2024 United States presidential election in Nevada
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| Elections in Nevada |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Nevada voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Nevada is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024, although no Republican presidential nominee has won Nevada since George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2004. Except in 2008, the wins were always in single digits for Democrats; Obama won by less than 7% in 2012 and Trump lost by less than 2.5% in both 2016 and 2020.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in March.[3]
Despite Trump not carrying Nevada in either of his two presidential campaigns, polling in the state has shown Trump in a strong position to win the state whcih would be the first time a Republican has done so since 2004. Biden has not led Trump in a since October of 2023.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 119,758 | 89.3% | 36 | 36 | |
| None of These Candidates | 7,448 | 5.6% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 4,101 | 3.1% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 811 | 0.6% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 530 | 0.4% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 315 | 0.2% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 264 | 0.2% | |||
| John Haywood | 241 | 0.2% | |||
| Stephen Lyons | 147 | 0.1% | |||
| Superpayaseria Crystalroc | 133 | 0.1% | |||
| Donald Picard | 124 | 0.1% | |||
| Brent Foutz | 93 | 0.1% | |||
| Stephen Alan Leon | 89 | 0.1% | |||
| Mark R. Prascak | 33 | <0.1% | |||
| Total: | 134,087 | 100% | 36 | 13 | 49 |
Republican nominating contests
Although the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, the state Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary will not be included in determining delegate allocation.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| None of These Candidates[6] | 50,763 | 63.26% |
| Nikki Haley | 24,583 | 30.63% |
| Mike Pence (withdrawn) | 3,091 | 3.85% |
| Tim Scott (withdrawn) | 1,081 | 1.35% |
| John Anthony Castro | 270 | 0.34% |
| Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn) | 200 | 0.25% |
| Donald Kjornes | 166 | 0.21% |
| Heath V. Fulkerson | 95 | 0.12% |
| Total: | 80,249 | 100.00% |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 59,982 | 99.11% | 25 | 1[a] | 26 |
| Ryan Binkley | 540 | 0.89% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 60,522 | 100.00% | 25 | 1 | 26 |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[8] | Tossup | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Tossup | May 9, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Tossup | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Tossup | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[12] | Tilt R (flip) | May 23, 2024 |
| CNN[13] | Lean R (flip) | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[14] | Lean R (flip) | July 7, 2024 |
| 538[15] | Tossup | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[16] | Tossup | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | July 1–5, 2024 | 452 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| National Public Affairs | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 49% | 12%[c] |
| Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50%[d] | 50% | – | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[A] | June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Fox News | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,069 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| The Tyson Group[B] | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| 494 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 51% | 6% | ||
| Prime Group[C] | May 9–16, 2024 | 468 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 50% | 12% |
| 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 51% | 11% | ||
| Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 51% | 6% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[D] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.8% | 44% | 51% | 5% |
| Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
| Emerson College | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | December 3–7, 2023 | (RVs) | – | 40% | 44% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 437 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 46% | 14% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 52% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| CNN | September 29 – October 3, 2023 | 1,251 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Vote TXT | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 41% | 48% | 11% |
| Prime Group[E] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| 500 (RV) | – | 39% | 39% | 22%[e] | ||
| Noble Predictive Insights | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | November 8–9, 2022 | 679 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[F] | October 13–17, 2022 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 49% | 14% |
| Emerson College | September 8–10, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Emerson College | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | March 21–24, 2022 | 671 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | July 1–5, 2024 | 452 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 45% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 8%[f] |
| National Public Affairs | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Fox News | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,069 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| The Tyson Group[G] | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| Prime Group[C] | May 9–16, 2024 | 468 (RV) | – | 43% | 44% | 10% | 3% | 0% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 44% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 35% | 43% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 27% | 41% | 12% | 0% | 2% | 18%[g] |
| 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 30% | 44% | 11% | 0% | 1% | 14%[g] | ||
| Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 34% | 48% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 37% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 11%[g] |
| Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 36% | 42% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 40% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 44% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 9% |
| Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 34% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 31% | 43% | 12% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| Emerson College | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 Insights[H] | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 37% | 40% | 8% | 15% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[A] | June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 44% | 10% | 9% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 44% | 9% | 7% |
| 494 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 46% | 8% | 6% | ||
| Iron Light Intelligence[I] | May 17–21, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 37% | 15% | 14% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 38% | 23% | 8% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 437 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 35% | 39% | 11% | 1% | 14% |
Hypothetical polling
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 48% | 13% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 49% | 19% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 37% | 46% | 17% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Vote TXT | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 36% | 46% | 17% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 44% | 10% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 42% | 22% |
| Emerson College | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 38% | 43% | 19% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in Nevada
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- ^ If a candidate wins all of Nevada's delegates, the NRP chair is automatically unbound. He has pledged his support to Trump.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
- ^ a b c With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ No Labels candidate
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ a b c Lars Mapstead (L) with 2%
- Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by Capitol Resource Institute
- ^ Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
- ^ Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
- ^ Poll commissioned by League of American Workers
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ Dorn, Sara. "Why RFK Jr. Could Hurt Biden Against Trump—As He Gains Ballot Access In Key Swing State". Forbes. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
- ^ "Silver State 2024 Election Results - Presidential Preference Primary". Secretary of State of Nevada. Retrieved February 6, 2024.
- ^ "Silver State 2024 Presidential Preference Primary Election Results". Secretary of State of Nevada. February 6, 2024. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
- ^ Jackson, Hugh (January 21, 2024). "Nikki Haley: Second to none?". The Nevada Current. Retrieved January 25, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Caucus". Nevada Republican Party. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved July 8, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
