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2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election

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For related races, see 2019 United States gubernatorial elections.
2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election
← 2015 November 5, 2019 2023 →
 
Nominee Tate Reeves Jim Hood
Party Republican Democratic
Electoral vote 73 49
Popular vote 459,396 414,368
Percentage 51.91% 46.83%
Reeves:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Hood:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Governor before election

Phil Bryant
Republican

Elected Governor

Tate Reeves
Republican

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The 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2019, to choose the next Governor of Mississippi.[1] Incumbent Governor Phil Bryant was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits. The Democratic Party nominated incumbent Attorney General Jim Hood, the only Democrat holding statewide office in Mississippi; the Republican Party nominated incumbent Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves. In the general election, Reeves defeated Hood by a margin of 5.08%, with Reeves significantly underperforming Trump who won the state by 17 points, 3 years prior.

Background

Situated in the Deep South as a socially conservative Bible Belt state, Mississippi is one of the most Republican states in the country. No Democrat has been elected to the governorship since Ronnie Musgrove in 1999. However, the state's Democratic Attorney General, Jim Hood, who had held his office since 2004 and had yet to lose a statewide election, put the Republicans' winning streak of four elections in a row to the test, as the race became unusually competitive. Reeves defeated Hood in the general election by a margin of 5.1%, making this the closest a Democrat had come to winning a Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999. Hood pulled off the best performance by a Democrat since the 2003 Mississippi gubernatorial election, when fellow Democrat Ronnie Musgrove took 45.81% of the vote.[2] Hood flipped the counties of Chickasaw, Lafayette, Madison, Panola, and Warren, which had all voted for Republican Donald Trump in the 2016 United States presidential election.

Uniquely among the states, the Constitution of Mississippi establishes a sort of electoral college at the state level. For the election of governor. Article 5, Section 140 of the state constitution states that each state House district is assigned an electoral vote, and that a candidate running for governor must receive a majority of electoral votes (essentially, they must win a majority of state House districts) in addition to winning a majority of the popular vote in order to be elected governor.[3] Article 5, Section 141 of the state constitution states that if no candidate wins both a popular and electoral vote majority, the state House of Representatives is assigned to decide the winner, choosing from the two highest popular vote winners.[4] This provision came into play only one time in the state's history; Democratic candidate Ronnie Musgrove in the 1999 gubernatorial election garnered a plurality, but not a majority; the House selected Musgrove.[5]

In the lead-up to the election, controversy emerged over these constitutional provisions establishing a state system of electoral votes, with a federal lawsuit claiming the provisions are racially biased.[6] These provisions were put in place with the 1890 Mississippi Constitution, itself established by the segregationist Redeemers and overturning the Reconstruction-era 1868 Constitution, as part of Jim Crow Era policy to minimize the power of African Americans in politics.[6] Because of this, as well as present gerrymandering that packs African Americans into a small number of districts, the plaintiffs claim the provisions should be struck down on the basis of racial bias.[5]

On 3 November 2020 an amendment was passed removing the electoral college with 79% of the vote.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Tate Reeves
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Representatives
State-wide officials
State legislator
Mayors
Organizations
Individuals
Bill Waller Jr.
State legislators
Individuals

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Foster 		Tate
Reeves 		Bill
Waller Jr. 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon July 24–27, 2019 500 ± 4.5% 13% 41% 31% 15%
Impact Management Group June 10–14, 2019 354 ± 5.3% 9% 50% 19% 28%
Mason-Dixon January 30 – February 1, 2019 400 ± 5.0% 9% 62% – 29%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Lynn
Fitch 		Tate
Reeves 		Undecided
JMC Analytics February 15–17, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 12% 21% 67%
Mason-Dixon December 13–15, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 18% 37% 45%

Results

First round results by county:
  Reeves
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Waller
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Foster
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tate Reeves 187,312 48.9
Republican Bill Waller Jr. 128,010 33.4
Republican Robert Foster 67,758 17.7
Total votes 383,080 100.0

Runoff

Runoff results by county
  Reeves
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Waller
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary runoff results[40]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tate Reeves 179,623 54.1
Republican Bill Waller Jr. 152,201 45.9
Total votes 331,824 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Michael Brown[43]
  • William Bond Compton Jr., candidate for governor of Mississippi in 2007 and 2011, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014, nominee for the Mississippi House of Representatives in the 83rd district in 2015[43]
  • Robert J. Ray[43]
  • Robert Shuler Smith, Hinds County district attorney[44]
  • Gregory Wash[43]
  • Velesha Williams, former director for the Metro Jackson Community Prevention Coalition and former U.S. Army officer[45][10]
  • Albert Wilson, businessman and community organizer[46]

Withdrawn

  • Phillip West, former state representative and former mayor of Natchez (endorsed Jim Hood)[47]

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Hood
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Statewide officials
State legislators

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jim
Hood 		Robert
Shuler Smith 		Undecided
Triumph Campaigns January 29, 2018 2,145 ± 1.8% 36% 34% 30%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jim
Hood 		Chokwe Antar
Lumumba 		Undecided
Triumph Campaigns January 29, 2018 2,145 ± 1.8% 49% 27% 23%

Results

Results by county:
  Hood
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results[49]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jim Hood 208,634 69.0
Democratic Michael Brown 33,247 11.0
Democratic Velesha Williams 20,844 6.9
Democratic Robert Shuler Smith 20,395 6.7
Democratic Robert Ray 5,609 1.8
Democratic William Bond Compton Jr. 5,321 1.8
Democratic Albert Wilson 5,122 1.7
Democratic Gregory Wash 3,218 1.1
Total votes 302,390 100.0

Other candidates

Constitution Party

Declared

  • Bob Hickingbottom[50]

Independents

Declared

  • David Singletary, U.S. Air Force veteran and former hotel owner[51]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Lean R October 15, 2019
Inside Elections[53] Lean R November 8, 2019
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] Lean R November 8, 2019

Debates

Dates Location Hood Reeves Link
October 10, 2019 University of Southern Mississippi
Hattiesburg 		Participant Participant [1]
October 14, 2019 WCBI Studios
Columbus 		Participant Participant [2]

Endorsements

Tate Reeves (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Members of Congress
Statewide officials
State legislators
Mayors
Organizations
Individuals
Jim Hood (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Statewide officials
State legislators
Mayors
Organizations
Individuals

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Tate
Reeves (R) 		Jim
Hood (D) 		David
Singletary (I) 		Bob
Hickingbottom (C) 		Undecided
NBC/Survey Monkey October 8–22, 2019 1,002 (RV) ± 4.7% 47% 40% 7% 2% 3%
Targoz Market Research October 13–20, 2019 384 (LV) – 47% 46% – – 7%
Mason-Dixon October 17–19, 2019 625 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 43% – – 9%
Hickman Analytics October 13–16, 2019 508 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 46% – – –
Hickman Analytics (D)[A] September 22–26, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 45% – – –
Hickman Analytics (D)[A] August 11–15, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 43% – – –
NBC News/SurveyMonkey July 2–16, 2019 1,171 (RV) ± 4.2% 51% 42% – – 6%
Impact Management Group June 10–14, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 36% 4% – 12%
Hickman Analytics (D)[A] May 5–9, 2019 604 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 45% – – –
Mason-Dixon January 30 – February 1, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 44% – – 14%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[B] January 28–30, 2019 600 (RV) ± 3.5% 51% 36% – – 13%
Mason-Dixon April 12–14, 2018 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 39% 44% – – 17%
Chism Strategies/Millsaps College December 15–19, 2017 578 (RV) ± 4.1% 45% 38% – – 18%
Mason-Dixon December 13–15, 2017 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 43% – – 20%
Hypothetical polling
with Tate Reeves, Jim Hood, and Bill Waller Jr.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Tate
Reeves (R) 		Jim
Hood (D) 		Bill
Waller Jr. (I) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon January 30 – February 1, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 40% 9% 13%
with Bill Waller Jr. and Jim Hood
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Waller Jr. (R) 		Jim
Hood (D) 		David
Singletary (I) 		Undecided
NBC News/SurveyMonkey July 2–16, 2019 1,171 (RV) ± 4.2% 53% 41% – 6%
Impact Management Group June 10–14, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 36% 4% 17%

Results

CandidatePartyPopular voteElectoral vote
Votes%Votes%
Tate ReevesRepublican Party459,39651.917359.84
Jim HoodDemocratic Party414,36846.834940.16
David SingletaryIndependent8,5220.96
Bob HickingbottomConstitution Party2,6250.30
Total884,911100.00122100.00
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Reeves won 3 of 4 congressional districts.[69]

District Reeves Hood Representative
1st 59% 40% Trent Kelly
2nd 32% 67% Bennie Thompson
3rd 54% 45% Michael Guest
4th 63% 35% Steven Palazzo

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Jim Hood campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by the Tate Reeves campaign

References

  1. ^ "Mississippi Voter Information Guide" (PDF). State of Mississippi – Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 6, 2018. Retrieved September 6, 2018.
  2. ^ Collins, Sean (November 5, 2019). "Republican Tate Reeves wins a surprisingly close race, becoming Mississippi's next governor". Vox. Retrieved November 6, 2019.
  3. ^ MS Const. art. V, § 140
  4. ^ MS Const. art. V, § 141.
  5. ^ a b Wilson, Reid (June 9, 2019). "Legal fight over Jim Crow-era law upends Mississippi governor race". The Hill. Retrieved October 2, 2019.
  6. ^ a b "Black Voters Sue Over Mississippi's Jim Crow-Era Election Law". NPR. September 24, 2019. Retrieved October 2, 2019.
  7. ^ "Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves announces he is running for governor". WTVA News. Archived from the original on January 3, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  8. ^ "GOP's Reeves officially running for Mississippi governor". WAPT. Associated Press. January 4, 2019.
  9. ^ "Hood, Reeves could headline 2019 governor's race". Mississippi Business Journal. Associated Press. June 26, 2016. Archived from the original on June 25, 2018. Retrieved December 5, 2016.
  10. ^ a b c d e f Pender, Geoff; Ramseth, Luke (December 6, 2018). "List: Who's running for governor, AG and other open seats in Mississippi". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved December 8, 2018.
  11. ^ "Former chief justice Waller to run for Mississippi governor". WREG. Associated Press. February 14, 2019. Retrieved February 14, 2019.
  12. ^ Pittman, Ashton. "Hard-right Conservative 'Farmer Bob' to Announce Run for Governor". www.jacksonfreepress.com. Retrieved December 11, 2018.
  13. ^ "GOP rep set to enter 2019 race for Mississippi governor". thestate. Archived from the original on December 11, 2018. Retrieved December 11, 2018.
  14. ^ "Marx withdraws from 2019 governor's race". www.hubcityspokes.com.
  15. ^ Beveridge, Lici (May 3, 2018). "Republican Petal Mayor Hal Marx will run for governor in 2019". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved May 4, 2018.
  16. ^ Pender, Geoff; Ramseth, Luke; Bologna, Giacomo (January 28, 2019). "Updated: Who's running for governor, AG and other open seats in Mississippi". Clarion Ledger. Retrieved February 12, 2019.
  17. ^ "Lynn Fitch to run for attorney general". The Clarion Ledger.
  18. ^ Pender, Geoff. "2019 Right Around Corner on Political Calendars". Retrieved April 13, 2017.
  19. ^ "Trent Lott for governor, 2019?". Clarionledger.com. Retrieved February 23, 2017.
  20. ^ "Trent Lott not ruling out gubernatorial bid". TheHill.com. May 10, 2015. Retrieved February 23, 2017.
  21. ^ Ramseth, Luke (February 28, 2019). "Chris McDaniel announces decision on run for governor". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
  22. ^ Crawford, Bill (September 3, 2017). "Waller, Randolph rumored as potential Reeves challengers". Retrieved September 15, 2017.
  23. ^ Pender, Geoff (March 1, 2019). "Attorney General race gets surprise, high-profile GOP candidate on qualifying deadline". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved August 6, 2019.
  24. ^ Trump, Donald J. [@realDonaldTrump] (October 26, 2019). "MISSISSIPPI! There is a VERY important election for Governor on November 5th. I need you to get out and VOTE for our Great Republican nominee, @TateReeves. Tate is Strong on Crime, tough on Illegal Immigration, and will protect your Second Amendment..." (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  25. ^ a b Jackson, Courtney Ann (August 21, 2019). "Former Governor Haley Barbour among those supporting Tate Reeves in GOP Gubernatorial runoff". WLBT News. Retrieved November 14, 2019.
  26. ^ a b "Bryant endorses Tate Reeves for Governor". WJTV. Retrieved February 20, 2019.
  27. ^ a b "Reeves wins GOP nod for Mississippi governor". www.politico.com. August 27, 2019. Retrieved November 14, 2019.
  28. ^ a b Bologna, Giacomo (August 15, 2019). "Once enemies, now allies: Chris McDaniel endorses Tate Reeves for Mississippi governor". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved August 27, 2019.
  29. ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Local Mayors Endorse Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves for Governor". WXXV25. Retrieved February 25, 2019.
  30. ^ a b Ulmer, Sarah (June 13, 2019). "Americans for Prosperity Action Endorses Tate Reeves for Governor". Yall Politics. Archived from the original on June 17, 2019. Retrieved August 6, 2019.
  31. ^ a b Ulmer, Sarah (June 3, 2019). "Tate Reeves endorsed by Mississippi Manufacturers Association". Yall Politics. Archived from the original on August 7, 2019. Retrieved August 6, 2019.
  32. ^ a b Ulmer, Sarah (July 22, 2019). "Tate Reeves endorsed by Mississippi Right to Life PAC". Yall Politics. Archived from the original on August 6, 2019. Retrieved August 6, 2019.
  33. ^ a b "NRA Endorses Tate Reeves for Governor of Mississippi". NRA ILA. July 9, 2019. Archived from the original on July 13, 2019. Retrieved July 13, 2019. The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) today announced its endorsement of Tate Reeves for governor in the 2019 Mississippi primary election.
  34. ^ a b Carter, Josh (August 5, 2019). "Mississippi native Brett Favre endorses Tate Reeves for governor". WLBT. Archived from the original on August 6, 2019. Retrieved August 6, 2019.
  35. ^ a b Jake Mangum. "@tatereeves for Mississippi Governor!". Twitter.
  36. ^ "Robert Foster endorses Bill Waller ahead of Mississippi governor primary runoff". Clairon-Ledger. Retrieved August 13, 2019.
  37. ^ "Gubernatorial hopefuls Reeves and Waller reveal newest endorsements". WXXV25. Retrieved May 14, 2019.
  38. ^ a b c d "'I think he's more electable than Tate': Four past GOP chairmen throw support to Waller over Reeves". Mississippi Today. Retrieved July 22, 2019.
  39. ^ "2019 Republican". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 18, 2019. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
  40. ^ "2019 Republican Primary Runoff". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on September 30, 2019. Retrieved September 30, 2019.
  41. ^ "Amid Positive Polls, Jim Hood to Announce Run for Mississippi Governor". Retrieved October 3, 2018.
  42. ^ Lee, Jasmine C. (August 6, 2019). "Mississippi Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved November 14, 2019.
  43. ^ a b c d "Mississippi election 2019: Who's running for governor, other state offices". The Clarion Ledger.
  44. ^ "Embattled DA Robert Shuler Smith running for governor". Hattiesburg American. February 23, 2019. Retrieved February 23, 2019.
  45. ^ Pittman, Ashton (December 3, 2018). "Jackson Woman Joins Dem Race for Governor; State Rep Exploring GOP Race". Jackson Free Press. Retrieved December 4, 2018.
  46. ^ Huffman, Sam (January 11, 2019). "Albert Wilson announces campaign for governor". WJTV.
  47. ^ "Democrat leaves Mississippi governor's race". WTOK. Associated Press. May 31, 2019. Retrieved June 6, 2019.
  48. ^ Ulmer, Sarah (December 3, 2018). "Is the Democratic mayor of Magnolia considering a challenge of Jim Hood in Governor's race?". Y'all Politics. Retrieved December 4, 2018.
  49. ^ "2019 Democratic Primary". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 18, 2019. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
  50. ^ "Bill Crawford — Can lesser knowns keep favored candidates from saving us?". April 7, 2019. Archived from the original on April 15, 2019. Retrieved April 15, 2019.
  51. ^ Ramseth, Luke (May 2, 2019). "He sings karaoke and wears a marijuana suit. He wants to be the next Mississippi governor". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved May 16, 2019.
  52. ^ "2020 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  53. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". www.insideelections.com.
  54. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 Governor". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.
  55. ^ Mike Pence. "Mike Pence on Twitter". Twitter.
  56. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Donald J. Trump on Twitter". Twitter.
  57. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Donald J. Trump on Twitter". Twitter.
  58. ^ Cindy Hyde-Smith. "Cindy Hyde-Smith on Twitter". Twitter.
  59. ^ Reeves, Tate (August 22, 2019). "This race is about conservative values—keeping more of your hard-earned money to provide for your family. I am the only true conservative running for Gov, and the people of DeSoto Co know it. I am honored to have the support of Bruce Prewett, @RepTrentKelly, and so many in NW MS!". Retrieved November 14, 2019.
  60. ^ Roger Wicker. "Roger Wicker on Twitter". Twitter.
  61. ^ Ramseth, Luke. "Jeb Bush headed to North Mississippi for Tate Reeves fundraiser". The Clarion Ledger. Retrieved November 14, 2019.
  62. ^ Bedillion, Caleb (November 5, 2019). "Barack Obama throws support to Jim Hood on election eve". Daily Journal.
  63. ^ Karlin, Sam (June 7, 2019). "Gov. Edwards to attend fundraiser for another Deep South anti-abortion Democrat, Jim Hood". The Advocate. Retrieved November 14, 2019.
  64. ^ "Stacey Abrams passes on 2020 run, turns focus to voter access with Fair Fight". The Washington Times. Retrieved November 14, 2019.
  65. ^ "Jason Shelton: Mayor endorses Jim Hood for governor". Daily Journal. October 21, 2019. Retrieved November 14, 2019.
  66. ^ "DGA Statement On Jim Hood's Primary Victory In Mississippi". Democratic Governors Association. August 7, 2019. Retrieved November 14, 2019.
  67. ^ "Mississippi Association of Educators endorses Jim Hood for governor". September 24, 2019.
  68. ^ DeLisle, Grey (November 5, 2019). "#Beshear in #Kentucky and #Hood in #Mississippi #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica". Twitter.
  69. ^ https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::a1d6a28b-18ed-4481-8ae0-c3deaf673308

Official campaign websites

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