 | 1,266 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| NPR/PBS[455] | January 31 – February 2, 2024 | 1,441 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| SurveyUSA[456] | January 31 – February 2, 2024 | 1,048 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| The Economist/YouGov[457] | January 28–30, 2024 | 1,486 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[458] | January 27–30, 2024 | 1,217 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Emerson College[459] | January 26–29, 2024 | 1,260 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University[460] | January 25–29, 2024 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Harvard-Harris[461] | January 17–18, 2024 | 3,492 (RV) | — | 47% | 53% | — |
| The Messenger/HarrisX[462] | January 16–17, 2024 | 1,045 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 52% | — |
| The Economist/YouGov[463] | January 14–16, 2024 | 1,472 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| CBS News[464] | January 10–12, 2024 | 1,906 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[465] | January 7–9, 2024 | 968 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[466] | January 3–9, 2024 | 4,677 (A) | ± 1.5% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Morning Consult[345] | January 5–8, 2024 | 6,376 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Ipsos/With Honor PAC[467] | January 3–7, 2024 | 2,027 (V) | ± 2.45% | 32% | 34% | 34% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[468] | January 3–5, 2024 | 1,247 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 40% | 41% | 19% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[469] | January 2–4, 2024 | 2,573 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| The Economist/YouGov[470] | December 29, 2023 – January 2, 2024 | 1,343 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump (2023)
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[471] | December 13–19, 2023 | 841 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 54% | — |
| McLaughlin & Associates[472] | December 13–19, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 47%[g] | 10% |
| The Economist/YouGov[473] | December 16–18, 2023 | 1,336 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[474] | December 14–18, 2023 | 1,027 (RV) | — | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[475] | December 14–18, 2023 | 1,647 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 47% | 46% | 6% |
| Echelon Insights[476] | December 12–16, 2023 | 1,012 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[477] | December 10–14, 2023 | 1,016 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| New York Times/Siena College[478] | December 10–14, 2023 | 1,016 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 46% | 9% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News[479] | December 10–13, 2023 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 50% | 4%[h] |
| The Economist/YouGov Poll[480] | December 9–12, 2023 | 1,332 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies/CNBC[481] | December 8–12, 2023 | 1,002 (A) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs[482] | December 7–10, 2023 | 1,052 (RV) | ± 1.81% | 45% | 45% | 10%[i] |
| Rasmussen Reports[483] | December 6–10, 2023 | 892 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 48% | 14%[j] |
| Cygnal (R)[484] | December 5–7, 2023 | 2,000 (LV) | ± 2.16% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Marist College/NPR/PBS NewsHour[485] | December 4–7, 2023 | 1,129 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Emerson College[486] | December 4–6, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3% | 43.2% | 47.4% | 9.4% |
| SSRS/CNN[487] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 50% | 10%[k] |
| The Economist/YouGov Poll[488] | December 2–5, 2023 | 1,291 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| HarrisX[489] | November 22–28, 2023 | 4,003 (RV) | ± 1.6% | 42% | 46% | 13% |
| YouGov[490] | November 20–27, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
| Leger[491] | November 24–26, 2023 | 869 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[345] | November 24–26, 2023 | 6,527 (RV) | ± 1% | 43% | 42% | 16% |
| Emerson College[492] | November 17–20, 2023 | 1,475 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Harris X/The Messenger[493] | November 15–19, 2023 | 3,017 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[494] | November 14–17, 2023 | 1,006 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 47% | 8% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[466] | November 13–14, 2023 | 1,006 (A) | ± 3.8% | 33% | 35% | 32% |
| YouGov/The Economist[495] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,272 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| NBC News[496] | November 10–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News[497] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| YouGov/Yahoo! News[498] | November 9–13, 2023 | 1,058 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Quinnipiac University[499] | November 9–13, 2023 | 1,574 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Morning Consult[500] | November 10–12, 2023 | 6,130 (RV) | ± 1% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[501] | November 8–12, 2023 | 987 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[502] | November 1–3, 2023 | 1,242 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| CBS News/YouGov[503] | October 30 – November 3, 2023 | 2,636 (A) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 51% | 1% |
| SSRS/CNN[504] | October 27 – November 2, 2023 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[505] | October 30 – November 1, 2023 | 2,021 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| YouGov/The Economist[506] | October 28–31, 2023 | 1,500 (A) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[507] | October 27–30, 2023 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 43.5% | 14.5% |
| Quinnipiac[508] | October 26–30, 2023 | 1,610 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Morning Consult[509] | October 20–22, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1% | 43% | 43% | 15% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[510] | October 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Harvard Harris[511] | October 18–19, 2023 | 2,116 (RV) | ± 2% | 41% | 46% | 14% |
| Emerson College[512] | October 16–17, 2023 | 1,578 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Yahoo/YouGov[513] | October 12–16, 2023 | 1,120 (RV) | — | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinions Strategies/CNBC[514] | October 11–15, 2023 | 1,001 (A) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Grinnell College[515] | October 10–15, 2023 | 784 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| NPR/PBS/Marist College[516] | October 11, 2023 | 1,218 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| Fox News[517] | October 6–9, 2023 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 2% |
| SurveyUSA[518] | September 30 – October 3, 2023 | 2,330 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights[11] | September 25–28, 2023 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| YouGov/The Economist[519] | September 23–26, 2023 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Marquette University[520] | September 18–25, 2023 | 781 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 51% | — |
| Morning Consult[521] | September 22–24, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 14% |
| NBC News[522] | September 15–19, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 46% | 6% |
| Harvard/Harris[16][D] | September 13–14, 2023 | 2,103 (RV) | — | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| The Economist/YouGov[523] | September 10–12, 2023 | 1,500 (A) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 43% | 12% |
| Fox News[23] | September 9–12, 2023 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 1% |
| Morning Consult[521] | September 2–4, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| CNN/SSRS[524] | August 25–31, 2023 | 1,259 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[525] | August 17–21, 2023 | 1,113 | ± 2.7% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[521] | August 18–20, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Marist College[526] | August 11–14, 2023 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square[527] | July 31 – August 3, 2023 | 2,500 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Big Village[528] | July 24–26, 2023 | 1,663 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[529] | July 13–17, 2023 | 1,809 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[530] | July 13–17, 2023 | 1,098 | ± 2.7% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Marquette University[531] | July 7–12, 2023 | 788 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 50% | — |
| Morning Consult[532] | July 7–9, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[533] | July 5–6, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[532] | June 23–25, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[534] | June 19–23, 2023 | 2,875 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Emerson College[535] | June 19–20, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| NBC News[536] | June 16–20, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University[537] | June 8–12, 2023 | 1,735 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[538] | June 9–11, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| YouGov[539] | May 25–30, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[540] | May 22–25, 2023 | 1,035 (LV) | — | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Quinnipiac University[541] | May 18–22, 2023 | 1,616 (RV) | — | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Harvard/Harris[542] | May 17–18, 2023 | 2,004 (RV) | – | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Marquette University[543] | May 8–18, 2023 | 791 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 52% | — |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[544] | May 17, 2023 | 1,117 (LV) | — | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| YouGov/The Economist[545] | May 13–16, 2023 | 1,302 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Premise[546] | May 12–15, 2023 | 1,591 (RV) | — | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Morning Consult[547] | May 12–14, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| WPA Intelligence[548] | May 10–13, 2023 | 1,571 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[549] | May 5–8, 2023 | 1,060 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[547] | May 5–7, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | — | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post[550] | April 28 – May 5, 2023 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 45% | 16% |
| YouGov/The Economist[551] | April 29 – May 2, 2023 | 1,357 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Emerson College[552] | April 24–25, 2023 | 1,100 (RV) | — | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Morning Consult[547] | April 21–23, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | — | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Cygnal (R)[553] | April 18–20, 2023 | 2,500 (LV) | ± 1.94% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Harvard/Harris[554] | April 18–19, 2023 | 1,845 (RV) | — | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| YouGov/The Economist[555] | April 15–18, 2023 | 1,316 (RV) | — | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Premise[556] | April 14–17, 2023 | 1,485 (RV) | — | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[557] | April 14–17, 2023 | 1,027 (RV) | — | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[547] | April 14–16, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| YouGov/The Economist[558] | April 8–11, 2023 | 1,322 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Morning Consult[547] | April 7–9, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[559] | April 4, 2023 | 1,180 (LV) | — | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| YouGov[560] | April 1–4, 2023 | 1,319 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Premise[561] | March 31 – April 3, 2023 | 1,562 (RV) | — | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports[562] | March 30 – April 3, 2023 | 971 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Morning Consult[547] | March 31 – April 2, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[563][E] | March 31 – April 1, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[564] | March 30–31, 2023 | 729 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[565] | March 27–29, 2023 | 1,007 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[566] | March 26–27, 2023 | 2,550 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[567] | March 23–27, 2023 | 1,600 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Morning Consult[547] | March 24–26, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Harvard/Harris[568] | March 22–23, 2023 | 2,905 (RV) | — | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Marquette University[569] | March 12–22, 2023 | 863 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
| Premise[570] | March 16–21, 2023 | 1,509 (RV) | — | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[571] | March 20, 2023 | 1,250 (LV) | — | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[572] | March 16–20, 2023 | 1,059 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[573] | March 16–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Morning Consult[547] | March 17–19, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac University[574] | March 9–13, 2023 | 1,635 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Morning Consult[547] | March 10–12, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Wick Insights[575] | March 6–9, 2023 | 1,125 (LV) | — | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[576] | March 7–8, 2023 | 1,201 (LV) | — | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Premise[577] | March 4–7, 2023 | 1,621 (RV) | — | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Morning Consult[547] | March 3–5, 2023 | 5,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| Cygnal (R)[578] | February 24–27, 2023 | 2,424 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[579] | February 23–27, 2023 | 1,014 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Susquehanna[580] | February 19–26, 2023 | 800 (RV) | — | 52% | 39% | — |
| Emerson College[581] | February 24–25, 2023 | 1,060 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[547] | February 23–25, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | — | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights[582] | February 21–23, 2023 | 1,023 (LV) | — | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[583] | February 17–23, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[584] | February 19, 2023 | 1,102 (LV) | — | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Morning Consult[547] | February 17–19, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Premise[18] | February 16–19, 2023 | 1,717 (RV) | — | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[585] | February 16–19, 2023 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 1.5% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Harvard/Harris[586] | February 15–16, 2023 | 1,838 (RV) | — | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| Quinnipac University[587] | February 9–14, 2023 | 1,429 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[588] | February 6–13, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Morning Consult[547] | February 10–12, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | — | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports[589] | February 8–12, 2023 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[590] | February 10–11, 2023 | 1,056 (RV) | — | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[591] | February 2–6, 2023 | 1,063 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Morning Consult[547] | February 3–5, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post[592] | January 27 – February 1, 2023 | 895 (RV) | — | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[593] | January 28–29, 2023 | 1,139 (LV) | — | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| Morning Consult[547] | January 27–29, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Echelon Insights[594] | January 23–25, 2023 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[595] | January 19–24, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Morning Consult[547] | January 20–22, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Emerson College[596] | January 19–21, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Cygnal (R)[597] | January 19–20, 2023 | 2,529 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Marquette University[598] | January 9–20, 2023 | 790 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris[599] | January 18–19, 2023 | 2,050 (RV) | — | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| YouGov/The Economist[600] | January 14–17, 2023 | 1,314 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[601] | January 16, 2023 | 1,458 (LV) | — | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| YouGov/YahooNews[602] | January 12–16, 2023 | 1,028 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[547] | January 10–12, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Morning Consult[547] | January 6–8, 2023 | 7,500 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| WPA Intelligence[603] | January 2–8, 2023 | 1,035 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump (2022)
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult[547] | December 31, 2022 – January 2, 2023 | 8,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
| Data for Progress[604] | December 22–29, 2022 | 1,189 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[605] | December 15–19, 2022 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Morning Consult[547] | December 16–18, 2022 | 7,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris[606] | December 14–15, 2022 | 1,851 (RV) | — | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Echelon Insights[607] | December 12–14, 2022 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[608] | December 9–14, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Morning Consult[547] | December 9–11, 2022 | 7,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Suffolk University[609] | December 7–11, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research[610] | December 3–7, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[611] | December 5, 2022 | 1,162 (LV) | — | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[612] | December 1–5, 2022 | 1,204 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Marquette University[613] | November 15–22, 2022 | 840 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 34% | 22% |
| Emerson College[596] | November 18–19, 2022 | 1,380 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights[614] | November 17–19, 2022 | 1,036 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[615] | November 17, 2022 | 1,203 (LV) | — | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Harvard/Harris[616] | November 16–17, 2022 | 2,212 (RV) | — | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Léger[617] | November 11–13, 2022 | 1,007 (A) | — | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Rasmussen Reports[618] | November 8–9, 2022 | 1,767 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Democracy Corps/GQR[619] | November 6–8, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | — | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Morning Consult[620] | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[621] | November 2, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | — | 39% | 44% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[622] | October 27–31, 2022 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Benenson Strategy Group[623] | October 27–30, 2022 | 1,000 (V) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[624] | October 24–26, 2022 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research[625] | October 22–26, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | — | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Suffolk University[626] | October 19–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Emerson College[627] | October 18–19, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[628] | October 13–17, 2022 | 1,209 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[629] | October 12–17, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 50% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[630] | October 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris[631] | October 12–13, 2022 | 2,010 (RV) | — | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[632] | October 12, 2022 | 1,110 (LV) | — | 40% | 41% | 19% |
| Siena College/The New York Times[633] | October 9–12, 2022 | 792 (LV) | — | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| John Zogby Strategies[634] | October 5, 2022 | 1,006 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[635] | October 2–3, 2022 | 1,128 (LV) | — | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[636] | September 23–27, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[637] | September 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Emerson College[638] | September 20–21, 2022 | 1,368 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post[639] | September 18–21, 2022 | 908 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Premise[640] | September 16–19, 2022 | 1,703 (A) | — | 51% | 49% | — |
| Echelon Insights[641] | September 16–19, 2022 | 1,056 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Refield & Wilton Strategies[642] | September 14–15, 2022 | 1,163 (LV) | — | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Marquette University[643] | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,282 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
| Siena College/The New York Times[644] | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,399 (RV) | — | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Harvard/Harris[645] | September 7–8, 2022 | 1,854 (RV) | — | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[646] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 1,228 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[647] | September 2–6, 2022 | 1,247 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Premise[648] | September 2–5, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | — | 51% | 49% | — |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[649] | August 28, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | — | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research[650] | August 17–25, 2022 | 1,313 (RV) | — | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Emerson College[651] | August 23–24, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[652] | August 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Echelon Insights[653] | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[654] | August 18–22, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | — | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[655] | August 17, 2022 | 1,156 (LV) | — | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[656] | July 28 – August 1, 2022 | 1,152 (RV) | — | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[657] | July 29, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | — | 35% | 42% | 23% |
| Harvard/Harris[658] | July 27–28, 2022 | 1,885 (RV) | — | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports[659] | July 26–27, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Suffolk University[660] | July 22–25, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Emerson College[661] | July 19–20, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[662] | July 15–18, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | — | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[663] | July 11–14, 2022 | 1,085 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 48% | 10% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[664] | July 8–11, 2022 | 1,261 (RV) | — | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[665] | July 9, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | — | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| The New York Times/Siena College[666] | July 5–7, 2022 | 849 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 41% | 14% |
| Harvard/Harris[667] | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,308 (RV) | — | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Emerson College[668] | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 39% | 44% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[15] | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | — | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[669] | June 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Echelon Insights[670] | June 17–20, 2022 | 1,030 (LV) | — | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[671] | June 15, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | — | 38% | 41% | 21% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[672] | June 10–13, 2022 | 1,243 (RV) | — | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[673] | May 30, 2022 | 1,173 (LV) | — | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Emerson College[674] | May 24–25, 2022 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights[675] | May 20–23, 2022 | 1,020 (LV) | — | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[676] | May 19–22, 2022 | 1,360 (RV) | — | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Harvard/Harris[677] | May 18–19, 2022 | 1,963 (RV) | — | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[678] | May 17, 2022 | 1,120 (LV) | — | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports[679] | April 28 – May 2, 2022 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 50% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[680] | May 1, 2022 | 1,096 (LV) | — | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Emerson College[681] | April 25–26, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[239] | April 22–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Morning Consult[682] | April 22–25, 2022 | 2,004 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[683] | April 21–23, 2022 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[684] | April 19–22, 2022 | 1,187 (RV) | — | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris[685] | April 20–21, 2022 | 1,966 (RV) | — | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[240] | April 18–20, 2022 | 1,001 (LV) | — | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[686] | April 18, 2022 | 1,500 (LV) | — | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[687] | March 31 – April 4, 2022 | 1,233 (RV) | — | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[688] | April 3, 2022 | 1,205 (LV) | — | 38% | 43% | 19% |
| Marquette Law School[689] | March 14–24, 2022 | 1,004 (A) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris[690] | March 23–24, 2022 | 1,990 (RV) | — | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[691] | March 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Echelon Insights[692] | March 18–21, 2022 | 1,050 (RV) | — | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell[693] | March 15–21, 2022 | 873 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[694] | March 20, 2022 | 1,193 (LV) | — | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Emerson College[695] | March 18–20, 2022 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[696] | March 10–14, 2022 | 1,225 (RV) | — | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[697] | March 8, 2022 | 1,194 (LV) | — | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Wall Street Journal[698] | March 2–7, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | — | 45% | 45% | 9% |
| Schoen Cooperman Research[699] | March 2–6, 2022 | 800 (LV) | — | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[700] | February 24–27, 2022 | 1,532 (A) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| NewsNation[701] | February 23–24, 2022 | 1,046 (RV) | — | 37% | 41% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris[702] | February 23–24, 2022 | 2,026 (RV) | — | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[703] | February 19–23, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | — | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[704] | February 23, 2022 | 1,367 (LV) | — | 42% | 38% | 20% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[705] | February 16–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Emerson College[706] | February 19–20, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[707] | February 6, 2022 | 1,406 (LV) | — | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[708] | January 20–24, 2022 | 1,568 (A) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Morning Consult[709] | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[710] | January 21–23, 2022 | 1,098 (RV) | — | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Marquette Law School[711][l] | January 10–21, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | — | 43% | 33% | 24% |
| Harvard/Harris[712] | January 19–20, 2022 | 1,815 (RV) | — | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[713] | January 13–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[714] | January 8–9, 2022 | 1,430 (LV) | — | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| PMC[disambiguation needed]/John Bolton Super Pac[715] | January 6, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports[716] | January 5, 2022 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump (2021)
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[717] | December 17–19, 2021 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[718] | December 18, 2021 | 1,411 (LV) | — | 34% | 39% | 27% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[719] | December 9–13, 2021 | 1,558 (A) | — | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights[720] | December 9–13, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | — | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[721] | December 5, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | — | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris[722] | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | — | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[723] | November 22–23, 2021 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 45% | 23% |
| Wall Street Journal[724] | November 16–22, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | — | 46% | 45% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[725] | November 12–18, 2021 | 1,013 (RV) | — | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[726] | November 11–16, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[727] | November 15, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | — | 35% | 41% | 24% |
| Marquette Law School[728][m] | November 1–10, 2021 | 1,004 (A) | — | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[729] | November 4–8, 2021 | 1,673 (A) | — | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| Suffolk University[730] | November 3–5, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Emerson College[731] | November 3–4, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[732] | October 31, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | — | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris[733] | October 26–28, 2021 | 1,578 (LV) | — | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[734] | October 19–21, 2021 | 1,704 (A) | — | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Echelon Insights[735] | October 15–19, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | — | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[736] | October 17, 2021 | 1,366 (LV) | — | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Selzer and Company/Grinnell College[737] | October 13–17, 2021 | 745 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 40% | 19% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[738] | October 4–6, 2021 | 1,345 (LV) | — | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights[739] | September 17–23, 2021 | 1,005 (RV) | — | 50% | 39% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports[740] | September 21–22, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[741] | September 19–20, 2021 | 1,330 (LV) | — | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[742] | September 9–14, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies[743] | September 4–5, 2021 | 1,357 (LV) | — | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Emerson College[744] | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[745] | August 16–17, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 43% | 20% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[746] | July 30 – August 2, 2021 | 1,552 (A) | — | 47% | 37% | 16% |
| PMC[disambiguation needed]/John Bolton Super Pac[747] | July 8, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[748] | June 22–24, 2021 | 1,592 (A) | — | 47% | 35% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[749] | May 24–26, 2021 | 1,588 (A) | — | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[750] | May 11–13, 2021 | 1,561 (A) | — | 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[751] | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,106 (A) | — | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| PMC[disambiguation needed]/John Bolton Super Pac[752] | April 3–7, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Chase Oliver vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Jill Stein Green |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||||||
| NPR/PBS News/Marist College[340] | July 9–10, 2024 | 1,174 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 3% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| NBC News[342] | July 7–9, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 40% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 7% |
| Daily Mail/J.L. Partners[17] | July 1–3, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 43% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| Wall Street Journal[753] | June 29 – July 2, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 36% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| New York Times/Siena College[353] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 1,532 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 37% | 42% | 8% | <0.5% | 1% | 2% | 9% |
| CNN/SSRS[358] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,045 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 35% | 41% | 14% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[754] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| New York Times/Siena College[364] | June 20–25, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 40% | 7% | <0.5% | 1% | 2% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[755] | June 20–24, 2024 | 1,405 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 43% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[367] | June 18–24, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 37% | 39% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 9% |
| Marist College[756] | June 10–12, 2024 | 1,184 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Data for Progress (D)/Zeteo[401] | May 1–2, 2024 | 1,240 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 41% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Data for Progress (D)[425] | March 27–29, 2024 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||||
| The Center Square/Noble Predictive Insights[338] | July 8–11, 2024 | 2,300 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[339] | July 7–11, 2024 | 1,847 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 46% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| NPR/PBS News/Marist College[340] | July 9–10, 2024 | 1,174 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Fox News[341] | July 7–10, 2024 | 1,210 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 44% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| The Economist/YouGov[757] | July 7–9, 2024 | 1,443 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 43% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post/Ipsos[343] | July 5–9, 2024 | 2,041 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 42% | 43% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Emerson College[344] | July 7–8, 2024 | 1,370 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Lord Ashcroft[347] | June 28 – July 7, 2024 | 4,347 (LV) | — | 41% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[349] | July 1–2, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 38% | 44% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| The Economist/YouGov[758] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,392 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| CBS News/YouGov[352] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 2,808 (LV) | — | 40% | 44% | 11% | 2% | 3% | — |
| Harvard/Harris[356] | June 28–30, 2024 | 2,090 (RV) | — | 38% | 46% | 13% | 2% | 2% | — |
| Forbes/HarrisX[357] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 37% | 42% | 16% | 2% | 3% | — |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[363] | June 26–28, 2024 | 1,244 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 40% | 39% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
| AtlasIntel/CNN Brazil[759] | June 26–28, 2024 | 1,634 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 46% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| The Economist/YouGov[760] | June 23–25, 2024 | 1,406 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 10% |
| Leger/New York Post[365] | June 22–24, 2024 | 878 (LV) | ± 3.01% | 38% | 38% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 13% |
| The Economist/YouGov[761] | June 16–18, 2024 | 1,396 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Fox News[371] | June 14–17, 2024 | 1,095 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 42% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| New York Post/YouGov[762] | June 11–14, 2024 | 1,011 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 39% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights[763] | June 10–12, 2024 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 43% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| The Economist/YouGov[764] | June 9–11, 2024 | 1,399 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[377] | June 4–6, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College[379] | June 4–5, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38.4% | 44.4% | 5.9% | 1% | 1.2% | 9.1% |
| The Economist/YouGov[765] | June 2–4, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[385] | May 29–31, 2024 | 1,675 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 38% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 9% |
| Leger/The Canadian Press[386] | May 24–26, 2024 | 883 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 37% | 39% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
| The Economist/YouGov[766] | May 25–28, 2024 | 1,547 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 41% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[388][A] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 38% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 7%[n] |
| Emerson College[389] | May 21–23, 2024 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 38.7% | 43.8% | 5.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 9.6% |
| The Economist/YouGov[767] | May 19–21, 2024 | 1,560 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 41% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[391] | May 16–20, 2024 | 1,374 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Cygnal (R)[393] | May 14–16, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.53% | 38% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[394] | May 13–16, 2024 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 43% | 9% | 1% | 3% | 6% |
| The Economist/YouGov[768] | May 12–14, 2024 | 1,586 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 41% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| Fox News[769] | May 10–13, 2024 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[400] | May 1–3, 2024 | 1,264 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 39% | 38% | 12% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| USA Today[770] | April 30 – May 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 37% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 15% |
| The Economist/YouGov[771] | April 28–30, 2024 | 1,479 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 44% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Leger/The Canadian Press[406] | April 26–28, 2024 | 887 (LV) | ± 3.09% | 38% | 41% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| ABC News/Ipsos[772] | April 25–30, 2024 | 2,260 (A) | ± 2.0% | 42% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| HarrisX/Harris[407] | April 24–25, 2024 | 1,961 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 39% | 45% | 12% | 2% | 1% | — |
| The Economist/YouGov[773] | April 21–23, 2024 | 1,470 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| CNN/SSRS[409] | April 18–23, 2024 | 967 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 42% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[774] | April 18–22, 2024 | 1,429 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 37% | 16% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Marist College[413] | April 17–18, 2024 | 1,047 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 38% | 13% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies/NBC News[775] | April 12–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 37% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| Emerson College[414] | April 16–17, 2024 | 1,308 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 44% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 7% |
| The Economist/YouGov[776] | April 14–16, 2024 | 1,358 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 44% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[418] | April 12–14, 2024 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 40% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| NY Times/Siena[777] | April 7–11, 2024 | 1,059 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 43% | 2% | <0.5% | <0.5% | 12% |
| The Economist/YouGov[778] | April 6–9, 2024 | 1,583 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 12% |
| Issues & Insights/TIPP[779] | April 3–5, 2024 | 1,265 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 38% | 38% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 11% |
| Emerson College[423] | April 2–3, 2024 | 1,438 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| The Economist/YouGov[780] | March 30 – April 2, 2024 | 1,604 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 9% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[781] | March 29–31, 2024 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 43% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| NPR/PBS[426] | March 25–28, 2024 | 1,199 (LV) | — | 43% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Quinnipiac University[782] | March 21–25, 2024 | 1,407 (RV) | — | 38% | 39% | 13% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| The Economist/YouGov[433] | March 16–19, 2024 | 1,510 (RV) | — | 44% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 10% |
| Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square[436] | March 11–15, 2024 | 2,510 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Emerson College[443] | March 5–6, 2024 | 1,350 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 43% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[447] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,421 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 38% | 37% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Emerson College[459] | January 26–29, 2024 | 1,260 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 39% | 41% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Quinnipiac University[447] | January 25–29, 2024 | 1,650 (RV) | — | 39% | 37% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University[475] | December 14–18, 2023 | 1,647 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 36% | 38% | 16% | 3% | 3% | 5%[o] |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News[497] | December 10–13, 2023 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 41% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 4%[p] |
| Emerson College[486] | December 4–6, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3% | 37% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Emerson College[492] | November 17–20, 2023 | 1,475 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 36% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News[497] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 41% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[499] | November 9–13, 2023 | 1,574 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 35% | 38% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[783] | July 15, 2024 | 2,621 (RV) | — | 42% | 43% | 6% | 9% |
| Pew Research Center[346] | July 1–7, 2024 | 7,729 (RV) | — | 40% | 44% | 15% | 2% |
| Daily Mail/J.L. Partners[17] | July 1–3, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 43% | 7% | 13% |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[355] | June 29–30, 2024 | 869 (LV) | — | 39% | 42% | 10% | 9% |
| Harvard/Harris[356] | June 28–30, 2024 | 2,090 (RV) | — | 39% | 46% | 15% | — |
| Forbes/HarrisX[357] | June 28–30, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 38% | 43% | 19% | — |
| Patriot Polling[784] | June 27–29, 2024 | 1,029 (RV) | — | 41% | 44% | 11% | 4% |
| ActiVote[369] | June 5–21, 2024 | 2,192 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 42% | 44% | 14% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[785] | June 12, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 38% | 10% | 16% |
| ActiVote[786] | May 23 – June 4, 2024 | 1,775 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 42% | 45% | 13% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[787] | May 30–31, 2024 | 2,135 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 39% | 37% | 10% | 13% |
| ActiVote[390] | May 6–21, 2024 | 1,153 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 45% | 13% | — |
| Harvard-Harris[392] | May 15–16, 2024 | 1,660 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 45% | 14% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[374] | May 7–14, 2024 | 3,208 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 40% | 13% | 7% |
| Ipsos[398] | May 7–13, 2024 | 1,730 (RV) | — | 37% | 35% | 5% | 23% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[788] | April 29–30, 2024 | 856 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 38% | 8% | 15% |
| ActiVote[404] | April 13–30, 2024 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 41.2% | 44.4% | 14.4% | — |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research[405] | April 26–28, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43.7% | 39.5% | 11% | 5.9% |
| HarrisX/Harris[407] | April 24–25, 2024 | 1,961 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% | — |
| Change Research (D)[789] | April 17–22, 2024 | 2,745 (RV) | — | 38% | 39% | 8% | 14% |
| ActiVote[420] | March 24 – April 10, 2024 | 995 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 44% | 15% | — |
| Reuters/Ipsos[790] | March 7–13, 2024 | 3,356 (RV) | — | 43% | 38% | 12% | 7% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[791] | January 3–9, 2024 | 4,677 (RV) | ± 1.5% | 29% | 30% | 18% | 23% |
| Quinnipiac University[475] | December 14–18, 2023 | 1,647 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 38% | 36% | 22% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[483] | December 6–7 & 10, 2023 | 892 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 40% | 16% | 12%[q] |
| Cygnal (R)[484] | December 5–7, 2023 | 2,000 (LV) | ± 2.16% | 42% | 43% | 9% | 6% |
| Harvard/Harris[792] | November 15–16, 2023 | 2,851 (RV) | — | 36% | 44% | 21% | 0% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[466] | November 13–14, 2023 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 30% | 32% | 20% | 18% |
| Quinnipiac University[793] | November 9–13, 2023 | 1,574 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 37% | 38% | 21% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[794] | November 8–12, 2023 | 987 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 39% | 12% | 11% |
| Sienna College[795] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 3,662 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 33% | 35% | 24% | 8% |
| Cygnal (R)[796] | October 30 – November 1, 2023 | 2,000 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 40% | 39% | 12% | 8% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[507] | October 27–30, 2023 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 39% | 11% | 11% |
| Quinnipiac University[797] | October 26–30, 2023 | 1,610 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 39% | 36% | 22% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton[798] | October 29, 2023 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 38% | 40% | 10% | 12% |
| Susquehanna[799] | October 17–27, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 40% | 6% | 7% |
| McLaughlin and Associates[800] | October 23–26, 2023 | 449 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 39% | 14% | 11% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[801] | October 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 37% | 14% | 11% |
| Harvard Harris[511] | October 18–19, 2023 | 2,103 (RV) | ± 2% | 36% | 42% | 22% | — |
| Yahoo News/YouGov[802] | October 10–16, 2023 | 1,123 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 40% | 39% | 9% | 12% |
| NPR/PBS/Marist[803] | October 11, 2023 | 1,218 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 37% | 16% | 3% |
| Kennedy announces he will run as an independent candidate | |||||||
| Fox News[517] | October 6–9, 2023 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 41% | 16% | 2% |
| Cygnal (R)[804] | October 3–5, 2023 | 2,000 (A) | ± 2.16% | 39% | 40% | 12% | 9% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[805] | October 3–4, 2023 | 1,005 (A) | ± 4.0% | 31% | 33% | 14% | 22% |
| Echelon Insights[11] | September 25–28, 2023 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 40% | 14% | 10% |
| American Values[806] | September 24, 2023 | 1,008 | ± 3.2% | 38% | 38% | 19% | 5% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||
| The Wall Street Journal[807] | August 24–30, 2023 | 1,500 (RV) | — | 39% | 40% | 2% | 19% |
| Emerson College[808] | August 25–26, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 44% | 4% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[809] | August 15–23, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 41% | 42% | 6% | 11% |
| Emerson College[810] | August 16–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 5% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[811] | July 19–24, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | — | 40% | 42% | 5% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[812] | June 26–29, 2023 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 43% | 4% | 11% |
| Emerson College[535] | June 19–20, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 41% | 6% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Others/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||||
| Big Village[813] | June 7–9, 2024 | 1,423 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 7% |
| Big Village[814] | May 3–8, 2024 | 3,032 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 41.9% | 40.6% | 8.8% | 1.2% | 7.5% |
| Big Village[815] | March 29–31, 2024 | 1,425 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 40% | 8% | 2% | 8% |
| SSRS/CNN[487] | November 29 – December 6, 2023 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 39% | 20% | 6% | 4%[r] |
| HarrisX[489] | November 22–28, 2023 | 4,003 (RV) | — | 33% | 41% | 13% | 2% | 11% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[816] | November 15–19, 2023 | 3,017 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 33% | 40% | 14% | 2% | 11% |
| Big Village[817] | October 30 – November 5, 2023 | 1,497 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 37.1% | 40.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | 8.7% |
| CNN/SSRS[818] | October 27 – November 2, 2023 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 35% | 41% | 16% | 4% | 3% |
| HarrisX/The Messenger[505] | October 30 – November 1, 2023 | 2,021 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 36% | 41% | 11% | 2% | 10% |
| Quinnipiac University[797] | October 26–30, 2023 | 1,610 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 36% | 35% | 19% | 6% | 4% |
| McLaughlin and Associates (R)[819] | October 23–26, 2023 | 449 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 35% | 38% | 12% | 2% | 13% |
| Harris X/The Messenger[820] | October 16–23, 2023 | 3,029 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 35% | 38% | 13% | 2% | 12% |
| USA Today/Suffolk University[510] | October 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 37% | 13% | 4% | 9% |
| Harvard/Harris X[821] | October 18–19, 2023 | 2,116 (RV) | ± 2% | 31% | 39% | 18% | 3% | 9% |
| Zogby Analytics[822] | October 13–15, 2023 | 869 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 41.2% | 42.6% | 12.5% | 3.7% | — |
| Kennedy announces he will run as an independent candidate | ||||||||
| West announces he will run as an independent candidate | ||||||||
Biden, Trump, and Kennedy
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Others/ Undecided [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 38.6% | 42.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | Trump +4.0% |
| 538 | through July 21, 2024 | July 21, 2024 | 40.2% | 43.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | Trump +3.3% |
| Average | 39.4% | 43.05% | 8.7% | 8.85% | Trump +3.65% | ||
Biden, Trump, Kennedy, West, and Stein
| Poll source | Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Others/ Undecided |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 39.2% | 43.4% | 8.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 5.2% | Trump +4.2% |
| Race to the WH | through July 23, 2024 | July 23, 2024 | 39.7% | 42.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 5.9% | Trump +2.9% |
| Average | 39.45% | 43.0% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 5.6% | Trump +3.55% | ||
Electoral College forecasts
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by all forecasters (The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, CNalysis, Decision Desk HQ, and CNN) are omitted for brevity.
| State | EVs | PVI[823] | 2020 result |
2020 margin[824] |
IE May 8, 2024[825] |
Cook December 19, 2023[826] |
CNalysis May 23, 2024[827] |
Sabato January 3, 2024[828] |
CNN January 31, 2024[829] |
DDHQ/The Hill May 30, 2024[830] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 3 | R+8 | 52.8% R | 10.06% | Solid R | Solid R | Very Likely R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R |
| Arizona | 11 | R+2 | 49.4% D | 0.31% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Colorado | 10 | D+4 | 55.4% D | 13.50% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Lean D | Likely D |
| Florida | 30 | R+3 | 51.2% R | 3.36% | Lean R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R |
| Georgia | 16 | R+3 | 49.5% D | 0.24% | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tossup |
| Iowa | 6 | R+6 | 53.1% R | 8.20% | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R |
| Maine[s] | 2 | D+2 | 53.1% D | 9.07% | Likely D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Lean D |
| ME–02[s] | 1 | R+6 | 52.3% R | 7.44% | Lean R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Michigan | 15 | R+1 | 50.6% D | 2.78% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean R (flip) | Tossup |
| Minnesota | 10 | D+1 | 52.4% D | 7.11% | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D |
| NE–02[s] | 1 | EVEN | 52.0% D[t] | 6.50% | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D |
| Nevada | 6 | R+1 | 50.1% D | 2.39% | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tossup |
| New Hampshire | 4 | D+1 | 52.7% D | 7.35% | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D |
| New Jersey | 5 | D+6 | 57.3% D | 15.94% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D |
| New Mexico | 5 | D+3 | 54.3% D | 10.79% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D |
| North Carolina | 16 | R+3 | 49.9% R | 1.35% | Tilt R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R |
| Ohio | 17 | R+6 | 53.3% R | 8.03% | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R |
| Oregon | 8 | D+6 | 56.4% D | 16.08% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Lean D | Likely D |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | R+2 | 50.0% D | 1.16% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup |
| Texas | 40 | R+5 | 52.1% R | 5.58% | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R |
| Virginia | 13 | D+3 | 54.1% D | 10.11% | Likely D | Solid D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D |
| Wisconsin | 10 | R+2 | 49.5% D | 0.63% | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Overall | D – 226 R – 235 77 tossups |
D – 226 R – 235 77 tossups |
D – 226 R – 257 55 tossups |
D – 260 R – 235 43 tossups |
D – 225 R – 272 41 tossups |
D – 226 R – 235 77 tossups | ||||
Debates
In April 2022, the Republican National Committee voted unanimously to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD).[831] In May 2024, the Biden campaign proposed holding two debates outside of the CPD schedule and declined to appear at CPD-hosted debates. Both Biden and Trump agreed to a debate hosted by CNN on June 27 and one hosted by ABC News on September 10.[832]
See also
- 2024 United States elections
- Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
- Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
- Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election
Notes
- ^ Attributed to multiple references:[46][47][48][49][50][51]
- ^ Ayyadurai is not eligible to serve as president as he is not a natural-born citizen, but he claims he can run for office.
- ^ a b c Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Third party" with 5%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 11%; Undecided with 4%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Other" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" & "Don't know" with 1%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 6%; "Not sure" with 4%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 10%; "Not sure" with 4%
- ^ "Other" with 8%; "Do not plan to vote" and "No opinion" with 1%
- ^ Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Archived November 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Lars Mapstead (L) with 1%
- ^ "Undecided" with 3%; "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- ^ "Don't know" with 2%; "Other" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" & "Not sure" with 6%
- ^ "No opinion" with 2%; "Other" & "Do not plan to vote" with 1%
- ^ a b c Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.
- ^ The boundaries of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district have since changed due to redistricting.
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Cheryl Hines has publicly condemned a statement made by her husband Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at a rally on Sunday, in which the environmental lawyer and conspiracy theorist likened COVID regulations to the Holocaust.
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Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer, is a leading vaccine skeptic and purveyor of conspiracy theories who has leaned heavily on misinformation as he mounts his long-shot 2024 campaign for the Democratic nomination.
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- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Forbes/HarrisX
- ^ Activote
- ^ Survey USA
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- ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
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- ^ a b Lord Ashcroft
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto167was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ a b Cygnal (R)
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto173was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Wall Street Journal
- ^ a b CBS News/YouGov
- ^ a b New York Times/Siena College
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ a b Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research
- ^ a b c Harvard/Harris
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auto185was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ a b Cite error: The named reference
auto27was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Data for Progress (D)
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Leger/New York Post
- ^ a b I&I/TIPP
- ^ a b New York Times/Siena College
- ^ a b Leger/New York Post
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ a b Cite error: The named reference
auto121was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ CBS News/YouGov
- ^ a b ActiVote
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b Fox News
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ NPR/PBS
- ^ a b c d e f Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ CBS News/YouGov
- ^ a b Cygnal (R)
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ ActiVote
- ^ Navigator Research
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Survey Monkey/The 19th
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ a b I&I/TIPP
- ^ a b Leger/The Canadian Press
- ^ NPR/PBS
- ^ a b McLaughlin & Associates
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ a b ActiVote
- ^ a b Quinnipiac University
- ^ a b Harvard-Harris
- ^ a b Cygnal (R)
- ^ a b Echelon Insights
- ^ Marquette Law University
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ Fox News
- ^ a b Ipsos
- ^ RMG Research
- ^ a b I&I/TIPP
- ^ a b Data for Progress (D)/Zeteo
- ^ KFF
- ^ ABC News
- ^ a b ActiVote
- ^ a b Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research
- ^ a b Leger/The Canadian Press
- ^ a b c HarrisX/Harris
- ^ NPR/PBS
- ^ a b CNN/SSRS
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ John Zogby Strategies
- ^ University of North Florida
- ^ a b Marist College
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ NBC News
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ a b Echelon Insights
- ^ New York Times/Siena College
- ^ a b ActiVote
- ^ I&I/TIPP
- ^ RMG Research
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b Data for Progress (D)
- ^ a b NPR/PBS
- ^ Marquette Law School
- ^ Forbes/HarrisX
- ^ Fox News
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ ActiVote
- ^ HarrisX/Harris
- ^ a b The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research
- ^ Grinnell College
- ^ a b Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ Yahoo! News/YouGov
- ^ Forbes/HarrisX
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ I&I/TIPP
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ a b c Quinnipiac University
- ^ Marquette University
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ YouGov
- ^ Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research
- ^ I&I/TIPP
- ^ NPR/PBS
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Harvard-Harris
- ^ The Messenger/HarrisX
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ CBS News
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b c Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Ipsos/With Honor PAC
- ^ I&I/TIPP
- ^ Noble Predictive Insights
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ ActiVote
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto233was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ a b c Quinnipiac University
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ New York Times/Siena College
- ^ New York Times/Siena College
- ^ Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News
- ^ The Economist/YouGov Poll
- ^ Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies/CNBC
- ^ Clarity Campaign Labs
- ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b Cygnal (R)
- ^ Marist College/NPR/PBS NewsHour
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ a b SSRS/CNN
- ^ The Economist/YouGov Poll
- ^ a b HarrisX
- ^ YouGov
- ^ Leger
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Harris X/The Messenger
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ NBC News
- ^ a b c Cite error: The named reference
auto37was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo! News
- ^ a b Quinnipiac University
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Rasmussen Reports (R)
- ^ I&I/TIPP
- ^ CBS News/YouGov
- ^ SSRS/CNN
- ^ a b HarrisX/The Messenger
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ a b American Pulse Research & Polling
- ^ Quinnipiac
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ a b USA Today/Suffolk University
- ^ a b Harvard Harris
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Yahoo/YouGov
- ^ Hart Research Associates/Public Opinions Strategies/CNBC
- ^ Grinnell College
- ^ NPR/PBS/Marist College
- ^ a b Fox News
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Marquette University
- ^ a b c Morning Consult
- ^ NBC News
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ CNN/SSRS
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Marist College
- ^ Noble Predictive Insights/The Center Square
- ^ Big Village
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Marquette University
- ^ a b Morning Consult
- ^ HarrisX/The Messenger
- ^ HarrisX/The Messenger
- ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ NBC News
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ YouGov
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Quinnipiac University
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auto139was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Marquette University
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto235was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Premise
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u Morning Consult
- ^ WPA Intelligence
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ ABC News/The Washington Post
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto23was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Premise
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ YouGov/The Economist
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto28was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov
- ^ Premise
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Quinnipiac University
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auto189was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Marquette University
- ^ Premise
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto31was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto138was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Wick Insights
- ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ Premise
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto243was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Susquehanna
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Echelon Insights
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auto21was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Morning Consult
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- ^ Ipsos/Reuters
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auto112was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto66was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ a b Emerson College
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Marquette University
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- ^ WPA Intelligence
- ^ Data for Progress
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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- ^ Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
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- ^ Marquette University
- ^ Echelon Insights
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auto24was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Léger
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
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- ^ Morning Consult
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auto238was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Benenson Strategy Group
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
- ^ Suffolk University
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- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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- ^ John Zogby Strategies
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- ^ ABC News/The Washington Post
- ^ Premise
- ^ Echelon Insights
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- ^ Siena College/The New York Times
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- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Premise
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- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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auto30was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ University of Massachusetts Lowell
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto94was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ NewsNation
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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- ^ Cite error: The named reference
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auto174was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Emerson College
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto35was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Marquette Law School Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto100was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto98was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto159was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ "PMC/John Bolton Super Pac". Archived from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved March 4, 2023.
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
- ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto93was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Harvard/Harris
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Wall Street Journal
- ^ Echelon Insights [permanent dead link]
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto134was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto49was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Marquette Law School Archived November 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Suffolk University
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Harvard/Harris
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Selzer and Company/Grinnell College
- ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto122was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
auto169was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ "PMC/John Bolton Super Pac" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on July 19, 2021. Retrieved March 4, 2023.
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
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- ^ Ipsos/Reuters
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- ^ Wall Street Journal
- ^ USA Today/Suffolk University
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Marist College
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auto168was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ AtlasIntel/CNN Brazil
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ New York Post/YouGov
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Fox News
- ^ USA Today
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ ABC News/Ipsos
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies/NBC News
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ NY Times/Siena
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ I&I\TIPP
- ^ The Economist/YouGov
- ^ Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ Patriot Polling
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
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auto72was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Change Research (D)
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ Harvard/Harris
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Sienna College
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ a b Quinnipiac University
- ^ Redfield & Wilton
- ^ Susquehanna
- ^ McLaughlin and Associates
- ^ USA Today/Suffolk University
- ^ Yahoo News/YouGov
- ^ NPR/PBS/Marist
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Reuters/Ipsos
- ^ American Values
- ^ The Wall Street Journal
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ McLaughlin & Associates
- ^ Echelon Insights
- ^ Big Village
- ^ Big Village
- ^ Big Village
- ^ HarrisX/The Messenger
- ^ Big Village
- ^ CNN/SSRS
- ^ McLaughlin and Associates (R)
- ^ Harris X/The Messenger
- ^ Harvard/Harris X
- ^ Zogby Analytics
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