2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico
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| Elections in New Mexico |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Mexico voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A western state in the American Southwest, since gaining statehood, New Mexico has voted for the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election except for 1976 (only backing the losing candidate by 2.47% and 10,271 votes) and in addition to its bellwether status is today a moderately blue state, with Democrats holding all statewide offices since 2019 and Democratic presidential candidates consistently winning the state since 2008. New Mexico's Democratic lean can be largely credited to the state's sizeable Latino population, which in recent years has become a plurality. The state is favored to remain in the Democratic column in 2024.[2]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The New Mexico Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 111,049 | 83.5% | 34 | 34 | |
| Uncommitted | 12,938 | 9.7% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 8,935 | 6.7% | |||
| Total: | 132,922 | 100.0% | 34 | 11 | 45 |
Republican primary
The New Mexico Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 78,999 | 84.5% | |||
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 8,054 | 8.6% | |||
| Uncommitted | 3,130 | 3.3% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 2,428 | 2.6% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 886 | 0.9% | |||
| Total: | 93,497 | 100.00% | 22 | 0 | 22 |
Libertarian primary
The New Mexico Libertarian primary was held on June 6, 2024. 9 days after the 2024 Libertarian National Convention was held.[5]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Lars Mapstead | 432 | 56.5% |
| None of the Above | 332 | 43.5% |
| Total: | 764 | 100.0% |
| Source:[6] | ||
General election
Candidates
The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in New Mexico:[7]
- Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
- Donald Trump, Republican Party
- Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
- Jill Stein, Green Party
- Claudia De la Cruz, Party for Socialism and Liberation
- Laura Ebke, Liberal Party USA
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent (withdrawn)
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[8] | Likely D | June 12, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Likely D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[12] | Solid D | August 18, 2024 |
| CNN[13] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[14] | Likely D | August 20, 2024 |
| 538[15] | Likely D | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[16] | Lean D | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| Emerson College[17] | August 20–22, 2024 | 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 52% | 42% | 6% |
| 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 54%[b] | 46% | – | ||
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[18] | September 6–9, 2024 | 521 (LV) | – | 49% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[19] | August 20–22, 2024 | 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 40% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[20] | August 12–15, 2024 | 592 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | 6% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[21] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 493 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 8% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1892 Polling (R)[22][A] | June 19–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[23][B] | June 13–14, 2024 | 555 (V) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[24] | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[25] | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Emerson College[26] | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Emerson College[27] | September 8–11, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver vs. Randall Terry
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Randall Terry Constitution |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1892 Polling (R)[22][A] | June 19–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[24] | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[25] | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
See also
- United States presidential elections in New Mexico
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
- ^ Poll commissioned by the New Mexico Political Report
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "New Mexico Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
- ^ "New Mexico Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
- ^ "Become Ungovernable". 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
- ^ "Unofficial Results 2024 Primary June 4, 2024". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
- ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved July 5, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "New Mexico 2024: Harris 52%, Trump 42%". Emerson College Polling. August 23, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (6 – 9 September 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. September 10, 2024.
- ^ "New Mexico 2024: Harris 52%, Trump 42%". Emerson College Polling. August 23, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 15 August 2024)". August 19, 2024.
- ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (31 July – 3 August 2024)". August 6, 2024.
- ^ a b "None".
- ^ "Post-primary, Biden leads Trump in NM - NM Political Report". June 18, 2024.
- ^ a b "Biden leads in NM in potential 2024 matchups - NM Political Report". August 28, 2023.
- ^ a b "x.com".
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 31, 2022). "New Mexico 2022: Lujan Grisham and Ronchetti in Dead Heat for Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (September 14, 2022). "New Mexico 2022: Democratic Governor Lujan Grisham Holds Five-Point Lead Over Ronchetti in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
