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2024 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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2024 United States House of Representatives election ratings
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The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections will be held November 5, 2024, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2024 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.

Election ratings

Latest published ratings for competitive seats

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The 95 seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. Of the remaining 340 seats, 166 are considered "safe" Democratic, and 173 "safe" Republican. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

In total there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 218 are needed for a majority, while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirds supermajority (if all members are sitting and voting).

Graphical summary of national polls

Most election ratings use:

  • Tossup: no advantage
  • Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
  • Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
  • Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
  • Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain

The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.

District CPVI
[1] 		Incumbent Last result[2] Cook
Sep. 6,
2024[3] 		IE
Sep. 26,
2024[4] 		Sabato
Sep. 19,
2024[5] 		ED
Aug. 26,
2024[6] 		CNalysis
Sep. 14,
2024[7] 		DDHQ
Sep. 25,
2024[8] 		Race to the WH
Sep. 25,
2024[9]
Alabama 2 D+4 New seat – Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Solid D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip)
Alaska at-large R+8 Mary Peltola 55.0% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Tilt D
Arizona 1 R+2 David Schweikert 50.4% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup
Arizona 2 R+6 Eli Crane 53.8% R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
Arizona 4 D+2 Greg Stanton 56.1% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D
Arizona 6 R+3 Juan Ciscomani 50.7% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely R Tossup
California 3 R+4 Kevin Kiley 53.6% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R
California 9 D+5 Josh Harder 54.8% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Solid D Likely D Lean D
California 13 D+4 John Duarte 50.2% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tilt D (flip)
California 21 D+9 Jim Costa 54.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Solid D Safe D Safe D
California 22 D+5 David Valadao 51.5% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tossup
California 27 D+4 Mike Garcia 53.2% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tilt D (flip)
California 40 R+2 Young Kim 56.8% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R
California 41 R+3 Ken Calvert 52.3% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tossup Likely R Tossup
California 45 D+2 Michelle Steel 52.4% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup
California 47 D+3 Katie Porter
(retiring) 		51.7% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup Lean D Likely D Tilt D
California 49 D+3 Mike Levin 52.6% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Very Likely D Likely D Likely D
Colorado 3 R+7 Open seat[a] 50.1% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Tossup
Colorado 5 R+9 Doug Lamborn
(retiring) 		56.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Very Likely R Safe R Safe R
Colorado 8 EVEN Yadira Caraveo 48.4% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Tilt D Likely D Lean D
Connecticut 2 D+3 Joe Courtney 58.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D
Connecticut 5 D+3 Jahana Hayes 50.5% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Very Likely D Likely D Lean D
Florida 7 R+5 Cory Mills 58.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Florida 9 D+8 Darren Soto 53.6% D Likely D Solid D Safe D Likely D Solid D Safe D Safe D
Florida 13 R+6 Anna Paulina Luna 53.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R
Florida 15 R+4 Laurel Lee 58.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Very Likely R Safe R Safe R
Florida 23 D+5 Jared Moskowitz 51.6% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Solid D Likely D Safe D
Florida 27 EVEN María Elvira Salazar 57.3% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Lean R
Florida 28 R+2 Carlos A. Giménez 63.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Lean R
Georgia 2 D+3 Sanford Bishop 55.0% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Illinois 17 D+2 Eric Sorensen 51.9% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Indiana 1 D+3 Frank J. Mrvan 52.8% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Iowa 1 R+3 Mariannette Miller-Meeks 53.4% R Lean R Tossup Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Tossup
Iowa 2 R+4 Ashley Hinson 54.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Very Likely R Safe R Safe R
Iowa 3 R+3 Zach Nunn 50.2% R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely R Tilt R
Kansas 2 R+11 Jake LaTurner
(retiring) 		57.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Kansas 3 R+1 Sharice Davids 54.9% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Very Likely D Likely D Likely D
Louisiana 6 D+8 Garret Graves
(retiring) 		80.4% R Solid D (flip) Likely D (flip) Safe D (flip) Safe D (flip) Solid D (flip) Safe D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Maine 2 R+6 Jared Golden 53.1% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup
Maryland 6 D+2 David Trone
(retiring) 		54.7% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Safe D Very Likely D Likely D Tilt D
Michigan 3 D+1 Hillary Scholten 54.9% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Michigan 4 R+5 Bill Huizenga 54.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Very Likely R Safe R Likely R
Michigan 7 R+2 Elissa Slotkin
(retiring) 		51.7% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Michigan 8 R+1 Dan Kildee
(retiring) 		53.1% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tilt D
Michigan 10 R+3 John James 48.8% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Likely R
Minnesota 2 D+1 Angie Craig 50.9% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Very Likely D Likely D Lean D
Missouri 2 R+7 Ann Wagner 54.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Very Likely R Safe R Safe R
Montana 1 R+6 Ryan Zinke 49.6% R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R
Nebraska 2 EVEN Don Bacon 51.3% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup
Nevada 1 D+3 Dina Titus 51.6% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D
Nevada 3 D+1 Susie Lee 52.0% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Nevada 4 D+3 Steven Horsford 52.4% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
New Hampshire 1 EVEN Chris Pappas 54.0% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Very Likely D Likely D Likely D
New Hampshire 2 D+2 Annie Kuster
(retiring) 		55.8% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Very Likely D Likely D Lean D
New Jersey 2 R+5 Jeff Van Drew 58.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R
New Jersey 3 D+5 Andy Kim
(retiring) 		55.5% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D
New Jersey 5 D+4 Josh Gottheimer 54.7% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Solid D Safe D Safe D
New Jersey 7 R+1 Thomas Kean Jr. 51.3% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tilt R
New Jersey 9 D+8 Vacant 54.9% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D
New Mexico 1 D+5 Melanie Stansbury 55.7% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Solid D Safe D Safe D
New Mexico 2 D+1 Gabe Vasquez 50.3% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D
New York 1 R+4[b] Nick LaLota 55.5% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
New York 2 R+4[b] Andrew Garbarino 60.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
New York 3 D+3[b] Tom Suozzi 53.9% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Very Likely D Likely D Likely D
New York 4 D+5[b] Anthony D'Esposito 51.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tilt D (flip)
New York 17 D+3[b] Mike Lawler 50.3% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup
New York 18 D+2[b] Pat Ryan 50.6% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D
New York 19 R+1[b] Marc Molinaro 50.8% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean R Tossup
New York 22 D+3[b] Brandon Williams 50.5% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tilt D (flip)
North Carolina 1 R+1 Don Davis 52.4% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Tilt D
North Carolina 6 R+11 New seat – Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip)
North Carolina 8 R+11 Dan Bishop
(retiring) 		69.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R
North Carolina 10 R+10 Patrick McHenry
(retiring) 		72.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R
North Carolina 11 R+8 Chuck Edwards 53.8% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Solid R Safe R Safe R
North Carolina 13 R+11 Wiley Nickel
(retiring) 		51.6% D Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip)
North Carolina 14 R+11 Jeff Jackson
(retiring) 		57.7% D Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip)
Ohio 1 D+2 Greg Landsman 52.8% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Very Likely D Likely D Likely D
Ohio 9 R+3 Marcy Kaptur 56.6% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Likely D
Ohio 13 R+1 Emilia Sykes 52.7% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D
Oregon 4 D+4 Val Hoyle 50.5% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Oregon 5 D+2 Lori Chavez-DeRemer 50.9% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Oregon 6 D+4 Andrea Salinas 50.0% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Very Likely D Likely D Likely D
Pennsylvania 1 EVEN Brian Fitzpatrick 54.9% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Very Likely R Lean R Likely R
Pennsylvania 7 R+2 Susan Wild 51.0% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tilt D Likely D Lean D
Pennsylvania 8 R+4 Matt Cartwright 51.2% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tilt D
Pennsylvania 10 R+5 Scott Perry 53.8% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Tilt R
Pennsylvania 17 EVEN Chris Deluzio 53.4% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Rhode Island 2 D+4 Seth Magaziner 50.5% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D
South Carolina 1 R+7 Nancy Mace 56.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Very Likely R Safe R Safe R
Tennessee 5 R+9 Andy Ogles 55.8% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
Tennessee 7 R+10 Mark Green 60.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Texas 15 R+1 Monica De La Cruz 53.3% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Texas 28 D+3 Henry Cuellar 56.7% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Very Likely D Likely D Lean D
Texas 34 D+9 Vicente Gonzalez 52.7% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Very Likely D Likely D Likely D
Virginia 1 R+6 Rob Wittman 56.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Virginia 2 R+2 Jen Kiggans 51.6% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R
Virginia 5 R+7 Bob Good
(lost renomination) 		57.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Virginia 7 D+1 Abigail Spanberger
(retiring) 		52.2% D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D
Virginia 10 D+6 Jennifer Wexton
(retiring) 		53.3% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D
Washington 3 R+5 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 50.1% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tilt D
Washington 5 R+8 Cathy McMorris Rodgers
(retiring) 		59.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R
Washington 8 D+1 Kim Schrier 53.3% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Very Likely D Likely D Likely D
Wisconsin 1 R+3 Bryan Steil 54.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Lean R
Wisconsin 3 R+4 Derrick Van Orden 51.8% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R
Wisconsin 8 R+10 Vacant 73.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Solid R Safe R Lean R
Overall D – 203
R – 208
24 tossups 		D – 206
R – 216
13 tossups
 D – 205
R – 211
19 tossups 		D – 207
R – 210
18 tossups
 D – 216
R – 208
11 tossups
 D – 211
R – 215
9 tossups
 D - 215
R - 207
13 tossups

Generic ballot polls

The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2024 House of Representatives elections.

Polling aggregates
Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Democratic Republican Others/
Undecided
[c] 		Lead
RealClearPolitics[10] September 17, 2024 August 15 – September 17, 2024 46.3% 44.3% 9.4% D +2.0%
FiveThirtyEight[11] September 22, 2024 through September 17, 2024 46.7% 44.5% 8.8% D +2.2%
Decision Desk HQ[12] September 20, 2024 through September 17, 2024 47.6% 45.6% 6.8% D +2.0%
Average 46.9% 44.8% 8.3% D +2.1%

Party listings

The two parties' campaign committees (the National Republican Congressional Committee and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) published their own lists of targeted seats.

Republican-held seats

On April 3, 2023, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released their target seat list which included Republican-held seats and open seats.[13]

  1. Arizona 1: David Schweikert
  2. Arizona 6: Juan Ciscomani
  3. California 3: Kevin Kiley
  4. California 13: John Duarte
  5. California 22: David Valadao
  6. California 27: Mike Garcia
  7. California 40: Young Kim
  8. California 41: Ken Calvert
  9. California 45: Michelle Steel
  10. Colorado 3: Open Seat
  11. Florida 13: Anna Paulina Luna
  12. Florida 27: Maria Elvira Salazar
  13. Iowa 1: Mariannette Miller-Meeks
  14. Iowa 3: Zach Nunn
  15. Montana 1: Ryan Zinke
  16. Michigan 10: John James
  17. Nebraska 2: Don Bacon
  18. New Jersey 7: Thomas Kean Jr.
  19. New York 1: Nick LaLota
  20. New York 4: Anthony D'Esposito
  21. New York 17: Mike Lawler
  22. New York 19: Marc Molinaro
  23. New York 22: Brandon Williams
  24. Oregon 5: Lori Chavez-DeRemer
  25. Pennsylvania 1: Brian Fitzpatrick
  26. Pennsylvania 10: Scott Perry
  27. Texas 15: Monica De La Cruz
  28. Virginia 2: Jen Kiggans
  29. Wisconsin 1: Bryan Steil
  30. Wisconsin 3: Derrick Van Orden

Democratic-held seats

On March 13, 2023, the National Republican Congressional Committee released their target seat list which included Democratic-held seats and open seats.[14] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also released its frontline members, which are bolded below, and the ones not bolded are seats targeted by the Republican committee but not in the Democratic committee frontline program:

  1. Alaska At-Large: Mary Peltola
  2. California 9: Josh Harder
  3. California 47: Open Seat
  4. California 49: Mike Levin
  5. Colorado 8: Yadira Caraveo
  6. Connecticut 5: Jahana Hayes
  7. Florida 9: Darren Soto
  8. Illinois 17: Eric Sorensen
  9. Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
  10. Kansas 3: Sharice Davids
  11. Maine 2: Jared Golden
  12. Michigan 3: Hillary Scholten
  13. Michigan 7: Open Seat
  14. Michigan 8: Open Seat
  15. Minnesota 2: Angie Craig
  16. North Carolina 1: Don Davis
  17. North Carolina 13: Open Seat
  18. North Carolina 14: Open Seat
  19. New Hampshire 1: Chris Pappas
  20. New Mexico 2: Gabe Vasquez
  21. Nevada 1: Dina Titus
  22. Nevada 3: Susie Lee
  23. Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
  24. Ohio 1: Greg Landsman
  25. Ohio 9: Marcy Kaptur
  26. Ohio 13: Emilia Sykes
  27. Oregon 4: Val Hoyle
  28. Oregon 6: Andrea Salinas
  29. Pennsylvania 7: Susan Wild
  30. Pennsylvania 8: Matt Cartwright
  31. Pennsylvania 17: Chris Deluzio
  32. Rhode Island 2: Seth Magaziner
  33. Texas 34: Vicente Gonzalez
  34. Virginia 7: Open Seat
  35. Washington 3: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
  36. Washington 8: Kim Schrier

References

  1. ^ "2022 Cook PVI: District Map and List". Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 7, 2022.
  2. ^ "House of Representatives Results: GOP wins the majority". CNN. Retrieved February 2, 2023.
  3. ^ "2024 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
  4. ^ "2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. September 26, 2024.
  5. ^ "2024 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. September 19, 2024.
  6. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  7. ^ "'24 House Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 19, 2023.
  8. ^ "2024 House Forecast | The Hill and DDHQ". The Hill. Retrieved September 26, 2024.
  9. ^ https://www.racetothewh.com/house
  10. ^ RealClearPolitics
  11. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  12. ^ DDHQ/The Hill
  13. ^ RRobinson@DCCC.ORG (April 3, 2023). "DCCC Announces 2023-2024 Districts In Play". Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Retrieved July 15, 2023.
  14. ^ "NRCC Announces 37 Offensive Pick-Up Opportunities to Grow GOP House Majority". NRCC. March 13, 2023. Retrieved July 15, 2023.

Notes

  1. ^ Incumbent Republican Lauren Boebert is running in Colorado's 4th congressional district.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h A new congressional map was enacted in February 2024, after the most recent publication of the Cook PVI.[citation needed]
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other parties combined.
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