2024 Iranian presidential election
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Early presidential elections in Iran will be held on 28 June 2024[1] following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on 19 May.[2]
Background
On 19 May 2024, Raisi was returning from a trip to the Iran-Azerbaijan border to inaugurate a hydroelectric complex at the Giz Galasi reservoir alongside the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev.[3] During their journey, the helicopter carrying him and seven other passengers and crew[4] crashed at approximately 13:30 IRST (UTC+03:30) near the city of Varzaqan in the province of East Azerbaijan. Heavy fog affected search-and-rescue conditions, but by 20:39, Iranian forces were near the crash.[5] Later that day, the wreckage of the helicopter was located,[6] with everyone on board found dead. This led to First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber becoming the acting president according to Article 131 of the Constitution.[7]
Electoral system
The president of Iran is usually elected every four years by a "direct vote of the people", as set out by Article 114 of the Iranian Constitution,[7] which means that a presidential election should have taken place on or before 18 June 2025, but due to the death of the president, it will be held earlier. It is the country's highest directly elected official, the chief of the executive branch, and the second most important position after the Supreme Leader. Under Iran's political system, the Supreme Leader holds much more power than the President.[8] The minimum voting age is 18.
According to the Islamic Republic of Iran's constitution, any Iranian citizen who believes in Shia Islam, is loyal to the Constitution, the ideology of Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist and the Islamic Republic can participate in election as a presidential candidate. An institution called the Election Monitoring Agency (EMA), managed by the Guardian Council, vets registered candidates and selects a handful to run in the election.[9]
The Guardian Council does not publicly announce the reason for rejections of particular candidates, although those reasons are privately explained to each candidate. Women are not constitutionally restricted from running; however, all women who have registered as candidates have been excluded from standing for election by the Guardian Council,[10][11] although the council has officially denied rejecting a woman's candidacy because of her gender.[12]
Those approved by the Guardian Council are put to a public vote. The winner is the candidate who receives a majority (50% plus one) of votes. If no candidate receives enough votes, another election is held between the two candidates with the most votes the following Friday.[13] Iranians who voted during the election receive a stamp that indicate so on their birth certificates.[14]
According to the constitution, once the result is known, the Supreme Leader must sign the decree of the elected president, and if he refuses to sign, the elected president will not assume the presidency. So far, Supreme Leaders have always signed the decree of the elected president.[15][16] After that, the elected president must recite and sign an oath in a session of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, in the presence of the members of the Guardian Council and the head of the Supreme Court. In the Oath, the elected president must swear that he will guard the official religion (Islam), protect the Constitution and the Islamic Republic, and that he will dedicate himself to the service of the nation, its people, and its religion (among other things).[13]
Voters are required to present both birth certificates and national identity cards.[17]
The Ministry of Intelligence warned that presidential nominees were under constant monitoring.[18]
Mail in voting
Voting for overseas Iranians will be held in 250 locations worldwide.[19]
Dates
Following the announcement of Raisi's death on 20 May, authorities announced that voting would be held on 28 June.[1] Registration of candidates began on 30 May and ran until 3 June,[20] while campaigning would last from 12 June until 27 June.[1]
Candidates
The registration to run for presidency started on 30 May and ended on 3 June. A total of 80 people filed their candidacies for president, among them four women, mostly conservatives and ultra conservatives.[21][22] The final list of candidates was released by the Guardian Council on 9 June.[23] Those rejected by the council are not allowed to protest the rejection.[24]
Sixteen members of the government sent the Guardian Council a letter and demanded the council approve Esmaeili, who is the Minister of Islamic culture and guidance.[25]
Applied
Rejected
The applications of least 30 people who registered their candidacies on 30 May were rejected due to failure to meet the "basic conditions for qualification".[43] A total of 74 aspirants had their candidacies rejected by the Guardian Council.[23] These included all four women who applied to run in the election.[44]
Approved
Six candidates were allowed by the Guardian Council to run for president, namely Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Saeed Jalili, Masoud Pezeshkian, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi and Alireza Zakani.[23]
Campaign
In a speech on 3 June, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told candidates not to attack each other and expressed his preference for a revolutionary president.[45]
Most candidates have centered their platforms on social welfare and improvement of living conditions.[46][47][48][49][50][excessive citations]
The Iranian regime gave 20 gigabytes of free internet data for 30 days to mobile phones to promote information regarding the election.[51]
Principlists
Saeed Jalili of the Front of Islamic Revolution Stability is running for president for the fourth time, formerly Minister of Foreign relations during JCPOA negotiations, he has been part of the shadow government the last 10 years.[52] He has advertised that he has a Saipa Pride car and a 125 m house.[53][54] He has raised more than 1 billion toman in donations.[55]
Donya-e-Eqtesad reported that in a meeting between Vice President Mohammed Mokhber, IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaei and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf,[when?] they decided that Ghalibaf should run for president.[56][57]
This is the fourth time Qalibaf is running for president.
Ghalibaf has promised to reduce the number of Afghan immigrants.[58]
Reformists Front
Of the six candidates confirmed by the Guardian Council, Masoud Pezeshkian is regarded to be the only one representing moderates and reformists.[23]
Debates
IRIB will exclusively hold and broadcast debates.[59][60] The IRIB and the Election Office warned candidates against ruining the country's public image.[61][62]
Documentaries will be also produced by IRIB for nominees.[63] The government also banned displaying images of Ali Khamenei and his predecessor as Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.[64]
؟ is the debate moderator.[65]
Opinion polling
Fieldwork date | Pollster | Sample size |
Margin of error | Ahmadinejad | Jalili | Zarif | Mokhber | Ghalibaf | Fattah | Pezeshkian | Jahromi | Larijani | Zakani | Bazrpash | None | I don't know | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9 June | Six candidates confirmed: Saeed Jalili, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Alireza Zakani, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, Masoud Pezeshkian, Mostafa Pourmohammadi | ||||||||||||||||
30 May | Beginning of registration | ||||||||||||||||
28–29 May | meta /Danishgah Imam Sadiq | 1,100 | - | 23.7% | 20.7% | 17.7% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 6.7% | - | 3.0% |
The Iranian Students Polling Agency predicted a turnout of 44.4% of people.[66][67] According to a poll conducted between 26 and 29 May 2024 by the Majlis Research Center, the voter turnout is predicted to be over 53%.[68] This number is expected to increase as the election draws near.[69]
Polling conducted by Ministry of Islamic culture and guidance predicted %29.8 participation in Tehran.[70]
See also
References
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