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2020 United States presidential election in Idaho

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Idaho
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout81.2% (of registered voters) Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 554,119 287,021
Percentage 63.89% 33.09%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

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The 2020 United States presidential election in Idaho was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Idaho voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Idaho has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Trump easily carried Idaho on Election Day, winning 63.9% of the vote to Biden’s 33.1%. Trump's percentage was higher than the 59.2% he received in 2016 due to the lack of third-party voters (namely Evan McMullin of neighboring Utah), but his margin of victory slightly declined, shrinking from 31.8% in 2016 to 30.8% in 2020.

Prior to the election, all news organizations expected Trump to win the state handily. Idaho is one of the most staunchly Republican states in the nation, and has not backed a Democrat for President since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson very narrowly carried the state amidst a national landslide.

Trump carried 41 of the state's 44 counties. Biden won Blaine County, home to Sun Valley and several other prime ski resorts; Latah County, home to the college town of Moscow; and flipped Teton County (which had not been won by the Democratic Party since Barack Obama won it in 2008), adjacent to Teton County, Wyoming. Although he did not carry the state's most populous county, Ada County, home to the rapidly growing state capital Boise, which no Democrat has carried since Franklin D. Roosevelt's 1936 landslide, Biden slightly improved on Barack Obama's 2008 result and lost Ada by less than four points. Biden's result of 46.4% and his margin of loss in the county were the highest and lowest for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1940, when Roosevelt won 49% of the county's vote, consequently losing by less than two points.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Idaho came from white voters, especially those in rural areas, who comprised 91% of the electorate and backed Trump by 64%–32%. Trump also received strong support from Caucasian Protestants, who backed him with 71% of their vote.[4]

Primary elections

The primary elections were on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary

This section is transcluded from 2020 Idaho Republican presidential primary. (edit | history)

Incumbent United States President Donald Trump was challenged by five candidates: businessman and perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente of California, entrepreneur and investor Bob Ely of Massachusetts, entrepreneur and attorney Matthew Matern of Louisiana, former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Walsh withdrew from the race prior to the primary.

2020 Idaho Republican presidential primary[5][6]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 112,373 94.46% 32
Bill Weld 2,486 2.09% 0
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 2,341 1.97% 0
Matthew Matern 647 0.54% 0
Rocky De La Fuente 637 0.54% 0
Bob Ely 474 0.40% 0
Total 118,311 100% 32

Democratic primary

This section is transcluded from 2020 Idaho Democratic presidential primary. (edit | history)

Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Tulsi Gabbard were the major declared candidates.[7][8][9]

Results by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Sanders—40–50%
  Sanders—50–60%
  Tie—30–40%
2020 Idaho Democratic presidential primary[10]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[11]
Joe Biden 53,151 48.92 12
Bernie Sanders 46,114 42.44 8
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[a] 2,878 2.65
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[a] 2,612 2.40
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[b] 1,426 1.31
Tulsi Gabbard 876 0.81
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[b] 774 0.71
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 310 0.29
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[b] 112 0.10
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 91 0.08
John Delaney (withdrawn) 65 0.06
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 57 0.05
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 55 0.05
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 49 0.05
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 19 0.02
Other candidates 60 0.06
Total 108,649 100% 20

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[12] Safe R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[13] Safe R November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Safe R November 3, 2020
Politico[15] Safe R November 3, 2020
RCP[16] Safe R November 3, 2020
Niskanen[17] Safe R November 3, 2020
CNN[18] Safe R November 3, 2020
The Economist[19] Safe R November 3, 2020
CBS News[20] Likely R November 3, 2020
270towin[21] Safe R November 3, 2020
ABC News[22] Safe R November 3, 2020
NPR[23] Likely R November 3, 2020
NBC News[24] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[25] Safe R November 3, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[c] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 38.5% 56.6% 4.9% Trump +18.1

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 909 (LV) ± 4.5% 58%[e] 40% - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 1,799 (LV) – 58% 40% - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 761 (LV) – 64% 35% - – 1%
Spry Strategies/Women's Liberation Front Archived September 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Aug 29 – Sep 1, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 60% 34% - – 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 737 (LV) – 58% 40% - – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 671 (LV) – 63% 35% - – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 266 (LV) – 58% 41% - – 1%

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[26]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence
Republican Party 		Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Democratic Party 		Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party 		Kanye West and Michelle Tidball
Independent 		Brock Pierce and Karla Ballard
Independent 		Don Blankenship and William Mohr
Constitution Party 		Rocky De La Fuente and Darcy Richardson
Independent
Rod Beck
Raul Labrador
Janice McGeachin
Melinda Smyser 		Cherie Buckner-Webb
Maryanne Jordan
Elaine Smith
Mary Lou Reed 		Elizabeth Clark
Dan Karlan
Aaron Mason
Cathy Smith 		Ryan Andrew Fauvell
Julia Hurst
Adriel Martinez
Megan Shoemaker 		Zachary Todd Hanna
Terrel Hill
Christopher Kreighbaum
Ryan Lyden 		Brendan Gomez
David Hartigan
Tony Ullrich
Ray Writz 		Nick Carannante
Tim Guy
Shawn Satterthwaite
Daryl Yandell

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Idaho[27][28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump (incumbent)
Mike Pence (incumbent) 		554,119 63.84% +4.58
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		287,021 33.07% +5.60
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		16,404 1.89% −2.21
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball 		3,632 0.42% +0.42
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard 		2,808 0.32% +0.32
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		1,806 0.22% −0.12
Independent Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson 		1,491 0.17% −0.03
Green Howie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in) 		407 0.05% −1.17
American Solidarity Brian Carroll (write-in)
Amar Patel (write-in) 		163 0.02% N/A
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva (write-in)
Sunil Freeman (write-in) 		49 0.01% N/A
Independent Jade Simmons (write-in)
Claudeliah Roze (write-in) 		21 0.00% N/A
Independent Other
(write-in) 		13 0.00% N/A
Total votes 867,934 100.00%

By county

County[29] Donald Trump
Republican 		Joe Biden
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Ada 130,699 49.98% 120,539 46.10% 10,250 3.92% 10,160 3.88% 261,488
Adams 1,941 75.06% 591 22.85% 54 2.09% 1,350 52.21% 2,586
Bannock 23,331 58.65% 14,682 36.91% 1,770 4.44% 8,649 21.74% 39,783
Bear Lake 2,914 87.88% 350 10.55% 52 1.57% 2,564 77.33% 3,316
Benewah 3,878 77.95% 977 19.64% 120 2.41% 2,901 58.31% 4,975
Bingham 15,295 76.49% 4,124 20.62% 577 2.89% 11,171 55.87% 19,996
Blaine 4,032 30.32% 8,919 67.08% 346 2.60% -4,887 -36.78% 13,297
Boise 3,485 72.27% 1,204 24.97% 133 2.76% 2,281 47.30% 4,822
Bonner 18,369 67.16% 8,310 30.38% 673 2.46% 10,059 36.78% 27,352
Bonneville 37,805 69.97% 14,254 26.38% 1,975 3.65% 23,551 43.59% 54,034
Boundary 4,937 78.15% 1,220 19.31% 160 2.54% 3,717 58.84% 6,317
Butte 1,202 84.95% 188 13.29% 25 1.76% 1,014 71.66% 1,415
Camas 507 75.22% 149 22.11% 18 2.67% 358 53.11% 674
Canyon 61,759 68.27% 25,881 28.61% 2,817 3.12% 35,878 39.66% 90,457
Caribou 2,906 85.07% 431 12.62% 79 2.31% 2,475 72.45% 3,416
Cassia 7,907 82.09% 1,464 15.20% 261 2.71% 6,443 66.89% 9,632
Clark 264 84.89% 41 13.18% 6 1.93% 223 71.71% 311
Clearwater 3,453 78.14% 877 19.85% 89 2.01% 2,576 58.29% 4,419
Custer 2,089 76.27% 603 22.02% 47 1.71% 1,486 54.25% 2,739
Elmore 7,246 70.95% 2,601 25.47% 366 3.58% 4,645 45.48% 10,213
Franklin 5,845 87.71% 657 9.86% 162 2.43% 5,188 77.85% 6,664
Fremont 5,548 82.55% 998 14.85% 175 2.60% 4,550 67.70% 6,721
Gem 7,951 79.65% 1,803 18.06% 229 2.29% 6,148 61.59% 9,983
Gooding 4,659 76.98% 1,256 20.75% 137 2.27% 3,403 56.23% 6,052
Idaho 7,826 81.44% 1,561 16.24% 223 2.32% 6,265 65.20% 9,610
Jefferson 12,099 85.32% 1,661 11.71% 420 2.97% 10,438 73.61% 14,180
Jerome 5,734 73.14% 1,893 24.15% 213 2.71% 3,841 48.99% 7,840
Kootenai 62,837 69.91% 24,312 27.05% 2,729 3.04% 38,525 42.86% 89,878
Latah 9,472 45.96% 10,236 49.67% 902 4.37% -764 -3.61% 20,610
Lemhi 3,592 75.80% 1,032 21.78% 115 2.42% 2,560 54.02% 4,739
Lewis 1,489 79.63% 349 18.66% 32 1.71% 1,140 60.97% 1,870
Lincoln 1,469 75.68% 414 21.33% 58 2.99% 1,055 54.35% 1,941
Madison 13,559 79.12% 2,666 15.56% 912 5.32% 10,893 63.56% 17,137
Minidoka 6,265 78.38% 1,550 19.39% 178 2.23% 4,715 58.99% 7,993
Nez Perce 13,738 65.47% 6,686 31.86% 561 2.67% 7,052 33.61% 20,985
Oneida 2,148 87.60% 249 10.15% 55 2.25% 1,899 77.45% 2,452
Owyhee 3,819 80.52% 816 17.20% 108 2.28% 3,003 63.32% 4,743
Payette 8,862 78.47% 2,161 19.14% 270 2.39% 6,701 59.33% 11,293
Power 2,116 68.57% 865 28.03% 105 3.40% 1,251 40.54% 3,086
Shoshone 4,216 69.70% 1,693 27.99% 140 2.31% 2,523 41.71% 6,049
Teton 2,858 44.92% 3,318 52.15% 186 2.93% -460 -7.23% 6,362
Twin Falls 25,897 70.93% 9,391 25.72% 1,224 3.35% 16,506 45.21% 36,512
Valley 3,947 55.88% 2,976 42.14% 140 1.98% 971 13.74% 7,063
Washington 4,154 77.70% 1,073 20.07% 119 2.23% 3,081 57.63% 5,346
Totals 554,119 63.67% 287,021 32.98% 29,211 3.25% 267,098 30.69% 870,351
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won both congressional districts.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 67.1% 30.1% Russ Fulcher
2nd 60.1% 36.6% Mike Simpson

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b Candidate withdrew during early voting following Super Tuesday.
  2. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during early voting before Super Tuesday.
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size

References

  1. ^ "2020 General Election". State of Idaho Elections Department. Retrieved November 27, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Idaho Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ "Official Election Results". Secretary of State of Idaho. June 2, 2020. Retrieved November 28, 2020.
  6. ^ "Idaho Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  7. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  8. ^ Zhou, Li (January 21, 2019). "Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign". Vox. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  9. ^ Detrow, Scott (February 1, 2019). "Cory Booker Makes It Official: He's Running For President In 2020". NPR. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  10. ^ "2020 Presidential Primary – OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS". Idaho Elections Department. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
  11. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Idaho Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
  12. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  16. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  17. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  18. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  19. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  22. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  23. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  24. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  26. ^ "Idaho Certificate of Ascertainment" (PDF). State of Idaho. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 General Election Candidate List". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 General Election Results". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved December 13, 2020.
  29. ^ "2020 General Election Results – Statistics – Idaho Secretary of State".

Further reading

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