2024 United States presidential election in Georgia
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| Elections in Georgia |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Georgia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Georgia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Georgia has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which it neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Georgia is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.[2]
Despite being located in the conservative Bible Belt and Deep South regions, Georgia has become competitive since the start of the 2020s and is considered as purple to slightly red state today, after having been a moderately red state in the late 2000s going through the 2010s. The last Republican presidential candidate to win Georgia by double digits, and the only one to win the state more than once, was fellow Southerner George W. Bush. This leftward shift is mainly attributed to the rapid population growth that the progressive and diverse Atlanta metro, which holds much of the state's population, has experienced in the 21st century, including an influx of African Americans, Asian Americans, Latinos and progressive Whites. In 2020, Joe Biden very narrowly carried the state by 0.23%, making Georgia the closest state that election and making Biden the first Democrat since Southerner Bill Clinton in 1992 to win the state's electoral votes, and the first non-Southern Democrat to do so since John F. Kennedy in 1960.
Incumbent President Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3] If he carries the state once more, he will become the first Democratic presidential candidate since favorite son Jimmy Carter in 1980 to carry the state in two consecutive presidential elections. This race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even to very slightly right partisan lean at the federal level and despite the continued GOP lean at the state level, but most polls show Trump to be at least a slight favorite to win. Joe Biden has not led a poll in the state since May of 2023. Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in late February.[4]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Georgia Democratic primary was held on March 12, 2024.[5]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 272,363 | 93.1% | 108 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 8,569 | 2.9% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 5,205 | 1.8% | |||
| Blank ballots | 6,429 | 2.2% | |||
| Overvotes | 2 | <0.1% | |||
| Total: | 292,568 | 100.00% | 108 | 16 | 124 |
Republican primary
The Georgia Republican primary was held on March 12, 2024.[7]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 497,594 | 84.49% | 59 | 0 | 59 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 77,902 | 13.23% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 7,457 | 1.27% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 2,054 | 0.35% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Scott (withdrawn) | 1,398 | 0.24% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,244 | 0.21% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 383 | 0.07% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 377 | 0.06% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Stuckenberg | 243 | 0.04% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Burgum (withdrawn) | 161 | 0.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Perry Johnson (withdrawn) | 134 | 0.02% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 588,947 | 100.00% | 59 | 0 | 59 |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[9] | Tossup | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[10] | Tossup | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Tossup | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Tossup | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[13] | Tilt R (flip) | May 23, 2024 |
| CNN[14] | Lean R (flip) | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[15] | Lean R (flip) | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[16] | Tossup | June 11, 2024 |
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | May 30 – June 3, 2024 | 1,203 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Prime Group[A] | May 9–16, 2024 | 470 (RV) | – | 49% | 51% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 604 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 49% | 12% |
| 604 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 41% | 50% | 9% | ||
| North Star Opinion Research[B] | May 1–5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 49% | 12% |
| Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 51% | – |
| Fox News | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,128 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[C] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 52% | 6% |
| Marist College | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,177 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 51% | 2% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–12, 2024 | 788 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| CBS News/YouGov | March 4–11, 2024 | 1,133 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 51% | 1% |
| Emerson College | March 5–7, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 52% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Fox News | January 26–30, 2024 | 1,119 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 51% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 798 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Atlanta Journal-Constitution | January 3–11, 2024 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 45% | 18% |
| CNN/SSRS | November 30 – December 7, 2023 | 1,068 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| J.L. Partners | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 48% | 11% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 47% | 14% |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs[D] | October 30 – November 3, 2023 | 1,002 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 629 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Zogby Analytics | October 9–12, 2023 | 628 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 51% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 761 (LV) | – | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | September 8–11, 2023 | 1,061 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 47% | – |
| Prime Group[E] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 48% | 52% | – |
| 500 (RV) | – | 36% | 45% | 19%[b] | ||
| Cygnal (R)[F] | June 5–7, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 42% | 17% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 15–17, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 25–27, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Emerson College | November 28–30, 2022 | 888 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | November 18–28, 2022 | 1,300 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 43% | 7% |
| Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 579 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 52% | 5% |
| Emerson College | October 28–31, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | October 23–24, 2022 | 1,053 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 47% | 14% |
| Emerson College | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 751 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Emerson College | August 28–29, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 51% | 3% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[G] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
| East Carolina University | June 6–9, 2022 | 868 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | March 2–8, 2022 | 662 (V) | ± 3.9% | 36% | 50% | 14% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[H] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | May 30 – June 3, 2024 | 1,203 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 37% | 43% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 7%[c] |
| Prime Group[A] | May 9–16, 2024 | 470 (RV) | – | 41% | 42% | 11% | 5% | 1% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 44% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 42% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 604 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 31% | 39% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 20%[d] |
| 604 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 34% | 42% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 16%[e] | ||
| Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 45% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Fox News | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,128 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 46% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 38% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 16% |
| Emerson College | March 5–7, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 44% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–12, 2024 | 788 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 45% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| Fox News | January 26–30, 2024 | 1,119 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 45% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 798 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 44% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 44% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 10% |
| J.L. Partners/Daily Mail | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 10%[f] |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Star Opinion Research[B] | May 1–5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 41% | 13% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 2–4, 2024 | 610 (LV) | – | 38% | 43% | 5% | 14% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | March 14–17, 2024 | 760 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | 6% | 9% |
| Marist College | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,177 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 45% | 14% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | December 28–30, 2023 | 953 (LV) | – | 34% | 42% | 8% | 16% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 746 (LV) | – | 35% | 45% | 7% | 14% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 629 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 29% | 36% | 24% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 761 (LV) | – | 38% | 41% | 8% | 13% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS | November 30 – December 7, 2023 | 1068 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 34% | 42% | 15% | 6% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 34% | 43% | 10% | 1% | 12% |
| Zogby Analytics | October 9–12, 2023 | 628 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 36% | 44% | 15% | 5% | – |
Hypothetical polling
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 629 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 51% | 17% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS | November 30 – December 7, 2023 | 1,068 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs[D] | October 30 – November 3, 2023 | 1,002 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 629 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 746 (LV) | – | 35% | 27% | 17% | 5% | 15% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS | November 30 – December 7, 2023 | 1,068 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs[D] | October 30 – November 3, 2023 | 1,002 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 629 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 15–17, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | – |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 25–27, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| Emerson College | November 28–30, 2022 | 888 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | November 18–28, 2022 | 1,300 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 751 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 746 (LV) | – | 36% | 34% | 14% | 4% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Mike Pence Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 15–17, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 43% | – |
- Joe Biden vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[F] | June 5–7, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 38% | 48% | 14% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Georgia
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
- ^ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Hardworking Americans PAC
- ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ Gellman, Barton (July 29, 2022). "How Six States Could Overturn the 2024 Election". The Atlantic. Retrieved August 6, 2022.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Pellish, Aaron (February 27, 2024). "Super PAC supporting RFK Jr. says it has gathered enough signatures to put him on ballot in Arizona, Georgia | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ^ "Georgia Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
- ^ "2024 PRES PREF PRIMARY ELECTION". Varun's Live Election Maps. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
- ^ "Georgia Republican Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
- ^ "Georgia Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
