2024 United States presidential election in Montana
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| Elections in Montana |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]
A sparsely populated Mountain West state, though somewhat less conservative than its neighboring Great Plains states, Montana hasn't been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton did so in 1992. The state has not been competitive at the presidential level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. It has been carried by Republicans by double digits since 2012. Donald Trump won Montana by 20.4% and 16.4% in 2016 and 2020 respectively. Considered a strongly red state, Montana is favored to be carried safely by Trump in 2024.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 94,587 | 91.1% | 20 | 20 | |
| No preference | 9,285 | 8.9% | |||
| Total: | 103,872 | 100.0% | 20 | 5 | 25 |
Republican primary
The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 165,678 | 90.9% | |||
| No Preference | 16,570 | 9.1% | |||
| Total: | 182,248 | 100.00% | 31 | 0 | 31 |
Green primary
The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Preference | 495 | 100.00% | 4 | ||
| Total: | 495 | 100.00% | 4 | ||
| Source:[4] | |||||
General election
Candidates
The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Montana:[5]
- Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
- Donald Trump, Republican Party
- Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
- Jill Stein, Green Party
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent(withdrawn)
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[6] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[7] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] | Safe R | May 30, 2023 |
| CNalysis[10] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[11] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[12] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[13] | Likely R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[14] | Likely R | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[15][A] |
August 25–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 41% | 3% |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[16][B] | August 13–20, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 58% | 35% | 7% |
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
| Emerson College[17] | August 5–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | 3.0% | 55% | 40% | 5% |
| 58%[b] | 43% | – | ||||
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[16][B] | August 13–20, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 58% | 31% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[18][C] | August 10–12, 2024 | 538 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College[17] | August 5–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 39% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG Research[19][D] | August 6–14, 2024 | 540 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 57% | 39% | 2% | 2% |
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group (R)[20] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 570 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 36% | 8% |
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[21][E] | June 22–26, 2024 | 649 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 35% | 14%[c] |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[22][F] | June 11–13, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 57% | 37% | 6% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[23][G] | June 3–5, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 36% | 10% |
| Emerson College[24][H] | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 35% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[25][C] | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Emerson College[26] | October 1–4, 2023 | 447 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[27] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 54% | 37% | 9% |
| J.L. Partners[28] | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[29] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 320 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[24][H] | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[27] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 51% | 30% | 7% | 12% |
| 49% | 28% | 4% | 19%[d] |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
See also
- United States presidential elections in Montana
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by KULR-TV
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- ^ Poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republican candidates
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
- ^ Poll conducted by More Jobs, Less Government which supports Republican candidates
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "Montana Presidential Primary". AP News. July 3, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
- ^ "Montana Presidential Primary". AP News. July 3, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Primary Election - June 4, 2024". Retrieved June 5, 2024.
- ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ Bridges, Kate (September 5, 2024). "Sheehy Leads Tester by 16 Points in Montana Senate Race". AARP.
- ^ a b "Toplines - NUSA August 2024 Montana". Rasmussen Reports. August 30, 2024.
- ^ a b "Montana 2024 Poll: Trump 55%, Harris 40%". Emerson College Polling. August 8, 2024.
- ^ "Poll shows strong Montana support for Trump over Harris". KULR8. August 14, 2024.
- ^ "Montana Senate: Tester 49% Sheehy 44%". Napolitan Institute. August 15, 2024.
- ^ Pearce, Tim (July 3, 2024). "Exclusive: Battleground Poll Shows Biden Tanking In Key States After Disastrous Debate". The Daily Wire.
- ^ Rogers, John (June 27, 2024). "June 2024 Survey of Likely Montana Voters". X.
- ^ "Montana Statewide Poll" (PDF). Public Opinion Strategies. June 13, 2024.
- ^ Fabrizio, Tony; Tunis, Travis (June 17, 2024). "MONTANA WANTS TO VOTE GOP – SHEEHY LEADS TESTER". Politico.
- ^ a b "Montana 2024 Poll: U.S. Senate Tester 44%, Sheehy 42%". Emerson College Polling. March 6, 2024.
- ^ Lewis, Megan (February 19, 2024). "Poll shows Trump winning Montana over Biden with more support than 2020". Montana Right Now.
- ^ "Montana 2024 Poll: Democratic Senator Jon Tester Holds Narrow Lead Over Republican Challenger Tim Sheehy". Emerson College Polling. October 17, 2023.
- ^ a b "Pulse of the Nation Report - Voter Attitudes and Concerns Driven by High Costs" (PDF). Future Majority. October 11, 2023.
- ^ a b "Montana - Prepared by J.L. Partners" (PDF). Squarespace. August 31, 2023.
- ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
